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1.
Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
Landsliding of the hillslope regolith is an important source of sediment to the fluvial network in the unglaciated portions of the Himalayas of Nepal. These landslides can produce abrupt increases of up to three orders of magnitude in the fluvial sediment load in less than a day. An analysis of 3 years of daily sediment load and daily rainfall data defines a relationship between monsoonal rainfall and the triggering of landslides in the Annapurna region of Nepal. Two distinct rainfall thresholds, a seasonal accumulation and a daily total, must be overcome before landslides are initiated. To explore the geomorphological controls on these thresholds, we develop a slope stability model, driven by daily rainfall data, which accounts for changes in regolith moisture. The pattern of rainfall thresholds predicted by the model is similar to the field data, including the decrease in the daily rainfall threshold as the seasonal rainfall accumulation increases. Results from the model suggest that, for a given hillslope, regolith thickness determines the seasonal rainfall necessary for failure, whereas slope angle controls the daily rainfall required for failure.  相似文献   

2.
This study presents scenario models for historical variations of climate and slope stability. A model for historical annual patterns of temperature and rainfall was established on the basis of seasonal proxies. A process-based, spatio-temporal model for groundwater variations and slope stability was developed using the GIS environment of the software PCRaster. We applied the slope stability model to study the effects of the different climate scenarios on slope stability for three different hillslopes in the area around Bonn (Germany). The findings indicate three climatic phases with different annual temperature and precipitation patterns over the historic period. The modeling results show that a climatic scenario representing unstable conditions of a transition from the more humid Little Ice Age to dryer recent climate produces the highest slope instabilities. The intensity of this impact, however, varies with the sensitivity of the geomorphic system, i.e. local landforms and lithology, and cannot be generally related to the stability of a specific hillslope. More unstable areas are not necessarily more sensitive to climatic changes: the location of permeable layers (prone to groundwater rise) in relation to sensitive layers (lower strength) and higher gradients (higher stress) influences the sensitivity of a site with respect to climate changes. The presented method is capable of modeling landscape sensitivity to climate change with respect to groundwater-controlled landslides.  相似文献   

3.
Bedrock forms of etch origin result from the interaction of groundwaters and bedrock at the weathering front at the base of the regolith. They are significant for general theories of landscape and landform genesis because they are azonal with respect both to climate and lithology. Two stages of etch form development are recognized: one involves weathering and the formation of a regolith; the second consists of stripping of the regolith and the exposure of the bedrock forms. Although etch forms have been recognized for some two centuries, the concept of etching as a process of landform development has been neglected, particularly in North America.  相似文献   

4.
Bedrock forms of etch origin result from the interaction of groundwaters and bedrock at the weathering front at the base of the regolith. They are significant for general theories of landscape and landform genesis because they are azonal with respect both to climate and lithology. Two stages of etch form development are recognized: one involves weathering and the formation of a regolith; the second consists of stripping of the regolith and the exposure of the bedrock forms. Although etch forms have been recognized for some two centuries, the concept of etching as a process of landform development has been neglected, particularly in North America.  相似文献   

5.
M. Ruff  K. Czurda   《Geomorphology》2008,94(3-4):314
The aim of the study is landslide hazard assessment carried out on a working scale of 1:25 000. The study area within the Northern Calcareous Alps was geologically and geotechnically mapped in order to identify causes and mechanisms of active mass movements. The field surveys were digitised by a Geographical Information System and divided into data layers. The geological units were classified according to their geotechnical properties. All layers were converted into grids and spatially analysed together with a Digital Elevation Model. Comparing the layers with the inventory of active landslides, the prevailing factors leading to sliding movements were identified. Because of the complex tectonic setting and the small number of active landslides, a statistical method of hazard assessment was not applicable. Using the heuristic approach of an index method, the data layers of geotechnical class, bedding conditions, tectonic layouts, slope angles, slope orientations, vegetation and erosion were analysed. The susceptibility of each layer has been evaluated with help of bivariate statistics. The layers have been weighted with indices due to their importance iteratively and were combined into a landslide susceptibility map.  相似文献   

