The climate of Europe 6000 years ago

Palaeoclimates across Europe for 6000 y BP were estimated from pollen data using the modern pollen analogue technique constrained with lake-level data. The constraint consists of restricting the set of modern pollen samples considered as analogues of the fossil samples to those locations where the implied change in annual precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P–E) is consistent with the regional change in moisture balance as indicated by lakes. An artificial neural network was used for the spatial interpolation of lake-level changes to the pollen sites, and for mapping palaeoclimate anomalies. The climate variables reconstructed were mean temperature of the coldest month (T _c ), growing degree days above 5  °C (GDD), moisture availability expressed as the ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration (α), and P–E. The constraint improved the spatial coherency of the reconstructed palaeoclimate anomalies, especially for P–E. The reconstructions indicate clear spatial and seasonal patterns of Holocene climate change, which can provide a quantitative benchmark for the evaluation of palaeoclimate model simulations. Winter temperatures (T _c ) were 1–3 K greater than present in the far N and NE of Europe, but 2–4 K less than present in the Mediterranean region. Summer warmth (GDD) was greater than present in NW Europe (by 400–800 K day at the highest elevations) and in the Alps, but >400 K day less than present at lower elevations in S Europe. P–E was 50–250 mm less than present in NW Europe and the Alps, but α was 10–15% greater than present in S Europe and P–E was 50–200 mm greater than present in S and E Europe. Received: 3 January 1996 / Accepted: 15 July 1996     

Glacial termination: sensitivity to orbital and CO2 forcing in a coupled climate system model

 To study glacial termination and related feedback mechanisms, a continental ice dynamics model is globally and asynchronously coupled to a physical climate (atmosphere-ocean-sea ice) model. The model performs well under present-day, 11 kaBP (thousand years before present) and 21 kaBP perpetual forcing. To address the ice-sheet response under the effects of both perpetual orbital and CO₂ forcing, sensitivity experiments are conducted with two different orbital configurations (11 kaBP and 21 kaBP) and two different atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (200 ppmv and 280 ppmv). This study reveals that, although both orbital and CO₂ forcing have an impact on ice-sheet maintenance and deglacial processes, and although neither acting alone is sufficient to lead to complete deglaciation, orbital forcing seems to be more important. The CO₂ forcing has a large impact on climate, not uniformly or zonally over the globe, but concentrated over the continents adjacent to the North Atlantic. The effect of increased CO₂ (from 200 ppmv to 280 ppmv) on surface air temperature has its peak there in winter associated with a reduction in sea-ice extent in the northern North Atlantic. These changes are accompanied by an enhancement in the intensity of the meridional overturning and poleward ocean heat transport in the North Atlantic. On the other hand, the effect of orbital forcing (from 21 kaBP to 11 kaBP) has its peak in summer. Since the summer temperature, rather than winter temperature, is found to be dominant for the ice-sheet mass balance, orbital forcing has a larger effect than CO₂ forcing in deglaciation. Warm winter sea surface temperature arising from increased CO₂ during the deglaciation contributes to ice-sheet nourishment (negative feedback for ice-sheet retreat) through slightly enhanced precipitation. However, the precipitation effect is totally overwhelmed by the temperature effect. Our results suggest that the last deglaciation was initiated through increasing summer insolation with CO₂ providing a powerful feedback. Received: 22 February 2000 / Accepted: 17 September 2000     

Key results and implications from phase 1(c) of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parametrization Schemes

