On ensemble prediction of ocean waves

The numerical ensemble prediction is a well accepted method for improving the performance of atmospheric models. In the context of ocean wave modeling little has been researched or documented about this technique. An essential study of the method of ensemble prediction applied to deep water waves has been carried out. A framework is defined for obtaining perturbations of the directional wave spectra and for employing an ensemble of wind fields generated by an atmospheric model. The third-generation global wave model WAM is used with real atmospheric conditions to investigate the effect on wave predictions of perturbed initial conditions and atmospheric forcing. Due to spectral shape stabilisation, perturbing wave initial conditions has limited utility in ensemble prediction. However, the members could be used in wave data assimilation schemes in an interactive way. Using ensembles of the atmospheric condition can generate diverging solutions, justifying the ensemble procedure by itself. In the cases studied, it is observed that the ensemble mean outperformed the other members. The solution behaviour suggests using a lower-order approximation of the model to generate ensemble members with less computational cost.     

On the calculation of total heat, salt and tracer fluxes from ocean hydrothermal events

Total heat, salt, and other tracer masses released during a hydrothermal event are shown to be proportional to, but not necessarily equal to, volume integrals of resulting water column anomalies. Proportionality coefficients depend on anomaly definition, on background hydrographic and tracer profiles, on expansion coefficients of the equation of state at an appropriate pressure, and on tracer to heat anomaly ratios at the venting source. For Gorda Ridge event plumes, which are described in other papers of this issue, volume integrals of conventionally defined heat anomalies underestimate actual released heat by a factor of 2.4 if the discharge is not anomalously saline. Under certain combinations of hydrographic and source anomaly conditions, not unlike those found on the East Pacific Rise at 10°N, the apparent total heat released during an event can be deceivingly zero. This analysis also establishes a linear relationship between the ratio of tracer anomaly to heat anomaly at any point in the plume to the same ratio at the source. One consequence is that the ratio of anomalous ³He to heat in Gorda Ridge event plumes is approximately 2.4 larger in the water column than it is at the source. Results are independent of the entrainment process involved in event plume formation, and they are shown to hold true even for background hydrographic profiles that do not vary linearly with depth.     

Synchronization between fractional-order chaotic systems and integer orders chaotic systems (fractional-order chaotic systems)

Based on the idea of tracking control and stability theory of fractional-order systems, a controller is designed to synchronize the fractional-order chaotic system with chaotic systems of integer orders, and synchronize the different fractional-order chaotic systems. The proposed synchronization approach in this paper shows that the synchronization between fractional-order chaotic systems and chaotic systems of integer orders can be achieved, and the synchronization between different fractional-order chaotic systems can also be realized. Numerical experiments show that the present method works very well.     

海洋资料同化对气候季节-年际预测技巧及初始场的影响试验

集合卡尔曼滤波(Ensemble Kalman filter, EnKF)是一种国内外广泛使用的海洋资料同化方案, 用集合成员的状态集合表征模式的背景误差协方差, 结合观测误差协方差, 计算卡尔曼增益矩阵, 有效地将观测信息添加到模式初始场中。由于季节、年际预测很大程度上受到初始场的影响, 因此资料同化可以提高模式的预测性能。本文在NUIST-CFS1.0预测系统逐日SST nudging的初始化方案上, 利用EnKF在每个月末将全场(full field)海表温度(sea surface temperature, SST)、温盐廓线(in-situ temperature and salinity profiles, T-S profiles)以及卫星观测海平面高度异常(sea level anomalies, SLA)观测资料同化到模式初始场中, 对比分析了无海洋资料同化以及加入同化后初始场的区别、加入海洋资料同化后模式提前1~24个月预测性能的差异以及对于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-southern oscillation, ENSO)预测技巧的影响。结果表明, 加入海洋资料同化能有效地改进初始场, 并且呈现随深度增加初始场改进越显著的特征。加入同化后, 对全球SST、次表层海水温度的平均预测技巧均有一定的提高, 也表现出随深度增加预测技巧改进越明显的特征。但加入海洋资料同化后, 模式对ENSO的预测技巧有所下降, 可能是由于模式误差的存在, 使得同化后的预测初始场从接近观测的状态又逐渐恢复到与模式动力相匹配的状态, 加剧了赤道太平洋冷舌偏西、中东部偏暖的气候平均态漂移。     