6.
Sanjit K. Deb  Aly I. El-Kadi   《Geomorphology》2009,108(3-4):219-233
The deterministic Stability INdex MAPping (SINMAP) model, which integrates a mechanistic infinite-slope stability model and a hydrological model, was applied to assess susceptibility of slopes in 32 shallow-landslide-prone watersheds of the eastern to southern areas of Oahu, Hawaii, USA. Input to the model includes a 10-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM), an inventory of storm-induced landslides that occurred from 1949 to 2006, and listings of soil-strength and hydrological parameters including transmissivity and steady-state recharge. The study area of ca. 384 km2 was divided into four calibration regions with different geotechnical and hydrological characteristics. All parameter values were separately calibrated using observed landslides as references. The study used a quasi-dynamic scenario of soil wetness resulting from extreme daily rainfall events with a return period of 50 years. The return period was based on almost-90-year-long (1919–2007) daily rainfall records from 26 raingauge stations in the study area. Output of the SINMAP model includes slope-stability-index-distribution maps, slope-versus-specific-catchment-area charts, and statistical summaries for each region.The SINMAP model assessed susceptibility at the locations of all 226 observed shallow landslides and classified these susceptible areas as unstable. About 55% of the study area was predicted as highly unstable, highlighting a critical island problem. The SINMAP predictions were compared to an existing debris-flow-hazard map. Areas classified as unstable in the current study were classified as low-to-moderate and moderate-to-high debris-flow hazard risks by the prior mapping. The slope-stability maps provided by this study will aid in explaining the causes of known landslides, making emergency decisions, and, ultimately mitigating future landslide risks. The maps may be further improved by incorporating heterogeneous and anisotropic soil properties and spatial and temporal variation of rainfalls as well as by improving the accuracy of the DEM and the locations of shallow landslide initiation.  相似文献   

7.
The paper describes a methodology to detect landslide triggering scenarios in geological homogeneous areas and for some specific landslide categories. In these scenarios, the rainfall–landslide relationship as well as the pluviometric load conditions influencing slope instability have to be investigated.The methodology is applied to an area located in northern Calabria (Italy) and affected by widespread and different slope instability phenomena. Outcropped, fractured, and deeply weathered crystalline rock masses, determining geologic homogeneous conditions, are present. In the same area, suitable and homogeneous climatic features have also been found.According to the methodology adopted, the hydrologic analysis of rainfall time-series is initially carried out notwithstanding historical data concerning landslide mobilization, but using simple models to determine critical pluviometric scenarios for the three landslide categories: shallow, medium-deep, and deep. Landslide-triggering scenarios individualized according to this procedure are less significant as compared to the landslide mobilization detected in the study area by means of historical research and ascribed to the three landslide categories according to geomorphologic analysis.Subsequently, the possible landslide triggering scenarios are outlined by carefully investigating the hydrologic analysis limited to the periods identified according to the historical data.In the study area and approximately for all the areas characterized by the outcrop of fractured and deeply weathered crystalline rocks, significant triggering scenarios can be outlined. In particular, shallow landslide triggers could be activated by rainfall events with intensities exceeding 90 mm/day and/or with amounts exceeding 160 mm. As for medium-deep and deep landslides, triggering mechanisms are more complicated; and effective rainfall contribution must be taken into account compared to groundwater storage. Moreover, a more complex link between deep landslides and precipitation is confirmed.The results obtained to date highlight the potential of this methodology, which enables us to define and progressively improve the knowledge framework by means of a work sequence integrating different disciplinary tools and results.  相似文献   

8.
香港岛地区滑坡灾害的时空分布模式   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2  
李军  周成虎  许增旺 《山地学报》2001,19(3):248-252
香港岛是香港特别行政区开发程度最高的区域,人工滑坡及自然滑坡时常发生。滑坡灾害在时间和空间的分布受多种因素的影响并呈现出一定的规律性,本文利用GEO发布的近十多年的滑坡资料对香港岛地区滑坡灾害的时间、空间和时空分布模式进行了分析。  相似文献   

9.
Landslides are frequent natural disasters in mountainous regions, particularly in the Himalayas in India during the southwest monsoon season. Although scientific study of landslides has been in progress for years, no significant achievement has been made to preclude landsliding and allay disasters. This research was undertaken to understand the areal distribution of landslides based on geological formations and geomorphological processes, and to provide more precise information regarding slope instability and mechanisms of failure. After completing a landslide inventory, prepared through field investigation and satellite image analysis, 493 landslides, comprising 131 investigated in the field and 362 identified from satellite imagery, were identified and mapped. The areal distribution of these landslides shows that sites more prone to landsliding have moderate to steep slopes, the lithology of the Lesser Himalayan formations, and excavations for road corridors. Landslide susceptibility zones were delineated for the area using the weight-of-evidence method on the basis of the frequency and distribution of landslides. Weights of selected variables were computed on the basis of severity of triggering factors. The accuracy of landslide susceptibility zones, calculated statistically (R2 = .93), suggests high accuracy of the model for predicting landsliding in the area.  相似文献   

