Quantifying hydrological responses to monsoon-controlled precipitation across the soil-groundwater-stream continuum with long-term high-frequency hydrometric monitoring

Stream water, groundwater and soil water in the riparian zone are closely linked. Their responses to rainfall events controlled by monsoon climate are variable and intertwined, which are still not well known. To address this knowledge gap, we established a monitoring transect adjacent to a headwater stream in Huashan Catchment, eastern China, with typical monsoon climate. We monitored precipitation, stream stage, groundwater level and soil moisture content at intervals of maximum 30 min. We then conducted an event-based analysis of rainfall event characteristics and diverse response metrics, and assessed their correlations and interrelationships through correlation and regression analysis. Our 2-year monitoring results show that water level responses occurred in most rainfall events. They had smaller threshold of rainfall amount and timing but longer time to peak response. Stream responses exhibited smaller response magnitude and intensities than groundwater responses. Rainfall amount and event duration were the most critical driving factors for groundwater responses. Soil moisture responses varied with depth. Only large storms could propagate into topsoil and generate rapid responses. Middle soil moisture responses had more frequent response occurrence and more variable response magnitude, while deep soil moisture responses had smaller response magnitude, longer time to peak response and larger wetting front movement velocity. Attenuated initial response timing with depth identified preferential flow, reflecting heterogeneity in the soil profile. Monsoon-controlled heavy rainfall improved hydrologic connectivity in the soil-groundwater-stream continuum (SGSC), mediating the influence of heterogeneity on soil moisture responses and potentially contributing more subsurface flow to catchment runoff. Overall, this study aimed to reveal the mechanism of hydrological responses to monsoon-controlled precipitation across the SGSC.     

降雨条件下边坡体积含水率变化规律研究

持续降雨是边坡发生失稳破坏的主要诱因之一,基于饱和—非饱和渗流理论,对梅州市大埔县某边坡的渗流场进行模拟,研究在不同降雨工况下该边坡土体体积含水率的时空变化规律。研究结果表明:相同条件下,降雨强度越大(降雨历时越长),边坡表层土体体积含水率变化越大;降雨强度60 mm/d历时1 d的暴雨对边坡表层土体体积含水率的增幅作用存在着一定的滞后性,其余工况未表现出滞后现象;降雨强度为120mm/d和300 mm/d的两种工况各研究点任意时段体积含水率较为接近;当降雨强度达到60 mm/d以上时,边坡内部体积含水率空间变化主要受降雨历时影响,降雨历时越长,降雨入渗深度和体积含水率变化越大。     

Field studies on the influence of rainfall intensity,vegetation cover and slope length on soil moisture infiltration on typical watersheds of the Loess Plateau,China

Soil moisture is a key process in the hydrological cycle. During ecological restoration of the Loess Plateau, soil moisture status has undergone important changes, and infiltration of soil moisture during precipitation events is a key link affecting water distribution. Our study aims to quantify the effects of vegetation cover, rainfall intensity and slope length on total infiltration and the spatial variation of water flow. Infiltration data from the upper, middle and lower slopes of a bare slope, a natural grassland and an artificial shrub grassland were obtained using a simulated rainfall experiment. The angle of the study slope was 15° and rainfall intensity was set at 60, 90, 120, 150, and 180 mm/hr. The effect these factors have on soil moisture infiltration was quantified using main effect analysis. Our results indicate that the average infiltration depth (ID) of a bare slope, a grassland slope and an artificial shrub grassland slope was 46.7–73.3, 60–80, and 60–93.3 cm, respectively, and average soil moisture storage increment was 3.5–5.7, 5.0–9.4, and 5.7–10.2 mm under different rainfall intensities, respectively. Heavy rainfall intensity and vegetation cover reduced the difference of soil infiltration in the 0–40 cm soil layer, and rainfall intensity increased surface infiltration differences on the bare slope, the grassland slope and the artificial shrub grassland slope. Infiltration was dominated by rainfall intensity, accounting for 63.03–88.92%. As rainfall continued, the contribution of rainfall intensity to infiltration gradually decreased, and the contribution of vegetation cover and slope length to infiltration increased. The interactive contribution was: rainfall intensity * vegetation cover > vegetation cover * slope length > rainfall * slope length. In the grass and shrub grass slopes, lateral flow was found at a depth of 23–37 cm when the slope length was 5–10 m, this being related to the difference in soil infiltration capacity between different soil layers formed by the spatial cross-connection of roots.     

