2014年三峡秭归M4.5、M4.7震群序列定位及震源区三维P波速度结构研究

采用双差层析成像方法,对2014年3月27日M4.7和3月30日M4.5秭归震群重定位显示:0～5 km深度层P波高速区分布在仙女山断裂北中段和九畹溪断裂北段,天阳坪断裂一带为低速区;8 km深度层高速区分布在九畹溪断裂东侧,仙女山断裂较低;11 km层高速区仅分布在高桥断裂和周家山—牛口断裂之间地带。在地震集中区的下方(即8～12 km处)存在分布较为稳定的低速区,较大地震事件主要分布在高速区或高低速区交界地带,低速区内则很少有地震分布。局部高速体的存在为岩石发生瞬间破裂提供了物质基础,其与低速体间的梯度带是发震构造常发育的区域。研究区内的仙女山断裂北段、九畹溪断裂正是在该梯度带内发育的两条活动断裂。本地震序列的自地表至5 km和5～10 km深度范围内均有大量破裂存在表明,浅层地震仍在水库渗透范围内,而深部地震则与流体渗透无关。此次地震活动同时存在水库诱发地震和构造地震存在。     

The seismicity and tectonic stress field characteristics of the Longmenshan fault zone before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake

The seismicity of Longmenshan fault zone and its vicinities before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake is studied. Based on the digital seismic waveform data observed from regional seismic networks and mobile stations, the focal mechanism solutions are determined. Our analysis results show that the seismicities of Longmenshan fault zone before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake were in stable state. No obvious phenomena of seismic activity intensifying appeared. According to focal mechanism solutions of some small earthquakes before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the direction of principal compressive stress P-axis is WNW-ESE. The two hypocenter fault planes are NE-striking and NW-striking. The plane of NE direction is among N50°?70°E, the dip angles of fault planes are 60°?70° and it is very steep. The faultings of most earthquakes are dominantly characterized by dip-slip reverse and small part of faultings present strike-slip. The azimuths of principal compressive stress, the strikes of source fault planes and the dislocation types calculated from some small earthquakes before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake are in accordance with that of the main shock. The average stress field of micro-rupture along the Longmenshan fault zone before the great earthquake is also consistent with that calculated from main shock. Zipingpu dam is located in the east side 20 km from the initial rupture area of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The activity increment of small earthquakes in the Zipingpu dam is in the period of water discharging. The source parameter results of the small earthquakes which occurred near the initial rupture area of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake indicate that the focal depths are 5 to 14 km and the source parameters are identical with that of earthquake.     

祁连山地震带中强地震前热红外异常研究

对祁连山地震带1991—2004年间发生的13次中强地震,采用NOAA卫星热红外遥感资料数据库进行地面温度的时空网格化扫描,获得多年连续的热红外时序,研究地震前后的温度演化过程,提取震前地表温度的异常特征。研究结果表明,有38%的地震在震前出现了热红外异常现象,有的表现为温度降低,有的则表现为温度升高,体现了地震诱发因素的复杂性;温度异常幅度均为2~3℃,异常出现的时间均在2个月内;震级越大,异常越明显,但并非所有6级以上地震都比5~6级地震的热红外异常明显。     

Possible strain events reflected in water levels in wells along San Jacinto fault zone,southern California

Water levels have been monitored in wells along the San Jacinto fault zone since 1977. The three largest earthquakes to occur within 30 km of the segment of the San Jacinto fault zone being monitored with continuous recorders showed magnitudesM of 4.5, 4.8, and 5.5. Two wells in Borrego Valley, 31 to 32 km southeast of theM=5.5 earthquake on 25 February 1980, showed anomalous spikes recording a probable strain event 88 hours before the earthquake. Two other wells 12 km northwest of the epicenter showed no water-level anomalies. No water-level anomalies preceded theM=4.8 earthquake near Anza on 15 June 1982. Anomalous water-level fluctuations occurred in a well near Ocotillo Wells, 13 km northeast of theM=4.5 earthquake on 22 March 1982, 19 to 23 days prior to the earthquake. Similar fluctuations in other wells have not been followed by sizable earthquakes. A simultaneous drop in water level occurred in four wells on 8 September 1982; this possible strain event was not associated with a sizable earthquake. The presumed strain events occur only in wells that show earth tides and may have been the result of creep on strands of the San Jacinto fault zone. Although water-level anomalies have occurred in only one or two wells prior to two out of three moderate (M=4.5–5.5) earthquakes, the simultaneous drop in water level on 8 September 1982 and the spikes in two wells before theM=5.5 earthquake on 25 February 1980 suggest that wells responsive to earth tides may detect strain events.     

