我国沿海地区可持续发展能力的定量研究

区域可持续发展能力是一个综合性指标。文章选取48个变量作为我国东部沿海地区可持续发展能力的原始评价指标,并运用因子分析法对原始评价指标进行降维处理,从而得到能充分反映原始指标信息的5个综合指标。文章根据综合指标的得分值对沿海12个省市区可持续发展能力进行了排序,结合各省市区的地域分布划分出5种可持续发展类型区,并对各类型区可持续发展能力的主要构成因素及其相互关系进行了分析。     

An analysis of urban spatial structure using comprehensive prominence of irregular areas

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new notion on prominent areas of a city defined by two types of comprehensive prominence for identifying urban spatial structure. Not only geometric attributes and topological attributes but also thematic attributes of irregular areas (e.g. districts of a city) are used to define these indices. In the paper, first the topological prominence related to geometric attributes such as size, location, and shape of areas is constructed by spatial weight matrix. Second, for finding comprehensive prominences, the principle axis factor model is adopted, and the first factor score is defined as the comprehensive prominence 1. Then, the proportion of thematic attributes of each area occupied in across the city is used to define the comprehensive prominence 2. Finally, we use these comprehensive prominences to extract some important regions in Matsudo City of Chiba Prefecture in Japan. The areas composing those regions show a high topological prominence, have a large population, have many offices, and are located around the train station.     

中国省级国土空间利用质量评价:基于“三生”空间视角

目前城镇化进程中出现了城乡不协调、区域不均衡、生态破坏严重、国土空间利用质量低下等问题。为实现集约高效的生产空间、宜居适度的生活空间和山清水秀的生态空间,基于"三生"功能的理念,构建国土空间利用质量综合评价指数及其子系统生产、生活和生态空间利用质量指数;基于2012年中国内地省级截面数据,运用综合评价方法分析全国层面和省级层面国土空间利用质量综合评价指数的特征。结果表明:全国层面的"三生"空间利用质量不高,在省级层面的国土空间利用质量综合评价指数则具有显著的空间分异特征,东部地区的生产空间利用质量指数和生活空间利用质量指数高于中部地区,中部地区的又高于西部地区;而生态空间利用质量指数高值区主要集中在东北地区和东南沿海地区。     

Measurement for coordinated development of "four modernizations" and its efficiency of prefecture level cities or above in China

The efficient and coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization(so called "Sihua Tongbu" in China, and hereinafter referred to as "four modernizations") is not only a practical need but also an important strategic direction of integrating urban-rural development and regional development in recent China. This paper evaluated the comprehensive, coupling and coordinated developmental indices of "four modernizations" of China's 343 prefecture-level administrative units, and calculated their efficiency of "four modernizations" in 2001 and 2011. The efficiency evaluation index system was established. The efficiencies and their changing trend during the period 2001–2011 were investigated using the data envelopment analysis(DEA) model. Spatial-temporal pattern of the efficiency of China's prefecture-level units was explored by using exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA). Finally, the main influencing factors were revealed with the aid of geographically weighted regression(GWR) model. Results indicate that the comprehensive, coupling and coordinated developmental indices and efficiency of "four modernizations" of China's prefecture-level administrative units have obvious spatial differences and show diverse regional patterns. Overall, the efficiency is relatively low, and only few units with small urban populations and economic scale are in DEA efficiencies. The efficiency changing trends were decreasing during 2001–2011, with a transfer of high efficiency areas from inland to eastern coastal areas. The difference between urban and rural per capita investment in fixed assets boasts the greatest influence on the efficiency.     

两栖生计下中国流动人口城镇购房意愿的空间特征和影响因素

流动人口的城镇购房意愿和空间偏好直接关系到流动人口市民化的路径选择与城镇化的高质量发展.基于2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和统计数据,对比研究了流动人口流入地和流出地城镇购房意愿的空间特征和影响因素.研究发现:①流动人口城镇购房意愿具有层次性和两栖性特征,还有小部分流动人口拥有多地城镇购房意愿.②流入地和流出地...     

