Palaeoseismic history of the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault (Erzincan,Turkey): Implications for the seismicity of the Yedisu seismic gap

The North Anatolian Fault showed a remarkable seismic activity especially between 1939 and 1999, when the westward migrating earthquake sequence created surface ruptures more than 1000 km, leaving unbroken only the Marmara segments, to the west, and the Yedisu Segment, to the east along the main strand of the fault. To understand the palaeoseismicity of the Yedisu Seismic Gap, we undertook trench investigations close to the village of Balaban Sar?kaya, on the western part of the Yedisu Segment. We found evidence for at least five surface faulting earthquakes, from which only two are correlated with the 18 July 1784 CE and 27 June 1583 CE historical events. Although the surface rupture of the 1784 CE was reported by other trench studies, the evidence of 1583 CE event is presented for the first time. In consideration with other historical earthquakes, affecting the region east of Erzincan, we suggest that this particular section of the North Anatolian Fault may be in a seismically quiescent period, following a cluster of earthquakes in its near history. In order to test this hypothesis, further studies are needed to increase our knowledge on the temporal and spatial seismic behaviour of the Yedisu Segment, which has potential to create an earthquake with M _w ~7.2 in the near future.     

Dynamics of the circulation in the Sea of Marmara: numerical modeling experiments and observations from the Turkish straits system experiment

During September 2008 and February 2009, the NR/V Alliance extensively sampled the waters of the Sea of Marmara within the framework of the Turkish Straits System (TSS) experiment coordinated by the NATO Undersea Research Centre. The observational effort provided an opportunity to set up realistic numerical experiments for modeling the observed variability of the Marmara Sea upper layer circulation at mesoscale resolution over the entire basin during the trial period, complementing relevant features and forcing factors revealed by numerical model results with information acquired from in situ and remote sensing datasets. Numerical model solutions from realistic runs using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) produce a general circulation in the Sea of Marmara that is consistent with previous knowledge of the circulation drawn from past hydrographic measurements, with a westward meandering current associated with a recurrent large anticyclone. Additional idealized numerical experiments illuminate the role various dynamics play in determining the Sea of Marmara circulation and pycnocline structure. Both the wind curl and the strait flows are found to strongly influence the strength and location of the main mesoscale features. Large displacements of the pycnocline depth were observed during the sea trials. These displacements can be interpreted as storm-driven upwelling/downwelling dynamics associated with northeasterly winds; however, lateral advection associated with flow from the Straits also played a role in some displacements.     

Şarköy-Mürefte 1912 Earthquake's Tsunami, extension of the associated faulting in the Marmara Sea, Turkey

The historical tsunamis in the Marmara Seawere mainly caused by earthquakes andneeded to be documented. Following 1999Izmit earthquake occurred at the EasternMarmara region, a complete inventory ofactive faults in the Marmara Sea regionbecame much more stressed. To the west, thelatest event is 09.08.1912arköy-Mürefte Earthquake. Itoccurred on the active Ganos Fault zone andwas one of the largest earthquakes in theBalkans. The eastern termination of theassociated faulting is in the deep WestMarmara Trough, westernmost of thesuccessive basins forming the Marmara Sea.On the basis of recent multibeam bathymetryand seismic reflection data, estimatedtotal length of the surface rupture isabout 56 km. The historical data reviewedfrom library and archive documents,geological field surveys and offshoregeophysical investigations have shown thatthe 1912 earthquake produced a tsunami. Inaddition a seabed dislocation, the sourceof 1912 tsunami can also be assigned to thesediment slumps appearing in the form ofechelon landslide prisms along the southernslopes of the West Marmara Trough.     

