Influence of monsoon over the warm pool on interannual variation on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific （WNP） and the thermal state over the warm pool （WP） is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years.
The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.     

赤道波动转换在西北太平洋热带气旋生成中的作用

This study associates tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) with the equatorial wave transition from an interannual viewpoint, revealing that the tropical cyclogenesis mean location may be modulated by a longitudinal shift in the transition of Mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves to off-equatorial tropical depression (TD) disturbances from year to year. To a large extent, the wave transition is attributable to the monsoon trough in response to the thermal state of the warm pool (WP) over the WNP. During the cold state years in the WP, the basic flow confluence region associated with the monsoon trough penetrates eastward, leading to an eastward shift in the location of the wave transition. Such an environment, in which wave accumulation and energy conversion occur, is favorable for tropical cyclogenesis; as a result, the averaged cyclogenesis location moves eastward. The condition is reserved during the warm years in the WP, resulting in the prominent westward-retreating mean TC formation. Citation: Chen, G. H., and R. H. Huang, 2008: Role of equatorial wave transitions in tropical cyclogenesis over the western north Pacific, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 1, 64-68     

Circulation Features Associated with the Record-breaking Typhoon Silence in August 2014

Climatologically, August is the month with the most tropical cyclone(TC) formation over the western North Pacific(WNP) during the typhoon season. In this study, the reason for abnormal TC activity during August is discussed—especially August 2014, when no TCs formed. The large-scale background of August 2014 is presented, with low-level large-scale easterly anomalies and anticyclonic anomalies dominating over the main TC genesis region, a weak monsoon trough system,and a strong WNP subtropical high(WPSH), leading to significantly reduced low-level convergence, upper-level divergence,and mid-level upward motion. These unfavorable large-scale conditions suppressed convection and cyclogenesis. In August2014, equatorial waves were inactive within the negative phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO), with fewer tropical disturbances. Although the low-level vorticity and convection of those disturbances were partly promoted by the convective envelopes of equatorial waves, the integral evolution of disturbances, as well as the equatorial waves, were suppressed when propagating into the negative MJO phase. Moreover, the upper-level potential vorticity(PV) streamers associated with anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking events imported extratropical cold and dry air into the tropics. The peripheral tropospheric dryness and enhanced vertical wind shear by PV streamer intrusion combined with the negative MJO phase were responsible for the absence of TC formation over the WNP in August 2014.     

上海地区移动型雷暴阵风锋特征统计分析

文章利用常规天气资料、双多普勒雷达资料、GFS 3 km分辨率分析场资料以及地面自动站资料等,统计分析了上海地区2009-2014年共18次移动型雷暴产生的阵风锋的个例,包括天气背景、温湿环境特征以及阵风锋在雷达图上的特征等。根据阵风锋生成的时段以及与其母体雷暴的相互作用和影响,将移动型雷暴产生的阵风锋分为两类:(1)一类出现在雷暴发展、成熟阶段,阵风锋通常与雷暴保持一定的距离同向运动,出现阵风锋的雷暴主体通常伴有高悬的后侧人流急流,生命史长达2h以上;(2)另一类出现在雷暴的减弱消亡阶段,出现后即逐渐远离雷暴,出现阵风锋的雷暴主体通常伴有从雷暴系统后侧倾斜向下正好到达雷暴前侧阵风锋处的后侧人流急流。阵风锋出现后,逐渐远离雷暴运动,大部分阵风锋(12个个例)出现在雷暴移动方向的前侧,与雷暴移动同向,少数阵风锋(4个个例)出现在雷暴移动方向的异侧,与雷暴移动不同向。统计分析结果表明:第一类阵风锋一方面与雷暴同向移动,不断将其前侧低层的暖湿空气抬升,并沿着阵风锋输送到雷暴中去;另一方面,由于较强的垂直风切变和较强的对流有效位能对后侧人流急流高度的维持起到了关键作用,高悬的后侧人流急流和垂直风切变共同产生的正涡度和冷池产生的负涡度平衡,有利于维持雷暴的发展传播。因此,阵风锋后侧的雷暴持续稳定的发展,并在其后侧可观测到雷暴的新生。第二类阵风锋生成后即逐渐远离雷暴主体,仅以孤立波的形式传播,受经过的环境的影响,其后侧的干冷气流的性质逐渐减弱。与雷暴同向运动的阵风锋切断了暖湿气流向雷暴的输送,不利于雷暴的发展;同时在弱-中等切变和弱-中等对流有效位能的环境中,从雷暴后侧向前侧倾斜向下的后侧人流急流和冷池共同产生的负涡度强于垂直风切变产生的正涡度,强冷池前沿的上升气流向后倾斜,不利于新对流单体的发展,雷暴大都在阵风锋出现2h内消亡。     

