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Probability kriging is implemented in a general cokriging procedure (c.f. Myers, 1982) for estimatingboth the indicator and uniform transforms. Paired-sum semi-variograms are used to facilitate the modeling of the cross-covariance between the uniform transform and each indicator transform. Estimates of the uniform transform are averaged over all cutoffs, the average used to derive an estimate of the original data. This estimate can be biased with respect to the mean data value, but is unbiased with respect to the data median. 相似文献
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根据无粘性均匀沙起动的力学条件,在已有研究成果基础上,推导出泥沙起动概率与水流条件之间的关系式,得到考虑起动概率的起动切应力及起动流速公式,并将起动条件与起动标准联系分析.通过对现有几个典型无粘性均匀沙起动条件公式分析表明,本文公式较为合理. 相似文献
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This paper studies the probability distribution for the mobilised shear strength of a spatially variable soil mass that is subjected to a uniform stress state. Based on the mechanisms identified in two previous studies conducted by the authors, this study further proposes a probability distribution model for the mobilised shear strength that is based on the extreme value of normal random variables. It is concluded that the probability distribution of the mobilised shear strength of a spatially variable soil mass is affected by the line averaging effect along the potential slip plane and the number of independent potential slip planes. These two factors depend on the stress state and the orientation of the potential slip planes. With this model, the mobilised shear strength of a spatially variable soil mass can be simulated without the need of conducting random-field finite-element analyses. In addition, the strength characteristic value that is the 5% quantile in the Eurocodes can be easily derived from this model. 相似文献
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Stochastic simulation techniques which do not depend on a back transform step to reproduce a prior marginal cumulative distribution function (cdf)may lead to deviations from that distribution which are deemed unacceptable. This paper presents an algorithm to post process simulated realizations or any spatial distribution to reproduce the target cdfin the case of continuous variables or target proportions in the case of categorical variables, yet honoring the conditioning data. Validations conducted for both continuous and categorical cases show that. by adjusting the value of a correction level parameter , the target cdfor proportions can be well reproduced without significant modification of the spatial correlation patterns of the original simulated realizations. 相似文献
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Production of conditional simulations via the LU triangular decomposition of the covariance matrix 总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14
Michael W. Davis 《Mathematical Geology》1987,19(2):91-98
This paper reviews the turning band method and fast Fourier transform method of producing a nonconditional simulation of a multinormal random function with a given covariance structure. A review of the two common methods of conditioning the simulation to honor the data shows that they are formally equivalent. Another method for directly pondering a conditional simulation based on the LU triangular decomposition of the covariance matrix is presented. Computational and implementation difficulties are discussed. 相似文献
