Volcanic Risk Assessment and Mapping in the Vesuvian Area Using GIS

This paper assesses the risk to people and property from lava flow hazard in the Vesuvian area of Italy using a Geographical Information System (GIS). The intense urbanisation and dense population near Mt. Vesuvius make the area very hazardous. Due to the large amount of available data, GIS is an essential tool to facilitate risk evaluation and constant monitoring of the zone. This analysis is based mainly on a lava flow hazard map of Mt. Vesuvius, determined from volcanic activity between 1631 and 1944. A land-use zonation map of the area was created in order to show areal distribution of the resources, built-up centres and population. For each of the 17 municipalities in the area, demographic and urban data were entered into the GIS database and linked to each appropriate geographic unit in order to create a set of reference maps at the 1:50 000 scale. The lava flow hazard map was overlain on the land use map, and spatial and numerical information of risk were extracted from the resulting maps.     

LiDAR-based digital terrain analysis of an area exposed to the risk of lava flow invasion: the Zafferana Etnea territory, Mt. Etna (Italy)

The town of Zafferana Etnea, located on the southeastern slope of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy), has been repeatedly threatened by lava flows in recent centuries. The last serious threat occurred during the 1991–1993 eruption, when the lava front came to a halt only 1.7 km from the centre of town. Morphostructural data derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) surveys carried out on Etna in 2005 have enabled us to evaluate the risk of lava invasion in a section (16 km²) of the Zafferana Etnea territory. Qualitative and quantitative results are obtained combining the information derived from LiDAR analysis with geological, morphological and structural data using geographic information systems technology (GIS). The study quantifies in unprecedented detail the areal extent and volume of forested and urban areas and its degree of exposure to different levels of hazard from future lava invasion. Nearly 52% of the urban texture fall into areas of moderate to high risk from lava invasion. Future land use planning should take these findings into account and promote new development preferentially in areas of lower risk.     

Alert system to mitigate tephra fallout hazards at Mt. Etna Volcano,Italy

Volcanic eruptions may create a wide range of risks in inhabited areas and, as a consequence, major economic damage to the surrounding territory. An example of volcanic hazard was given between 1998 and 2001 by Mt. Etna volcano, in Italy, with its frequent paroxysmal explosive activity that caused more than a hundred fire-fountain episodes. In the period January–June 2000, in particular, 64 lava fountains took place at the Southeast Crater. During the most intense explosive phase of each episode, a sustained column often formed, reaching up to 6 km above the eruptive vent. Then, the column started to expand laterally causing more or less copious tephra fallout on the slopes of Etna; ash and lapilli, therefore, constituted a serious danger for vehicular and air traffic. A software and hardware warning system was developed to mitigate the volcanic hazard indicating the areas affected by potential ash and lapilli fallout. The alert system was mainly based on the good correspondence between the pattern of volcanic tremor amplitude and the evolution of explosive activity. When a fixed tremor threshold was exceeded, a semiautomatic process started to send faxes to Civil Defence and Municipalities directly affected by tephra fallout, together with information on wind directions from the Meteorological Office. The application of this methodology, during the last 14 eruptive episodes in 2000 and the 14 events occurred in 2001, demonstrated the good correspondence between the forecasts on the areas affected by tephra fallout and the effective tephra distribution on land. Despite the integrity of the performance provided by the alert system, small discrepancies occurred in the technical procedure of alerting, for which possible solutions have been discussed. The improvement of this type of system, could become basic for the Etnean region and be proposed for similar volcanic areas throughout the world.     

长白山火山灾害及其对大型工程建设的影响

长白山火山是世界著名的活火山,历史时期有过多次喷发,有再次爆发的危险.长白山火山最大的一次爆发发生在公元1199-1200年,这次大爆发的火山灰最远到达距其1 000km远的日本北部.依据这次大爆发由火山喷发空中降落堆积物、火山碎屑流和火山泥流造成的巨大火山灾害,预测了长白山火山未来爆发火山灾害的类型、强度和范围,并编制了长白山火山未来爆发火山喷发空中降落堆积物灾害预测图、火山碎屑流灾害预测图和火山泥流灾害预测图.该研究可预防和减轻火山灾害,指导核电站等大型工程选址.     

