Multi‐block finite‐difference method for 3D elastodynamic simulations in anisotropic subhorizontally layered media

Prediction of elastic full wavefields is required for reverse time migration, full waveform inversion, borehole seismology, seismic modelling, etc. We propose a novel algorithm to solve the Navier wave equation, which is based on multi‐block methodology for high‐order finite‐difference schemes on curvilinear grids. In the current implementation, the blocks are subhorizontal layers. Smooth anisotropic heterogeneous media in each layer can have strong discontinuities at the interfaces. A curvilinear adaptive hexahedral grid in blocks is generated by mapping the original 3D physical domain onto a parametric cube with horizontal layers and interfaces. These interfaces correspond to the main curvilinear physical contrast interfaces of a subhorizontally layered formation. The top boundary of the parametric cube handles the land surface with smooth topography. Free‐surface and solid–solid transmission boundary conditions at interfaces are approximated with the second‐order accuracy. Smooth media in the layers are approximated up to sixth‐order spatial schemes. All expected properties of the developed algorithm are demonstrated in numerical tests using corresponding parallel message passing interface code.     

模拟退火方法在三维速度模型地震波走时反演中的应用

采用块状建模以及三角形拼接的界面描述方式,并通过立方体速度网格线性插值获得块体内部的速度分布。正演过程中采用逐段迭代射线追踪方法计算三维复杂地质模型中的射线走时,并采用模拟退火方法进行了三维模型中的地震波走时反演研究。模型测试结果表明,使用的射线追踪和走时反演算法有效。     

Seismic traveltime inversion of 3D velocity model with triangulated interfaces

Seismic traveltime tomographic inversion has played an important role in detecting the internal structure of the solid earth. We use a set of blocks to approximate geologically complex media that cannot be well described by layered models or cells. The geological body is described as an aggregate of arbitrarily shaped blocks, which are separated by triangulated interfaces. We can describe the media as homogenous or heterogeneous in each block. We define the velocities at the given rectangle grid points for each block, and the heterogeneous velocities in each block can be calculated by a linear interpolation algorithm. The parameters of the velocity grid positions are independent of the model parameterization, which is advantageous in the joint inversion of the velocities and the node depths of an interface. We implement a segmentally iterative ray tracer to calculate traveltimes in the 3D heterogeneous block models. The damped least squares method is employed in seismic traveltime inversion, which includes the partial derivatives of traveltime with respect to the depths of nodes in the triangulated interfaces and velocities defined in rectangular grids. The numerical tests indicate that the node depths of a triangulated interface and homogeneous velocity distributions can be well inverted in a stratified model.     

钢框架结构的非线性静力抗震可靠性分析:Ⅰ有限元反应及其灵敏度

作为一种随机有限元方法,有限元可靠度方法通过有限元反应灵敏度分析将结构可靠度分析的近似解析方法与结构确定性分析的有限元方法结合起来,可以有效地处理结构反应是基本随机变量的隐式函数这一难题,因此成为大型复杂结构可靠度分析的有效工具。采用基于位移的非线性纤维梁柱单元对钢框架结构进行有限元建模,推导了单元与截面的基本方程。针对基于位移的纤维梁柱单元,采用逐级递进方式,分别推导了整体级、单元级、截面级和材料级的有限元反应灵敏度直接微分表达式。研究结果可为采用FORM或SORM等近似解析法进行钢框架结构的非线性静力有限元可靠性分析提供算法支持和编程依据。     

考虑土-结构相互作用和岩土参数不确定性的核电厂结构地震响应分析

针对核电厂结构,在考虑土-结构相互作用(SSI)的情况下进行随机地震反应分析,探讨地基岩土参数的不确定性对反应堆厂房楼层反应谱(FRS)的影响。运用ANSYS软件模块建立核电厂(NPP)结构有限元模型,通过设置边界弹簧单元和阻尼装置来考虑SSI效应;并且通过设置具有概率意义的弹簧刚度和阻尼系数,来模拟土特性参数的不确定性。随机响应分析与确定性分析的结果对比,揭示了岩性地基条件下SSI效应对核电厂FRS的影响以及地基岩土参数不确定性对FRS的影响程度。研究表明,在岩性地基条件下,亦不应忽略SSI效应;考虑SSI效应的随机分析模型同确定性模型相比,二者的分析结果较为接近,两方法都可用于NPP的FRS敏感性分析评估之中,并可进行相互比照。     

