Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) generally relies on the basic assumption that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed for other similar tectonic regions can be adopted in the considered area. This implies that observed ground motion and its variability at considered sites could be modelled by the selected GMPEs. Until now ground-motion variability has been taken into account in PSHA by integrating over the standard deviation reported in GMPEs, which significantly affects estimated ground motions, especially at very low probabilities of exceedance. To provide insight on this issue, ground-motion variability in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), where many ground-motion records are available, is assessed. Three statistical methods are applied to separate the aleatory variability into source (inter-event), site (inter-site) and residual (intra-event and intra-site) components. Furthermore, the current PSHA procedure that makes the ergodic assumption of equality between spatially and temporal variability is examined. In contrast to the ergodic assumption, several recent studies show that the observed ground-motion variability at an individual location is lower than that implied by the standard deviation of a GMPE. This could imply a mishandling of aleatory uncertainty in PSHA by ignoring spatial variability and by mixing aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the computation of sigma. Station correction coefficients are introduced in order to capture site effects at different stations. The introduction of the non-ergodic assumption in PSHA leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, although this is not the same as traditional epistemic uncertainty modelled using different GMPEs. The epistemic uncertainty due to the site correction coefficients (i.e. mean residuals) could be better constrained for future events if more information regarding the characteristics of these seismic sources and path dependence could be obtained.     

Considerations in Phase Estimation and Event Location Using Small-aperture Regional Seismic Arrays

The global monitoring of earthquakes and explosions at decreasing magnitudes necessitates the fully automatic detection, location and classification of an ever increasing number of seismic events. Many seismic stations of the International Monitoring System are small-aperture arrays designed to optimize the detection and measurement of regional phases. Collaboration with operators of mines within regional distances of the ARCES array, together with waveform correlation techniques, has provided an unparalleled opportunity to assess the ability of a small-aperture array to provide robust and accurate direction and slowness estimates for phase arrivals resulting from well-constrained events at sites of repeating seismicity. A significant reason for the inaccuracy of current fully-automatic event location estimates is the use of f?k slowness estimates measured in variable frequency bands. The variability of slowness and azimuth measurements for a given phase from a given source region is reduced by the application of almost any constant frequency band. However, the frequency band resulting in the most stable estimates varies greatly from site to site. Situations are observed in which regional P- arrivals from two sites, far closer than the theoretical resolution of the array, result in highly distinct populations in slowness space. This means that the f?k estimates, even at relatively low frequencies, can be sensitive to source and path-specific characteristics of the wavefield and should be treated with caution when inferring a geographical backazimuth under the assumption of a planar wavefront arriving along the great-circle path. Moreover, different frequency bands are associated with different biases meaning that slowness and azimuth station corrections (commonly denoted SASCs) cannot be calibrated, and should not be used, without reference to the frequency band employed. We demonstrate an example where fully-automatic locations based on a source-region specific fixed-parameter template are more stable than the corresponding analyst reviewed estimates. The reason is that the analyst selects a frequency band and analysis window which appears optimal for each event. In this case, the frequency band which produces the most consistent direction estimates has neither the best SNR or the greatest beam-gain, and is therefore unlikely to be chosen by an analyst without calibration data.     

Istanbul geotechnical downhole arrays

Geotechnical downhole arrays that record seismic ground response in near-surface layers are increasingly becoming one of the best sources of information for developing, verifying, and calibrating engineering analyses and design methods. Recently, three geotechnical downhole arrays have been installed in the European side of Istanbul, Turkey with efforts of Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI). The existing high seismic activity of the region increases the scientific importance of these downhole arrays. Each array is composed of one accelerometer on the ground surface and three or four borehole accelerometers at various depths along the soil profile with the deepest sensor located at the engineering bedrock level (V_s > 750 m/s). The arrays also provide reference bedrock motion for Rapid Response Network composed of 55 surface instruments operated by KOERI in the west European side of city. An important aspect of this paper is to introduce the recently-completed test sites emphasizing on their potential to generate valuable data for scientific community. Preliminary analysis of the recorded data provides evidence for significant site amplification of ground motion by the surface layers. Comparisons between the recorded and modeled response indicate that V_s 30 alone is a poor indicator of the amplification potential emphasizing the importance of site-specific analyses in predicting the ground response as opposed to empirical approaches.     

