Dependences of statistical characteristics of <Emphasis Type="Italic">NmE</Emphasis> on the month of the year at middle and low latitudes under daytime geomagnetically quiet conditions at low solar activity

Month-to-month changes in the statistical characteristics of the ionospheric E layer peak electron density NmE at medium and low geomagnetic latitudes under daytime geomagnetically quiet conditions are investigated. Critical frequencies of the ionospheric E layer measured by the middle latitude ionosonde Boulder and low latitude ionosondes Huancayo and Jicamarca at low solar activity from 1957 to 2015 have been used in the conducted statistical analysis. The mathematical expectation of NmE, standard deviation of NmE from the expectation of NmE, and NmE variation coefficient have been calculated for each month of the year. The months of the formation of extrema of these statistical parameters of NmE were found.     

Experimental Study on Velocity Profiles with Different Roughness Elements in a Flume

The classical log law for velocity profile is applied to engineering practice. Field observations indicate that the composition of the bed materials obviously influences the shape of vertical velocity distribution. To clearly understand the roughness effect, six types of materials were laid separately at various depths for the investigation of the effects of roughness elements on the vertical velocity distribution. A down-looking 3D acoustic Doppler velocimeter was used to measure the velocity profiles. The experimental results showed that the curve characteristics of velocity profiles are strongly dependent on the roughness scale and related flow parameters. If d/R, Fr, and Re are larger than 0.15, 0.47, and 60 000, respectively, the velocity distribution may resemble an S-shape profile. The inflexion position Z*/H for a given S-shape profile was empirically deduced as Z*/H = ?0.4481d/R + 0.3225. Otherwise, the velocity profile agrees well with the logarithmic law. The findings of this study are useful in engineering practice (i.e., depth-averaged velocity and flow rate estimate). Key words: velocity profiles, acoustic Doppler velocimeter, roughness elements, logarithmic law, S-shape curve.     

Testing the reference Moon model in respect of the thermal regime and chemical composition of the mantle: Thermodynamics versus seismology

The VPREMOON seismic reference Moon model (Garcia et al., 2011) has been tested with respect to the thermal regime and chemical composition of the mantle. Based on a self-consistent thermodynamic approach and petrological models of the lunar mantle covering a wide range of concentrations of CaO, Al₂O₃, and FeO, we convert the P- and S-wave velocity profiles to the temperature–depth profiles. The solution procedure relies on the method of the Gibbs free energy minimization and the equations of state for the mantle material which take into account the effects of phase transformations, anharmonicity, and anelasticity. We find that regardless of the chemical composition, the positive P- and S-wave velocity gradient in the lunar mantle leads to a negative temperature gradient, which has no physical basis. For adequate mantle temperatures, the P- and S-wave velocities should remain almost constant or slightly decrease with depth (especially V_S) as a result of the effects of the temperature, which grows faster than pressure. These findings underscore the importance of the relationship of the thermodynamics and physics of minerals with seismology.     

Validation of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder water vapor and ozone profiles over the Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent region during boreal summer

We present validation studies of MLS V2.2 and V3.3 water vapor(WV) and ozone profiles over the Tibetan Plateau(Naqu and Lhasa) and its adjacent region(Tengchong) respectively by using the balloon-borne Cryogenic Frost point Hygrometer and Electrochemical Concentration Cell ozonesonde. Coincident in situ measurements were selected to compare the MLS V2.2 and V3.3 WV and ozone profiles for understanding the applicability of the two version MLS products over the region. MLS V2.2 and V3.3 WV profiles respectively show their differences within ?2.2±15.7%(n=74) and 0.3±14.9%(n=75) in the stratosphere at and above 82.5 h Pa. Accordingly, at 100 h Pa, the altitude approaching the tropopuase height, differences are within 9.8± 46.0%(n=18) and 23.0±45.8%(n=17), and they are within 21.5±90.6%(n=104) and 6.0±83.4%(n=99) in upper troposphere. The differences of MLS ozone are within ?11.7±16.3%(n=135, V2.2) and 15.6±24.2%(n=305, V3.3) at and above 82.5 h Pa. At 100 h Pa, they are within ?3.5±54.4%(n=27) and ?8.7±41.6%(n=38), and within 18.0±79.1%(n=47) and 34.2±76.6%(n=160) in the upper troposphere. The relative difference of MLS WV and ozone profile has significant oscillation and scatter at upper troposphere and lower stratosphere partly due to the stronger gradients of WV and ozone concentrations here as well the linear interpolation of sonde data for the intercomparison. At and below 70 h Pa, the relative differences of MLS ozone are significantly larger over Lhasa during the Tibetan Plateau "ozone valley" season, which is also the Asian Summer Monsoon period. The MLS ozone differences over the three sites are similar in their vertical distributions during that period. A simple linear correlation analysis between MLS and sonde profiles indicates that the sensitivity of MLS profile products is related to concentrations at each pressure level. The MLS V3.3 product sensitivity is slightly improved for WV at and above 82.5 h Pa, whereas it is not obvious for ozone. The possible factors contributing to the differences of the MLS profile products of WV and ozone are discussed.     

