湛江气温的多时间尺度特征及其变化趋势预测

利用MHAT小波函数分析了湛江市近50年来年平均气温的多时间尺度变化特征,并采用Kalman滤波模型对年平均温度的变化趋势进行了预测研究。结果表明,在半个多世纪的气候变化过程中包含了16 a4、a和准2 a的周期振荡,20世纪80年代中期以来湛江气温持续升高,且未来几年仍处于偏高阶段。卡尔曼滤波模型对湛江年平均气温的预测中,独立样本预测的平均绝对误差(MAE)等于0.30℃,相对误差为1.24%,对短期气候预测工作具有较高的参考价值。     

正交筛选模型在气候变化预测中的应用

利用时间序列经适当数学变换后生成的均生函数，建立了一个可用于长期气候变化趋势预测的数学模型，并将此模型用于四川地区年平均气温及年降水总量的历史拟合及预测。结果表明：模型对较长时间序列的多步预测有较好的效果。     

陕西近40年气候变化特征的分析

利用陕西96个台站近40a气候资料，通过对气温和降水两个基本气象要素变化特征进行全面分析，得到陕西气候变化的一些特征。（1）近40a来，陕西平均气温在经历了20世纪60年代后期的低温后，从80年代中期开始有明显的上升趋势，陕北西部上升幅度最为明显；冬季平均气温明显上升，夏季平均气温有明显的降低趋势；极端气温明显上升，特别是90年代以后极端最低气温上升明显。（2）陕西平均年总降水量波动略有减少，自20世纪90年代以后冬季降水量增加明显，夏季降水量减少，尤其是关中西部增加明显。（3）年平均气温、季平均气温变化存在以1985年为跃变点，这次跃变比全国晚5～7a，比西北地区提前1a。     

近500年长江中游气候变化的若干特征

根据历史文献和器测资料重建的气温和旱涝系列，对长江中游５２０年以来的气候变化特征进行诊断研究。结果表明：前４００多年平均气温比后１００年低０．３７℃，２０世纪前暖后冷趋势与全球增暖趋势相悖。     

广东汕尾近40年以来气温的变化特征

根据汕尾地区汕尾、海丰、陆丰站1960—1999年的气温序列资料,采用线性趋势、累积距平、小波分析以及Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法对汕尾地区气温变化特征进行了分析,结果表明：40年来汕尾地区存在暖-冷-暖3个气候变化阶段。年季平均气温均呈上升趋势,尤其在1980年代中期以后升温更为明显;四季升温率以冬季最为显著。在不同冷、暖阶段,冷、暖年（季）出现的年数差异很大,其中异常冷年均出现在1980年前,异常暖年均出现在1990年后。年平均最高气温与最低气温同年平均气温一样均呈升高趋势。但不同站点的气温变化仍有一定差异。年平均气温汕尾站存在2—3a、6—7a、准12a周期,海丰站存在准7a与14—16a周期,陆丰存在准1．5a、准2．5a、5—7a、准16a周期,MK检验发现汕尾平均气温在1998年发生突变,其他两站的突变发生在1997年。     

紫红笛鲷随机扩增多态性DNA及遗传多样性分析

采用RAPD技术分析了湛江近海紫红笛鲷(Lutjanus argentimaculatus Forskal)的遗传多样性。从120个随机引物中筛选出了14个引物。14个引物共检测到173个位点，其中多态位点比例(P)为68．79％，遗传距离(D)为0．2228，遗传多样性指数(日)为0．1904。结果表明，目前湛江近海的紫红笛鲷自然群体的遗传多样性仍然维持在良好水平，捕捞尚未对其造成明显影响。     

湛江市降水年代际特征及其影响机制

【目的】研究湛江地区降水的年际、年代际特征及其影响因素。【数据】基于1962-2016年湛江地区6个国家气象观测站的逐日降水资料、同期月平均ONI、PDO序列和月平均风场、相对湿度等再分析资料,【方法】结合线性倾向估计、连续小波变换、相关分析等多种统计学方法。【结果与结论】湛江地区降水存在准2 a、5~8 a的年际振荡,降水日数有显著的准40 a年代际振荡;夏、秋季节的降水变化构成了湛江地区全年降水变化的主要部分;除冬季降水量增加外,各季节降水与降水日数基本呈现"偏多-偏少"的年代际特征;进一步对比发现P1(降水偏多)时期涝年较多,旱年较少,P2(降水偏少)时期恰好相反,但严重涝年偏多,降水强度增大,极端性降水事件发生频次增多。通过对湛江地区降水可能产生影响的因素分析发现:P2时期湛江地区降水频次的减少主要是由于西北太平洋副热带高压的增强、西南季风的减弱以及夏、秋季孟加拉湾和中南半岛异常下沉气流影响所致;冬季南海东部低层异常气旋环流是P2时期降水增加的一个主要原因;P2时期ENSO、PDO等大尺度海气系统在调控湛江地区降水变化中所起作用均有增加。     

应用新古典增长模型研究湛江经济发展问题

运用产出增长率模型对湛江的主要行业的增长率和劳动份额进行了测算，分析了湛江经济增长不均衡及其经济增长率低下的原因，并提出了以工业为主导、发展旅游、贸易、农林牧副渔资源加工等资金积累型产业和加速农村城镇化和机械化的见解。     

近47年白银市气候变化及其对农业生产的影响分析

利用白银市4个代表站逐日平均气温、逐日地面最低温度，分别得到≥0℃初终日期、初终霜冻日期以及利用逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和逐月降水资料，对白银市近47a的气候变化特征进行分析，同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响，为充分利用变化了的农业气候资源，减少不利因素带来的影响提出了对策和建议。     

