Wave model predictions in the Black Sea: Sensitivity to wind fields

This paper evaluates the impact of using different wind field products on the performance of the third generation wave model SWAN in the Black Sea and its capability for predicting both normal and extreme wave conditions during 1996. Wind data were obtained from NCEP CFSR, NASA MERRA, JRA-25, ECMWF Operational, ECMWF ERA40, and ECMWF ERA-Interim. Wave data were obtained in 1996 at three locations in the Black Sea within the NATO TU-WAVES project. The quality of wind fields was assessed by comparing them with satellite data. These wind data were used as forcing fields for the generation of wind waves. Time series of predicted significant wave height (H_mo), mean wave period (T_m02), and mean wave direction (DIR) were compared with observations at three offshore buoys in the Black Sea and its performance was quantified in terms of statistical parameters. In addition, wave model performance in terms of significant wave height was also assessed by comparing them against satellite data.The main scope of this work is the impact of the different available wind field products on the wave hindcast performance. In addition, the sensitivity of wave model forecasts due to variations in spatial and temporal resolutions of the wind field products was investigated. Finally, the impact of using various wind field products on predicting extreme wave events was analyzed by focussing on storm peaks and on an individual storm event in October 1996. The numerical results revealed that the CFSR winds are more suitable in comparison with the others for modelling both normal and extreme events in the Black Sea. The results also show that wave model output is critically sensitive to the choice of the wind field product, such that the quality of the wind fields is reflected in the quality of the wave predictions. A finer wind spatial resolution leads to an improvement of the wave model predictions, while a finer temporal resolution in the wind fields generally does not significantly improve agreement between observed and simulated wave data.     

Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of waves in the Indian Ocean based on ERA-40 wave reanalysis

Based on the 45-year (09/1957-08/2008) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA-40) wave reanalysis dataset, this study analyzes interannual and interdecadal variabilities and intraseasonal oscillations of sea surface wind speed (WS), wind sea wave height (H^w), swell wave height (H^s) and significant wave height (H_s) in the Roaring Forties and tropical waters of the Indian Ocean, to determine swell propagation characteristics. The results show: (1) monthly variabilities of H^s in the Roaring Forties are in good agreement with those in tropical waters of the Indian Ocean; swell plays a dominant role in mixed waves throughout most of the Indian Ocean; and WS, H^w, H^s, and H_s exhibit a significant increasing trend over the 45-year study period. (2) H^s in the Roaring Forties and tropical waters of the Indian Ocean share a common period of 9.8–10.4 years on an interdecadal scale; and WS and H^s in the Roaring Forties and H^s in the tropical waters of the Indian Ocean share a common period of approximately 8 days (weekly oscillation) on an intraseasonal scale. (3) Swell of the Roaring Forties needs approximately 30 h to fully respond to the wind in this region. Approximately 84 h are required for H^s to propagate from the Roaring Forties to the tropical waters of the south Indian Ocean, while it takes approximately 132–138 h for H^s to propagate from the Roaring Forties to the tropical waters of the north Indian Ocean.     

Modeling of El Niño events using a simple model

In this paper, we present the results of modeling of El Niño events using a simple model of a classical oscillator with decay under external forcing. The sea surface temperature in the East Pacific and the mean thermocline depth in the Equatorial Pacific correspond to the roles of the momentum and position, respectively. The external forcing of the system is determined by two factors: the short-period meridional mass fluctuations in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean due to the joint effect of the atmospheric variability over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, bottom topography, and coastlines; and the variability of western winds in the tropics. Under such conditions, oscillations of El Niño type arise in the model as a result of propagation of signals generated in the Southern Ocean (due to the fluctuations of meridional transport fluxes and the variability of western winds in the tropics). These signals propagate over the Equatorial Pacific as fast wave processes. It is shown that external forcing is the main factor in establishing the oscillation pattern of the model characteristics variability.     

Prediction of significant wave height using regressive support vector machines

Wave parameters prediction is an important issue in coastal and offshore engineering. In this literature, several models and methods are introduced. In the recent years, the well-known soft computing approaches, such as artificial neural networks, fuzzy and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems and etc., have been known as novel methods to form intelligent systems, these approaches has also been used to predict wave parameters, as well. It is not a long time that support vector machine (SVM) is introduced as a strong machine learning and data mining tool. In this paper, it is used to predict significant wave height (H_s). The data set used in this study comprises wave wind data gathered from deep water locations in Lake Michigan. Current wind speed (u) and those belonging up to six previous hours are given as input variables, while the significant wave height is the output parameter. The SVM results are compared with those of artificial neural networks, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) models. The results show that SVM can be successfully used for prediction of H_s. Furthermore, comparisons indicate that the error statistics of SVM model marginally outperforms ANN even with much less computational time required.     

