Modeled steric and mass-driven sea level change caused by Greenland Ice Sheet melting

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has been a major contributor to sea level change in the recent past. Global and regional sea level variations caused by melting of the GIS are investigated with the finite element sea-ice ocean model (FESOM). We consider changes of local density (steric effects), mass inflow into the ocean, redistribution of mass, and gravitational effects. Five melting scenarios are simulated, where mass losses of 100, 200, 500, and 1000 Gt/yr are converted to a continuous volume flux that is homogeneously distributed along the coast of Greenland south of 75°N. In addition, a scenario of regional melt rates is calculated from daily ice melt characteristics. The global mean sea level modeled with FESOM increases by about 0.3 mm/yr if 100 Gt/yr of ice melts, which includes eustatic and steric sea level change. In the global mean the steric contribution is one order of magnitude smaller than the eustatic contribution. Regionally, especially in the North Atlantic, the steric contribution leads to strong deviations from the global mean sea level change. The modeled pattern mainly reflects the structure of temperature and salinity change in the upper ocean. Additionally, small steric variations occur due to local variability in the heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. The mass loss has also affects on the gravitational attraction by the ice sheet, causing spatially varying sea level change mainly near the GIS, but also at greater distances. This effect is accounted for by using Green's functions.     

Coastal and global sea level change

Both coastal and global mean sea level rise by about 3.0 ± 0.5 mm/year from January 1993 to December 2004. Over shorter intervals the coastal sea level rises faster and over longer intervals slowly than the global mean, which trend is almost constant for each interval and is equal to 2.9 ± 0.5 mm/year in 1993–2008. The different trends are due to the higher interannual variability of coastal sea level, caused by the sea level regional variability, that is further averaged out when computing the global mean.Coastal sea level rise is well represented by a selected set of 267 stations of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and by the corresponding co-located altimeter points. Its departure from coastal sea level computed from satellite altimetry in a 150 km distance from coast, dominated by a large rise in the Eastern Pacific, is due to the regional interannual variability.Regionally the trends of the coastal and open-ocean sea level variability are in good agreement and the main world basins have a positive averaged trend. The interannual variability is highly correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (SO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic indices over both the altimeter period and the interval 1950–2001. Being the signal of large scale a small number of stations with good spatial coverage is needed. The reconstruction of the interannual variability using the spatial pattern from altimetry and the temporal patterns from tide gauges correlated to NAO and SOI restitutes about 50% of the observed interannual variability over 1993–2001.     

Perspectives on present-day sea level change: a tribute to Christian le Provost

In this paper, we first discuss the controversial result of the work by Cabanes et al. (Science 294:840–842, 2001), who suggested that the rate of past century sea level rise may have been overestimated, considering the limited and heterogeneous location of historical tide gauges and the high regional variability of thermal expansion which was supposed to dominate the observed sea level. If correct, this conclusion would have solved the problem raised by the IPCC third assessment report [Church et al, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 881, 2001], namely, the factor two difference between the 20th century observed sea level rise and the computed climatic contributions. However, recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/year) of the 1.8 mm/year observed sea level rise of the past few decades. In fact, the Cabanes et al.’s conclusion was incorrect due to a contamination of abnormally high ocean temperature data in the Gulf Stream area that led to an overestimate of thermal expansion in this region. In this paper, we also estimate thermal expansion over the last decade (1993–2003), using a new ocean temperature and salinity database. We compare our result with three other estimates, two being based on global gridded data sets, and one based on an approach similar to that developed here. It is found that the mean rate of thermosteric sea level rise over the past decade is 1.5±0.3 mm/year, i.e. 50% of the observed 3 mm/year by satellite altimetry. For both time spans, past few decades and last decade, a contribution of 1.4 mm/year is not explained by thermal expansion, thus needs to be of water mass origin. Direct estimates of land ice melt for the recent years account for about 1 mm/year sea level rise. Thus, at least for the last decade, we have moved closer to explaining the observed rate of sea level rise than the IPCC third assessment report.     

