On summing the components of radiative forcing of climate change

 Radiative forcing is a useful concept in determining the potential influence of a particular mechanism of climate change. However, due to the increased number of forcing agents identified over the past decade, the total radiative forcing is difficult to assess. By assigning a range of probability distribution functions to the individual radiative forcings and using a Monte-Carlo approach, we estimate the total radiative forcing since pre-industrial times including all quantitative radiative forcing estimates to date. The resulting total radiative forcing has a 75–97% probability of being positive (or similarly a 3–25% probability of being negative), with mean radiative forcing ranging from +0.68 to +1.34 W m⁻², and median radiative forcing ranging from +0.94 to +1.39 W m⁻². Received: 14 March 2001 / Accepted: 1 June 2001     

有效辐射强迫的概念及其最新估值:IPCC AR6解读

依据政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 第六次评估报告 (AR6) 第一工作组 (WGI) 报告第七章的内容,详细介绍了AR6最新定义的有效辐射强迫 (ERF)及其计算方法,并给出了自工业革命以来 (1750—2019年) 各气候辐射强迫因子ERF的最佳估值。根据AR6的最新评估,工业革命以来总人为ERF的估值为2.72 (1.96～3.48) W·m^-2,相较于AR5 估计结果 (1750—2011年) 增长了0.43 W·m^-2。2011年后温室气体浓度的增加及其辐射效率的修正是造成总人为ERF增加的主要原因。自工业革命以来温室气体浓度变化造成的ERF为3.84 (3.46～4.22) W·m^-2,二氧化碳仍然是其中的最大贡献因素 (56％±16％)。而气溶胶的总ERF (气溶胶-辐射相互作用 (ERFari) 与气溶胶-云相互作用 (ERFaci) 的总和) 为-1.1(-1.7～-0.4) W·m^-2,其中ERFari贡献20％～25％,ERFaci贡献接近75％～80％。AR6中气溶胶的总ERF的估算相较于AR5在数值上有所增加,而不确定性有所减少。但由于没有考虑部分重要的调整过程,ERFaci仍然存在较大的不确定性。     

Importance of instantaneous radiative forcing for rapid tropospheric adjustment

To better understand CFMIP/CMIP inter-model differences in rapid low cloud responses to CO₂ increases and their associated effective radiative forcings, we examined the tropospheric adjustment of the lower tropospheric stability (LTS) in three general circulation models (GCMs): HadGEM2-A, MIROC3.2 medres, and MIROC5. MIROC3.2 medres showed a reduction in LTS over the sub-tropical ocean, in contrast to the other two models. This reduction was consistent with a temperature decrease in the mid-troposphere. The temperature decrease was mainly driven by instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) caused by an increase in CO₂. Reductions in radiative and latent heating, due to clouds, and in adiabatic and advective heating, also contribute to the temperature decrease. The instantaneous RF in the mid-troposphere in MIROC3.2 medres is inconsistent with the results of line-by-line (LBL) calculations, and thus it is considered questionable. These results illustrate the importance of evaluating the vertical profile of instantaneous RF with LBL calculations; improved future model performance in this regard should help to increase our confidence in the tropospheric adjustment in GCMs.     

Adjusted radiative forcing and global radiative feedbacks in CNRM-CM5, a closure of the partial decomposition

This study provides a comprehensive global analysis of the climate radiative feedbacks and the adjusted radiative forcing for a CO₂ increase perturbation in the CNRM-CM5 climate model using the partial radiative perturbations (PRP) method. Some methodological key points of the PRP are investigated, with a particular focus on the consideration of the effect of fast adjustments. First, the standard PRP method is applied by neglecting certain fast adjustments. The effect of the field decorrelation is highlighted by performing a PRP across two different periods of a control experiment and by analyzing second-order terms. Sensitivity tests to the field substitution frequency, the sampling period and the perturbed experiment used are performed. The impact of the definition of the top of the climate system (top-of-the-atmosphere or tropopause) in the feedback estimate is also discussed. Secondly, the fast adjustment processes are taken into account by combining the PRP framework with the method of linear regression of the partial net radiative flux change against the mean surface air temperature change using a step forcing experiment. This method allows us to quantify the contribution of the different constituents to the forcing adjustment and to improve the estimation of the radiative feedbacks. It is shown that such decomposition allows the retrieval of the adjusted radiative forcing, the radiative feedbacks and the climate sensitivity as estimated with the linear regression method with a high level of accuracy, validating the partial decomposition.     