An Empirical Model for the Ionospheric Global Electron Content Storm-Time Response

By analyzing the variations of global electron content (GEC) during geomagnetic storm events, the ratio “GEC/GECQT” is found to be closely correlated with geomagnetic Kp index and time weighted Dst index, where GECQT is the quiet time reference value. Moreover, the GEC/GECQT will decrease with the increase of the solar flux F10.7 index. Furthermore, we construct a linear model for storm-time response of GEC. Eighty-two storm events during 1999–2011 were utilized to calculate the model coefficients, and the performance of the model was tested using data of 8 storm events in 2012 by comparing the outputs of the model with the observed GEC values. Results suggest that the model can capture the characteristics of the GEC variation in response to magnetic storms. The component describing the solar activity influence shows a counteracting effect with the geomagnetic activity component; and the influence of Kp index causes an increase of GEC, while the time weighted Dst index causes a decrease of GEC.     

Quantitative estimation of the shrub canopy LAI from atmosphere-corrected HJ-1 CCD data in Mu Us Sandland

The leaf area index (LAI) is an important ecological parameter that characterizes the interface between vegetation canopy and the atmosphere. In addition, it is used by most process-oriented ecosystem models. This paper investigates the potential of HJ-1 CCD data combined with linear spectral unmixing and an inverted geometric-optical model for the retrieval of the shrub LAI in Wushen Banner of Inner Mongolia in the Mu Us Sandland. MODTRAN (Moderate Resolution Atmospheric Radiance and Transmittance Model) was used for atmospheric correction. Shrubland was extracted using the threshold of the normalized difference vegetation index, with which water bodies and farmland were separated, in combination with a vegetation map of the People’s Republic of China (1:1000000). Using the geometric-optical model, we derive the per-pixel reflectance as a simple linear combination of two components, namely sunlit background and other. The fraction of sunlit background is related to the shrub LAI. With the support of HJ-1 CCD data, we employ linear spectral unmixing to obtain the fraction of sunlit background in an atmospherically corrected HJ image. In addition, we use the measured shrub canopy structural parameters for shrub communities to invert the geometric-optical model and retrieve the pixel-based shrub LAI. In total, 18 sample plots collected in Wushen Banner of Inner Mongolia are used for validation. The results of the shrub LAI show good agreement with R ² of 0.817 and a root-mean-squared error of 0.173.     

A new <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems

We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ _c and P _d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M _s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M _s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 ^Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.     

Ground-motion models for average spectral acceleration in a period range: direct and indirect methods

Average spectral acceleration, AvgSA, is defined as the geometric mean of spectral acceleration values over a range of periods and it is a ground motion intensity measure used for structural response prediction. One of its advantages stands on the assumption that its distribution is computable from the available GMPEs for spectral acceleration, GMPE-SA, (called here indirect method) without the need for deriving new specific GMPEs for AvgSA, GMPE-AvgSA, (called here direct method). To what extent this assumption is valid, however, has never been verified. As such, we derived an empirical GMPE-AvgSA based on RESORCE ground motion dataset and we compared its predicted values with those from a GMPE-SA via the indirect approach. As expected, the results show that the indirect approach yields median AvgSA estimates that are identical to those of the direct approach. However, the estimates of AvgSA variance of the two methods are identical only if both the GMPE-SA and their empirical correlation coefficients among different SA ordinates are derived from the same record dataset.     