10.
During the last decade the frequency of landslides at river valley slopes eroding into the glaciolacustrine plain in western Estonia has grown considerably. We studied in detail nine recent landslides out of 25 known and recorded sliding events in the area. All landslides occurred at the river banks in otherwise almost entirely flat areas of proglacial deposits capped with marine sands. Glaciolacustrine varved clay is the weakest soil type in the area and holds the largest landslides. Slope stability modelling shows that critical slope gradient for the clay is ≥ 10° and for the marine sand ≥ 20°. Fluvial erosion is the main process in decreasing slope stability at the outer bends of the river meanders. An extra shear stress generated by groundwater flow following the high stand of the groundwater level or rapid water level drawdown in the river channels are responsible for triggering the landslides. Consecutive occurrence of small-scale slides has a direct effect in triggering the large, retrogressive complexes of slides in the glaciolacustrine clay. A landslide hazard zonation map was composed based on digital elevation model and the data on spatial distribution of glaciolacustrine clays and marine sands, and on existing and critical slope angles of these deposits.  相似文献   

11.
There are both internal and external controlling factors leading to slope instability and susceptibility to mass movement processes. This paper explores which external climatic variables of different temporal scales influence the occurrence of high-magnitude landslide events. The investigations were focused on the Wellenkalk-cuesta scarp in the Thuringia Basin (Thüringer Becken) in central Germany. The cuesta scarp is composed of a densely jointed limestone caprock (Wellenkalk), and impermeable mudstones and marls of the Upper Bunter Sandstone (Röt) in the lower part of the slope. Mass movements are a typical feature of the Wellenkalk-scarp. The entire scarp slope length (1000 km) has been systematically mapped and investigated in a comprehensive research project in order to provide reliable information on the spatial distribution and control of the mass movements. More than 20% of the scarp slope has been influenced by various types of Holocene mass movements with strong differences in spatial frequencies. Sixteen high-magnitude landslides (Sturzfließungen) were identified by field inspection and mapping of slope geomorphology. Information on locations, morphometric characteristics, stratigraphic positions and rainfall-related attributes of the scarp slopes affected by the large landslides is presented.Mean annual rainfall amounts decrease from more than 800 mm in the western part of the basin to less than 550 mm in the east. Meteorological statistics on the spatial distribution of heavy rainfall intensities of different durations and return periods show that greatest precipitation intensities in short events (1 h) are reached at the western margin. Differences in rainfall intensities between the western and eastern parts decrease with increasing duration of the events. Where available, event-related meteorological information was collected. The spatial distribution of the landslides is most closely mirrored in the pattern of mean annual precipitation, though this variable is generally not thought to be a satisfactory or reliable climatic controlling factor. No landslides occur below a threshold value of 700 mm. The empirical data show that some general level of average perennial water input into the slope system seems to be of decisive importance for the occurrence of high-magnitude mass movements. Only when the precondition of a more general hydrological disposition is fulfilled, a direct triggering of high-magnitude mass movements by a short-time intensive rainfall period or event can become effective.  相似文献   

12.
This paper analyses the temporal patterns of suspended sediment yield in the Araguás catchment, Central Spanish Pyrenees, a small experimental catchment with extensive badlands. The catchment has been monitored since 2004 to study weathering, erosion, and hydrological and sediment responses to understand the superficial dynamics of a badland area in a relatively humid environment. The development of badlands in the Central Spanish Pyrenees is favoured by the presence of marls and a markedly seasonal climate. The continuous observation of selected physical parameters and environmental variables enables us to establish seasonal patterns of weathering processes and identify those factors that control regolith development. Freeze–thaw cycles in winter and wetting–drying in spring–summer are the main processes involved in regolith weathering, thereby controlling slope development in combination with rainfall-related erosion processes.The 64 floods recorded during the study period (December 2005 to January 2007) were used for a hydrosedimentological analysis. The main observed features indicate that the Araguás catchment reacts to all rainfall events, resulting in steep rising and recession limbs on the hydrograph and a very short time lag. Floods show high suspended sediment concentrations and a heterogeneous temporal distribution related to seasonal variations in surface runoff production. These differences increase the degree of complexity involved in studying sediment response. Suspended sediment concentration and transport mainly depend on rainfall volume, maximum rainfall intensity, peak flow, and runoff occurrence. Finally, the similarities among the obtained hydrographs, sedigraphs, and hyetographs, in combination with the rapid response of most of the floods, suggest a large contribution of overland flow, derived mainly from infiltration excess runoff upon badland areas. Accordingly, the significant correlations obtained between rainfall intensity and sediment concentration (mainly during the dry season), which suggest a single source area for both runoff and sediment, also support the hypothesis of Hortonian hydrological response within badland areas.  相似文献   

