基于海洋气候数据集的区域海平面变化非线性预测

本文基于中国首套长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的全球海洋气候数据集产品, 利用1993年1月至2015年12月的山东半岛近海海平面异常数据, 构建了基于集合经验模式分解(EEMD)和长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)的海平面非线性变化组合预测模型。EEMD可以得到海平面异常的各周期项、线性趋势及残差部分, LSTM模型可对其进行逐个预测并重构得到最终的海平面异常预测结果。EEMD-LSTM组合模型海平面异常预测的均方根误差仅为25.87 mm, 取得了令人满意的效果。基于该组合模型预测2016-2025年山东半岛近海海平面上升速率将达到3.54 mm·a^-1。     

环日本岛沿岸海平面长期变化特征与机制的研究

利用环日本岛沿岸38个验潮站连续36 a的实测水位资料,分析了环日本岛沿岸平均海平面的长期变化特征,结果表明平均海平面的异常变化在1984年前后发生较大转折,近20多年来主要呈现持续上升趋势,部分站位在1997年前后也有较明显的下降趋势,表明海平面的长期变化中存在较长周期的波动情况。通过对所有验潮站的日平均海平面序列进行平均,发现与西北太平洋SST异常变化呈正相关,相关系数为0.908;与太平洋年代际变化(PDO)指数呈负相关,相关系数为-0.6;与西北太平洋风旋度场的异常变化呈正相关,相关系数为0.402。结果表明环日本岛沿岸平均海平面的长期变化受到海水热膨胀效应、太平洋年代际变化以及风应力引起的海水堆积和流失等因素的影响。同时,发现从2000年开始西北太平洋的SST开始下降,而平均海平面仍然在持续上升,其上升原因还需作进一步研究与探讨。     

广西钦州湾晚全新世红树林演变及对海平面变化的响应

Mangroves, widely distributed along the coasts of tropical China, are influenced by Asia monsoon, relative sea level change and enhanced human activity. To predict the impacts of future climate change on mangrove ecosystems, it can be understood by reconstructing past mangrove dynamics using proxies preserved in coastal sediments. In this study, we quantitatively partitioned buried organic matter(OM) sources, collected from a vulnerable mangrove swamp in the Qinzhou Bay of northwestern South China Sea, using a ternary end-member mixing model of δ~(13)C and C:N values. Mangrove-derived OM(MOM) contribution was used as a tracer for mangrove development since 2.34 cal ka BP. This information, together with paleoclimate records(i.e.,speleothem δ~(18)O values, sea level change, grain size parameters) and human activity, was used to divide mangrove development into three stages during the late Holocene: relative flourish(2.34–1.13 cal ka BP), relative degradation(1.13–0.15 cal ka BP) and further degradation(0.15–0 cal ka BP). Before 1.13 cal ka BP, mangroves flourished with a high MOM contribution((88.9±10.6)%), corresponding to stable and high sea level under a warm and humid climate. After 1.13 cal ka BP, rapid fall in relative sea level coupled with the strengthening of the Asian winter monsoon, resulted in mangrove degradation and MOM reduction((62.4±18.9)%). Compared with air temperature and precipitation, the relative sea level fall was the main controlling factor in mangrove development before entering the Anthropocene(the time of the Industrial Revolution). After ～150 cal a BP, reclamation of mangrove swamps to shrimp ponds is the main factor causing mangrove degradation and MOM reduction.     

Impact of dynamic feedbacks between sedimentation,sea-level rise,and biomass production on near-surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation

Salt marshes accrete both organic and inorganic sediments. Here we present analytical and numerical models of salt marsh sedimentation that, in addition to capturing inorganic processes, explicitly account for above- and belowground organic processes including root growth and decay of organic carbon. The analytical model is used to examine the bias introduced by organic processes into proxy records of sedimentation, namely ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb. We find that accretion rates estimated using ²¹⁰Pb will be less than accretion rates estimated using the ¹³⁷Cs peak in steadily accreting marshes if (1) carbon decay is significant and (2) data for ²¹⁰Pb extend below the ¹³⁷Cs peak. The numerical model expands upon the analytical model by including belowground processes such as compaction and root growth, and by explicitly tracking the evolution of aboveground biomass and its effect on sedimentation rates. Using the numerical model we explore how marsh stratigraphy responds to sediment supply and the rate of sea-level rise. It is calibrated and tested using an extensive data set of both marsh stratigraphy and measurements of vegetation dynamics in a Spartina alterniflora marsh in South Carolina, USA. We find that carbon accumulation in marshes is nonlinearly related to both the supply of inorganic sediment and the rate of sea-level rise; carbon accumulation increases with sea-level rise until sea-level rise reaches a critical rate that drowns the marsh vegetation and halts carbon accumulation. The model predicts that changes in carbon storage resulting from changing sediment supply or sea-level rise are strongly dependent on the background sediment supply: if inorganic sediment supply is reduced in an already sediment poor marsh the storage of organic carbon will increase to a far greater extent than in a sediment-rich marsh, provided that the rate of sea-level rise does not exceed a threshold. These results imply that altering sediment supply to estuaries (e.g., by damming upstream rivers or altering littoral sediment transport) could lead to significant changes in the carbon budgets of coastal salt marshes.     

台湾东部黑潮区海源碳的沉积物记录与近千年来生产力与气候变化的反演

本文基于对台湾以东黑潮主流区沉积物的粒度和定年,通过解析沉积物总有机碳及其同位素组成获取海源碳变化特征,首次报道了该海区近千年来的初级生产力与气候变化反演结果。研究显示,台湾以东黑潮主流区近千年来的平均沉积速率为34.44 cm/ka,沉积环境较为稳定。另外,台湾以东黑潮主流区沉积物中的总有机碳和总氮含量主要受台湾东部河流输入、海洋初级生产力的沉降过程、成岩作用和粒度效应影响。对沉积物海源碳的定量估算表明,近千年来台湾以东黑潮主流区沉积物中40.02%~73.88%的有机质为海源输入,陆源输送次之。同时,近千年来台湾以东黑潮主流区沉积物记录较好地反映了中世纪暖期、小冰期和现代暖期3个气候变化阶段。1150-1420年期间,沉积物中总有机碳、总氮和海源碳含量缓慢升高,较高的表层海水温度有利于海洋初级生产力水平的升高。1500-1840年期间,较低的表层海水温度和亚洲大陆风尘输送水平使得海洋初级生产力较低,同时台湾地区小冰期较高的降水量有利于台湾东部河流向海输送,增强的水动力条件可能会加强海底沉积物的东移,从而导致该区域沉积物中总有机碳含量的增加。进入现代暖期以来研究区的海水温度逐渐增暖,而东亚季风强度和降水量却表现出波动的年际变化特征,并体现在研究区1930-1950年和1970年期间沉积物的中值粒径、总有机碳和总氮含量的快速波动。     

Regional scenarios of sea level rise and impacts on Basque (Bay of Biscay) coastal habitats,throughout the 21st century

Global climate models have predicted a rise on mean sea level of between 0.18 m and 0.59 m by the end of the 21st Century, with high regional variability. The objectives of this study are to estimate sea level changes in the Bay of Biscay during this century, and to assess the impacts of any change on Basque coastal habitats and infrastructures. Hence, ocean temperature projections for three climate scenarios, provided by several atmosphere–ocean coupled general climate models, have been extracted for the Bay of Biscay; these are used to estimate thermosteric sea level variations. The results show that, from 2001 to 2099, sea level within the Bay of Biscay will increase by between 28.5 and 48.7 cm, as a result of regional thermal expansion and global ice-melting, under scenarios A1B and A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A high-resolution digital terrain model, extracted from LiDAR, data was used to evaluate the potential impact of the estimated sea level rise to 9 coastal and estuarine habitats: sandy beaches and muds, vegetated dunes, shingle beaches, sea cliffs and supralittoral rock, wetlands and saltmarshes, terrestrial habitats, artificial land, piers, and water surfaces. The projected sea level rise of 48.7 cm was added to the high tide level of the coast studied, to generate a flood risk map of the coastal and estuarine areas. The results indicate that 110.8 ha of the supralittoral area will be affected by the end of the 21st Century; these are concentrated within the estuaries, with terrestrial and artificial habitats being the most affected. Sandy beaches are expected to undergo mean shoreline retreats of between 25% and 40%, of their width. The risk assessment of the areas and habitats that will be affected, as a consequence of the sea level rise, is potentially useful for local management to adopt adaptation measures to global climate change.     