 Using atmospheric forcing data generated from a general circulation climate model, sixteen land surface schemes participating in the Project for the Intercomparison of Land-surface Parametrization Schemes (PILPS) were run off-line to equilibrium using forcing data from a GCM representative of a tropical forest and a mid-latitude grassland grid point. The values for each land surface parameter (roughness length, minimum stomatal resistance, soil depth etc.) were provided. Results were quality controlled and analyzed, focusing on the scatter simulated amongst the models. There were large differences in how the models’ partitioned available energy between sensible and latent heat. Annually averaged, simulations for the tropical forest ranged by 79 1 3;W m^-2 for the sensible heat flux and 80 W m^-2 for the latent heat flux. For the grassland, simulations ranged by 34 W m^-2 for the sensible heat flux and 27 W m^-2 for the latent heat flux. Similarly large differences were found for simulated runoff and soil moisture and at the monthly time scale. The models’ simulation of annually averaged effective radiative temperature varied with a range, between all the models, of 1.4 K for tropical forest and 2.2 K for the grassland. The simulation of latent and sensible heat fluxes by a standard ‘bucket’ models was anomalous although this could be corrected by an additional resistance term. These results imply that the current land surface models do not agree on the land surface climate when the atmospheric forcing and surface parameters are prescribed. The nature of the experimental design, it being offline and with artificial forcing, generally precludes judgements concerning the relative quality of any specific model. Although these results were produced de-coupled from a host model, they do cast doubt on the reliability of land surface schemes. It is therefore a priority to resolve the disparity in the simulations, understand the reasons behind the scatter and to determine whether this lack of agreement in de-coupled tests is reproduced in coupled experiments. Received: 15 October 1997 / Accepted: 22 April 1999     

A Measurement Based Sensitivity Analysis of the Penman-Monteith Actual Evapotranspiration Model for Crops of Different Height and in Contrasting Water Status

Summary This paper presents a study of the sensibility of the Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration model to climatic (available energy and vapour pressure deficit) and parametric (aerodynamic and canopy resistances, r _a and r _c respectively) factors in a semi-arid climate, for crops in contrasting water status (well irrigated and under water stress) and of different heights. Three experiments were carried out in southern Italy on reference grass (≈ 0.1 m), grain sorghum (≈ 1 m) and sweet sorghum (≈ 3 m). For this analysis the sensitivity coefficients, taken as hourly means, were evaluated during the growth season when the crops completely covered the soil. The relative errors on evapotranspiration were also evaluated for r _a and r _c . The results showed that, for reference grass, available energy and aerodynamic resistance play a major role. For crops under water stress the most important term to evaluate is canopy resistance. For a tall crop, as sweet sorghum, the role of the vapour pressure deficit is fundamental, both when the crop is in good water status and under water stress. Received July 14, 1997 Revised February 5, 1998     

The diurnal cycle of surface air temperature in simulated present and doubled CO2 climates

 The diurnal range of surface air temperature (rT _a ) simulated for present and doubled CO₂ climates by the CSIRO9 GCM is analysed. Based on mean diurnal cycles of temperature and surface heat fluxes, a theory for understanding the results is developed. The cycles are described as the response to a diurnal forcing which is represented well by the diurnal mean flux of net shortwave radiation at the surface (SW) minus the evaporative (E) and sensible (H) fluxes. The response is modified by heat absorbed by the ground, and by the cycle in downward longwave (LW) radiation, but these effects are nearly proportional to the range in surface temperature. Thus in seasonal means, rT _a is approximately given by SW–E–H divided by 6 W m^-2/^°C. A multiple regression model for (rT _a ) is developed, based on quantities known to influence SW, E and H, and applied to both spatial variation in seasonal means, and day-to-day variation at a range of locations. In both cases, rT _a is shown to be influenced by cloud cover, snow extent and wind speed. It is influenced by soil moisture, although this effect is closely tied to that of cloud. In seasonal means rT _a is also well correlated with precipitable water, apparently because of the latter’s influence on E+H. The regression model describes well the spatial variation in the doubled CO₂ change in rT _a . The annual mean change in rT _a over land on doubling CO₂ was −0.36 ^°C, partly because of a decrease in the mean diurnal forcing (as defined in the theory), but also apparently because of the effect of nonlinearity in T _s of the upward longwave emission. A diagnostic radiation calculation indicates that the CO₂ and water vapour provide a small increase in rT _a through the downward LW response, which partially counters a decrease due to a reduction of SW by the gases. Received: 8 November 1995 / Accepted: 3 January 1997     

The potential of vegetation feedback to alleviate climate aridity over the United States associated with a 2×CO2 climate condition

