Atmospheric circulation anomalies during two persistent north american droughts: 1932�C1939 and 1948�C1957

We use an early twentieth century (1908?C1958) atmospheric reanalysis, based on assimilation of surface and sea level pressure observations, to contrast atmospheric circulation during two periods of persistent drought in North America: 1932?C1939 (the ??Dust Bowl??) and 1948?C1957. Primary forcing for both droughts is believed to come from anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs): a warm Atlantic and a cool eastern tropical Pacific. For boreal winter (October?CMarch) in the 1950s, a stationary wave pattern originating from the tropical Pacific is present, with positive centers over the north Pacific and north Atlantic ocean basins and a negative center positioned over northwest North America and the tropical/subtropical Pacific. This wave train is largely absent for the 1930s drought; boreal winter height anomalies are organized much more zonally, with positive heights extending across northern North America. For boreal summer (April?CSeptember) during the 1930s, a strong upper level ridge is centered over the Great Plains; this feature is absent during the 1950s and appears to be linked to a weakening of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Subsidence anomalies are co-located over the centers of each drought: in the central Great Plains for the 1930s and in a band extending from the southwest to the southeastern United States for the 1950s. The location and intensity of this subsidence during the 1948?C1957 drought is a typical response to a cold eastern tropical Pacific, but for 1932?C1939 deviates in terms of the expected intensity, location, and spatial extent. Overall, circulation anomalies during the 1950s drought appear consistent with the expected response to the observed SST forcing. This is not the case for the 1930s, implying some other causal factor may be needed to explain the Dust Bowl drought anomalies. In addition to SST forcing, the 1930s were also characterized by massive alterations to the land surface, including regional-scale devegetation from crop failures and intensive wind erosion and dust storms. Incorporation of these land surface factors into a general circulation model greatly improves the simulation of precipitation and subsidence anomalies during this drought, relative to simulations with SST forcing alone. Even with additional forcing from the land surface, however, the model still has difficulty reproducing some of the other circulation anomalies, including weakening of the GPLLJ and strengthening of the upper level ridge during AMJJAS. This may be due to either weaknesses in the model or uncertainties in the boundary condition estimates. Still, analysis of the circulation anomalies supports the conclusion of an earlier paper (Cook et?al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:4997, 2009), demonstrating that land degradation factors are consistent with the anomalous nature of the Dust Bowl drought.     

An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India��a historical perspective 1889�C2008

Mann?CKendall non-parametric test was employed for observational trend detection of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation of five meteorological subdivisions of Central Northeast India (CNE India) for different 30-year normal periods (NP) viz. 1889?C1918 (NP1), 1919?C1948 (NP2), 1949?C1978 (NP3) and 1979?C2008 (NP4). The trends of maximum and minimum temperatures were also investigated. The slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. An application of Morelet wavelet analysis was done with monthly rainfall during June?CSeptember, total rainfall during monsoon season and annual rainfall to know the periodicity and to test the significance of periodicity using the power spectrum method. The inferences figure out from the analyses will be helpful to the policy managers, planners and agricultural scientists to work out irrigation and water management options under various possible climatic eventualities for the region. The long-term (1889?C2008) mean annual rainfall of CNE India is 1,195.1?mm with a standard deviation of 134.1?mm and coefficient of variation of 11%. There is a significant decreasing trend of 4.6?mm/year for Jharkhand and 3.2?mm/day for CNE India. Since rice crop is the important kharif crop (May?COctober) in this region, the decreasing trend of rainfall during the month of July may delay/affect the transplanting/vegetative phase of the crop, and assured irrigation is very much needed to tackle the drought situation. During the month of December, all the meteorological subdivisions except Jharkhand show a significant decreasing trend of rainfall during recent normal period NP4. The decrease of rainfall during December may hamper sowing of wheat, which is the important rabi crop (November?CMarch) in most parts of this region. Maximum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during monsoon season and 0.014°C/year (at 0.01 level) during post-monsoon season during the period 1914?C2003. The annual maximum temperature also shows significant increasing trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during the same period. Minimum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.012°C/year (at 0.01 level) during post-monsoon season and significant falling trend of 0.002°C/year (at 0.05 level) during monsoon season. A significant 4?C8?years peak periodicity band has been noticed during September over Western UP, and 30?C34?years periodicity has been observed during July over Bihar subdivision. However, as far as CNE India is concerned, no significant periodicity has been noticed in any of the time series.     

