Surface radar-derived convective rainfall associations with Midwest US land surface conditions in summer seasons 1999 and 2000

Previous research has suggested that spatial heterogeneities in soil moisture and/or vegetation cover promote the development of convective clouds. We examine the intensity of convective precipitation for the Midwest US Corn Belt in the summers of 1999 and 2000, which had contrasting synoptic circulation, atmospheric humidity, and soil moisture conditions. For days when synoptic scale atmospheric forcing is weak, we calculate a convective severity index (CSI) based on radar reflectivity composite values. Our results suggest that boundaries between soil types, and cropland and forest vegetation types in the western portion of the Corn Belt, enhance the development of convective precipitation. In the eastern part of the Corn Belt, less convection occurs, but we find a positive correlation between the intensity of convection and soil moisture conditions. Our results also demonstrate that the CSI is a simple yet effective technique for identifying where deep convection occurs relative to lighter precipitation.     

陆气相互作用对中尺度对流系统影响的研究进展

文章回顾了大气对地表性质的敏感性研究,以及陆气相互作用对中尺度天气过程的影响,说明了地表性质与积云对流及对流降水之间的联系。地表性质的改变对行星边界层的热通量、水汽通量、对流有效位能产生影响,并通过湍流的垂直输送,进而影响到其上大气的性质。陆气之间存在着复杂的、非线性的相互作用。性质不均匀的下垫面造成地表向大气感热通量和潜热通量的差异,从而在近地层大气中形成温度和气压梯度,产生局地环流,在条件适合的情况下可以形成对流,并产生降水,而降水的不均匀分布,又维持了下垫面的不均匀性。土壤湿度对对流的影响受到多个因素的制约,其中天气尺度过程的影响是很显著的;由非均匀的下垫面所产生的局地环流能够触发积云对流。     

Local Initiation of Deep Convection on the Canadian Prairie Provinces

Our study found that local mesoscale circulations associated with highlandareas, and transient evapotranspiration discontinuities, are likely to influencethe timing and location of the initiation of deep convection across the Canadianprairie provinces when synoptic-scale forcing is weak (e.g., weak low level windsand no frontal boundaries). The cumulus congestus and cumulonimbus clouds thatformed over the highland areas were initiated by anabatic wind induced mesoscalecirculations. These deep convective clouds generally formed relatively early in theday (about 1030 Central Standard Time (CST)). In the relatively flat cropped grasslandregion, transient evapotranspiration gradients influenced the location of deep convectioninitiation, and the average soil moisture in the root zone had a direct impact on theirtiming. As root zone soil moisture declined from greater than 70% to less than 30%,convection initiation was delayed from about 0930 to 1630 CST. Cumulus congestusand cumulonimbus clouds that formed over the ephemeral evapotranspiration gradientswere initiated by land-land circulations. The study has improved the understanding ofthe influence of local surface forcing on the development of deep convective cloud onthe Canadian prairie provinces. The identification of areas where deep convection islikely to be initiated with weak synoptic forcing will also aid in the forecasting ofthunderstorms in this region.     

贺兰山东麓极端暴雨的中尺度特征

利用近10年宁夏逐时自动气象站降水、银川CD雷达、FY-2、探空和ECMWF再分析0.125°x 0.125°等高分辨率多源气象资料,在中尺度系统分型基础上,对比分析贺兰山东麓6次极端暴雨的中尺度特征.结果表明:(1)低空偏(东)南急流夜间增强并配合贺兰山地形,在东坡山前触发或增强了暴雨中小尺度系统,造成地形处降水增幅...     