A CASE STUDY OF FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS AND ITS SENSITIVITY TO COASTAL INITIAL CONDITIONS*

In this study,the predictability and physical processes leading to the rapid frontal cyclogenesis,that took place in the east coast of the U.S.during 3-4 October 1987,are examined using a nestedgrid.mesoscale model with a fine-mesh grid size of 25km.It is shown that the model reproduces reasonably well the cyclogenesis in a coastal baroclinic zone.its subsequent deepening and movement as well as the pertinent precipitation.It is found that the frontal cyclogenesis occurs in a favorable large-scale environment with pronounced thermal advection in the lower troposphere and marked potential vorticity(PV) concentration aloft associated with the tropopause depression.The transport of warm and moist air from the marine boundary layer by the low-level in-shore flow provides the necessary energy source for the observed heavy precipitation and a variety of weather phenomena reported in the cold sector.Several 24-h sensitivity simulations are performed to examine the relative importance of diabatic heating,adiabatic dynamics and various initial conditions in the frontal cyclogenesis.It is found that latent heat release,even though quite intense,accounts for only 25% of the cyclone's total deepening in this case:the weak impact seems due to the occurrence of latent heating in the cold sector and the upward lifting of the dynamical tropopause by diabatic updrafts.Vorticity budgets show that the lowlevel thermal advection dominates the incipient stage,whereas the vorticity advection determines the rapid deepening rate at the mature stage.The results reveal that the predictability of the present storm is closely related to the vertical coupling between the surface cyclone and the upper-level PV core,which is in turn determined by initial offshore perturbations in the lower troposphere.     

A numerical investigation of a moderate coastal storm with intense precipitation

Abstract

In this study, the development of a moderate coastal storm with intense precipitation that occurred during 12–14 February 1993 is examined using a high‐resolution version of the Canadian Regional Finite‐element (RFE) model with more realistic physical representations. It is shown that the improved RFE model predicts well the coastal cyclogenesis events and also the distribution and intensity of heavy mixed precipitation (rain and snow) associated with the storm. It is found that the cyclogenesis takes place in response to the low‐level inshore advection of high‐θ_e air from the maritime boundary layer, and the approach of a mid‐level shortwave trough with a warm pool above that is previously associated with a decaying cyclone upstream. More rapid deepening of the cyclone ensues as intense precipitation falls along the warm and cold fronts near the cyclone centre.

Diagnosis of the control and sensitivity simulations reveals that the low‐level inshore warm advection and the propagation of the stratospheric warm pool contribute more significantly to the surface pressure falls during the incipient stage, whereas the mid‐level shortwave trough plays an important role in the cyclogenesis at later stages. Overall, latent heat release accounts for about 50% of the cyclone's total deepening, in agreement with the presence of a moderate baroclinic environment and the generation of intense precipitation.

The diabatic and kinematic structures near the rain‐snow boundary are examined to gain insight into the influence of melting snow on the cyclogenesis. It is shown that the improved RFE model reproduces well the rain‐snow boundary structures as previously observed. Moreover, a thermally indirect circulation (perturbation) can be seen in the vicinity of the rain‐snow boundary. It is found, however, that melting of snow tends to produce a weak negative or negligible impact on the cyclogenesis, as opposed to previous hypotheses.     

