Response of the Baltic Sea to climate change—theory and observations

The dynamics controlling the response of the Baltic Sea to changed atmospheric and hydrologic forcing are reviewed and demonstrated using simple models. The response time for salt is 30 times longer than for heat in the Baltic Sea. In the course of a year, the Baltic Sea renews most of its heat but only about 3% of its salt. On the seasonal scale, surface temperature and ice-coverage are controlled by the atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea as demonstrated by e.g. the strong inter-annual variations in winter temperature and ice-coverage due to variations in dominating wind directions causing alternating mild and cold winters. The response of surface temperature and ice-coverage in the Baltic Sea to modest climate change may therefore be predicted using existing statistics. Due to the long response time in combination with complicated dynamics, the response of the salinity of the Baltic Sea cannot be predicted using existing statistics but has to be computed from mechanistic models. Salinity changes primarily through changes in the two major forcing factors: the supply of freshwater and the low-frequency sea level fluctuations in the Kattegat. The sensitivity of Baltic Sea salinity to changed freshwater supply is investigated using a simple mechanistic steady-state model that includes baroclinic geostrophic outflow from the Kattegat, the major dynamical factor controlling the freshwater content in the Kattegat and thereby the salinity of water flowing into the Baltic Sea. The computed sensitivity of Baltic Sea surface salinity to changes of freshwater supply is similar to earlier published estimates from time-dependent dynamical models with higher resolution. According to the model, the Baltic Sea would become fresh at a mean freshwater supply of about 60 000 m³ s⁻¹, i.e. a 300% increase of the contemporary supply. If the freshwater supply in the different basins increased in proportion to the present-day supply, the Bothnian Bay would become fresh already at a freshwater supply of about 37 000 m³ s⁻¹ and the Bothnian Sea at a supply of about 45 000 m³ s⁻¹. The assumption of baroclinic geostrophic outflow from the Kattegat, crucial for the salinity response of the Baltic Sea to changed freshwater supply, is validated using daily salinity profiles for the period 1931–1977 from lightship Läsö Nord.     

Transfer-function modelling between environmental variation and mesozooplankton in the Baltic Sea

Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r² > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.     

Variance estimate and taxonomic resolution: An analysis of macrobenthic spatial patterns at different scales in a Western Mediterranean coastal lagoon

The effects of taxonomic resolution on the variance estimates of macrobenthic assemblages were studied at four spatial scales in a Mediterranean coastal lagoon. The assemblages exhibited significant differences at all the investigated scales; however, spatial variability was mainly associated with the smallest and the largest scales. The decrease of taxonomic resolution (from species to family) was not related to a decrease of the overall variability and similar estimates of variance components were obtained using species and family resolution levels. The ordination models derived from species and family abundances were very similar both in terms of location and dispersion effect, while further aggregation to the class level began to alter the observed spatial patterns. In future studies aimed at assessing changes in the lagoon, resources derived from the cost reductions achieved using family level could be employed to plan more frequent surveys and/or to adopt complex spatial sampling designs with a high number of replicates.     

Effects of water exchange and vegetation on the macroinvertebrate fauna composition of shallow land-uplift bays in the Baltic Sea

Shallow bays with soft sediment bottoms are common habitats along the Swedish and Finnish Baltic Sea coastline. These bays undergo a process of geomorphometric evolution with the natural isostatic land-uplift process, whereby open bays and sounds decrease in depth and are gradually isolated from the sea, forming bays with narrow openings. This study tested the relationship between the morphometric isolation of the bays from the sea and the macroinvertebrate fauna community of these bays. Additionally, we tested the specific role of the submerged vegetation as an indicator of the macroinvertebrate fauna community. We chose two environmental factors for the analyses, water exchange of the bays and the taxon richness of the macroflora in the bays. We found a hierarchical relationship between water exchange, flora taxon richness, and fauna biomass and taxon richness using structural equation modelling: decreased biomass and taxon richness of fauna were related to decreased flora taxon richness, which in turn was related to decreased water exchange. Using multivariate redundancy analysis, the two environmental factors included in the model were found to explain 47.7% of the variation in the fauna taxon composition and 57.5% of the variation in the functional feeding groups of the fauna. Along the morphometric isolation gradient of the bays, the fauna assemblages changed from a community dominated by gastropods, bivalves, and crustaceans, to a community mainly consisting of a few insect taxa. Moreover, the proportion of predators, gathering collectors, and shredders increased while that of filtering collectors and scrapers decreased. Our results indicate that the density and taxon richness of macroinvertebrate fauna are higher in less morphometrically isolated bays than in more isolated bays in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, we suggest that the taxon richness of macroflora can serve as an indicator of the fauna community.     