Earthquake hazard in Marmara Region, Turkey

Earthquake hazard in the Marmara Region, Turkey has been investigated using time-independent probabilistic (simple Poissonian) and time-dependent probabilistic (renewal) models. The study culminated in hazard maps of the Marmara Region depicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations (SA)'s at 0.2 and 1 s periods corresponding to 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. The historical seismicity, the tectonic models and the known slip rates along the faults constitute the main data used in the assignment. Based on recent findings it has been possible to provide a fault segmentation model for the Marmara Sea. For the main Marmara Fault this model essentially identifies fault segments for different structural, tectonic and geometrical features and historical earthquake occurrences. The damage distribution and pattern of the historical earthquakes have been carefully correlated with this fault segmentation model. The inter-event time period between characteristic earthquakes in these segments is consistently estimated by dividing the seismic slip estimated from the earthquake catalog by the GPS-derived slip rate of 22±3 mm/yr. The remaining segments in the eastern and southern Marmara region are also identified using recent geological, geophysical studies and historical earthquakes. The model assumes that seismic energy along the segments is released by characteristic earthquakes. For the probabilistic studies characteristic earthquake based recurrence relationships are used. Assuming normal distribution of inter-arrival times of characteristic earthquakes, the ‘mean recurrence time’, ‘covariance’ and the ‘time since last earthquake’ are developed for each segment. For the renewal model, the conditional probability for each fault segment is calculated from the mean recurrence interval of the characteristic earthquake, the elapsed time since the last major earthquake and the exposure period. The probabilities are conditional since they change as a function of the time elapsed since the last earthquake. For the background earthquake activity, a spatially smoothed seismicity is determined for each cell of a grid composed of cells of size 0.005°×0.005°. The ground motions are determined for soft rock (NEHRP B/C boundary) conditions. Western US-based attenuation relationships are utilized, since they show a good correlation with the attenuation characteristics of ground motion in the Marmara region. The possibility, that an event ruptures several fault segments (i.e. cascading), is also taken into account and investigated by two possible models of cascading. Differences between Poissonian and renewal models, and also the effect of cascading have been discussed with the help of PGA ratio maps.     

SEISMIC STRATIGRAPHY IN HIGH RESOLUTION SHALLOW MARINE SEISMIC DATA OF THE GEMLIK GULF1

Seismic stratigraphy and sedimentological studies of the Gemlik Gulf in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, have been carried out. For this purpose, 19 lines totalling 189 km of excellent quality, high-resolution seismic data were recorded. Four major acoustic units were identified in the seismic profiles. Three were sedimentary units: irregular layered, cross-layered and well-layered; and the fourth was an acoustic basement which is probably composed of crystalline volcanic rocks. Some local areas in the Neogene formation contain gas accumulations. The formation of faults in E–W and N–S directions can be explained by the existence of shear stresses in the Gulf. The bathymetric map shows good accommodation with the shore line as does the tectonic map.     

Liquefaction of silts: the Adapazari criteria

Ground failures in the form of liquefaction, loss of bearing capacity and soil softening have been observed during the 1999 Marmara (Turkey) earthquake. Research to understand the failure phenomena has been carried out since the earthquakes. This paper attempts to provide explanations to the liquefaction failure of silts in seismic conditions. Findings from a large amount of data collected in the city of Adapazari on the physical and mechanical properties of soils is presented. A geomorphological map of the city has shown that there are surprising horizontal and vertical variations of the facies due to the activity of rivers in the past. Cases of liquefaction appear to have concentrated in former backswamp areas where silts and sandy silts were deposited by crevasse splays. Properties of the soils in zones of liquefaction and non-liquefaction have been determined down to a reasonable depth by measuring the average size, clay content and liquidity index as well as cone penetration resistances with porewater pressures to discover that there is significant discrepancy among those profiles susceptible to liquefaction and non-liquefying deposits. A set of “Adapazari Criteria” is proposed which is intended to improve over the “Chinese Criteria” and is simple enough to be universally applicable. This classification is similar to the existing criteria but emphasizes more on the clay content in addition to measuring the liquid limit and the liquidity index as well as the average size.     

A high-resolution modelling study of the Turkish Straits System

High-resolution modelling, for the first time, is used to study the basic hydrodynamics of the Turkish Straits System (TSS). Hydraulic controls in the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits are found to be essential in determining the coupled response of the TSS, which directly influences the interaction between the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The mixed baroclinic—barotropic response of the system is investigated as a function of the net barotropic flux and density stratification imposed at external boundaries, in the absence of atmospheric and tidal effects. The intense surface jet issuing from the Bosphorus is found to drive the basin-wide circulation of the Marmara Sea, varying with the net flux. The temporal response of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits picks up rather fast, within a day or two, thanks to hydraulic controls within straits, while the surface currents in the Marmara Sea only approach steady state after a few months. Model stratification and circulation features are validated against independent measurements and a stand-alone model of the Bosphorus.     

