Pre-monsoon surface pressure and summer monsoon rainfall over India

Summary The relationship between the surface air pressure field during the pre-monsoon months and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is analysed using climate data from 105 stations situated in Eurasia between 0°–60° N and 20°–100° E. Moreover, grid-point data for the whole northern hemisphere are used. Pressure during April over an area around 50° N and 35° E is found to show a significant negative correlation with the subsequent monsoon rainfall. During May the pressure over a large part of the study area south of 40° N shows a significant correlation with its highest value in the heat low region over Pakistan. It is assumed that monitoring of pressure variations over this region may be useful in predicting monsoon rainfall, particularly the rainfall during the first half of the season. Certain limitations of the climate data in this region are also discussed.With 5 Figures     

Changes in ozone trends over the northern hemisphere middle latitudes during the period 1970–1990

Summary Composite time series combining the results of total ozone measurements taken at Dobson stations located within the latitude band 30°N–60°N, in Europe, and North America, have been examined in order to detect any trends. Various regression trend models were used to identify any trend variations over the regions during the period 1970–1990. The results of fitting the models to the data imply that the model which assumes a linear trend provides precise information about the long-term ozone trends (trends during the period 1970–1990). The study identifies short-term summer trends in the 1980s that are evidently more strongly negative than trends that occur in the 1970s (the differences are statistically significant at the 2 level). The year-round loss (in all analyzed regions) and the winter loss in total ozone (the belt 30°N–60°N) N. America, during the 1980s are about 2–3 times higher than the losses during the 1970s (the differences are statistically significant at the 1 level).With 1 Figure     

Thermodynamic structure of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer over the Arabian sea as revealed by MONSOON-77 data

The thermodynamic structure of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) over the Arabian sea region has been studied with the help of 135 aerological observations obtained during MONSOON-77 in the region (10–14° N, 64–68° E) by USSR research vessels. Low-level inversions were observed over the western Arabian sea region (west of 66° E) in association with suppressed convection. The different sublayers of the ABL, viz. the mixed layer, the cloud layer and the inversion/isothermal/stable layer were identified. The low-level stability analysis indicated that in the region east of 66° E, conditions were favourable for deep convection. The thermodynamic transformation of the boundary layer after precipitation was documented.     

Some studies of tropical/equatorial waves over Indian Tropical Middle Atmosphere: Results of tropical wave campaign

Summary During the last phase of the Indian Middle Atmosphere Programme everyday launchings of high altitude balloons were carried out at three locations i.e. Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77.5°E), Hyderabad (17.2°N, 78.3°E) and Bhubaneshwar (21.3°N, 85.5°E) for measuring winds and temperature between 1 and 30 km altitude in a campaign mode from 23 January 1989 to 31 March 1989. The data thus obtained have been examined to determine the characteristics of tropical/equatorial waves. Spectral analysis of the time series (68 points) of both zonal and meridional wind components using Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) reveal the presence of waves with periods between 4–30 days.Strong oscillations centered around 5 days and 18 days seem to dominate in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere at all the three stations. While 5 day wave has an amplitude of about 2 m/s, the 18 day wave has an amplitude between 8–10 m/s in the zonal and 5–6 m/s in meridional component around tropopause. Its amplitude is maximum over Hyderabad and decreases somewhat on either side i.e. over Trivandrum and Bhubaneshwar. Weekly rocket wind data from Balasore near Bhubaneshwar show that 18–20 day wave continues to propagate vertically in the altitude range of 30–60 km. Temperature data also exhibits similar oscillations with amplitude of about 1 K for 4–5 day wave and 2–3 K for 18 day wave maximising just above tropopause ( 18 km).It is found that some of the observed wave modes, particularly the 18 day wave have characteristics matching those of forced Rossby wave rather than Kelvin wave while the 5 day and 9 day waves have characteristics matching those of mixed Rossby-gravity waves. The latter may be generated due to convective forcing in the troposphere while the former may be penetrating from the midlatitudes.With 15 Figures     

Global distribution of natural freshwater wetlands and rice paddies,their net primary productivity,seasonality and possible methane emissions