This study examines the potential impact of vegetation feedback on changes in summer climate aridity over the contiguous United States (US) due to the doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration using a set of 100-year-long climate simulations made by a global climate model interactively coupled with a dynamic vegetation model. The Thornthwaite moisture index (I _m ), which quantifies climate aridity on the basis of atmospheric water supply (i.e., precipitation) and atmospheric water demand (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, PET), is used to measure climate aridity. Warmer atmosphere and drier surface resulting from increased CO₂ concentration increase climate aridity over most of the contiguous US. This phenomenon is due to larger increments in PET than in precipitation, regardless of the presence or absence of vegetation feedback. Compared to simulations without active dynamic vegetation feedback, the presence of vegetation feedback significantly alleviates the increase in aridity. This vegetation-feedback effect is most noticeable in the subhumid regions such as southern, midwestern and northwestern US, primarily by the increasing vegetation greenness. In these regions, the greening in response to warmer temperatures enhances moisture transfer from soil to atmosphere by evapotranspiration (ET). The increased ET and subsequent moistening over land areas result in weaker surface warming (1–2?K) and PET (3–10?mm?month^?1), and greater precipitation (4–10?mm?month^?1). Collectively, they result in moderate increases in I _m . Our results suggest that moistening by enhanced vegetation feedback may prevent aridification under climatic warming especially in areas vulnerable to climate change, with consequent implications for mitigation strategies.     

Aridity and the Potential Physiological Response of C 3 Crops to Doubled Atmospheric Co 2 : A Simple Demonstration of the Sensitivity of the Canadian Prairies

Since cultivated annual C₃ field crops cover about50% of the land surface of the Canadian Prairie grassland eco-climatic zone, this vegetationinfluences the aridity of the climate during the growing season. The physiological response of these cropsto a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ may be a doubling of canopyresistance. If this physiological effect is not counteracted by interactive feedbacks, such as increasedleaf area, evapotranspiration rates could be reduced. To demonstrate the sensitivity of thearidity of the Prairie climate to this potential physiological effect, representative spring wheatgrowing-season soil moisture and Bowen ratio curves for a doubled canopy resistance(2 × CO₂) scenario were compared with a control (1 × CO₂) scenario.Lower evapotranspiration in the 2 × CO₂ scenario: (1) Increased root-zone soilmoisture levels, and (2) weakened the atmospheric component of the hydrologic cycle by raisingBowen ratios, which reduces the convective available energy, and reduces the regionalcontribution to the atmospheric water vapour over the Prairies. A weakened hydrologic cycleimplies less rainfall, and possibly, lower soil moisture levels. Thus, the net impact of a doublingof the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ on the aridity of the Canadian Prairies is uncertain.This simple sensitivity demonstration did not consider most of the potential feedback mechanisms,nor interactions of other processes. Nevertheless, the result illustrates that the physiologicaleffect should be explicitly included in climate change models for the Canadian Prairies.     

Potential future changes in water limitations of the terrestrial biosphere

This study explores the effects of atmospheric CO₂ enrichment and climate change on soil moisture (W _r ) and biome-level water limitation (L _TA), using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model forced by five different scenarios of change in temperature, precipitation, radiation, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, all based on the same IS92a emission scenario. L _TA is defined as an index that quantifies the degree to which transpiration and photosynthesis are co-limited by soil water shortage (high values indicate low water limitation). Soil moisture decreases in many regions by 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990, though the regional pattern of change differs substantially among the scenarios due primarily to differences in GCM-specific precipitation changes. In terms of L _TA, ecosystems in northern temperate latitudes are at greatest risk of increasing water limitation, while in most other latitudes L _TA tends to increase (but again varies the regional pattern of change among the scenarios). The frequently opposite direction of change in W _r and L _TA suggests that decreases in W _r are not necessarily felt by actual vegetation, which is attributable mainly to the physiological vegetation response to elevated CO₂. Without this beneficial effect, the sign of change in L _TA would be reversed from predominantly positive to predominantly negative.     