A landscape ecological perspective of the impacts of urbanization on urban green spaces in the Klang Valley

Urbanization is an inevitable process and the majority of the world's population are migrating into cities, particularly in developing countries. Urban development has expanded rapidly in expense of the already limited green spaces in the world. Urban green spaces (UGS) are crucial components of urban sustainability and are vital for enhancing our quality of living. This study aims at developing a systematic approach to monitor changes of the urban landscape and assessing the conditions of UGS in the Klang Valley. Remote sensing processing techniques were used to extract meaningful data from mid-resolution Landsat satellite images of 1989, 2001, and 2014. We utilised urbanization indices to measure the magnitude and speed of urban development, while landscape metrics were used to describe the composition and configuration of each classes in the landscape. The results revealed that UGS in the Klang Valley have increased by 318.02% in proportion to built-up areas (high density built-up (HDB) and low density built-up (LDB)) from 1989 to 2014. The percentage of UGS compared to both HDB and LDB in 1989, 2001, and 2014 is 12.62%, 19.43%, and 22.51%, respectively. However, the fragmentation of UGS increased by approximately 100% in two decades and mainly occurred in areas with higher HDB. Spatial patterns of UGS in the Klang Valley were described based on the landscape metrics used. The developed approach can assist urban planners and decision makers to obtain a synoptic yet comprehensive view of the urban landscape.     

Spatial patterns of seasonal scale trends in extreme hourly precipitation in South Africa

Hourly precipitation data from 1998 to 2007 spread across 102 stations in South Africa were analyzed for trends in extreme hourly precipitation events. The analyses were conducted at the seasonal scale for summer and winter for nine different variables. The results of our analysis showed predominantly positive trends during summer, with the strongest trends concentrated in the coastal areas in the southeast. The spatial variations in the trends were reversed during the winter season, with negative trends observed in the coastal areas and positive trends occurring in the interior. The summer patterns also overlap with areas experiencing overall increasing trends in annual extreme precipitation as well as a stronger diurnal cycle identified in recently published literature.     

试论美国汽车工业的国际化与空间格局

美国汽车工业经历了发展、兴旺、波折三个阶段，使国内的汽车工业的格局发生集中──分散──再集中的演变，但仍保持美国汽车国内市场的绝对优势。     

基于景观生态安全格局构建的城镇空间扩展模式研究——以江苏沿海地区为例

基于景观生态学的“格局-过程”理论,对维护江苏沿海地区地形地貌、水源涵养、生物多样性、游憩景观等生态系统服务的单一安全格局进行构建;根据“最小-最大约束”准则,通过镶嵌运算进行叠加,构建综合生态安全格局。运用MCR模型,设置并比对“生态安全模式”“经济发展模式”和“生态与经济协调模式”等不同模式对城镇空间扩展的影响,识别需严格保护的低安全水平区和未来城镇空间重点开发的高安全水平区。研究得出：“生态保护与经济发展”协调型模式更好平衡“生态-社会-经济”效益,合理确定城镇建设和产业发展空间,是城镇健康有序发展的最优模式。     

德国农业低地流域土地利用格局的空间解释变量的定量识别分析（英文）

Land use patterns arise from interactive processes between the physical environment and anthropogenic activities. While land use patterns and the associated explanatory variables have often been analyzed on the large scale, this study aims to determine the most important variables for explaining land use patterns in the 50 km~2 catchment of the Kielstau, Germany, which is dominated by agricultural land use. A set of spatially distributed variables including topography, soil properties, socioeconomic variables, and landscape indices are exploited to set up logistic regression models for the land use map of 2017 with detailed agricultural classes. Spatial validation indicates a reasonable performance as the relative operating characteristic(ROC) ranges between 0.73 and 0.97 for all land use classes except for corn(ROC = 0.68). The robustness of the models in time is confirmed by the temporal validation for which the ROC values are on the same level(maximum deviation 0.1). Non-agricultural land use is generally better explained than agricultural land use. The most important variables are the share of drained area, distance to protected areas, population density, and patch fractal dimension. These variables can either be linked to agriculture or the river course of the Kielstau.     

Network-constrained and category-based point pattern analysis for Suguo retail stores in Nanjing,China

The distribution of many geographical objects and events is affected by the road network; thus, network-constrained point pattern analysis methods are helpful to understand their space structures and distribution patterns. In this study, network kernel density estimation and network K-function are used to study retail service hot-spot areas and the spatial clustering patterns of a local retail giant (Suguo), respectively, in Nanjing city. Stores and roads are categorized to investigate the influence of weighting different categories of point events and network on the analysis. In addition, the competitive relation between Suguo and foreign-brand retail chains was revealed. The comprehensive analysis results derived from the combination of the first-order and second-order properties can be further used to examine the reasonability of the existing store distribution and optimize the locational choice of new stores.     