Identification of soil degradation during earthquake excitations by Bayesian inference

A Bayesian inference approach is introduced to identify soil degradation behaviours at four downhole array sites. The approach of inference is based on a parametric time‐varying infinite impulse response filter model. The approach is shown to be adaptive to the changes of filter parameters and noise amplitudes. Four sites, including the Lotung (Taiwan), Chiba (Japan), Garner Valley (California), and Treasure Island (California) sites with downhole seismic arrays are analysed. Our results show two major types of soil degradation behaviour: the well‐known strain‐dependent softening, and reduction in stiffness that is not instantaneously recoverable. It is also found that both types of soil degradation are more pronounced in sandy soils than in clayey soils. The mechanism for the second type of soil degradation is not yet clear to the authors and suggested to be further studied. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismological evidence for nonlinear elastic ground behavior during large earthquakes

Amplification of earthquake-induced seismic waves by soft superficial deposits often causes significant damages in the urban areas. In predicting this effect for large future earthquakes, the linear elastic response of soils is customarily assumed. To check this assumption, we have analyzed surface and downhole acceleration data from the SMART1 and SMART2 strong motion arrays in Taiwan, covering peak accelerations of up to 0·3 g. First, frequency-dependent amplification induced by the alluvial deposits at the SMART1 array was estimated using spectral ratio technique, where the records at rock site were taken as a reference motion. Statistically validated reduction in soil amplification in the strong motion relative to the weak motion in the frequency range between approximately 1 and 9 Hz was detected. Secondly, relative site responses between the Pleistocene and recent sedimentary deposits at the SMART2 array were studied. Relative amplification was shown to be clearly dependent on the excitation level. Thirdly, we compared experimentally recorded uphole/downhole spectral ratios on weak and strong ground motion with the theoretical response yielded by the geotechnical code DESRA2 which assumes hysteretic constitutive relationship of soil. Major symptoms of nonlinear ground behavior predicted by the model were found in the observed data. Back-calculation of the shear wave velocities to the depth of 47 m shows nearly 50% decrease in the strongest quakes, also accounted for by the nonlinear soil behavior.     

Northern Aegean Earthquake (Mw=6.9): Observations at three seismic downhole arrays in Istanbul

The Northern Aegean Earthquake (M_w=6.9\M_L=6.5) took place on May 24, 2014 between the islands of Gokceada, Turkey and Samothraki, Greece. The tremors were felt as far as in Istanbul, about 300 km on the East – Northeast (ENE) side of the epicenter. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) of Bogazici University, Turkey operate three downhole arrays in Istanbul, namely Atakoy (ATK), Fatih (FTH) and Zeytinburnu (ZYT) arrays. In this study, waveforms and site response observed at the KOERI operated seismic downhole arrays during the May 2014 Northern Aegean Earthquake (NAE2014) are analyzed in detail and presented. Evaluation of the acceleration records have shown low amplitude but long period and long duration motions at Istanbul. Furthermore, the analyses of the recordings suggest that V_s30 alone may not be a sufficient parameter for the characterization of site amplification.     

Site Response in Las Vegas Valley, Nevada from NTS Explosions and Earthquake Data

We report site response in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) from historical recordings of Nevada Test Site (NTS) nuclear explosions and earthquake recordings from permanent and temporary seismic stations. Our data set significantly improves the spatial coverage of LVV over previous studies, especially in the northern, deeper parts of the basin. Site response at stations in LVV was measured for frequencies in the range 0.2–5.0 Hz using Standard Spectral Ratios (SSR) and Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratios (HVR). For the SSR measurements we used a reference site (approximately NEHRP B ``rock' classification) located on Frenchman Mountain outside the basin. Site response at sedimentary sites is variable in LVV with average amplifications approaching a factor of 10 at some frequencies. We observed peaks in the site response curves at frequencies clustered near 0.6, 1.2 and 2.0 Hz, with some sites showing additional lower amplitude peaks at higher frequencies. The spatial pattern of site response is strongly correlated with the reported depth to basement for frequencies between 0.2 and 3.0 Hz, although the frequency of peak amplification does not show a similar correlation. For a few sites where we have geotechnical shear velocities, the amplification shows a correlation with the average upper 30-meter shear velocities, V₃₀. We performed two-dimensional finite difference simulations and reproduced the observed peak site amplifications at 0.6 and 1.2 Hz with a low velocity near-surface layer with shear velocities 600–750 m/s and a thickness of 100–200 m. These modeling results indicate that the amplitude and frequencies of site response peaks in LVV are strongly controlled by shallow velocity structure.     