Spatio‐temporal variability of piezometric response on two steep alpine hillslopes

Information on the main drivers of subsurface flow generation on hillslopes of alpine headwater catchments is still missing. Therefore, the dominant factors controlling the water table response to precipitation at the hillslope scale in the alpine Bridge Creek Catchment, Northern Italy, were investigated. Two steep hillslopes of similar size, soil properties and vegetation cover but contrasting topography were instrumented with 24 piezometric wells. Sixty‐three (63) rainfall‐runoff events were selected over three years in the snow‐free months to analyse the influence of rainfall depth, antecedent moisture conditions, hillslope topographic characteristics and soil depth on shallow water table dynamics. Piezometric response, expressed as percentage of well activation and water peak magnitude, was strongly correlated with soil moisture status, as described by an index combining antecedent soil moisture and rainfall depth. Hillslope topography was found to be a dominant control only for the convex‐divergent hillslope and during wet conditions. Timing of water table response depended primarily on soil depth and topographic position, with piezometric peak response occurring later and showing a greater temporal variability at the hillslope bottom, characterized by thicker soil. The relationship between mean hillslope water table level and standard deviation for all wells reflected the timing of the water table response at the different locations along the hillslopes. The outcomes of this research contribute to a better understanding of the controls on piezometric response at the hillslope scale in steep terrain and its role on the hydrological functioning of the study catchment and of other sites with similar physiographic characteristics. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil moisture response to rainfall on the Chinese Loess Plateau after a long‐term vegetation rehabilitation

The Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is a unique Critical Zone with deep loess deposits, where soil moisture is primarily replenished by seasonal monsoon rainfall. However, the role of vegetation, coupled with complex topography, on rainwater infiltration on the CLP, especially after long‐term revegetation for controlling erosion, is inadequately quantified. Over the growing season of 2016, we monitored soil moisture at the 30‐min interval at 5 depths (10, 20, 40, 60, and 100 cm) in an afforested catchment and a nearby catchment with natural regrowth of grasses. Two monitoring sites were established in each catchment, one in the downhill gully and the other in the uphill slope. We found that vegetation, topography, and rainfall attributes together determined rainwater infiltration and soil moisture replenishment. An accumulated rainfall amount of 9 mm was required to trigger soil moisture response at 10‐cm depth at the 2 grassland sites and the forestland uphill‐slope site whereas 14 mm of rainfall was required for the forestland gully site covered by dense undergrowth and trees. Rainfall events with larger sums and higher peak intensities permitted rainwater infiltration to deeper soil depths. However, no rain recharged soil moisture to 100‐cm depth during the monitoring period. The forestland uphill‐slope site showed the deepest wetting depth (up to 60‐cm depth), fastest wetting‐front velocity (up to 4 cm/hr below 10‐cm depth), and the most significant soil moisture increase (up to 15% cm ³ cm^?3 increase at 10‐cm depth) after rainfall in the growing season. The grassland gully site had the highest soil water storage, whereas soil moisture was depleted the most at the forestland gully site. Findings of this study reveal the transient dynamics of soil moisture after rainfall on the CLP, which signifies the role of revegetation on rainwater infiltration in the loess Critical Zone.     

Shallow groundwater response to rainfall on a forested headwater catchment in northern coastal California: implications of topography,rainfall, and throughfall intensities on peak pressure head generation