Upscaling of saturated conductivity for Hortonian runoff modelling

Stochastic and deterministic upscaling techniques are developed that upscale saturated conductivity at the support of 0.04 m² to representative actual infiltration (I_b) for support units (blocks) of 10¹–10⁴ m², as a function of steady state rainfall and runon to the block, under Hortonian runoff (infiltration excess overland flow). Parameters in the upscaling techniques represent the surface runoff flow pattern and the spatial probability distribution of saturated conductivity within the 10¹–10⁴ m² block. The stochastic upscaling technique represents the spatial process of infiltration and runoff using a simple process-imitating model, estimating I_b using Monte Carlo simulation. The deterministic upscaling technique aggregates these processes by a deterministic function relating rainfall and runon to I_b. The stochastic upscaling technique is shown to be capable to upscale saturated conductivity derived from ring infiltrometers to I_b values of plots (1 m²) corresponding to measured I_b values using rainfall simulators. It is shown that both upscaling techniques can be used to estimate I_b for each time step and each block in transient rainfall–runoff models, giving better estimates of cumulative runoff from a hillslope and a small catchment than model runs that do not use upscaling techniques.     

Convergence of deterministic and stochastic approaches in optimal remediation design of a contaminated aquifer

The comparison between two series of optimal remediation designs using deterministic and stochastic approaches showed a number of converging features. Limited sampling measurements in a supposed contaminated aquifer formed the hydraulic conductivity field and the initial concentration distribution used in the optimization process. The deterministic and stochastic approaches employed a single simulation–optimization method and a multiple realization approach, respectively. For both approaches, the optimization model made use of a genetic algorithm. In the deterministic approach, the total cost, extraction rate, and the number of wells used increase when the design must satisfy the intensified concentration constraint. Growing the stack size in the stochastic approach also brings about same effects. In particular, the change in the selection frequency of the used extraction wells, with increasing stack size, for the stochastic approach can indicate the locations of required additional wells in the deterministic approach due to the intensified constraints. These converging features between the two approaches reveal that a deterministic optimization approach with controlled constraints is achievable enough to design reliable remediation strategies, and the results of a stochastic optimization approach are readily available to real contaminated sites.     

Does the river run wild? Assessing chaos in hydrological systems

The standing debate over whether hydrological systems are deterministic or stochastic has been taken to a new level by controversial applications of chaos mathematics. This paper reviews the procedure, constraints, and past usage of a popular chaos time series analysis method, correlation integral analysis, in hydrology and adds a new analysis of daily streamflow from a pristine watershed. Significant problems with the use of correlation integral analysis (CIA) were found to include a continued reliance on the original algorithm even though it was corrected subsequently and failure to consider the physics underlying mathematical results. The new analysis of daily streamflow reported here found no attractor with D⩽5. Phase randomization of the Fourier Transform of streamflow was used to provide a better stochastic surrogate than an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model or gaussian noise for distinguishing between chaotic and stochastic dynamics.     

随机性细胞自动机的地震模拟的动力学含义

结合随机的能量输入和确定的能量损耗，本文用随机性细胞自动机(CA)进行了地震事件的数字模拟，并对事件进行了能量分维和时间序列的多重分形分析。初步结果表明，大量事件的能量-频次的统计分布可能遵从最经典的Gutenberg—Richter关系．不同的初始能量分布和不同的能量传递准则都对模型的输出产生影响，b值与模型参数的设置密切相关，地震现象本质上的复杂性可能是随机性与确定性的统一体现。     

Rainfall data simulation by hidden Markov model and discrete wavelet transformation

In many regions, monthly (or bimonthly) rainfall data can be considered as deterministic while daily rainfall data may be treated as random. As a result, deterministic models may not sufficiently fit the daily data because of the strong stochastic nature, while stochastic models may also not reliably fit into daily rainfall time series because of the deterministic nature at the large scale (i.e. coarse scale). Although there are different approaches for simulating daily rainfall, mixing of deterministic and stochastic models (towards possible representation of both deterministic and stochastic properties) has not hitherto been proposed. An attempt is made in this study to simulate daily rainfall data by utilizing discrete wavelet transformation and hidden Markov model. We use a deterministic model to obtain large-scale data, and a stochastic model to simulate the wavelet tree coefficients. The simulated daily rainfall is obtained by inverse transformation. We then compare the accumulated simulated and accumulated observed data from the Chao Phraya Basin in Thailand. Because of the stochastic nature at the small scale, the simulated daily rainfall on a point to point comparison show deviations with the observed data. However the accumulated simulated data do show some level of agreement with the observed data.     