Earthquake soil‐structure interaction of nuclear power plants,differences in response to 3‐D, 3 × 1‐D,and 1‐D excitations

In soil‐structure interaction modeling of systems subjected to earthquake motions, it is classically assumed that the incoming wave field, produced by an earthquake, is unidimensional and vertically propagating. This work explores the validity of this assumption by performing earthquake soil‐structure interaction modeling, including explicit modeling of sources, seismic wave propagation, site, and structure. The domain reduction method is used to couple seismic (near‐field) simulations with local soil‐structure interaction response. The response of a generic nuclear power plant model computed using full earthquake soil‐structure interaction simulations is compared with the current state‐of‐the‐art method of deconvolving in depth the (simulated) free‐field motions, recorded at the site of interest, and assuming that the earthquake wave field is spatially unidimensional. Results show that the 1‐D wave‐field assumption does not hold in general. It is shown that the way in which full 3‐D analysis results differ from those which assume a 1‐D wave field is dependent on fault‐to‐site geometry and motion frequency content. It is argued that this is especially important for certain classes of soil‐structure systems of which nuclear power plants subjected to near‐field earthquakes are an example.     

Influence of earthquake frequency content on soil dynamic properties at CAO site

The installation of vertical downhole arrays in the field that record the soil behavior during earthquakes, has opened the opportunity of exploring another alternate method for assessing the soil dynamic properties by solving the inverse problem. This article proposes a methodology for solving this problem using spectral analysis of downhole arrays records. The one-dimensional shear wave propagation model was used, considering a homogeneous-viscoelastic medium. This methodology was applied at the site known as Central de Abasto Oficinas (CAO), which is located in the lake zone of the Mexico City. The results indicate that even relatively low frequencies have a noticeable effect on dynamic soil properties. Shear modulus increases and damping ratio lessens when the frequency rises.     

Nonstationary deconvolution using maximum kurtosis optimization

Deconvolution is an essential step for high-resolution imaging in seismic data processing. The frequency and phase of the seismic wavelet change through time during wave propagation as a consequence of seismic absorption. Therefore, wavelet estimation is the most vital step of deconvolution, which plays the main role in seismic processing and inversion. Gabor deconvolution is an effective method to eliminate attenuation effects. Since Gabor transform does not prepare the information about the phase, minimum-phase assumption is usually supposed to estimate the phase of the wavelet. This manner does not return the optimum response where the source wavelet would be dominantly a mixed phase. We used the kurtosis maximization algorithm to estimate the phase of the wavelet. First, we removed the attenuation effect in the Gabor domain and computed the amplitude spectrum of the source wavelet; then, we rotated the seismic trace with a constant phase to reach the maximum kurtosis. This procedure was repeated in moving windows to obtain the time-varying phase changes. After that, the propagating wavelet was generated to solve the inversion problem of the convolutional model. We showed that the assumption of minimum phase does not reflect a suitable response in the case of mixed-phase wavelets. Application of this algorithm on synthetic and real data shows that subtle reflectivity information could be recovered and vertical seismic resolution is significantly improved.     

Seismic performance analysis of underground structures based on random field model of soil mechanical parameters

Soils with spatial variability are the product of natural history. The mechanical properties tested by soil samples from boreholes in the same soil layer may be different. Underground structure service in surrounding soils, their seismic response is controlled by the deformation of the surrounding soils. The variability of soil mechanical parameters was not considered in the current research on the seismic response of underground structures. Therefore, a random field model was established to describe the spatial variability of surrounding soils based on the random field theory. Then the seismic response of underground structures in the random field was simulated based on the time-domain explicit global FEM analysis, and the soil mechanical parameters and earthquake intensity influencing the seismic response of surrounding soils and underground structures were studied. Numerical results presented that, the randomness of soil parameters does not change the plastic deformation mode of surrounding soils significantly. The variation coefficients of inter-story deformation of structures and lateral deformation of columns are much smaller than that of mechanical parameters, and the randomness of soil parameters has no obvious effect on the structural deformation response.     