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重磁位场数据处理解释的主要任务之一是研究推断地质体的边界位置,而通过对重磁位场数据进行一定方法滤波处理后的相关图件可直观显示地质体的边界。小子域滤波法是众多滤波方法中的一种,前人利用小子域滤波法识别地质体边界位置有较多的研究,目前已有10种类型的小子域滤波法,但是鲜有对10种方法滤波效果的系统研究,给使用者带来诸多不便。因此,设计2组理论模型对比了10种方法的处理效果,并根据试验分析优选了最佳的滤波参数。理论模型与实际资料处理结果表明,滑动形子域滤波法对地质体边界增强的效果最好,且滤波窗口选择5×5数据点、迭代1次即可;对称形子域滤波法在滤除随机噪声的同时能够较好的保持原始异常场的梯度变化特征,滤波窗口选择5×5数据点、迭代2次较好。 相似文献
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This paper presents a comparison of numerical simulations to the measured response of capillary barrier field tests. The simulations were of pilot-scale tests of four 7 m long, 1.2 m thick capillary barriers, two with 5% slopes and two with 10% slopes, with and without an included unsaturated drainage layers. The unsaturated drainage layer was included to encourage lateral drainage. The 5% sloped barriers were subjected to a period of constant infiltration for a period of 74 days, while the 10% system with the drainage layer had water added for 26 days and the conventional capillary barrier with a 10% slope was subjected to 43 days of infiltration. The numerical modelling was conducted using both drying and wetting soil moisture characteristic curves to determine their influence on the results. Differences between the field test and the model data were found, but in general the simulations appeared to adequately reproduce the response of the test systems. It was found that the use of wetting curve data provided a better fit to the field data, more accurately predicting the amount and timing of the percolate produced. © Rapid Science Ltd. 1998 相似文献
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渗流场随机性的随机有限元分析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
基于一阶Taylor随机有限元法,推导出相应的渗流场随机分析中渗流响应量(水头和水力梯度)的随机响应公式,进而实现三维稳定渗流场随机有限元分析,并编制了相应的程序。在分析中,将渗流区域材料的渗透张量视为三维各向异性随机场,利用三维可分离向量随机场的局部平均法对随机场进行离散,根据参数选取的不同,可以离散出不同数量的随机变量。最后,给出一个算例,对离散出随机变量数量不同的情况分别进行随机分析,将分析结果和仅仅将渗透张量视为三维随机变量得到的结果对比,验证了所提方法的可行性。 相似文献
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多年冻土空间异质性和边界条件及土性参数的可变性,往往会导致了冻土变化预测的不确定性,全球气候变暖更加剧这一过程.以青藏高原沱沱河地区试验段冻土融化深度预测为例,提出了在全球气候变暖条件下,基于参数服从某一概率分布的确定性模型的概率分析方法,基于此方法进行了融化深度的概率预测.由含水量、干容重的概率分布和20组ATI(空... 相似文献
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以概率论和灰色系统理论方法为基础,利用灰色概率、灰色概率分布、灰色期望及灰色方差等基本概念,针对环境系统的随机不确定性和灰色不确定性,建立了基于灰色概率的非突发性环境风险度的量化方法. 将非突发性环境风险归因于环境系统的随机不确定性和灰色不确定性,将影响环境容量和环境负荷耗用量的变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布,并用具有灰色概率形式的环境风险度来量化环境系统的非突发性失效风险性. 最后,将具有灰色概率形式的环境风险度转化成一般的系统失效风险率,进而用改进一阶二矩法进行计算. 作为算例给出了该方法应用于嘉陵江苍溪段有机污染风险度的估算. 相似文献
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地质力学磁力模型试验利用电磁力(场)模拟重力(场)的原理研究地质力学工程问题,采用的相似材料由铁磁材料与岩土体混合而成。铁磁材料在磁场中的受力方向和大小与所处空间的磁通密度梯度的大小和方向有关,为了模拟均匀的重力场,需要得到在一定空间范围内磁通密度梯度大小相同、方向单一的磁场。根据电磁学基本原理,构建了3种磁路形式以获得磁通密度梯度相对均匀的磁场,对磁力模型试验相似材料进行加载。对比3种磁路,在最佳试验区内开放式磁路对磁场的利用率更高,所以在电流相同条件下等到的磁通密度梯度的量值也更大。与另两种磁路形式相比,尽管半开放式磁路在重量和工作效率上的性能不及开放式和封闭式磁路,但其最佳试验空间的磁通密度梯度的均匀性最好,误差在5%以内,半开放式磁路可以作为地质力学磁力模型试验的磁场发生装置。 相似文献
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本文概述了滑坡破坏概率分析的基本原理.以三峡库区的龙王庙滑坡为例,论述了地下水对滑坡的作用,进行了滑坡的破坏概率分析,分析结果表明,该滑坡在库水位骤降初期有较高的破坏概率,必须进行治理. 相似文献
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这里实现了在2.5维各向异性介质中地震波传播的数值模拟。首先从2.5维一阶速度-应力弹性各向异性波动方程出发,得出了该方程的拟谱法数值解法;然后通过对Marmousi速度模型进行数值模拟,表明了拟谱法的有效性;最后计算并分析了均匀和混合各向异性介质中波的传播快照和理论模拟的地震记录,进一步认识了波在各向异性介质中的传播规律。 相似文献
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密闭取心是一种特殊取心作业,通过密闭取心钻具与密闭取心钻头配合,在密闭液作用下实现岩心与钻井液隔离,可获得地层原始含油饱和度及油水动态等数据。密闭钻头设计为双流道结构,要满足钻井液过流冲洗冷却钻头唇面、携带岩屑要求,同时密闭液在井底可形成富集区域,有效保护岩心免受钻井液污染,密闭取心钻头流道参数是密闭取心钻头设计的关键。本文运用计算流体力学理论,采用k-epsilon湍流模型及连续性方程对KM型密闭取心钻具配套密闭取心孕镶金刚石钻头的两相流井底流场进行数值模拟,研究钻头唇面两相流混流状态、流体压力、流速、剪切应力分布特征等,分析了流场特征对钻头密闭效果、钻进效率和寿命等的影响,验证了密闭取心孕镶胎块式金刚石钻头流道结构设计参数,提出了钻头两相流流道优化设计建议。 相似文献