Stratosphere adjusted radiative forcing calculationsin a comprehensive climate model

Summary  A new technical procedure is introduced to determine the stratosphere adjusted radiative forcing at the tropopause in the framework of the 3-D climate model ECHAM4. However, the procedure appears to be appropriate for other GCMs as well. It allows to study in a straightforward way the problem of the general usefulness of radiative forcing as a reliable predictor of climate change. Some examples are given for illustration. It is, once again, confirmed that the climate sensitivity is practically equal for experiments with increased solar insolation and increased CO₂ concentration. However, a higher climate sensitivity is obtained for ozone perturbations with a horizontally or vertically inhomogeneous distribution. The latter finding is in qualitative agreement with respective results reported in other studies, whereas the value of the climate sensitivity is exceptionally high in our model. The physical reasons for the unique model behaviour in the ozone experiments are currently not understood. Received August 28, 2000 Revised January 2, 2001     

飞机尾迹云识别及其辐射强迫的研究进展

喷气式飞机在对流层上层的航空活动形成的尾迹云能够影响区域气候,对全球变暖有正的贡献。飞机尾迹云的辐射强迫与飞机尾迹云的区域覆盖率、物理特性以及光学特性密切相关。本文回顾了近几十年来线状尾迹云的相关研究进展,并分析总结了线状尾迹云的不同识别方法。首先讨论了欧美主流的尾迹云检测算法(Contrail Detection Algorithm,CDA)及其延伸算法,并总结了线状尾迹云在西欧、北美等地区覆盖率的季节和昼夜变化特点;接着讨论了以往多种线状尾迹云光学厚度的计算方案及其计算不确定性;最后分析了线状尾迹云的辐射强迫与覆盖率、光学厚度的关系,并指出目前飞机尾迹云相关研究存在的问题以及未来发展方向。     

A three-dimensional study of mesoscale model response to radiative forcing

An infrared radiation parameterization has been applied to a detailed three-dimensional mesoscale model in order to determine whether radiative forcing significantly affects mesoscale atmospheric processes. By taking into account water vapor, liquid water, and carbon dioxide absorption, the scheme differentiates between cloud and clear air regions. The parametric model is presented, along with an overview of the associated mesoscale model.Comparisons between a control run in which only a uniform cooling rate of l K day^–1 is specified, and runs with the infrared scheme are made for 12-hr simulations. The major feature of the radiative forcing is seen to be strong cloud-top cooling. This leads to enhanced destabilization of the upper cloud layer, which in turn results in faster growth of clouds (and which extend to higher levels) than in the control experiment. The deeper clouds force a more vigorous secondary circulation, in which thermodynamic feedbacks between clouds and their environment are substantially stronger than in the case with only a constant cooling rate. This confirms findings made in previous studies undertaken in small-scale numerical models. The discussion also focuses upon a simulation in which the cloud-top infrared cooling has been smoothed out over neighboring vertical levels, in order to represent a cloud-top height distribution crudely. The results indicate that although the absolute values of cloud-top cooling are reduced with respect to the unfiltered case, the fact that cooling extends even higher than previously predicted leads to the formation of thicker, more vigorous clouds. These clouds interact more intensely with their environment than in the unfiltered situation, thereby considerably modifying the mesoscale atmosphere.     