The pore water pressure head that builds in the soil during storms is a critical factor for the prediction of potential slope instability. We report findings from a 3‐year study of pressure head in 83 piezometers distributed within a 13‐ha forested catchment on the northern coast of California. The study's primary objective was to observe the seasonal and storm‐based dynamics of pressure head at a catchment scale in relation to observed rainfall characteristics and in situ topography to better understand landscape patterns of pressure head. An additional goal was to determine the influence of the interaction between rainfall and forest canopy in altering delivery of water and pressure head during the large storms necessary to induce landsliding. We found that pressure head was highly variable in space and time at the catchment scale. Pore pressures peaked close to maximum rainfall intensity during the largest storms measured. The difference between rainfall and throughfall delivered through the canopy was negligible during the critical landslide‐producing peak rainfall periods. Pore pressure was spatially variable within the catchment and did not strongly correlate with surficial topographic features. Only 23% of the piezometers located in a variety of slope positions were found to be highly responsive to rainfall. Topographic index statistically explained peak pressure head at responsive locations during common storms, but not during the larger storms with potential to produce landslides. Drainage efficiency throughout the catchment increased significantly in storms exceeding 2 to 7 months peak pressure head return period indicated by slowing or cessation of the rate of increase of pressure head with increasing storm magnitude. This asymptotic piezometric pattern persisted through the largest storm measured during the study. Faster soil drainage suppressed pressure head response in larger storms with important process implications for pore pressure development and landslide hazard modelling. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A hillslope hydrology approach for catchment‐scale slope stability analysis

Regional analysis of slope stability is often constrained by availability of data. Model requirements for input data cannot be met at the desired spatial resolution because data are either site‐speci?c or non‐existent. Faced with these dif?culties it has often been the practice to assume that certain parameters are uniform throughout the area of interest. An alternative approach proposed here allows a more detailed discrimination of slope stability conditions. Based on the principles of hillslope hydrology, hydrologic information can be generated at suf?cient resolution to allow higher resolution slope stability analysis. Measurements from an instrumented network in a small area have been used to establish index‐based models for topographic and climate‐related controls of piezometric response. The ability to relate groundwater levels to rainfall and topographic parameters provides a means of up‐scaling to larger catchments and ultimately the opportunity to generate a catchment‐wide prediction of the distribution, magnitude and frequency of rainstorm‐generated groundwater levels. The example provided in this study uses the topography index of TOPMODEL in GIS to predict the spatial patterns of groundwater elevation for seasonal soil moisture conditions and given rainfall inputs. This allows modelling of catchment‐wide response of soil water to rainstorms with different return periods (representing different magnitudes), and is an essential prerequisite for a probabilistic regional slope stability analysis. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Storm runoff response to rainfall pattern,magnitude and urbanization in a developing urban catchment

This study explored the hydrological impacts of urbanization, rainfall pattern and magnitude in a developing catchment. The Stormwater Management Model was parameterized, calibrated and validated in three development phases, which had the same catchment area (12.3 ha) but different land use intensities. The model calibration and validation by using sub‐hourly hydro‐meteorological data demonstrated a good performance of the model in predicting stormwater runoff in the different development phases. Based on the results, a threshold between minor and major rainfall events was identified and conservatively determined to be about 17.5 mm in depth. Direct runoff for minor storm events has a linear relationship with rainfall; however, events with a rainfall depth greater than the threshold yield a rainfall–runoff regression line with a clearly steeper slope. The difference in urban runoff generation between minor and major rainfall events diminishes with the increase of imperviousness. Urbanization leads to an increase in the production of stormwater runoff, but during infrequent major storms, the runoff contribution from pervious surfaces reduces the runoff changes owing to urbanization. Rainfall pattern exerts an important effect on urban runoff, which is reflected in pervious runoff. With the same magnitude, prolonged rainfall events with unvarying low intensity yield the smallest peak flow and the smallest total runoff, yet rainfall events with high peak intensity produce the largest runoff volume. These results demonstrate the different roles of impervious and pervious surfaces in runoff generation, and how runoff responds to rainstorms in urban catchments depends on hyetograph and event magnitude. Furthermore, the study provides a scientific basis of the design guideline sustainable urban drainage systems, which are still arbitrary in many countries. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study of Shaking Table Test on Dynamic Response Characteristics and Failure Mechanism of the Loess Slope

The natural loess that covers the ground surface has good stability due to its low water content. However, when violent earthquakes occur, the strong dynamic stress generated in the slope may induce landslide disasters with different sizes. In this paper, a large-scale shaking table model test is used to reveal the dynamic response and instability failure process of the loess slope. The test results show that different parts of the slope have different vibration characteristics and the first natural frequency in the model increases with the increase of the slope height. The response acceleration of different parts may change due to the coupling relationship between the spectral characteristics of input wave and the natural frequencies of different parts of slope, suggesting the characteristics of regional differential dynamic response. Under the condition of different dynamic response, stress state and boundary conditions of different parts of slope, a rapid microstructural damage, cumulative residual deformation evolution, and tension-shear coupling instability failure process may appear at the top of the slope with the strong dynamic response associated with the increase of dynamic loading intensity. The S_d values presented in this paper may reflect soil damage and slope instability and failure.     