13.
Results are presented from eight scaled centrifuge modelling experiments designed to investigate mass movement processes on thawing ice-rich slopes. Four pairs of simple planar slope models were constructed, one in each pair being of sufficient gradient to promote slope failure during soil thaw and the second having a gradient below the threshold for instability. Four frost susceptible soils were used, three were normally consolidated and had different clay contents (2%, 12% and 20%) and the fourth comprised the 20% clay soil, but was over consolidated prior to model testing. Modelling protocols included freezing from the surface downwards under an open hydraulic system, and thawing from the surface downwards under an enhanced gravitational field within the geotechnical centrifuge, thereby utilising scaling laws to simulate correct prototype self weight stresses during thaw. Slopes below the stability threshold gradient were subjected to between 2 and 4 cycles of freezing and thawing, simulating annual cycles. Those above the stability threshold were subjected to only one cycle, since they failed during the first thaw phase. Thermal conditions, pore water pressures, surface movements, and profiles of displacement are reported. Measured pore pressures are used in slope stability analyses based on a simple planar infinite slope model. Profiles of solifluction shear strain and mechanisms of slope failure are both shown to be sensitive to small changes in soil properties, particularly clay content and stress history. In all cases, pore pressures rose rapidly immediately following thaw, remained below the threshold for failure in low gradient models, but exceeding the threshold to trigger landslides on steeper slopes. Upward seepage of melt water away from the thaw front contributed to loss of shear strength. Mechanisms of slope failure differed between test soils, ranging from mudflow in non-cohesive silt to active layer detachment sliding in over consolidated silt–clay. During solifluction, shear strain was greatest at the surface in non-cohesive silt and decreased rapidly with depth, but in test soils containing clay, the zone of maximum shear strain was located lower in the displacement profiles.  相似文献   

14.
《Geomorphology》2007,83(1-2):1-13
Weathering and erosion processes are investigated using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) imaging and the quantification of geomorphic patterns at the edges of a lateritic plateau overlying ultramafic rocks in the north western region of the main island of New Caledonia (Southwest Pacific). The obtained ERT images document the structure and long-term evolution of the regolith, while source area parameters such as area (A) local slope above channel head (tanθ) and longitudinal river profiles allow the characterization of contrasting geomorphic patterns around the plateau. The geo-electrical profiles show a succession of hard rock protrusions and weathering troughs, whose depth varies greatly. The area–slope relationship allows the distinction between saprolite- and ferricrete-mantled source areas. The former could result from a regolith erosion process by shallow landslides; the latter from a secondary ferruginization process of reworked lateritic debris. The deepest troughs underlie saprolite-mantled source areas above channel heads, which are characterized by a low permeability saprolite, relatively high slope gradient, and lower area/slope ratios. Such source areas generate fairly high runoff, sustaining rivers and creeks with relatively high erosion power. The ferricrete-mantled source areas are characterized by higher permeability and area/slope ratios, leading to lower runoff and less erosion but further chemical rock weathering. The ferricrete of those source areas acts as a protective hardcover against mechanical erosion of the underlying regolith. This ferricrete reworks, at least partly, allochtonous lateritic materials inherited from a previous disaggregated ferricrete that suggests past erosion processes driven by hydro-climatic condition changes.  相似文献   

