Oceanic influence on the sub-seasonal to interannual timing and frequency of extreme dry spells over the West African Sahel

Intra-seasonal drought episodes (extreme dry spells) are strongly linked to crop yield loss in the West African Sahel, especially when they occur at crop critical stages such as juvenile or flowering stage. This paper seeks to expose potentially predictable features in the sub-seasonal to inter-annual occurrence of “extreme dry spells” (extDS) through their links to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). We consider two kinds of extreme dry spells: more than 2 weeks of consecutive dry days following a rain event (often found at the beginning of the rainy season, after the first rain events) and more than a week (observed towards the end of the rainy season, before the last rain events). We extract dry spells from daily rainfall data at 43 stations (31 stations in Senegal over 1950–2010 and 12 stations in Niger over 1960–2000) to identify the intra-seasonal distribution of extDS and their significant correlation with local rainfall deficits. Seasonality of distribution and high spatial coherence are found in the timing and the frequency of occurrence of extDS in different rainfall regions over Niger and Senegal. The correlation between the regional occurrence index (ROI), necessary to capture the spatial extent of extDS, and observed global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) sheds light on the influence of the external factors on the decadal, interannual and sub-seasonal variability of extDS over the West African Sahel. When the global tropics and the Atlantic are warmer than normal, more coherent and delayed June–July extDS are observed after onset of rainy season, as well as early cessation type in August–September. When the Indo-Pacific is cooler and the equatorial south Atlantic is warmer than normal little to no extDS are found in the onset sub-period of the monsoon season. Mostly late types of extDS occur in October as a result of late cessation. These results show potential predictability of extreme dry spells after onset and before cessation of monsoonal rain based on global patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies.     

Seasonal forecasts in the Sahel region: the use of rainfall-based predictive variables

In the Sahel region, seasonal predictions are crucial to alleviate the impacts of climate variability on populations' livelihoods. Agricultural planning (e.g., decisions about sowing date, fertilizer application date, and choice of crop or cultivar) is based on empirical predictive indices whose accuracy to date has not been scientifically proven. This paper attempts to statistically test whether the pattern of rainfall distribution over the May–July period contributes to predicting the real onset date and the nature (wet or dry) of the rainy season, as farmers believe. To that end, we considered historical records of daily rainfall from 51 stations spanning the period 1920–2008 and the different agro-climatic zones in Burkina Faso. We performed (1) principal component analysis to identify climatic zones, based on the patterns of intra-seasonal rainfall, (2) and linear discriminant analysis to find the best rainfall-based variables to distinguish between real and false onset dates of the rainy season, and between wet and dry seasons in each climatic zone. A total of nine climatic zones were identified in each of which, based on rainfall records from May to July, we derived linear discriminant functions to correctly predict the nature of a potential onset date of the rainy season (real or false) and that of the rainy season (dry or wet) in at least three cases out of five. These functions should contribute to alleviating the negative impacts of climate variability in the different climatic zones of Burkina Faso.     

Long-term rainfall characteristics in the Mzingwane catchment of south-western Zimbabwe

Rainfall characteristics during the annual rainy season are explored for the Mzingwane catchment of south-western Zimbabwe, for both historic period (1886–1906) and more recent times (1950–2015), based on available daily and monthly precipitation series. Annual and seasonal rainfall trends are determined using the modified Mann-Kendall test, magnitude of trends test and Sen’s slope estimator. Rainfall variability is quantified using the coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index (PCI) and standard precipitation index (SPI). Results suggest that contemporary mean annual rainfall may not have changed from that measured during the historic period of 1886–1906. However, the number of rainy days (≥ 1 mm) has decreased by 34%, thus suggesting much more concentrated and increased rainfall intensity. A notable shift in both the onset and cessation dates of the rainy season is recorded, particularly during the twenty-first century, which has resulted in a significantly reduced (p < 0.05) length of the rainy season. The combination of a reduced number of rainy days (≥ 1 mm) and a shortened rainy season suggests that long intra-season dry spells have become more common through time and have considerable negative consequences for agriculture and wetland ecosystem in the region. In addition, high spatio-temporal rainfall variability and seasonal PCI values indicate strong seasonality in the rainy season. Based on the SPI results, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences rainfall variability. The results further suggest high uncertainty in rain season characteristics, which requires effective planning for water needs.     