pH variability off Goa (eastern Arabian Sea) and the response of sea urchin to ocean acidification scenarios

The increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration in the last few decades has resulted in a decrease in oceanic pH. In this study, we assessed the natural variability of pH in coastal waters off Goa, eastern Arabian Sea. pH_T showed large variability (7.6–8.1) with low pH conditions during south-west monsoon (SWM), and the variability is found to be associated with upwelling rather than freshwater runoff. Considering that marine biota inhabiting dynamic coastal waters off Goa are exposed to such wide range of natural fluctuations of pH, an acidification experiment was carried out. We studied the impact of low pH on the local population of sea urchin Stomopneustes variolaris (Lamarck, 1816). Sea urchins were exposed for 210 days to three treatments of pH_T: 7.96, 7.76 and 7.46. Our results showed that S. variolaris at pH_T 7.96 and 7.76 were not affected, whereas the ones at pH_T 7.46 showed adverse effects after 120 days and 50% mortality by 210 days. However, even after exposure to low pH for 210 days, 50% organisms survived. Under low pH conditions (pH_T 7.46), the elemental composition of sea urchin spines exhibited deposition of excess Sr²⁺ as compared to Mg²⁺ ions. We conclude that although the sea urchins would be affected in future high CO₂ waters, at present they are not at risk even during the south-west monsoon when low pH waters reside on the shelf.     

涌潮沉积揭示长江河口湾全新世最高海面

海面变化对沿海地区的自然环境和社会经济有着重要影响,了解过去海面变化规律可以为预测未来海面上升情景提供参考依据。以长江古河口湾湾顶附近的扬州市昌建广场建筑工地所揭示的自然沉积剖面（CJGC剖面）为研究对象,通过详细调研,在剖面下部发现了保存有海相贝壳的涌潮沉积,为研究全新世最高海面和最大海侵提供了绝佳的地质材料。通过系统的沉积相与光释光（OSL）年代学研究,重建了古河口湾中全新世以来沉积环境的变化过程。结果表明,该地点中全新世以来经历了从陆相→潮滩→河口沙坝→河漫滩的沉积环境变迁,清晰显示了由海侵到海退的变化过程。OSL测年数据表明长江河口全新世最高海面和河口湾湾顶最大海侵出现的年代约为5.6 ka,当时对应的海面高度不低于海拔1.3 m,这一时期的高海面在世界多地均有记录。     

东海海平面变化的综合分析

利用1993年1月至2011年12月的卫星高度计数据,研究了东海海平面变化的季节信号、线性趋势和低频信号,并结合风应力资料、Ishii温盐数据和海表面温度数据分析了季节信号和低频信号的驱动机制。东海季节性海平面变化主要由年信号组成,其占海平面变化的大部分;年信号振幅和相位的分布具有明显的区域差异;东海季节性海平面变化主要受海面风和海水热膨胀驱动,而且在不同季节、不同区域,两种驱动机制的作用存在明显差异,主导地位也不断变化;季节信号还受到黑潮的一定影响。1993-2011年间东海海平面线性上升速率为3.28mm/a,各海域海平面上升速率不同。东海海平面变化低频信号与比容海平面变化低频信号具有显著相关性,最大相关系数为0.55;东海比容海平面变化低频信号与SOI低频信号同样具有一定的相关性,最大相关系数为0.3。ENSO通过大气环流和黑潮洋流等对东海海域的比容海平面变化产生影响,比容海平面变化进而对东海年际间海平面变化产生调制作用,因此ENSO可以通过东海年际间比容海平面变化对东海年际间海平面变化产生影响。     