A global data set on the geographic distribution and seasonality of freshwater wetlands and rice paddies has been compiled, comprising information at a spatial resolution of 2.5° by latitude and 5° by longitude. Global coverage of these wetlands total 5.7×10⁶ km² and 1.3×10⁶ km², respectively. Natural wetlands have been grouped into six categories following common terminology, i.e. bog, fen, swamp, marsh, floodplain, and shallow lake. Net primary productivity (NPP) of natural wetlands is estimated to be in the range of 4–9×10¹⁵ g dry matter per year. Rice paddies have an NPP of about 1.4×10¹⁵ g y^–1. Extrapolation of measured CH₄ emissions in individual ecosystems lead to global methane emission estimates of 40–160 Teragram (1 Tg=10¹² g) from natural wetlands and 60–140 Tg from rice paddies per year. The mean emission of 170–200 Tg may come in about equal proportions from natural wetlands and paddies. Major source regions are located in the subtropics between 20 and 30° N, the tropics between 0 and 10° S, and the temperate-boreal region between 50 and 70° N. Emissions are highly seasonal, maximizing during summer in both hemispheres. The wide range of possible CH₄ emissions shows the large uncertainties associated with the extrapolation of measured flux rates to global scale. More investigations into ecophysiological principals of methane emissions is warranted to arrive at better source estimates.     

Latitudinal variation of air sea fluxes in the western Indian ocean during austral summer and fall

Daily and zonal (latitudinal belt) averages of heat and momentum fluxes were computed using bulk aerodynamic formulae, from the meteorological parameters measured onboard M. S. Thuleland during the sixth Indian scientific expedition to Antarctica (26th November, 1986 to 22nd March, 1987). Both estimates showed significant variations, the momentum flux showing the largest variation. The maximum values of sensible and latent heat fluxes were observed over the 30°–40° S and 10°–20° S zones during the southern summer and fall respectively while the minimum values of latent heat flux were observed in the 60°–70° S zone for both seasons. The sensible heat flux minimum was observed in the 50°°60° S and 60°–70° S zones for summer and fall, respectively. Higher momentum flux values over the 40°–50° S zone in summer shifted to the 50°–60° S zone during fall.     

Meteorological results of MONSOON-88 expedition (pre-monsoon period)

Mean atmospheric circulation, moisture budget and net heat exchange were studied during a pre-monsoon period (18th March to 3rd May, 1988), making use of the data collected on board Akademik Korolev in the central equatorial and southern Arabian Sea region. The net heat exchange (R _n ) is found to be about 20 W m^–2 for a small area (0–4° N; 55–60° E), 50% less than the dimatological value. The mean value of net radiation (140 W m^–2) is less than the climatological value, which was due to higher cloud amount. The higher SST enhanced both the latent and sensible heat fluxes.The mean atmospheric circulation obtained from the upper air data is quite convincing. The mean exchange coefficient (C _e ) estimated from the moisture budget is about 1.0 × 10^–3 for a wind speed of 4 m s^–1. This value is slightly lower than that obtained by the usual methods.National Institute of Oceanography, RC, 52-Kirlampudi layout, Visakhapatnam — 530 023.India Meteorological Department, Gauhati.     

Interannual and interdecadal oscillation patterns in sea level

Relative sea-level height (RSLH) data at 213 tide-gauge stations have been analyzed on a monthly and an annual basis to study interannual and interdecadal oscillations, respectively. The main tools of the study are singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and multi-channel SSA (M-SSA). Very-low-frequency variability of RSLH was filtered by SSA to estimate the linear trend at each station. Global sea-level rise, after postglacial rebound corrections, has been found to equal 1.62±0.38 mm/y, by averaging over 175 stations which have a trend consistent with the neighboring ones. We have identified two dominant time scales of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, quasi-biennial and low-frequency, in the RSLH data at almost all stations. However, the amplitudes of both ENSO signals are higher in the equatorial Pacific and along the west coast of North America. RSLH data were interpolated along ocean coasts by latitudinal intervals of 5 or 10 degrees, depending on station density. Interannual variability was then examined by M-SSA in five regions: eastern Pacific (25°S–55°N at 10° resolution), western Pacific (35°S–45°N at 10°), equatorial Pacific (123°E–169°W, 6 stations), eastern Atlantic (30°S, 0°, and 30°N–70°N at 5°) and western Atlantic (50°S–50°N at 10°). Throughout the Pacific, we have found three dominant spatio-temporal oscillatory patterns, associated with time scales of ENSO variability; their periods are 2, 2.5–3 and 4–6 y. In the eastern Pacific, the biennial mode and the 6-y low-frequency mode propagate poleward. There is a southward propagation of low-frequency modes in the western Pacific RSLH, between 35°N and 5°S, but no clear propagation in the latitudes further south. However, equatorward propagation of the biennial signal is very clear in the Southern Hemisphere. In the equatorial Pacific, both the quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial modes at 10°N propagate westward. Strong and weak El Niño years are evident in the sea-level time series reconstructed from the quasi-biennial and low-frequency modes. Interannual variability with periods of 3 and 4–8 y is detected in the Atlantic RSLH data. In the eastern Atlantic region, we have found slow propagation of both modes northward and southward, away from 40–45°N. Interdecadal oscillations were studied using 81 stations with sufficiently long and continuous records. Most of these have variability at 9–13 and some at 18 y. Two significant eigenmode pairs, corresponding to periods of 11.6 and 12.8 y, are found in the eastern and western Atlantic ocean at latitudes 40°N–70°N and 10°N–50°N, respectively.     