Detecting environmental change in estuaries: Nutrient and heavy metal distributions in sediment cores in estuaries from the Gulf of Finland,Baltic Sea

Historical sediment nutrient concentrations and heavy metal distributions were studied in four estuaries in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea to examine the response of these estuaries to temporal changes in human activities. Cores were collected using a 1-m Mackereth corer and dated using ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs. The cores were analyzed for total carbon (TC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), organic phosphorus (OP), inorganic phosphorus (IP), biogenic silica (BSi), loss-on-ignition (LOI), Cu, Zn, Al, Fe, Mn, K, Ca, Mg and Na. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to summarize the trends in the chemical variables and to compare the trends at the different sites. Applying the 1986 ¹³⁷Cs date as a reference point, ²¹⁰Pb chronologies were constructed for the sites using either the CRS model or a composite model (using both CIC and CRS). Significant increases were observed in sedimentation rates, TP and TN concentrations in all of the cores. Copper showed clear increases from 1850 towards present at all sites. Furthermore, redundancy analysis (RDA) was used to correlate environmental variables (catchment land use, catchment size, estuary surface area, depth and lake percentage) to sediment geochemistry. Based on redundancy analysis (RDA), the percentage of agriculture in the catchment was the most important factor affecting the sediment accumulation rate. Urban land-use types and industry correlate well with sediment Cu and Ca concentrations. Forest areas were related to high sediment BSi concentrations. Catchment land use was the most significant factor affecting sediment geochemical composition and sediment accumulation rates in these coastal embayments. Our results demonstrate that the coastal estuaries of the Gulf of Finland respond to the increased nutrient loading with the increased sedimentation and nutrient accumulation rates.     

Seasonal cycles and long-term trends of plankton in shelf and oceanic habitats of the Norwegian Sea in relation to environmental variables

The plankton abundance data of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) route from Bergen or Rotterdam to Weather Station Mike (6444^′N, 2E) from 1949 to 1981 were analysed for long-term trends and seasonal production cycles, and were related to environmental data. The data were explored using the canonical correlation analysis and nonparametric techniques like the Nadaraya–Watson regression. While large copepods such as Calanus spp. and Metridia lucens did not show any temporal trends, a sharp decrease in the abundances of smaller copepods and phytoplankton was observed after 1960. The temporal trends were not related to the NAO, but did show a correlation with the wind direction. Seasonal abundance curves showed that production of both phytoplankton and zooplankton taxa started earlier in coastal water compared to Atlantic water. From the 1950s to the 1970s most taxa showed a delay in the start of the seasonal production cycles, indicating a reduction in the length of the productive cycle. This may to some extent explain the reduced abundance of smaller copepods, phytoplankton and other species during the 1960s and 1970s.     

Spatial macrozoobenthic distribution patterns in relation to major environmental factors- A case study from the Pomeranian Bay (southern Baltic Sea)

The aim of this study was to identify potential environmental “key factors” causing spatial distributions of macrozoobenthic communities to improve our understanding concerning benthic biotic/abiotic interactions and ecosystem functioning. To this end benthic and environmental data, collected over a period of 4 years (2003–2006) at 191 sampling stations in the Pomeranian Bay (southwest Baltic Sea), were analysed. This represents the most comprehensive study performed in this respect in the Baltic Sea up to date and also the necessary first step towards a model able to predict macrofaunal distributions regarding autecological species-environment interactions. Based on species abundances, distinctive macrobenthic community patterns were identified and evaluated via univariate correlation methods, multivariate numerical classification and ordination techniques (e.g. PCA, CCA). These patterns were caused by clear responses of several benthic species to certain prevailing environmental conditions. The observed distribution of selected species followed a strong gradient of depth and was explained best by the sediment parameters total organic carbon (TOC), median grain size and sorting. By using different statistical methods these abiotic/biotic interactions were modelled allowing to extend our knowledge concerning ecosystem functioning, and provide a tool to assess natural and anthropogenic forced changes in species distribution.     

