一种地震短临前兆信息——震前大气电场异常研究

长期的地震预报观测研究现实表明,可靠地震短临前兆信息的探索是非常困难的,但对于实际有效的地震预报也是至关重要的．本文在分析研究震前准静大气电场异常有可能成为可靠地震短临前兆信息的基础上,利用白家疃地震台20年连续可靠的大气电场及地震观测资料,分析总结了唐山地震后北京200 km范围内多地震期及地震相对平静期异常与近场地震发生间的相关关系;同时,通过对近几年来预先书面上报的观测结果与该段时间内近场实际发生的地震的对比分析,结合近10年来对近场地震书面预报意见的实效检验结果分析,论述了震前准静大气电场异常确有可能成为近场地震短临预报可靠标志的光明前景,并给出了利用震前大气电场观测资料进行地震预测的初步判定指标;最后指出,只要布有相对合理的台网（每万平方公里2～4个台）并通过进一步的探索研究,就有可能在较大地震（MS>5）前给出近场地震三要素预测的较为可信的判定标志．      

Two-dimensional stochastic analysis of flow in leaky confined aquifers subject to spatial and periodic leakage

This paper addresses the issue of flow in heterogeneous leaky confined aquifers subject to leakage. The leakage into the confined aquifer is driven by spatial and periodic fluctuations of water table in an overlying phreatic aquifer. The introduction of leakage leads to non-uniformity in the mean head gradient and results in nonstationarity in hydraulic head and velocity fields. Therefore, a nonstationary spectral approach based on Fourier–Stieltjes representations for the perturbed quantities is adopted to account for the spatial variability of nonstationary head fields. Closed-form expressions for the variances of hydraulic head and specific discharge are developed in terms of statistical properties of hydraulic parameters. The results indicate that the spatiotemporal variations in leakage leads to enhanced variability of the hydraulic head and of the specific discharge, which increase with distance from any arbitrary reference point. The coefficient of leakage and the spatial structure of log transmissivity field and of the amplitude of water table fluctuation are critical in quantifying the variability of the hydraulic head and of the specific discharge.     

有限元方法在地震孕育过程与前兆机理研究中的应用进展

有限元方法的基本思想是将连续的求解区域离散为一组有限个、 且按一定方式相互联结在一起的单元的组合体。 有限元方法是目前应用最为广泛的数值模拟方法, 由于能够将复杂介质的力学本构关系及边界条件问题转化成为常规问题的计算程序, 所以越来越多的地震学者将其应用于地震成因与前兆机理研究中。 该文着重介绍了有限元数值分析方法及其模拟在地震孕育过程与前兆机理研究中的应用进展, 并提出开展小尺度规模如岩石中矿物颗粒之间的力学行为的有限元模拟研究等几点建议。     

Analysis of bridge structures crossing strike-slip fault rupture zones: A simple method for generating across-fault seismic ground motions

This article presents a simple and effective method for generating across-fault seismic ground motions for the analysis of ordinary and seismically isolated bridges crossing strike-slip faults. Based on pulse models available in the literature, two simple loading functions are first proposed to represent the coherent (long-period) components of ground motion across strike-slip faults. The loading functions are then calibrated using actual near-fault ground-motion records with a forward-directivity velocity pulse in the fault-normal direction and a fling-step displacement in the fault-parallel direction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing time history responses and seismic demands of ordinary and seismically isolated bridges obtained from nonlinear response history analyses using the actual ground-motion records and the calibrated loading functions. A comprehensive methodology is also presented for selecting the input parameters of the loading functions based on empirical equations and practical guidelines. Finally, an analysis procedure for bridge structures crossing strike-slip faults is introduced based on the proposed method for generating across-fault ground motions and the parameter selection methodology for the loading functions.     

应用国家数字地震台网的宽频带资料测定国内中强地震的震源机制解

利用剪切位错点源作为震源模型,采用横向均匀的水平层状介质模型作为地壳近似模型,使用F-K波数积分法计算格林函数并拟合理论地震图.在已有理论方法的基础上,利用国家数字地震台网所记录的宽频带数字资料,选取了2002～2003年间发生在国内Ms≥5.4的5个地震事件进行震源机制解测定.并且,将测定结果与HRV的矩心矩张量解、USGS的地震矩张量解、中国地震信息网的速报震源机制解分别进行了对比,通过实际计算表明测定结果是可靠的.从而初步验证了在中国国家数字地震台网中使用F-K波数积分法测定震源机制解的可行性和准确性.     