Surface and upper air temperatures over India in relation to monsoon rainfall

Summary The relationship between the all-India summer monsoon rainfall and surface/upper air (850, 700, 500 and 200 mb levels) temperatures over the Indian region and its spatial and temporal characteristics have been examined to obtain a useful predictor for the monsoon rainfall. The data series of all-India and subdivisional summer monsoon rainfall and various seasonal air temperatures at 73 surface observatories and 9 radiosonde stations (1951–1980) have been used in the analysis. The Correlation Coefficients (CCs) between all-India monsoon rainfall and seasonal surface air temperatures with different lags relative to the monsoon season indicate a systematic relationship.The CCs between the monsoon rainfall and surface-air temperature of the preceding MAM (pre-monsoon spring) season are positive over many parts of India and highly significant over central and northwestern regions. The average surface air temperature of six stations i.e., Jodhpur, Ahmedabad, Bombay, Indore, Sagar and Akola in this region (Western Central India, WCI) showed a highly significant CC of 0.60 during the period 1951–1980. This relationship is also found to be consistently significant for the period from 1950 to present, though decreasing in magnitude after 1975. WCI MAM surface air temperature has shown significant CCs with the monsoon rainfall over eleven sub-divisions mainly in northwestern India, i.e., north of 15 °N and west of 80 °E.Upper air temperatures of the MAM season at almost all the stations and all levels considered show positive CCs with the subsequent monsoon rainfall. These correlations are significant at some central and north Indian stations for the lower and middle tropospheric temperatures.The simple regression equation developed for the period 1951–1980 isy = – 183.20 + 8.83x, wherey is the all-India monsoon rainfall in cm andx is the WCI average surface air temperature of MAM season in °C. This equation is significant at 0.1% level. The suitability of this parameter for inclusion in a predictive regression model along with five other global and regional parameters has been discussed. Multiple regression analysis for the long-range prediction of monsoon rainfall, using several combinations of these parameters indicates that the improvement of predictive skill considerably depends upon the selection of the predictors.With 9 Figures     

A survey of anthropogenic vegetation changes in West Africa during the last century — climatic implications