X-波段雷达近海海浪频谱反演的神经网络模型

X-波段雷达作为国内海浪观测的一种新工具,在海浪频谱获取和有效波高反演方面仍存在较多问题.本文利用非线性回归方法,将现场实测浮标数据频谱和雷达一维图像谱分别与标准频谱模型进行拟合,发现浮标频谱和一维图像谱具有标准频谱的特征,能够较准确地获取相应的谱参数.提出了建立由雷达一维图像谱参数反演海浪频谱参数的神经网络模型,同时在模型中加入影像序列信噪比,进而反演有效波高,并将反演结果与现场实测数据和传统算法(建立影像序列信噪比与有效波高之间的线性回归方程)进行了对比,结果表明,获取谱参数的误差和反演有效波高的平均误差在20％以内,而传统算法计算有效波高平均误差在20％以上.     

随机波浪中畸形波在三维岛礁地形上的试验研究

在试验水池中,开展了波浪在岛礁地形上演化问题的研究。首先在实验水池中建立了西太平洋某岛礁地形的模型,然后采用改进的JONSWAP谱,由造波机产生不同周期、波高的随机波浪。试验中观察到了不同类型畸形波生成的过程及不同波面形态的畸形波。对偏度、峰度及水深与畸形波要素H_m/H_s（H_m表示波列中的最大波高, H_s为有效波高）的关系进行了详细的分析,同时,对畸形波波高H_fr与偏度的关也进行了分析。通过对试验结果分析,发现峰度与畸形波要素i>H_m/H_s呈正相关, H_fr增大时相应的偏度也会呈现增大的趋势。此外,水深的变化剧烈时（如斜坡、海山位置）有助于畸形波的发生。     

A note on the joint distribution of wave height and period during the growth phase of a storm

In this note the effect of changes in sea-state, as measured by the significant wave heigh H_s, on the joint distribution of individual wave height and period are considered. Wave data, obtained from a Waverider buoy during the growth phase of a storm, are used in the analysis. It is found that, by correctly scaling the individual heights and periods, the form of the joint distribution does not depend on H_s, but is dependent on the bandwidth of the spectrum. The results obtained also give some indication of the period of individual, high zero-upcrossing waves.     

Evaluation of two WAM white capping parameterizations using parallel unstructured SWAN with application to the Northern Gulf of Mexico, USA

The performance of two well accepted formulations for white capping and wind input of third generation wave models, viz., WAM-3 and WAM-4, were investigated using parallel unstructured SWAN (PunSWAN). Several alternative formulations were also considered to evaluate the effects of higher order steepness and wave number terms in white capping formulations. Distinct model configurations were calibrated and validated against available in situ measurements from the Gulf of Mexico. The results showed that some of the in situ calibrated models outperform the saturation level calibrated models in reproducing the idealized wave growth curves. The simulation results also revealed that increasing the power of the steepness term can enhance the accuracy of significant wave height (H_s), at the expense of a higher bias for large waves. It also has negative effects on mean wave period (T_a) and peak wave period (T_p). It is also demonstrated that the use of the quadratic wave number term in the WAM-3 formulation, instead of the existing linear term, ameliorates the T_a underestimation; however, it results in the model being unable to reach any saturation level. In addition, unlike H_s and T_p, it has been shown that T_a is sensitive to the use of the higher order WAM-4 formulation, and the bias is decreased over a wide range of wave periods. However, it also increases the scatter index (SI) of simulated T_a. It is concluded that the use of the WAM-4 wind input formulation in conjunction with the WAM-3 dissipation form, is the most successful case in reproducing idealized wave growth curves while avoiding T_a underestimation of WAM-3 and a potential spurious bimodal spectrum of WAM-4; consequently, this designates another perspective to improve the overall performance of third generation wave models.     

