Drought frequency analysis of annual rainfall series in central and western Sudan

Abstract

Rainfall is the most important water resource in central and western Sudan, a region affected by the recent drought in Africa. A general methodology for studying the annual rainfall process is presented and applied to data from central and western Sudan. It is assumed that certain time series models adequately describe the annual rainfall process in the region. Based on this assumption, the drought frequencies are calculated in the subregions with stationary series. The theory of runs is applied in calculating drought frequencies using a data generation method.     

Site Response and Earthquake Design Spectra for Central Khartoum, Sudan

Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, is located at the confluence of White and Blue Niles. The city is heavily populated. Central Khartoum with its high-rise buildings is the center of governmental and business activities and is located on a strip adjacent to the Blue Nile. Geological and geotechnical data indicate that the subsoil conditions at Central Khartoum are characterized by alluvial deposits underlain by Nubian Sandstone at a depth of 25 m. The alluvial deposits, locally known as Gezira formations, consist of clays grading into silt and sand with depth. Macro seismic zonation of Sudan and its vicinities, developed by the authors, gave the ground acceleration at the bedrock surface. The effect of alluvial deposits in Central Khartoum on propagation of seismic motion parameters to the ground surface is investigated in this study. Correlations are proposed for pertinent cyclic soil properties such as shear modulus, damping, and shear wave velocity. The Equivalent-Linear Earthquake Response Analyses (EERA) Model was used to study the effect of local soil conditions on ground-motion parameters. In the absence of strong-motion records in Khartoum, available worldwide strong-motion records are used. Plots showing the time histories of ground motion parameters at the ground surface are obtained. The results indicate amplification of ground motion of up to 4.93. The predicted fundamental period of soils is about 0.5 s which is typical for these types of soils. The maximum spectral acceleration varied from 0.76 to 0.95 g. For design purposes, a response spectrum curve is proposed.     

Temporal and spatial variation of annual rainfall on the island of Crete,Greece

Annual rainfall records from the island of Crete in Greece were used with the aid of a geographical information system (GIS) to study the temporal and spatial rainfall characteristics. The GIS was used to produce a digital elevation model, delineate watersheds and estimate the areal rainfall from a network of raingauges by using different interpolation schemes. The rainfall–elevation correlation was significant, suggesting an orographic type of precipitation for the island. The rainfall records for the majority of the stations were found to fit the normal distribution. Deviation from normal for the rest of the records was attributed to the wettest year of 1977–1978. The year 1989–1990 was the driest, and most rainfall records showed a decrease in rainfall over 30 years with higher negative rainfall gradients at the higher elevations. Frequency analysis of the rainfall records was used to estimate areal rainfall for the island of Crete and its main watersheds for return periods of 2, 5 and 10 years. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia

Abstract

Characterization of the seasonal and inter-annual spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in a changing climate is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest adequate future water resources management strategies. Trends in annual, seasonal and maximum 30-day extreme rainfall over Ethiopia are investigated using 0.5° latitude?×?0.5° longitude gridded monthly precipitation data. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall among contiguous rainfall grid points is also assessed for possible spatial similarity across the country. The correlation between temporally coinciding North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and annual rainfall variability is examined to understand the underlying coherence. In total 381 precipitation grid points covering the whole of Ethiopia with five decades (1951–2000) of precipitation data are analysed using the Mann-Kendall test and Moran spatial autocorrelation method. Summer (July–September) seasonal and annual rainfall data exhibit significant decreasing trends in northern, northwestern and western parts of the country, whereas a few grid points in eastern areas show increasing annual rainfall trends. Most other parts of the country exhibit statistically insignificant trends. Regions with high annual and seasonal rainfall distribution exhibit high temporal and spatial correlation indices. Finally, the country is sub-divided into four zones based on annual rainfall similarity. The association of the AMO index with annual rainfall is modestly good for northern and northeastern parts of the country; however, it is weak over the southern region.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Uhlenbrook

Citation Wagesho, N., Goel, N.K., and Jain, M.K. 2013. Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 354–373.     