LOW-DEFORMATION VORTICITY AREAS IN SYNOPTIC-SCALE DISTURBANCES FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS: AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS

It has long been known that incipient tropical cyclones (TCs) always occur in synoptic-scale disturbances or tropical cyclogenesis precursors, and the disturbances can intensify only within a limited area during tropical cyclogenesis. An observational analysis of five tropical cyclogenesis events over the western North Pacific during 11 August to 10 September 2004 is conducted to demonstrate the role of synoptic-scale disturbances in establishing a limited area of low-deformation vorticity for tropical cyclogenesis. The analysis of the five tropical cyclogenesis events shows that synoptic-scale tropical cyclogenesis precursors provide a region of low-deformation vorticity, which is measured with large positive values of the Okubo-Weiss (OW) parameter. The OW concentrated areas are within the tropical cyclogenesis precursors with a radius of about 400-500 km and can be found as early as 72 hours prior to the formation of the tropical depression. When the TCs reached the tropical storm intensity, the concentrated OW is confined to an area of 200-300 radius and the storm centers are coincident with the centers of the maximum OW. This study indicates that the tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the low-deformation 18-72 hours prior to the formation of tropical depressions, suggesting the importance of low-deformation vorticity in pre-existent synoptic-scale disturbances. Although the Rossby radius of deformation is reduced in TC genesis precedes, the reduction does not sufficiently make effective conversion of convective heating into kinetic energy within the low-deformation area. Further analysis indicates that the initial development of four of the five disturbances is coupled with the counterclockwise circulation of the mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) wave.     

Diagnostics of Cyclogenesis Over the Aegean Sea Using Potential Vorticity Inversion

Summary  In this study an attempt is made to investigate comprehensively the dynamics of a case of cyclogenesis over the Aegean Sea within the context of the potential vorticity. At early stages the cyclogenesis is manifested by a large scale development at the upper levels over Adriatic Sea and Yugoslavia associated with an upper tropospheric potential vorticity anomaly. At later stages a smaller scale development was generated over Aegean Sea associated with a low-level potential vorticity anomaly and a surface warm anomaly. By means of a two-dimensional potential vorticity inversion it is demonstrated that the scale, the position and the strength of the involved anomalies contribute to the surface development, however, the low-level potential vorticity anomaly seems to constitute the most significant feature, more likely to be associated with condensation. Received March 2, 1999/Revised September 30, 1999     

地形影响蒙古气旋发展的观测和模拟研究

针对2001年4月上旬一次蒙古气旋发展过程中的地形因素进行了观测和模拟研究, 结果表明:依据低层冷空气是否越过阿尔泰—萨彦岭山地产生气旋冷锋, 蒙古气旋的发生发展过程可以划分为触发和发展两个阶段。在气旋的发展阶段, 斜压不稳定是其主要强迫机制。伴随地形对低层冷空气阻滞程度的变化, 蒙古气旋经历了从缓慢发展到剧烈加强的过程。阿尔泰—萨彦岭山地通过对低层冷空气的阻滞使山地上空等熵面更为陡立, 加强了对流层低层的斜压强迫, 从而使斜压强迫的涡度增长向低层聚集, 导致气旋发展强度增强。阿尔泰—萨彦岭山地及其南侧形成的峡谷地形对低空急流的位置、范围、强度及演变过程具有较重要影响。另外, 对流层高层位涡平流也是气旋发展的一个强迫因素, 但其影响较小。     

一种对资源不稳定性敏感的EASY-backfill算法

利用合成技术对1995—2006年冬季（11月—次年2月）生成在西北太平洋上的34个热带气旋（tropicalcyclone,TC）个例进行分析,研究冬季西北太平洋TC生成的大尺度环流特征及其生成机制,结果表明：冬季TC生成的大尺度环流特征型为东风波西传型;北半球冬季对流层低层出现的跨赤道气旋对是冬季北半球TC形成的重要特征;太平洋中部赤道混合Rossby重力波西北传,与强对流中心重合,性质转为＂热带低压型扰动＂,为冬季热带气旋生成提供扰动源。对合成TC初始场的涡动扰动动能的收支分析表明,涡动有效位能和正压不稳定转换为TC形成提供了能量,这两种能量分别与积云对流加热和水平不均匀气流有关。正压不稳定能量转换为动能主要位于对流层中下层,而扰动有效位能的转换主要位于对流层中上层。低层热带东风波动从平均气流中获得正压不稳定能量,并与强积云对流耦合,热力和动力共同作用下形成TC。     

Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis

The interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and its influence on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the South Pacific are investigated using observations and ERA40 reanalysis over the 1979?C2002 period. In austral summer, the SPCZ displays four typical structures at interannual timescales. The first three are characterized by a diagonal orientation of the SPCZ and account for 85% of the summer seasons. One is close to climatology and the other two exhibit a 3° northward or southward departure from the SPCZ climatological position. In contrast, the fourth one, that only encompasses three austral summer seasons (the extreme 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Ni?o events and the moderate 1991/1992 El Ni?o event), displays very peculiar behaviour where the SPCZ largely departs from its climatological position and is zonally oriented. Variability of the western/central Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) is shown to modulate moisture transport south of the equator, thereby strongly constraining the location of the SPCZ. The SPCZ location is also shown to strongly modulate the atmospheric circulation variability in the South Pacific with specific patterns for each class. However, independently of its wide year-to-year excursions, the SPCZ is always collocated with the zero relative vorticity at low levels while the maximum vorticity axis lies 6° to the south of the SPCZ position. This coherent atmospheric organisation in the SPCZ region is shown to constrain tropical cyclogenesis to occur preferentially within 10° south of the SPCZ location as this region combines all the large-scale atmospheric conditions that favour the breeding of TCs. This analysis also reveals that cyclogenesis in the central Pacific (in the vicinity of French Polynesia) only occurs when the SPCZ displays a zonal orientation while this observation was previously attributed to El Ni?o years in general. Different characteristics of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Pacific equatorial warming are shown to impact differently on the SPCZ position, suggesting that for regional scales, such as the South Pacific, the SPCZ classification is more appropriate than a simple ENSO index to characterize TC interannual variability. These findings suggest that forecasting the strength of El Ni?o through SST variations in the eastern Pacific may not be sufficient to accurately predict cyclogenesis in the South Pacific, especially east of the dateline.     

西北太平洋热带气旋移动路径的年际变化及其机理研究

利用JTWC的热带气旋资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析的风场资料以及Scripps海洋研究所的海温资料分析了西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)移动路径的年际变化及其机理。结果表明,西北太平洋TC移动路径有明显的年际变化并与西太平洋暖池热状态有很密切的关系。当西太平洋暖池处于暖状态,西北太平洋上空TC移动路径偏西,影响中国的台风个数偏多;相反,当西太平洋暖池处于冷状态,西北太平洋的TC移动路径偏东,影响日本的台风个数偏多,而影响中国的台风个数可能偏少。本研究以西太平洋暖池处于冷状态的2004年与西太平洋暖池处于暖状态的2006年的西北太平洋TC移动路径的差别进一步论证了这一分析结果并从动力理论方面分析了在西太平洋暖池不同热状态下,季风槽对赤道西传天气尺度的Rossby重力混合波转变成热带低压型波动(TD型波动)的影响,以此揭示西太平洋暖池的热状态对西北太平洋TC生成位置与移动路径年际变化的影响机理。分析结果表明,当西北太平洋暖池处于暖状态时,季风槽偏西,使得热带太平洋上空对流层低层Rossby重力混合波转变成TD型波动的位置也偏西,从而造成TC生成平均位置偏西,并易于出现西行路径;相反,当西太平洋暖池处于冷状态时,季风槽偏东,这造成了对流层低层Rossby重力混合波转变成TD型波动的区域,以及TC生成的平均位置都偏东,从而导致TC移动路径以东北转向为主。     

SENSITIVITY FACTORS FOR TYPHOON GENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING JULY-SEPTEMBER

The paper compares the correlations between individual factors of the cyclogenesis and the number of TCs formed in the western North Pacific in July to September(NTWNP). It also compares the characteristics of zonal anomaly distribution of the factors in the primary TC source areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Results show that the vorticity factor has the closest correlation with NTWNP. In TC genesis conditions, this feature is relatively rich but not enough, which determines that it is the sensitivity factor of NTWNP's annual variation. The paper also analyzes the source of annual variation of the vorticity factor in the key area of the western North Pacific as well as its advantage in showing NTWNP. Results show that the annual variation of the vorticity factor mentioned above is related to the annual variation of Southern Oscillation, Antarctica Oscillation and the geopotential height field of East Australia, which reflects the effect of two large-scale systems in the Southern Hemisphere and ENSO(El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation) on NTWNP. Since the area where the vorticity factor is significantly correlated with NTWNP is consistent with the area of dense TC genesis sources, the vorticity factor has an obvious advantage in showing annual variation of TCs. Those features are very significant for research on the influencing mechanism of NTWNP and simulation of climate models.     