一种基于数值模式诊断自适应的北京地区对流性降水临近集合预报新方法

局地触发及组织化发展中尺度系统的生消演变是影响对流性降水临近预报的核心和关键。本文结合雷达外推预报、专家系统以及快速循环更新的高分辨数值模式系统,发展和构造了一种适合北京地区的基于数值模式预报诊断自适应的对流性降水临近集合预报新方法（APEN）。APEN基于降水外推预报结果,采用模糊逻辑算法,利用北京市气象局快速循环更新同化系统（RMAPS-IN）提供的对流诊断因子,计算对流系统发展演变（新生、增加和减弱）概率;在此基础上,扰动诊断因子阈值和权重,形成对流发展的集合概率预报;最后综合专家经验,根据对流集合概率,在降水外推预报基础上进行对流性降水调整。应用APEN,针对北京两次强弱降水过程,进行了降水的临近预报试验,结果表明:基于RMAPS-IN多种诊断因子的对流发展集合概率在强弱两种天气背景下,都能较好的反映对流系统在临近时段的发展趋势;基于专家经验模型的三种对流发展状态（对流新生、增加和减弱）下的降水调整,能合理的表征对流系统发展演变对降水的影响。APEN降水预报和RMAPS-IN的业务预报的对比显示:无论是系统性对流过程还是局地激发对流过程,APEN预报的降水落区和强度都更接近于实况,尤其是考虑对流发展演变影响的降水强度预报明显优于RMAPS-IN,APEN在北京地区对流性降水的临近预报中有明显的优势和应用潜力。     

Soil moisture-temperature feedbacks at meso-scale during summer heat waves over Western Europe

This paper investigates the impact of soil moisture-temperature feedback during heatwaves occurring over France between 1989 and 2008. Two simulations of the weather research and forecasting regional model have been analysed, with two different land-surface models. One resolves the hydrology and is able to simulate summer dryness, while the other prescribes constant and high soil moisture and hence no soil moisture deficit. The sensitivity analysis conducted for all heatwave episodes highlights different soil moisture-temperature responses (1) over low-elevation plains, (2) over mountains and (3) over coastal regions. In the plains, soil moisture deficit induces less evapotranspiration and higher sensible heat flux. This has the effect of heating the planetary boundary layer and at the same time of creating a general condition of higher convective instability and a slight increase of shallow cloud cover. A positive feedback is created which increases the temperature anomaly during the heatwaves. In mountainous regions, enhanced heat fluxes over dry soil reinforce upslope winds producing strong vertical motion over the mountain slope, first triggered by thermal convection. This, jointly to the instability conditions, favors convection triggering and produces clouds and precipitation over the mountains, reducing the temperature anomaly. In coastal regions, dry soil enhances land/sea thermal contrast, strengthening sea-breeze circulation and moist cold marine air advection. This damps the magnitude of the heatwave temperature anomaly in coastal areas, expecially near the Mediterranean coast. Hence, along with heating in the plains, soil dryness can also have a significant cooling effect over mountains and coastal regions due to meso-scale circulations.     

华东地区一次飑线过程的数值模拟与诊断分析

本文利用ARPS(Advanced Regional Prediction System)同化多部多普勒雷达观测资料和常规地面探空观测资料,对2009年8月17日发生在我国华东地区的一次飑线过程进行高分辨率数值模拟;利用模拟输出资料,分析该飑线过程的动力和热力特征和对流线单体后向新生的环境条件。研究结果表明:(1)在飑线系统初生阶段,从飑线后部(北方)的团状对流系统的低层MCV(mesoscale convective vortex)中南下的冷空气与西南暖湿气流相遇激发强对流,促进飑线发展;随着飑线系统的发展和南移,团状强对流系统的低层MCV的气旋性环流对飑线的影响逐渐减弱,而飑线本身产生的低层冷池向外辐散的冷空气与环境场西南暖湿气流辐合成为飑线持续发展的主要动力。(2)本次飑线系统属于典型的后向新生型飑线,由4条处于不同发展阶段的对流线合并而成,对流线上对流单体的后向新生是动力和热力过程共同作用的结果,既需要一定的对流抑制能量促进对流有效位能的累积,也需要一定的环境风场垂直切变、低层风场的辐合和水平涡管向垂直涡度的转化。     

Validating a regional climate model’s downscaling ability for East Asian summer monsoonal interannual variability