Atmospheric inorganic nitrogen in marine aerosol and precipitation and its deposition to the North and South Pacific Oceans

Aerosol and rain samples were collected between 48°N and 55°S during the KH-08-2 and MR08-06 cruises conducted over the North and South Pacific Ocean in 2008 and 2009, to estimate dry and wet deposition fluxes of atmospheric inorganic nitrogen (N). Inorganic N in aerosols was composed of ~68% NH₄⁺ and ~32% NO₃^– (median values for all data), with ~81% and ~45% of each species being present on fine mode aerosol, respectively. Concentrations of NH₄⁺ and NO₃⁻ in rainwater ranged from 1.7–55 μmol L⁻¹ and 0.16–18 μmol L⁻¹, respectively, accounting for ~87% by NH₄⁺ and ~13% by NO₃⁻ of total inorganic N (median values for all data). A significant correlation (r = 0.74, p < 0.05, n = 10) between NH₄⁺ and methanesulfonic acid (MSA) was found in rainwater samples collected over the South Pacific, whereas no significant correlations were found between NH₄⁺ and MSA in rainwater collected over the subarctic (r = 0.42, p > 0.1, n = 6) and subtropical (r = 0.33, p > 0.5, n = 6) western North Pacific, suggesting that emissions of ammonia (NH₃) by marine biological activity from the ocean could become a significant source of NH₄⁺ over the South Pacific. While NO₃⁻ was the dominant inorganic N species in dry deposition, inorganic N supplied to surface waters by wet deposition was predominantly by NH₄⁺ (42–99% of the wet deposition fluxes for total inorganic N). We estimated mean total (dry + wet) deposition fluxes of atmospheric total inorganic N in the Pacific Ocean to be 32–64 μmol m⁻² d⁻¹, with 66–99% of this by wet deposition, indicating that wet deposition plays a more important role in the supply of atmospheric inorganic N than dry deposition.     

Airborne measurements of turbulent fluxes during LITFASS-98: Comparison with ground measurements and remote sensing in a case study

Summary ?Simultaneous flight measurements with the research aircraft Do 128 and the helicopter-borne turbulence probe Helipod were performed on 18 June 1998 during the LITFASS-98 field experiment. The area-averaged turbulent vertical fluxes of momentum, sensible, and latent heat were determined on a 15 km × 15 km and a 10 km × 10 km flight pattern, respectively. The flights were carried out over heterogeneous terrain at different altitudes within a moderately convective boundary layer with Cumulus clouds. Co-spectra-analysis demonstrated that the small scale turbulent transport was completely sampled, while the comparatively small flight patterns were possibly of critical size regarding the large-scale turbulence. The phygoide of the airplane was identified as a significant peak in some co-spectra. The turbulent fluxes of momentum and sensible heat at 80 m above the ground showed systematic dependence on the location of the flight legs above the heterogeneous terrain. This was not observed for the latent heat flux, probably due to the vertical distribution of humidity in the boundary layer. Statistical error analysis of the fluxes F showed that the systematic statistical error ΔF was one order of magnitude smaller than the standard deviation σ _F . The difference between area-averaged fluxes derived from simultaneous Helipod and Do 128 measurements was much smaller than σ _F , indicating that the systematic statistical error was possibly over-estimated by the usual method. In the upper half of the boundary layer the airborne-measured sensible heat flux agreed well with windprofiler/RASS data. A linear fit was the best approximation for the height dependence of all three fluxes. The linear extrapolations of the latent and sensible heat fluxes to the ground were in good agreement with tower, scintillometer, and averaged ground-station measurements on various surface types. Systematic discrepancies between airborne and ground-based measurements were not found. Received June 18, 2001; revised December 21, 2001; accepted June 3, 2002     

The modification of greenhouse gas warming by the direct effect of sulphate aerosols

 The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) second generation climate model (GCMII) consists of an atmospheric GCM coupled to mixed layer ocean. It is used to investigate the climate response to a doubling of the CO₂ concentration together with the direct effect of scattering by sulphate aerosols. As expected, the aerosols offset some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming; the global annual mean screen temperature change due to doubled CO₂ is 3.4 °C in this model and this is reduced to 2.7 °C when an estimate of the direct effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosols is included. The pattern of climate response to the comparatively localized aerosol forcing is not itself localized, and it bears a striking resemblance to the response pattern that arises from the globally distributed change in GHG forcing. This “non-local” response to “localized” forcing indicates that the pattern of climate response is determined, to first order, by the overall magnitude of the change in forcing rather than its detailed nature or structure. Feedback processes operating in the system apparently determine this pattern by locally amplifying and suppressing the response to the magnitude of the change in forcing. The influence of the location of the change in forcing is relatively small. These “non-local” and “local” effects of aerosol forcing are characterized and displayed and some of their consequences discussed. Effects on the moisture budget and on the energetics of the global climate are also examined. Received: 10 June 1997 / Accepted: 8 January 1998     