2003年大姚和民乐-山丹地震1年尺度预测

介绍了2003年云南大姚Ms6．2,6．1和甘肃民乐-山丹Ms6．1,5．8地震三要素的1年尺度预测情况,讨论了震中附近的地电阻率中短期异常特征。应用岩石加载实验中电阻率变化和DD模式解释了民乐-山丹地震前山丹地电的异常变化过程;大姚地震前同一活动断裂带上相邻台站其异常的相似性、同步性与以往的震例研究吻合;两组地震前电阻率中短期异常的各向异性变化与震源机制解的最大主压应力方位的关系明显,可以判定,这两组强地震附近地区的地电阻率异常与强地震的晚期孕育过程有关。     

Triggered and tectonic driven earthquakes in the Koyna–Warna region,western India

Two strong M?>?5.0 earthquakes within a span of six months occurred in a triggered seismicity environment in the Koyna–Warna region in western India in 2000. The region is experiencing continued seismicity since the last five decades indicating that this region is close to critical stresses and minor perturbations in the stresses due to reservoir loading and unloading can trigger earthquakes. In the present study we applied the technique developed for identification of prognostic anomalies for tectonic earthquakes to the Koyna–Warna catalogue prior to these two earthquakes with an aim to study the process of source preparation for triggered earthquakes. In case of tectonic earthquakes, unstable conditions in a source zone develop gradually leading to a metastable zone which shows variations in certain seismicity parameters known as prognostic anomalies. Our results indicate that the variations in seismicity parameters before the two strong earthquakes in the Koyna region have a pattern of prognostic anomalies typical of tectonic earthquakes. We conclude that initiation of failure in a metastable zone can be caused both, by external impacts, reservoir loading and unloading in our case, and internal processes of avalanche-like failure development.     

运城东郭流体观测井震兆特征及映震灵敏性分析

对东郭流体观测井在山西地震带几次4级以上地震前的异常特征及映震灵敏性进行分析,认为震前多以短临异常为主,异常持续时间具有随震级增大而增加的特点;异常形态水位以突降为主,水温则以突升为主,异常幅度表现为随震级增大而增大、随震中距减小而增大的特点;除汶川地震外,东郭井水位、水温所对应的地震均发生在山西地震带上;东郭流体观测...     

平面应变双轴压缩岩样剪应力异常及破坏过程模拟

利用FLAC,模拟了双轴压缩岩样的破坏过程及剪应力异常.在峰值强度之前及之后,岩石的本构模型分别取为线弹性及莫尔库仑剪破坏与拉破坏复合的应变软化模型.本文仅分析了3个具有较大应力降的周期的剪应力异常及塑性区分布.在第1及第2周期,剪破坏分别发生在试样的两侧及背景空区内部,前兆明显,地震属于断错型.在第3周期,背景空区之外的新剪切破裂带引起断错型地震;空区内部的老破裂带引起走滑型地震,未观测到前兆.在塑性区边缘,剪应力梯度较高.破裂带位置剪应力值反而较低.尽管在应力-应变曲线的软化阶段之前,不同单元的剪应力表现出千姿百态的复杂形态,但尚有规律可循.若几个单元都位于某条破裂带上,则剪应力的变化可能是同步的,或演变规律类似.鉴于原地复发地震类型可能不同,前兆将有差别.     

三马坊水温重复性前兆异常的构造特征

研究发现三马坊水温对应某些构造带上的地震,其前兆异常有相似性和重复性特征.对应北西向张渤构造带上的地震,其前兆异常形态为突降型,对应东西向阴山-燕山构造带上的地震,其前兆异常形态为上升型,表明水温前兆异常的相似性和重复性特征受活动性构造体系所控制.深入研究三马坊水温前兆异常特征与活动构造带间的关系,可能是突破该地区地震短临预报的有效途径.     

