Similarity-based multi-model ensemble approach for 1–15-day advance prediction of monsoon rainfall over India

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The southwest (SW) monsoon season (June, July, August and September) is the major period of rainfall over the Indian region. The present study focuses on the...     

Optical and physical characterization of ��Iraqi freedom�� dust storm, a case study

Kuwait was exposed to a severe dust storm on 19 March 2003, the eve of operation ??Iraqi Freedom??. Three days of dust events (19, 26, 27 March) were analyzed for their aerosol optical and physical properties using ground-based and satellite-retrieved measurements. Ground-based measurements of aerosol optical depth (or thickness; AOD or AOT) at 675?nm, ?? ₆₅₇, ?ngstrom coefficient ?? _936/657, particulate matter of diameter 10???m or less, PM₁₀ (??g/m³), and meteorological parameters were analyzed for March 2003. AOT exceeded 3 for the 3?days of interest and PM₁₀ concentrations reached as high value as 2,457???g/m³ on 19 March dust storm day. Retrieved aerosol characteristics from space using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) on board Terra and Aqua satellite were examined against ground-based measurements. A strong correlation was found between ground-based measurements of ?? ₆₇₅ and the Terra-MODIS retrieved AOD₅₅₀. The synoptic of the dust storm were analyzed and source regions were identified using back trajectory analysis and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer Aerosol Index.     

Documentary reconstruction of monsoon rainfall variability over western India, 1781–1860

Investigations into the climatic forcings that affect the long-term variability of the Indian summer monsoon are constrained by a lack of reliable rainfall data prior to the late nineteenth century. Extensive qualitative and quantitative meteorological information for the pre-instrumental period exists within historical documents, although these materials have been largely unexplored. This paper presents the first reconstruction of monsoon variability using documentary sources, focussing on western India for the period 1781–1860. Three separate reconstructions are generated, for (1) Mumbai, (2) Pune and (3) the area of Gujarat bordering the Gulf of Khambat. A composite chronology is then produced from the three reconstructions, termed the Western India Monsoon Rainfall reconstruction (WIMR). The WIMR exhibits four periods of generally deficient monsoon rainfall (1780–1785, 1799–1806, 1830–1838 and 1845–1857) and three of above-normal rainfall (1788–1794, 1813–1828 and 1839–1844). The WIMR shows good correspondence with a dendroclimatic drought reconstruction for Kerala, although agreement with the western Indian portion of the tree-ring derived Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas is less strong. The reconstruction is used to examine the long-term relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon rainfall over western India. This exhibits peaks and troughs in correlation over time, suggesting a regular long-term fluctuation. This may be an internal oscillation in the ENSO-monsoon system or may be related to volcanic aerosol forcings. Further reconstructions of monsoon rainfall are necessary to validate this. The study highlights uncertainties in existing published rainfall records for 1817–1846 for western India.     

Multiyear hindcast simulations of summer monsoon over South Asia using a nested regional climate model��BCC_RegCM1.0

Multiyear (1983?C2006) hindcast simulation of summer monsoon over South Asia has been carried out using the regional climate model of the Beijing Climate Centre (BCC_RegCM1.0). The regional climate model (hereafter BCC RCM) is nested into the global climate model of the Beijing Climate Centre BCC_CGCM1.0 (here after CGCM). The regional climate model is initialized on 01 May and integrated up to the end of the September for 24?years. Compared to the driving CGCM the BCC RCM reproduces reasonably well the intensity and magnitude of the large-scale features associated with the South Asia summer monsoon such as the upper level anticyclone at 200?hPa, the mid-tropospheric warming over the Tibetan plateau, the surface heat low and the 850?hPa moisture transport from ocean to the land. Both models, i.e., BCC RCM and the driving CGCM overestimates (underestimates) the 850?hPa southwesterly flow over the northern (southern) Arabian Sea. Moreover, both models overestimate the seasonal mean precipitation over much of the South Asia region compared to the observations. However, the precipitation biases are significantly reduced in the BCC RCM simulations. Furthermore, both models simulate reasonably the interannual variability of the summer monsoon over India. The precipitation index simulated by BCC RCM shows significant correlation (0.62) with the observed one. The BCC RCM simulates reasonably well the spatial and temporal variation of the precipitation and surface air temperature compared to the driving CGCM. Further, the temperature biases are significantly reduced (1?C4°C) in the BCC RCM simulations. The simulated vertical structure of the atmosphere show biases above the four sub-regions, however, these biases are significantly reduced in the BCC RCM simulations compared to the driving CGCM. Compared to the driving CGCM, the evolution processes of the onset of summer monsoon, e.g., the meridional temperature gradient and the vertical wind shear are well simulated by the BCC RCM. The 24-year simulations also show that with a little exception the BCC RCM is capable to reproduce the monsoon active and break phases and the intraseasonal precipitation variation over the Indian subcontinent.     

