Site response study in Abruzzo (Central Italy): underground array versus surface stations

In this site response study we examined local earthquakes recorded at surface stations of a local seismic network and at a temporary underground seismic array installed in a tunnel underneath the Gran Sasso Massif in Abruzzo (central Italy). This allowed us to compare the seismic site response beneath the mountain and on the surface in similar geological environment (soft rock sites). We applied spectral ratios method on different segments of the seismograms and used different reference spectra in the 1–20 Hz frequency band. We found little or no amplification effects at most of the surface stations whereas site transfer functions evaluated with respect to underground sites show an amplification factor up to 6 in the 1–8 Hz frequency range. Coda spectral ratios estimated at soft rock sites are confirmed as good estimates of shear wave transfer function.     

Time variations of the relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation and European winter temperature and precipitation

The degree of stationarity of relationships between the NAO index and long European temperature and precipitation series in winter is quantified by running correlations with a time window of 31 years at 29 and 27 stations in Europe, respectively. They indicate major nonstationarities in the NAO-to-surface climate relationships at most stations. The temporal course most common for correlations with temperature is a slight change prior to about 1950, followed by an increase; for precipitation, a typical course is a decrease in the first half of the 20^th century, followed by an increase. The temporal variations in correlations do not result from the presence of trends in the time series. The periods of high correlations with temperature are accompanied with an eastward shift of both NAO action centres; the eastward shift is thus at least partly responsible for the time variations in correlations. huth@ufa.cas.cz     

Geomagnetic activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the prominent pattern of winter climate variability that has a strong effect on weather in the North Atlantic region and the adjacent continents. At present, uncertainty prevails as to the mechanisms controlling the variability of the NAO. It is also difficult to explain why the positive phase of the NAO has prevailed over the past 37 years (1972–2008). We found high positive correlation coefficients between geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind intensity) and the NAO indices that equal 0.76 for 1962–1994 and 0.63 for 1961–2011. Positive correlations of the distribution of surface air temperature with the NAO and similarly with geomagnetic activity occur in the Northern Hemisphere. These results encourage our search for possible causes controlling the NAO. We have found that at times of high geomagnetic activity the NAO index is positive and magnetic reconnection may enable the solar wind to initiate downward winds in the magnetosphere. Wind anomalies originate at the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex and propagate downward through the troposphere taking part in the intensification of the vortex and of the westerlies. Stronger northerly winds over Greenland carry cold air southward and, together with the enhanced westerlies, advect the warm air from the Atlantic along the deep Icelandic low into Eurasia increasing temperatures there. On the other hand, at times of low geomagnetic activity, the NAO index is negative and the stratospheric polar vortex is weak. Warm air from the subtropics is carried into the Arctic and a rapid amplification of planetary waves propagating upward may cause displacement or even splitting of the weak vortex and sudden stratospheric warming. During this negative NAO phase the weakened westerlies allow more cold air to build up over North America and Eurasia.     

Effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Thermal Characteristics of Lakes in Poland

This paper presents the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the thermal characteristics of lakes in Poland. In the analysis, the use was made of monthly air temperatures recorded at fifteen meteorological stations, water temperatures of twelve lakes, and Hurrell’s winter NAO indices. Over the study period (1971–2010), there was a marked increase in the temperatures of both, air and lake waters. Depending on the NAO phase, water temperatures were observed to depart from mean values, being markedly higher than average (even by 1°C) in the positive winter NAO phase. The differences in water temperatures were statistically significant in the winter-spring season. In turn, in the negative NAODJFM phase lake water temperatures in winter and spring were markedly lower than average (in March even by 1.0°C). The unique response of some lakes depends on their morphometric parameters, including their mean depth.     