Identification of historic shifts in daily rainfall regime,Wenchi, Ghana

The characteristics of rainfall regime and its variability in the sub-humid region of mid-Ghana is analyzed using daily rainfall data from the Wenchi, 1950–2000. Prior research in the area, suggests that climatic variability occurs at lower frequencies than the typical ENSO signal and may be more closely related to noted shifts in global climatic patterns. Fifty-six possible starting dates encompassing the traditional growing season, extending from late January to early November, at 5 day increments, are used to define temporal units of varying lengths, variable temporal units (VTUs). Rainfall characteristics in each unit are described by two variables: total rainfall and number of rainy days. Given the widely noted global climatic shift in the 1970s and the results of regional analyses, the 50 year record is sub-divided into two 20 year periods, 1950–1969 (period 1) and 1980–2000 (period 2). The means and variances of the two variables in each VTU are compared to identify any times when the changes in rainfall characteristics are most noticeable within the rainfall regime between periods. Both variables yield results consistent with the main rainy season and the long dry season being relatively unchanged, however the short dry spell is becoming wetter and the minor rainy season (September/October) has become significantly drier and shorter. The observations are consistent with the general north–south erosion of the bi-modal regime in West African which is associated with the southward shift of the ITCZ and the monsoonal system. This phenomenon is believed to be ongoing for the last 10,000 years in step with the hypothesized shift of the perihelion into the boreal winter. The use of independent arbitrary starting dates and durations (VTU) advances the understanding of temporal variability of rainfall, at a scale appropriate to agricultural practices in the study area.     

黔东南地区各季节极端干期日数的时空分布特征

利用1961—2009年黔东南地区16个地面气象站的逐日降水资料,分别统计了四季最大连续无雨日数(日降水量<0.1mm)的时间序列,采用正交函数分解、Mann-Kendall突变检验和线性倾向估计等方法,分析了各季节极端干期日数的空间结构和时间演变规律。结果表明,黔东南地区各季节极端干期日数的时空分布存在较大差异,极端干期日数最多出现在秋季,最少是春季;夏季黔东南北部的极端干期日数多,春、秋季南部多,冬季南、北部多,西部四季相对较少,年内非均匀性特征显著。在大尺度天气系统控制下,四季极端干期日数事件的步调基本一致,黔东南中东部发生异常的频次较高,不同季节的天气系统对黔东南各区域的影响具有明显的局地性和阶段性;近49年中各季节出现极端干期日数典型多的年份比典型少的年份多;进入21世纪以后,春、秋、冬季极端干期日数均呈显著的增多趋势,而夏季变化的特征不明显。     

An analysis of onset date and rainy season duration over Zambia

Summary This study investigates the onset and cessation dates of the main summer rainy season over Zambia, their interannual variability, and potential relationships with ENSO and regional circulation anomalies. Focus is placed on onset and cessation dates because these rainy season characteristics are often of more relevance than seasonal rainfall totals to user groups such as farmers, water resource managers, health and tourism officials. It is found that there is substantial interannual variability in these parameters with some indications of a relationship between anomalies in onset date and those in Ni?o3.4 SST, particularly over the northern part of the country. A strong gradient exists between the south and the north in terms of rainfall amount, mean onset date and mean cessation date and all areas of the country experience significant variability. Analysis of circulation anomalies for early (late) onset seasons over northern Zambia shows that they are characterised by anomalous ridging (troughing) over and south of South Africa, a weaker (stronger) Angola heat low and enhanced (reduced) low level moisture flux into eastern Zambia from the Indian Ocean. The connection with ENSO during the onset season of austral spring appears to arise both through changes in the amount of subsidence over southern Africa as well as via the so-called Pacific South America pattern that extends across the South Pacific and South Atlantic towards southern Africa. Authors’ address: S. Hachigonta, C. J. C. Reason, M. Tadross, Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.     