Energy-GDP decoupling in a second best world—a case study on India

Reference emission scenarios in the literature have been the target of criticisms that suggest they convey too optimistic views on spontaneous energy-GDP decoupling of emerging countries economies. This article focuses on the case of India. It explores the role of current suboptimalities of the Indian power sector (structural under-investment in the sector leading to capacity shortage, power cuts and low efficiency) on future energy-GDP decoupling. To do so, it uses a hybrid general equilibrium framework, in which these suboptimalities are explicitly introduced. The results highlight that whether the constraints on investments in the power sector persist or not leads to contrasted trends in energy-GDP decoupling and GHG emissions. Over the short-term, capital scarcity in the power sector constrains the development of energy-intensive activities and therefore leads to higher energy-GDP decoupling. But on the longer-term, constrains on the power sector capacity limits substitution from fossil fuels to electricity, which entails both a low energy-GDP decoupling and a constraint on GDP growth when oil prices are high. The alleviation of suboptimalities appears thus as an insurance policy towards future oil price increase.     

A Universal Spectrum for Interannual Variability of Monsoon Rainfall over India

Continuous periodogram analyses of 115 years (1871-1985) summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region show that the power spectra follow the universal and unique inverse power law form of the statistical normal distribution with the percentage contribution to total variance representing the eddy probability corresponding to the normalized standard deviation equal to [(log L / log T50)-1] where L is the period length in years and T50 the period up to which the cumulative percentage contribution to total variance is equal to 50. The above results are consistent with a recently developed non-deterministic cell dynamical model for atmospheric flows. The implications of the above result for prediction of interannual variability of rainfall is discussed.     

Observed variability and trends in extreme temperature indices and rice–wheat productivity over two districts of Bihar, India—a case study

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the trends and variability in extreme temperature indices and its impact on rice–wheat productivity over two districts of Bihar, India, which is part of the middle Indo-Gangetic Basin. Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for detection of trend and Sen slope was determined to quantify the magnitude of such trends. We have analyzed 10 extreme temperature indices for monthly and seasonally. The influence of extreme temperature indices on rice–wheat productivity was determined using correlation analysis. As far as Patna is concerned, if the number of cool days during September ≥10, the rice productivity will increase due to the availability of sufficient duration to fill up the grain. However, higher warm days during all the months except June will affect the productivity. A significant negative correlation was noticed between maximum value of minimum temperature during September and rice productivity. Highly significant positive correlation was noticed between number of cool days during September with rice productivity while it was highly significant negative correlation in the case of number of warm days during the same month. As far as Samastipur is concerned, a negative correlation was noticed between wheat productivity and maximum value of maximum temperature (TXx) during February, but not statistically significant. The higher temperature may affect the kernel weight and thereby yield. It is seen that a critical value of TXx ≥29.2 °C will be harmful to wheat crop during February. A significant positive correlation of number of cool nights with wheat productivity also supports the above relationship. The critical values of extreme temperature indices during rice and wheat growing months provide an indicator to assess the vulnerability of rice–wheat productivity to temperature for Patna and Samastipur districts and there is a need to prepare an adaptive strategy and also develop thermo-insensitive rice–wheat high yielding varieties suitable for this region to sustain rice–wheat productivity under projected climate change situation.     

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source to date, providing over two-thirds of all renewable electricity globally. For countries with significant hydropower potential, the technology is expected to play a major role in the energy transition needed to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions as laid out in the Paris Agreement. For the Republic of Ecuador, large hydropower is currently considered as the main means for attaining energy security, reducing electricity prices and mitigating GHG emissions in the long-term. However, uncertainty around the impacts of climate change, investment cost overruns and restrictions to untapped resources may challenge the future deployment of hydropower and consequently impact decarbonization efforts for Ecuador’s power sector. To address these questions, a partial equilibrium energy system optimization model for Ecuador (TIMES-EC) is used to simulate alternative electricity capacity expansion scenarios up to 2050. Results show that the share of total electricity supplied by hydropower in Ecuador might vary significantly between 53% to 81% by 2050. Restricting large hydropower due to social-environmental constraints can cause a fourfold increase in cumulative emissions compared to NDC implied levels, while a 25% reduction of hydropower availability due to climate change would cause cumulative emissions to double. In comparison, a more diversified power system (although more expensive) which limits the share of large hydropower and natural gas in favour of other renewables could achieve the expected NDC emission levels. These insights underscore the critical importance of undertaking detailed whole energy system analyses to assess the long-term challenges for hydropower deployment and the trade-offs among power system configuration, system costs and expected GHG emissions in hydropower-dependent countries, states and territories.