Sea level rise in the north-western part of the Arabian Gulf

Relative sea level variations in the north-western part of the Arabian Gulf have been estimated in the past using no more than 10 to 15 years of observations. In this study, we have almost doubled the period to 28.7 years by examining all available tide gauge data in the area and constructing a mean gauge time-series from seven coastal tide gauges. We found for the period 1979–2007 a relative sea level rise of 2.2 ± 0.5 mm/year. Using the subsidence observed at 6 GPS stations within a radius of 100 km of the tide gauges as an indication of the vertical land motion, the corresponding absolute sea level rise is 1.5 ± 0.8 mm/year that is in agreement with the global estimate of 1.9 ± 0.1 mm/year (Church and White, 2011) for the same studied period. By taking into account the temporal correlations we conclude that previous published results underestimate the true sea level rate uncertainty in this area by a factor of 5–10.     

Water mass variation in the Mediterranean and Black Seas

The mass-induced sea level variability and the net mass transport between Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea are derived for the interval between August 2002 and July 2008 from satellite-based observations and from model data. We construct in each basin two time series representing the basin mean mass signal in terms of equivalent water height. The first series is obtained from steric-corrected altimetry while the other is deduced from GRACE data corrected for the contamination by continental hydrology. The series show a good agreement in terms of annual and inter-annual signals, which is in line with earlier works, although different model corrections influence the consistency in terms of seasonal signal and trend.In the Mediterranean Sea, we obtain the best agreement using a steric correction from the regional oceanographic model MFSTEP and a continental hydrological leakage correction derived from the global continental hydrological model WaterGAP2. The inter-annual time series show a correlation of 0.85 and a root mean square (RMS) difference of 15 mm. The two estimates have similar accuracy and their annual amplitude and phase agree within 3 mm and 23 days respectively. The GRACE-derived mass-induced sea level variability yields an annual amplitude of 27 ± 5 mm peaking in December and a trend of 5.3 ± 1.9 mm/yr, which deviates within 3 mm/yr from the altimetry-derived estimate.In the Black Sea, the series are less consistent, with lower accuracy of the GRACE-derived estimate, but still show a promising agreement considering the smaller size of the basin. The best agreement is realized choosing the corrections from WaterGAP2 and from the regional oceanographic model NEMO. The inter-annual time series have a correlation and RMS differences of 0.68 and 55 mm, their annual amplitude and phase agree within 4 mm and 6 days respectively. The GRACE-derived seawater mass signal has an annual amplitude of 32 ± 4 mm peaking in April. On inter-annual time scales, the mass-induced sea level variability is stronger than in the Mediterranean Sea, with an increase from 2003 to 2005 followed by a decrease from 2006 to 2008.Based on mass conservation, the mass-induced sea level variations, river runoff and precipitation minus evaporation are combined to derive the strait flows between the basins and with the Atlantic Ocean. At the Gibraltar strait, the net inflow varies annually with an amplitude of 52 ± 10 × 10⁻³ Sv peaking end of September (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹). The inflow through the Bosphorus strait displays an annual amplitude of 13 ± 3 ×10⁻³ Sv peaking in the middle of March. Additionally, an increase of the Gibraltar net inflow (3.4 ± 0.8 × 10⁻³ Sv/yr) is detected.     

Internal Variability Versus Anthropogenic Forcing on Sea Level and Its Components

In this paper we review and update detection and attribution studies in sea level and its major contributors during the past decades. Tide gauge records reveal that the observed twentieth-century global and regional sea level rise is out of the bounds of its natural variability, evidencing thus a human fingerprint in the reported trends. The signal varies regionally, and it partly depends on the magnitude of the background variability. The human fingerprint is also manifested in the contributors of sea level for which observations are available, namely ocean thermal expansion and glaciers’ mass loss, which dominated the global sea level rise over the twentieth century. Attribution studies provide evidence that the trends in both components are clearly dominated by anthropogenic forcing over the second half of the twentieth century. In the earlier decades, there is a lack of observations hampering an improved attribution of causes to the observed sea level rise. At certain locations along the coast, the human influence is exacerbated by local coastal activities that induce land subsidence and increase the risk of sea level-related hazards.     