Fluctuations in the onset,termination and length of the growing season in northern Nigeria

Summary A simple water balance method is used to compute the dates of the onset and termination and length of the growing season from long-term rainfall series in northern Nigeria. For most of the stations, the time series of onset and termination dates and growing season length are homogeneous and random, and can be taken as normally distributed. There is a progressive decrease in the length of the growing season from a mean of about 200 days in the south to less than 155 days in the extreme northern part. While there is no statistically significant trend in the onset dates, there is some evidence for statistically significant decreasing trend in the termination dates and the length of the growing season over the region. The results indicate that recent trends in the length of the growing season are more sensitive.to large interannual fluctuations in the start of the rains than to variations in the cessation dates.With 7 Figures     

Seasonal and intra-seasonal rainfall and drought characteristics as indicators of climate change and variability in Southern Africa: a focus on Kabwe and Livingstone in Zambia

This paper addresses two fundamental questions on climate change and variability: to what extent has climate changed and/or varied over years in two districts of different agro-ecological regions or zones and how do any changes differ between the zones or districts? Given the rural-rural migration pattern observed between the districts, understanding climate change risk to rural livelihoods cannot be overemphasised. To assess change and variability, we utilise rainfall data-records over a 36-year period from 1980 to 2016. Results show that there are wide variations and differences within and between the districts. Evidence suggests a general reduction in both annual rainfall and wet days. There is also ground to suggest that the rainy season duration is becoming shorter, given that rainfall onset is increasingly starting late, while cessation is increasingly coming early. Dry spells frequency and duration trends within rainy season show an increase over the period examined. We conclude that local climate in both areas has changed over the period investigated. However, while Livingstone seems to have experienced more droughts and unreliable rainfall, Kabwe experienced a bigger change in both rainfall and rainy season duration. We further conclude that migrants into Kabwe and other inhabitants are not any safer from climate change risk.     

Variations of Meiyu Indicators in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin during 1954-2003

1. IntroductionThe primary physical manifestation of the EastAsian summer monsoon is persistent, heavy precipita-tion identified with a coherent, well-defined rainband.Generally, such rainband movement is characterizedby a stepwise northward advance from southern Chinaand the western North Pacific in early-mid May to theYangtze River valley and southern Japan in mid-June,then to north China and the Yellow Sea as well as thesouthern Japan Sea in late July (Ding, 1992, 1994;Tao and Chen, …     

华北汛期的起讫及其气候学分析

基于对汛期的理解和认识, 利用Samel等人设计的半客观统计分析方法、Mann-Kendall突变分析、滑动t检验等方法, 通过分析和研究1957—2006年华北台站的日降水资料, 确定了华北汛期起讫的日期。结果表明:华北汛期始于6月30日, 止于8月18日, 持续期为50d。华北汛期的起讫日期、持续天数以及空汛发生的频次, 具有鲜明的地域特征:冀北山地汛期开始最早, 结束较迟, 持续天数较长, 空汛发生频次最少; 黄土高原汛期开始较迟, 其北部汛期结束最迟, 持续期也最长, 发生空汛的频次也比较多; 黄河下游地区汛期开始比较早, 结束最早, 汛期最短, 发生无大汛的频次较大; 河北平原地区, 汛期开始最迟, 结束较迟, 汛期较长, 发生无大汛的频次最多。与华北汛期开始和结束日相对应的东亚大气环流特征是:当西太平洋西部上空500hPa存在正的位势高度距平, 华北上空存在负的位势高度距平, 同时地面为“东高西低”的异常海平面气压场配置时, 异常偏南风到达30°N, 华北汛期开始; 当华北上空500hPa为较小的位势高度正距平, 日本海为位势高度正距平, 而地面上, 我国大陆和西太平洋之间为“西高东低”的异常海平面气压场配置时, 异常偏北风控制我国东部地区, 华北汛期结束。     

Dry spell,onset and cessation of the wet season rainfall in the Upper Baro-Akobo Basin,Ethiopia

