Spatiotemporal Pattern of Cultivated Land Pressure and Its Influencing Factors in the Huaihai Economic Zone,China

Cultivated land pressure represents a direct reflection of grain security. Existing relevant studies rarely approached the spatiotemporal pattern of cultivated land pressure or the spatial heterogeneity of its influencing factors from the level of economic zones.Taking the Huaihai Economic Zone(HEZ), China for case analysis, this study investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of cultivated land pressure in diverse periods from 2000 to 2018 based on a modified cultivated land pressure index and sp...     

基于地理探测器的中国中部城市土地绿色利用效率时空演变及影响因素研究

中部崛起战略后,中国中部六省（湖北省、湖南省、安徽省、山西省、江西省和河南省）经济快速发展,建成区面积不断扩张,不仅威胁粮食安全,更加剧资源环境约束。在此背景下,本文采用2007—2018年中部六省80个地级市面板数据,并运用Malmquist-Luerberger指数、重心模型、空间计量模型和地理探测器模型分析中部六省80个地级市土地绿色利用效率时演变、重心移动轨迹变化及其影响因素情况。结果表明：① 2007—2018年中部六省土地绿色利用效率增长是靠技术进步“单轨驱动”的。② 城市土地绿色利用效率值表现出明显的空间分异特征,且重心总体向东北方向移动。③ 中部六省各地级市之间土地绿色利用效率存在空间依赖性和空间溢出效应。④ 除城市建设用地面积外,城镇化率、产业结构高级化水平、经济发展水平、外商直接投资额均正向影响中部六省80个地级市土地绿色利用效率。其中,各个影响因素对土地绿色利用效率的影响从强到弱依次为产业结构高级化水平、外商直接投资额、建设用地面积、城镇化率、经济发展水平。     

山东省绿色发展效率时空演化及影响因素分析

运用基于非期望产出的SBM模型,对2007—2017年山东省17地市绿色发展效率进行测度,分析其时空演化特征,进一步构建Tobit模型探究其影响因素。研究表明:2007—2017年山东省各地市间绿色发展效率变化趋势呈现地域差异,东部地区效率提升快于中西部地区,且存在个别地市绿色发展效率下降与个别地市绿色发展效率上升并存的趋势特征。山东省绿色发展效率存在明显的空间分异性,且存在高效率区向东发展,低效率区转向中西部的演化特征。山东省绿色发展效率与经济发展水平之间存在U型曲线关系,且现阶段经济发展水平及城镇化水平对绿色发展具有显著的负向影响,产业结构、对外开放程度及科技创新对绿色发展效率具有显著的正向驱动作用。推动产业结构优化升级,以创新驱动发展,推动更高层次的对外开放是山东省绿色发展提升的重要途径。     

Regional Economic Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitans in China Based on a Heterogeneity Stochastic Frontier Model

Using a heterogeneity stochastic frontier model(HSFM),we empirically investigated the economic efficiency of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2003 to 2016 and its influencing factors.The key findings of the paper lie in:1)in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the overall economic and technological efficiency tended to increase in a wavelike manner,economic growth slowed down,and there was an obvious imbalance in economic efficiency between the different districts,counties and cities;2)the heterogeneity stochastic frontier production functions(SFPFs)of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei were different from each other,and investment was still an important impetus of economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei;3)economic efficiency was positively correlated with economic agglomeration,human capital,industrial structure,infrastructure,the informatization level,and institutional factors,but negatively correlated with the government role and economic opening.The following policy suggestions are offered:1)to improve regional economic efficiency and reduce the economic gap in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,governments must reduce their intervention in economic activities,stimulate the potentials of labor and capital,optimize the structure of human resources,and foster new demographic incentives;2)governments must guide economic factors that are reasonable throughout Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and strengthen infrastructure construction in underdeveloped regions,thus attaining sustainable economic development;3)governments must plan overall economic growth factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and promote reasonable economic factors(e.g.,labor,resources,and innovations)across different regions,thus attaining complementary advantages between Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei.     

Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Green Development Efficiency and Influencing Factors in Restricted Development Zones: A Case Study of Jilin Province,China

Green development is an important issue of sustainable development in China. Due to the relatively backward economy and the fragile ecological environment, restricted development zones need to embrace green development. Taking 38 counties in Jilin Province as the empirical research objects, and based on cross-sectional data for each county in 2005, 2010, and 2015, we accurately depicted the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of green development efficiency(GDE) in restricted development zones of Jilin Province using the slacks-based measure-data envelope analysis(SBM-DEA) model. Moreover, the factors that influence GDE were further analyzed using the Tobit model. We found that: first, GDE showed a V-shaped trend in restricted development zones of Jilin Province. The differences in GDE in the eastern, central, and western Jilin Province increased gradually. Second, 76% of counties in the restricted development zones had high or higher efficiencies. The resource-based cities were the main areas with low or lower GDE. Third, the economic development level was the core factor affecting GDE. Urbanization level had a significant negative effect on GDE in the restricted development zones. The effect of technological innovation level on GDE fluctuated, and we found that a ‘backward mechanism' of technological innovation was beginning to form. Industrial structure and environmental governance had no significant effects on GDE.     

Spatial-temporal Heterogeneity of Green Development Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in Growing Metropolitan Area: A Case Study for the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area

This study analyzed the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of green development efficiency and its influencing factors in the growing Xuzhou Metropolitan Area for the period 2000–2015. The slacks-based measure(SBM) model, spatial autocorrelation, and the geographically weighted regression(GWR) model were used to conduct the analysis. The conclusions were as follows: first, the overall efficiency of green development of the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area decreased, the regional differences and spatial agglomeration shrunk and differences within the region were the main contributors to the regional differences of green development efficiency. Second, the counties with high-efficiency green development were distributed along the coast, and along the routes of the Beijing-Shanghai and the Eastern Longhai railways. A developing axis of the high-efficiency counties was the main feature of the spatial pattern for green development efficiency. Third, regarding spatial correlation and green development efficiency, the High-High type counties in the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area formed a centralized distribution corridor along the inter-provincial border areas of Henan and Jiangsu, whereas the Low-Low type counties were concentrated in the external, marginal parts of the metropolitan area. Fourth, the major factors(ranked in decreasing order of impact) influencing green development efficiency were innovation, government regulations, the economic development level, energy consumption, and industrial structure. These factors exerted their influence to varying extents; the influence of the same factor had different effects in different regions and obvious spatial differences were observed for the different regions.     

利用GRACE监测中国区域干旱及其影响因素分析

利用2003-01~2012-12的GRACE时变地球重力场模型计算我国长江中下游平原、西南地区和华北平原陆地水储量变化的时间序列。结果表明,长江中下游平原和华北平原的陆地水储量变化量最低值在2011-05,西南地区最低值在2010-03。根据陆地水储量变化的水平衡原理计算3个区域地下水储量变化情况。结果表明,长江中下游平原和西南地区地下水储量呈缓慢增长的趋势,增长速率分别为0.54 mm/月和0.34 mm/月;华北地区呈缓慢减小的趋势,减小速率为0.33 mm/月。3个区域干旱时期地下水储量的亏损情况分别为：长江中下游平原-21.31 mm/月,华北平原-19.88 mm/月,西南地区-15.72 mm/月。最后,用NOAA发布的月降雨和气温数据对3个区域干旱期间的降雨量和蒸发量进行量化,分析3次干旱产生的原因。结果表明,西南地区2010年春季干旱的主要原因是气温异常,长江中下游平原和华北平原2011年干旱的主要原因是降雨量偏少。     

Spatiotemporal Variations and Influencing Factors Analysis of PM_(2.5) Concentrations in Jilin Province,Northeast China