Spatial,inter and intra‐annual variability of the Upper Blue Nile Basin rainfall

In this study, monthly and annual Upper Blue Nile Basin rainfall data were analyzed to learn the rainfall statistics and its temporal and spatial distribution. Frequency analysis and spatial characterization of rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin are presented. Frequency analysis was performed on monthly basin rainfall. Monthly basin average rainfall data were computed from a network of 32 gauges with varying lengths of records. Monthly rainfall probability distribution varies from month to month fitting Gamma‐2, Normal, Weibull and Log‐Normal distributions. The January, July, October and November basin rainfall fit the Gamma‐2 probability distribution. The February, June and December ones fit Weibull distribution. The March, April, May and August rainfall fit Normal distribution. The September rainfall fits Log‐Normal distribution. Upper Blue Nile Basin is relatively wet with a mean annual rainfall of 1423 mm (1960–2002) with a standard deviation of 125 mm. The annual rainfall has a Normal probability distribution. The 100‐year‐drought basin annual rainfall is 1132 mm and the 100‐year‐wet basin annual rainfall is 1745 mm. The dry season is from November through April. The wet season runs from June through September with 74% of the annual rainfall. October and May are transition months. Monthly and annual rainfalls for return periods 2‐, 5‐, 10‐, 25‐, 50‐ and 100‐year dry and wet patterns are presented. Spatial distribution of annual rainfall over the basin is mapped and shows high variation with the southern tip receiving as high as 2049 mm and the northeastern tip as low as 794 mm annual average rainfall. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative importance of snow accumulation and monsoon rainfall data for estimating annual runoff,Jhelum basin,Pakistan

Abstract

The relative importance of data on winter snow accumulation and summer (monsoon) rainfall for estimating annual runoff in the Jhelum River basin, Punjab Himalaya, Pakistan, has been investigated. Strong correlations were found between point measurements of the annual maximum of snowpack water equivalent and of total winter precipitation in the Kunhar sub-basin, and total annual discharge. In addition, total winter snowfall showed a generally significant correlation with annual discharge. Elevation did not appear to play a strong role in determining the usefulness of these measurements, whereas location within the basin relative to large scale precipitation patterns did, in some cases. Monsoon rainfall appeared to be a very poor indicator of annual discharge. The results also suggest that the operation of a continental scale negative feedback mechanism between Eurasian snow cover and the Indian monsoon might be felt in this region of the Himalaya.     

Assessment of GCM simulations of annual and seasonal rainfall and daily rainfall distribution across south‐east Australia

Global warming can potentially lead to changes in future rainfall and runoff and can significantly impact the regional hydrology and future availability of water resources. All the large‐scale climate impact studies use the future climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) to estimate the impact on future water availability. This paper presents results from a detailed assessment to investigate the capability of 15 GCMs to reproduce the observed historical annual and seasonal mean rainfalls, the observed annual rainfall series and the observed daily rainfall distribution across south‐east Australia. The assessment shows that the GCMs can generally reproduce the spatial patterns of mean seasonal and annual rainfalls. However, there can be considerable differences between the mean rainfalls simulated by the GCMs and the observed rainfall. The results clearly show that none of the GCMs can simulate the actual annual rainfall time series or the trend in the annual rainfall. The GCMs can also generally reproduce the observed daily (ranked) rainfall distribution at the GCM scale. The GCMs are ranked against their abilities to reproduce the observed historical mean annual rainfall and daily rainfall distribution, and, based on the combined score, the better GCMs include MPI‐ECHAM5, MIUB, CCCMA_T47, INMCM, CSIRO‐MK3·0, CNRM, CCCMA_T63 and GFDL 2·0 and those with poorer performances are MRI, IPSL, GISS‐AOM, MIROC‐M, NCAR‐PCM1, IAP and NCAR‐CCSM. However, the reduction in the combined score as we move from the best‐ to the worst‐performing GCMs is gradual, and there is no evident cut‐off point or threshold to remove GCMs from climate impact studies. There is some agreement between the results here and many similar studies comparing the performance of GCMs in Australia, but the results are not always consistent and do significantly disagree with several of the studies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response mechanism of post-earthquake slopes under heavy rainfall

This paper uses the catastrophic landslide that occurred in Zhongxing Town, Dujiangyan City, as an example to study the formation mechanism of landslides induced by heavy rainfall in the post-Wenchuan earthquake area. The deformation characteristics of a slope under seismic loading were investigated via a shaking table test. The results show that a large number of cracks formed in the slope due to the tensile and shear forces of the vibrations, and most of the cracks had angles of approximately 45° with respect to the horizontal. A series of flume tests were performed to show how the duration and intensity of rainfall influence the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes. Wetting fronts were recorded under different rainfall intensities, and the depth of rainfall infiltration was greater in the shaken slope than in the non-shaken slope because the former experienced a greater extreme rainfall intensity under the same early rainfall and rainfall duration conditions. At the beginning of the rainfall infiltration experiment, the pore water pressure in the slope was negative, and settling occurred at the top of the slope. With increasing rainfall, the pore water pressure changed from negative to positive, and cracks were observed on the back surface of the slope and the shear outlet of the landslide on the front of the slope. The shaken slope was more susceptible to crack formation than the non-shaken slope under the same rainfall conditions. A comparison of the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes under heavy rainfall revealed that cracks formed by earthquakes provided channels for infiltration. Soil particles in the cracks of slopes were washed away, and the pore water pressure increased rapidly, especially the transient pore water pressure in the slope caused by short-term concentrated rainfall which decreased rock strength and slope stability.     