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on streamflow in Western Iran

The Middle East region, where arid and semi‐arid regions occupy most of the land, is extremely vulnerable to any natural or anthropogenic reductions in available water resources. Much of the observed interannual‐decadal variability in Middle Eastern streamflow is physically linked to a large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this work, the relationship between the NAO index and the seasonal and annual streamflows in the west of Iran was statistically examined during the last four decades. The correlations were constructed for two scenarios (with and without time lag). The associations between the annual and seasonal streamflows and the simultaneous NAO index were found to be poor and insignificant. The possibility of streamflow forecasting was also explored, and the results of lag correlations revealed that streamflow responses at the NAO signal with two and three seasons delays. The highest Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.379 was found between the spring NAO index and the autumn streamflow series at Taghsimab station, indicating that roughly 14% of the variance in the streamflow series is associated with NAO forcing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Holocene annual growth in three Alpine stalagmites records the influence of solar activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter climate

Annual growth rates and the ratio of dark to light-colored calcite within single annual laminae in three contemporaneously deposited Holocene speleothems from Grotta di Ernesto, an Alpine cave in northern Italy, respond to changes in surface temperature rather than precipitation. Based on monitoring of present-day calcite growth, and correlation with instrumental data for surface climatic conditions, we interpret a higher ratio of dark to light-colored calcite and the simultaneous thinning of annual laminae as indicative of colder-than-present winters. Such dark and thin laminae occur in those parts of the three stalagmites deposited from AD 1650 to 1713 and from AD 1798 to 1840, as reconstructed through lamina counting. These periods correspond to the well-known Maunder and Dalton Minima of solar activity. An 11-yr cyclicity in growth rate, coupled with reduced calcite deposition during the historic minima of solar activity, is indicative of a solar influence on lamina thickness. Spectral analysis of the lamina thickness data also suggests that the North Atlantic Oscillation variability influenced winter temperatures. Based on the present-day controls on cave calcite formation, we infer that high-frequency changes in solar activity modulated the seasonal duration of soil CO₂ production.     

A detailed analysis of two seismic sequences in Abruzzo, Central Apennines, Italy

A three-component digital seismic network has been installed along central Apennines since the end of 1991. Two seismic sequences having main shocks of magnitudes 3.9 and 3.7 were recorded in August 1992 and June 1994, respectively. A detailed analysis of these sequences, including multiplet relocation, fault-plane solutions and source parameter estimation, is performed in the present paper. A correlation analysis allowed us to recognize a number of correlated events in the two sequences which were used for relative locations using a master event technique. This analysis allowed to obtain a better alignment of epicentral data along two almost orthogonal directions, following an Apenninic and an anti-Apenninic trend. For the two sequences, fault-plane solutions were evaluated by using a first arrival technique, resulting in mechanisms with predominant normal faulting for the 1992 and 1994 swarms. S-wave polarization analysis allowed to check the stability of the previous solutions and to reduce their range of uncertainty. The same technique was also applied to derive the composite fault-plane solutions from the aftershocks, resulting in solutions which are in good agreement with those derived from the main shocks of both sequences. Source parameters were then derived from the three-component records of 28 well-recorded events with seismic moment in the range 8.5 × 10¹⁰–1.0 × 10¹⁴ Nm. Stress drops ranged in the interval 0.3–52.3 bar and source radii were of the order of 100 m. Their scaling relations are in good agreement with other results derived from the analysis of other Italian earthquakes that occurred in regions of predominantly normal faulting tectonics (Apennines and Calabrian arc).     

Aquifer-induced Seismicity in the Central Apennines (Italy)

—The Gran Sasso chain (Central Apennines, Italy) contains one of the largest aquifers of Central Italy. From 1970–1986 the massif was tunnelled through in order to build up a highway and an international underground laboratory for nuclear physics research. These works have strongly modified the hydrogeological situation of the chain, as shown by the decrease in flow rate that occurred in many springs located at the border of the carbonatic structure, along the boundary between the permeable limestone of the massif and the surrounding aquicludes. The analysis of the seismicity (M≥ 3.0) that occurred in the Gran Sasso area from 1956 to 1995 suggests that after the tunnelling works both the number of earthquakes has increased and epicenters have migrated, gathering at the northwestern border zone. The foremost events which occurred in this zone in recent years took place on May 5, 1992 (M = 3.1), August 25, 1992 (M = 3.9) and March 13, 1994 (M = 3.5). The flow rate data of four springs and water level data of an underground karst pool located at the border of the carbonatic structure of the massif show clear anomalies before the occurrence of the quoted earthquakes. Regardless, these anomalies can be explained by the rapid melting of the thick mantle of snow on the Gran Sasso chain, due to sudden increases of mean temperatures. In this paper we present and discuss the possibility that the quoted earthquakes are induced by the irregular variations of the Gran Sasso aquifer, evidenced by the quoted anomalies in the flow rate and water level.     