Direct shortwave radiative forcing of the Asian dust aerosol on dust emission

The physical processes of the feedback mechanism of direct shortwave radiative forcing of the Asian dust aerosol on dust emission has been examined using simulated results with the coupled (with dust shortwave radiative forcing) and the non-coupled model (without dust shortwave radiative forcing) based on the MM5 model and the Asian Dust Aerosol Model on 19 March 2002. The results indicate that a significant dust emission reduction occurs in the high dust concentration (HDC) region of the dust source region whereas an enhanced dust emission appears in the downstream of the dust source region. It is found that Asian dust aerosols raised during the daytime by the strong surface wind cause negative shortwave radiative flux near the surface, which in turn reduces the sensible heat flux causing the cooling of the air, thereby enhancing stable stratification. The dynamic adjustment of the negative radiative flux of the dust induces a positive pressure anomaly over the HDC region and a negative pressure anomaly toward the synoptic low pressure center, resulting in a dipole shape of pressure anomaly field near the surface. The associated secondary circulation of this pressure anomaly together with the reduction of turbulent intensity due to the reduced sensible heat flux reduces the low-level wind speed thereby reducing dust emission in the upstream of the HDC region of the dust source region (Region I), while enhancing the low-level wind speed in the downstream region (Region II), which in turn enhances dust emission. This enhanced dust emission is smaller than the emission reduction in the upstream, resulting in overall dust emission reduction during the daytime.     

On radiative forcing of sulphate aerosol produced from ion-promoted nucleation mechanisms in an atmospheric global model

A significant fraction of the total number of particles present in the atmosphere is formed by nucleation in the gas phase. Nucleation and the subsequent growth process influence both number concentration of particles and their size distribution besides chemical and optical properties of atmospheric aerosols. Sulphate aerosol nucleation mechanisms promoted by ions have been evaluated here in a tropospheric interactive chemistry-aerosol module for mass and number concentration in a global atmospheric model. The indirect radiative forcing of sulphate particles is assessed in this model; indirect radiative forcing is different for ion-induced (IIN) and ion-mediated (IMN) mechanisms. The indirect radiative forcing in 10-year simulation runs has been calculated as ?1.42?W/m² (IIN) and ?1.54?W/m² (IMN). The 5% emission of primary sulphate particles in simulations changes the indirect radiative forcing from ?1.42 to ?1.44?W/m² for IIN case, and from ?1.54 to ?1.55 W/m² for the IMN case. More precisely, owing to greater nucleation rates, IMN mechanisms produces greater cooling than the IIN mechanisms in the backdrop that both mechanisms produce almost identical distribution of CDNC in their pre-industrial runs. The inclusion of primary particles in simulations with IIN and IMN mechanisms increases both CDNC and the indirect radiative forcing.     

关于硝酸盐气溶胶光学特征和辐射强迫的研究进展

在过去的20多年里,中外对硫酸盐气溶胶做了大量的研究,对它在大气中的排放、含量、光学特征和辐射强迫有了深入的认识;由于硝酸盐气溶胶在大气中平均含量比硫酸盐低很多,因此过去人们对硝酸盐的研究没有给予重视。然而,近年来的研究表明,硝酸盐气溶胶的散射性质在某些波段甚至强于硫酸盐;同时,由于未来对人为硫酸盐前体物的减排,硫酸盐气溶胶排放会大幅度减少,而硝酸盐气溶胶的排放却增长迅速,其在人为气溶胶中所占的比重越来越高,将会导致其在未来造成的辐射强迫有可能超过硫酸盐,使得其在地区范围内和季节尺度上成为重要的辐射强迫和气候影响因子。中国是硝酸盐气溶胶排放量较大的地区,硝酸盐对未来中国气候和气候变化的影响显得越来越重要。因此,就近年来有关硝酸盐气溶胶的排放和在大气中的浓度变化、光学厚度分布特征及其辐射强迫的研究进展做了回顾和介绍,并对其未来的研究做了展望。     

