Closing the emission price gap

Even without internationally concerted action on climate change mitigation, there are important incentives for countries to put a price on their domestic emissions, including public finance considerations, internalizing the climate impacts of their own emissions, and co-benefits, such as clean air or energy security. Whereas these arguments have been mostly discussed in separate strands of literature, this article carries out a synthesis that exemplifies how policies to put a price on emissions can be conceptualized in a multi-objective framework. Despite considerable uncertainty, empirical evidence suggests that different countries may face quite different incentives for emission pricing. For instance, avoided climate damages and co-benefits of reduced air pollution appear to be the main motivation for emission pricing in China, while for the US generating public revenue dominates and for the EU all three motivations are of intermediate importance. We finally argue that such unilateral incentives could form the basis for incremental progress in international climate negotiations toward a realistic climate treaty based on national interest and differentiated emission pricing and describe how such an agreement could be put into practice.     

Compliance and emission trading rules for asymmetric emission uncertainty estimates

Greenhouse gases emission inventories are computed with rather low precision. Moreover, their uncertainty distributions may be asymmetric. This should be accounted for in the compliance and trading rules. In this paper we model the uncertainty of inventories as intervals or using fuzzy numbers. The latter allows us to better shape the uncertainty distributions. The compliance and emission trading rules obtained generalize the results for the symmetric uncertainty distributions that were considered in the earlier papers by the present authors (Nahorski et al., Water Air & Soil Pollution. Focus 7(4–5):539–558, 2007; Nahorski and Horabik, 2007, J Energy Eng 134(2):47–52, 2008). However, unlike in the symmetric distribution, in the asymmetric fuzzy case it is necessary to apply approximations because of nonlinearities in the formulas. The final conclusion is that the interval uncertainty rules can be applied, but with a much higher substitutional noncompliance risk, which is a parameter of the rules.     

Studying methane emission in the north of Western Siberia

Methane emitted into the atmosphere from sources located in the Urengoi natural gas field is estimated from direct methane concentration measurements in the atmospheric boundary layer and modeling. The results of direct profile measurements in the summer-fall season of 2003 are generalized versus the data from the previous field studies and background monitoring of greenhouse gases in the northern polar region. The use of models for calculating the intensity of emission from sources located in the field area together with a set of methane concentration measurements at three altitudes allowed the authors to develop a method of verification of emission from a specific source, a deposit. The method estimates the emission both from part of the field area and from the whole field with an irregular distribution of the intensity of sources across the deposit area.     

The establishment of the atmospheric emission inventories of the ESCOMPTE program

Within the frame of the ESCOMPTE program, a spatial emission inventory and an emission database aimed at tropospheric photochemistry intercomparison modeling has been developed under the scientific supervision of the LPCA with the help of the regional coordination of Air Quality network AIRMARAIX. This inventory has been established for all categories of sources (stationary, mobile and biogenic sources) over a domain of 19,600 km² centered on the cities of Marseilles–Aix-en-Provence in the southeastern part of France with a spatial resolution of 1 km². A yearly inventory for 1999 has been established, and hourly emission inventories for 23 days of June and July 2000 and 2001, corresponding to the intensive measurement periods, have been produced. The 104 chemical species in the inventory have been selected to be relevant with respect to photochemistry modeling according to available data. The entire list of species in the inventory numbers 216 which will allow other future applications of this database. This database is presently the most detailed and complete regional emission database in France. In addition, the database structure and the emission calculation modules have been designed to ensure a better sustainability and upgradeability, being provided with appropriate maintenance software. The general organization and method is summarized and the results obtained for both yearly and hourly emissions are detailed and discussed. Some comparisons have been performed with the existing results in this region to ensure the congruency of the results. This leads to confirm the relevance and the consistency of the ESCOMPTE emission inventory.     

巴黎协定背景下全球减排博弈模拟研究

构建了具有7个国家集团的全球多国家集团气候博弈集成评估模拟系统,针对《巴黎协定》背景下各国至2050年以及2100年的减排目标,分别对减排博弈的纳什均衡、博弈不确定性以及外部政策对减排博弈的影响展开了模拟分析。研究发现：在基准情景下,全球各国将在2030年后均选择不减排策略,全球至2100年升温达到2.62℃;而模型参数的不确定性也未能突破全球零减排的纳什均衡;而仅当在全球范围内对不减排采取惩罚措施时,全球零减排的纳什均衡点被打破。但在当前《巴黎协定》减排承诺下,为达到2℃的温控目标,加大2030—2050年的减排幅度至关重要,否则全球将在2040年左右突破2℃阈值。     