Trade-wind waves and mud dynamics on the French Guiana coast,South America: Input from ERA-40 wave data and field investigations

The South American coast between Brazil and Venezuela is affected by longshore migrating mud banks derived from the fine-grained Amazon sediment discharge. Onshore mud migration prevails over shallow ‘bank’ areas alternating alongshore with deeper ‘inter-bank’ areas. The transport on the inner shelf, and attachment to the shoreline, of this migrating mud has been attributed mainly to wind waves. However, the lack of in situ data on waves hampers understanding of the relationship between waves and mud dynamics. A 44-yr record (1960–2004) of the ERA-40 wave dataset generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used, in conjunction with field investigations in French Guiana, to define both event-scale and longer-term patterns of mud mobilisation induced by waves. The ratio H₀³ / T², combining wave height H and period T, and the angle of wave incidence α, were singled out as the most relevant parameters for describing wave forcing. Typical ‘bank’ and ‘inter-bank’ profiles and corresponding mud densities, and a 3-month record of changes in the thickness of the fluid mud layer in an estuarine navigation channel were monitored by echo-sounding from October 2002 to January 2003. An 80-day record of bed-level changes in the intertidal zone was obtained from August to November 2004 using a pressure transducer. The results on the wave regime of French Guiana confirm a distinctly seasonal pattern, and highlight an increase in H₀³ / T² over the 44-yr period related to an increase in trade-wind velocities determined from corresponding trends in Atlantic wind pseudo-stress off the South American coast. Wave forcing over bank areas leads to the liquefaction of a 1–3 m-thick layer of mud that is transported onshore (and alongshore by the longshore component of wave energy). The episodic nature of high wave energy events generally results in the formation of mud bar features from the shoreward mobilisation of gel-like fluid mud. The effect of waves on mud is particularly marked following long periods of low energy, and especially at the onset of the high wave energy season (October to May), when even moderate wave energy events can lead to significant mobilisation of mud.Significant phases of increased wave energy are attended by higher long-term (annual) rates of longshore mud bank migration but the correlation is rather poor between the wave forcing parameter H₀³ / T² and migration rates because stronger wave forcing is generally associated with low angles of wave incidence. This suggests a complementary role of other hydrodynamic mechanisms, such as geostrophic and tidal currents, in longshore mud bank migration.     

Megacusps on rip channel bathymetry: Observations and modeling

The formation of beach megacusps along the shoreline of southern Monterey Bay, CA, is investigated using time-averaged video and simulated with XBeach, a recently developed coastal sediment transport model. Investigations focus on the hydrodynamic role played by the bay's ever-present rip channels. A review of four years of video and wave data from Sand City, CA, indicates that megacusps most often form shoreward of rip channels under larger waves (significant wave height (H_s) = 1.5–2.0 m). However, they also occasionally appear shoreward of shoals when waves are smaller (H_s ~ 1 m) and the mean water level is higher on the beach. After calibration to the Sand City site, XBeach is shown to hindcast measured shoreline change moderately well (skill = 0.41) but to overpredict the erosion of the swash region and beach face. Simulations with small to moderate waves (H_s = 0.5–1.2 m) suggest, similar to field data, that megacusps will form shoreward of either rip channels or shoals, depending on mean daily water level and pre-existing beach shape. A frequency-based analysis of sediment transport forcing is performed, decomposing transport processes to the mean, infragravity, and very-low-frequency (VLF) contributions for two highlighted cases. Results indicate that the mean flow plays the dominant role in both types of megacusp formation, but that VLF oscillations in sediment concentration and advective flow are also significant.     

Haeundae Beach in Korea: Seasonal-to-decadal wave statistics and impulsive beach responses to typhoons

Haeundae Beach represents Korean pocket beaches that are currently erosional and dominated by summertime typhoons. The decadal wave characteristics 9 km offshore of Haeundae Beach were analyzed using the WAM model that was validated through the 2007 wave observations. The wave statistics modelled for 1979–2007 indicates that the seasonal mean significant wave height (H _s ) is highest (0.6–0.7 m) in summer due to typhoons, in contrast to the lowest (around 0.5 m) autumn analog. The wave direction is also pronouncedly seasonal with the principal bearings of SSW and NE in the summer and winter seasons, respectively. The WAM results additionally show that the H _s has gradually increased over the region of Haeundae Beach since 1993. Beach profiling during June–November 2014 shows the opposite processes of the typhoon and fair-weather on beach sands. During a typhoon, foreshore sands were eroded and then accumulated as sand bars on the surf zone. In the subsequent fair-weather, the sand bars moved back to the beach resulting in the surf-zone erosion and foreshore accretion. A total of 5 cycles of these beach-wide sand movements yielded a net retreat (up to 20 m) of the shoreline associated with large foreshore erosion. However, the surf zone only slightly accumulated as a result of the sand cycles. This was attributed to the sand escape offshore from the westernmost tip of the beach. The present study may provide an important clue to understanding the erosional processes in Haeundae Beach.     