Sources of CAM3 vorticity bias during northern winter from diagnostic study of the vorticity equation

CAM3 (Community Atmosphere Model version 3) simulation bias is diagnosed using the vorticity equation. The study compares CAM3 output with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) 40?year reanalysis (ERA-40) data. A time mean vorticity bias equation is also formulated and the terms are grouped into categories: linear terms, nonlinear terms, transient contributions, and friction (calculated as a residual). Frontal cyclone storms have much weaker band passed kinetic energy and enstrophy in CAM3. The downstream end of the North Atlantic storm track (NAST) has large location error. While the vorticity equation terms have similar amplitude ranking in CAM3 and ERA-40 at upper levels, the ranking differs notably in the lower troposphere. The linear and friction terms dominate the vorticity bias equation. The transient terms contribute along the storm track, but the nonlinear terms are generally much smaller, with the primary exception being over the Iberian peninsula. Friction is much stronger in CAM3. As evidence, nearly all wavelengths (including the longest planetary waves) have smaller amplitude in CAM3 than in ERA-40 vorticity data. Negative near surface vorticity tendency bias on the European side of the Arctic is linked to the NAST track error (evident in the divergence term). CAM3 misses the Beaufort high in sea level pressure (SLP) due to low level warm temperature bias, too little vortex compression, and to too little horizontal advection of negative vorticity compared with ERA-40. Generally lower SLP values in CAM3 over the entire Arctic follow from lower level warm bias in CAM3.     

湖北省一次罕见寒潮天气过程气温陡降分析

利用常规地面资料以及T213、自动站资料，对2005年3月10-11日发生在湖北省的一次罕见寒潮过程中两次气温陡降进行了成因和湿位涡诊断分析。分析表明，第一次气温陡降是由于地面强冷空气侵入暖槽，第二次气温陡降主要是高空冷平流下传和地面自西向东发展的降水导致；湿位涡湿斜压项MPV2的时空演变和强冷空气的发展、移动、气温陡降有很好的对应关系。     

The Initial Mesoscale Vortexes Leading to the Formation of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

A statistical analysis of the initial vortexes leading to tropical cyclone(TC) formation in the western North Pacific(WNP) is conducted with the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data from 1999 to 2018. It is found that TCs in the WNP basically originate from three kinds of vortexes, i.e., a mid-level vortex(MV), a low-level vortex(LV), and a relatively deep vortex with notable vorticity in both the lower and middle troposphere(DV). Among them, LV and DV account for 47.9% and24.2% of tropical cyclogenesis e...     

Impact of the configuration of stretching and ocean–atmosphere coupling on tropical cyclone activity in the variable-resolution GCM ARPEGE

This study starts by investigating the impact of the configuration of the variable-resolution atmospheric grid on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The French atmospheric general circulation model ARPEGE, the grid of which is rotated and stretched over the North Atlantic basin, was used with prescribed sea surface temperatures. The study clearly shows that changing the position of the stretching pole strongly modifies the representation of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. A pole in the centre of the North Atlantic basin provides the best representation of the TC activity for this region. In a second part, the variable-resolution climate model ARPEGE is coupled with the European oceanic global climate model NEMO in order to study the impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling on TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. Two pre-industrial runs, a coupled simulation and a simulation forced by the sea surface temperatures from the coupled one, are compared. The results show that the coupled simulation is more active in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico while the forced simulation is more active over eastern Florida and the eastern Atlantic. The difference in the distribution of TC activity is certainly linked with the location of TC genesis. In the forced simulation, tropical cyclogenesis is closer to the west African coast than in the coupled simulation. Moreover, the difference in TC activity over the eastern Atlantic seems to be related to two different mechanisms: the difference in African easterly wave activity over the west of Africa and the cooling produced, in the coupled simulation, by African easterly waves over the eastern Atlantic. Finally, the last part studies the impact of changing the frequency of ocean–atmosphere coupling on Atlantic TC activity. Increasing the frequency of coupling decreases the density of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. However, it does not modify the spatial distribution of the TC activity. TC rainfalls are decreased by 8?% in the high frequency coupled run.     