Hazard assessment at San Martín volcano based on geological record, numerical modeling, and spatial analysis

The San Martín shield volcano, located in the Los Tuxtlas Volcanic Field, has experienced effusive shield-building activity, as well as explosive eruptions, as evidenced by direct observations during the last eruption in 1793. The threat to the surrounding villages consists principally of lahars, especially because of the tropical climate in the region. Ash fallout and lava flows represent additional hazards. In addition, the surrounding Quaternary monogenetic field includes more than 300 scoria cones and about 40 explosion craters (mainly maars) that also represent a hazard source. In the present study we constructed hazard maps using field data, orthophotos, spatial analysis, and specialized software (LAHARZ and HAZMAP) to deliminate lahar inundation zones, areas that could potentially be affected by ash fallout (including the evaluation of houses prone to roof collapse due to ash load), and the most susceptible areas for hosting future monogenetic vent formation.     

全球主要火山灾害及其分布特征

本文研究了火山灾害各种致灾因子的物理过程和灾害特点,根据文献中记载的全球火山灾害,在进行火山灾害分区研究的基础上,研究了全球火山灾害分布特征.全球主要的火山灾害分布在8个主要区域.有记载的火山灾害在热带占73%,远高于火山喷发分布于热带区的比例.全球两个最强烈的火山灾害分布区都是围绕着位于板块结合部表现为复杂构造结的班达海和加勒比海,而且每一个灾害区都有3条分支.热带区第3个灾害区为中非区,地幔上隆是这里主要的动力学背景.本文还研究了1700年以来火山灾害时间分布特征,以及1993年以来各种火山灾害发生频次.     

Potential loading damage to industrial storage tanks due to volcanic ash fallout

The phenomenon of volcanic fallout ash from Mt. Etna in Sicily (Italy) is well known and frequent in recent years, as in the period 2001–2004. As a consequence, significant problems for the population, road, rail and air traffic and production activities have occurred. The industrial areas of Catania and Augusta-Priolo, located in south eastern Sicily, might be involved during particular weather conditions. This paper aims at determining the potential scenarios of damage to industrial facilities caused by volcanic ash fallout. The work has been focused on the study of both fixed and floating roof storage tanks, containing flammable liquids, and examines extreme failures damage causing the greatest loss of containment for these facilities. To include scenarios arising from natural phenomena (Na-Tech events) in the standard risk assessment procedure, the estimation of the vulnerability of these facilities is necessary. The study has been applied to the area surrounding Mt. Etna, and the procedure can also be extended to other case studies.     

Effusive Activity at Mount Etna Volcano (Italy) During the 20th Century: A Contribution to Volcanic Hazard Assessment

Mount Etna is an open conduit volcano, characterised by persistent activity, consisting of degassing and explosive phenomena at summit craters, frequent flank eruptions, and more rarely, eccentric eruptions. All eruption typologies can give rise to lava flows, which represent the greatest hazard by the volcano to the inhabited areas. Historical documents and scientific papers related to the 20th century effusive activity have been examined in detail, and volcanological parameters have been compiled in a database. The cumulative curve of emitted lava volume highlights the presence of two main eruptive periods: (a) the 1900–1971 interval, characterised by a moderate slope of the curve, amounting to 436 × 10⁶ m³ of lava with average effusion rate of 0.2 m³/s and (b) the 1971–1999 period, in which a significant increase in eruption frequency is associated with a large issued lava volume (767 × 10⁶ m³) and a higher effusion rate (0.8 m³/s). The collected data have been plotted to highlight different eruptive behaviour as a function of eruptive periods and summit vs. flank eruptions. The latter have been further subdivided into two categories: eruptions characterised by high effusion rates and short duration, and eruptions dominated by low effusion rate, long duration and larger volume of erupted lava. Circular zones around the summit area have been drawn for summit eruptions based on the maximum lava flow length; flank eruptions have been considered by taking into account the eruptive fracture elevation and combining them with lava flow lengths of 4 and 6 km. This work highlights that the greatest lava flow hazard at Etna is on the south and east sectors of the volcano. This should be properly considered in future land-use planning by local authorities.     

The development of compound lava fields at Mount Etna

The formation of compound lava fields is a common feature of basaltic volcanic areas such as Mount Etna and Hawaii. It is generally promoted by a breakin-slope which results into a decrease of the mean flow velocity and the rapid adjustment to new rheological conditions. In fact, on a steep slope the flow is generally focused into long-lived lava tubes or channels. On the contrary, in correspondence of a flat ground the propagation of a lava field is guaranteed by the continuos opening of new ephemeral vents, and by the overlapping of lava lobes or tongues the length of which is order of 10⁻¹−10² m. At Mount Etna these flow units show a complex structure which reflects the existence of a central plug zone and lateral shear zones, and an internal structure characterized by a succession of lava layers separated by gas-rich layers which occur in correspondence of vesicle alignments. Such internal structure insulates the active moving core and preserves high lava temperatures, favoring the advancement of the flow units. The evolution of a compound lava field may be thus envisaged as a spatial and temporal succession of lava tubes. An example of this situation may be found in the 1983 and 1991–93 Etnean eruptions, where the propagation of long-lived compound lava fields through a great number of small subarterial flow units gave origin to a source of natural hazards for some of the communities living on the flanks of the volcano. The detailed study of the structure of the described lava flows helps understand their emplacement dynamics and evaluate the associated volcanic, hazard.     