Tracking historical storm records from high-barrier lagoon deposits on the southeastern coast of Hainan Island,China

The relationship between storm activity and global warming remains uncertain. To better understand storm–climate relationships, coastal lagoon deposits are increasingly being investigated because they could provide high-resolution storm records long enough to cover past climate changes. However, site-specific sediment dynamics and high barriers may bias storm reconstructions. Here, we aimed to investigate these factors through the reconstruction of five distinct storm records (XCL-01, XC-03, XC-06, XC-07, XC-08) from different water depths in a lagoon with a high barrier (i.e., Xincun Lagoon of Hainan Island). Sediment cores were characterized using high-resolution grain size and XRF measurements, to identify storm events. These data were coupled with a numerical simulation to obtain bed shear stress data with high-spatial resolution to better understand storm-induced sediment transport mechanisms. 210Pb dating and Pb pollution chronostratigraphic markers indicated that the chronology of the storm deposit sequences of the cores span the period between 117 a and 348 a. The grain size and XRF results indicated numerous, highly variable and short-duration fluctuations, suggesting that storm-induced coarse-grained sediments were deposited at these core sites. The inconsistent storm events recorded in these cores suggest that these sites have different preservation potentials for storm deposits. However, the consistence between storm sediment records and historical documents for Core XCL-01 indicates that high-barrier lagoons could provide long-term storm event records with high preservation potential.     

中国东海海平面长期变化与趋势研究

From the analyses of the satellite altimeter Maps of Sea Level Anomaly(MSLA) data, tidal gauge sea level data and historical sea level data, this paper investigates the long-term sea level variability in the East China Sea(ECS).Based on the correlation analysis, we calculate the correlation coefficient between tidal gauge and the closest MSLA grid point, then generate the map of correlation coefficient of the entire ECS. The results show that the satellite altimeter MSLA data is effective to observe coastal sea level variability. An important finding is that from map of correlation coefficient we can identify the Kuroshio. The existence of Kuroshio decreases the correlation between coastal and the Pacific sea level. Kurishio likes a barrier or a wall, which blocks the effect of the Pacific and the global change. Moreover, coastal sea level in the ECS is mainly associated with local systems rather than global change. In order to calculate the long-term sea level variability trend, the empirical mode decomposition(EMD) method is applied to derive the trend on each MSLA grid point in the entire ECS. According to the 2-D distribution of the trend and rising rate, the sea level on the right side of the axis of Kuroshio rise faster than in its left side. This result supports the barrier effect of Kuroshio in the ECS. For the entire ECS, the average sea level rose 45.0 mm between 1993 and 2010, with a rising rate of(2.5±0.4) mm/a which is slower than global average.The relatively slower sea level rising rate further proves that sea level rise in the ECS has less response to global change due to its own local system effect.     