Flux-Variance Method for Latent Heat and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes in Unstable Conditions

Applied previously to momentum and heat fluxes, the present study extends the flux-variance method to latent heat and CO₂ fluxes in unstable conditions. Scalar similarity is also examined among temperature (θ), water vapour (q), and CO₂ (c). Temperature is adopted as the reference scalar, leading to two feasible strategies to estimate latent heat and CO₂ fluxes: the first one relies on flux-variance similarity relations for scalars, while the second is based on the parameterization of relative transport efficiency in terms of scalar correlation coefficient and a non-dimensional quantity. The relationship between the θ-to-q transport efficiency (λ _{θ q} ) and θ-q correlation coefficient (R _{θ q} ) is used to describe the intermediate hydrological conditions. We also parameterize the θ-to-c transport efficiency (λ _{θ c} ) as a function of the θ-c correlation coefficient (R _{θ c} ) by introducing a new non-dimensional ratio (α). The flux-variance method is a viable technique for flux gap-filling, when turbulence measurements of wind velocity are not available. It is worth noting that the extended method is not exempt from a correction for density effects when used for estimating water or carbon exchange.     

Vertical Structure of Selected Turbulence Characteristics above an Urban Canopy

Summary In this paper the results of an urban measurement campaign are presented. The experiment took place from July 1995 to February 1996 in Basel, Switzerland. A total of more than 2000 undisturbed 30-minute runs of simultaneous measurements of the fluctuations of the wind vector u′, v′, w′ and the sonic temperature θ _s ′ at three different heights (z=36, 50 and 76 m a.g.l.) are analysed with respect to the integral statistics and their spectral behaviour. Estimates of the zero plane displacement height d calculated by the temperature variance method yield a value of 22 m for the two lower levels, which corresponds to 0.92 h (the mean height of the roughness elements). At all three measurement heights the dimensionless standard deviation σ _w /u _* is systematically smaller than the Monin-Obukhov similarity function for the inertial sublayer, however, deviations are smaller compared to other urban turbulence studies. The σ_θ/θ_* values follow the inertial sublayer prediction very close for the two lowest levels, while at the uppermost level significant deviations are observed. Profiles of normalized velocity and temperature variances show a clear dependence on stability. The profile of friction velocity u _* is similar to the profiles reported in other urban studies with a maximum around z/h=2.1. Spectral characteristics of the wind components in general show a clear dependence on stability and dimensionless measurement height z/h with a shift of the spectral peak to lower frequencies as thermal stability changes from stable to unstable conditions and as z/h decreases. Velocity spectra follow the −2/3 slope in the inertial subrange region and the ratios of spectral energy densities S _w (f)/S _u (f) approach the value of 4/3 required for local isotropy in the inertial subrange. Velocity spectra and spectral peaks fit best to the well established surface layer spectra from Kaimal et al. (1972) at the uppermost level at z/h=3.2. Received September 26, 1997 Revised February 15, 1998     