基于强震监测记录的冶勒大坝动力反应特性初步分析

冶勒沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝最大坝高为124.5m,坝址区地震烈度高,地质条件复杂。大坝上布设了9台强震仪组成的强震监测台阵,自2005年12月开始投入运行至2014年12月底共获得有效记录57次,其中包括汶川地震、攀枝花地震和芦山地震记录。对典型强震记录进行时域分析和频谱分析,初步总结了冶勒大坝的动力反应特性。研究结果表明,大坝坝顶部位的动力反应主要以放大为主,并且随着底部PGA的减小,坝体放大倍数明显增大;由于地震动本身震源特性、传播途径的差异,大坝在不同地震中动力反应的频谱特性明显不同,但多次记录均显示土石坝体有较为明显的滤波作用。     

南北地震带定点形变前兆异常指标初建

基于《中国震例》及其他相关的内部震例资料、 研究报告及文献资料, 对南北地震带地震前的定点形变异常整体特征进行了研究分析。 结果表明: 异常项数随震级升高而增大, 但不同地震间差异较大。 异常的最长持续时间和最大分布范围随震级增大而增大, 但对于6.0~7.9级地震异常在震区附近出现“围空”现象。 研究区内异常主要以趋势转折和破年变为主, 其次为大幅突变、 大幅波动、 潮汐因子异常。 各类异常的时空特征对地震的震级、 时间和地点具有不同的指示作用。 震前400天至200天的范围内异常数量会出现快速增加现象, 对于6级以上地震还发现在震前200天以内出现异常数量的显著减少现象。 另外, 发现存在一些定点形变异常敏感台站, 可能与区域构造及应力应变积累位置有关。     

Regularities in the time variations of seismic parameters and their implications for prediction of strong earthquakes in Greece

Time variations in the parameters of seismic activity in two regions in Greece, which are known to have different geodynamical conditions, are analyzed using the FastBEE algorithm suggested in (Papadopoulos and Baskoutas, 2009). The study is based on the data on weak earthquakes that occurred in two local regions. One region pertains to the zone dominated by intensive compression stress field, while another is located in the region of a relatively lower intensity extension stress field. It is shown that in the zone of compression the seismic parameters exhibit anomalous temporal behavior before strong earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.7, whereas in the zones of extension, similar anomalies precede earthquakes with lower magnitudes of up to Ms ≥ 4.9. The most informative parameters for the purposes of predicting strong seismic events are the released seismic energy in the form logE ^2/3 and the slope of the frequency-magnitude dependence, b-value. The seismic activity in the region, expressed in terms of the logarithmic number of earthquakes, per unit time in some cases does not exhibit any particular pattern of behavior before strong earthquakes. In the time series of the studied parameters, four stages in the seismic process are clearly distinguished before strong earthquakes. Typically, a strong earthquake has a low probability to occur within the first two stages. Instead, this probability arises at stage III and attains its maximum at the end of this stage coinciding with the occurrence of the strong earthquake. We suggest these features of the time series to be used for the assessment of seismic hazard and for the real-time prediction of strong earthquakes. The time variations in the b-value are found to be correlated with the time variations inlogE ^2/3. This correlation is closely approximated by the power-law function. The parameters of this function depend on the geodynamical features of the region and characterize the intensity and the type of the regional tectonic stresses. The results of our study show that the FastBEE algorithm can be successfully applied for monitoring seismic hazard and predicting strong earthquakes.     