Estimation of anthropogenic heat emission in the Gyeong-In region of Korea

The anthropogenic heat emission in the Gyeong-In region of Korea in 2002 is estimated based on the energy consumption statistics data. The energy consumption over the region is categorized into four energy sectors: electricity use, transportation, point sources, and area sources. The estimated annual mean anthropogenic heat emissions in Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi are found to be 55, 53, and 28 W m^?2, respectively. A major contributing energy sector to anthropogenic heat emission in the Gyeong-In region is area sources including the residential, commercial, and small industrial sectors, which account for 40% of the total heat emission from the three administrative districts, and transportation and electricity use follow. The distributions of the annual, monthly, and hourly mean anthropogenic heat emission for all energy sectors are presented in the 0.01° longitude × 0.01° latitude grid domain. The presently estimated anthropogenic heat emission data can be used in mesoscale meteorological and environmental modeling in the Gyeong-In region.     

几种起沙方案对东亚风蚀起沙模拟的比较

针对源区起沙的不确定性,整理并选取了国际上最具代表性的几种起沙方案,结合中尺度气象模式MM5V3．7输出的高分辨率气象资料,将其应用于东亚地区一次强沙尘暴天气过程的源区起沙模拟研究,利用地面观测实况和卫星监测图像资料,比较了它们对东亚起沙源的模拟效果和差异。结果表明,两种起沙方案的模拟效果较好且性能稳定。     

Soil acidification stimulates the emission of ethylene from temperate forest soils

Soil acidification via acid precipitation is recognized to have detrimental impacts on forest ecosystems, which is in part associated with the function of ethylene released from the soil. However, the impacts of acidification on the cycling of ethylene in forest soils have not been fully taken into consideration in global change studies. Forest topsoils (0--5 cm) under four temperate forest stands were sampled to study the effects of a pH change on the emissions of ethylene and carbon dioxide from the soils and concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) released into the soils. Increasing acidification or alkalinization of forest soils could increase concentrations of DOC released into the soils under anoxic and oxic conditions. The ethylene emission from these forest topsoils could significantly increase with a decreasing pH, when the soils were acidified experimentally to a pH<4.0, and it increased with an increasing concentration of DOC released into the soils, which was different from the carbon dioxide emission from the soils. Hence, the short-term stimulating responses of ethylene emission to a decreasing pH in such forest soils resulted from the increase in the DOC concentration due to acidification rather than carbon mineralization. The results would promote one to study the effects of soil acidification on the cycling of ethylene under different forest stands, particularly under degraded forest stands with heavy acid depositions.     

Sensitivity of the southern annular mode to greenhouse gas emission scenarios

The leading mode of southern hemisphere (SH) climatic variability, the southern annular mode (SAM), has recently seen a shift towards its positive phase due to stratospheric ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Here we examine how sensitive the SAM (defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function of SH sea level pressure anomalies) is to future GHG concentrations. We determine its likely evolution for three intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES) for austral summer and winter, using a multi-model ensemble of IPCC fourth assessment report models which resolve stratospheric ozone recovery. During the period of summer ozone recovery (2000–2050), the SAM index exhibits weakly negative, statistically insignificant trends due to stratospheric ozone recovery which offsets the positive forcing imposed by increasing GHG concentrations. Thereafter, positive SAM index trends occur with magnitudes that show sensitivity to the SRES scenario utilised, and thus future GHG emissions. Trends are determined to be strongest for SRES A2, followed by A1B and B1, respectively. The winter SAM maintains a similar dependency upon GHG as summer, but over the entire twenty-first century and to a greater extent. We also examine the influence of ozone recovery by comparing results to models that exclude stratospheric ozone recovery. Projections are shown to be statistically different from the aforementioned results, highlighting the importance of ozone recovery in governing SAM-evolution. We therefore demonstrate that the future SAM will depend both upon GHG emissions and stratospheric ozone recovery.     

Methane emission from the oligotrophic bog massif in the Northwestern Russia

Results of measuring methane emissions from the Lammin-Suo oligotrophic bog massif are considered. It is shown that emission intensity depends on the methane transport from the active layer of the peat bed. The highest emission intensity is observed in the sedge-sphagnum microlandscape and over swampy hollows of the hummock-ridge complex. It is found that the methane flux intensity approaches zero when the wetland level drops by 30–35 cm from the bog surface. Spatial methane emission variability is estimated within dominating bog landscapes. The methane emission reaches its maximum values (207%) in microlandscapes with oriented microrelief (hummock-ridge complex); in the central bog (sphagnum-suffrutescent-cottongrass landscape afforested with pine), it reaches its lowest level (76%). A model of methane emissions from bogs is developed. The model has been verified from the observational data. The comparison of model calculations with experimental data is indicative of their good agreement, which makes it possible to use the model in different calculations and assessments of the influence of natural factors on the methane emission intensity.     