Surface energy- and water balance in a high-arcticenvironment in NE Greenland

Summary  Within the framework of the European LAPP-project (Land Arctic Physical Processes) and as part of the Danish Research Council’s Polar Programme, studies on water- and surface energy balance in NE Greenland were conducted in 1996 and 1997. Eddy correlation measurements of water vapour and sensible heat fluxes above the three dominant vegetation types: fen, willow snowbed, and heath were conducted for the entire growing season. This was supplemented by measurements of evaporation from snow covered areas and from a small pond. The evapotranspiration was found to be relatively high with the maximum from the fen (≈86 mm per season). For the two other vegetation types the evapotranspiration was less, for heath 61 mm per season, while willow snowbed had evaporation rates on intermediate level. By use of the Penman-Monteith equation it was possible to estimate the altitude dependence of the evapotranspiration and calculate the annual evaporation for the whole area to 80 mm per year. By applying a bucket model the evaporation was found to be in accordance with changes in soil moisture as monitored with TDR. The observed surface water balance was compared to river discharge, which shows a glacio-nival regime with an early spring flow (June), determined by the snow melt in the main valley and an July–August maximum determined by melt on higher plateau areas. When balancing the individual hydrological components an annual deficit of 180 mm was observed, but it was found that this deficit could be reduced by correcting for aerodynamic and altitude effects on the precipitation. Finally some of the possible consequences of a global warming is discussed in relation to the water and energy balance in the high-arctic ecosystem. Received November 1, 1999 Revised May 15, 2000     

Characteristics of the atmospheric heat source and moisture sink over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the second TIPEX of summer 1998 and their impact on surrounding monsoon

Summary ?Using the data of 6 automatic heat balance observation (AWS) stations and a data set of 52 surface observation stations over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (“the Plateau”) and surroundings, the horizontal distribution is studied of “apparent atmospheric heat sources” 〈Q ₁〉 and of “apparent atmospheric moisture sinks” 〈Q ₂〉. The AWS stations were established during the period May to August 1998 of the Tibetan Plateau Meteorological Experiment (second TIPEX) by a cooperation of China and Japan. For this period the Plateau mean of 〈Q ₁〉 is positive. Its value of 74 W/m² is a little greater than a climate value and than values from MONEX and the first TIPEX in 1979, respectively. Also the corresponding 〈Q ₂〉 is positive. Hence during that time the Plateau is a heat source and a moisture sink. A day-to-day change of 〈Q ₁〉 and 〈Q ₂〉 is more pronounced over the middle and east part of the Plateau than over the west part. Diagnostics accompanied by numerical simulations are used to study the daily relationship between 〈Q ₁〉 over the Plateau and the weather over China and Asia for this summer. The results suggest that 〈Q ₁〉 may affect precipitation over northern China and position of the west Pacific subtropical high. Abnormal southward retreat of this Pacific high seems to have caused the second flood over the middle and lower Yangtse river basin in July. Received May 20, 2001; revised February 2, 2002     

A Comparative Study of the Atmospheric Layers below First Lifting Condensation Level for Instantaneous Pre-Monsoon Thunderstorm Occurrence at Agartala (23o30’N, 91o15’E) and Ranchi (23o14’N, 85o14’E) of India

An attempt has been made to investigate the role of vertical wind shear, corrective instability and the thermodynamic parameter (θes - θe) below the first lifting condensation level (FLCL) in the occurrence of instanta-neous premonsoon thunderstorm over Agartala (AGT) and Ranchi (RNC) at 12 GMT Radiosonde data of 1988 have been utilized here. The study has however been confined to 1000 hPa-500 hPa range at most Here the convectively unstable layers with positive vertical wind shear upto 500 hPa have been termed as ‘Fa?vourable Layers’ (FL) and the level at which an initially stable layer turns out to be convectively unstable for the first time has been termed as ‘Transition Level’ (TL). It is observed that the changes in vertical wind shear are positive at TL at the time of occurrence of thunderstorm (TS) and the corresponding change is negative on fair-weather situa?tion Moreover, the 90% confidence interval for (θes - θe) reveals that for AGT the upper layer thermodynamic characteristic is important at the time of occurrence of TS whereas for RNC, the value of (θes - θe) at the surface is much more effective     

Internal Variability as a Cause of Qualitative Intermodel Disagreement on Anthropogenic Climate Changes