Ionospheric Response to the Acoustic Gravity Wave Singularity

An original model of atmospheric wave propagation from ground sources to the ionosphere in the atmosphere with a realistic high-altitude temperature profile is analyzed. Shaping of a narrow domain with elevated pressure in the resonance region where the horizontal phase wave velocity is equal to the sound velocity is examined theoretically within the framework of linearized Eq.s. Numerical simulations for the model profiles of atmospheric temperature and viscosity confirm analytical result for the special feature of wave fields. The formation of the narrow domain with plasma irregularities in the D and low E ionospheric layers caused by the acoustic gravity wave singularity is discussed.     

Effects of temporally correlated infiltration on water flow in an unsaturated–saturated system

Effects of temporally correlated infiltration on water flow in an unsaturated–saturated system were investigated. Both white noise and exponentially correlated infiltration processes were considered. The moment equations of the pressure head (ψ) were solved numerically to obtain the variance and autocorrelation functions of ψ at 14 observation points. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to verify the numerical results and to estimate the power spectrum of ψ (S _ψψ ). It was found that as the water flows through the system, the variance of the ψ (\( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \)) were damped by the system: the deeper in the system, the smaller the \( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \), and the larger the correlation timescale of the infiltration process (λ _I ), the larger the \( \sigma_{\psi }^{2} \). The unsaturated–saturated system gradually filters out the short-term fluctuations of ψ and the damping effect is most significant in the upper part of the system. The fluctuations of ψ is non-stationary at early time and becomes stationary as time progresses: the larger the value of λ _I , the longer the non-stationary period. The correlation timescale of the ψ (λ _ψ ) increases with depth and approaches a constant value at depth: the larger the value of λ _I , the larger the value of λ _ψ . The results of the estimated S _ψψ is consistent with those of the variance and autocorrelation function.     

Manifestations of cyclic variations in the solar magnetic field in long-term modulation of cosmic rays

The possibilities of improving the semiempirical model of cosmic ray (CR) modulation, proposed by us previously, are discussed. The following characteristics have been considered as model parameters in order to describe long-period CR variations using a unified model and to more completely reflect solar cycles in CR modulation as a complex interaction between two systems of fields (large-scale and local): the value and sign of the polar solar field, the average strength of the solar magnetic field (the B _ss integral index), partial indices (zone-even (ZE) and zone-odd (ZO) and sector-even (SE) and sector-odd (SO) indices), the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and the special index (F _x ) taking into account X ray flares. The role of each index in CR modulation has been revealed. When we described the long-term CR variations using many parameters and taking into account the integral index or one of four partial indices, the best results of modulation modeling during 1976–1999 were obtained for the B _ss total energetic index and SO index. A difference between the model calculations and observations increases beginning from the middle of 2000; the problem features of the CR behavior and the specific features of modeling this behavior in cycle 23 of solar activity (SA) are discussed. It is assumed that a decrease in the CR density at the last SA minimums (from cycle to cycle) can be related to a decrease in the ZO index and to a recently detected similar decrease in the vertical component of the solar dipole magnetic moment.     

Long-Term Trends in the Critical Frequency of the E-layer

A search for trends k(foE) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric E layer at Juliusruh and Slough stations is performed by the method often used by the authors to analyze trends in the F2-layer parameters. It is found that k(foE) could differ in both magnitude and even sign within different time intervals. However, the k(foE) trends have been stably negative over the last two decades for both stations and all months of the year. The k(foE) values averaged over a year are ?0.012 and ?0.005 MHz per year for Juliusruh and Slough stations, respectively. The method used in the recent paper by La?tovi?ka et al. (2016) to determine foE trends is analyzed, and it is shown that the difference in linear approximation of the dependence of the observed foE values on F10.7 within different time intervals could be interpreted not as the presence of a different foE dependence on the F10.7 index within these intervals but as the presence within them of foE trends that change the slope of the linear approximation.     