中国城市群人口流动问题探析——以沿海三大城市群为例

新型城镇化下着重以人为本的城市现代化建设,以沿海城市群为代表的三大核心城市群正在成为形成具有中国特色的区域发展模式与空间组合新模式。对沿海三大城市群城镇化过程中人口吸纳与流动过程的研究表明：① 城市群经济聚集的核心区域,人口聚集程度紧密且人口空间结构的集中化特征明显;② 城市群对流动人口吸纳能力不断增强,吸纳能力与城市群级别成正比;③ 在城市群区内人口流动结构的固定化方面,东部沿海城市是流动人口的首选区域,由西部向东部人口流入的趋势日益明显,人口流动将相对固定化,成为城镇人口的主要来源。这就需加强对城市群区内各大城市发展功能的深刻认识,并加强建设综合性城市管理数据库,分析城市群之间的内部联系及其城镇人口的合理安排,劳动力的地域分工与城市之间产业链的协作关系,以期达到更深刻的探索中国城市群的总体发育趋势的远大目标。     

21世纪初中国海岸带土地利用空间格局特征

基于GIS空间分析技术、条带分割法以及优势度和土地利用程度综合指数,分析了21世纪我国海岸带区域（海岸线向陆30km范围）土地利用的数量、结构、空间格局和集约化特征。研究表明：21世纪我国海岸带土地利用以耕地、林地和建设用地为主。距海远近不同,土地利用的结构特征和空间格局差异显著,水域和建设用地的向海特征最为显著,其次...     

陆海统筹背景下海岸带复合系统协调发展水平及影响机制研究——以温州市为例

陆海统筹是海洋强国建设的重要战略,针对陆海统筹核心区域——海岸带地区开展协调发展水平评价对推动海岸带可持续发展具有重要意义。论文从陆域和海域2个维度构建海岸带复合系统发展水平综合评价模型,利用耦合协调度、信息熵和有序度模型对温州市海岸带复合系统协调发展状况进行评价,并探析海岸带开发对温州市海岸带复合系统协调发展水平的影响机制,结果表明：① 陆域和海域子系统的发展指数总体呈现上升趋势,陆域子系统的高值区集中于温州主城区,低值区集中于温州中南部;陆域和海域子系统内部协调发展程度逐步上升,达到良好协调状态;海岸带复合系统耦合度接近甚至达到1,趋于良性共振耦合状态,耦合协调度也不断提升,达到良好协调状态。② 2010—2018年间海岸带复合系统信息熵逐步下降,有序度不断上升,协调发展趋势良好。③ 海岸带开发对海岸带复合系统协调发展水平的影响机制为提高陆海能源资源运输与利用能力、改变陆海生态环境、促进陆海产业集聚和加强子系统关联、推动陆海社会文化发展4个方面。     

基于情景的1951-2011年中国极端降水风险评估

随着全球气候变暖,极端降水的风险评估研究成为学界和各国政府广泛关注的热点问题,开展中国极端降水的风险评估研究可以为中国防灾减灾提供参考依据。本文从灾害风险评估视角,依据国际减灾战略（ISDR）的灾害风险评估模型,开展了中国极端降水的风险评估研究。首先,利用1951-2011年全国各站点逐日降水数据,采用Pearson-III方法,模拟不同重现期情景下极端降水量和频次分布,评估中国不同重现期下的极端降水危险性及空间分布;其次,基于人口和GDP指标,分析极端降水脆弱性及空间分布特征;在此基础上,评估了5年、10年、50年、100年一遇情景下中国极端降水风险及其空间分布特征。结果表明：① 中国极端降水危险性等级从东南沿海向西北内陆递减,5年一遇情景下,极端降水高危险区和低危险区的分界线大致与400 mm等降水线相同。② 中国极端降水脆弱性高的地区主要分布在人口稠密且经济发达的东部沿海大城市地区,特别是经济发达的长三角、珠三角和京津冀等城市群地区,以及中部地区的一些大城市。③ 不同情景下,中国极端降水风险等级均呈现由东南向西北方向降低。风险等级高和较高的地区主要位于黑河—腾冲线以东,中和低风险区位于该线以西,这与中国人口密度分布的胡焕庸线大体一致。     

区域协调发展背景下流动人口回流的空间意愿及其政策含义

人口空间分布格局的改变既是区域协调发展战略实施的结果,也是推进区域协调发展的重要手段之一。本文以流动人口的回流空间意愿作为切入点,采用全国性大规模抽样问卷调查数据,对流动人口回流的空间意愿、群体差异和影响因素进行研究,并探讨其对区域协调发展和新型城镇化的政策含义。研究发现,流动人口的回流意愿薄弱;对具有回流意愿的流动人口来说,回流空间的路径选择以返回原居地为主、乡镇中心和县城为辅。模型结果显示,流动人口回流空间选择不仅是其人力资本和流动经历正向选择的结果,也显著地受到流出地住房和流入地的就业收入和养老保险等因素的影响,而流出地的家庭需求和空间成本则无显著影响。在此背景下,政策制定者不能高估人口回流对人口流动空间格局和人口均衡发展的调整作用,也不能高估回流劳动力对流出地城镇化和城乡协调发展的促进作用,而应加强流出地城镇自我可持续发展的能力,吸引人口主动回流,以推进区域协调发展和新型城镇化战略的落实。     