The extent of albedo change resulting from anthropogenic modification of the vegetation cover over the last century has been investigated in West Africa. The climatic implications of these changes are briefly discussed.West Africa spans a suite of vegetation zones ranging latitudinally northward from tropical rainforest to desert scrub, and comprises environmental problems from extremely rapid deforestation of the tropical forests in Ivory Coast or Ghana to desertification in the Sahel.Historical vegetation changes have been digitized on a 1° × 1° grid map based on a literature survey of government censuses, forestry and agricultural reports, supplemented by atlases, and other historical, economic and geographic sources.The principal processes of land cover modification during the last century include clearing of the natural vegetation for agriculture, grazing, logging, and degradation of marginal semi-arid to arid ecosystems by excessive grazing or cultivation. Forestry surveys for West Africa suggest clearance of around 56% of the forest zone; estimated losses for Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Liberia range between 64% and 70%. Estimates of total land conversion range between 88 million ha, from the digitized land use map (Figure 4) to 122.8 million ha, from extrapolation of forestry data (Section 3.1).The change in albedo corresponding to the land use modification is relatively small, using conservative estimates for desertification amounting to an increase of around 0.4% regionally over 100 yr and 0.5% since agriculture began. Thus 4/5 of the total albedo may have occurred within the last century. Additional assumptions regarding desertification and a lower albedo value for tropical forest compensate for each other and do not significantly alter the result of the initial calculation. The maximum zones of increased albedo are concentrated in the forest zone (4°–8° N) and savanna-southern sahel (10°–12°) which correspond to zones of maximum agricultural and population growth. Between 13° N and 17° N, the albedo change is small or negative due to both less intensive land utilization and replacement of scattered vegetation on exposed sandy soil by lower albedo irrigated crops.These estimates may represent a lower limit, particularly if desertification is more extensive than initially assumed. Under an extreme assumption that the entire Sahel zone between 14°–20° N has been desertified, the regional mean albedo could increase by as much as 4%. This represents an upper limit to likely historical anthropogenic disturbances of the land surface.Although historical climate records show three major droughts during the 20th century (1910–1920, 1940's, 1969–1975, possibly continuing into the 1980's; Nicholson, 1980a; Hare, 1983), and stream flow fluctuations which correlate well with precipitation (Faure and Gac, 1981;Palutikof et al., 1981), these records do not appear to indicate a regional secular decrease in precipitation as suggested by several climate models. Evidence for apparent desiccation or desert creep (= desertification) may be attributed, in large part, to adverse changes in soil and stream hydrology caused by anthropogenic disruption of the vegetation cover.     

The solubility and behaviour of acid gases in the marine aerosol

The following Henry's law constants (K _H/mol²kg^-2atm^-1) for HNO₃ and the hydrohalic acids have been evaluated from available partial pressure and other thermodynamic data from 0°–40°C, 1 atm total pressure: HNO ₃ , 40°C–5.85×10⁵; 30°C–1.50×10⁶; 25°C–2.45×10⁶; 20°C–4.04×10⁶; 10°C–1.15×10⁷; 0°C–3.41×10⁷. HF, 40°C–3.2; 30°C–6.6; 25°C–9.61; 20°C–14.0; 10°C–32.0; 0°C–76. HCl, 40°C–4.66×10⁵; 30°C–1.23×10⁶; 25°C–2.04×10⁶; 20°C–3.37×10⁶; 10°C–9.71×10⁶; 0°C–2.95×10⁷. HBr, 40°C–2.5×10⁸; 30°C–7.5×10⁸; 25°C–1.32×10⁹; 20°C–2.37×10⁹; 10°C–8.10×10⁹; 0°C–3.0×10¹⁰. HI, 40°C–5.2×10⁸; 30°C–1.5×10⁹; 25°C–2.5×10⁹; 20°C–4.5×10⁹; 10°C–1.5×10¹⁰; 0°C–5.0×10¹⁰. Simple equilibrium models suggest that HNO₃, CH₃SO₃H and other acids up to 10x less soluble than HCl displace it from marine seasalt aerosols. HF is displaced preferentially to HCl by dissolved acidity at all relative humidities greater than about 80%, and should be entirely depleted in aged marine aerosols.     

Annual mean statistics of the surface fluxes of the tropical Indian Ocean

The computed long-term annual mean and intramonthly variances of air and sea surface temperature, wind stress, effective radiation at the surface, heat gain over the ocean and the total heat loss for the tropical Indian Ocean between 30 °N and 30 °S are presented. These estimates, which are based on about one million weather reports for the period 1948–1972, indicate a mean annual meridional heat transport in agreement with previous estimates in direction though different in magnitude. The annual mean E-P chart shows that the Bay of Bengal region is highly conducive to large-scale convergence.     