The dependence of UK extreme sea levels and storm surges on the North Atlantic Oscillation

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in effecting changes in winter extreme high and low waters and storm surges in UK waters has been investigated with the use of a depth-averaged tide+surge numerical model. Spatial patterns of correlation of extreme high and low waters (extreme still water sea levels) with the NAO index are similar to those of median or mean sea level studied previously. Explanations for the similarities, and for differences where they occur, are proposed. Spatial patterns of correlations of extreme high and low and median surge with the NAO index are similar to the corresponding extreme sea-level patterns. Suggestions are made as to which properties of surges (frequency, duration, magnitude) are linked most closely to NAO variability. Several climate models suggest higher (more positive) average values of NAO index during the next 100 years. However, the impact on the UK coastline in terms of increased flood risk should be low (aside from other consequences of climate change such as a global sea-level rise) if the existing relationships between extreme high waters and NAO index are maintained.     

Asthenospheric percolation of alkaline melts beneath the St. Paul region (Central Atlantic Ocean)

Two peridotite suites collected by submersible in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean (Hekinian et al., 2000) were studied for textures, modes, and in situ major and trace element compositions in pyroxenes. Dive SP12 runs along the immersed flank of the St. Peter and Paul Rocks islets where amphibole-bearing, ultramafic mylonites enriched in alkalies and incompatible elements are exposed (Roden et al., 1984), whereas dive SP03 sampled a small intra-transform spreading centre situated about 370 km east of the St. Peter and Paul Rocks. Both suites are characterized by undeformed, coarse-grained granular textures typical of abyssal peridotites, derived from residual mantle after ～ 15% melting of a DMM source, starting in the garnet stability field. Trace element modelling, textures and lack of mineral zoning indicate that the residual peridotites were percolated, reacted and refertilized by ～ 2.6% partially aggregated melts in the uppermost level of the melting region. This relatively large amount of refertilization is in agreement with the cold and thick lithosphere inferred by previous studies. Freezing of trapped melts occurred as the peridotite entered the conductive layer, resulting in late-stage crystallization of olivine, clinopyroxene, spinel, ± plagioclase. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns in clinopyroxenes from SP03 indicate that they last equilibrated with (ultra-) depleted partial melts. In contrast, REE concentrations in clinopyroxenes from SP12 display U and S shaped LREE-enriched patterns and the calculated compositions of the impregnating melts span the compositional range of the regional basalts, which vary from normal MORB to alkali basalt sometimes modified by chromatographic fractionation with no, or very limited, mineral reaction. Thus the mylonitic band forming the St. Peter and St. Paul Rocks ridge is not a fragment of subcontinental lithospheric mantle left behind during the opening of the Central Atlantic, nor the source of the alkaline basalts as previously suggested. Rather, dive SP12 sampled residual peridotites of normal MORB mantle that were located close to channels transporting alkali basalts. Reacted melts escaping from these channels, infiltrated, and locally equilibrated with, the peridotite matrix by ion exchange reactions. Relicts of the source of the alkaline basalts were not sampled but our study suggests that it was a component of the MORB mantle underlying the St. Paul region.     

Climate change impacts on runoff in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia)

The main freshwater source of arid/semi-arid Central Asia is stored in its high mountain glaciers. Water for the downstream countries is mainly supplied through the Syrdarya River that originates at the confluence of the Naryn and Karadarya rivers in the Ferghana Valley. Runoff generation from glaciers plays a crucial role, although a considerable number of small tributaries supply the river with additional runoff from snowmelt and rain in the mountains surrounding the Ferghana Valley. Observations of rising air temperature and accelerated glacier shrinkage make it most likely that the relative contributions of the smaller tributaries will increase. Hitherto, assessments of climate change effects on the water resource availability have largely neglected the growing importance of the runoff from smaller tributaries. We used a dynamically downscaled A1B SRES scenario for climate change effects for the period 2071–2100 in relation to the reference period of 1971–2000 and a version of the conceptual hydrological Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning model (HBV-light) to estimate runoff contributions with particular respect to the small tributaries. The simulations showed a 12–42% decrease in summer runoff; and a 44–107% increase in winter-spring runoff. This indicates the hydrological regime is shifting towards a runoff from snowmelt earlier in the year. The study suggests that actions for climate change adaptation should be complemented by land management configured to secure optimal runoff supplement from the smaller catchments.     