20世纪以来广东基督教文化区的形成与演变

选取1920年和1990年两个历史断点,对广东基督教文化区历史演变过程进行对比分析。研究发现:经过19世纪的广泛传播,至20世纪20年代,广东基督教文化区格局已基本形成。从信徒数量和教堂堂点分布的集中度来看,珠江三角洲及西部沿海地区、潮汕地区和东江―梅江流域是广东基督教文化三大核心区。及至20世纪90年代,全省基督教核心区已经向粤东潮汕地区和粤东北客家地区偏移,一些原处外缘的地域和珠三角经济区内的新兴城市基督教文化实力也有增强。在广东基督教文化区内部变迁的复杂过程中,除了宗教派别因自身发展演化而做出的空间选择外,行政区划、政治制度、经济类型、移民和交通方式都起着较为重要的作用。     

中国沿海陆地自然保护区景观连接度评价

人类社会发展进入人新世时期,以人类活动为主导的高频率干扰和自然资源的高强度开发对生态环境造成严重威胁,提升自然保护区的景观连接度是缓解和应对外界干扰的关键手段之一。传统意义上景观连接度研究侧重于景观基质对物种迁徙的累积负向阻碍作用,评价体系中忽略了生物多样性对物种迁徙的正向支持作用。本文以中国沿海省份作为研究区域,将生物多样性空间分布作为生态系统关键功能的表征,并将其纳入景观连接度评价体系,构建了生态廊道的连通适宜性及生态支持力二维评价新方法,进一步分析人类活动干扰和物种空间分布对自然保护区景观连接度的影响。研究结果表明沿海地区人类活动对景观连接度的影响存在明显的边缘效应,即自然保护区边缘地带的人类干扰范围（46.46%）明显高于其内部区域,人类活动干扰使保护区面积减少约720.25 km²,且造成廊道起点和终点位置的改变。自然保护区边缘地带人类干扰导致了研究区域内95条廊道的连通适宜性下降;78条廊道的生态支持力有明显提升,“一降一升”的评价结果能有效地衡量景观基质对物种迁移的支持能力变化。基于景观基质阻碍和促进作用的二维评价可为中国未来自然保护区连通性和生物多样性保护提供更为全面的时空格局动态变化模拟,为优化自然保护区空间布局提供更为完善的景观连接度评估新方法。     

The Determinants of Crime in Tucson,Arizona1

This paper examines the geography of violent crime across the neighborhoods of Tucson and South Tucson, Arizona. The research is informed by the tenets of modern social disorganization theory, which has a strong ecological or environmental basis. Three different crime indices are computed; each represents an annual average during the five-year period 1995-1999. The most comprehensive index captures aggravated assaults, homicides, robberies, and sexual assaults. After providing a factor-ecological study of the study area, using 27 variables taken from the 1990 census, various regression models are developed to explain violent crime patterns. These models use a smaller array of ten demographic, economic, and social attributes to predict patterns at the block group level. A number of variables are found to be significant across all models, thereby providing further support for social disorganization theory. Stability in the signs and values of the estimates suggest that a general model of violent crime can be established for the study region. The paper closes with a short discussion of some public policy implications.     

基于集对分析的中国海洋战略性新兴产业支撑条件评价

21世纪以来,在海洋科技和海洋新兴产业发展的助推作用下,海洋战略性新兴产业逐渐成为全球海洋经济一个新的增长点。本文从基础、经济、科技、人才、政府和环境支撑6个方面提出建立海洋战略性新兴产业支撑条件评价指标体系,运用AHP-EVM赋权法,结合集对分析,对中国大陆沿海11个省、市、自治区支撑条件进行定量评价,并运用模糊C均值聚类分析法对评价结果进行分类,结果表明：①沿海省市间的支撑条件差距较明显,广东、山东和上海处于第一层次,在空间分布上呈现出“三足鼎立”的格局,各子支撑条件全面均衡发展;第二层次的江苏、辽宁综合支撑条件较好;第三层次的福建、浙江、天津综合支撑条件一般,缺乏对综合支撑条件贡献较大的优势子支撑条件;第四层次的河北、广西、海南综合支撑条件差,子支撑条件劣势突出。②通过沿海省市6大子支撑条件的对比分析,得出了各省市支撑条件的优劣势,为沿海各省市制定海洋战略性新兴产业发展规划和布局提供了科学依据。