Mass-induced sea level variations in the Red Sea from GRACE,steric-corrected altimetry,in situ bottom pressure records,and hydrographic observations

An annual amplitude of ∼18 cm mass-induced sea level variations (SLV) in the Red Sea is detected from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and steric-corrected altimetry from 2003 to 2011. The annual mass variations in the region dominate the mean SLV, and generally reach maximum in late January/early February. The annual steric component of the mean SLV is relatively small (<3 cm) and out of phase of the mass-induced SLV. In situ bottom pressure records at the eastern coast of the Red Sea validate the high mass variability observed by steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE. In addition, the horizontal water mass flux of the Red Sea estimated from GRACE and steric-corrected altimetry is validated by hydrographic observations.     

A comparison of GOCE gravitational models with EGM2008

Four new gravity field models from GOCE, two of them combined with GRACE, are compared here with EGM2008. The objectives are to look into the differences in consecutive ranges of the spherical harmonic expansion globally as well as in selected geographical regions and in the regions of the various data sources used for EGM2008. In general, GOCE is able to contribute to improved global gravity models in the spherical harmonic range between 120 and 200 (and above). The agreement between EGM2008 and the GOCE models is very good in well-surveyed regions such as North America, Europe and Australia, with geoid RMS-differences on the order of 4–6 cm. In other regions, where the surface gravity data available for the development of EGM2008 were poor, such as South America, Africa, South-East Asia or China the RMS-differences are on a level of 30 cm. Here GOCE leads to a significant improvement. These findings are confirmed by the analysis of the areas of the various EGM2008 data sources. In the regions of the so-called “fill-in” data of EGM2008 RMS-geoid height differences are high. In Antarctica GOCE also gives important improvements in terms of spatial resolution and accuracy. In general, the agreement between EGM2008 and the GOCE-models up to degree and order (d/o) 200 is good, with a global (excluding the polar gaps of GOCE orbits, throughout) geoid difference RMS of 11 cm, in the ocean areas 8 cm and 20 cm in the continental areas. GOCE models are better suited for ocean circulation studies because no prior ocean information enters into the data reduction process, as it is the case when deducing gravity anomalies from an altimetric mean sea surface. On the other hand, the good consistency between GOCE-models and EGM2008 in ocean areas very likely indicates that the influence of ocean circulation information on EGM2008 is rather small. The four tested GOCE models behave similarly except at the highest latitudes where GOCE lacks data due to its orbit inclination of 96.5° and some form of regularization which has to be applied.     

Coastal and oceanic SST variability along the western Iberian Peninsula

The inter-annual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) was analyzed along the western Iberian Peninsula in the region ranging from 9.5 °W to 21.5 °W and from 37.5 °N to 42.5 °N with a spatial resolution of 1°×1° from 1900 to 2008. Both coastal and oceanic SST showed an overall increase with warming and cooling cycles similar to those observed in the North Atlantic region and in previous regional studies. In addition, the evolution of coastal and ocean water has been observed to be different. In general, ocean water is more affected by the different warming–cooling cycles than coastal water. In spite of coast and ocean are highly influenced by global changes affecting the whole North Atlantic region, near shore SST has been observed to be correlated with local wind regime, which is itself a manifestation of the Eastern Atlantic (EA) teleconnection pattern.     

Resolving sea level contributions by identifying fingerprints in time-variable gravity and altimetry

We have studied the ability of the GRACE gravimetry mission and Jason-1 altimetry to resolve ice and glacier induced contributions to sea level rise, by means of a fingerprint method. Here, the signals from ice sheet and land glacier changes, steric changes, glacial isostatic adjustment and terrestrial hydrology are assumed to have fixed spatial patterns. In a joint inversion using GRACE and Jason-1 data the unknown temporal components can then be estimated by least-squares. In total, we estimate temporal components for up to ∼ 80 individual patterns. From a propagation of the full error-covariance from GRACE and a diagonal error-covariance from Jason-1 altimetry we find that: (1) GRACE almost entirely explains the mass related parameters in the joint inversion, (2) an inversion using only Jason-1 data has a marginal ability to estimate the mass related parameters, while the steric parameters have much better formal accuracy. In terms of mean sea level rise the steric patterns have a maximum formal accuracy of 0.01 mm for an 11 week running mean. In general, strong negative error correlations (ρ < − 0.9) exists between the high and low elevation parts of the ice sheet drainage basins, when those are estimated independently. The largest formal errors found are in the order of 40 Gton for small high elevation subbasins in the southern Greenland ice sheet, which are difficult to separate. In a simplified joint inversion, merging high and low elevation basins, we have investigated the ability of the GRACE and Jason-1 data to separate the geocenter motion into a present-day contribution and a contribution from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We find that the GIA related signal is larger than the present-day component with a maximum of −0.71 mm/year in the Z direction. Total geocenter motion rates are found to be −0.28, 0.43, −1.08 mm/year for the X, Y and Z components, respectively. The inversion results have been propagated to the Jason-1 along-track measurements. Over the time period considered, we see that a large part of the variability in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian ocean can be explained by our inversion results. The applied inversion method therefore seems a feasible way to separate steric from mass induced sea level changes. At the same time, the joint inversion would benefit from more advanced parameterizations, which may aid in fitting remaining signal from altimetry.     