High PM_(2.5) concentrations and frequent air pollution episodes during late autumn and winter in Jilin Province have attracted attention in recent years. To describe the spatial and temporal variations of PM_(2.5) concentrations and identify the decisive influencing factors, a large amount of continuous daily PM_(2.5) concentration data collected from 33 monitoring stations over 2-year period from 2015 to 2016 were analyzed. Meanwhile, the relationships were investigated between PM_(2.5) concentrations and the land cover, socioeconomic and meteorological factors from the macroscopic perspective using multiple linear regressions(MLR) approach. PM_(2.5) concentrations across Jilin Province averaged 49 μg/m~3, nearly 1.5 times of the Chinese annual average standard, and exhibited seasonal patterns with generally higher levels during late autumn and over the long winter than the other seasons. Jilin Province could be divided into three kinds of sub-regions according to 2-year average PM_(2.5) concentration of each city. Most of the spatial variation in PM_(2.5) levels could be explained by forest land area, cultivated land area, urban greening rate, coal consumption and soot emissions of cement manufacturing. In addition, daily PM_(2.5) concentrations had negative correlation with daily precipitation and positive correlation with air pressure for each city, and the spread and dilution effect of wind speed on PM_(2.5) was more obvious at mountainous area in Jilin Province. These results indicated that coal consumption, cement manufacturing and straw burning were the most important emission sources for the high PM_(2.5) levels, while afforestation and urban greening could mitigate particulate air pollution. Meanwhile, the individual meteorological factors such as precipitation, air pressure, wind speed and temperature could influence local PM_(2.5) concentration indirectly.     

中国西北地区植被NDVI的时空变化及其影响因子分析

利用GIMMS/NDVI数据分析了中国西北地区1982-2006年植被NDVI时空变化特征及其影响因子。近25年来,中国西北地区年均植被NDVI增速为0.5%/10a,并存在明显的空间差异。天山、阿尔泰山、祁连山、青海的中东部等地区植被NDVI显著增加;青海南部地区、陕西和宁夏交界地区、甘肃部分地区,以及新疆部分地区的植被NDVI下降。从不同植被类型看:林地、草地和耕地的年均NDVI都在提高。研究表明:中国西北地区植被NDVI变化是各种自然和人为因素综合作用的结果。植被NDVI与气温、降水的年际变化整体上都呈弱的正相关。但与其年内变化则都呈显著的线性关系,当月均温量超过20℃时,植被NDVI呈下降趋势;当月降水量在0¹00mm期间,植被NDVI随降水线性增长,当月降水量超过100mm之后,不再有明显的增长趋势。农业生产水平提高和植被生态建设等人类活动对西北地区植被NDVI增加有重要影响。     

黄河流域山东段县域绿色发展效率时空分异及影响因素研究

基于DEASBM模型,运用空间自相关分析和地理探测器软件研究黄河流域山东段县域绿色发展效率的时空分异特征及影响因素。结果表明：2010—2020年黄河流域山东段整体绿色发展效率呈现下降趋势,从最优下降至中等。从时序特征来看,黄河流域山东段县域绿色发展效率变化差异显著,可分为持续降低、持续增长、稳定不变、先升后降、先降后升5种变化类型。从空间分布来看,2010年县域绿色发展效率空间分布呈随机态势,2015年和2020年空间集聚特征较为显著。高—高集聚区与热点区分布具有一致性,低—低集聚区与冷点区分布具有一致性,均主要分布在济南都市圈,且面积不断增大,济南市都市圈县域间绿色发展效率高低分化显著。黄河流域山东段县域绿色发展效率影响因子交互作用呈非线性增强效应。     

陕西省HFRS疫情时空分异特征及影响要素研究

肾综合征出血热（HFRS）主要是由鼠类携带传播汉坦病毒而引起的一类自然疫源性传染病,严重危害着人类健康。陕西省是我国HFRS疫情最严重的省份之一,发病率居全国前列,研究其疫情时空分异和影响要素对指导当地疫情防控具有重要意义。本研究基于2005—2017年县区尺度HFRS发病率数据,采用空间自相关、热点分析等方法分析陕西省疫情时空分异特征,并利用地理探测器探究影响疫情的主要自然环境和社会经济要素。结果表明：2005—2017年陕西省HFRS发病率明显高于全国水平,同时呈现明显的时间波动和空间聚集,平原面积占比、建设用地面积占比、人口密度等因素可以解释约20%的HFRS疫情空间分异;关中平原聚集了陕西省90%以上的高发病县区,其疫情亦呈现明显的空间分异性,主要受降水量、 NDVI、土地利用类型等因素的影响。由此可知,高发病县区聚集、且自然环境和社会经济条件明显不同的关中平原是陕西省HFRS疫情流行的关键地区。因此,建议陕西省HFRS疫情防控应当重点关注降水量、植被状况以及土地利用类型,特别是在土地城镇化水平较高、人口密度较大的关中平原进行有效的防控干预。     