Key policy insights

• Ecuador’s hydropower-based NDC is highly vulnerable to the occurrence of a dry climate scenario and restrictions to deployment of large hydropower in the Amazon region.

• Given Ecuador’s seasonal runoff pattern, fossil-fuel or renewable thermoelectric backup will always be required, whatever the amount of hydropower installed.

• Ecuador’s NDC target for the power sector is achievable without the deployment of large hydropower infrastructure, through a more diversified portfolio with non-hydro renewables.

     

Vertical structure of sea-breeze circulation over Thumba (8.5°N,?76.9°E,?India) in the winter months and a case study during W-ICARB field experiment

This research article aims at characterization of the sea-breeze circulation over Thumba (8.5°N,?76.9°E,?India) in the winter season from December 2008 to February 2009, when this mesoscale circulation over the study domain was prominent. The characteristics of sea-breeze circulation cell comprising sea-breeze and compensatory return flow are investigated for clear-sky and cloudy days. The study indicated delayed onset of sea-breeze on the cloudy days as compared to the clear-sky days and the vertical thickness of sea-breeze circulation cell was found to be larger for the clear-sky days. Vertical thickness of the return flow for both clear-sky and cloudy days was larger than that of the sea-breeze flow. Simultaneous observations of upper-air meteorological parameters obtained through balloon-borne GPS sonde ascents carried out from Thumba and its adjoining coastal ocean on 29 January 2009 as part of the Winter phase of Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (W-ICARB) are utilized for a case study towards investigation of diurnal evolution of the sea-breeze circulation cell. Results obtained from this study indicated systematic evolution of sea-breeze circulation over Thumba, however, it was not very clear over ocean which is attributed to cloudy conditions that prevailed on the day of measurement.     

Intra-annual variations of teak cellulose ��18O in Kerala, India: implications to the reconstruction of past summer and winter monsoon rains

A seasonal cycle has been observed in the high and coarse resolution intra-annual analyses of oxygen isotopic composition (??¹⁸O) of teak (Tectona grandis) cellulose from southern India, that receives both the south-west (SW) (summer) and the north-east (NE) (winter, more depleted in ¹⁸O) monsoon rains. The seasonal cycle as recorded by teak, with an amplitude between 1 and 3??, shows lower ??¹⁸O values at the early and late growing seasons than at the middle. This pattern is opposite to that found in central Indian teak, nurtured mostly by the SW monsoon rain. A comparison of the observed and modeled intra-annual profiles reveals that the observed pattern of intra-annual ??¹⁸O variation in southern India is explainable only if teak trees had sampled rainfall from both the monsoons. Thus it appears possible to detect years of past excess NE monsoon rains by analyzing the ??¹⁸O of cellulose from the latewood of teak trees growing in Kerala, southern India.     

Study of Ozone and NO2 over Gadanki – a rural site in South India

We have studied long-term changes in tropospheric NO₂ over South India using ground-based observations, and GOME and OMI satellite data. We have found that unlike urban regions, the region between Eastern and Western Ghat mountain ranges experiences statistically significant decreasing trend. There are few ground-based observatories to verify satellite based trends for rural regions. However, using a past study and recent measurements we show a statistically significant decrease in NO_X and O₃ mixing ratio over a rural location (Gadanki; 13.48° N, 79.18° E) in South India. In the ground-based records of surface NO_X, the concentration during 2010–11 is found to be lower by 0.9 ppbv which is nearly 60 % of the values observed during 1994–95. Small but statistically significant decrease in noon-time peak ozone concentration is also observed. Noon-time peak ozone concentration has decreased from 34?±?13 ppbv during 1993–96 to 30?±?15 ppbv during 2010–11. NO_X mixing ratios are very low over Gadanki. In spite of low NO_X values (0.5 to 2 ppbv during 2010–11), ozone mixing ratios are not significantly low compared to many cities with high NO_X. The monthly mean ozone mixing ratio varies from 9 ppbv to 37 ppbv with high values during Spring and low values during late Summer. Using a box-model, we show that presence of VOCs is also very important in addition to NO_X in determining ozone levels in rural environment and to explain its seasonal cycle.     

The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2��C with respect to pre-industrial times

In this study the potential future changes in different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed, focussing on the role of the different mechanisms leading to these changes. In addition, these changes as well as the underlying mechanisms are compared to the corresponding changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming exceeding 4.5°C, associated with the widely used SRES A1B scenario. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model, each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (2020?C2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming dioes not exceed 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times. In the other set of simulations (1860?C2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. The study reveals marked changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial conditions, namely an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation despite a weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation. The increase in the monsoon rainfall is related to a variety of different mechanisms, with the intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region as the most important one. The weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation is mainly caused by changes in the Walker circulation with large-scale divergence (convergence) in the lower (uppper) troposphere over the Indian Ocean in response to enhanced convective activity over the Indian Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific and reduced convective activity over the western tropical Pacific. These changes in the Walker circulation induce westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at lower (upper) level in the Indian region. The comparison with the changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 4.5°C reveals that both the intensification of the monsoon precipitation and the weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation (particularly in the lower troposphere) are relatively strong (with respect to the magnitude of the projected global warming by the end of the twentieth century for the two scenarios) in the scenario with a global warming of 2°C. The relatively strong intensification of the monsoon rainfall is related to rather strong increases in evaporation over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, while a rather weak amplification of the meridional temperature gradient between the Indian Ocean and the land areas to the north contributes to the relatively strong reduction of the large-scale monsoon flow.     