南太平洋和北太平洋年代际振荡与华北盛夏降水的关系及可能物理机制

利用降水、大气环流和海表温度等多种再分析资料和偏相关方法,研究了1951—2007年南太平洋年代际振荡（SPDO）和北太平洋年代际振荡（即PDO,本文称为NPDO）分别与华北盛夏（7—8月）降水在年代际时间尺度上的关系及其可能物理机制.结果表明：在去除SPDO和NPDO的相关性之前,它们与华北盛夏降水的关系均偏弱;但在去除两者相关性之后,SPDO（NPDO）与华北盛夏降水存在显著正（负）相关关系.去除两者相关性之后,当SPDO处于正位相时,热带西北太平洋海温异常显著偏暖,这将在对流层中下层从热带西太平洋—东亚沿岸激发出"气旋-反气旋-气旋"的负位相东亚—太平洋型遥相关（EAP）波列,该波列导致东亚夏季风异常增强,有利于低纬地区水汽输送至华北地区,从而使得华北盛夏降水异常偏多,反之,当SPDO处于负位相时,华北盛夏降水异常将偏少;对NPDO来说,当其处于正位相时,不仅热带西北太平洋异常显著偏冷,而且印度洋大部分海温异常显著偏暖,在两者共同作用下,对流层中下层从热带西太平洋—东亚沿岸出现"反气旋-气旋-反气旋"的正位相EAP波列,这将引起东亚夏季风异常减弱,不利于低纬地区水汽输送至华北地区,华北盛夏降水异常因此减少,反之,当NPDO处于负位相时,华北盛夏降水异常将偏多.     

Relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and temperatures in Europe in global climate models

The study evaluates relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and winter temperatures (including indices of extremes) over Europe in an ensemble of transient simulations of current global climate models (GCMs). We focus on identification of areas in which the NAO index is linked to winter temperatures and temperature extremes in simulations of the recent climate (1961–2000), and evaluate how these relationships change in climate change scenarios for the late 21st century (2071–2100). Most GCMs are able to reproduce main features of the observed links. The NAO index is more important for cold than warm extremes, which is also reproduced by the GCMs. However, all GCMs underestimate the magnitude of the NAO influence on cold extremes when averaged over northern and western Europe. For future scenarios, the links between the NAO and temperatures are mostly analogous to those in the recent climate, except for one GCM (CM3) in which the influence of the NAO on temperature almost disappears over whole Europe. This suggests that future scenarios from this particular GCM should be evaluated with caution. The NAO index is found to represent a useful covariate that explains an important fraction of variability of cold extremes in winter, and its incorporation into extreme value models for daily temperatures (and their possible changes under climate change) may improve performance of these models and reliability of estimates of extremes and their uncertainty.     

Interannual variability of Gulf Stream warm-core rings in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Analysis of a quality-controlled database of Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) between 75° and 50°W during 1978–1999 demonstrates a significant correlation between WCR occurrences and variations in large-scale atmospheric forcing related to the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The mechanisms for linking the NAO with the rate of WCR occurrences are two-fold: (1) the influence of the NAO on Gulf Stream (GS) position, which could affect the interaction of the Gulf Stream with the New England Seamounts chain and thus allow for a higher/lower number of WCR occurrences; (2) the NAO-induced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) variability in the Gulf Stream region (GSR), which is indicative of the baroclinic instability processes necessary for WCR formation. Variability in GS movement is studied by analyzing annual mean positions of the Gulf Stream North Wall obtained from satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) frontal charts. Response of GSR EKE to fluctuations in the state of the NAO is examined with a numerical simulation of the North Atlantic basin from 1980–1999. The North Atlantic basin is simulated using a 1/6°-resolution eddy-resolving Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model that spins up with Southampton Oceanography Center (SOC) ocean-atmosphere atlas-derived atmospheric forcing fields. Model-derived EKE estimates are observed to be in good agreement with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter-based EKE estimates as well as with results from other modeling studies for the North Atlantic basin. We suggest that lateral movement of the GS may not be the primary mechanism causing variation in the rate of WCR occurrences, because GS position is observed to respond at a lag of one year, whereas annual rates of WCR occurrences respond at 0-year lag to the NAO. Based on results from numerical simulations of the North Atlantic basin, adjustment to NAO-induced wind forcing is seen to impact the GSR EKE intensity and possibly the related baroclinic instability structure of the GS at 0-year lag. These results suggest that NAO-induced interannual variability in GSR EKE is the most likely mechanism affecting WCR occurrences. Numerical simulations show that high (low) phases in the state of the NAO exhibit higher (lower) EKE in the GSR, providing a greater (lesser) source of baroclinic instability to the GS front, possibly resulting in higher (lower) occurrences of WCRs.     