Spectral determination of source parameters in the Marmara Region

Ever since the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake, in which the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) was not able to correctly reflect the magnitude size in its preliminary report because of the saturation effect, a rapid and accurate determination of the earthquake becomes a very important issue. Therefore, in the framework of this study, an automatic determination of the moment magnitude was performed by using the displacement spectra of selected earthquakes in the Marmara Region. For this purpose, 39 three-component broadband stations from KOERI seismic network which recorded 174 earthquakes with magnitudes 2.5?≤?M?≤?5.0 in between 2006–2009 were used. Due to the importance of quality factor in determination of the moment magnitude with spectral analysis method, the quality factor was calculated for the whole region in the beginning. Source spectrum which was obtained by converting the velocity records to displacement spectra and moment magnitudes of earthquakes were determined by fitting this spectrum to classical Brune model. For this aim, an automatic procedure was utilized which based on minimizing the differences between observed and synthetic source spectra identified by the S waves. Besides moment magnitude and location parameters, some source parameters such as seismic moment, spectral level, corner frequency and stress drop were also calculated. Application of the method proves that determining the seismic moment from the source spectra is applicable not only for earthquakes with small magnitude but also moderate earthquakes as well.     

Insight into the Crustal Structure of the Eastern Marmara Region, NW Turkey

In order to investigate crustal structure beneath the eastern Marmara region, a seismic refraction survey was conducted across the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) zone in north west Turkey. Two reversed profiles across two strands of the NAF zone were recorded in the Armutlu Highland where a tectonically active region was formed by different continents. We used land explosions in boreholes and quarry blasts as seismic sources. A reliable crustal velocity and depth model is obtained from the inversion of first arrival travel times. The velocity-depth model will improve the positioning of the earthquake activities in this active portion of the NAF. A high velocity anomaly (5.6–5.8 km s⁻¹) in the central highland of Armutlu block and the low velocity (4.90 km s⁻¹) pattern north of Iznik Lake are the two dominant features. The crustal thickness is about 26 ± 2 km in the north and increases to about 32 ± 2 km beneath the central Armutlu block in the south. P-wave velocities are about 3.95 km s⁻¹ to 4.70 km s⁻¹ for the depth range between about 1 km and 5 km in the upper crust. The eastern Marmara region has different units of upper crust with velocities varying with depth to almost 8 km. The high upper crust velocities are associated with Armutlu metamorphic rocks, while the low velocity anomalies are due to unconsolidated sedimentary sequences. The western side of Armutlu block has complex tectonics and is well known for geothermal sources. If these sources are continuous throughout the portions of the crust, it may be associated with a granitic intrusion and deformation along the NAF zone. That is, the geothermal sources associated with the low velocity may be due to the occurrence of widespread shear heating, even shear melting. The presence of shear melting may indicate the presence of crustal fluid imposed by two blocks of the NAF system.     

蒙古国及其周边地区地震目录初步分析

本文以蒙古国及其周边地区M≥3.5级以上地震目录为基础数据,对该目录做了余震删除、时间完整性分析以及时间统计分布特征分析.结果表明,蒙古国M≥3.5级地震完整记录起始时间为1977年;M≥5.0级地震完整记录起始时间为1945年;M≥6.0级地震完整记录起始时间为1900年.删除余震后,蒙古国地震活动随时间变化基本平稳,时间统计分布特征符合泊松分布.并且在删除余震后,蒙古国地震活动仍有6年左右的丛集周期.     

Lateral variations of the modal (a/b) values for the different regions of the world

Several catalogues of global earthquakes reported for the time period from 1900 to 2000 have been compiled to examine lateral variations of the modal (a/b) values as derived from the Gutenberg–Richter empirical law. For this purpose, the world was divided into 27 different seismic regions in terms of tectonic environments. The parameters a and b were calculated using the least-squares method. The modal values computed for each region were used to produce a global map of the modal values using a grid space of 3°. The results show that a and b-values do not always supply much information about tectonic environments of the different regions. It is observed that the modal values estimated for different tectonic regions are consistent with seismicity of the world and represent global seismic sources better than a or b values. The highest modal values have been found in the oceanic subduction zones, and the lowest values in the oceanic ridges. Lowest b values are observed in trenches. These observations suggest that there is a correlation between apparent stresses and b values. Mapping of the modal values provides detailed images of the zones presenting low and high seismic activity and it may be used as a measure of seismic potential sources and relative hazard levels.     