长江入海泥沙的变化趋势与上海滩涂资源的可持续利用

在分析1950年以来系列监测资料的基础上,对今后20年长江入海泥沙量和口门区5 m等深线以浅滩涂的冲淤趋势作了初步估计,结果表明:(1) 人类活动已导致长江入海泥沙通量减少约2/3.大通站输沙率从20世纪60年代后期开始出现趋势性下降,尤其是80年代后期以来输沙率下降加快.1996～2005年的输沙率(2.80亿t/a)比1956～1965年的输沙率(5.04亿t/a)下降了2.04亿t/a,降幅达44%;三峡水库蓄水后的2003～2005年大通站输沙率(1.89亿t/a)比1956～1965年降低63%.(2) 滩涂淤涨速率明显下降.河口口门区4大滩涂(崇明东滩、横沙东滩、九段沙和南汇东滩)的合计淤涨速率在1958～1977年、1977～1996年和1996～2004年3个时段分别为19.1、5.1和4.9 km2/a.(3) 目前上海5 m等深线以上的滩涂面积主要分布在口门4大滩涂,它们分别是崇明东滩(701 km2)、横沙东滩(464 km2)、九段沙(410 km2)和南汇东滩(462 km2),占总面积的80%.(4) 考虑北槽深水航道工程的影响后得出,大通站输沙率(108 t/a)和口门区4大滩涂淤涨速率(km2/a)之间的关系为Y=9.51X-29.1,r=0.925.预测表明:2006～2015年和2016～2025年时段大通站平均输沙率估计将分别降至1.5和1.2亿t/a左右.根据上述关系,2006～2015年和2016～2025年时段口门4大滩涂5 m等深线以上面积将分别蚀退148和177 km2,即20年累计损失占现有面积的13.8%.在现有工程条件下,今后20年口门的4大滩涂5 m等深线以上的面积累计损失可能为10%左右.因此,作为上海滩涂资源主要来源的长江口门区滩涂淤涨速率在自然条件下随着长江入海泥沙的减少而迅速下降,若无有效的工程保护措施,今后随着长江来沙的进一步降低将出现净的蚀退.采取适当的工程促淤措施,利用高悬沙浓度的有利条件,上海仍可望获得新的滩涂,以实现滩涂资源的可持续利用.     

Response of a hypersaline salt marsh to a large flood and rainfall event along the west coast of southern Africa

The Orange Estuary lost 27% (276 ha) of its wetland area near the mouth as a result of bad management practices during the 1980s. The salt marsh has been unable to recover over the last 20 years because of the persistently high soil and groundwater salinity. In 2006, a 1 in 5 year flood occurred that completely covered the desertified salt marsh and floodplain with freshwater. The flood was followed by an above average (>45 mm) winter rainfall. Soil and groundwater sampled in April and August 2004 were compared with 2006 data to quantify the impact of the flood and rainfall event. It was hypothesised that the two freshwater events would significantly reduce the soil and groundwater salinity. However, the results showed no significant difference in sediment electrical conductivity throughout the soil profile over the four sampling periods. Soil moisture and organic content however increased significantly after these events in the surface soil layer. The flood deposited silt and scoured sand from the surface layers in significant quantities. The depth to groundwater in the desertified marsh retained a similar pattern after the flood despite 15 cm changes in depth in places. In 2004 a clear groundwater electrical conductivity gradient was present extending from the less saline north part of the marsh (0–15 mS cm⁻¹) to the central part (120–135 mS cm⁻¹) and decreasing again towards the south (60–75 mS cm⁻¹). The flood served to even out the groundwater salinity across the desertified marsh (60–90 mS cm⁻¹). The flood and high rainfall had a limited impact on the soil and groundwater characteristics. The few significant changes that were recorded were mostly restricted to the surface soil layers and on a small spatial scale. The rainfall did however create numerous pools of low salinity (<60 mS cm⁻¹) water on the marsh surface that provided a brief opportunity for salt marsh seeds to germinate. A further benefit of the flood was the increased tidal reach into the desertified marsh importing freshwater from the river mouth and exporting salt. Despite these responses it is unlikely that the hypersaline salt marsh will revegetate naturally. Human intervention is needed to ensure the rehabilitation of this important Ramsar site.     