Frequency analyses of annual extreme rainfall series from 5 min to 24 h

The parameter estimation methods of (1) moments, (2) maximum‐likelihood, (3) probability‐weighted moments (PWM) and (4) self‐determined PWM are applied to the probability distributions of Gumbel, general extreme values, three‐parameter log‐normal (LN3), Pearson‐3 and log‐Pearson‐3. The special method of computing parameters so as to make the sample skewness coefficient zero is also applied to LN3, and hence, altogether 21 candidate distributions resulted. The parameters of these distributions are computed first by original sample series of 14 successive‐duration annual extreme rainfalls recorded at a rain‐gauging station. Next, the parameters are scaled by first‐degree semi‐log or log‐log polynomial regressions versus rainfall durations from 5 to 1440 min (24 h). Those distributions satisfying the divergence criterion for frequency curves are selected as potential distributions, whose better‐fit ones are determined by a conjunctive evaluation of three goodness‐of‐fit tests. Frequency tables, frequency curves and intensity–duration–frequency curves are the outcome. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan,Indonesia

Abstract

The effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, is demonstrated. This research used rainfall data collected between 1978 and 2008. The results suggest a relationship between ENSO events and the trend in rainfall observed in the study area. Further analyses show that El Niño events have a stronger effect on the rainfall compared to La Niña events. El Niño events were also correlated to the increase in the number of days with less than 1 mm of rainfall in the dry season. The analysis reveals that the impact of El Niño events on rainfall in dry seasons is intensifying annually. Furthermore, ENSO events are not the only factors affecting rainfall trends in the observed area. Other factors, such as deforestation, may also affect the trend.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Susilo, G.E., Yamamoto, K., Imai, T., Ishii, Y., Fukami, H., and Sekine, M., 2013. The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 539–548.     

Analysis and modeling of spatial correlation structure in small-scale rainfall in Central Oklahoma

Spatial correlation structure in small-scale rainfall is analyzed based on a dense cluster of raingauges in Central Oklahoma. This cluster, called the EVAC PicoNet, consists of 53 gauges installed in 25 measurement stations covering an area of about 3 km by 3 km. Two raingauges are placed in 24 stations and five in the central station. Three aspects of the estimated spatial correlation functions are discussed: dependence on time-scale ranging from 1 min to 24 h, inter-storm variability, and dependence on rainfall intensity. The results show a regular dependence of the correlogram parameters on the averaging time-scale, large differences of the correlograms in the individual storms, and the dominance of storms with high spatial variability on the average large sample characteristics. The authors also demonstrate and discuss the ambiguities in correlation estimates conditioned on rainfall intensities. The findings of this study have implications for raingauge network design, rainfall modeling, and conclusive evaluation of radar and satellite estimates of rainfall.     

Kinetic energy–rainfall intensity relationship for Central Cebu, Philippines for soil erosion studies

In the study of soil erosion, specifically on detachment of soil particles by raindrop impact, kinetic energy is a commonly suggested indicator of the raindrop's ability to detach soil particles from the soil mass. Since direct measurement of kinetic energy requires sophisticated and costly instruments, the alternative approach is to estimate it from rainfall intensity. The present study aims at establishing a relationship between rainfall intensity and kinetic energy for rainfalls in Central Cebu, Philippines as a preface of a wider regional investigation.

Drop size distributions of rainfalls were measured using the disdrometer RD-80. There are two forms of kinetic energy considered here. One is kinetic energy per unit area per unit time (KE_R, J m⁻² h⁻¹) and the other is kinetic energy per unit area per unit depth (KE, J m⁻² mm⁻¹). Relationships between kinetic energy per unit area per unit time (KE_R) and rainfall intensity (I) were obtained using linear and power relations. The exponential model and the logarithmic model were fitted to the KE–I data to obtain corresponding relationships between kinetic energy per unit area per unit depth of rainfall (KE) and rainfall intensity (I). The equation obtained from the exponential model produced smaller standard error of estimates than the logarithmic model.     