Adjustment of the natural ocean carbon cycle to negative emission rates

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is the only geoengineering technique that allows negative emissions and the reduction of anthropogenic carbon in the atmosphere. Since the time scales of the global carbon cycle are largely driven by the exchanges with the natural oceanic stocks, the implementation of CDR actions is anticipated to create outgassing from the ocean that may reduce their efficiency. The adjustment of the natural carbon cycle to CDR was studied with a numerical Earth System Model, focusing on the oceanic component and considering two idealized families of CDR policies, one based on a target atmospheric concentration and one based on planned negative emissions. Results show that both actions are anticipated to release the anthropogenic carbon stored in the surface ocean, effectively increasing the required removal effort. The additional negative emissions are expected to be lower when the CDR policy is driven by planned removal rates without prescribing a target atmospheric CO₂ concentration.     

卷云对青藏高原的射出长波辐射影响的研究

本文叙述了一种求解卷云射出长波辐射的方法。通过建立卷云示迹模式,用累加法进行分析,并通过分析卷云的一些微物理特征,假设卷云含水量垂直分布模式,由三层近似化筒求得射出长波辐射通量密度。根据模式计算得到:1.与卫星观测青藏高原高云地区对应射出长波辐射通量密度基本一致的结果。2.卷云底高度及卷云厚度与射出长波辐射通量密度相关的一些有意义的结果,并讨论了青藏高原上卷云影响的特殊情况。     

Methane emission from rice paddies

Methane release rates from rice paddies have been measured in Andalusia, Spain, during almost a complete vegetation period in 1982 using the static box system. The release rates ranged between 2 and 14 mg/m²/h and exhibited a strong seasonal variation with low values during the tillering stage and shortly before harvest, while maximum values were observed at the end of the flowering stage. The CH₄ release rate, averaged over the complete vegetation period, accounted for 4 mg/m²/h which results in a worldwide CH₄ emission from rice paddies of 35–59×10¹² g/yr if we assume that the observed CH₄ release rates are representative of global conditions. The CH₄ release rates showed diurnal variations with higher values late in the afternoon which were most likely caused by temperature variations within the upper layers of the paddy soils. Approximately 95% of the CH₄ emitted into the atmosphere by rice paddies was due to transport through the rice plants. Transport by bubbles or diffusion through the paddy water was of minor importance. Incubation experiments showed that CH₄ was neither produced nor consumed in the paddy water. The relase of CH₄ from rice paddies caused a diurnal variation of CH₄ in ambient air within the rice-growing area with maximum values of up to 2.3 ppmv during the early morning, compared to average daytime values of 1.75 ppmv.     

The impact of uncertain emission trading markets on interactive resource planning processes and international emission trading experiments

Interactive resource planning is an increasingly important aspect of emission trading markets. The conferences of Rio de Janeiro, 1992, and Kyoto, 1997, originally focusing on environmental protection at both macro- and micro-economic levels, called for new economic instruments of this kind. An important economic tool in this area is Joint Implementation (JI), defined in Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol. Sustainable development can be guaranteed only if JI is embedded in optimal energy management. In this contribution we describe and evaluate one international procedure within uncertain markets which helps to establish optimal energy management and interactive resource planning processes within uncertain emission trading markets.     

利用气象节能技术减少污染物的排放

分析气象与燃煤量的关系,引进节能温度,利用一元线性回归原理建立日燃煤量与节能温度方程,形成一套实用性很强的节能软件系统。同时分析燃煤与污染物的排放量之间的关系,气象节能技术的应用,既节省了能源,也减少燃煤污染物的排放量。     

Solar-hydrogen electricity generation in the context of global CO2 emission reduction