Modulation of low frequency intraseasonal oscillations of northern summer monsoon by El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Summary In order to improve our understanding of the interannual variability of the 30–50 day oscillations of the northern summer monsoon, we have performed numerical experiments using a 5-level global spectral model (GSM). By intercomparing the GSM simulations of a control summer experiment (E1) and a warm ENSO experiment (E2) we have examined the sensitivity of the low frequency intraseasonal monsoonal modes to changes in the planetary scale component of the monsoon induced by anomalous heating in the equatorial eastern Pacific during a warm ENSO phase.It is found that the anomalous heating in the equatorial eastern Pacific induces circulation changes which correspond to weakening of the time-mean divergent planetary scale circulation in the equatorial western Pacific, weakening of the east-west Walker cell over the western Pacific ocean, weakening of the time-mean Reverse Hadley circulation (RHC) over the summer monsoon region and strengthening of the time-mean divergent circulation and the subtropical jet stream over the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. These changes in the large scale basic flow induced by the anomalous heat source are found to significantly affect the propagation characteristics of the 30–50 day oscillations. It is noticed that the reduction (increase) in the intensity of the time-mean divergent circulation in the equatorial western (eastern) Pacific sectors produces weaker (stronger) low-level convergence as a result of which the amplitude of the eastward propagating 30–50 day divergent wave decreases (increases) in the western (eastern) Pacific sectors in E2. One of the striking aspects is that the eastward propagating equatorial wave arrives over the Indian longitudes more regularly in the warm ENSO experiment (E2). The GSM simulations reveal several small scale east-west cells in the longitudinal belt between 0–130°E in the E1 experiment. On the other hand the intraseasonal oscillations in E2 show fewer east-west cells having longer zonal scales. The stronger suppression of small scale east-west cells in E2 probably accounts for the greater regularity of the 30–50 day oscillations over the Indian longitudes in this case.The interaction between the monsoon RHC and the equatorial 30–50 day waves leads to excitation of northward propagating modes over the Indian subcontinent in both cases. It is found that the zonal wind perturbations migrate northward at a rate of about 0.8° latitude per day in E1 while they have a slightly faster propagation speed of about 1° latitude per day in E2. The low frequency monsoonal modes have smaller amplitude but possess greater regularity in E2 relative to E1. As the wavelet trains of low latitude anomalies progress northward it is found that the giant meridional monsoonal circulation (RHC) undergoes well-defined intraseasonal oscillations. The amplitude of the monsoon RHC oscillations are significantly weaker in E2 as compared to E1. But what is more important is that the RHC is found to oscillate rapidly with a period of 40 days in E1 while it executes slower oscillations of 55 days period in E2. These results support the observational findings of Yasunari (1980) who showed that the cloudiness fluctuations on the 30–60 day time scale over the Indian summer monsoon region are associated with longer periods during El Nino years. The oscillations of the monsoon RHC show an enhancement of the larger scale meridional cells and also a stronger suppression of the smaller scale cells in E2 relative to E1 which seems to account for the slower fluctuations of the monsoon RHC in the warm ENSO experiment. It is also proposed that the periodic arrival of the eastward propagating equatorial wave over the Indian longitudes followed by a stronger inhibition of the smaller meridional scales happen to be the two primary mechanisms that favour steady and regular northward propagation of intraseasonal transients over the Indian subcontinent in the warm ENSO experiment (E2). This study clearly demonstrates that the presence of E1 Nino related summertime SST anomalies and associated convection anomalies in the tropical central and eastern Pacific are favourable criteria for the detection and prediction of low frequency monsoonal modes over India.With 11 Figures     

Maximum precipitation for different short-term intervals

Summary A time series and extreme value analysis of maximum precipitation for distinct time intervals from 10 minutes to 1 day have been deduced for the observatory Zagreb-Gri ( = 45°49 and = 15°59,H _s = 157 m) for the period between 1908 and 1985. The Spearman rank correlation test revealed that the short-term precipitation maxima series for the time intervals of 10 to 30 minutes and 8 to 24 hours indicate no significant trend for the 95 percent probability level. The 40-minute to 4-hour precipitation maxima exhibited an increaese in recent time. Annual maximumt-minute precipitation was estimated using the Gumbel distribution for sets of data gradually prolonged with 10-year steps towards the past. The ratios (q) of maximum precipitation estimates for the shorter periods and of estimates for the reference period (1908–1985) have been calculated. Their positions according to the confidence interval on the reference estimates were determined. Confident extreme value estimates could be obtained using at least the 50–60 year data series.With 3 Figures     