Simultaneous observations of SAO and QBO in winds, temperature and ozone in the tropical middle atmosphere over Thumba (8.5��N, 77��E)

Owing to the importance of middle atmosphere, recently, a Middle Atmospheric Dynamics (MIDAS) program was carried out during the period 2002?C2007 at Thumba (8.5°N, 77°E). The measurements under this program, involving regular radiosonde/rocket flights as well as atmospheric radars, provided long period observations of winds and temperature in the middle atmospheric region from which waves and oscillations as well as their forcing mechanisms particularly in the low-latitude middle atmosphere could be analyzed. However, a detailed analysis of the forcing mechanisms remains incomplete due to the lack of important measurements like ozone which is a significant contributor to atmospheric dynamics. Presently, profiles of ozone are available from TIMED/SABER (Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broad Emission Radiometry) satellite globally from about 15 to 100?km, over multiple years since 2002. In this regard, a comprehensive study has been carried out on ozone and its variability at Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semiannual Oscillation (SAO) scales using TIMED/SABER ozone observations during the MIDAS campaign period. Before using the TIMED/SABER ozone measurements, an inter-comparison has been carried out with in situ measurements of ozone obtained under the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) campaign for the year 2007 at few stations. The inter-comparison showed very good agreement between SABER and ozonesonde derived ozone profiles. After validating the SABER observations, ozone profiles are used extensively to study the QBO and SAO along with temperature and winds in the 20?C100?km height region. It is known that the SAO in mesosphere and stratosphere are in opposite phases, but the present study for the first time reports the aspect of opposite phases in the mesosphere itself. Thus, the present work attempts to study the long-period oscillations in stratosphere and mesosphere in ozone, temperature and winds simultaneously for the first time over this latitude. These observations provided a unique opportunity to explore long-period oscillations in chemistry, dynamics and thermal structure of the middle atmosphere simultaneously.     

The 1958�C2009 Greenland ice sheet surface melt and the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation

In order to assess the impact of the mid-tropospheric circulation over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) on surface melt, as simulated by the regional climate model MAR, an automatic Circulation type classification (CTC) based on 500?hPa geopotential height from reanalyses is developed. General circulation correlates significantly with the surface melt anomalies for the summers in the period 1958?C2009. The record surface melt events observed during the summers of 2007?C2009 are linked to the exceptional persistence of atmospheric circulations favouring warm air advection. The CTC emphasizes that summer 500?hPa circulation patterns have changed since the beginning of the 2000s; this process is partly responsible for the recent warming observed over the GrIS.     

Short－term Climatic Fluctuations in North Atlantic Oscillation and Frequency of Cyclonic Disturbances over North Indian Ocean and Northwest Pacific

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Optical and physical characterization of ��Iraqi freedom�� dust storm, a case study

Kuwait was exposed to a severe dust storm on 19 March 2003, the eve of operation ??Iraqi Freedom??. Three days of dust events (19, 26, 27 March) were analyzed for their aerosol optical and physical properties using ground-based and satellite-retrieved measurements. Ground-based measurements of aerosol optical depth (or thickness; AOD or AOT) at 675?nm, ?? ₆₅₇, ?ngstrom coefficient ?? _936/657, particulate matter of diameter 10???m or less, PM₁₀ (??g/m³), and meteorological parameters were analyzed for March 2003. AOT exceeded 3 for the 3?days of interest and PM₁₀ concentrations reached as high value as 2,457???g/m³ on 19 March dust storm day. Retrieved aerosol characteristics from space using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) on board Terra and Aqua satellite were examined against ground-based measurements. A strong correlation was found between ground-based measurements of ?? ₆₇₅ and the Terra-MODIS retrieved AOD₅₅₀. The synoptic of the dust storm were analyzed and source regions were identified using back trajectory analysis and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer Aerosol Index.     

The summertime ��heat�� low over Pakistan/northwestern India: evolution and origin

A deep low in sea-level pressure is present from May to September over Pakistan and northwestern India (hereafter, the Pak?CIndia low). It is often referred as the ??heat?? low to convey the significance of surface thermal effects reckoned to be important for its origin. The present analysis, rooted in observations and diagnostic modeling, suggests that the Pak?CIndia low is influenced both by regional and remote forcing. Regionally, the influence of Hindu Kush mountains is found to be stronger than the impact of land-surface heating and attendant sensible heating of the planetary boundary layer, questioning the suitability of the ??heat?? label in canonical references to this circulation feature. Observational analysis indicates that the notable May-to-June deepening of the Pak?CIndia low and its further deepening in July, however, arises from remote forcing??the development of monsoon deep-convection over the Bay of Bengal and eastern India in June and July. It is hypothesized that the associated upstream descent over Iran?CTurkmenistan?CAfghanistan (i.e. east of the Caspian Sea) and related low-level northerlies over the Elburz?CZagros?CHindu Kush mountains contribute to the strengthening of the Pak?CIndia low in June (and July) from interaction with regional orography.     