Dynamical Implications of Earthquake Modeling Using Stochastic Cellular Automata

Combining stochastic energy import and deterministic energy loss,this paper does digital modeling for earthquake events by using stochastic cellular automata(CA),and derives energy fractal dimension analysis and multifractal analysis for time sequences of "earthquake" events from this model.The preliminary results show that statistical energy-frequency distribution of many events yields to the classic Gutenberg-Richter relation; different energy initial statuses and propagation rules both influence the output of the model.The b value tightly correlates to model parameters.The complexity of earthquake phenomena essentially may be both stochastic and deterministic.     

无井条件下建立碎屑岩储层地震地质模型研究

常规的储层建模以井数据为基础,建立孔隙度、渗透率和含油饱和度等储层属性参数模型,并通过油田开发生产数据进行拟合,得到最佳地质模型.在南海西北部深水区无井控制的情况下,针对中央峡谷浊积水道储层,采用确定性建模与连续型随机建模相结合的方法,建立碎屑岩储层地震地质模型,应用地震正演模拟和相似性分析方法,确定浊积水道砂体最佳模拟参数.文章首先分析了碎屑岩储层特征,应用连续型随机建模的方法模拟储层空间分布.然后分析实际地震、地质资料,应用层序地层学思想,对研究区划分沉积体系域,建立层序地层格架;基于波阻抗和多种地震属性,采用人机交互的方法对浊积水道储层框架结构进行精细解释,建立储层结构模型;将储层结构模型与砂泥互层随机介质进行"交"、"并"运算,利用连续型随机模拟方法对储层内部介质进行精细刻画,建立中央峡谷浊积水道随机介质储层模型;通过对模型正演模拟、常规处理和相似性分析等建立最佳储层模型.文章研究了在无井条件下建立储层地震地质模型的方法,揭示南海西北部深水区中央峡谷浊积水道储层的空间展布和内部结构特征.     

基于局部直方图规定化的相干体增强

Coherence analysis is a powerful tool in seismic interpretation for imaging geological discontinuities such as faults and fractures. However, subtle faults or fractures of one stratum are difficult to be distinguished on coherence sections (time slices or profiles) due to interferences from adjacent strata, especially these with strong reflectivity. In this paper, we propose a coherence enhancement method which applies local histogram specification (LHS) techniques to enhance subtle faults or fractures in the coherence cubes. Unlike the traditional histogram specification (HS) algorithm, our method processes 3D coherence data without discretization. This method partitions a coherence cube into many sub-blocks and self-adaptively specifies the target distribution in each block based on the whole distribution of the coherence cube. Furthermore, the neighboring blocks are partially overlapped to reduce the edge effect. Applications to real datasets show that the new method enhances the details of subtle faults and fractures noticeably.     

Scenario-Based Seismic Risk Analysis: An Engineering Approach to the Development of Source and Site-Specific Ground Motion Time Histories in Areas of Low Seismicity

Modern engineering design methods require ground motion time histories as input for non-linear dynamic structural analysis. Non-linear dynamic methods of analysis are increasingly applied in the context of probabilistic risk assessments and for cost-effective design of critical infrastructures. In current engineering practice artificial time histories matching deterministic design spectra or probabilistic uniform hazard spectra are most frequently used for engineering analysis. The intermediate step of generation of response spectra can lead to a biased estimate of the potential damage from earthquakes because of insufficient consideration of the true energy content and strong motion duration of earthquakes. Thus, assessment of seismic risk may seem unrealistic. An engineering approach to the development of three-component ground motion time histories has been established which enables consideration of the typical characteristics of seismic sources, regional ground motion attenuation, and the main geotechnical characteristics of the target site. Therefore, the approach is suitable for use in scenario-based risk analysis a larger number of time histories are required for representation of the seismic hazard. Near-field effects are implemented in the stochastic source model using engineering approximations. The approach is suggested for use in areas of low seismicity where ground motion records of larger earthquakes are not available. Uncertainty analysis indicates that ground motions generated by individual earthquakes are well constrained and that the usual lognormal model is not the best choice for predicting the upper tail of the distribution of the ground motions.     

Chaotic seismic faulting with a mass-spring model and velocity-weakening friction

We present a systematic analysis of the dynamical behavior introduced by fault zone heterogeneities, using a simple mass-spring model with velocity-weakening friction. The model consists of two sliding blocks coupled to each other and to a constant velocity driver by clastic springs. The state of this system can be characterized by the positions of the two blocks relative to the driver. Symmetry stabilizes the system and generates only cyclic behavior. For an asymmetric system where the frictional forces for the two blocks are not equal, the solutions exhibit chaotic behavior. The transition from stable cyclic behavior to chaos is characterized by the period-doubling route to chaos. Lyapunov exponents are computed to quantify the deterministic chaos and to locate the onset of the chaotic evolution in parameter space. In many examples of deterministic chaos, chaotic behavior of a low-order system implies chaos in similar higher order systems. Thus, our results provide substantial evidence that crustal deformation is an example of deterministic chaos.     