Performance of a regional climate model (RCM), WRF, for downscaling East Asian summer season climate is investigated based on 11-summer integrations associated with different climate conditions with reanalysis data as the lateral boundary conditions. It is found that while the RCM is essentially unable to improve large-scale circulation patterns in the upper troposphere for most years, it is able to simulate better lower-level meridional moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon. For precipitation downscaling, the RCM produces more realistic magnitude of the interannual variation in most areas of East Asia than that in the reanalysis. Furthermore, the RCM significantly improves the spatial pattern of summer rainfall over dry inland areas and mountainous areas, such as Mongolia and the Tibetan Plateau. Meanwhile, it reduces the wet bias over southeast China. Over Mongolia, however, the performance of precipitation downscaling strongly depends on the year: the WRF is skillful for normal and wet years, but not for dry years, which suggests that land surface processes play an important role in downscaling ability. Over the dry area of North China, the WRF shows the worst performance. Additional sensitivity experiments testing land effects in downscaling suggest the initial soil moisture condition and representation of land surface processes with different schemes are sources of uncertainty for precipitation downscaling. Correction of initial soil moisture using the climatology dataset from GSWP-2 is a useful approach to robustly reducing wet bias in inland areas as well as to improve spatial distribution of precipitation. Despite the improvement on RCM downscaling, regional analyses reveal that accurate simulation of precipitation over East China, where the precipitation pattern is strongly influenced by the activity of the Meiyu/Baiu rainfall band, is difficult. Since the location of the rainfall band is closely associated with both lower-level meridional moisture transport and upper-level circulation structures, it is necessary to have realistic upper-air circulation patterns in the RCM as well as lower-level moisture transport in order to improve the circulation-associated convective rainfall band in East Asia.     

The impact of convergence zones on the initiation of deep convection: A case study from COPS

During the ‘Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study’ (COPS) performed in summer 2007, deep convection developed on July 15, although convective available potential energy was only moderate and convective inhibition was high. Convection was restricted to an area east of the Black Forest crest. Data analysis revealed that the convection was triggered by different mechanisms. Due to a surface high which was situated east of the Black Forest and a surface low which approached the investigation area from the west, a mesoscale convergence zone was established between the two regions and moved eastwards. Secondly, high insolation favoured the development of slope and valley winds and high evapotranspiration resulted in an increase of moisture in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The thermally driven circulation systems formed a convergence zone along the mountain crest. When the synoptically induced mesoscale convergence zone reached the Black Forest, the different convergence zones superimposed optimally, such that strong updraughts were observed above the mountain. These updraughts penetrated the PBL-capping inversion and nearly reached the level of free convection. About 15 min after the convergence zone had passed the Black Forest crest, first clouds developed east of it. While moving further eastwards, the convergence zone intensified and became visible as a north-south oriented cloud line in the satellite images. Some deep convective cells with precipitation formed within the cloud line. The dense COPS network allowed the capture of the position and characteristics of the convergence zone and explains why convection developed in some restricted areas only.     

青岛市一次局地大暴雨天气成因和逆风区特征分析

利用地面和探空气象观测数据、雷达探测资料以及ECMWF（ERA5）0.25°×0.25°全球再分析数据,分析了2016年8月19日青岛市环胶州湾一次局地大暴雨过程的环流形势、环境条件及逆风区演变特征。结果表明:副热带高压边缘的地面冷锋进入倒槽,冷空气向地面辐合线的暖区渗透触发对流天气是此次过程的形成机制。此次大暴雨过程与地形关系紧密,主要分布在低层暖湿气流和山脉抬升作用形成的迎风坡前位涡大值区,该区域中低空垂直上升运动和相对湿度配合较好。大暴雨区站点的强降水时段与垂直上升运动时段吻合,小时最大雨量出现在垂直上升运动强度的跃增阶段。过程降水开始前,0℃层高度和近地面层比湿变化不大,CAPE值、K指数以及垂直风切变等各项不稳定指数均较08时明显增强。雷达产品分析显示,造成大暴雨的对流单体呈暖区对流特征,强降水前20~30min垂直风切变增强。此次降水过程产生的4处逆风区均出现在对流单体生成之后,为对流单体下沉气流产生的与环境风相反方向的辐散气流。其中2处低层相对湿度大值区的逆风区能得到发展增强,而逆风区的发展则进一步促进了对流增强,此演变特征对本次大暴雨过程的临近预报预警有较好的指示作用。      