Flood hydrograph estimation from arid catchment morphology

Data on performance of a geomorphologic rainfall-runoff model in simulating observed flash flood hydrographs in 32 arid catchments have been analysed. The catchments, which are located in the southwest region of Saudi Arabia, vary in their size, slope of land, and characteristics of soils, and are in zones of different rainstorm characteristics. The sensitivity of the model accuracy with various catchment and rainfall characteristics has been investigated. Size, followed by rate of infiltration and slope of land, are the most effective catchment characteristics affecting the accuracy. In addition, the accuracy varies with spatial and temporal rainfall variation, total rainfall depth, and length of the dry period between two successive rainstorms over catchment. It is sensitive to temporal rainfall variation more than spatial rainfall variation, and to the dry period more than total rainfall depth. Generally, the model did not display an accuracy approaching that of the observations, especially in simulating peak flowrates in large size infiltrating catchments having high temporal rainstorm variation. Guidelines on the best use of the model in arid catchments were proposed.     

Seasonal Variations of Currents over the Western Slope of the Middle Caspian Bed

Results of field observations of current dynamics in the frontal zone of the western Middle Caspian are given. The cyclonic circulation over the western slope in winter is shown to be a unidirectional intense current with velocities up to 100 cm/s. In summer, the current slows down and separates into branches—it turns southwestward and westward at the slope depth down to 150 m, southward and southeastward at the depth of ~100–350 m, and eastward at larger depths. In summer, shelf currents interact with the flow of Middle Caspian cyclonic circulation, resulting in that anticyclonic vortices reach the shelf.     

Difference infiltrometer: a method to measure temporally variable infiltration rates during rainstorms

We developed a difference infiltrometer to measure time series of non‐steady infiltration rates during rainstorms at the point scale. The infiltrometer uses two, tipping bucket rain gages. One gage measures rainfall onto, and the other measures runoff from, a small circular plot about 0.5‐m in diameter. The small size allows the infiltration rate to be computed as the difference of the cumulative rainfall and cumulative runoff without having to route water through a large plot. Difference infiltrometers were deployed in an area burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire near Boulder, Colorado, USA, and data were collected during the summer of 2011. The difference infiltrometer demonstrated the capability to capture different magnitudes of infiltration rates and temporal variability associated with convective (high intensity, short duration) and cyclonic (low intensity, long duration) rainstorms. Data from the difference infiltrometer were used to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil affected by the heat from a wildfire. The difference infiltrometer is portable and can be deployed in rugged, steep terrain and does not require the transport of water, as many rainfall simulators require, because it uses natural rainfall. It can be used to assess infiltration models, determine runoff coefficients, identify rainfall depth or rainfall intensity thresholds to initiate runoff, estimate parameters for infiltration models, and compare remediation treatments on disturbed landscapes. The difference infiltrometer can be linked with other types of soil monitoring equipment in long‐term studies for detecting temporal and spatial variability at multiple time scales and in nested designs where it can be linked to hillslope and basin‐scale runoff responses. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Internal soil moisture and piezometric responses to rainfall-induced shallow slope failures