青藏块体东北缘跨断层形变典型震例总结与预测判据指标分析

针对青藏块体东北缘跨断层监测区及周边发生的5.8级以上地震, 结合以往研究结果, 对跨断层资料进行了重新梳理, 重点分析了1995年永登5.8级、 2000年景泰5.9级、 2003年民乐—山丹6.1级和2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震前出现的跨断层形变异常。 结果表明: 这4次典型地震前出现的跨断层异常数量较多, 为13~23项不等; 分布范围较广, 震中距在600 km范围内, 相对集中出现在300 km左右范围内, 也有近震区异常; 异常特征以逆断加速、 趋势转折、 活动加剧、 突跳、 大幅变化等为主; 震前2~3年或稍长时间开始出现异常, 震前半年至1年半时段异常集中出现, 具有中期背景或短期前兆意义, 异常空间分布有向震中区汇聚迁移的特征。     

新疆克孜尔水库诱发地震的形成条件和诱发机制问题初探

克孜尔水库自 1991年 8月下闸蓄水后 ,穿过水库大坝的 F2 活断层 (克孜尔活断层 )出现了水平和垂直形变的特大异常变化。分析后认为是前期水库施工开挖土石方、填筑土石方及水库蓄水引起地面负荷变化的综合效应所致 ,同时地震活动规律也产生了与形变同步的异常变化。综合测震、水文、地质分析认为 :1水库蓄水可以诱发地震 ,震级主要在 MS3.0级以下 ;2蓄水诱发 F1活断层 (却勒塔格活断层 )上中等地震的可能性比较大 ,而诱发 F2 活断层上中等地震的可能性则很小     

Anomaly of the ionospheric electron density close to earthquakes: Case studies of Pu'er and Wenchuan earthquakes

The electron density recorded onboard the DEMETER satellite was analyzed to search for possible anomalies before earthquakes both in space and time. To distinguish pre-earthquake anomalies from the other anomalies related to geomagnetic activity, data were filtered using the K_p index. The analysis is based on the comparison of data recorded closely to earthquakes in space and time and past data for the same area. In analyzing data around the time and location of the Pu’er and Wenchuan earthquakes, obvious anomalies in electron density were found close to the epicenters, and some remarkable disturbances were detected before the earthquakes occurred. The results were finally compared with those of previous works that used the same data but employed different analysis methods. Good agreement was found which suggests that these anomalies have a close relation to the earthquake preparation.     

天山中段2次6级地震前钻孔应变高频异常分析

2014年以来,天山中段分量钻孔应变仪空前增多,这些高采样率的应变观测资料蕴含着丰富的构造信息。如何从高采样率观测资料中提取有效的前兆异常信息,是分析研究人员亟待解决的问题。文章通过对天山中段分量钻孔应变观测数据进行S变换和超限率分析发现,在天山中段2次6级地震前有5套应变资料出现高频信息异常。这些异常均在震前出现,随后达到峰值,临震前或地震后衰减,其中短周期异常信号主要集中在10～720 min频段,且S变换与超限率分析结果具有很好的同步性。结合精河地震震源区及附近的GPS分析结果,发现高频异常信息的分布与该地区地壳运动场具有很好的一致性,进一步验证了高频信息异常的可信度。     

震前卫星红外亮温异常时空演化特征分析

主要利用统计方法建立红外亮温背景场及异常检测模型,来提取2012年华北地区的红外亮温异常信息,并对2012年唐山4.8级地震和宝坻4.0级地震前的异常演化过程进行分析研究。结果表明:背景场方面,红外亮温的多年月背景场具有夏高冬低的年变特征,符合季节变化规律,红外亮温与高程呈负相关关系;基于历年同期亮温偏移指数K值方面,2012年5月28日唐山4.8级地震震前在唐山断裂带以南存在明显强烈的K值异常,在震前8小时达到最大约3.3。6月18日宝坻4.0级地震在震前也存在红外亮温异常现象,但是较弱。     

Activation of rifting processes in the Northern Cis-Baikal region: A case study of the Kichera earthquake sequence of 1999