A novel model and estimation method for the individual random component of earthquake ground-motion relations

In this paper, I introduce a novel approach to modelling the individual random component (also called the intra-event uncertainty) of a ground-motion relation (GMR), as well as a novel approach to estimating the corresponding parameters. In essence, I contend that the individual random component is reproduced adequately by a simple stochastic mechanism of random impulses acting in the horizontal plane, with random directions. The random number of impulses was Poisson distributed. The parameters of the model were estimated according to a proposal by Raschke J Seismol 17(4):1157–1182, (2013a), with the sample of random difference ξ?=?ln(Y ₁ )-ln(Y ₂ ), in which Y ₁ and Y ₂ are the horizontal components of local ground-motion intensity. Any GMR element was eliminated by subtraction, except the individual random components. In the estimation procedure, the distribution of difference ξ was approximated by combining a large Monte Carlo simulated sample and Kernel smoothing. The estimated model satisfactorily fitted the difference ξ of the sample of peak ground accelerations, and the variance of the individual random components was considerably smaller than that of conventional GMRs. In addition, the dependence of variance on the epicentre distance was considered; however, a dependence of variance on the magnitude was not detected. Finally, the influence of the novel model and the corresponding approximations on PSHA was researched. The applied approximations of distribution of the individual random component were satisfactory for the researched example of PSHA.     

Modeling of the thermal structure of continental lithosphere

The thermal structure of continental lithosphere (the temperature, heat flows, and heat generation in the crust and lithosphere) is reconstructed from geothermal, seismic, and petrologic data. The first step is the determination of the temperature profile from absolute P and S wave velocities (T _{P, S} ). The T _{P, S} profile is then adjusted to a thermophysical model of conductive transfer. In addition, the surface heat flow and the T _{P, S} profile are used to determine heat generation, thicknesses of crustal layers, and heat flow components in the crust and lithosphere. A feature inherent in the solution of the thermophysical inverse problem obtained in this paper is the use of constraints derived from the temperature reconstruction by seismic data inversion. As a result, the analytical dependence of the temperature on depth, the intensity of radiogenic heat sources in the crust, and heat flow components in the crust and lithosphere are determined.     

Quantitative Analysis of Seismicity Before Large Taiwanese Earthquakes Using the G-R Law

Seismicity has been identified as an example of a natural, nonlinear system for which the distribution of frequency and event size follow a power law called the “Gutenberg–Richter (G-R) law.” The parameters of the G-R law, namely b- and a-values, have been widely used in many studies about seismic hazards, earthquake forecasting models, and other related topics. However, the plausibility of the power law model and applicability of parameters were mainly verified by statistical error σ of the b-value, the effectiveness of which is still doubtful. In this research, we used a newly defined p value developed by Clausetet al. (Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data, SIAM Rev. 51, 661–703, 2009) instead of the statistical error σ of the b-value and verified its effectiveness as a plausibility index of the power-law model. Furthermore, we also verified the effectiveness of K–S statistics as a goodness-of-fit test in estimating the crucial parameter \(M_{\text{c}}\) of the power-law model.     

IRI model in the problem of predicting ionospheric radio-wave propagation under conditions of high solar activity

The paper presents the results of an analysis of the correspondence between model representations the monthly mean diurnal dependences of critical frequency and vertical profiles of plasma frequency at local noon at IZMIRAN station for the middle months of the four seasons of 2014, the year of the maximum solar activity in the current 24th cycle. It is shown that in general the IRI model reliably describes the daily variation of foF2, and the smallest discrepancy is achieved when its basic input parameter is given by the ionospheric index of solar activity IG12. An exception is April, for which there is a fundamental discrepancy with the model both in the daily variation of the critical frequency foF2 and in the N _e (h)-profile for local noon time. For this month, the inadequacy in the model representation of the vertical distribution of the electron density turned out to be very significant in the calculation of the MUF: the relative error can reach 20%. The simulation results are confirmed by data from oblique-incidence ionospheric radio sounding.     