Better knowledge regarding internal soil moisture and piezometric responses in the process of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures is the key to an effective prediction of the landslide and/or debris flow initiation. To this end, internal soil moisture and piezometric response of 0.7-m-deep, 1.5-m-wide, 1.7-m-high, and 3.94-m-long semi-infinite sandy slopes rested on a bi-linear impermeable bedrock were explored using a chute test facility with artificial rainfall applications. The internal response time defined by the inflection point of the soil moisture and piezometric response curves obtained along the soil–bedrock interface were closely related to some critical failure states, such as the slope toe failure and extensive slope failures. It was also found that the response times obtained at the point of abrupt bedrock slope decrease can be used as indicators for the initiation of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures. An investigation of spatial distributions of soil water content, ω (or degrees of saturation, S_r), in the slope at critical failure states shows that the 0.2 m – below – surface zone remains unsaturated with S_r 40–60%, regardless of their distances from the toe and the rainfall intensity. Non-uniform distributions of ω (or S_r) along the soil–bedrock interface at critical failure states were always associated with near-saturation states (S_r 80–100%) around the point of bedrock slope change or around the transient ‘toe’ upstream of the slumped mass induced by the retrogressive failure of the slope. These observations suggest the important role of the interflow along the soil–bedrock interface and the high soil water content (or high porewater pressure) around the point of bedrock slope deflection in the rainfall-induced failure of sandy slopes consisting of shallow impermeable bedrocks. The present study proposes an ‘internal response time’ criterion to substantiate the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures. It is believed that the ‘internal response time’ reflects the overall characteristics of a slope under rainfall infiltration and can be as useful as the conventional meteorology-based threshold times. The ‘internal response time’ theory can be generalized via numerical modeling of slope hydrology, slope geology and slope stability in the future.     

A study of the infiltration characteristics of undisturbed soil under simulated rainfall

Infiltration is the single most important parameter in deriving the net quick response rainfall which contributes to stream flood discharges. Rainfall simulation is used to study the infiltration characteristics in a typical catchment, the Six Mile Water in N. Ireland. The design of the simulator was such that it could be easily moved from one test area to another within the catchment to examine the effect of soil and slope variation. The simulator was first calibrated in controlled laboratory conditions and later the calibration was checked in the field. The simulator was mounted over an undisturbed plot of 37 m² and the surface runoff from the area measured by means of a collecting channel located along a lower edge of the plot. Soil moisture variations were monitored using a soil moisture neutron probe. Soil classification tests and gravimetric moisture contents were carried out on each plot. The field tests were carried out with variations in rainfall intensity, initial conditions, changing seasons, and for different plots within the catchment area. The results obtained are unique in that they present data obtained under field conditions for undisturbed soil within a natural catchment. The infiltration behaviour was found to depend upon rainfall intensity, initial conditions of the plot under consideration, seasonal temperature, and a slope of the plot. The data showed that while a classical Horton type equation for infiltration was suitable for the later stages of each test result when significant surface runoff was taking place, the model failed to represent early response adequately due to storage effects being omitted in the equation. A modified form of Horton equation is proposed, which models more accurately the infiltration characteristics of the full period of each test run.     

Responses of soil moisture at different topographic positions to rainfall events along a steep subtropical forested hillslope

Understanding the dynamic response of soil moisture to rainfall is crucial for describing hydrological processes at the hillslope scale. However, because of sparse monitoring coupled with the complexity of water movement and steep topography, the findings of rainfall-related soil moisture dynamics have not always been consistent, indicating a need for systematic investigations of soil moisture dynamics and infiltration patterns following rainfall inputs at multiple topographic positions along a hillslope. This study aimed to examine the nature of these responses by characterizing and quantifying the response amplitude, rate and time for 37 large rainfall events at 25 combinations of topographic positions and soil depths along a steep forested hillslope. Our results showed that soil moisture responses under different rainfall patterns could be attributed to one or the other rainfall characteristics, such as rainfall intensity and amount. However, soil moisture dynamics at different hillslope positions after rainfall varied widely due to the controls of soil properties, topography, and non-equilibrium flow. Preferential flow was more evident under dry initial soil conditions than under wet initial soil conditions. Findings of this study reveal that the dynamic response patterns of soil moisture to rainfall do not always follow topographic controls, which can improve our understanding of water cycling related to the infiltration process at the hillslope scale, and support water resources management in subtropical mountain ecosystems.     

A laboratory experiment on the role of grass for infiltration and runoff processes

Two lysimeters with the same dimensions were provided, and filled with the same loam clay. On the soil surface of one lysimeter, grass was planted to compare the hydrologic response of the grassed lysimeter with that of the other bare soil lysimeter.