Outgoing long-wave radiation over the Tropical Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Summary In this paper, the interannual variability of satellite derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is examined in relation to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June to September total rainfall; ISMR). Monthly grid point OLR field over the domain i.e. the tropical Pacific and Atlantic region (30°N to 30°S, 110°E to 10°W) and the ISMR for the period 1974–2001 are used for the study. A strong and significant north–south dipole structure in the correlation pattern is found between the ISMR and the OLR field over the domain during January. This dipole is located over the west Pacific region with highly significant negative (positive) correlations over the South China Sea and surrounding region (around north-east Australia). The dipole weakens and moves northwestward during February and disappears in March. During the month of May, the OLR over the central Atlantic Ocean shows a significant positive relationship with the ISMR. These relationships are found to be consistent and robust during the period of analysis and can be used in the prediction of the ISMR.A multiple regression equation is developed, using the above results, for prediction of the ISMR and the empirical relationships are verified using an independent data set. The results are encouraging for the prediction of the ISMR. The composite annual cycle of the OLR, over the west Pacific regions during extreme ISMR is found to be useful in the prediction of extreme summer monsoon rainfall conditions over the Indian subcontinent.     

Zonal circulation indices, 500 hPa April ridge position along 75° E and Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Statistical relationships

Summary This paper presents an examination of the statistical relationship between summer monsoon rainfall over all India, and two sub-regions (north west India and peninsular India) and the indices of mid-latitude (35° to 70° N) zonal circulation at 500 hPa level, over different sectors of the hemisphere, based on 19 years (1971–1989) data. The results indicate that summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) over India shows; (i) a significant and direct relationship with the strength of the zonal circulation index during concurrent July over the sector 90° E to 160° E. (ii) a significant inverse relationship with the strength of the zonal index during the previous April over the sector 160° E to 45° W and a similar relationship with the whole northern hemisphere and (iii) a significant and direct relationship with the frequency of the zonal index during the previous January over the sector 45° W to 90° E.Significant relationships are also observed between the zonal circulation indices of the above mentioned months and sectors with the 500 hPa ridge location in April at 75° E over India.With 4 Figures     

Thermodynamic structure of the boundary layer in relation to a monsoon depression over the Bay of Bengal — A case study

Aerological observations carried out on board ORV Sagarkanya at a stationary location (20° N, 89° E) over the Head Bay of Bengal during August 18–21, 1990 were analysed to study the thermodynamic structure of the marine boundary layer in relation to a monsoon depression which formedin situ with its centre at 20° N, 88° E. The q(mixing ratio) reversal observed at 850 hPa prior to formation of the low pressure area shifted to a higher level (h<700 hPa) with the formtion of the low. Positive buoyancy below 850 hPa prior to the formation of the low indicated conditions favourable for deep convection. When the low pressure area intensified into a depression, negative buoyancy was observed at lower levels.     

Wind direction in Southern Sweden 1740–1992: Variation and correlation with temperature and zonality

Summary Wind direction variation in Lund, s. Sweden is investigated for the period 1740–1992. Around 1860 the initial bidirectional (W—E) continental flow pattern changed to a combined uni- (W) and bi-directional pattern, which has increased the maritimity; in recent decades, an exceptionally high W'ly influence is present. The process toward a higher degree of maritimity has not been a strictly linear one; the 1820's–1830's and the 1940's–1960's are exceptions from this generalization. Trends of declining N'ly and NE'ly winds are accompanied by increased frequencies of SE'ly and SW'ly winds. From the wind direction data, using multiple regression analysis, hindcasting models for temperature and zonality (zonality index P_45°N-P_65°N in the sector 5° E-40° E) are established for the time when such meteorological observations are unavailable (i.e. before 1860; temperature and before 1899; zonality). The accuracy of monthly zonality index estimations varies betweenR = 0.76–0.93; temperatureR = 0.35–0.80. Models for January temperature and zonality are the most reliable ones. Presence of a very low zonal index in January characterised the mid 18th century (average 4 hPa compared to the current value 10hPa) which resulted in colder winters, according to the January estimate, 1.5 °C colder than present.With 10 Figures     

Air-sea fluxes over the global oceans during the FGGE year

Summary Vertical fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat have been estimated over the surface of the global oceans. A three-dimensional mesh grid 32 longitude points, 17 latitude points and 365 days from December 1, 1978 to November 30, 1979 is used to obtain seasonal and annual mean values of the surface fluxes. The global climatology shows the seasonal variation, the continental influence, the principal ocean currents and the typical middle latitude (30°–50°) and tropical effects (30°S–30°N). The annual mean of latent heat shows greater flux over the subtropical regions (~ 280 W/m²) than in the polar regions (~ 80 W/m²). On the other hand, the annual mean of sensible heat shows greater flux over the polar regions (~ 100 W/m²) than in the tropics (~ 40 W/m²). Time series analyses of the daily estimates of the surface fluxes show greater energy at high frequencies due to the surface effect; however, the low-frequency spectra show relatively high energy at the 30- to 50-day mode, especially for the middle latitude regions. The 30–50 day filtered data for the surface fluxes, presented in time/latitude cross-sections for the middle latitude regions show a westerly wave propagation with wave numberK = 2 and phase speed of the order of 12 degrees/day from June to August over the southern hemisphere at 55°S.