Wind-generated waves in Hurricane Juan

We present numerical simulations of the ocean surface waves generated by hurricane Juan in 2003 as it reached its mature stage (travelling from deep waters off Bermuda to Nova Scotia and making landfall near Halifax) using SWAN (v.40.31) nested within WAVEWATCH-III (v.2.22; denoted WW3) wave models, implemented on multiple-nested domains. As for all storm-wave simulations, spectral wave development is highly dependent on accurate simulations of storm winds during its life cycle. Due to Juan’s rapid translation speed (accelerating from 2.28 m s⁻¹ on 27 September, 1200 UTC to 20 m s⁻¹ on 29 September, 1200 UTC), an interpolation method is developed to blend observed hurricane winds with numerical weather prediction (NWP) model winds accurately. Wave model results are compared to in situ surface buoys and ADCP wave data along Juan’s track. At landfall, Juan’s maximum waves are mainly swell-dominated and peak waves lag the occurrence of the maximum winds. We explore the influence of surface waves on the wind and show that the accuracy of the wave simulation is enhanced by introducing swell and Stokes drift feedback mechanisms to modify the winds, and by limiting the peak drag coefficient under high wind conditions, in accordance with recent theoretical and experimental results.     

Effective fetch and non-linear four-wave interactions during wave growth in slanting fetch conditions

Wave growth in slanting fetch (with wind blowing obliquely off a coast) is investigated with 7 years worth of routine wave measurements in Lake IJssel in The Netherlands and with the SWAN wave model. Two aspects are considered in particular for this case: the validity of the concept of effective fetch and the role of the non-linear four-wave interactions. For slanting and parallel fetch conditions, we found some significant deviations from the effective fetch assumption, leading to 20–35% mismatch in either the peak period T_p or the significant wave height H_m0 respectively. However, the effect of discrepancies between various widely accepted wave growth formulas turned out to be even more important. The wave directions during slanting fetch are significantly ‘steered’ by the coastline, especially in the first kilometre(s) off the coast. The role of the non-linear four-wave interactions is investigated by running the SWAN (version 40.41) wave model with three different quadruplet formulations. Exact quadruplet methods (Xnl) yielded relatively strong wave steering, despite the four-wave interactions being relatively weak. Application of Xnl did not lead to better overall agreement with measurements — improvements for the mean wave period T_m01 were offset by some deterioration for the wave height H_m0.     

Decadal variability in an OGCM Southern Ocean: Intrinsic modes,forced modes and metastable states

An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to identify a Southern Ocean southeast Pacific intrinsic mode of low frequency variability. Using CORE data a comprehensive suite of experiments were carried out to elucidate excitation and amplification responses of this intrinsic mode to low frequency forcing (ENSO, SAM) and stochastic forcing due to high frequency winds. Subsurface anomalies were found to teleconnect the Pacific and Atlantic regions of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) thermocline. The Pacific region of the ACC is characterised by intrinsic baroclinic disturbances that respond to both SAM and ENSO, while the Atlantic sector of the ACC is sensitive to higher frequency winds that act to amplify thermocline anomalies propagating downstream from the Pacific. Non-stationary cluster analysis was used to identify the system’s dynamical regimes and characterise meta-stability, persistence and transitions between the respective states. This analysis reveals significant trends, indicating fundamental changes to the meta-stability of the ocean dynamics in response to changes in atmospheric forcing. Intrinsic variability in sea-ice concentration was found to be coupled to thermocline processes. Sea-ice variability localised in the Atlantic was most closely associated with high frequency weather forcing. The SAM was associated with a circumpolar sea-ice response whereas ENSO was found to be a major driver of sea-ice variability only in the Pacific. This simulation study identifies plausible mechanisms that determine the predictability of the Southern Ocean climate on multi-decadal timescales.     

Wave climate off northern Norway

The wave climate off northern Norway is considered and the investigation is based on wave measurements made at Tromsøflaket by means of a waverider buoy during the years 1977–1981. Data quality of waverider measurements is briefly commented upon; however, more emphasis is given to an evaluation of the long-term representativity of the actual measuring period and to a procedure accounting approximately for a lack of representativity. The wave climate is presented in terms of a smoothed joint probability density function of the significant wave height, H_s, and the spectral peak period, T_p. Based on this distribution a consistent design curve in the H_s, T_p space is established.     