Summary The qualitative agreement of two climate models, HADCM2 and ECHAM3, on the response of surface climate to anthropogenic climate forcing in the period 2020 – 2049 is studied. Special attention is paid to the role of internal climate variability as a source of intermodel disagreement. After illustrating the methods in an intermodel comparison of simulated changes in June–August mean precipitation, some global statistics are presented. Excluding surface air temperature, the four-season mean proportion of areas in which the two models agree on the sign of the climatic response is only 53 – 60% both for increases in CO₂ alone and for increases in CO₂ together with direct radiative forcing by sulphate aerosols, but somewhat larger, 59 – 70% for the separate aerosol effect. In areas where the response is strong (at least twice the standard error associated with internal variability) in both models, the agreement is better and the contrast between the different forcings becomes more marked. The proportion of agreement in such areas is 57 – 75% for the response to increases in CO₂ alone, 64 – 84% for the response to combined CO₂ and aerosol forcing, and as high as 88 – 94% for the separate aerosol effect. The relatively good intermodel agreement for aerosol-induced climate changes is suggested to be associated with the uneven horizontal distribution of aerosol forcing. Received December 2, 1998 Revised May 5, 1999     

The atmospheric sulfur cycle in ECHAM-4 and its impact on the shortwave radiation

 The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4 is coupled to a chemistry model to calculate sulfate mass distribution and the radiative forcing due to sulfate aerosol particles. The model simulates the main components of the hydrological cycle and, hence, it allows an explicit treatment of cloud transformation processes and precipitation scavenging. Two experiments are performed, one with pre-industrial and one with present-day sulfur emissions. In the pre-industrial emission scenario SO₂ is oxidized faster to sulfate and the in-cloud oxidation via the reaction with ozone is more important than in the present-day scenario. The atmospheric sulfate mass due to anthropogenic emissions is estimated as 0.38 Tg sulfur. The radiative forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is calculated diagnostically. The backscattering of shortwave radiation (direct effect) as well as the impact of sulfate aerosols on the cloud albedo (indirect effect) is estimated. The model predicts a direct forcing of −0.35 W m^-2 and an indirect forcing of −0.76 W m^-2. Over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere the direct forcing amounts to −0.64 W m^-2. The geographical distribution of the direct and indirect effect is very different. Whereas the direct forcing is strongest over highly polluted continental regions, the indirect forcing over sea exceeds that over land. It is shown that forcing estimates based on monthly averages rather than on instantaneous sulfate pattern overestimate the indirect effect but have little effect on the direct forcing. Received: 16 October 1996/Accepted: 24 October 1996     

A Parameterization of Bowen Ratio with Respect to Soil Moisture Availability

The Bowen ratio (B) is impacted by 5 environmental elements: soil moisture availability, m, the ratio of resist-ances between atmosphere and soil pores, ra/rd, atmospheric relative humidity, h, atmospheric stability, ΔT, and environment temperature. These impacts have been investigated over diverse surfaces, including bare soil, free water surface, and vegetation covered land, using an analytical approach. It was concluded that: (a) B is not a continuous function. The singularity exists at the condition αhcb=h, occurring preferably in the following conditions: weak turbulence, stable stratified stability, dry soil, and humid air, where hcb, defined by Eq.(11) is a critical variable. The existence of a singularity makes the dependence of B on the five variables very complicated. The value of B approaches being inversely proportional to m under the conditions m≥mfc (the soil capacity) and / or ra/rd→0. The proportional coefficient changes with season and latitude with relatively high values in winter and over the poles; (b) B is nearly independent of ra/rd during the day. The impact of m on B is much larger as compared to that of ra/rd on B, (c) when h increases, the absolute value of B also increases; (d) over bare soil, when the absolute surface net radiation increases, the absolute value of B will increase. The impact of RN on B is larger at night than during the day, and (e) over plant canopy, the singularity and the dependcies of B on m, ra , and h are modified as compared to that over bare soil. Also (i) during the daytime unstable condition, m exerts an even stronger impact on B, at night, however, B changes are weak in response to the change in m; (ii) the value of B is much more sensitive in response to the changes of turbulent intensity; (iii) the B response to the variation of h over a vegetation covered area is weaker; and (iv) the singularity exists at the condition hcp=h instead of αhcb=h as over bare soil, where hcp is defined by Eq.(49). The formulas derived over bare soil also hold the same when applied to free water bodies as long as they are visualized as a special soil in which the volumetric fraction of soil pore is equal to one and are fully filled with water. Finally, the above discussions, are used to briefly study the impact on the thermally induced mesoscale circulations.