15.
Dozens of references recognizing pediment landforms in widely varying lithologic, climatic, and tectonic settings suggest a ubiquity in pediment forming processes on mountain piedmonts worldwide. Previous modeling work illustrates the development of a unique range in arid/semiarid piedmont slope (< 0.2 or 11.3°) and regolith thickness (2–4 m) that defines pediments, despite varying the initial conditions and domain characteristics (initial regolith thickness, slope, distance from basin to crest, topographic perturbations, and boundary conditions) and process rates (fluvial sediment transport efficiency and weathering rates). This paper expands upon the sensitivity analysis through numerical simulation of pediment development in the presence of spatially varying rock type, various base level histories, various styles of sediment transport, and various rainfall rates to determine how pediment development might be restricted in certain environments. This work suggests that in landscapes characterized by soil and vegetation types that favor incisive fluvial sediment transport styles coupled with incisive base level conditions, pediment development will be disrupted by the roughening of sediment mantled surfaces, thereby creating spatial variability in topography, regolith thickness, and bedrock weathering rates. Base level incision rates that exceed the integrated sediment flux along a hillslope derived from upslope weathering and sediment transport on the order of 10− 3 m y− 1 restrict pediment development by fostering piedmont incision and/or wholesale removal (stripping) of regolith mantles prior to footslope pediment development. Simulations illustrate an insensitivity to alternating layers of sandstone and shale 3–15 m thick oriented in various geometric configurations (vertical, horizontal, and dip-slope) and generating different regolith hydrologic properties and exhibiting weathering rate variations up to 3-fold. Higher fluxes and residence times of subsurface groundwater in more humid environments, as well as dissolution-type weathering, lead to a thickening of regolith mantles on erosional piedmonts on the order of 101 m and an elimination of pediment morphology. An initial test of the model sensitivity analysis in arid/semiarid environments, for which field reconnaissance and detailed geomorphic mapping indicate the presence of pediments controlled by climatic conditions (soil hydrologic properties, vegetation characteristics, and bedrock weathering style) that are known and constant, supports our modeling results that pediments are more prevalent in hydrologically-open basins.  相似文献   

16.
“Stone runs” is the Falklands vernacular term for openwork boulder accumulations, which include extensive blockstreams like the famous Darwin “stone-river” and associated features such as stone stripes. Since the early 20th century, they have been interpreted as the product of a suite of periglacial processes, including frost-wedging, gelifluction, frost heave, frost-sorting and snowmelt runoff. Following a literature review, the results of recent field investigations of the valley-floor blockstreams of East Falkland are presented. Access to the internal structure of these forms provides evidence for the existence of a three-fold profile, with clear vertical size gradation presenting striking similarities with an inverted weathering profile. Micromorphological analyses, SEM, XRD, thin sections and grain-size analyses lead to the hypothesis of an alternative model of stone run formation. It is suggested that the material forming the stone run profile lato sensu (including the superficial pavement) is not of periglacial origin, but derives directly from the stripping and accumulation downslope of a regolith, possibly Tertiary in age and formed under subtropical or temperate conditions. The valley-floor stone runs should, therefore, be considered as complex polygenetic landforms that may have formed according to a six-stage scenario, including in situ chemical weathering, regolith stripping by mass movements, soil formation, further regolith stripping, downslope accumulation and matrix washing-out (all phases possibly achieved by the Early Quaternary). Periglacial reworking of the stone run material would have operated at a “final” stage, i.e. during Quaternary cold stages, with boulder bioweathering and limonite-staining operating during the temperate intervals including the present one. The suggested antiquity of the Falklands blockstreams is in accordance with Caine's pioneer interpretation of Tasmania blockfields and with recent analyses and cosmogenic datings of blockfields from Scandinavia and North America.  相似文献   

17.
泾河流域上游景观尺度植被类型对水文过程的影响   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
选择具有土石山区的泾河流域上游为研究对象,应用生态水文模型SWIM对上游景观尺度下各植被类型水文效应进行了模拟,并针对上游土石山区和黄土区分海拔段进行了植被分布的水文格局影响分析。结果表明:泾河流域上游的森林、农田、草地各植被类型的蒸散及组分、径流深和土壤深层渗漏各水文过程具有显著差异,不同区域(土石山区和黄土区)的同一植被类型的各水文过程明显不同;同时,植被景观格局存在区域和海拔差异,这使得不同区域和海拔段的各水文过程有所不同。如在土石山区,以森林为主的海拔段2 250-2 922 m降水量和蒸散量均最大(分别为641 mm和484 mm),以农田、草地和森林均有分布的海拔段1 750-2 250 m降水量较大(590 mm),但蒸散量最低(仅为434 mm);而在较为干旱的黄土区(降水量为514 mm)以农田和草地为主两个海拔段(1 026-1 350 m和1 350-1 750 m)的蒸散量较高(分别为458 mm和440 mm)。另外,从各水文过程要素与降水的比值看,两个区域之间差异比较明显,但同一区域不同海拔段间差异不明显。  相似文献   