上海地震台阵的设计方法

从台阵波数响应特性、子台选址与测试、场地背景噪声分析和记录信号评价等方面，综合对上海地震台阵进行设计，确定了台阵子台的布局点位。本文还介绍了规则台阵与不规则台阵中的几种不同子台布局的台阵波数响应图，并由此得出，采用不规则的子台布局同样可得到性能较好的地震台阵；台阵的子台越多，其响应特性的主峰就越尖锐。     

基于反演基岩地震波的场地调整系数估计

基于KiK-net台阵中73个台站的一维土层模型和从不同地震中筛选的262条地表加速度记录,按照峰值加速度的分档标准和场地分类原则,将这些记录分成了28组.采用一维土层地震反应分析的等效线性化方法,反演计算了基岩输入加速度.通过分别计算各组基于有效峰值加速度EPA的场地放大倍数,并得到了各类场地的有效峰值加速度的调整系...     

Site response analyses using downhole arrays at various seismic hazard levels of Singapore

Local site conditions can significantly influence the characteristics of seismic ground motions. In this study, site response analyses using one-dimensional linear elastic (LE), equivalent-linear (EQL) and nonlinear (NL) approaches are performed at different seismic hazard levels of Singapore. Two seismic stations, namely, the KAP and BES stations located at soft soil sites, are selected from the national network of Singapore. Firstly, site response estimates using the LE, EQL (SHAKE04) and NL (DEEPSOIL) approaches are compared with the borehole recordings. Results show favorable matches between the predictions and the observations at the KAP site, while under-predictions are observed for all the three site effect approaches at the BES site. Secondly, the applicability of the LE, EQL and NL models is examined at different hazard levels of Singapore. It is found that for the hazard level at a return period of 475 years, the computed maximum strain (γ_max) is 0.06% and then the EQL model can provide accurate site response predictions. However, for the hazard level at a return period of 2475 years, the calculated γ_max is larger than 2%, resulting in notable differences in the predictions of different site response models. This study highlights the importance of site effects in seismic hazard analysis of Singapore.     

Identification and modeling of earthquake ground response - I. Site amplification

Seismic downhole-array data provide a unique source of information on actual soil (and overall site) behavior over a wide range of loading conditions that are not readily covered by in-situ or laboratory experimentation procedures. In this paper, free-field downhole-array seismic records are employed to identify and model the recorded response at the Lotung (Taiwan) and Treasure Island (California) sites. At Lotung, a five-accelerometer array recorded the site response during 18 earthquakes (1985–1986). The Treasure Island site was instrumented in 1992 with an array of six accelerometers that recorded a low amplitude earthquake in 1993. Using this downhole data, correlation and spectral analyses are performed to evaluate shear wave propagation characteristics, variation of shear wave velocity with depth and site resonant frequencies and model configurations. In addition, the actual seismic shear stress-strain histories are directly evaluated from the recorded downhole accelerations. These histories provide valuable insight into the mechanisms of site amplification, damping and pore-pressure build-up. Computational simulations of these case histories are performed based on the identified mechanisms of site response. In a companion paper, two additional case histories of site liquefaction are analyzed using records of downhole seismic response.     

Non-linear soil response in ground motions

From both theoretical and empirical studies, we know that a soft soil layer will amplify seismic waves of certain frequencies and cause damage to structures, depending on the physical properties and the thickness of the layer. Most developed cities are situated on a plane or a basin with soft geological strata. Thus, understanding the characteristics of soft soil response to seismic loading is important. Seismologists and engineers are interested in questions of linear versus non-linear soil response and isotropy versus anisotropy as a soil property. The records of the downhole accelerographs of an array in Lotung provide an opportunity to study these problems. The results show that the soil response in Lotung does not have an anisotropy effect, and significant non-linear soil response occurred during the strong ground motions in which peak ground acceleration values at ground surface are larger than 150 gal.     