About half of the runoff from the bare soil lysimeter occurred as overland flow, the rest being groundwater flow. Overland flow scarcely occurred from the grassed lysimeter. Grass roots that developed deep into the soil layer play an important role in increasing the infiltration rate as well as in drying the soil uniformly throughout the soil layer by evapotranspiration, preparing for high infiltration and large rainwater storage for the subsequent rainfall event. Accordingly, the total loss by evapotranspiration from the grassed soil amounts to almost twice that from the bare soil.

For an evaporation- and evapotranspiration-prohibited experiment, the recession characteristics from a saturation state showed similar features for the bare and grassed soils, indicating the same microstructure of high moisture reservability for both soils.

The well-developed grass root system reformed the soil structure considerably to produce the seemingly contradicting characteristics of high moisture conductivity and high moisture reservability; i.e. a high infiltration rate and prolonged groundwater discharge.

Finally, the importance of the initial soil moisture in the rainfall-runoff process, rainfall loss and runoff ratio is stressed.     

An experimental investigation of the effects of thawed soil depth on rill flow velocity

Water flow velocity is an important hydraulic variable in hydrological and soil erosion models, and is greatly affected by freezing and thawing of the surface soil layer in cold high-altitude regions. The accurate measurement of rill flow velocity when impacted by the thawing process is critical to simulate runoff and sediment transport processes. In this study, an electrolyte tracer modelling method was used to measure rill flow velocity along a meadow soil slope at different thaw depths under simulated rainfall. Rill flow velocity was measured using four thawed soil depths (0, 1, 2 and 10 cm), four slope gradients (5°, 10°, 15° and 20°) and four rainfall intensities (30, 60, 90 and 120 mm·h⁻¹). The results showed that the increase in thawed soil depth caused a decrease in rill flow velocity, whereby the rate of this decrease was also diminishing. Whilst the rill flow velocity was positively correlated with slope gradient and rainfall intensity, the response of rill flow velocity to these influencing factors varied with thawed soil depth. The mechanism by which thawed soil depth influenced rill flow velocity was attributed to the consumption of runoff energy, slope surface roughness, and the headcut effect. Rill flow velocity was modelled by thawed soil depth, slope gradient and rainfall intensity using an empirical function. This function predicted values that were in good agreement with the measured data. These results provide the foundation for a better understanding of the effect of thawed soil depth on slope hydrology, erosion and the parameterization scheme for hydrological and soil erosion models.     

Spatial analysis of the reliability of transport networks subject to rainfall‐induced landslides

A methodology is developed to examine the susceptibility of a transport system to rainfall‐induced landslides and is demonstrated for part of the UK rail network with regard to the potential changes that might occur with climate change. A mathematical model is given for the system failure and a statistical model is formulated for the joint distribution of rainfall at different points along the railway line. These are used to investigate the response of earth embankments along the railway line to current and future climate scenarios, including the effects of rainfall and evapotranspiration on slope hydrology and stability. It is shown that, for the system of clay embankments in question, the moisture profile through the embankment at the end of the summer months has a critical effect on system stability, both in terms of expected failure timing and probability of failure. Further, it is seen that, with changing climate, the system stability is likely to increase unless the degradation of embankment material properties, another potential effect of changed climate, is taken into account. The spatial distribution of failures is also likely to change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大气季节内振荡的活动与江淮流域夏季旱涝

观测资料的分析极为清楚地表明,江淮流域的夏季降水有着极为明显的低频变化,周期为30-60d和近20d的振荡是其最基本的特征,尤其是在多雨的年份.对应江淮夏季多雨(涝)年和少雨(旱)年,大气环流的分析表明其大气季节内振荡(IS0)的形势有着显著的差异.例如在多雨(少雨)年,在长江以南的850hPa上为一个低频(IS0)反气旋(气旋)性环流控制,而中国北部和日本一带为气旋(反气旋)性环流,从而在江淮流域形成较强的低频辐合(辐散)气流;在200hPa的青藏高原上却为一个低频气旋(反气旋)性环流所控制.分析还表明,对应多雨年,在江淮流域有明显的由中高讳度向南传播和由低玮度向北传播的大气低频振荡的汇合情况;而对应于少雨年,由中高纬度向南传播的低频系统较不明显,在江淮流域低频系统的汇合也较为不清楚.