地震保险中经济损失和赔付问题的研究

简单介绍了国内外地震保险业的发展和现状,以及基于地震危险性分析和结构易损性分析的经济损失评估方法;着重探讨了给定赔付政策下单体房屋结构震害损失赔付的概率密度函数,和保险业关心的多个单体集合赔付的整体方差问题;引入了美国使用的单体结构间损失的相关系数,并据此解释了地震保险中风险的高聚合性质. 为我国地震保险业中的赔付和费率厘定提供依据,为地震保险工作的实际运作和展开提供参考.      

Study on financial loss and its adjustment in earthquake insurance

Introduction Earthquake often brings large catastrophe to the mankind, especially in recent years when a large number of destructive earthquakes occur in the whole globe, which have caused tremendous casualties and losses to the people. Obviously, it is not very reasonable to make up financial losses and carry out post-seismic reconstruction by the government only for such kind of huge earth- quake losses. Therefore, as an effective measure to raise fund and make up financial losses, earth- qu…     

地震多发区居民风险感知对巨灾保险需求影响研究

地震巨灾保险一直是我国地震灾害风险共担体系的重要组成部分。本文基于2023年1月26日四川泸定5.6级地震问卷调查数据,探索居民风险感知对巨灾保险需求的影响,以期改善地震巨灾保险具体推广路径。实证分析结果表明,存在地震经历、心理恐慌程度、地震保险认知这三种风险感知因子对地震巨灾保险需求产生正向影响。此外,附加政府补贴政策的巨灾保险产品,更容易得到居民的认可。因此,我国巨灾保险的推广,尤其是在地震多发区,要坚持长期普及和灾时宣传相结合的策略。在当前的地震保险推广过程中,仍然需要继续实行附加政府补贴的政策,将有利于我国巨灾保险的健康发展。     

强地震影响背景区投资政策制定的基本原则

介绍了强地震影响背景区投资的风险来源，讨论了强地震影响背景区投资政策制定的基本内容，认为应考虑引入禁入机制、保险机制、风险投资机制和强化抗震设防管理机制。最后对我国强地震影响背景区投资政策的制定提出了建议。     

未来巨灾风险的评估与社会政策

本文综合有关信息和资料,分析了美国巨灾发生、发展的趋势,介绍了美国建立巨灾风险识别与分析的步骤和程序。综述了美国自然灾害风险管理政策的框架设计和地震巨灾风险评估和地震保险研究的社会政策。     

Prospects of interventions to alleviate rural–urban migration in Jiangsu Province,China based on sensitivity and scenario analysis

ABSTRACT

Rural–urban migration is an adaptive response to location-specific environmental or socio-economic stressors. Jiangsu Province, China is witnessing rapid economic growth fuelled by manufacturing and services sector. Rural–urban migration in Jiangsu, which brings higher stress to resource-carrying capacity of urban areas, is driven by rural “push” factors, principally labour surplus and unemployment in agriculture. This study investigates possible policy interventions aimed at relieving the rapid rural–urban migration in Jiangsu based on a sensitivity analysis of driving factors in rural agricultural production. It shows that rural–urban migration is sensitive to input elasticities of precipitation and labour. Two groups of scenario analysis corresponding to possible policy interventions are implemented. The first policy focuses on providing government subsidies to rural non-agricultural industries then compensate for the shrinking agricultural production. Another policy supports education in rural areas to provide more skilled labour resource which can be absorbed by non-agricultural industries. Both two policies are effective in reducing rural unemployment and alleviating rural–urban migration.     

Engineering models for catastrophe risk and their application to insurance

Internationally earthquake insurance, like all other insurance (fire, auto), adopted actuarial approach in the past, which is, based on historical loss experience to determine insurance rate. Due to the fact that earthquake is a rare event with severe consequence, irrational determination of premium rate and lack of understanding scale of potential loss led to many insurance companies insolvent after Northridge earthquake in 1994. Along with recent advances in earth science, computer science and engineering, computerized loss estimation methodologies based on first principles have been developed to the point that losses from destructive earthquakes can be quantified with reasonable accuracy using scientific modeling techniques. This paper intends to introduce how engineering models can assist to quantify earthquake risk and how insurance industry can use this information to manage their risk in the United States and abroad. Supported partially by: Institute of Engineering Mechanics, CSB     

The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications

For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment of uncertainty within the model.     