In this study, maximum dry spell length and number of dry spell periods of rainy seasons in the upper Baro-Akobo River basin which is a part of the Nile basin, Western Ethiopia, were investigated to analyse the drought trend. Daily rainfall records of the period 1972–2000 from eight rain gauge stations were used in the analysis, and Mann-Kendall test was used to test trends for significance. Furthermore, the beginning and end of the trend development in the dry spell were also tested using the sequential version of Mann-Kendall test. Results have shown that there is neither clear monotonic trend found in dry spell for the basin nor significant fluctuation in the onset, cession and duration of rainfall in the Baro-Akobo river basin. This sufficiently explains why rain-fed agriculture has suffered little in the western part of Ethiopia. The predictable nature of dry spell pattern may have allowed farmers to adjust to rainfall variability in the basin. Unlike many parts of Ethiopia, the Baro-Akobo basin climate variability is not a limiting factor for rain-fed agriculture productivity which may contribute significantly to national food security.     

Dry spells in the River Plata Basin: an approximation of the diagnosis of droughts using daily data

This study addresses the dry spells observed in the La Plata Basin using daily data from 94 observation stations during sampling periods from 1900 to 2005. Dry days were defined as having less than 0.3?mm of accumulated precipitation. This definition allowed for the assessment of the dryness in the La Plata Basin and a comparison with other regions. The main purpose of this study was to analyse dry spells, especially extreme cases (meteorological droughts), and assess them on a daily basis. Trends and low frequency of droughts were analysed using a general framework to detect and compare properties of dry states based on daily and annual time scales. The trends were estimated using two different methods. Overall, the trends showed a decrease, especially in the eastern basin region during the period of 1972?C1996. The results showed sporadic decreases in dry events and events of extreme dryness (droughts). Spectral structure permits an inference of low-frequency maxima and confirmed an inter-annual 2- to 3-year period of variability in drought occurrence for most of the basin. Furthermore, probabilistic distribution functions of dry spells at basin stations were analysed to confirm that they followed a geometric?Cbinomial distribution. Additional tests were used to determine whether there was a second threshold, using the Weibull and gamma adjustment models. In order to study spatial homogeneity, the field of dry spell maxima in the basin was generated using a vector array based on the occurrence date and length of the maximum spell. Due to the dependence of spell length on the annual cycle, the longest spells were observed from April to the beginning of winter in the Argentine northwest region and in the northern and western regions of the basin. The intensity of droughts decreased in the Pampas and Mesopotamia regions. The drought of 1988 was considered to be the longest dry spell in the basin. The water deficits from this drought resulted in Argentinean economic losses of more than four billion US dollars during 1988.     

Climate change and implications for agriculture in Niger

Five-year moving averages of annual rainfall for 21 locations in Niger showed a decline in the annual rainfall after 1960. Correlation coefficients of the moving averages of monthly rainfall with annual rainfall showed significant correlations between the decline in the annual rainfall with decreased rainfall in August. Analysis of daily rainfall data for rainy season parameters of interest to agriculture suggested that from 1965 there was a significant decrease in the amount of rainfall and in the number of rainy days in the months of July and August, resulting in a decreased volume of rainfall for each rainstorm. In comparison to the period 1945–64, major shifts have occurred in the average dates of onset and ending of rains during 1965–88. The length of the growing season was reduced by 5–20 days across different locations in Niger. The standard deviation for the onset and ending of the rains as well as the length of the growing season has increased, implying that cropping has become more risky. Water balance calculations also demonstrated that the probability of rainfall exceeding potential evapotranspiration decreased during the growing season. The implications of these changes for agriculture in Niger are discussed using field data.     

近50年广东省分级降水的时空分布特征及其变化趋势的研究

利用广东省86个常规气象观测站1961—2010年的逐日降水资料,分析近50年广东省降水气候特征,探讨不同等级降水空间分布及随时间变化特征。结果表明:广东省降水丰沛,年均降水量多为1 500~2 000 mm;降水气候特征的区域差异较大,不同区域降水量与降水日数分布差异显著;各月的降水日数差异没有降水量月分布的差异明显,非汛期的日降水量较小,而汛期降水日数多且日降水量大;小雨日和中雨日的区域差异小,大雨日、暴雨日、大暴雨日的大值中心主要集中在广东省的三大暴雨中心地区 (清远中心、阳江中心、海陆丰中心),雨日量级分布大致由北向南逐渐增强,且随着降水等级的增加降雨日数迅速减少;小雨、中雨和大雨的降水贡献率均由粤北地区向沿海地区递减,暴雨和大暴雨的贡献率由粤北向沿海递增;小雨日数显著减少、大雨以上日数略有增多,总降水日数也呈减少趋势;小雨和中雨的贡献率呈减少趋势,大雨以上贡献率增多,使年均降水量呈增多趋势。      