Physical Modelling and Human Survival in Pyroclastic Flows

Volcanic eruptions increasingly present catastrophic natural risks with hundreds of millions of people now living in areas of active volcanism and major conurbations around active eruptive centres. Interdisciplinary studies in disaster reduction have an important role in volcanic emergency management through advancing our understanding of the physical impacts of eruptive phenomena and the causes of death and injury in explosive eruptions. Numerical modelling of pyroclastic flows, amongst the most destructive of eruptive phenomena, provides new opportunities to improve the evaluation of the potential destructiveness of volcanic events and their human impacts in densely populated areas. In this work, the results of numerical modelling of pyroclastic flow propagation at Vesuvius have been analysed in terms of the physical parameters (temperature, ash in air concentration, and dynamic pressure) that are most critical for human survival. Our numerical simulations of eruptions of Vesuvius indicate that a large area exists where total destruction may not be inevitable in small to medium scale events, a finding that has prompted us to explore further the implications for human survival as part of an interdisciplinary approach to disaster reduction. The lessons of modelling at Vesuvius should be integrated into civil protection plans for other urban centres threatened by volcanoes.     

Hazard assessment at Mount Etna using a hybrid lava flow inundation model and satellite-based land classification

Using a lava flow emplacement model and a satellite-based land cover classification, we produce a map to allow assessment of the type and quantity of natural, agricultural and urban land cover at risk from lava flow invasion. The first step is to produce lava effusion rate contours, i.e., lines linking distances down a volcano??s flank that a lava flow will likely extend if fed at a given effusion rate from a predetermined vent zone. This involves first identifying a vent mask and then running a downhill flow path model from the edge of every pixel around the vent mask perimeter to the edge of the DEM. To do this, we run a stochastic model whereby the flow path is projected 1,000 times from every pixel around the vent mask perimeter with random noise being added to the DEM with each run so that a slightly different flow path is generated with each run. The FLOWGO lava flow model is then run down each path, at a series of effusion rates, to determine likely run-out distance for channel-fed flow extending down each path. These results are used to plot effusion rate contours. Finally, effusion rate contours are projected onto a land classification map (produced from an ASTER image of Etna) to assess the type and amount of each land cover class falling within each contour. The resulting maps are designed to provide a quick look-up capability to assess the type of land at risk from lava extending from any location at a range of likely effusion rates. For our first (2,000 m) vent zone case used for Etna, we find a total of area of ~680 km² is at risk from flows fed at 40 m³ s^?1, of which ~6 km² is urban, ~150 km² is agriculture and ~270 km² is grass/woodland. The model can also be run for specific cases, where we find that Etna??s 1669 vent location, if active today, would likely inundate almost 11 km² of urban land, as well as 15.6 km² of agricultural land, including 9.5 km² of olive groves and 5.2 km² of vineyards and fruit/nut orchards.     

Merapi (Java,Indonesia): anatomy of a killer volcano

Merapi is Indonesia's most dangerous volcano with a history of deadly eruptions. Over the past two centuries, the volcanic activity has been dominated by prolonged periods of lava dome growth and intermittent gravitational or explosive dome failures to produce pyroclastic flows every few years. Explosive eruptions, such as in 2010, have occurred occasionally during this period, but were more common in pre‐historical time, during which a collapse of the western sector of the volcano occurred at least once. Variations in magma supply from depth, magma ascent rates and the degassing behaviour during ascent are thought to be important factors that control whether Merapi erupts effusively or explosively. A combination of sub‐surface processes operating at relatively shallow depth inside the volcano, including complex conduit processes and the release of carbon dioxide into the magmatic system through assimilation of carbonate crustal rocks, may result in unpredictable explosive behaviour during periods of dome growth. Pyroclastic flows generated by gravitational or explosive lava dome collapses and subsequent lahars remain the most likely immediate hazards near the volcano, although the possibility of more violent eruptions that affect areas farther away from the volcano cannot be fully discounted. In order to improve hazard assessment during future volcanic crises at Merapi, we consider it crucial to improve our understanding of the processes operating in the volcano's plumbing system and their surface manifestations, to generate accurate hazard zonation maps that make use of numerical mass flow models on a realistic digital terrain model, and to utilize probabilistic information on eruption recurrence and inundation areas.     