湛江科学发展水平测度及分析研究

以科学发展观内涵为基础,选择评估指标构建湛江科学发展的AHP模型,对湛江2006—2012年科学发展水平进行评估,然后通过基于次约束的模糊评价法分析湛江科学发展的制约因素,得到3点结论:第一,湛江科学发展总体水平不高;第二,湛江科学发展最大的制约因素是"统筹区域发展";第三,"层次分析法+次约束模糊评价法"可以作为评估地区科学发展水平的范式。     

Thermohaline structure inhomogeneity associated with polynia at the northern margin of Emery Ice-shelf

Based on the hydrographic data in austral summer during the 22nd Antarctic Expedition of China(2005/2006),some features can be found about the northern margin of Emery ice shelf as follows.The heat content in the surface layer(0-50 m) at the eastern end and the western end of the ice-shelf margin is much higher than that at the middle.The upper mixing-layer depth and the seasonal thermocline depth at the middle of the ice-shelf northern margin are much shallower than those at the both ends.However there is much less difference between the middle and the ends in the bottom layer.The remote sensing photos show that the inhomogeneity in the surface-layer water is closely related to the spatial distribution of the floes and polynia in the area.     

Phylogenetic analysis of cultivable bacteria isolated from Arctic sea-ice

Phylogenetic analysis based on 16S rDNA of 8 strains of cultivable bacteria isolated from Arctic sea-ice was studied.The results showed that strain BJ1 belonged to genus Planococcus,which was a genus of low mole percent G C gram-positive bacteria;strain BJ6 belonged to genus Burkholderia of β-proteobacteria and the rest 6 strain all belonged to γ-proteobacteria,of which strain BJ8 was a species of Pseudoalteromonas,strain BJ2-BJ5 and BJ7 were members of genus Psychrobacter.Phylogenetic analysis also indicated that bacteria of genus Psychrobacter of the isolates formed a relatively independent phylogenetic cluster in comparison with other bacteria belonged to genus Psychrobacter.     

Information for authors

正1 Aims and Scope Advances in Polar Science(APS)is an international,peer-reviewed journal jointly sponsored by the Polar Research Institute of China and the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration.APS is a comprchensive academic journal dedicated to presentation of multi-disciplinary achievements in Arctic and Antarctic expeditions and research.Its primary purpose is to publish achievements in fundamental research,applied     

Advances in Polar Science CONTENTS(Volume 25,2014)

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Guide to Authors： Journal of Mountain Science

<正>AIMS AND SCOPE(Editorial Policy)The Journal of Mountain Science(JMS)is devoted to mountains and their surrounding lowlands-ecoregions of particular global importance,with a particular emphasis on the important highlands/mountains in the world,such as the Tibetan Plateau,the Himalayas,the Alps,the Andes,the Rockies and many other mountain ranges of our planet.     

Journal of Mountain Science(JMS)

<正>The Journal of Mountain Science(JMS),founded in2004,is an international English-language journal on mountain sciences.JMS is supervised by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),sponsored by the Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS,published by Science Press China,and distributed by Springer exclusively throughout the world(excluding Mainland China).The JMS is published bimonthly,fulltexted in SpringerLink and CNKI,indexed/abstracted by     

Relationship of Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemispheric 500 hPa Polar vortices

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly 500 hPa height data on a 2.5 latitude-longitude grid and 1°×1° sea ice data,the polar vortex area,intensity index and arctic sea ice area index are calculated respectively,and the meridional distribution,period variation and the abrupts in the long range trend are analyzed to study their relationship.The results show that the meridional distribution of sea ice and polar vortex h-ave distinctive difference,the relative positions of them are different in the eastern and western hemispheres,and exept they have periods of 4 months,quasi half year,quasi year,4-5 years and 10 years commonly,and each of them has its own respective variation as well.The sea ice area is decreasing apparently since 1980's,so is the polar vortex area,but their abrupt changge time are different totally.The area of sea ice and polar vortex has prominent positive correlation,but the relationship of sea ice intensity,polar vortex intensity,polar vortex area is complicated.     

Preliminary study on plasma membrane fluidity of Psychrophilic Yeast Rhodotorula sp.NJ298 in low temperature

The ability of cell to modulate the fluidity of plasma membrane was crucial to the survival of microorganism at low temperature. Plasma membrane proteins, fatty acids and carotenoids profiles of Antarctic psychrophilc yeast Rhodotorula sp. NJ298 were investigated at -3 ℃, 0 ℃ and 8 ℃. The results showed that plasma membrane protein content was greater at -3 ℃ than that at 8 ℃, and a unique membrane polypeptide composition with an apparent molecular mass of 94.7 kDa was newly synthesized with SDS-PAGE analysis; GC analysis showed that the main changes of fatty acids were the percentage of unsaturated fatty acids (C18∶ 1 and C18∶ 2) and shorter chain saturated fatty acid (C10∶ 0) increased along with the decrease of the culture temperature from 8 ℃ to -3 ℃; HPLC analysis indicated that astaxanthin was the major functional carotenoids of the plasma membrane, percentage of which increased from 54.6±1.5% at 8 ℃ to 81.9±2.1% at -3 ℃. However the fluidity of plasma membrane which was determined by measuring fluorescence anisotropy was similar at -3 ℃, 0 ℃ and 8 ℃. Hence these changes in plasma membrane's characteristics were involved in the cellular cold-adaptation by which NJ298 could maintain normal plasma membrane fluidity at near-freezing temperature.     

Author Index for Journal of Mountain Science Volume 11,2014,pp 1-1656

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