中国旅游产业科技创新能力的时空动态和驱动因素分析

从科技创新的基础、投入、产出和潜力4方面构建了旅游产业科技创新能力结构模型和综合评价指标体系,利用熵值法、线性加权法以及ArcGIS空间分析工具分析评价了2004、2008、2014年中国旅游产业科技创新能力的总体水平、时空动态演化及驱动因素。结果表明：① 2004-2014年,中国旅游产业科技创新能力总体上呈不断提高态势,但空间分布极不均衡,存在明显的地区差异,在趋势上基本表现出东西方向递增,南北方向倒“U”型分布态势;② 中国旅游产业科技创新能力在地理空间上存在着显著而稳定的集聚特征和一定的极化特征,毗邻的区域在旅游科技创新方面存在一定的空间外溢效应;③ 中国旅游产业科技创新能力热点区主要分布在北京、天津和少数东部沿海省份和中部省份,冷点区主要集中在中西部内陆地区的省份;④ 空间残差回归和地理加权回归研究表明,旅游产业基础、空间外溢效应、政策制度因素是驱动中国旅游产业科技创新能力时空变化3个核心因素。     

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Landscape Ecological Vulnerability in the Three-River-Source National Park Region

The increasing impact of global warming and human activities has exacerbated the ecological environment in the Three-RiverSource National Park Region(TNPR). Understanding the temporal and spatial evolution of landscape ecological vulnerability(LEV)and its influencing factors are crucial to the implementation of environmental management. Here, we aimed to: 1) construct a LEV assessment model integrating landscape structure and function; 2) analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of TNPR’s LEV ...     

2005—2018年北京市外来人口迁移特征与影响因素分析

外来人口是大型或超大型城市人口结构的重要组成部分,研究特定城市外来人口的迁移特征及其影响因素不仅有助于从迁入地视角发现以特定城市为目标的人口迁移规律,对新城镇化背景下的城市化建设与发展也具有重要的现实意义。本文以北京市为例,通过收集2005—2018年的公安机关外来人口登记数据,对外来人口在不同年份的市级迁出地空间分布格局进行了研究,并利用空间回归模型对人口迁移的影响因素进行了分析,得到如下发现：① 北京市外来人口的迁出地在市级尺度下表现出明显的空间聚集效应,且聚集效应逐年增强;外来人口迁出地空间分布基本稳定,热点迁出地分布主要集中在河北-天津和河南省南部-湖北省北部2个主要聚集簇中;② 影响人口向北京迁移的主要变量为各迁出地的人口规模、交通时间、人均收入、高等教育水平、人口密度等,其中人口规模和人均收入对人口迁移的影响较为稳定,而高等教育水平和人口密度的影响分别从2010年和2014年后才开始显现,交通时间对人口迁移的障碍性作用虽然有所下降,但对人口迁移的影响变化不大;③ 空间误差项持续显著,表明迁出地的人口迁出量可能受相邻地市的社会文化等其他变量的影响。     

中国东北三省大豆虚拟水时空分异及其影响因素研究

水资源分布不均制约了地区农业生产。从虚拟水角度研究作物需水的时空变化特征及影响因素对提高水资源的合理配置与利用效率,缓解地区水资源短缺问题具有重要参考意义。本文基于Penman-Monteith模型和GIS地统计分析工具,从虚拟水视角分析1986-2012年东北大豆生长季内的需水量变化和虚拟水时空分异特征及其影响因素。结果表明：①1986-2012年,东北地区大豆生长季增温明显,平均风速下降显著,相对湿度整体下降,日照时数有增有减,气候暖干化趋势加剧。②东北大豆生长季内需水量西南多东北少,南部地区需水量减少而北部增加。平均风速的显著下降导致大豆需水量减少,其余气象因子变化均导致需水量增加,温度变化对需水量影响最大,相对贡献率为36.9%,其次为相对湿度、日照时数和平均风速。③大豆虚拟水的空间分布整体为西多东少,虚拟水变化以下降为主（80.6%站点）。虚拟水高值区集中于东北地区西部,向东虚拟水含量降低。气候变化导致了大豆需水量的增加,进而使虚拟水上升,大豆生产变化尤其是单产增长则使得虚拟水下降,气候变化对大豆虚拟水的影响抵消了部分大豆生产变化导致的虚拟水下降。因此,针对大豆虚拟水的时空分异特征,适当调整东北地区大豆的生产布局、选取如耐高温耐旱等大豆品种以及调整灌溉、施肥等田间管理措施等是气候变化背景下提高大豆水资源利用效率的有效适应措施。     