Interdecadal change of the linkage between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific

The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific(WNPTCF) in summer is investigated by use of observation data. It is found that their linkage appears to have an interdecadal change from weak connection to strong connection. During the period of 1948–1977, the NAO was insignificantly correlated to the WNPTCF. However, during the period of 1980–2009, they were significantly correlated with stronger(weaker) NAO corresponding to more(fewer) tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. The possible reason for such a different relationship between the NAO and the WNPTCF during the former and latter periods is further analyzed from the perspective of large-scale atmospheric circulations. When the NAO was stronger than normal in the latter period, an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevailed in the lower troposphere of the western North Pacific and the monsoon trough was intensified, concurrent with the eastward-shifting western Pacific subtropical high as well as anomalous low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the western North Pacific. These conditions favor the genesis and development of tropical cyclones, and thus more tropical cyclones appeared over the western North Pacific. In contrast, in the former period, the impact of the NAO on the aforementioned atmospheric circulations became insignificant, thereby weakening its linkage to the WNPTCF. Further study shows that the change of the wave activity flux associated with the NAO during the former and latter periods may account for such an interdecadal shift of the NAO–WNPTCF relationship.     

The effect of variations in rainfall on the chemical composition of vulcano fumaroles (Italy)

Analytical data for samples collected over a period of 17 months at the crater fumaroles of Vulcano are given. Fluids are both condensed and absorbed in KOH solutions, thus providing a complete analysis of acid and condensable species. Variations in H₂O, CO₂, SO₂, H₂S, HCl, B, F, Br, NH₄ concentrations are taken into account. Rainwater represents an important modifying facor of the basic chemical composition of the investigated discharges, which do not seem to have undergone any other significant change during the above mentioned span of time. While acting essentially as a diluting factor for CO₂ and SO₂, the inflow of meteoric water can introduce substantial modifications in concentrations of other constituents. As a consequence, any correct comparison of fumaroles compositions either for different systems or for different samplings at the same system should take into consideration the influence of meteorological conditions.     

Selection of spectrum- and seismo-compatible accelerograms for the Tuscany region in Central Italy

This article illustrates the results of a study aimed at developing a methodology for the automatic identification of the seismic input at outcropping rock sites and flat topographic conditions necessary to carry out non-linear dynamic analysis of structures and geotechnical systems. The seismic input is provided in terms of a set of 7 natural accelerograms recorded on outcropping rock and satisfying the average spectral compatibility requirements prescribed by the Italian seismic code (NTC08).The study focuses on the territory encompassing Tuscany region in Central Italy and it has been carried out for six return periods, which are 50, 75, 101, 475, 712 and 949 years. The procedure involved four main steps: (1) grouping of the response spectra with similar features; (2) definition of the reference response spectrum for each group; (3) selection of spectrum-compatible accelerograms using the reference response spectrum of each group; and (4) linear scaling of the accelerograms to satisfy the compatibility requirement with respect to other response spectra of the group. The last step is implemented through an interactive, user-friendly program named SCALCONA 2.0, which provides the seismic input in agreement with the site location and return period specified by the user. The program is freely available at the following web site: http://www.rete.toscana.it/sett/pta/sismica/01informazione/banchedati/input_sismici/progettazione/index.htm.