Short-term temporal dynamics of algal species in a subtidal kelp bed in relation to changes in environmental conditions and canopy biomass

Understanding temporal variation at the scale of weeks to months is critical to understanding broad temporal patterns in diversity in the same way as understanding diversity across landscapes relies on understanding variation at the scale of meters. However, whereas small-scale spatial variation in temperate reef algal assemblages has been extensively studied, fine-scale temporal changes have not been well addressed. By sampling the macroalgae of a subtidal reef near Perth (Australia), dominated by the small kelp Ecklonia radiata, every ∼40 days over a 2-year period, we were able to test whether temporal changes in species richness, assemblage structure and species turn-over were related to seasonal changes in surface temperature, solar radiation and wave height. A total of 93 macroalgal taxa were identified, and species richness per sampling time ranged from 25 to 64 taxa 1.25 m⁻². Biomass of E. radiata was positively correlated with changes in sea surface temperature and light, and negatively correlated with wave height. Species richness, assemblage structure and turn-over of other macroalgae were more associated with seasonal changes in kelp biomass than environmental variables per se. We conclude that seasonal changes in environmental conditions drive changes in the kelp canopy, which in turn drive changes in species richness and assemblage structure. This suggests that habitat-formers such as kelps can exert a strong temporal influence on associated communities, analogous to well-described spatial influences. Thus, as kelp canopy biomass expands and retracts over time-scales of weeks to months, so does available space for colonization and growth, resulting in a high species turn-over. Species richness is therefore increased and maintained through time, in the same way as canopy-gap mosaics increase and maintain species richness across spatial landscapes.     

Vulnerability to impacts of climate change on marine fisheries and food security

Assessment of fisheries vulnerability to climate change is an important step for enhancing the understanding and decision-making to reduce such vulnerability. This study aimed to provide an analysis of country level vulnerability focusing on food security implications of climatic disturbances on marine fisheries. The comparative magnitude and distribution of potential food security impacts of climatic disturbances on marine fisheries were assessed for 109 countries by scoring and ranking countries against a set of vulnerability criteria including metrics of national exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, highlighting the contribution of marine fisheries to national food and nutrition security. Results showed that developing countries in Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Latin America appeared to be most vulnerable, and the key sources of vulnerability differed considerably among the countries. For countries most vulnerable to climate-induced effects on marine fisheries, more than two-thirds of them depended on domestic marine fisheries as a main source of fish supply. Developing appropriate adaptation policies and management plans to reduce the impacts of changing climate is of great importance to sustain food security in these highly vulnerable and heavy marine fisheries-dependent countries.     

Preparedness of key coastal and marine sectors in Ireland to adapt to climate change

Preparedness to adapt to the impacts of climate change was assessed for three important sectors of activity within the Irish coastal and marine environment, namely tourism, fisheries, and conservation of biodiversity. Information on the current status of each sector is a valuable point of reference in terms of accessing contribution to the implementation of future national adaptation efforts. A modified version of the National Adaptive Capacity (NAC) framework developed by the World Resources Institute was used to assess the three sectors of activity. This framework is structured around five functions: assessment, prioritisation, coordination, information management, and climate risk reduction; results of the assessment suggest that all three sectors are at the nascent stages of the climate change adaptation process. Currently there is no dedicated national policy guidance or legal support mechanism on adaptation in Ireland; hence there is no national financial commitment to support implementation of adaptation actions for any of the sectors assessed. Subjecting these three selected sectors of activity to such an assessment enables identification of existing actions that can potentially support current adaptation, as well as where issues such as knowledge gaps and lack of policy support hinder progress.     

Limits and barriers to adaptation to climate variability and change in Bangladeshi coastal fishing communities

Limits and barriers to adaptation restrict people’s ability to address the negative impacts of climate change or manage risks in a way that maximises their wellbeing. There is a lack of evidence of this on small-scale fishing communities in developing countries. This study identifies and characterises limits and barriers to adaptation of fishing activities to cyclones and examines interactions between them in two fishing communities in Bangladesh, using household questionnaires, oral history interviews, vulnerability matrices and focus group discussions. The limits include physical characteristics of climate and sea like higher frequency and duration of cyclones, and hidden sandbars. Barriers include technologically poor boats, inaccurate weather forecast, poor radio signal, lack of access to credit, low incomes, underestimation of cyclone occurrence, coercion of fishermen by the boat owners and captains, lack of education, skills and livelihood alternatives, unfavourable credit schemes, lack of enforcement of fishing regulations and maritime laws, and lack of access to fish markets. These local and wider scale factors interact in complex ways and constrain completion of fishing trips, coping with cyclones at sea, safe return of boats from sea, timely responses to cyclones and livelihood diversification. The findings indicate a need for further detailed research into the determinants and implications of such limits and barriers, in order to move towards an improved characterisation of adaptation and to identify most suitable means to overcome the limits and barriers.     