Pre-onset land surface processes and ��internal�� interannual variabilities of the Indian summer monsoon

It is proposed that, land?Catmosphere interaction around the time of monsoon onset could modulate the first episode of climatological intraseasonal oscillation (CISO) and may generate significant ??internal?? interannual variation in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The regional climate model RegCM3 is used over Indian monsoon domain for 27?years of control simulation. In order to prove the hypothesis, another two sets of experiment are performed using two different boundary conditions (El Ni?o year and non-ENSO year). In each of these experiments, a single year of boundary conditions are used repeatedly year after year to generate ??internal?? interannual monsoon variability. Simulation of monsoon climate in the control model run is found to be in reasonably good agreement with observation. However, large rainfall bias is seen over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The interannual monsoon rainfall variability are of the same order in two experiments, which suggest that the external influences may not be important on the generation of ??internal?? monsoon rainfall variability. It is shown that, a dry (wet) pre-onset land-surface condition increases (decreases) rainfall in June which in turn leads to an anomalous increase (decrease) in seasonal (JJAS) rainfall. The phase and amplitude of CISO are modulated during May?CJune and beyond that the modulation of CISO is quite negligible. Though the pre-onset rainfall is unpredictable, significant modulation of the post-onset monsoon rainfall by it can be exploited to improve predictive skill within the monsoon season.     

Shortwave radiation�CSST relationship over the mid-latitude North Pacific during boreal summer in climate models

Over the mid-latitude North Pacific, there is a close relationship between interannual variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and surface shortwave radiation during boreal summer. The present study evaluates this relationship in coupled model simulations, forced model simulations, and retrospective forecasts. It is found that the simulation of this relationship in climate models is closely related to the model biases in the meridional gradients of mean SST and surface shortwave radiation. A southward shift in the region of large mean meridional gradients leads to a similar southward shift in the region of large correlation between the SST and shortwave radiation variations. The relationship is enhanced (weakened) when the mean meridional gradients are stronger (weaker) compared to observations. The shortwave radiation?CSST correlation is weak in individual forced simulations because of the interference of internally generated shortwave radiation variations. The shortwave radiation?CSST correlation increases significantly in the ensemble mean due to reduction of internally generated variability. The long-lead Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecasts have a better simulation of the shortwave radiation?CSST correlation compared to the short-lead forecasts. Estimation based on the CFS ensemble forecasts indicates that the high-frequency atmospheric variations contribute importantly to the SST variability over the mid-latitude North Pacific during boreal summer.     

Interannual Fluctuations of Surface Air Temperature over North America and Its Relationship to the North Pacific SST Anomaly

The characteristics of interannual fluctuations of the surface air temperature over North America are investigated by using the surface air temperature data of 130 stations during 1941 through 1980. It is found that the surface air temperature bears about ten-year time scale oscillation over the southeastern and northwestern North America and along the west coast of the United States, and it has the characteristics of quasibiennial oscillation over the eastern North America. The ten-year scale oscillation of the surface air temperature is related to that of the sea surface temperature (SST) of North Pacific through the PNA pattern atmospheric circulation anomaly over North Pacific through North America. It is shown that the North Pacific SST has a closer association with the surface air temperature over North America than the central and eastern equatorial Pacific SST. The characteristics of the seasonal variations of the relationship between the North Pacific SST and the surface air temperature over No     

Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.     