1211号“海葵”台风登陆后引发两段大暴雨过程的对比分析

利用地面加密自动站观测资料以及NCEP再分析资料,对1211号“海葵”台风登陆后在江苏引发的两段降水对流特征差异明显的大暴雨天气进行对比分析。结果表明:第一段区域性大暴雨天气发生在台风环流中心及北侧偏东风急流附近,此时台风环流完整,中心维持正压结构,环流中心及其北侧偏东急流附近伴有较大范围的水汽辐合和强上升运动,有利于区域性大暴雨天气发生,但降水发生在近乎中性的层结下,降水分布较均匀,发展平缓,降水期间对流活动较弱;第二段大暴雨则发生在远离环流中心的台风倒槽顶部,降水期间暴雨区中高层伴有较明显的冷平流,有利于对流不稳定层结发展,降水发展过程中,地面风场出现中尺度扰动,增强了局地辐合和气旋性涡度,加之地面锋区发展,促进了中尺度对流系统的形成和发展,此段降水中尺度特征显著,发展迅速,雨强大,伴有明显的对流特征,导致出现局地特大暴雨天气。     

A case study of mesoscale convective band (MCB) development and evolution along a quasi-stationary front

This paper presents a case study of mesoscale convective band （MCB） development along a quasi-stationary front over the Seout metropolitan area.The MCB,which initiated on 1500 UTC 20 September 2010 and ended on 1400 UTC 21 September 2010,produced a total precipitation amount of 259.5 mm.The MCB development occurred during a period of tropopause folding in the upper level and moisture advection with a low-level jet.The analyses show that the evolution of the MCB can be classified into five periods：（1） the cell-forming period,when convection initiated; （2） the frontogenetic period,when the stationary front formed over the Korean peninsula; （3） the quasi-stationary period,when the convective band remained over Seoul for 3 h; （4） the mature period,when the cloud cover was largest and the precipitation rate was greater than 90 mm h-1; and （5） the dissipating period,when the MCB diminished and disappeared.The synoptic,thermodynamic,and dynamic analyses show that the MCB maintained its longevity by a tilted updraft,which headed towards a positive PV anomaly.Precipitation was concentrated under this area,where a tilted ascending southwesterly converged with a tilted ascending northeasterly,at the axis of cyclonic rotation.The formation of the convective cell was attributed in part by tropopause folding,which enhanced the cyclonic vorticity at the surface,and by the low-level convergence of warm moist air and upperlevel divergence.The southwesterly flow ascended in a region with high moisture content and strong relative vorticity that maintained the development of an MCB along the quasi-stationary front.     

低层环境风场对积云模拟的作用

采用二维和三维完全弹性参数化冷云数值模式模拟研究了低层单向切变风场中积云的发展演变过程和地面降水特征。结果表明:在低层切变风场中，用热泡扰动方式激发对流的启动条件提高，而冷出流方式激发对流则更加容易。适当强度的低层切变使对流峰值强度减小，但积云生命史延长，地面累计总降水量增大，雨区拓宽，峰值雨强则减小。采用二维模式来模拟单向切变风场的对流活动虽然存在严重歪曲，但积云最大升速以及地面总降水随时间的演变特征与三维模拟结果一致。     

A Study on the Mesoscale Convective Systems during the Summer Monsoon Onset over the South China Sea in 1998 Part Ⅰ: Analysis of Large-Scale Fields for Occurrence and Development of the Mesoscale Convective Systems