沙尘气溶胶辐射强迫全球分布的模拟研究

为了定景了解沙尘气溶胶对气候的影响,文中利用一个改进的辐射传输模式,结合伞球气溶胶数据集(G-ADS),计算了晴空条件下,冬夏两季沙尘气溶胶的直接辐射强迫在对流层顶和地面的全球分布,并讨论了云对沙尘气溶胶辐射强迫的影响.计算结果表明,对北半球冬季和夏季而言,在对流层顶沙尘气溶胶的全球短波辐射强迫的平均值分别为-0.477和-0.501 W/m2;长波辐射强迫分别为0.11和0.085 W/m2;全球平均短波地面辐射强迫冬夏两季分别为-1.362和-1.559 W/m2;长波辐射强迫分别为0.274和0.23 W/m2.沙尘气溶胶在对流层顶和地面的负辐射强迫的绝对值郁随太阳天顶角的余弦和地表反照率的增加而增大;地表反照率对沙尘气溶胶辐射强迫的强度和分布都有重要影响.研究指出:云对沙尘气溶胶的直接辐射强迫的影响不仅取决于云量,而且取决于云的高度和云水路径,以及地面反照率和太阳高度角等综合因素.中云和低云对沙尘气溶胶在对流层顶的短波辐射强迫的影响比高云明显.云的存在都使对流层顶长波辐射强迫减少,其中低云的影响最为明显.因此,在估算沙尘气溶胶总的直接辐射强迫时,云的贡献不可忽视.     

Why radiative forcing might fail as a predictor of climate change

Radiative forcing has been widely used as a metric of climate change, i.e. as a measure by which various contributors to a net surface temperature change can be quantitatively compared. The extent to which this concept is valid for spatially inhomogeneous perturbations to the climate system is tested. A series of climate model simulations involving ozone changes of different spatial structure reveals that the climate sensitivity parameter is highly variable: for an ozone increase in the northern hemisphere lower stratosphere, it is more than twice as large as for a homogeneous CO₂ perturbation. A global ozone perturbation in the upper troposphere, however, causes a significantly smaller surface temperature response than CO₂. The variability of the climate sensitivity parameter is shown to be mostly due to the varying strength of the stratospheric water vapour feedback. The variability of the sea-ice albedo feedback modifies climate sensitivity of perturbations with the same vertical structure but a different horizontal structure. This feedback is also the origin of the comparatively larger climate sensitivity to perturbations restricted to the northern hemisphere extratropics. As cloud feedback does not operate independently from the other feedbacks, quantifying its effect is rather difficult. However, its effect on the variability of for horizontally and vertically inhomogeneous perturbations within one model framework seems to be comparatively small.This revised version was published online March 2005 with corrections to table 5.     

Cloud radiative forcing of subtropical low level clouds in global models

Simulations of subtropical marine low clouds and their radiative properties by nine coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models participating in the fourth assesment report (AR4) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) are analyzed. Satellite observations of cloudiness and radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) are utilized for comparison. The analysis is confined to the marine subtropics in an attempt to isolate low cloudiness from tropical convective systems. All analyzed models have a negative bias in the low cloud fraction (model mean bias of −15%). On the other hand, the models show an excess of cloud radiative cooling in the region (model mean excess of 13 W m⁻²). The latter bias is shown to mainly originate from too much shortwave reflection by the models clouds rather than biases in the clear-sky fluxes. These results confirm earlier studies, thus no major progress in simulating the marine subtropical clouds is noted. As a consequence of the combination of these two biases, this study suggests that all investigated models are likely to overestimate the radiative response to changes in low level subtropical cloudiness.     

Aerosol optical depth, physical properties and radiative forcing over the Arabian Sea