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.     

Characterization of Global Mean Sea Level Variations Observed by TOPEX/POSEIDON Using Empirical Orthogonal Functions

The TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) satellite altimeter mission has provided estimates of global mean sea level since late 1992 with a precision of approximately 4 mm. Over the first 3.5 years of the mission, T/P has observed a mean sea level rise of +0.5 mm/year when on-board estimates of the instrument drift are employed (and after correcting for a recently discovered software error), and +2.8 mm/year when an additional external tide gauge-based calibration estimate is used. A preliminary estimate of the error in the latter estimate is 1.3 mm/year, however this issue requires more research. Characterization of the observed sea level variations using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) indicates that most of the mean sea level rise can be described by a single mode of the EOF expansion. The spatial characteristics of this mode suggests it is related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. EOF analysis of sea level variations from the Semtner/Chervin ocean circulation model reveal a nearly identical mode, although its effect on mean sea level is unknown due to a constant volume constraint used in the model. EOF analysis of measured sea surface temperature (SST) variations also show a mode with similar temporal and spatial structure. However, the concentration of the observed sea level rise in this mode does not preclude the possibility that multiple phenomena have contributed to this mode, thus a link between the observed sea level rise and the ENSO phenomena is only weakly suggested. The absolute value of the observed mean sea level rise will depend on refinements currently being made in the instrument calibration techniques. In addition, the possibility of interannual and decadal variations of global mean sea level requires that a much longer time series of satellite altimetry be collected before variations caused by climate change can be unambiguously detected.     

Balancing the global oceanic neodymium budget: Evaluating the role of groundwater

The distinctly different, ε_Nd(0) values of the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans requires that the residence time of Nd in the ocean (i.e., τ_Nd) be on the order of, or less than, the ocean mixing time of ∼ 500–1500 yr. However, estimates of τ_Nd, based on river influxes, range from 4000 to 15,000 yr, thus exceeding the ocean mixing time. In order to reconcile the oceanic Nd budget and lower the residence time by roughly a factor of 10, an additional, as yet unidentified, and hence “missing Nd flux” to the ocean is necessary. Dissolution of materials deposited on continental margins has previously been proposed as a source of the missing flux. In this contribution, submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is examined as a possible source of the missing Nd flux. Neodymium concentrations (n = 730) and ε_Nd(0) values (n = 58) for groundwaters were obtained from the literature in order to establish representative groundwater values. Mean groundwater Nd concentrations and ε_Nd(0) values were used along with recent estimates of the terrestrial (freshwater) component of SGD (6% of river discharge on a global basis) to test whether groundwater discharge to the coastal oceans could account for the missing flux. Employing mean Nd concentrations of the compiled data base (i.e., 31.8 nmol/kg for all 730 analyses and 11.3 nmol/kg for 141 groundwater samples from a coastal aquifer), the global, terrestrial-derived SGD flux of Nd is estimated to range between 2.9 × 10⁷ and 8.1 × 10⁷ mol/yr. These estimates are of the same order of magnitude, and within a factor of 2, of the missing Nd flux (i.e., 5.4 × 10⁷ mol/yr). Applying the SGD Nd flux estimates, the global average ε_Nd(0) of SGD is predicted to be − 9.1, which is similar to our estimate for the missing Nd flux (− 9.2), and in agreement with the mean (± S.D.) ε_Nd(0) measured in groundwaters (i.e., ε_Nd(0) = −8.9 ± 4.2). The similarities in the estimated SGD Nd flux and corresponding ε_Nd(0) values to the magnitude and isotope composition of the missing Nd flux are compelling, and suggest that discharge of groundwater to the oceans could account for the missing Nd flux. Future investigations should focus on quantifying the Nd concentrations and isotope compositions of groundwater from coastal aquifers from a variety of coastal settings, as well as the important geochemical reactions that effect Nd concentrations in subterranean estuaries in order to better constrain contributions of SGD to the oceanic Nd budget.     