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Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie beschäftigt sich mit der Einschätzung der vertikalen Impuls-Flüsse und der Flüsse von sensibler und latenter Wärme über der gesamten Meeresoberfläche. Ein dreidimensionales Gitter mit 32 × 17 Punkten und Daten von 365 Tagen (von 1. 12. 1978 bis 30. 11. 1979) wird benutzt, um sowohl Jahreszeiten als auch Jahresmittelwerte der Oberflächenflüsse zu erhalten. Die globale Klimatologie zeigt die jahreszeitlichen Schwankungen, den kontinentalen Einfluß, die wichtigsten Meeresströmungen und die typischen Effekte der mittleren Breiten (30°–50°) und der Tropen (30°S–30°N). Das Jahresmittel latenter Wärme weist größere Flüsse über subtropischen Regionen (ca. 280 W/m²) als über polaren Regionen (ca. 80 W/m²) auf, während andererseits das Jahresmittel sensibler Wärme über Polarregionen (ca. 100 W/m²) größere Flüsse als über den Tropen (ca. 40 W/m²) aufweist. Zeitreihen-Analysen der täglichen Schätzwerte von Oberflächenflüssen deuten auf mehr Energie bei hohen Frequenzen aufgrund des Oberflächeneffekts hin; in jedem Fall zeigen die Niederfrequenz-Spektren relativ hohe Energie in den 30 – 50-Tage-Perioden, besonders für mittlere Breiten. Die über einen Zeitraum von 30 – 50 Tagen gesammelten Daten der Oberflächenflüsse dargestellt in Zeit-Breiten-Querschnitten für mittlere Breiten zeigen von Juni bis August über der südlichen Hemisphäre bei 55°S eine Ausbreitung der westlichen Wellen mit der WellenzahlK = 2 und einer Phasengeschwindigkeit im Ausmaß von 12° pro Tag.

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With 7 Figures     

Nitrate in the atmospheric boundary layer of the tropical South Pacific: Implications regarding sources and transport

Weekly bulk aerosol samples collected at Funafuti, Tuvalu (8°30S, 179°12E), American Samoa (14°15S, 170°35W), and Rarotonga (21°15S, 159°45W), from 1983 through most of 1987 have been analyzed for nitrate and other constituents. The mean nitrate concentration is about 0.11 g m^–3 at each of these stations: 0.107±0.011 g m^–3 at Funafuti; 0.116±0.008 at American Samoa; and 0.117±0.010 at Rarotonga. Previous measurements of mineral aerosol and trace metal concentrations at American Samoa are among the lowest ever recorded for the near-surface troposphere and indicate that this region is minimally affected by transport of soil material and pollutants from the continents. Consequently, the nitrate concentration of 0.11 g m^–3 can be regarded as the natural level for the remote marine boundary layer of the tropical South Pacific Ocean. In contrast, over the tropical North Pacific which is significantly impacted by the transport of material from Asia and North America, the mean nitrate concentrations are about three times higher, 0.29 and 0.36 g m^–3 at Midway and Oahu, respectively. The major sources of the nitrate over the tropical South Pacific are still very uncertain. A very significant correlation between the nitrate concentrations at American Samoa and the concentrations of ²¹⁰Pb suggests that transport from continental sources might be important. This continental source could be lightning, which occurs most frequently over the tropical continents. A near-zero correlation with ⁷Be indicates that the stratosphere and upper troposphere are probably not the major sources. A significant biogenic source would be consistent with the higher mean nitrate concentrations, 0.16 to 0.17 g m^–3, found over the equatorial Pacific at Fanning Island (3°55N, 159°20W) and Nauru (0°32S, 166°57E). The lack of correlation between nitrate and nss sulfate at American Samoa does not necessarily preclude an important role for marine biogenic sources.