Elucidating geochemical response of shallow heterogeneous aquifers to CO2 leakage using high-performance computing: Implications for monitoring of CO2 sequestration

Predicting and quantifying impacts of potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) leakage into shallow aquifers that overlie geologic CO₂ storage formations is an important part of developing reliable carbon storage techniques. Leakage of CO₂ through fractures, faults or faulty wellbores can reduce groundwater pH, inducing geochemical reactions that release solutes into the groundwater and pose a risk of degrading groundwater quality. In order to help quantify this risk, predictions of metal concentrations are needed during geologic storage of CO₂. Here, we present regional-scale reactive transport simulations, at relatively fine-scale, of CO₂ leakage into shallow aquifers run on the PFLOTRAN platform using high-performance computing. Multiple realizations of heterogeneous permeability distributions were generated using standard geostatistical methods. Increased statistical anisotropy of the permeability field resulted in more lateral and vertical spreading of the plume of impacted water, leading to increased Pb²⁺ (lead) concentrations and lower pH at a well down gradient of the CO₂ leak. Pb²⁺ concentrations were higher in simulations where calcite was the source of Pb²⁺ compared to galena. The low solubility of galena effectively buffered the Pb²⁺ concentrations as galena reached saturation under reducing conditions along the flow path. In all cases, Pb²⁺ concentrations remained below the maximum contaminant level set by the EPA. Results from this study, compared to natural variability observed in aquifers, suggest that bicarbonate (HCO₃⁻) concentrations may be a better geochemical indicator of a CO₂ leak under the conditions simulated here.     

Cost-efficient management of coastal aquifers via recharge with treated wastewater and desalination of brackish groundwater: application to the Akrotiri basin and aquifer,Cyprus

Abstract

We investigate the general methodology for an intensive development of coastal aquifers, described in a companion paper, through its application to the management of the Akrotiri aquifer, Cyprus. The Zakaki area of that aquifer, adjacent to Lemessos City, is managed such that it permits a fixed annual agricultural water demand to be met, as well as and a fraction of the water demand of Lemessos, which varies according to available surface water. Effluents of the Lemessos wastewater treatment plant are injected into the aquifer to counteract the seawater intrusion resulting from the increased pumping. The locations of pumping and injection wells are optimized based on least-cost, subject to meeting the demand. This strategy controls sea intrusion so effectively that desalting of only small volumes of slightly brackish groundwater is required over short times, while ～2.3 m³ of groundwater is produced for each 1 m³ of injected treated wastewater. The cost over the 20-year period 2000–2020 of operation is ～40 M€ and the unit production cost of potable water is under 0.2 €/m³. The comparison between the deterministic and stochastic analyses of the groundwater dynamics indicates the former as conservative, i.e. yielding higher groundwater salinity at the well. The Akrotiri case study shows that the proposed aquifer management scheme yields solutions that are preferable to the widely promoted seawater desalination, also considering the revenues from using the treated wastewater for irrigation.

Citation Koussis, A. D., Georgopoulou, E., Kotronarou, A., Mazi, K., Restrepo, P., Destouni, G., Prieto, C., Rodriguez, J. J., Rodriguez-Mirasol, J., Cordero, T., Ioannou, C., Georgiou, A., Schwartz, J. & Zacharias, I. (2010) Cost-efficient management of coastal aquifers via recharge with treated wastewater and desalination of brackish groundwater: application to the Akrotiri basin and aquifer, Cyprus. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1234–1245.     

An experimental investigation of convection in a rotating sphere subject to time varying thermal boundary conditions

Abstract

A series of experiments has been undertaken to investigate the onset of convection in a rapidly rotating fluid filled sphere. The boundary is subjected to a time varying temperature allowing the simulation of radial temperature profiles associated with internal heating. The system is similar to that treated theoretically by Roberts (1968), Busse (1970) and Soward (1977). It is found that Busse's modification of Roberts' linear analysis, taking into account velocity perturbations which are antisymmetric about the equatorial plane, provides a good estimate of the temperature gradient required to initiate convection. As observed in the experiments of Carrigan and Busse (1983) and predicted by linear theory, convection appears in the form of rolls or columns, aligned parallel to the rotation axis. As in earlier experiments, observed azimuthal wavenumbers are consistently smaller than predicted which we postulate to be a consequence of nonlinear effects. Owing to the presence of a centrifugally driven thermal wind, the predicted azimuthal drift of the rolls has not been observed.     

Significance of stemflow in groundwater recharge. 1: Evaluation of the stemflow contribution to recharge using a mass balance approach

Stemflow was evaluated in a water balance and its contribution to groundwater recharge determined. Gross precipitation, throughfall and stemflow were measured for one year in a pine forest (Tsukuba, Japan) to determine each component of the water balance in the forest. Groundwater recharge rates by stemflow and throughfall were calculated from a mass balance method using chloride in subsurface waters. The stemflow in the water balance was relatively small when estimated as a value per canopy projected area of the tree in the forest. However, the results for the mass balance of chloride in subsurface waters indicated that it was impossible to disregard the stemflow in determining groundwater recharge. Although the ratio of stemflow to the net precipitation was small in the water balance, the effect of stemflow on groundwater recharge was relatively large.     

Frost quakes as a particular class of seismic events: Observations within the East-European platform

The group of quakes, which are caused by fast freezing of water-saturated soils or rocks at abrupt drop of winter temperatures often occurring in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, is considered. The review of little-known literature is given; the statistical data on the distribution of earthquakes in seasons and the time of day in various regions of Eurasia are presented. Special attention is paid to the East European Platform; using the data for this platform, with thorough consideration of reference quakes along with the weather conditions, the signs of a specific class of nontectonic seismic events are determined. The question concerning the necessity of the frost quakes’ discrimination in compilation of tectonic earthquake catalogues in certain regions is stated.