Black-legged kittiwakes as indicators of environmental change in the North Sea: Evidence from long-term studies

Top predators, particularly seabirds, have repeatedly been suggested as indicators of marine ecosystem status. One region currently under pressure from human fisheries and climate change is the North Sea. Standardized seabird monitoring data have been collected on the Isle of May, an important seabird colony in the northwestern North Sea, over the last 10-20 years. Over this period oceanographic conditions have varied markedly, and between 1990 and 1999 a major industrial fishery for sandlance (Ammodytes marinus), the main prey of most seabird species, was prosecuted nearby. Sandlance fishing grounds close to seabird colonies down the east coast of the UK were closed in 2000 in an attempt to improve foraging opportunities for breeding seabirds, particularly black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Initially this closure seemed to be beneficial for kittiwakes with breeding success recovering to pre-fishery levels. However, despite the ban continuing, kittiwakes and many other seabird species in the North Sea suffered severe breeding failures in 2004. In this paper, we test the predictive power of four previously established correlations between kittiwake breeding success and climatic/trophic variables to explain the observed breeding success at the Isle of May in 2004. During the breeding season, kittiwakes at this colony switch from feeding on 1+ group to 0 group sandlance, and results up until 2003 indicated that availability of both age classes had a positive effect on kittiwake breeding success. The low breeding success of kittiwakes in 2004 was consistent with the late appearance and small body size of 0 group sandlance, but at odds with the two variables likely to operate via 1 group availability (lagged winter sea surface temperature and larval sandlance cohort strength in 2003). The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown, but analysis of 1 group sandlance body composition indicated that lipid content in 2004 was extremely low, and thus fish eaten by kittiwakes during pre-breeding and early incubation were likely to be of poor quality. Monitoring of reproductive success of kittiwakes, although useful, was clearly not sufficient to tease apart the complex causation underlying the 2004 event. Monitoring programs such as this, therefore, need to be complemented by detailed research to identify the mechanisms involved, and to attribute and predict the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change.     

Decadal variability of the shallow Pacific meridional overturning circulation: Relation to tropical sea surface temperatures in observations and climate change models

In this study, we use existing observational datasets to evaluate 20th century climate simulations of the tropical Pacific. The emphasis of our work is decadal variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation, which links the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean. In observations, this circulation is characterized by equatorward geostrophic volume transport convergence in the interior ocean pycnocline across 9°N and 9°S. Historical hydrographic data indicate that there has been a decreasing trend in this convergence over the period 1953–2001 of about 11 Sverdrup (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹), with maximum decade-to-decade variations of 7–11 Sv. The transport time series is highly anti-correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, implying that variations in meridional overturning circulation are directly linked to decadal variability and trends in tropical SST. These relationships are explored in 18 model simulations of 20th century climate from 14 state-of-the-art coupled climate models. Significant correlation exists between meridional volume transport convergence and tropical SST in the majority of the models over the last half century. However, the magnitude of transport variability on decadal time scales in the models is underestimated while at the same time modeled SST variations are more sensitive to that transport variability than in the observations. The effects of the meridional overturning circulation on SST trends in most the models is less clear. Most models show no trend in meridional transport convergence and underestimate the trend in eastern tropical Pacific SST. The eddy permitting MIROCH model is the only model that reasonably reproduces the observed trends in transport convergence, tropical Pacific SST, and SST gradient along the equator over the last half century. If the observed trends and those simulated in the MIROCH model are ultimately related to greenhouse gas forcing, these results suggest that the Bjerknes feedback, by affecting pycnocline transport convergences, may enhance warming that arises from anthropogenic forcing in the eastern tropical Pacific.     

Non-stationary extreme value models to account for trends and shifts in the extreme wave climate due to climate change