The paper addresses the spatiotemporal development of the Kichera sequence of earthquakes of 1999 (more than 6000 events over the year) within the Kichera depression, terminating on land in the Northern Baikal basin; the series was the most intense of all earthquake sequences recorded in the Northern Cis-Baikal region (NCBR) since 1960. The spatial coordinates of earthquakes showed that the source rupture, originating in the area of the Kichera-Upper Angara interbasin mountainous isthmus, propagated in the SW direction toward Lake Baikal. Stresses in the sources of the two strongest shocks (Mw = 6.0 and 5.6) of the sequence were released along fault planes striking NE (normal type) and E-W (normal-strike-slip type). Focal mechanisms of aftershocks revealed the presence of differently oriented faults motions on which were controlled by a large rifting fault striking NE. The Kichera earthquakes are shown to have occurred under seismotectonic conditions dominated by NW-SE extension and to have been accompanied by active normal faulting promoting longitudinal growth of the Upper Angara depression and deepening of the Kichera depression. The seismotectonic strain rates calculated for the NCBR before and after 1999 were of the order of (0.1–1.0) × 10^?10 yr^?1, whereas their values were two to three orders larger during 1999. Thus, the Kichera earthquakes confirmed the high seismic potential of the NCBR and showed that this rift segment developed through growth of depressions and destruction of interbasin mountainous isthmuses.     

中国地震预报中地震学异常的统计研究

根据 198 8年以来全国地震趋势会商会 (NMSC)所提出的各类地震学异常资料 ,研究每一年异常与下一年大陆地震的对应关系 .9a内 46种地震学方法所提出的93 2项异常资料表明 :在 1989～ 1993年间 ,用地震学预报地震方法的数量有一个增大过程 ;各种方法所提出的异常对应地震的比率在 0～ 48%之间 ,平均为 2 8%左右 ,这也与我国地震预报中预报区数的成功率相当 ;统计预报、区域应力场增强、地震条带、小震调制比和b值等方法有较高的地震对应率 ,而地震活动异常平静、分数维、异常震群、c值和地震窗等方法要差一些 ;用地震学方法预报地震最成功的年份为1989年 ,最差年份为 1990年 ;与预报区数的成功比率一样 ,其地震的对应比率并未随时间的推移而有所提高 .各种地震学方法的物理内涵及其与地震孕育的内在联系及各种地震学方法间相互关联问题是今后用地震学方法预报地震的研究课题 .     

对日本俯冲带与IBM俯冲带俯冲特征的地球物理研究:来自重力与震源分布数据的启示

日本俯冲带与IBM俯冲带位于太平洋板块、菲律宾海板块和欧亚板块三者的交汇地带,是典型的"俯冲工厂"地区,具有重要的研究意义.本文利用震源分布资料与卫星重力数据对日本俯冲带与IBM俯冲带进行了研究.通过空间重力异常反映了俯冲带地区的区域构造形态,在此基础上基于艾利模式计算了均衡异常以反映地壳均衡特征.利用震源分布资料,分别从垂直俯冲带走向与沿俯冲带走向划定了横截剖面(cross-sections)进行了地震提取,讨论了俯冲带地区的Wadati-Benioff带形态特征,并借助于俯冲带地震等深线图直观描述了俯冲带的俯冲形态.在日本俯冲带与伊豆—小笠原俯冲带各选取了一条典型剖面进行了重力2.5D反演,研究了俯冲带地区的壳幔结构特征.研究结果表明,九州—帕劳海脊与IBM岛弧在均衡异常上存在差异,前者已逐渐趋向于地壳均衡.IBM的Wadati-Benioff带存在明显的南北差异,反映出伊豆—小笠原俯冲板片停留在了660km转换带中,而马里亚纳俯冲板片很可能垂直穿过了这一转换带,造成这种南北差异的原因与板块相对运动、岩石圈黏性和年龄差异以及俯冲板片的重力效应等因素有关.在IBM的中部和南部存在板片撕裂现象.日本俯冲带的俯冲洋壳密度随俯冲深度变化较小,洋幔存在一定程度的蛇纹岩化,地幔楔蛇纹岩化作用不典型,海沟处有一范围较小的含水畸变带;伊豆—小笠原俯冲带俯冲洋壳密度随深度增大而明显增大,洋幔蛇纹岩化程度较日本俯冲带低,地幔楔蛇纹岩化作用强烈,板块交汇处存在明显的蛇纹岩底辟.日本俯冲带与IBM俯冲带一线自北向南板片俯冲变陡,两侧板块耦合度降低,与俯冲带两侧的板块运动速率差异有关.