The effect of Marmara (Izmit) Earthquake on the chemical oceanography of Izmit Bay,Turkey

After the Marmara (Izmit) Earthquake (magnitude 7.4) on 17 August 1999, chemical oceanographical characteristics of Izmit Bay were investigated in order to examine the possible effects of the refinery fire and uncontrolled entrance of domestic wastes to the surface waters. The dissolved oxygen (DO) content of the water column in August 1999 was the lowest value of all the measurement periods. It was found to be lower than the detection limit of the method (0.03 mgl(-1)) in the lower layer of eastern and central basins of the Bay, whereas the dissolved hydrogen sulfide (DHS) values were high, varying between 0.14 and 1.28 mgl(-1). The deficiency of DO and in turn formation of DHS were caused by the spreading petroleum from the refinery fire onto the sea surface and waste loads from the damaged municipal waste effluent system. The increasing organic/inorganic loads into the Bay stimulated the phytoplankton blooms which cause locally saturated DO concentrations in the eastern basin during autumn 1999. DO concentrations increased in lower layer waters during winter, whilst DHS formation disappeared when water originating from the Marmara Sea replenish the water column of Izmit Bay. However, DHS formation established again in August 2000.     

黄海及其沿岸历史地震初步研究

黄海及其边缘，经历史地震资料整理，地震参数估定与编目，截至1949年8月，共有M≥3级地震2187次，其中M≥43/4级地震259次，资料显示大致有三个相对集中活跃区，16世纪曾有过历史地震活动高潮。     

A generalized zero-lag cross-correlation approach for Rapid Earthquake Localization (REL): the example of the Istanbul Megacity Rapid Response System

A seismic antenna approach based on the generalized zero-lag cross-correlation method for rapid earthquake localization is proposed. This method is intended to be applied primarily for early warning, whenever the epicentre-to-target distances guarantee enough lead-time, rapid response purposes, and for those circumstances when a seismogenic area is not directly accessible with seismic stations or/and a network of instruments is concentrated within the area to be warned. The procedure we propose aims to provide useful information for magnitude determination and shake-maps generation. Indeed, it relies only on the first P-wave triggered arrivals from seismic stations, and is designed to work in real-time for the localization of events occurring outside of the network, that is, under conditions that might be detrimental to standard localization approaches. The procedure can by summarized by a few preliminary pre-seismic and real-time co-seismic steps. In the pre-seismic time-frame, for the cases where a large and dense network exists, waiting for all stations to trigger could dramatically reduce the available lead-time for the warning. Therefore, in such cases, the network could profitably be divided into sub-arrays, while also taking advantage of available earthquake recordings or simulated data sets. During the co-seismic time-frame, the main operations are: (1) individual on-site triggering by the P-wave of the seismic stations (e.g. by a STA/LTA algorithm); (2) real-time communication of key parameters (e.g. P-wave arrival time, and signal quality) to a main centre by SMS/WLAN; (3) setup of a pseudo data set, composed by a Gaussian function centred at the P-time, and with a bell width that can be set up proportional to the trigger signal-to-noise ratio (SNR); (4) calculation of a coherency map for the sub-array with triggered stations (preliminary sub-array location); and (5) stacking of coherency maps from the different sub-arrays (final location). By the stack of coherency maps estimated by the different sub-arrays in the last step of the procedure, the epicentral area’s location may be better constrained. This innovative approach for rapid localization was applied to both synthetic data, and real observations of two small earthquakes that occurred in the Marmara Sea, Turkey, which were recorded by the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System.     

利用Stao模型研究上海地区中小地震尾波

利用2011—2017年上海台网记录的上海及周边50km内的地震事件,使用Stao模型,计算了东滩台、大洋山台、佘山台、天平山台、秦皇山台所在地区的尾波值,结果显示:上海及邻近地区整体呈现西高东低的分布,在东部沿海地区较低,浦西地区较高;根据上海台网的地震事件记录,发现上海地区地震虽然基本呈现弥散性分布,并没有出现沿断裂分布趋势,而整体分布为东部沿海地区及海域多于浦西地区;结合上海地区尾波值分布规律分析表明,所得值数据能够较好地反映该区域地震活动性。     

Seismic coupling and structure of the Hellenic subduction zone in the Ionian Islands region

The western Hellenic arc has been commonly considered as a largely aseismic subduction zone, from the comparison of a small rate of shortening derived from the seismic moment release, with a large rate of convergence inferred from geology. Complete seismic coupling would instead be expected from models that consider a control by plate tectonic forces, because of the trenchward velocity of the Hellenic–Aegean upper plate now confirmed with GPS measurements. In the region of the Ionian Islands, a subduction interplate boundary has been recently imaged and its seismogenic downdip width suggested to be moderate, from reflection seismic profiling and local earthquake tomography. In the appropriate model for such an earthquake source region, which considers a single interplate fault and takes into account these features, the moderate seismic moment release is found consistent with complete seismic coupling of this subduction. The shallow downdip limit of the seismogenic zone can be interpreted as due to the interplate boundary being overlain there by the ductile deeper crust of the orogenically thickened Hellenides.     