The extreme values of wave climate data are of great interest in a number of different ocean engineering applications, including the design and operation of ships and offshore structures, marine energy generation, aquaculture and coastal installations. Typically, the return values of certain met-ocean parameters such as significant wave height are of particular importance. There exist many methods for estimating such return values, including the initial distribution approach, the block maxima approach and the peaks-over threshold approach. In a climate change perspective, projections of such return values to a future climate are of great importance for risk management and adaptation purposes. However, many approaches to extreme value modelling assume stationary conditions and it is not straightforward how to include non-stationarity of the extremes due to for example climate change. In this paper, various non-stationary GEV-models for significant wave height are developed that account for trends and shifts in the extreme wave climate due to climate change. These models are fitted to block maxima in a particular set of wave data obtained for a historical control period and two future projections for a future period corresponding to different emission scenarios. These models are used to investigate whether there are trends in the data within each period that influence the extreme value analysis and need to be taken into account. Moreover, it will be investigated whether there are significant inter-period shifts or trends in the extreme wave climate from the historical period to the future periods. The results from this study suggest that the intra-period trends are not statistically significant and that it might be reasonable to ignore these in extreme value analyses within each period. However, when it comes to comparing the different data sets, i.e. the historical period and the future projections, statistical significant inter-period changes are detected. Hence, the accumulated effect of a climatic trend may not be negligible over longer time periods. Interestingly enough, such statistically significant shifts are not detected if stationary extreme value models are fitted to each period separately. Therefore, the non-stationary extreme value models with inter-period shifts in the parameters are proposed as an alternative for extreme value modelling in a climate change perspective, in situations where historical data and future projections are available.     

Optimising fisheries management in relation to tuna catches in the western central Pacific Ocean: A review of research priorities and opportunities

Some of the most important development goals for the countries and territories of the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) involve the sustainable management of their fisheries in light of environmental, economic and social uncertainties. The responses of fish populations to variability in the marine environment have implications for decision making processes associated with resource management. There is still considerable uncertainty in estimating the responses of tuna populations to short-to-medium-term variability and longer-term change in the oceanic environment. A workshop was organised to examine how advances in oceanography, fisheries science and fisheries economics could be applied to the tuna fisheries of the WCPO and in doing so identify research priorities to improve understanding relevant to progressing management. Research priorities identified included: (i) improved parameterisation of end to end ecosystem model components, processes and feedbacks through expanded biological observations and incorporation of higher resolution climate models; (ii) development of seasonal and inter-annual forecasting tools enabling management responses to short-term variability in tuna distributions and abundances; (iii) improved understanding of the population dynamics of and the energy transfer efficiencies between food web components; (iv) assessment of the optimal value of access rights and overall fishery value under multiple scenarios of tuna distribution and abundance and influences on decision making by fisheries managers and fleets and (v) development of management strategy evaluation frameworks for utilisation in the implementing and testing of fishery management procedures and to help prioritise research directions and investment. Issues discussed and research priorities identified during the workshop have synergies with other internationally managed fisheries and therefore are applicable to many other fisheries.     

茅家港滩面沉积物粒度变化及其与水动力的关系

根据野外观测的原始资料，绘出粒度的分布图和不同位置的剖面图，客观地分析了茅家港滩面沉积物粒度空间分布、季节变化、粒度变化与水动力的关系，研究发现：随着离岸向海距离的增加，中值粒径逐渐变小，粒径逐渐变粗。突堤内的中值粒径比突堤外的细。冬季的中值粒径比夏季的粗。随着离岸距离的增加，水动力逐渐增强，导致滩面沉积物的粒径逐渐变粗；突堤内的水动力比突堤外的水动力弱，致使突堤内滩面沉积物的中值粒径比坝外的细：冬季的水动力比夏季的水动力强，致使冬季滩面沉积物中值粒径比夏季粗。     

The sensitivity of long-term yield targets to changes in fishery age-selectivity

Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has been adopted as the primary management goal by several inter-government fishery organisations, and in the United States it forms the cornerstone of federal fishery management policy. MSY became a strategic goal for the management of Europe's fisheries following the resolution of the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002 to restore or maintain fish stocks to MSY levels by 2015. Calculation of MSY requires information on the rate at which biomass increases through growth and reproduction and the rate at which it decreases through natural mortality and fishing. Population-selection, which measures the age-specific rates of fishing mortality, is a key component for the calculation of yield as a function of fishing mortality and MSY, yet selection rarely features in either management advice or sensitivity analyses. Effective management of selection can potentially lead to increases in long-term yield, but before taking action managers need to understand what long-term increases are possible. Using a hypothetical stock, equilibrium yield curves were calculated for three scenarios in which the shape of the population-selection curve varied. The results illustrate the potential extent of variation in MSY and the corresponding fishing mortality required to achieve it (F_MSY) that may result solely due to changes in population selectivity. They show that relatively subtle changes in selection can produce substantial differences in MSY and F_MSY. The results are discussed with specific reference to the development of long-term management targets and the mechanisms by which managers might try to influence population-selection.