The summer monsoon onset over the northern South China Sea (SCS) in May 16-20, 1998 was characterized by the abrupt onset of mesoscale convective activities and rapid increase of precipitation. The possible mechanism for formation of the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and related rain belts were revealed through discussing their forming physical conditions under the large-scale background: (1) The high pseudo-equivalent potential temperature and the convective instability in the lower troposphere, the low-level southwesterly confluence and the high-level divergence over South China and the northern SCS provided the favorable large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions for development of MCSs. The southwesterly flow from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) interacted with that to the western flank of the subtropical high, which constituted the major moisture channels, thus bringing about deep wet layers and strong moisture convergence;(2) triggered by several cold troughs from high and mid latitudes, the convectively unstable energy was released and the convective activities over the northern SCS broke out abruptly;(3)analysis of retrieved precipitation based on the dual-Doppler radar during South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) indicated that active convection influenced by the monsoon trough and corresponding wind shear line organized and formed continually some mesoscale convective rainbelts. During May 15-19,about 12 precipitation processes with 6-12-hour life span or more were observed;and (4) under the favorable synoptic conditions, establishment of the monsoon trough and shear line in the low levels, as well as production and development of mesoscale low vortex were all necessary conditions for the formation and maintenance of MCSs.     

A Study on the Mesoscale Convective Systems during the Summer Monsoon Onset over the South China Sea in 1998Part I: Analysis of Large-Scale Fields for Occurrence and Development of the Mesoscale Convective Systems

1. Introduction China is located in the East Asian monsoon re- gion. Every year's weather and climate in this region is deeply affected by the monsoon activities. Es- pecially, during flooding season (May to September), the summer monsoon controls large-scale precipitation patterns, the movement of seasonal rain belt and oc- currence of drought/flood disasters. The Asian mon- soon can be divided into two systems (Tao and Chen, 1987). As a major component and its unique location, the South …     

Variations of Precipitation Structure and Microwave Tbs During the Evolution of a Hailstorm from TRMM Observations

In this paper, a hailstorm occurring on 9 May 1999 in Huanghuai region was studied by using the combined data from the precipitation radar (PR), microwave image (TMI), and visible infrared scanner (VIRS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. According to the 3-orbit observations of 5-h duration from the TRMM satellite, the variation characteristics of the precipitation structures as well as cloud top temperature and microwave signals of the precipitating cloud were comprehensively analyzed during the evolution of hailstorm. The results show that the precipitation is obviously converted from early hail cloud with strong convection into the later storm cloud with weak convection. For hail cloud, there exists some strong convective cells, and the heavy solid precipitation is shown at the middle-top levels so that the contribution of rainfall amount above the freezing-layer to the column precipitation amount is rather larger than that within the melting-layer. However, for storm cloud, the convective cells are surrounded by the large area of stratiform precipitation, and the precipitation thickness gradually decreases, and the rainfall above the freezing-layer obviously reduces and the contribution of rainfall amount within the melting-layer rapidly increases. Therefore, the larger ratio of rainfall amount above the freezing layer to column precipitation amount is, the more convective the cloud is; reversely, the larger proportion of rainfall below the melting layer is, the more stable the stratiform cloud is. The different changing trends of microwave signals at different precipitation stages show that it is better to consider the structures and stages of precipitating cloud to choose the optimal microwave channels to retrieve surface rainfall.     

Experiments using new initial soil moisture conditions and soil map in the Eta model over La Plata Basin

An effort towards a more accurate representation of soil moisture and its impact on the modeling of weather systems is presented. Sensitivity tests of precipitation to soil type and soil moisture changes are carried out using the atmospheric Eta model for the numerical simulation of the development of a mesoscale convective system over northern Argentina. Modified initial soil moisture conditions were obtained from a hydrological balance model developed and running operationally at INPE. A new soil map was elaborated using the available soil profile information from Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina and depicts 18 different soil types. Results indicate that more accurate initial soil moisture conditions and incorporating a new soil map with hydraulic parameters, more representative of South American soils, improve daily total precipitation forecasts both in quantitative and spatial representations.     