Summary The Arabian Sea region (4° N–20° N to 50° E–78° E) has a unique weather pattern on account of the Indian monsoon and the associated winds that reverse direction seasonally. The aerosol data, collected using ship-borne and island platforms (for 8 years from 1995 to 2002) along with MODIS (onboard TERRA satellite) data (from 2000 to 2003) have been used to evolve a comprehensive characterisation of the spatial and temporal variation in the physical, chemical, and radiative properties of aerosols over the Arabian Sea. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) was found to increase with latitude between the equator and 12° N. Over the northern Arabian Sea (regions lying north of 12° N), AODs do not show significant latitudinal variations; the average aerosol optical depth for this region was 0.29±0.12 during winter monsoon season (WMS; November to March) and 0.47±0.14 during summer monsoon season (SMS; April/May to September). The corresponding Angstrom exponents were 0.7±0.12 and 0.3±0.08, respectively. The low values of the exponent during SMS indicate the dominance of large aerosols (mainly dust particles >1 μm). The latitudinal gradient in AOD in the southern Arabian Sea is larger during SMS compared to WMS. The size distribution of aerosols shows two well-defined modes, one in the accumulation size regime and the other in the coarse size regime. During WMS, a third mode (nucleation) also appears in the sub micron range below ∼0.1 μm. The single scattering albedo does not show significant seasonal variations (remains within ∼0.93 to 0.98 through out the year). During WMS (SMS), top of the atmosphere diurnally averaged aerosol forcing remains around −6.1 (−14.3)W m⁻² over the northern Arabian Sea up to around 12° N and decreases southwards till it attains a value of −3.8 (−3.4)W m⁻² at the equator. The surface forcing remains around −16.2(−15.2)W m⁻² over the northern Arabian Sea up to 12° N and decreases southwards to a value of −5.5 (−3.5)W m⁻² at the equator. Over the north Arabian Sea, instantaneous forcing (flux change) at the surface can be as high as −50 W m⁻². The instantaneous forcing decreases with latitude in the southern Arabian Sea at a rate of ∼3 W m⁻²deg⁻¹.     

Temperature stabilization, ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing overshoot profiles

Political leaders in numerous nations argue for an upper limit of the global average surface temperature of 2 K above the pre-industrial level, in order to attempt to avoid the most serious impacts of climate change. This paper analyzes what this limit implies in terms of radiative forcing, emissions pathways and abatement costs, for a range of assumptions on rate of ocean heat uptake and climate sensitivity. The primary aim is to analyze the importance of ocean heat uptake for radiative forcing pathways that temporarily overshoot the long-run stabilization forcing, yet keep the temperature increase at or below the 2 K limit. In order to generate such pathways, an integrated climate-economy model, MiMiC, is used, in which the emissions pathways generated represent the least-cost solution of stabilizing the global average surface temperature at 2 K above the pre-industrial level. We find that the level of overshoot can be substantial. For example, the level of overshoot in radiative forcing in 2100 ranges from about 0.2 to 1 W/m2, where the value depends strongly and positively on the effective diffusivity of heat in the oceans. Measured in relative terms, the level of radiative forcing overshoot above its longrun equilibrium level in 2100 is 20% to 60% for high values of climate sensitivity (i.e., about 4.5 K) and 8% to 30% for low values of climate sensitivity (i.e., about 2 K). In addition, for cases in which the radiative forcing level can be directly stabilized at the equilibrium level associated with a specific climate sensitivity and the 2 K limit, the net present value abatement cost is roughly cut by half if overshoot pathways are considered instead of stabilization of radiative forcing at the equilibrium level without an overshoot.     

Seasonal variations of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and direct radiative forcing over China

Summary Regional climate model (RegCM2) and sulfur transport model (NJUADMS) were combined to simulate the distribution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol burden over China, where a look up table method was applied to illustrate sulfate formation from SO₂-oxidation. Direct radiative forcing of sulfate aerosol was further estimated using the scheme suggested by Charlson et al (1991). Investigations show that the annual average total sulfate column over mainland China is 2.01mg/m² with high value in East and Central areas (more than 7mg/m²). The annual average direct radiative forcing of China is about –0.85W/m². The forcing can reach –7W/m² in Central and East China during the winter season. Total sulfate column shows significant seasonal variations with winter maximum-summer minimum in the Southern part of China and spring maximum-autumn minimum in the northern part of China. Strong seasonal cycles of direct radiative forcing are also found due to the influence of total sulfate column, cloud, relative humidity and the reflectivity of underlying surfaceReceived May 16, 2001; accepted August 5, 2002 Published online: May 8, 2003