Sea-level rise: A review of recent past and near-future trends

Global mean sea level is a potentially sensitive indicator of climate change. Global warming will contribute to worldwide sea-level rise (SLR) from thermal expansion of ocean water, melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets. A number of studies, mostly using tide-gauge data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, Bidston Observatory, England, have obtained rates of global SLR within the last 100 years that range between 0·3 and 3 mm yr^?1, with most values concentrated between 1 and 2 mm yr^?1. However, the reliability of these results has been questioned because of problems with data quality and physical processes that introduce a high level of spatial and temporal variability. Sources of uncertainty in the sea-level data include variations in winds, ocean currents, river runoff, vertical earth movements, and geographically uneven distribution of long-term records. Crustal motions introduce a major source of error. To a large extent, these can be filtered by employing palaeo-sea-level proxies, and geophysical modelling to remove glacio-isostatic changes. Ultimately, satellite geodesy will help resolve the inherent ambiguity between the land and ocean level changes recorded by tide gauges. Future sea level is expected to rise by ～ 1 m, with a ‘best-guess’ value of 48 cm by the year 2100. Such rates represent an acceleration of four to seven times over present rates. Local land subsidence could substantially increase the apparent SLR. For example, Louisiana is currently experiencing SLR trends nearly 10 times the global mean rate. These recently reduced SLR estimates are based on climate models that predict a zero to negative contribution to SLR from Antarctica. Most global climate models (GCMs) indicate an ice accumulation over Antarctica, because in a warmer world, precipitation will exceed ablation/snow-melt. However, the impacts of attritional processes, such as thinning of the ice shelves, have been downplayed according to some experts. Furthermore, not all climate models are in agreement. Opposite conclusions may be drawn from the results of other GCMs. In addition, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is potentially subject to dynamic and volcanic instabilities that are difficult to predict. Because of the great uncertainty in SLR projections, careful monitoring of future sea-level trends by upgraded tide-gauge networks and satellite geodesy will become essential. Finally, because of the high spatial variability in crustal subsidence rates, wave climates and tidal regimes, it will be the set of local conditions (especially the relative sea-level rise), rather than a single global mean sea-level trend, that will determine each locality's vulnerability to future SLR.     

Are there connections between the Earth's magnetic field and climate?

Understanding climate change is an active topic of research. Much of the observed increase in global surface temperature over the past 150 years occurred prior to the 1940s and after the 1980s. The main causes invoked are solar variability, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas content or sulfur due to natural or anthropogenic action, or internal variability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system. Magnetism has seldom been invoked, and evidence for connections between climate and magnetic field variations have received little attention. We review evidence for correlations which could suggest such (causal or non-causal) connections at various time scales (recent secular variation ∼ 10–100 yr, historical and archeomagnetic change ∼ 100–5000 yr, and excursions and reversals ∼ 10³–10⁶ yr), and attempt to suggest mechanisms. Evidence for correlations, which invoke Milankovic forcing in the core, either directly or through changes in ice distribution and moments of inertia of the Earth, is still tenuous. Correlation between decadal changes in amplitude of geomagnetic variations of external origin, solar irradiance and global temperature is stronger. It suggests that solar irradiance could have been a major forcing function of climate until the mid-1980s, when “anomalous” warming becomes apparent. The most intriguing feature may be the recently proposed archeomagnetic jerks, i.e. fairly abrupt (∼ 100 yr long) geomagnetic field variations found at irregular intervals over the past few millennia, using the archeological record from Europe to the Middle East. These seem to correlate with significant climatic events in the eastern North Atlantic region. A proposed mechanism involves variations in the geometry of the geomagnetic field (f.i. tilt of the dipole to lower latitudes), resulting in enhanced cosmic-ray induced nucleation of clouds. No forcing factor, be it changes in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere or changes in cosmic ray flux modulated by solar activity and geomagnetism, or possibly other factors, can at present be neglected or shown to be the overwhelming single driver of climate change in past centuries. Intensive data acquisition is required to further probe indications that the Earth's and Sun's magnetic fields may have significant bearing on climate change at certain time scales.     