Spatiotemporal Changes in NDVI and Its Driving Factors in the Kherlen River Basin

Vegetation is an important factor linking the atmosphere, water, soil, and biological functions, and it plays a specific role in the climate change response and sustainable development of regional economies. However, little information is available on vegetation vulnerability and its driving mechanism. Therefore, studying temporal and spatial change characteristics of vegetation and their corresponding mechanisms is important for assessing ecosystem stability and formulating ecological policies ...     

甘肃省县域经济差异时空分异及影响因子研究

不同因子对区域经济差异的影响一直是国内外学者关注的重点及热点问题,探究县域经济时间过程演变和空间格局分异的主导影响因子,科学揭示各因子的作用机制,将为区域经济发展战略的制定提供重要指导依据。本文以甘肃省县域为研究单元,利用空间化表达、标准差椭圆分析县域经济空间分异现象,借助多元线性逐步回归和地理探测器对县域经济时空分异影响因素进行探讨。研究结果表明：① 甘肃省县域经济之间的总体差异明显,随时间波动较大;② 县域经济空间分布重心不稳定,变动较大;③ 财政收入、城镇化率和工业产业比重是主导的时间影响因子;④ 铁路密度、公路密度、河流密度是甘肃省县域经济空间分异的主要地理因子,且因子之间的交互作用强于单因子对经济空间分异的作用。在协调县域经济发展过程中,应根据主要影响因素精准实施发展策略,合理利用因子之间的交互作用,加快经济协调发展。     

Spatiotemporal Variations and Influencing Factors Analysis of PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> Concentrations in Jilin Province,Northeast China

High PM_2.5 concentrations and frequent air pollution episodes during late autumn and winter in Jilin Province have attracted attention in recent years. To describe the spatial and temporal variations of PM_2.5 concentrations and identify the decisive influencing factors, a large amount of continuous daily PM_2.5 concentration data collected from 33 monitoring stations over 2-year period from 2015 to 2016 were analyzed. Meanwhile, the relationships were investigated between PM_2.5 concentrations and the land cover, socioeconomic and meteorological factors from the macroscopic perspective using multiple linear regressions (MLR) approach. PM_2.5 concentrations across Jilin Province averaged 49 μg/m³, nearly 1.5 times of the Chinese annual average standard, and exhibited seasonal patterns with generally higher levels during late autumn and over the long winter than the other seasons. Jilin Province could be divided into three kinds of sub-regions according to 2-year average PM_2.5 concentration of each city. Most of the spatial variation in PM_2.5 levels could be explained by forest land area, cultivated land area, urban greening rate, coal consumption and soot emissions of cement manufacturing. In addition, daily PM_2.5 concentrations had negative correlation with daily precipitation and positive correlation with air pressure for each city, and the spread and dilution effect of wind speed on PM_2.5 was more obvious at mountainous area in Jilin Province. These results indicated that coal consumption, cement manufacturing and straw burning were the most important emission sources for the high PM_2.5 levels, while afforestation and urban greening could mitigate particulate air pollution. Meanwhile, the individual meteorological factors such as precipitation, air pressure, wind speed and temperature could influence local PM_2.5 concentration indirectly.     

贵州瓮安玉山煤矿煤质特征及其影响因素

玉山煤矿含煤地层为吴家坪组,可采煤层2层,具有中灰、中等挥发分、高硫分、低磷分、特低—低氯,低砷、高氟,中高发热量的煤质特征,煤类丰富,呈条带状分布。通过对区内沉积环境和煤的变质作用2个方面的分析,阐述了形成煤层高硫、中灰特征的影响因素,解释了煤类分带现象,并指出了主要煤质指标的变化规律。     

中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论：①中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;②以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。③重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;④建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。