Identification of accelerometric stations in ITACA with distinctive features in their seismic response

In this work, we analyze the records of the Italian strong motion database (ITACA, ) with the aim of identifying stations affected by site effects that are not captured by standard seismic classification schemes. In particular, we consider four different site classifications, two of them based on geological/geophysical characteristics and two driven by data. For each classification we develop a ground motion prediction equation using a random effect approach to isolate the between-station and within-station distribution of errors. The site coefficients obtained for the different classes confirm that site amplification effects are significant for both the horizontal and vertical components. The between-station error normalized to the standard deviation of the between-station error distribution is then used to identify stations characterized by large errors, attributable to site effects not accounted for by the classification schemes. The results show that large errors can affect the predictions when the site effects are not uniquely related to the reduction of the seismic impedance in the uppermost layers. For example, amplifications of ground motion over the long period range are observed for stations installed within alluvial closed-shape basins, as consequence of locally generated surface waves. For these stations, classifications based on the horizontal to vertical response spectra ratio are not reliable, since amplifications are also affecting the vertical component. Another interesting feature which emerges from the analysis is the significant de-amplification of short period spectral ordinates that seems to be related to stations typically set in at the foundation level of massive structures. To increase the usefulness of the data set, the most important distinctive features of the strong motion stations are documented in the ITACA database reports containing the instrument information and the available geological-geotechnical data.     

An empirical attenuation relationship for Northwestern Turkey ground motion using a random effects approach

Using a random effects model that takes into consideration the correlation of data recorded by a single seismic event, a database consisting of 195 recordings from 17 recent events is employed to develop empirical attenuation relationships for the geometric mean of horizontal peak ground acceleration and 5-percent damped spectral acceleration (S_a). The recordings employed are obtained from strong motion stations operating in Northwestern Turkey and resulted from events that include the Kocaeli (M_w=7.4) and the Düzce (M_w=7.1) earthquakes and their aftershocks as well as other events. By studying differences in standard errors, the random effects model is compared with a fixed effects model that does not account for distinctions between intra- and inter-event variability. Effects of local site conditions are included in the empirical relationships developed. The dependence on frequency of the various model parameters is also studied. Frequency-dependent attenuation coefficients for the proposed random effects models developed are summarized in tables to facilitate their use.     

Shear wave splitting analysis of local earthquakes from dense arrays in Shimian,Sichuan

The Shimian area of Sichuan sits at the junction of the Bayan Har block, Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block, and Yangtze block, where several faults intersect. This region features intense tectonic activity and frequent earthquakes. In this study, we used local seismic waveform data recorded using dense arrays deployed in the Shimian area to obtain the shear wave splitting parameters at 55 seismic stations and thereby determine the crustal anisotropic characteristics of the region. We then analyzed the crustal stress pattern and tectonic setting and explored their relationship in the study area. Although some stations returned a polarization direction of NNW-SSE, a dominant polarization direction of NW-SE was obtained for the fast shear wave at most seismic stations in the study area. The polarization directions of the fast shear wave were highly consistent throughout the study area. This orientation was in accordance with the direction of the regional principal compressive stress and parallel to the trend of the Xianshuihe and Daliangshan faults. The distribution of crustal anisotropy in this area was affected by the regional tectonic stress field and the fault structures. The mean delay time between fast and slow shear waves was 3.83 ms/km, slightly greater than the values obtained in other regions of Sichuan. This indicates that the crustal media in our study area had a high anisotropic strength and also reveals the influence of tectonic complexity resulting from the intersection of multiple faults on the strength of seismic anisotropy.     

TWO-DIMENSIONAL SCATTERING OF P,SV AND RAYLEIGH WAVES: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE VALLEY OF MEXICO

A direct boundary element method for calculating the two-dimensional scattering of seismic waves from irregular topographies and buried valleys due to incident P-, SV- and Rayleigh waves is employed to model a section of the Mexico City Valley. The method has been formulated with isoparametric quadratic boundary elements and contains, with respect to previous works in the field, some improvements that are briefly presented. Because the Mexico City Valley is relatively flat and shallow and the contrast of S-waves between the clays and the basement rock is very high, it is believed that the one-dimensional theory is enough to explain the amplification patterns. Although this is true for most sites, results from recent accelerometric data suggest that two- and three-dimensional models are needed to explain the amplification behaviour at some places. In this work, two accelerometric sites have been chosen: Site 84 to probe that the one-dimensional model works well for most sites, and Site TB, as an example of irregular response. The two-dimensional method presented here was used to model a section of the valley where site TB is located, showing that this method yields results closer to the observations than the one-dimensional approach. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.