Determining rainy season onset and retreat over Nigeria from precipitation amount and number of rainy days

Summary This study assesses the relative efficiency of the use of rainfall amount and rainy days in the determination of rainfall onset and retreat dates in Nigeria based on rainfall data for the period 1961 to 2000. Daily rainfall data were sourced from the archives of the Nigerian Meteorological Services, Oshodi Lagos. The specific locations for which data were collected are: Ibadan, Ilorin, Kaduna and Kano. The method of percentage cumulative mean rainfall values was employed in the determination of the rainfall onset and retreat dates. The results obtained show that both rainfall amount and rainy days are equally effective in the determination of the mean rainfall onset and retreat dates in Nigeria. With regards to the rainfall onset and retreat dates of the individual years however, the method based on the rainy days is more effective than that based on rainfall amount, as the former yielded more realistic dates than the latter. It is thus recommended that studies investigating rainfall onset and retreat dates within a series of individual years in Nigeria, should be based on rainy days rather than rainfall amount.     

华南前汛期起止日期的确定及降水年际变化特征分析

利用国家气候中心提供的华南地区74测站1957—2001年的逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对华南前汛期雨季开始期与结束期的定义标准作了改进;研究了华南前汛期降水雨量、雨日的年际变化特征以及变化趋势的空间分布特征;用小波分析法分析华南前汛期降水的周期分布特征。分析结果发现：45年来前汛期开始期总体上呈现偏早趋势,而结束期具有偏晚的趋势,两者的年际变化十分显著;45年来华南全区总雨量、雨日呈正趋势变化,且两者的空间分布特征非常相似。华南前汛期内雨量、雨日总体上呈现增长趋势并且具有明显的年际变化特征,存在准2年、3～5年、6～8年的振荡周期。     

Rainfall uncertainty in the Mediterranean: time series, uncertainty, and extreme events

Temporal precipitation irregularities, extreme rainfall, or droughts represent great climate concerns and have major impacts on the natural environment. The present study focuses on 41 stations spread over the entire Mediterranean region. The datasets contain daily rainfall totals, with a median length of 56?years within the period of 1931?C2006. The study aims at detecting significant trends in the time series and the uncertainties of four parameters: annual rainfall total, number of rain spells, the rain-spells yields, and rainy season length. In addition, it aims to detect significant temporal changes in the occurrence of extreme events of these parameters. Several methodologies have been used in this study, and the main conclusion is that despite the general assumption of tremendous changes in the rainfall regime, no significant temporal trends or uncertainty trends were found in most of the stations, neither in their annual totals, their number of rain spells, and their rain-spell yields, nor in their rainy season length. However, in the few cases that a significant trend was detected, former years tended to be wetter, longer, and with more abundant rain spells, while the opposite is seen in the later years; and uncertainty, tends to increase more than to decrease.     

近52年广东开汛期特征及与前汛期降水的关系分析

利用广东省86个气象台站近52年(1962—2013年)逐日降水量资料,统计了逐年各台站及全省开汛期(rain season onset date/RSOD),并对广东省开汛特征及其与前汛期降水的关系进行了分析。分析结果表明:(1)广东省开汛期多集中在3月下旬至4月中旬,最早和最迟开汛期相差94 d;(2)广东省东南大部、北部大部较中部大部和西南部开汛早,雷州半岛开汛最迟;(3)广东省开汛可分为突发型开汛和渐进型开汛两种类型;(4)广东省开汛期年(代)际变化特征明显,存在15～16 a的年代际振荡周期,1986年为年代振荡周期变化的转折点,前后分别存在8 a和5～6 a的年代振荡周期;(5)各台站开汛期与3月下旬及4月降水相关性最好,与5、6月及前汛期降水的相关性差;(6)广东开汛异常偏早(晚)年,其前冬500 hPa高度场存在明显差异。