NWP产品在强对流天气诊断分析中的应用

利用ECMWF、T213、T106数值预报产品及各物理量场,对已知中尺度系统发生发展的大尺度条件,预报中尺度环流出现的统计概率进行探讨:首先将武汉中心气象台过去总结的强对流天气模型与数值预报产品中的环流形势进行对比分析,当所预报的环流形势满足强对流天气模型时,认为大尺度条件将会促进中尺度天气的发生发展。再对数值预报产品中的有关物理要素场和值进行诊断分析,当所诊断的结果反映出有中尺度次级环流出现或有利中尺度对流天气发生时,最后对强对流天气落区、落点及降水性质进行诊断分析。同时,还利用AREM中尺度数值模式对2002年7月21~24日过程进行诊断分析,预报效果较好。,通过诊断分析,得出了强对流天气落区、落点及降水性质与各要素之间预报场和值的关系,同时也为今后精细化预报提供了启示和参考。     

基于波作用方程的南疆西部干旱区暴雨的组织化机理研究

本文采用位涡波作用密度和波作用方程,对一次南疆西部干旱区暴雨的组织化过程和机制进行了诊断研究,对影响暴雨对流系统组织化的关键物理过程进行了分析和讨论。位涡波作用密度耦合了多种影响对流云体演变的大气动热力扰动,能够良好描述对流系统的组织化过程。以此为基础,描述位涡波作用密度变化的波作用方程能够用来研究驱动对流系统组织化发展的物理因素。研究发现,波作用方程诊断得到的多个物理过程与扰动斜压性、扰动风切变和扰动涡度的发展演变有关,表明它们对对流组织化有重要作用,多条东西向的对流线发展为东北—西南向的带状对流系统过程中,包含强对流的维持和南北尺度的增大。对流线在东北向弱对流的发展增强与基本态气流对强对流区的热力输送引起扰动斜压性增强有关。影响对流线中部强对流的维持和南北向发展的关键过程包括:上升、下沉气流引起的热力输送导致对流线内扰动斜压性增强,扰动西风与扰动东风形成气旋性环流引起经向切变环流增强,及扰动经向风将扰动纬向风切变向对流中心区输送引起纬向切变增强、垂直环流增强。该研究表明,对流系统的组织化是大气多种动热力扰动演变和配合的结果,通过波作用演变方程能够比较清晰体现其中的关键过程,且波作用方程为波作用密度倾向,未来可探讨其对对流系统组织化的预报意义。     

Sensitivity of Precipitation in Aqua-Planet Experiments with an AGCM

The sensitivity of precipitation was studied by conducting control aqua-planet experiments(APEs) with a model to determine atmospheric general circulation.The model includes two versions: that with a spectral dynamical core(SAMIL) and that with a finite-volume dynamical core(FAMIL).Three factors were investigated including dynamical core,time-step length,and horizontal resolution.Numerical results show that the dynamical core significantly affects the structure of zonal averaged precipitation.FAMIL exhibited an equatorial precipitation belt with a single narrow peak,and SAMIL showed a broader belt with double peaks.Moreover,the time step of the model physics is shown to affect the zonal-averaged tropical convective precipitation ratio such that a longer time step leads to more production and consumption of convective available potential energy and convection initiated away from the equator,which corresponds to equatorial double peaks of precipitation.Further,precipitation is determined to be sensitive to horizontal resolution such that higher horizontal resolution allows for more small-scale kinetic energy to be resolved and leads to a broader probability distribution of low-level vertical velocity.This process results in heavier rainfall and convective precipitation extremes in the tropics.Abstract The sensitivity of precipitation was studied by conducting control aqua-planet experiments(APEs)with a model to determine atmospheric general circulation.The model includes two versions:that with a spectral dynamical core(SAMIL)and that with a finite-volume dynamical core(FAMIL).Three factors were investigated including dynamical core,time-step length,and horizontal resolution.Numerical results show that the dynamical core significantly affects the structure of zonal averaged precipitation.FAMIL exhibited an equatorial precipitation belt with a single narrow peak,and SAMIL showed a broader belt with double peaks.Moreover,the time step of the model physics is shown to affect the zonal-averaged tropical convective precipitation ratio such that a longer time step leads to more production and consumption of convective available potential energy and convection initiated away from the equator,which corresponds to equatorial double peaks of precipitation.Further,precipitation is determined to be sensitive to horizontal resolution such that higher horizontal resolution allows for more small-scale kinetic energy to be resolved and leads to a broader probability distribution of low-level vertical velocity.This process results in heavier rainfall and convective precipitation extremes in the tropics.