Meteorological scenario of Ethiopian floods in 2006�C2007

The meteorological scenario of Ethiopian highlands floods is studied. Daily rainfall in the period 1997?C2007 reveals two peaks: 23?C28 July 2006 and 26?C31 July 2007. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) composites suggest that anomalous southerly monsoon flow over the West Indian Ocean is re-directed by an anomalous Arabian ridge westward across the Red Sea and Ethiopia. A tongue of moisture stretches from the Congo towards the highlands, but westerly equatorial wind anomalies are absent. Anomalous sinking motions and dry conditions are evident over the West Indian Ocean. Diurnal analysis reveals northwesterly flow over eastern Sudan during afternoon hours, whilst back-trajectory analysis highlights a Red Sea source and lifting over the eastern escarpment of Ethiopia. The upper level tropical easterly jet connects Indian and Ethiopian rainfall at intra-seasonal (~40?days) time scale; whilst low-level meridional flow convergence is evident during flood events. Hovmoller analysis on 10°N reveals cyclonic signals propagating westward from the Arabian Sea at 500?km?day^?1 that produces a 10-day cycle in Ethiopian rainfall. The floods in 2006?C2007 occurred at the peak of the annual cycle, with diurnal controls inducing ? of rain in the late evening. Whilst cold surges from southern Africa played a role in the 2006 flood, bursts in the northern Hadley cell are a more general determinant. The convection associated with the 2007 flood went on to become a destructive Atlantic hurricane.     

Low-cloud and sunshine duration in the low-latitude belt of South China for the period 1961�C2005

In order to explore the trends in sunshine duration in the low-latitude belt of South China, long-term sunshine duration, total clouds, low clouds, and visibility were investigated for the period 1961?C2005. The results show significant declines in sunshine duration, occurring on the average of ?3.2% and ?2.8% per decade under all-sky and clear-sky conditions, respectively. It is noted that increased air aerosol loading due to rapid socio-economic development is the drive behind the sharp declines in sunshine duration in the study area. Though cloud is the primary regulator of sunshine duration under all-sky conditions, sunshine is strongly correlated with visibility under clear-sky conditions. Relational analysis between sunshine and cloud amount suggests 0.4% change in clouds per decade, which is well in agreement with the trend of decline in sunshine duration under all-sky conditions in the study area. Increasing low-cloud opacity could be the primary factor driving the decline in sunshine duration in the low-latitude belt of South China.     

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last 230?years

August Sea Surface Temperatures (aSSTs) based on fossil diatom assemblages are generated with 2?year average resolution from a 230-year-long sediment core (Rapid 21-12B), from the Reykjanes Ridge in the subpolar North Atlantic. The results indicate a warming trend of ~0.5°C of the surface waters at the Reykjanes Ridge for the last 230?years. Superimposed on this warming trend there is a multidecadal to decadal aSST variability of up to 1°C. The interval from the 1770s to the 1830s represents the coldest period, whereas ~1860?C1880 represents the warmest period during the last 230?years. The last 25?years is characterized by a warming trend showing strong decadal aSST variability with several warm years, but also the coldest years since the 1820s. The time of these cold years in the mid-1970s, -1980s and -1990s correspond with the documented great salinity anomalies (GSA) in the North Atlantic suggesting increased fluxes of cold, low-salinity waters from the Arctic during the last decades. The aSST record and the August North Atlantic Oscillation (aNAO) index show similar multidecadal-scale variability indicating a close coupling between the oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The aSST record shows a negative correlation with the aNAO indicating cold aSST during the positive aNAO trend and vice versa. Results suggest that the wind driven variation in volume fluxes of the North Atlantic surface waters could be the major mechanism behind the observed relationship.     

Persistent Features of Drought Strength in North China and Its Prediction

1. Introduction Drought disasters occur frequently in North China, with droughty extension being the widest, droughty intensity the most serious and lasting time the longest. In particular, the serious drought has threatened agriculture extremely in recent years, as such has influenced economy, ecosystem, and even daily life of people. The drought in North China is not only the vital research subject for meteorologists, but also one of the issues concerned for government. Therefore, finding …     

Contributions of Atlantic tropical cyclones to monthly and seasonal rainfall in the eastern United States 1960�C2007

Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Basin experiences great variability on intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal timescales. George Cry found that TC rainfall presents an intra-seasonal pattern over the eastern USA, contributing up to 40% of total monthly rainfall. This study replicates much of what was done by Cry using a denser rain gauge network and more sophisticated techniques for analysis. Rainfall data for this study come from 717 stations from the Historical Climate Network covering 31 states to capture the tropical cyclone (TC) contribution in monthly and seasonal precipitation in the eastern USA. Results showed that September has the highest TC rainfall contribution and the coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, and Alabama receive more than 30% of monthly rainfall totals from TCs. Comparisons between 1931?C1960 and 1960?C2007 study periods show that the storm track density shifted slightly eastward, which explains some of differences between the two analyses.     