黄河三角洲造陆速率对夏季风强度变化和人类活动的响应

以夏季风强度指数和年均气温作为反映气候变化的指数,以人类净引水量和流域水土保持面积作为反映人类活动变化的指标,并以黄河流域为例,研究了三角洲造陆对气候变化和人类活动的响应.研究表明,夏季风强度指数的变化可分为三个阶段:(1)在1951~1963年夏季风强度指数呈持续增强的变化趋势;(2)在1963~1965年夏季风强度指数呈突变式减弱;(3)在1966~2000年夏季风强度指数保持在较低的水平上,且呈缓慢减弱的趋势.年降水量变化与夏季风强度指数有同步关系.从1950到1970年的年均温度在波动中略呈降低趋势,然而从1970年开始年均温度在波动中具有持续上升的趋势.气候变化会导致入海泥沙通量的变化,并可能进一步导致三角洲造陆速率的变化.黄河三角洲造陆速率、入海泥沙通量在1952~1964年均呈增大的趋势,1964年后则呈减小的趋势,在总体上与夏季风强度指数的变化趋势相同.除了气候变化以外,流域水土保持和引水对三角洲造陆也有影响.多元回归分析表明,三角洲造陆速率随夏季风强度指数的减弱而减小,随年气温的升高而减小,随梯田林草面积的增加而减小,随年净引水量的增加而减小,同时还表明,夏季风强度指数、年均气温、水土保持措施面积和人类净引水量对三角洲造陆速率变化的贡献率分别为34.94%,3.80%,53.82%和7.44%.表示气候变化的两个变量的贡献率之和为38.7%,说明气候变化对黄河三角洲造陆过程的影响是不容忽视的.     

涠洲岛珊瑚礁近千年的发育过程及其对气候变化的响应*

高纬度珊瑚栖息地能否成为气候变暖背景下热带珊瑚物种的“避难所”仍不明确, 南海北部的相关研究更是稀少。本文以取自涠洲岛的2根珊瑚礁沉积岩心为研究对象, 通过U-Th定年、沉积组分分析以及珊瑚种属鉴定等方法, 探讨近千年以来珊瑚礁的发育过程及其对气候变化的响应。研究结果发现, Core1(石螺口)岩心沉积的3个快速堆积阶段分别与罗马暖期、中世纪暖期和现代暖期大致对应; 而2个缓慢堆积阶段则分别与黑暗时代冷期和小冰期大致对应, 证实了温暖的气候对珊瑚礁发育有促进作用, 而寒冷的气候则不利于珊瑚礁的发育; 此外, 现代强烈的人为干扰可能也导致了涠洲岛珊瑚礁的迅速退化。Core2(南湾)中陆源沉积含量高, 珊瑚年龄主要集中在800AD—950AD和现代这两个时间段内, 其原因可能与环境变化、风暴作用及湾内现代珊瑚分布特征有关。通过对比这两个站位的珊瑚礁沉积特征, 本文进一步提出“完全避难所”和“非完全避难所”的概念, 揭示涠洲岛珊瑚可能同时具有低纬度热带珊瑚礁和高纬度珊瑚群落这两种发育特征和趋势。     

南海海平面长期变化及其趋势研究

On the basis of the satellite maps of sea level anomaly(MSLA) data and in situ tidal gauge sea level data,correlation analysis and empirical mode decomposition(EMD) are employed to investigate the applicability of MSLA data,sea level correlation,long-term sea level variability(SLV) trend,sea level rise(SLR) rate and its geographic distribution in the South China Sea(SCS).The findings show that for Dongfang Station,Haikou Station,Shanwei Station and Zhapo Station,the minimum correlation coefficient between the closest MSLA grid point and tidal station is 0.61.This suggests that the satellite altimeter MSLA data are effective to observe the coastal SLV in the SCS.On the monthly scale,coastal SLV in the western and northern part of SCS are highly associated with coastal currents.On the seasonal scale,SLV of the coastal area in the western part of the SCS is still strongly influenced by the coastal current system in summer and winter.The Pacific change can affect the SCS mainly in winter rather than summer and the affected area mostly concentrated in the northeastern and eastern parts of the SCS.Overall,the average SLR in the SCS is 90.8 mm with a rising rate of(5.0±0.4) mm/a during1993–2010.The SLR rate from the southern Luzon Strait through the Huangyan Seamount area to the Xisha Islands area is higher than that of other areas of the SCS.     