Characterisation of ground motion recording stations in the Groningen gas field

The seismic hazard and risk analysis for the onshore Groningen gas field requires information about local soil properties, in particular shear-wave velocity (V_S). A fieldwork campaign was conducted at 18 surface accelerograph stations of the monitoring network. The subsurface in the region consists of unconsolidated sediments and is heterogeneous in composition and properties. A range of different methods was applied to acquire in situ V_S values to a target depth of at least 30 m. The techniques include seismic cone penetration tests (SCPT) with varying source offsets, multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) on Rayleigh waves with different processing approaches, microtremor array, cross-hole tomography and suspension P-S logging. The offset SCPT, cross-hole tomography and common midpoint cross-correlation (CMPcc) processing of MASW data all revealed lateral variations on length scales of several to tens of metres in this geological setting. SCPTs resulted in very detailed V_S profiles with depth, but represent point measurements in a heterogeneous environment. The MASW results represent V_S information on a larger spatial scale and smooth some of the heterogeneity encountered at the sites. The combination of MASW and SCPT proved to be a powerful and cost-effective approach in determining representative V_S profiles at the accelerograph station sites. The measured V_S profiles correspond well with the modelled profiles and they significantly enhance the ground motion model derivation. The similarity between the theoretical transfer function from the V_S profile and the observed amplification from vertical array stations is also excellent.     

On the possible correlation between the Gutenberg-Richter parameters of the frequency-magnitude relationship

The study of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) parameters a and b has been very important to describe and characterize the seismicity over the different seismic provinces around the world. As far as we know, the possible correlation between the GR parameters a and b has not received enough attention. Bayrak et al. reported the a and b values for 27 active seismic regions around the boundaries of the main tectonic plates of the world. From these data, we found that there exists a positive correlation between the a and b parameters (R =?0.85, R² =?0.72). On the other hand, we made around 150 computer runs of a spring-block model proposed by Olami et al. (Phys Rev Lett 68(8):1244–1247, 1992). This model roughly emulates the interaction between two fault planes and it reaches a self-organized critical state. With these simulations, we also found that the a and b parameters are positively correlated. Motivated by these results, we propose an analytical demonstration that indeed a and b are positively correlated. In addition, we discuss on other possible applications of the spring-block model to actual seismicity and to frictional experiments made with sandpapers.     

Near-source attenuation of high-frequency body waves beneath the New Madrid Seismic Zone

Attenuation characteristics in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) are estimated from 157 local seismograph recordings out of 46 earthquakes of 2.6?≤?M?≤?4.1 with hypocentral distances up to 60 km and focal depths down to 25 km. Digital waveform seismograms were obtained from local earthquakes in the NMSZ recorded by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis. Using the coda normalization method, we tried to determine Q values and geometrical spreading exponents at 13 center frequencies. The scatter of the data and trade-off between the geometrical spreading and the quality factor did not allow us to simultaneously derive both these parameters from inversion. Assuming 1/R ^1.0 as the geometrical spreading function in the NMSZ, the Q _P and Q _S estimates increase with increasing frequency from 354 and 426 at 4 Hz to 729 and 1091 at 24 Hz, respectively. Fitting a power law equation to the Q estimates, we found the attenuation models for the P waves and S waves in the frequency range of 4 to 24 Hz as Q _P?=?(115.80?±?1.36) f ^{(0.495?±?0.129)} and Q _S?=?(161.34?±?1.73) f ^{(0.613?±?0.067)}, respectively. We did not consider Q estimates from the coda normalization method for frequencies less than 4 Hz in the regression analysis since the decay of coda amplitude was not observed at most bandpass filtered seismograms for these frequencies. Q _S/Q _P?>?1, for 4?≤?f?≤?24 Hz as well as strong intrinsic attenuation, suggest that the crust beneath the NMSZ is partially fluid-saturated. Further, high scattering attenuation indicates the presence of a high level of small-scale heterogeneities inside the crust in this region.     

Improved random noise attenuation using <Emphasis Type="Italic">f</Emphasis>−<Emphasis Type="Italic">x</Emphasis> empirical mode decomposition and local similarity

Conventional f?x empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is an effective random noise attenuation method for use with seismic profiles mainly containing horizontal events. However, when a seismic event is not horizontal, the use of f?x EMD is harmful to most useful signals. Based on the framework of f?x EMD, this study proposes an improved denoising approach that retrieves lost useful signals by detecting effective signal points in a noise section using local similarity and then designing a weighting operator for retrieving signals. Compared with conventional f?x EMD, f?x predictive filtering, and f?x empirical mode decomposition predictive filtering, the new approach can preserve more useful signals and obtain a relatively cleaner denoised image. Synthetic and field data examples are shown as test performances of the proposed approach, thereby verifying the effectiveness of this method.