An assessment of monsoon precipitation changes during 1901�C2001

Changes of global land monsoon precipitation are assessed by using three sets of rain-gauge precipitation data for the period of 1901?C2002 compiled by GPCC, CRU and Dai-dataset, respectively. The three datasets show consistent long-term changes of precipitation over the monsoon region with slightly different amplitudes. During 1901?C2001, global land monsoon precipitation (GMI) exhibits multi-decadal variations, with an overall increasing trend from 1901 to 1955, followed by a decreasing trend up to 2001. The upward trends of global and Northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitation during 1901?C1955 are mainly resulted from the increased precipitation over the North African, Indian and East Asian monsoon domains. For the whole period of 1901?C2001, precipitation averaged over the Northern Hemisphere and global land monsoon areas both exhibit a decreasing trend although it is only statistically significant at the 5% level for the Northern Hemisphere. The robust decreasing trend of Northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitations during the twentieth century mainly comes from the downward trend of North African and eastern part of Indian monsoon precipitation and occurs mainly after the 1950s. The first leading mode of Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of precipitation annual range features a coherent change of North African, South Asian, Northeast China, southern South African, eastern Australian and western American monsoon, and a coherent change over the equatorial South African monsoon and eastern American monsoon. The corresponding principal component time series also indicate that the majority of global land monsoon precipitation has experienced an increasing tendency from 1901 to 1955 and a decreasing trend since the 1950s. Examination on the impact of station number change indicates a negligible influence on the results, especially after 1905.     

Climate�Csoil�Cvegetation control on groundwater table dynamics and its feedbacks in a climate model

Among the three dynamically linked branches of the water cycle, including atmospheric, surface, and subsurface water, groundwater is the largest reservoir and an active component of the hydrologic system. Because of the inherent slow response time, groundwater may be particularly relevant for long time-scale processes such as multi-years or decadal droughts. This study uses regional climate simulations with and without surface water?Cgroundwater interactions for the conterminous US to assess the influence of climate, soil, and vegetation on groundwater table dynamics, and its potential feedbacks to regional climate. Analyses show that precipitation has a dominant influence on the spatial and temporal variations of groundwater table depth (GWT). The simulated GWT is found to decrease sharply with increasing precipitation. Our simulation also shows some distinct spatial variations that are related to soil porosity and hydraulic conductivity. Vegetation properties such as minimum stomatal resistance, and root depth and fraction are also found to play an important role in controlling the groundwater table. Comparing two simulations with and without groundwater table dynamics, we find that groundwater table dynamics mainly influences the partitioning of soil water between the surface (0?C0.5?m) and subsurface (0.5?C5?m) rather than total soil moisture. In most areas, groundwater table dynamics increases surface soil moisture at the expense of the subsurface, except in regions with very shallow groundwater table. The change in soil water partitioning between the surface and subsurface is found to strongly correlate with the partitioning of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. The evaporative fraction (EF) is generally higher during summer when groundwater table dynamics is included. This is accompanied by increased cloudiness, reduced diurnal temperature range, cooler surface temperature, and increased cloud top height. Although both convective and non-convective precipitation are enhanced, the higher EF changes the partitioning to favor more non-convective precipitation, but this result could be sensitive to the convective parameterization used. Compared to simulations without groundwater table dynamics, the dry bias in the summer precipitation is slightly reduced over the central and eastern US Groundwater table dynamics can provide important feedbacks to atmospheric processes, and these feedbacks are stronger in regions with deeper groundwater table, because the interactions between surface and subsurface are weak when the groundwater table is deep. This increases the sensitivity of surface soil moisture to precipitation anomalies, and therefore enhances land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere through changes in soil moisture and evaporative fraction. By altering the groundwater table depth, land use change and groundwater withdrawal can alter land surface response and feedback to the climate system.     

Phenological observations made by the I. R. Bohemian Patriotic�CEconomic Society, 1828�C1847

Drought forecasting is a critical component of drought risk management. Identification of effective predictors is a major component of forecasting models. Sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) are relevant predictors for short- to long-term drought forecasts. However, these datasets are captured globally within a cell-wise network. This paper describes an approach to locate the most effective cells of the SST and SLP datasets using data mining. They are then applied as input to an adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model to forecast possible droughts 3, 6, and 9?months in advance. Tehran plain was selected as the study area, and drought events are designated using the effective drought index (EDI). In another treatment, past values of the EDI time series were introduced to the ANFIS and the results compared with the previous findings. It was shown that R ² values were higher for all cases applying the SST/SLP datasets. Additionally, the performance of SST/SLP datasets and the ANFIS model was assessed according to ??drought?? or ??wet?? classification, and it was concluded that more than 90% of the time the ANFIS model detected the drought status correctly or with only a one class error.