Development of an earthquake loss model for Turkish catastrophe insurance

Following the devastating Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes of August andNovember 1999, the Turkish Government was faced with an enormousfinancial burden as a result of its statutory obligation to cover the full costsof rebuilding. In order to offset this liability in the future – which has hadan adverse effect on the Government's economic programme – acompulsory earthquake insurance scheme has been introduced for allhouseholders in Turkey. A key element for successful implementation ofthis novel and ambitious programme is the transfer of the earthquake riskabsorbed by the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) to theinternational reinsurance market. An earthquake loss model, described inthis paper, has been developed for the TCIP to serve as a basis for thedecision-making process with respect to the pricing of its insurance policy,risk control, the purchase of reinsurance, and the transfer of seismic risk.Sample results of the loss calculations are presented.     

Evolution of seismic risk management for insurance over the past 30 years

During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing "Insur Tech" tools to address the much needed "Insurance for the Masses", especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and scientists.This paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing financial risk due to natural catastrophes. Historical losses and the share of those losses covered by insurance will be presented. How such risk sharing can help the nation share the burden of losses between tax paying public, the "at risk" property owners, the insurers and the reinsurers will be discussed. The paper will summarize the tools that are used by the insurance and reinsurance companies for estimating their future losses due to catastrophic natural events. The paper will also show how the results of loss estimation technologies developed by engineers are communicated to the business flow of insurance/reinsurance companies. Finally, to make it possible to grow "Insurance for the Masses – IFM", the role played by parametric insurance products and Insur Tech tools will be discussed.     

地震保险的政策性与商业性探讨

地震是群灾之首,一次破坏性地震可以造成巨大的生命和财产损失。地震保险风险责任大,是保险公司难以独立承担的业务,必然亏损;单位或个人心存侥幸,不愿投保。这种逆向选择的局面严重制约了地震保险业的发展。随着时代的进步和科学技术的发展,地震保险离我们愈近,本文就地震保险的政策引导和商业盈利进行探讨,提出建立灾害基金,政策性强制保险及保险公司非盈利性经营的一些看法。     

基于多层次可拓评价法的城市燃气管线风险评价研究

以改进的肯特危险指数评分法对城市燃气管道的危险因素进行识分析,确立了城市燃气管线风险评价指标体系。将传统的可拓学方法改进为多层次可拓评价法,对其中的节域物元、关联度和等级评定程序进行了调整,并建立了相应的准则,对评价对象进行多级综合评价。通过多层次评价,可以获得不同子指标各自的风险等级以及评价对象总体的风险等级。以邯郸市某段燃气管线为例,运用城市燃气管线风险评价模型进行风险评价,得出其多层次风险等级值。通过对比及数据分析,证实了本文方法的可靠性。     

Hardware complex for recording soil gas concentrations and searching for precursor anomalies before strong earthquakes in South Kamchatka

At the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky geodynamic test site the instrumental complex has operated for the registration of subsurface gas concentration since 2006. In this paper the main components of the complex and their capabilities are described. To illustrate the work of the complex the dynamics of subsurface gas concentrations in the period from February to March 2011 (before and after the earthquake off the coast of Japan, March 11, 2011, M = 9.0) in one of the registration points was analyzed. These data indicate geodynamic processes during this period in the considered area at the point of subsurface gas registration. Selected dynamics anomalies of the subsurface gas concentrations can be regarded as a short-term remote precursor of the earthquake off the coast of Japan.     

超大城市推进地震巨灾保险工作的若干建议

地震巨灾保险作为资源储备和经济补偿的一种手段,能够有效减轻国家政府的负担,为震后受灾群众提供经济补偿。当超大城市发生地震后,经济损失相较其他城市更严重。因此,在超大城市推进地震巨灾保险发展显得尤为重要。本文从政策法规、模型构建和巨灾试点3个层面对比梳理了地震巨灾保险现状,分析了我国超大城市开展地震保险工作所面临的困难,最后以首都北京为例,对北京开展超大城市地震巨灾保险提出了意见建议,为北京相关政府部门政策制定和决策建议提供了参考。      

南海北部陆坡气源条件对水合物成藏影响的模拟研究

南海北部陆坡包括神狐海域在内无论在横向上还是纵向上影响水合物形成与分布的地质因素差异较大,其气源条件的变化是否为一种重要因素值得探索.本文将前人南海北部陆坡气源类型和气体组成概括为14种情况,分别运用模拟手段定量-半定量地分析它们对水合物成藏可能带来的影响.模拟结果显示,与神狐海域已知水合物相比,不同气体组成形成水合物所需温度条件增大0.49~5.44℃,多数增大2℃以上.可以看出,不同气体组成明显改变水合物的形成条件,暗示着不同类型气源可能是影响南海北部陆坡水合物形成与分布的重要因素.     

Quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment with vulnerability surface and hazard joint return period

Risk assessment plays an important role in disaster risk management. Existing multi-hazard risk assessment models are often qualitative or semi-quantitative in nature and used for comparative study of regional risk levels. They cannot estimate directly probability of disaster losses from the joint impact of several hazards. In this paper, a quantitative approach of multi-hazard risk assessment based on vulnerability surface and joint return period of hazards is put forward to assess the risk of crop losses in the Yangtze River Delta region of China. The impact of strong wind and flood, the two most prominent agricultural hazards in the area, is analyzed. The multi-hazard risk assessment process consists of three steps. First, a vulnerability surface, which denotes the functional relationship between the intensity of the hazards and disaster losses, was built using the crop losses data for losses caused by strong wind and flood in the recent 30 years. Second, the joint probability distribution of strong wind and flood was established using the copula functions. Finally, risk curves that show the probability of crop losses in this multi-hazard context at four case study sites were calculated according to the joint return period of hazards and the vulnerability surface. The risk assessment result of crop losses provides a useful reference for governments and insurance companies to formulate agricultural development plans and analyze the market of agricultural insurance. The multi-hazard risk assessment method developed in this paper can also be used to quantitatively assess multi-hazard risk in other regions.     

Microwave remote sensing of flood inundation

Flooding is one of the most costly natural disasters and thus mapping, modeling and forecasting flood events at various temporal and spatial scales is important for any flood risk mitigation plan, disaster relief services and the global (re-)insurance markets. Both computer models and observations (ground-based, airborne and Earth-orbiting) of flood processes and variables are of great value but the amount and quality of information available varies greatly with location, spatial scales and time. It is very well known that remote sensing of flooding, especially in the microwave region of the electromagnetic spectrum, can complement ground-based observations and be integrated with flood models to augment the amount of information available to end-users, decision-makers and scientists. This paper aims to provide a concise review of both the science and applications of microwave remote sensing of flood inundation, focusing mainly on synthetic aperture radar (SAR), in a variety of natural and man-made environments. Strengths and limitations are discussed and the paper will conclude with a brief account on perspectives and emerging technologies.     

A nested multivariate copula approach to hydrometeorological simulations of spring floods: the case of the Richelieu River (Québec,Canada) record flood

Floods have potentially devastating consequences on populations, industries and environmental systems. They often result from a combination of effects from meteorological, physiographic and anthropogenic natures. The analysis of flood hazards under a multivariate perspective is primordial to evaluate several of the combined factors. This study analyzes spring flood-causing mechanisms in terms of the occurrence, frequency, duration and intensity of precipitation as well as temperature events and their combinations previous to and during floods using frequency analysis as well as a proposed multivariate copula approach along with hydrometeorological indices. This research was initiated over the Richelieu River watershed (Quebec, Canada), with a particular emphasis on the 2011 spring flood, constituting one of the most damaging events over the last century for this region. Although some work has already been conducted to determine certain causes of this record flood, the use of multivariate statistical analysis of hydrologic and meteorological events has not yet been explored. This study proposes a multivariate flood risk model based on fully nested Archimedean Frank and Clayton copulas in a hydrometeorological context. Several combinations of the 2011 Richelieu River flood-causing meteorological factors are determined by estimating joint and conditional return periods with the application of the proposed model in a trivariate case. The effects of the frequency of daily frost/thaw episodes in winter, the cumulative total precipitation fallen between the months of November and March and the 90th percentile of rainfall in spring on peak flow and flood duration are quantified, as these combined factors represent relevant drivers of this 2011 Richelieu River record flood. Multiple plausible and physically founded flood-causing scenarios are also analyzed to quantify various risks of inundation.     

地震指数保险在云南漾濞6.4级地震中的作用及启示

指数保险具有触发参数客观、理赔反应迅速的特点,是政策性保险的优先选择。云南省作为地震灾害频发且损失严重地区,率先开展了地震指数保险的试点工作。2021年5月21日,云南省漾濞县发生6.4级地震,触发了地震指数保险赔付。本文对地震指数保险赔偿原则及其在云南试点地区的实施情况等进行介绍,根据漾濞地震损失和赔付情况,总结地震指数保险实施优势和存在的问题,并对地震保险在我国的发展进行展望。     

我国开展地震保险的必要性、有利条件、模式选择

立足于中国地震风险的定量分析和巨灾保险理论，对国外有代表性的地震保险制度进行了比较性研究。认为我国幅员辽阔有利于分散风险，国外地震保险的成功经验可以应用于我国，而适应于我国的地震保险制度设计未必可以应用于其他国家。建议我国地震保险制度的最佳方案是在政策上采用新西兰的法定模式，在分保技术上采用日本模式，并阐述了这一组合模式的财政、保险和投保人的三赢原理，说明了我国地震风险分析技术已经具备了支持这一制度的能力。