松辽盆地徐家围子断陷营城组火山岩相和火山机构分析

徐家围子断陷营城组火山岩极为发育。文章通过对火山岩的岩芯观察、薄片鉴定、岩芯测试及测井资料、二维、三维地震资料的综合分析 ,将营城组火山岩盆地分为 3大相区 ,即火山喷发区、过渡区和沉积区。火山喷发区岩性由各种熔岩、火山碎屑岩和少量砂砾岩组成 ;过渡区岩性以火山碎屑岩与沉积岩互层为特征 ,夹少量火山熔岩 ;沉积区岩性包括砂砾岩、砂岩、粉砂岩和泥岩。火山喷发区内可识别出 8种类型的火山岩相 (空落相、溢流相、基底涌流相、火山碎屑流相、火山泥石流相、火山沉积相、次火山相、隐爆角砾岩相 )和 3种类型的火山机构 (层火山、微型盾火山和渣锥火山 )。不同类型的火山机构具有不同火山作用、岩相分布特征和含油气性。因此火山岩相及火山机构分析对火山作用研究和油气勘探均有重要意义。     

The 18.7 ka phreatomagmatic flank eruption on Etna (Italy): relationship between eruptive activity and sedimentary basement setting

This paper documents a phreatomagmatic flank eruption that occurred 18 700 ± 100 a BP , on the lower north-eastern slope of Etna during the Ellittico volcano activity, which produced fall and surge deposits. This type of eruption is connected to a sedimentary basement ridge at Etna. The interaction between the rising magma and the shallow groundwater hosted in the volcanic pile overlying the impermeable sediments resulted in phreatomagmatic instead of strombolian activity. Three eruptive phases are distinguished based on field and analytical data: (i) an explosive phreatomagmatic opening, (ii) a main phase producing coarse lithic-rich fallout and a strombolian deposit, and (iii) the final pulsating surge-forming phase. The discovery of this phreatomagmatic flank eruption, which occurred at lower altitude, raises important issues for previous hazard assessments at Etna.     

中国火山灾害区划研究历史回顾与未来展望

火山灾害区划是防御和减轻火山灾害的一种有效的方法.以中国境内规模最大、喷发危险性最高、潜在火山灾害最强的长白山天池火山为例,回顾我国火山灾害区划研究历史,讨论典型火山喷发活动引起的主要火山灾害类型、成灾机制和灾害效应,总结不同历史阶段各种不同类型火山灾害区划图的优缺点,并结合目前国际上火山灾害区划的研究现状和编图技术,对我国未来编制具有概率含义的火山灾害区划图的思路提出展望.     

The Hianana Volcanics: Remnants of a Late Permian tuff ring and lava flow,Coombadjha Volcanic Complex,northeastern New South Wales

The Hianana Volcanics consist of bedded tuff and dacitic lava that form a locally mappable unit within the extensive, Late Permian silicic volcanic sequence of northeastern New South Wales. Principal components of the bedded tuff are crystal and volcanic lithic fragments ranging from coarse ash to lapilli, accompanied by variable amounts of fine ash matrix. Well denned plane parallel thin bedding is characteristic. Sandwave bed forms, including low‐angle cross‐beds and wavy beds, are confined to an area of 2–3 km² coinciding with the thickest sections (70 m) of bedded tuff. A high‐aspect ratio flow of porphyritic dacitic lava overlies the bedded tuff in the same area. The setting, lithofacies, extent and geometry of the bedded tuffs of the Hianana Volcanics are comparable with modern tuff rings which are composed of the deposits from base surges generated by explosive phreatomagmatic eruptions at primary volcanic vents. Many of these have also discharged lava late in their activity. Proximal parts of the Hianana tuff ring were buried by the porphyritic lava after the phreatomagmatic eruptions had ceased. In more distal sections, the bedded tuff is less than 10 m thick and dominantly comprises fine grained, plane parallel, very thin beds and laminae; these features suggest an origin by fallout from ash clouds that accompanied the phreatomagmatic eruptions. The distal ash was covered and preserved from erosion by a layer of welded ignimbrite, the source of which is unknown.     