Base flow‐driven shifts in tropical stream temperature regimes across a mean annual rainfall gradient

Climate change is expected to affect air temperature and watershed hydrology, but the degree to which these concurrent changes affect stream temperature is not well documented in the tropics. How stream temperature varies over time under changing hydrologic conditions is difficult to isolate from seasonal changes in air temperature. Groundwater and bank storage contributions to stream flow (i.e., base flow [BF]) buffer water temperatures against seasonal and daily fluctuations in solar radiation and air temperature, whereas rainfall‐driven runoff produces flooding events that also influence stream temperature. We used a space‐for‐time substitution to examine how shifts in BF and runoff alter thermal regimes in streams by analyzing hydrological and temperature data collected from similar elevations (400–510 m above sea level) across a 3,500‐mm mean annual rainfall gradient on Hawai'i Island. Sub‐daily water temperature and stream flow gathered for 3 years were analyzed for daily, monthly, and seasonal trends and compared with air temperature measured at multiple elevations. Results indicate that decreases in median BF increased mean, maximum, and minimum water temperatures as well as daily temperature range. Monthly and daily trends in stream temperature among watersheds were more pronounced than air temperature, driven by differences in groundwater inputs and runoff. Stream temperature was strongly negatively correlated to BF during the dry season but not during the wet season due to frequent wet season runoff events contributing to total flow. In addition to projected increases in global air temperature, climate driven shifts in rainfall and runoff are likely to affect stream flow and groundwater recharge, with concurrent influences on BF resulting in shifts in water temperature that are likely to affect aquatic ecosystems.     

Drop size distribution and kinetic energy load of rainfall events in the highlands of the Central Rift Valley,Ethiopia

Abstract

Knowledge of rainfall characteristics is important for estimating soil erosion in arid areas. We determined basic rainfall characteristics (raindrop size distribution, intensity and kinetic energy), evaluated the erosivity of rainfall events, and established a relationship between rainfall intensity I and volume-specific kinetic energy KE_vol for the Central Rift Valley area of the Ethiopian highlands. We collected raindrops on dyed filter paper and calculated KE_vol and erosivity values for each rainfall event. For most rainfall intensities the median volume drop diameter (D₅₀) was higher than expected, or reported in most studies. Rainfall intensity in the region was not high, with 8% of rain events exceeding 30 mm h^-1. We calculated soil erosion from storm energy and maximum 30-min intensity for soils of different erodibility under conditions of fallow (unprotected soil), steep slope (about 9%) and no cover and management practice on the surface, and determined that 3 MJ mm ha^-1 h^-1 is the threshold erosivity, while erosivity of >7 MJ mm ha^-1 h^-1 could cause substantial erosion in all soil types in the area.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate Editor Q. Zhang     

A daily rainfall occurrence process

A model for the periodic (annual cycle), discrete rainfall occurrence process is presented. Using this model the probabilistic properties of the process in -day intervals can be investigated. In such an interval the rainfall occurrence process is approximated by some stationary processa _t ,tIN. The processa _t ,tIN is described by the distributions of the lengths of wet and dry sequences. It is assumed that the lengths of successive wet and dry sequences are independent. For this process the distribution of the number of wet days in -day intervals is calculated. The model is fitted to 50-year rainfall data from Wroclaw, Poland. Rainfall amounts of 0.1, 1.0 and 2.0 mm are considered as thresholds defining a wet day. To estimate the distribution of the length of wet and dry sequences the family of Pascal distribution is chosen.     

A review of rainfall interception modelling

This paper is a review of physically-based rainfall interception modelling. Fifteen models were selected, representing distinct concepts of the interception process. Applications of these models to field data sets published before March 2008 are also analysed. We review the theoretical basis of the different models, and give an overview of the models’ characteristics. The review is designed to help with the decision on which model to apply to a specific data set. The most commonly applied models were found to be the original and sparse Gash models (69 cases) and the original and sparse Rutter models (42 cases). The remaining 11 models have received much less attention, but the contribution of the Mulder model should also be acknowledged. The review reveals the need for more modelling of deciduous forest, for progressively more sparse forest and for forest in regions with intensive storms and the consequent high rainfall rates. The present review also highlights drawbacks of previous model applications. Failure to validate models, the few comparative studies, and lack of consideration given to uncertainties in measurements and parameters are the most outstanding drawbacks. Finally, the uncertainties in model input data are rarely taken into account in rainfall interception modelling.