Quantifying interregional flows of multiple ecosystem services – A case study for Germany

Despite a growing number of national-scale ecosystem service (ES) assessments, few studies consider the impacts of ES use and consumption beyond national or regional boundaries. Interregional ES flows – ecosystem services “imported” from and “exported” to other countries – are rarely analyzed and their importance for global sustainability is little known. Here, we provide a first multi-ES quantification of a nation's use of ES from abroad. We focus on ES flows that benefit the population in Germany but are supplied outside German territory. We employ a conceptual framework recently developed to systematically quantify interregional ES flows. We address four types of interregional ES flows with: (i) biophysical flows of traded goods: cocoa import for consumption; (ii) flows mediated by migratory species: migration of birds providing pest control; (iii) passive biophysical flows: flood control along transboundary watersheds; and (iv) information flows: China's giant panda loan to the Berlin Zoo. We determined that: (i) Ivory Coast and Ghana alone supply around 53% of Germany's cocoa while major negative consequences for biodiversity occurred in Cameroon and Ecuador; (ii) Africa´s humid and sub-humid climate zones are important habitats for the majority of migratory bird species that provide natural pest control services in agricultural areas in Germany; (iii) Upstream watersheds outside the country add an additional 64% flood regulation services nationally, while Germany exports 40% of flood regulation services in neighboring, downstream countries; (iv) Information flows transported by the pandas were mainly related to political aspects and - contrary to our expectations - considerably less on biological and natural aspects. We discuss the implications of these results for international resource management policy and governance.     

Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania

Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.     

Physical explanation of the weakened brightness temperature difference signal over the yellow sea during a dust event: Case study for March 15–16, 2009

This paper attempts to explain the cause of weakening or disappearing brightness temperature difference (BTD) signatures, in particular, over the Yellow Sea during the March 15–16, 2009 dust event. Using a simple correction approach that removes the effects of emissivity difference and water vapor effect difference, we confirmed that the weakening or disappearing BTD signatures noted over the Yellow Sea are largely due to the spectral emissivity contrast between land and ocean. The weakening or disappearing dust is hypothesized to be pronounced when the dust loading is weak because of the surface contribution to the top of atmosphere radiance, and that it is mainly due to the difference in spectral emissivity over the window band between land and ocean. It is further suggested that water vapor may be considered as a correction factor in spite of its smaller contribution.     

Evaluation of Forecast Performance of an Economical Explicit Time Integration Scheme in a Limited Area Model over Indian Region

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Sharp depletion of atmospheric refractive index associated with Nor��wester over Gangetic West Bengal: a possible method of forecasting Nor��wester

The paper presents the nature of the variation of refractive index of atmospheric medium with time and altitude before, during and after the onset of thunderstorms over Gangetic West Bengal during the pre-monsoon period. A critical analysis shows that sharp depletion of the refractive index takes place before the onset of Nor??westers and possible explanations are also offered for the said occurrence.     

Distribution of nitrate over sea-salt and soil derived particles — Implications from a field study

A method for determining the distribution of supermicrometer nitrate between size-segregated sea-salt and soil derived particles is presented. The analysis is based on field data from six measurements at a coastal site in southern Finland, and on a theoretical treatment taking into account the transfer of gaseous species onto particle surfaces and their subsequent reaction. Significant amounts of nitrate were found in both the particle types, with the fraction of nitrate associated with soil particles varying from 20–50% in the 1–2 m size to near 90% in particles larger than 10 m. Overall, the nitrate accumulation followed closely the relative abundances of these two particle types. Two overlapping modes in supermicron nitrate mass size distributions could be identified. The lower mode, associated with sea-salt, was located between the surface-area and volume distribution of sodium peaking at about 2–3 m of EAD. The upper mode peaked at 3–5 m and followed more closely the surface-area distribution of calcium in all samples. At our site, the accumulation of nitrate into both particle types was shown to be limited by an effective surface reaction rate rather than by gas-phase diffusion. This rate was estimated to be considerably larger for sea-salt particles. Strong evidence in support of the saturation of nitrate in sea-salt particles were obtained.