18.
A number of prehistoric landslides and rock avalanches occurred in the folded and faulted section of the Molasse Zone in Vorarlberg, Austria. Some developed into a Sturzstrom, defined as a ‘rapidly moving fluidised mass movement of large volumes of rock, derived from the disintegration of a falling rock mass, that spread under the influence of gravity’. Their impact on the landscape usually is related to obstruction of rivers and valleys.In this paper, we analyse the geomorphology and the failure mechanism of a relative small ‘Sturzstrom’. The failure mechanism can be described as a ‘buckling failure’. The morphological situation indicates that failure took place after local deglaciation by the end of the Upper Würm. The period of failure coincides with glacial and ice-marginal remnants, which developed between 15.000 and 14.600 BP. The lithological sequence and rock structure, as well as the impact of the processes related to the former glacial environment, were major causal conditions. The rock sequence consists of conglomerates, sandstone layers, and marls. Next to glacial scouring, which increased the inclination of the valley slopes, the effect of late-glacial unloading and postglacial processes, such as weathering and fluvial erosion, subsequently weakened the mass rock fabric until failure occurred.Discontinuity orientation measurements, geostructural and geomechanical conditions, and the former hydrological and geomorphological conditions support bucklings failure. In fact, three-hinge buckling may have occurred. The frontal section of the Sturzstrom consists mainly of large conglomerate blocks, averaging 1.5 m3 in volume, although megablocks, reaching of up to 4000 m3, are present as well. The volume of the entire Sturzstrom equals approximately 10×107 m3. Present activity is only restricted to minor rock falls derived from the conglomerates and mudflows originating from the marl layers.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract

The component of gravitational acceleration parallel to the slope of the local surface partly determines the state of slope stability and the kinematics of flow under gravity on that slope. Geographical information systems based on digital elevation models offer the potential to be able to map this variable and permit the modelling of a variety of stability criteria and surface processes including landslides, rock avalanches, pyroclastic flows and lava flows. Three types of models and the basic map operations required to run them are discussed. The models are as follows: (i) sites of potential shallow slope failure (e.g. landslides), (ii) maps of flow deposition based on energy balance calculations (e.g. rock avalanches) and (iii) finite difference, initial value type simulations of dynamic flow (e.g. lava flows). The potential value of these models to hazard assessment is great but their application in specific cases must be assessed with reference to the accuracy of the digital elevation model used.  相似文献   

20.
Geomorphological information can be combined with decision-support tools to assess landslide hazard and risk. A heuristic model was applied to a rural municipality in eastern Cuba. The study is based on a terrain mapping units (TMU) map, generated at 1:50,000 scale by interpretation of aerial photos, satellite images and field data. Information describing 603 terrain units was collected in a database. Landslide areas were mapped in detail to classify the different failure types and parts. Three major landslide regions are recognized in the study area: coastal hills with rockfalls, shallow debris flows and old rotational rockslides denudational slopes in limestone, with very large deep-seated rockslides related to tectonic activity and the Sierra de Caujerí scarp, with large rockslides. The Caujerí scarp presents the highest hazard, with recent landslides and various signs of active processes. The different landforms and the causative factors for landslides were analyzed and used to develop the heuristic model. The model is based on weights assigned by expert judgment and organized in a number of components such as slope angle, internal relief, slope shape, geological formation, active faults, distance to drainage, distance to springs, geomorphological subunits and existing landslide zones. From these variables a hierarchical heuristic model was applied in which three levels of weights were designed for classes, variables, and criteria. The model combines all weights into a single hazard value for each pixel of the landslide hazard map. The hazard map was then divided by two scales, one with three classes for disaster managers and one with 10 detailed hazard classes for technical staff. The range of weight values and the number of existing landslides is registered for each class. The resulting increasing landslide density with higher hazard classes indicates that the output map is reliable. The landslide hazard map was used in combination with existing information on buildings and infrastructure to prepare a qualitative risk map. The complete lack of historical landslide information and geotechnical data precludes the development of quantitative deterministic or probabilistic models.  相似文献   

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