Biogeographical distribution and diversity of bacterial and archaeal communities within highly polluted anoxic marine sediments from the marmara sea

Physicochemical and microbiological characterization of anoxic sediments taken from seven highly polluted sites of the Marmara Sea was carried out. The 16S rRNA based microbial community structure analyses were performed using domain-specific PCR followed by denaturant gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and sequencing of characteristic bands. The results showed that the microbial communities in these sediments were diverse and evenly distributed. Relating the prokaryotic and geochemical variables through statistical tools revealed that the microbial diversity in the sediments significantly related to depth, and S, Mn and Fe content of the sediments. Fermentative bacteria, denitrifying bacteria and hydrogenotrophic methanogens were dominant whereas sulfate reducing bacteria were absent in the DGGE patterns. This unusual microbial community structure implied that the newly discovered anaerobic methane oxidation coupled to denitrification process may occur in these subseafloor environments.     

Structure of Hawaiian volcanoes from seismic refraction data

Numerous seismic refraction traverses were carried out over the Hawaiian Islands to outline the structure of the volcanoes and determine the thickness of the layers of the crust. Results indicate that there is a progressive thickening of the crust in the area from younger to older volcanic islands. High velocity mantle-like material was detected under rift zones and in volcanic plugs. Volcanic regions were found to be intersected by flexure zones in the crust and in the mantle. The seismic refraction method, in conjunction with gravity and magnetic methods, was found to be successful in outlining the horizontal and vertical structures of rift zones and plugs of volcanoes.     

An alternative approach for the Istanbul earthquake early warning system

Two recent catastrophic earthquakes that struck the Marmara Region on 17 August 1999 (M_w=7.4) and 12 November 1999 (M_w=7.2) caused major concern about future earthquake occurrences in Istanbul and the Marmara Region. As a result of the preparations for an expected earthquake may occur around Istanbul region, an earthquake early warning system has been established in 2002 with a simple and robust algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified thresholds of time domain amplitudes and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) levels (Erdik et al., 2003 [1]). In order to improve the capability of Istanbul earthquake early warning system (IEEWS) for giving early warning of a damaging earthquake in the Marmara Region, we explored an alternative approach with the use of a period parameter (τ_c) and a high-pass filtered vertical displacement amplitude parameter (Pd) from the initial 3 s of the P waveforms as proposed by Kanamori (2005) [2] and Wu and Kanamori (2005) 3 and 4. The empirical relationships both between τ_c and moment magnitude (M_w), and between Pd and peak ground velocity (PGV) for the Marmara Region are presented. These relationships can be used to detect a damaging earthquake within seconds after the arrival of P waves, and can provide on-site warning in the Marmara Region.     

郯庐断裂带中南段地壳介质散射强度

本研究运用远震扰动场方法,利用134个数字地震观测台记录的10次远震记录对郯庐断裂带中南段地壳介质散射强度进行研究.结果表明,研究区上、下地壳介质散射强度呈现强烈的横向非均匀性特征,上、下地壳介质散射强度空间分布特征基本一致,散射强度高值区主要分布在华北断块区及秦岭—大别褶皱系的东部地区,散射强度低值区主要分布在下扬子断块区,散射强度峰值区主要分布在六安、莒南、嘉山、烟台等地.地壳介质散射强度与构造块体具有较强的相关性,构造块体不同,地壳介质散射强度则存在一定的差异;沿郯庐断裂带地壳介质散射强度呈现分段性特征,可分为潍坊至临沂段、临沂至嘉山段以及嘉山至九江段三段;地震活动与地壳介质散射强度有较强的相关性,地震多发生在地壳介质散射强度梯度带上,郯庐断裂带的潍坊至临沂段、嘉山至九江段地壳介质散射强度梯度较大,此段中小地震活动较强,而临沂至嘉山段地壳介质散射强度梯度小,中小地震活动相对较弱.地壳介质散射强度与构造块体、断裂构造及地震活动之间的相关性,除反映了深部介质物性可能存在差异外,也可能与深部介质物理形态、物质运移以及深部应力应变环境的变化有关.