松辽盆地改造残留的古火山机构与现代火山机构的类比分析

现代火山机构形态有盾状、锥状和穹状,可按喷发样式进一步划分为7种类型。据此分类,在松辽盆地周缘剖面及其北部徐家围子断陷区可识别出4类火山机构：盾状火山机构,由喷溢相熔岩组成,可夹有薄层爆发相火山碎屑岩;层火山机构,由互层的熔岩与火山碎屑岩组成,喷溢相与爆发相交替的序列明显;火山碎屑锥,几乎全部由火山碎屑（熔）岩组成,爆发相为主;熔岩穹丘由高粘度的流纹质、英安质熔岩堵塞火山口后缓慢挤出形成,喷溢相和侵出相发育,兼有火山通道相。盆地内埋藏火山机构最小坡度为3°,最大坡度为25°,底部直径为2～14 km,分布面积为4～50 km²,火山岩厚度为100～600 m;总体上呈现出数目多、个体规模小、受区域大断裂控制、具裂隙式-多中心喷发、彼此相互叠置的特征。火山岩岩性和岩相是控制松辽盆地古火山机构类型及形态的主要因素。     

The DEM of Mt. Etna: Geomorphological and structural implications

A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Mt. Etna is presented; it has altimetric and planimetric resolution of l m and 5 m, respectively, and covers an area of about 120 km². This 3-D view of Mt. Etna allowed both recognition and location of the main morphostructural and volcano-tectonic features of the volcano. A slope map has been generated from the DEM; on the basis of slope distributions and surface textures, five acclivity domains have been recognized. The largest domain, south of the summit craters, reflects the occurrence of old plateau lavas, distinct from central volcanoes which built the present Etnean volcanic system. Interaction between the central volcanoes, with their summit calderas and failed slopes, produced the other recognised domains. Furthermore, newly identified relevant morphostructural lines are discussed.     

Volcanic Eruption Induced Floods. A Rainfall-Runoff Model Applied to the Vesuvian Region (Italy)

Explosive events are commonly accompanied or followed byheavy rains. These eruption-induced storms together with thedeposition of large amounts of ash contribute to destabilise thehydrological cycle in the areas affected by volcanic eruptions.Flooding of the region surrounding the active volcano can easilyfollow, increasing the complexity of the volcanic crisis and itsmanagement. This is particularly true in the case of Vesuvius,that is not only characterized by a dramatic volcanic hazard, butit is also located within an area that is normally prone to flood hazard. A complete assessment of the impact associated with explosive volcaniceruptions should involve a flood hazard assessment for the region.This work represents a first attempt to address the problem: atopographically based rainfall-runoff model was here applied to theVesuvian area where two main sub-basins were analysed. The modelwas applied to evaluate the role of selected parameters on the totaldischarge at the basins' outlet. These parameters were chosen amongthose likely to be affected by an explosive event and were variedthrough a reasonable range. Results confirm that the deposition oflarge amounts of ash can affect the temporal evolution of the dischargeand its maximum value, for a given precipitation event. The simulationspresented outline the need for a detailed flood forecasting study for theVesuvian area, that should be included within the hazard mitigation strategies.     

Volcanic hazards zonation of the Nevado de Toluca Volcano,Central Mexico

Nevado de Toluca Volcano (NTV), located in central Mexico, is a large stratovolcano, with an explosive history. The area is one of the most important developing centers (>2 millions) in Mexico and in the last 30 yrs large population growth and expansion have increased the potential risk in case of a reactivation of the volcano. As part of a study to assess volcanic risk, this paper presents the results of the volcanic hazard analysis for the NTV. A total of 150 stratigraphic sections were made in the field and three new ages were obtained. Eruptions from NTV produced a complex sequence of pyroclastic deposits that have affected the area at least 18 times during the last 100,000 yrs. Eight vulcanian, four plinian and one-ultraplinian eruptions as well as the destruction of at least three domes occurred in the last 42,000 yr BP as well as two sector collapses in the last 100,000 yrs. Isopach and isopleth maps for the main ulraplinian eruption were also made. The original cone height (5,080 m.a.s.l) was reconstructed through geomorphologic methods. The maximum distance calculated with the energy line for the block and ash flows was 41 km, 35 km for pumice flows and 45 km for debris avalanches. The dominant wind direction at altitudes of 20–30 km is to the east-northeast from November to March, west-northwest in April and west from May to October. Five hazards maps (block and ash flows, pumice flows, ash fall, debris avalanches, and lahars) were made for the NTV. The pyroclastic flows and lahars represent very high to medium hazard for Toluca, Villa Guerrero, Coatepec, Tianguistengo, Metepec, Tenango, Lerma and Zinacantepec. A new debris avalanche would probably affect the south and northeast because of active faulting (E–W and NW–SE) and existing topographic differences in height.