Detecting,sourcing, and age-dating dredged sediments on the open shelf,southern California,using dead mollusk shells

Molluscan shell debris is an under-exploited means of detecting, sourcing, and age-dating dredged sediments in open-shelf settings. Backscatter features on the Southern California shelf are suggestive of dredged sediment hauled from San Diego Bay but deposited significantly inshore of the EPA-designated ocean disposal site. We find that 36% of all identifiable bivalve shells > 2 mm (44% of shells > 4 mm) in sediment samples from this 'short dump' area are from species known to live exclusively in the Bay; such shells are absent at reference sites of comparable water depth, indicating that their presence in the short-dump area signals non-compliant disposal rather than natural offshore transport or sea level rise. These sediments lack the shells of species that invaded California bays in the 1970s, suggesting that disposal preceded federal regulations. This inexpensive, low-tech method, with its protocol for rejecting alternative hypotheses, will be easy to adapt in other settings.     

Sea level time series and ocean tide analysis from multipath signals at five GPS sites in different parts of the world

We present sea level observations derived from the analysis of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data recorded by five coastal GPS stations. These stations are located in different regions around the world, both in the northern and in the southern hemisphere, in different multipath environments, from rural coastal areas to busy harbors, and experience different tidal ranges.The recorded SNR data show periodic variations that originate from multipath, i.e. the interference of direct and reflected signals. The general assumption is that for satellite arcs facing the open sea, the rapid SNR variations are due to reflections off the sea surface. The SNR data recorded from these azimuth intervals were analyzed by spectral analysis with two methods: a standard analysis method assuming a static sea level during a satellite arc and an extended analysis method assuming a time dependent sea level during a satellite arc.The GPS-derived sea level results are compared to sea level records from co-located traditional tide gauges, both in the time and in the frequency domain. The sea level time series are highly correlated with correlation coefficients to the order of 0.89–0.99. The root-mean-square (RMS) difference is 6.2 cm for the station with the lowest tidal range of 165 cm and 43 cm for the station with the highest tidal range of 772 cm. The relative accuracy, defined as the ratio of RMS and tidal range, is between 2.4% and 10.0% for all stations.Comparing the standard analysis method and the extended analysis method, the results based on the extended analysis method agree better with the independent tide gauge records for the stations with a high tidal range. For the station with the highest tidal range (772 cm), the RMS is reduced by 47% when using the extended analysis method. Furthermore, the results also indicate that the standard analysis method, assuming a static sea level, can be used for stations with a tidal range of up to about 270 cm, without performing significantly worse than the extended analysis method.Tidal amplitudes and phases are derived by harmonic analysis of the sea level records. Again, a high level of agreement is observed between the tide gauge and the GPS-derived results. Comparing the GPS-derived results, the results based on the extended analysis method show a higher degree of agreement with the traditional tide gauge results for stations with larger tidal ranges. Spectral analysis of the residuals after the harmonic analysis reveals remaining signal power at multiples of the draconitic day. This indicates that the observed SNR data are to some level disturbed by additional multipath signals, in particular for GPS stations that are located in harbors.     