两次台风暴雨冷空气影响对比分析

利用常规观测、气象卫星资料及NCEP分析数据等,对台风"麦德姆"(1410)和"苏迪罗"(1513)的冷空气作用形式及对台风暴雨的影响进行对比分析。两个台风在冷空气影响下的强降水分布差异显著:"麦德姆"强降水经向特征明显;"苏迪罗"强降水纬向性较强。冷空气质点运动轨迹显示,"麦德姆"的冷空气沿西北路径入侵,包含西北冷槽和东北冷槽的共同影响;"苏迪罗"冷空气沿偏东路径入侵,冷空气源为单一的东北地区冷槽系统,强度较弱。在垂直方向上,"麦德姆"低层冷空气入侵早于高层,"苏迪罗"则相反。受冷空气不同作用方式影响,"麦德姆"台风倒槽明显,对流层低层冷暖平流较强,锋生显著,正涡度和上升运动沿台风倒槽呈东北—西南向分布;"苏迪罗"对流层低层冷平流及地面锋生均较弱,在台风北侧,低层偏东风急流引起较强的正涡度和上升运动,同时中层冷空气入侵有利于位势不稳定的增强,导致强降水沿台风北侧的偏东风急流呈东西向分布。     

Variability of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet and its relations to climate

A maximum of easterly zonal wind at 925 hPa in the Caribbean region is called the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). Observations show that the easterly CLLJ varies semi-annually, with two maxima in the summer and winter and two minima in the fall and spring. Associated with the summertime strong CLLJ are a maximum of sea level pressure (SLP), a relative minimum of rainfall (the mid-summer drought), and a minimum of tropical cyclogenesis in July in the Caribbean Sea. It is found that both the meridional gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) and SLP show a semi-annual feature, consistent with the semi-annual variation of the CLLJ. The CLLJ anomalies vary with the Caribbean SLP anomalies that are connected to the variation of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH). In association with the cold (warm) Caribbean SST anomalies, the atmosphere shows the high (low) SLP anomalies near the Caribbean region that are consistent with the anomalously strong (weak) easterly CLLJ. The CLLJ is also remotely related to the SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic, reflecting that these SST variations affect the NASH. During the winter, warm (cold) SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific correspond to a weak (strong) easterly CLLJ. However, this relationship is reversed during the summer. This is because the effects of ENSO on the NASH are opposite during the winter and summer. The CLLJ varies in phase with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) since a strong (weak) NASH is associated with a strengthening (weakening) of both the CLLJ and the NAO. The CLLJ is positively correlated with the 925-hPa meridional wind anomalies from the ocean to the United States via the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the CLLJ and the meridional wind carry moisture from the ocean to the central United States, usually resulting in an opposite (or dipole) rainfall pattern in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Atlantic warm pool versus the central United States.     

西北太平洋海温增暖对热带气旋潜在破坏力的影响:高分辨模式个例分析

以三个西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）为例,利用WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式进行了一系列海表温度（SST）敏感性数值试验,揭示了西北太平洋SST增暖对TC的强度、尺度及潜在破坏力的影响及其机理。结果表明,在距TC中心100 km以内区域的SST升高有利于TC强度增加,但会减小TC内核尺度;而在距TC中心100 km以外的SST升高并不会使TC强度明显增加甚至使TC强度减弱,但同时会增加TC内核尺度。伴随着低层向眼墙的入流,升高的外区SST会使TC区表层的大气温度和湿度升高,造成眼墙附近海气温差和湿度差及向内的气压梯度力减小,进而减少进入TC眼墙内的感热和潜热,不利于TC增强,但有利于眼墙向外移动,使TC内核尺度增加。内区SST升高与外区SST升高对TC强度及尺度变化的作用机理相反。因此,当TC移过冷或暖洋面时,TC的强度和尺度的变化不仅取决于局地洋面的冷或暖状况,还取决于TC内区和外区SST的差异。由于TC内区和外区SST对TC强度和内核尺度的不同作用,可能存在一个临界范围,当暖池范围在这个临界范围之内时TC潜在破坏力随暖池范围的扩大而增大,但当暖池范围超过这个临界范围时TC潜在破坏力便不会随着暖池范围的继续扩大而增大,甚至会有所减小。