A stochastic model reduction method for nonlinear unconfined flow with multiple random input fields

In this paper we present a stochastic model reduction method for efficiently solving nonlinear unconfined flow problems in heterogeneous random porous media. The input random fields of flow model are parameterized in a stochastic space for simulation. This often results in high stochastic dimensionality due to small correlation length of the covariance functions of the input fields. To efficiently treat the high-dimensional stochastic problem, we extend a recently proposed hybrid high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) technique to high-dimensional problems with multiple random input fields and integrate it with a sparse grid stochastic collocation method (SGSCM). Hybrid HDMR can decompose the high-dimensional model into a moderate M-dimensional model and a few one-dimensional models. The moderate dimensional model only depends on the most M important random dimensions, which are identified from the full stochastic space by sensitivity analysis. To extend the hybrid HDMR, we consider two different criteria for sensitivity test. Each of the derived low-dimensional stochastic models is solved by the SGSCM. This leads to a set of uncoupled deterministic problems at the collocation points, which can be solved by a deterministic solver. To demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method, a few numerical experiments are carried out for the unconfined flow problems in heterogeneous porous media with different correlation lengths. The results show that a good trade-off between computational complexity and approximation accuracy can be achieved for stochastic unconfined flow problems by selecting a suitable number of the most important dimensions in the M-dimensional model of hybrid HDMR.     

A rapid method for simulating three-dimensional fluvial terrain

A rapid, computer-based method of simulating ‘geomorphologically-sensible’ three-dimensional terrain data by modelling landform morphology is presented. For some engineering applications such an approach, even in a simple form, is preferable to the synthesis of terrain data by purely stochastic methods, and additionally can be useful where real data sets are difficult to obtain. The approach adopted utilizes a computer program which models landscape evolution by establishing a stream network on a tilted surface, with accompanying fluvial downcutting and slope adjustment. This is achieved by an iterative mechanism that combines deterministic and stochastic processes with geomorphological theory. The end-product is a matrix of high-resolution altitude data that has been used as the terrain model for a vehicle simulation exercise.     

Enhancing tidal prediction accuracy in a deterministic model using chaos theory

The classical deterministic approach to tidal prediction is based on barotropic or baroclinic models with prescribed boundary conditions from a global model or measurements. The prediction by the deterministic model is limited by the precision of the prescribed initial and boundary conditions. Improvement to the knowledge of model formulation would only marginally increase the prediction accuracy without the correct driving forces. This study describes an improvement in the forecasting capability of the tidal model by combining the best of a deterministic model and a stochastic model. The latter is overlaid on the numerical model predictions to improve the forecast accuracy. The tidal prediction is carried out using a three-dimensional baroclinic model and, error correction is instigated using a stochastic model based on a local linear approximation. Embedding theorem based on the time lagged embedded vectors is the basis for the stochastic model. The combined model could achieve an efficiency of 80% for 1 day tidal forecast and 73% for a 7 day tidal forecast as compared to the deterministic model estimation.     

INVERSION METHODS FOR τ-p MAPS OF NEAR OFFSET DATA—LINEAR INVERSION*

Conventional velocity analysis, based on the ideas of rms velocity and hyperbolic reflection events in the x-t domain, is restricted in validity to near vertical incidence. Thus analysis of near-offset datasets usually requires the muting of wide-angle reflections from shallow interfaces before the rms velocities are determined. The ray-theoretical integral for the delay time τ, which depends on the slowness p and the velocity function, is valid for all angles. The wide-angle reflections can be used to improve the accuracy of the derived velocity function in the near surface region, if the recorded x-t data are mapped into the τ-p domain. By representing the velocity function between reflectors as a series of gradient zones, i.e. regions with a uniform increase in velocity with depth, the recovery of the velocities may be posed as a matrix linear inverse problem for the slopes of the gradient zones. In order to convert the problem to a linear one, the velocity discontinuities at the reflecting interfaces must be fixed in advance. Their positions are based on the behaviour of the τ-p map of the data. Finding a stable velocity model may require several iterations with the reflecting interfaces at different positions. An understanding of the workings of the inversion algorithm allied with an analysis of the causes of instability aids the search for a stable model.