GLOBAL SEA RISE: A REDETERMINATION

It is well established that sea level trends obtained from tide gauge records shorter than about 50-60 years are corrupted by interdecadal sea level variation. However, only a fraction (<25%) of even the long records exhibit globally consistent trends, because of vertical crustal movements. The coherent trends are from tide gauges not at collisional plate boundaries, and not located in or near areas deeply ice-covered during the last glaciation. Douglas (1991), using ICE-3G values for the postglacial (PGR) rebound correction, found 21 usable records (minimum length 60 years, average 76) in 9 oceanographic groups that gave a mean trend for global sea level rise of 1.8 mm/yr ± 0.1 for the period 1880–1980. In that analysis, a significant inconsistency of PGR-corrected U.S. east coast trends was noted, but not resolved. Now, even after eliminating those trends, more (24) long records (minimum 60 years, average 83) are available, including series in the southern hemisphere not previously used. The mean trend of 9 groups made up of the newly-selected records is also 1.8 mm/yr ± 0.1 for global sea level rise over the last 100+ years. A somewhat smaller set of longer records in 8 groups (minimum 70 years, average 91) gives 1.9 mm/yr ± 0.1 for the mean trend. These values are about an order of magnitude larger than the average over the last few millennia. The recent (in historical terms) dramatic increase in the rate of global sea level rise has not been explained, and no acceleration during the last century has been detected. This situation requires additional investigation and confirmation. VLBI/GPS/absolute gravity measurements of crustal motions can be employed to correct many long (60+ years) tide gauge records not now usable because of vertical crustal movements, improving the geographic coverage of sea level trends. Direct altimetric satellite determinations of global sea level rise from satellites such as TOPEX/POSEIDON and its successors can provide an independent estimate in possibly a decade or so, and thereby ascertain whether or not there has been any recent change in the rate of global sea level rise.     

Global-scale validation of model-based load deformation of the Earth's crust from continental watermass and atmospheric pressure variations using GPS

Temporal mass variations in the continental hydrosphere and in the atmosphere lead to changes in the gravitational potential field that are associated with load-induced deformation of the Earth’s crust. Therefore, models that compute continental water storage and atmospheric pressure can be validated by measured load deformation time series. In this study, water mass variations as computed by the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) and surface pressure as provided by the reanalysis product of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction describe the hydrological and atmospheric pressure loading, respectively. GPS observations from 14 years at 208 stations world-wide were reprocessed to estimate admittance factors for the associated load deformation time series in order to determine how well the model-based deformation fits to real data. We found that such site-specific scaling factors can be identified separately for water mass and air pressure loading. Regarding water storage variation as computed by WGHM, weighted global mean admittances are 0.74 ± 0.09, 0.66 ± 0.10, 0.90 ± 0.06 for the north, east and vertical component, respectively. For the dominant vertical component, there is a rather good fit to the observed displacements, and, averaged over all sites, WGHM is found to slightly overestimate temporal variations of water storage. For Europe and North America, with a dense GPS network, site-specific admittances show a good spatial coherence. Regarding regional over- or underestimation of WGHM water storage variations, they agree well with GRACE gravity field data. Globally averaged admittance estimates of pre-computed atmospheric loading displacements provided by the Goddard Geodetic VLBI Group were determined to be 0.88 ± 0.04, 0.97 ± 0.08, 1.13 ± 0.01 for the north, east and vertical, respectively. Here, a relatively large discrepancy for the dominant vertical component indicates an underestimation of corresponding loading predictions.     

Temperature variability in the Bay of Biscay during the past 40 years,from an in situ analysis and a 3D global simulation

A global in situ analysis and a global ocean simulation are used jointly to study interannual to decadal variability of temperature in the Bay of Biscay, from 1965 to 2003. A strong cooling is obtained at all depths until the mid-1970's, followed by a sustained warming over ～30 years. Strong interannual fluctuations are superimposed on this slow evolution. The fluctuations are intensified at the surface and are weakest at ～500 m. A good agreement is found between the observed and simulated temperatures, in terms of mean values, interannual variability and time correlations. Only the decadal trend is significantly underestimated in the simulation. A comparison to satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data over the last 20 years is also presented. The first mode of interannual variability exhibits a quasi-uniform structure and is related to the inverse winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Regarding the vertical structure, most cool and warm anomalies are generated at the surface, with the strongest ones penetrating down to 700 m and lasting up to 5 years. The complete heat budget from 1965 to 2004 is presented, including the contributions of vertical transport, freshwater flux and surface elevation. Interannual anomalies are mainly generated by the surface heat flux, while oceanic transports may become more important at longer time scales.