Human impacts overwhelm the effects of sea-level rise on Basque coastal habitats (N Spain) between 1954 and 2004

According to coastal measurements, global mean sea-level has risen at a rate of 1.8 mm yr⁻¹ between 1950 and 2000, with large spatial variability at regional scales. Within the Bay of Biscay, trends computed from coastal tide gauges records have revealed that sea-level rise is accelerating over this period of time; this is in agreement with rates obtained from satellite imagery in the open ocean since 1993. The objectives of the present study are: (1) to assess the evidence of the relative sea-level rise on coastal morphology and habitats in the Gipuzkoan littoral zone (Basque coast, northern Spain) for the period 1954–2004, and (2) to evaluate the relative contribution of local anthropogenic versus sea-level rise impacts for explaining inter-supratidal habitat changes. A high-resolution airborne laser altimetry data (LIDAR) has been used to derive a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of 15-cm vertical resolution. Coastal habitats were mapped for two periods, using historic airborne photography (1954) and high-resolution imagery (2004). Analysis of tide gauge records from Santander (northern Spain) has revealed that relative mean sea-level has been rising at a rate of 2.08 ± 0.33 mm yr⁻¹ from 1943 to 2004; this is consistent with sea-level trends from other measurements within the area (St. Jean de Luz and Bilbao), obtained over shorter periods of time, and with previous results obtained in the Bay of Biscay. Based upon this sea-level trend and by means of a LIDAR-based DTM, the results have indicated that the predicted change along the Gipuzkoan coast due to sea-level rise was of 11.1 ha within the 50-yr period. In contrast, comparison of historical and recent orthophotography has detected only 2.95 ha of change, originated possibly from sea-level rise, and 98 ha transformed by anthropogenic impacts. Hence, coastal changes due to sea-level rise might be overwhelmed by excessive human impacts, at the spatial and temporal scales of the analysis. This work highlights that local anthropogenic impact is the major threat to Basque coastal and estuarine habitats, compared with natural erosive processes and global climate change driving forces over recent times.     

Elevation trends and shrink–swell response of wetland soils to flooding and drying

Given the potential for a projected acceleration in sea-level rise to impact wetland sustainability over the next century, a better understanding is needed of climate-related drivers that influence the processes controlling wetland elevation. Changes in local hydrology and groundwater conditions can cause short-term perturbations to marsh elevation trends through shrink–swell of marsh soils. To better understand the magnitude of these perturbations and their impacts on marsh elevation trends, we measured vertical accretion and elevation dynamics in microtidal marshes in Texas and Louisiana during and after the extreme drought conditions that existed there from 1998 to 2000. In a Louisiana marsh, elevation was controlled by subsurface hydrologic fluxes occurring below the root zone but above the 4 m depth (i.e., the base of the surface elevation table benchmark) that were related to regional drought and local meteorological conditions, with marsh elevation tracking water level variations closely. In Texas, a rapid decline in marsh elevation was related to severe drought conditions, which lowered local groundwater levels. Unfragmented marshes experienced smaller water level drawdowns and more rapid marsh elevation recovery than fragmented marshes. It appears that extended drawdowns lead to increased substrate consolidation making it less resilient to respond to future favorable conditions. Overall, changes in water storage lead to rapid and large short-term impacts on marsh elevation that are as much as five times greater than the long-term elevation trend, indicating the importance of long-term, high-resolution elevation data sets to understand the prolonged effects of water deficits on marsh elevation change.     

河流三角洲沉积体系再析

本文试从沉积动力学视角重新剖析河流三角洲沉积体系特征。根据“河流三角洲是同一河流入海物质所形成的集中堆积体”的定义,传统上根据径流、潮汐和波浪而构建的三端元分类图似乎不能概括三角洲的所有类型,河口湾形态、陆架环流和海面变化也有同等的重要性,可形成海湾充填三角洲、远端泥、陆架边缘三角洲这样的端元形态。沉积物重力流也是不可忽视的因素。融合以上各个因素所形成的河流三角洲形态谱系,有助于过程-产物关系的建立。需进一步开展的相关研究包括：① 地层层序中三角洲沉积类型的识别标志,以区分水下三角洲、远端泥,确定陆架边缘三角洲的归属;② 三角洲体系的时空分布及其与沉积记录完整性之间的关系;③ 三角洲演化的终极形态、规模与沉积物收支过程的关系。