The relative costs and CO₂ emission reduction benefits of advanced centralized fossil fuel electricity generation, hybrid photovoltaic-fossil fuel electricity generation, and total solar electricity generation with hydrogen storage are compared. Component costs appropriate to the year 2000–2010 time frame are assumed throughout. For low insolation conditions (160 W m^–2 mean annual solar radiation), photovoltaic electricity could cost 5–13 cents/kWh by year 2000–2010, while for high insolation conditions (260 W m^–2) the cost could be 4–9 cents/kWh. Advanced fossil fuel-based power generation should achieve efficiencies of 50% using coal and 55% using natural gas. Carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced by a factor of 2 to 3 compared to conventional coal-based electricity production in industrialized countries. In a solar-fossil fuel hybrid, some electricity would be supplied from solar energy whenever the sun is shining and remaining demand satisfied by fossil fuels. This increases total capital costs but saves on fuel costs. For low insolation conditions, the costs of electricity increases by 0–2 cents/kWh, while the cost of electricity decreases in many cases for high insolation conditions. Solar energy would provide 20% or 30% of electricity demand for the low and high insolation cases, respectively. In the solar-hydrogen energy system, some photovoltaic arrays would provide current electricity demand while others would be used to produce hydrogen electrolytically for storage and later use in fuel cells to generate electricity. Electricity costs from the solar-hydrogen system are 0.2–5.4 cents/kWh greater than from a natural gas power plant, and 1.0–4.5 cents/kWh greater than from coal plant for the cost and performance assumptions adopted here. The carbon tax required to make the solar-hydrogen system competitive with fossil fuels ranges from $70–660/tonne, depending on the cost and performance of system components and the future price of fossil fuels.Leakage of hydrogen from storage into the atmosphere, and the eventual transport of a portion of the leaked hydrogen to the stratosphere, would result in the formation of stratospheric water vapor. This could perturb stratospheric ozone amounts and contribute to global warming. Order-of-magnitude calculations indicate that, for a leakage rate of 0.5% yr^–1 of total hydrogen production -which might be characteristic of underground hydrogen storage - the global warming effect of solarhydrogen electricity generation is comparable to that of a natural gas-solar energy hybrid system after one year of emission, but is on the order of 1% the impact of the hybrid system at a 100 year time scale. Impacts on stratospheric ozone are likely to be minuscule.     

Direct shortwave radiative forcing of the Asian dust aerosol on dust emission

The physical processes of the feedback mechanism of direct shortwave radiative forcing of the Asian dust aerosol on dust emission has been examined using simulated results with the coupled (with dust shortwave radiative forcing) and the non-coupled model (without dust shortwave radiative forcing) based on the MM5 model and the Asian Dust Aerosol Model on 19 March 2002. The results indicate that a significant dust emission reduction occurs in the high dust concentration (HDC) region of the dust source region whereas an enhanced dust emission appears in the downstream of the dust source region. It is found that Asian dust aerosols raised during the daytime by the strong surface wind cause negative shortwave radiative flux near the surface, which in turn reduces the sensible heat flux causing the cooling of the air, thereby enhancing stable stratification. The dynamic adjustment of the negative radiative flux of the dust induces a positive pressure anomaly over the HDC region and a negative pressure anomaly toward the synoptic low pressure center, resulting in a dipole shape of pressure anomaly field near the surface. The associated secondary circulation of this pressure anomaly together with the reduction of turbulent intensity due to the reduced sensible heat flux reduces the low-level wind speed thereby reducing dust emission in the upstream of the HDC region of the dust source region (Region I), while enhancing the low-level wind speed in the downstream region (Region II), which in turn enhances dust emission. This enhanced dust emission is smaller than the emission reduction in the upstream, resulting in overall dust emission reduction during the daytime.     

Exploring the orientations which characterise the likely public acceptance of low emission energy technologies

There is a large body of research and development into the low emission energy technologies that has the potential to assist developed and developing countries transition to more sustainable energy systems. It has long been recognised that public perceptions can have a fundamental effect on the market for technology and this issue raises questions about the role society will play in developing a low emissions energy future. Understanding how the public will respond to the range of low emission energy technologies as part of a climate change mitigation package is therefore critical for researchers, policy makers and industry stakeholders. In the current research, we investigated the Australian public’s likely acceptance of a range of low emission energy technologies by assessing the diverse ‘orientations’ that have emerged in response to low emission energy technologies. In a survey of two Australian states we measured the support for, and knowledge of, a range of low emission energy technologies. Using self-organising maps, a relatively new approach for segmenting response profiles, we identified that at least four distinct ‘orientations’ have emerged toward the issue and are characterising the likely acceptance of these technologies: ‘Disengaged’, ‘Nuclear Oriented’, ‘Renewables Oriented’, and ‘Engaged’. The implications of these multiple public viewpoints are described for climate change mitigation policy and for future research into the social acceptance of alternative energy technologies.