Examination of wind-wave interaction source term in WAVEWATCH III with tropical cyclone wind forcing

Results of drag coefficient(CD) from field observations and laboratory wave tank experiments indicate that the operational wave model can overestimate wind energy input under high wind conditions. The wind-wave interaction source term in WAVEWATCH Ⅲ has been modified to examine its behavior with tropical cyclone wind forcing. Using high resolution wind input,numerical experiments under idealized wind field and tropical cyclone Bonnie(1998) were designed to evaluate performance of the modified models. Both experiments indicate that the modified models with reduced CD significantly decrease wind energy input into the wave model and then simulate lower significant wave height(SWH) than the original model. However,the effects on spatial distribution of SWH,mean wavelength,mean wave direction,and directional wave spectra are insignificant. Due to the reduced wind energy input,the idealized experiment shows that the modified models simulate lower SWH than the original model in all four quadrants. The decrease in the front quadrants is significantly larger than that in the rear quadrants;it is larger under higher winds than lower winds. The realistic experiment on tropical cyclone Bonnie shows that the modified model with the various downward trends of CD in high winds creates a simulation that agrees best with scanning radar altimeter observations.     

The Rossby wave as a key mechanism of Indian Ocean climate variability

We analyze the time-longitude structure of composite cases from model-assimilated ocean data in the period 1958–1998, following on from earlier work by Huang and Kinter (J. Geophys. Res. 107(C11) (2002) 3199) that studied east–west thermocline variability in the Indian Ocean. Our analysis focuses on the Rossby wave signal along the thermocline ridge in the tropical SW Indian Ocean (10°S, 60–80°E), where wind stress curl is important. Anomalous winds in the equatorial east Indian Ocean force successive Rossby waves westward at speeds of 0.1 m s⁻¹±30%. With a wavelength of 7000 km, the period of oscillation is in the range 1.9–5.2 years. The Indian Ocean Rossby wave is partially resonant with the global influence of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, except during quasi-biennial rhythm. The presence of the Rossby wave offers potential predictability for east–west atmospheric circulation systems and climate that affect resources in countries surrounding the Indian Ocean.     

Prediction of safe sea-state using finite element method and artificial neural networks

This article proposes a predictive method for identifying the range of sea-states considered safe for the installation of offshore structures. A finite element dynamic analysis of the system for various sea-states characterized by significant wave heights and mean zero-up-crossing wave periods and modeled as a combination of several wave components has been performed. Using this procedure a table of safe and unsafe sea-states is generated. The significant wave height (H_s) and mean zero-up-crossing wave period (T_z) of a future sea-state in a location in the north east Pacific were predicted from the distributions whose parameters were estimated using the artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained for this purpose. The location of US National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) Buoy 46005 is used in this study.The H_s and T_z of some future sea-states were predicted from their corresponding conditional 7-parameter distribution given some information including a number of previously measured H_s’s and T_z’s. This gives a predicted sea-state for a specific time in future. The parameters of the distributions have been estimated from the outputs of two different 7-network sets of trained ANNs. A pile-driving operation is used as a case study in which the pile configuration, including the non-linear foundation and the gap between the pile and the pile sleeve shims, has been modeled by the finite elements method and the range of sea-states suitable for safe pile-driving operation was identified.     

Modelling and observations of tidal wave propagation, circulation and residence times in Puttalam Lagoon, Sri Lanka

Tidal measurements and a depth-averaged 2D model are used to examine wave progression and circulation in a long, shallow, micro-tidal lagoon in Sri Lanka. Ranges and phase lags for different tidal constituents are used to calibrate the model. A single drag coefficient, C_d = 0.0032, gives almost perfect agreement with data. Current measurements are used for validation of the model. The lagoon tide consists of a combination of progressive and standing waves, where progressive waves dominate in the outer part and standing waves in the inner. A Lagrangian based particle-tracking method is developed to study tidally and wind induced residence times. If tides were the only factor affecting the residual circulation, the residence time inside the narrowest section would be approximately 100 days. Steady winds (of typical monsoon average) decrease the residence times to 60–90 days. Estuarine forcing due to net freshwater supply is not modelled (due to lack of reliable runoff data), but independent, long-term salinity observations and calculations based on volume and salt conservation during periods of negligible freshwater supply (the lagoon is seasonally hypersaline) indicate residence times ranging from 40 to 80 days. Model derived residence times based on tides alone represent a minimum exchange. Even weak forcing, through winds, excess evaporation or freshwater supply efficiently reduces residence times.