On the variability of vertical eddy heat flux in the upper ocean

Ocean eddies produce strong vertical heat flux (VHF) in the upper ocean, exerting profound influences on the climate and ecosystem. Currently, mooring array provides a standard way to estimate the eddy-induced VHF (EVHF) based on the adiabatic potential density equation. Apart from the validity of adiabatic assumption, it remains unclear to what extent the estimated EVHF at a single location within a limited time period is representative of its climatological mean value. In this study, we analyzed the above issue by systematically evaluating the variability of EVHF simulated by a 1-km ocean model configured over the Kuroshio Extension. It is found that the EVHF at a single location exhibits pronounced variability. Even averaged over one year that is comparable to the current maintenance capacity of mooring array, the EVHF still deviates significantly from its climatological mean value. For more than 49% of locations in our computational domain (31°–40°N, 149°–166°E), the discrepancy between the one-year mean EVHF and its climatological mean value at the peaking depth is larger than the climatological mean itself. The mesoscale eddies play a dominant role in the variability of EVHF but contribute little to the climatological mean EVHF; the opposite is true for submesoscale eddies. Our findings indicate that nested mooring array allowing for isolating the effects of submesoscale eddies will be useful to obtain climatological mean EVHF.     

Interaction between two polar cold source and tropical ocean heat source effecting global climate change

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On the problem of heat balance in integral models of the upper ocean

The heat balance equations for the mixed layer, the jump layer modelled by the temperature discontinuity surface, the heat flux, current velocity, and the thermocline, where the temperature is parameterized vertically, are derived in the spatial unsteady hydrodynamic integral model of the upper ocean.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Notes on global climate and ocean currents

The problems related to the role of both natural and anthropogenic factors in global climate change are considered. The role of ocean circulation in the Earth’s global thermodynamic processes is qualitatively analyzed. The balances of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and in the ocean and the effect of anthropogenic factors are analyzed. The requirements for new-generation models of the Earth’s climate are formulated.     

Sensitivity analysis of the climate of a chaotic system

This paper addresses some fundamental methodological issues concerning the sensitivity analysis of chaotic geophysical systems. We show, using the Lorenz system as an example, that a naïve approach to variational ("adjoint") sensitivity analysis is of limited utility. Applied to trajectories which are long relative to the predictability time scales of the system, cumulative error growth means that adjoint results diverge exponentially from the "macroscopic climate sensitivity"(that is, the sensitivity of time‐averaged properties of the system to finite‐amplitude perturbations). This problem occurs even for time‐averaged quantities and given infinite computing resources. Alternatively, applied to very short trajectories, the adjoint provides an incorrect estimate of the sensitivity, even if averaged over large numbers of initial conditions, because a finite time scale is required for the model climate to respond fully to certain perturbations. In the Lorenz (1963) system, an intermediate time scale is found on which an ensemble of adjoint gradients can give a reasonably accurate (O(10%)) estimate of the macroscopic climate sensitivity. While this ensemble‐adjoint approach is unlikely to be reliable for more complex systems, it may provide useful guidance in identifying important parameter‐combinations to be explored further through direct finite‐amplitude perturbations.     

On the large-scale variability of the circulation and heat state of the ocean and atmosphere in the North Atlantic

A conclusion about two extreme regimes existing in the large-scale circulation in the North Atlantic has been drawn based on an analysis of the inter-annual variability of the analogue to the Rossby index, as well as that of the heat and dynamic characteristics in separate areas of the north subtropical circulation. The former is defined by a high level of circulation both in the atmosphere and in the subtropical water circulation. In the current century this regime was realized mainly in the years pertaining to the middle and end of a 22-year solar activity cycle (a 22-year cycle). The relatively low level of atmospheric circulation and the slackened water mass transport are typical of the second regime. It dominated mainly during the years relevant to the beginning and second half of a 22-year solar activity cycle.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

The effects of chaotic advection in a three-layer ocean model

A three-layer model of an inviscid incompressible fluid is considered in a quasigeostrophic approximation within the concept of background currents. A singular topographic obstacle yields the formation of a vortical motion in the layers. It is always present in the lower layer, while in the upper and middle layers it can be observed only at certain velocities of the external flows. Three current functions describing a singular topographic flow in the lower layer and two regular flows in the upper layer are obtained. In case of a nonstationary harmonic perturbation of the external flow, chaotic particle transport is possible in these flows. This paper analyzes the chaotic properties of this model. Depending on the type of unperturbed frequency curves of the fluid particle revolution is determined by the model parameters (stratification) and the incident flow, the patterns of the chaotic transport will substantially differ. Two of the limiting dependences of the revolution frequency are determined, namely, the dependence for a singular vortex and that for a regular vortex with the smallest area. Other dependences are intermediate ones. Two limiting types of revolution frequencies determine the two different scenarios of chaotic advection.     

Projections of ocean climate for northwestern Pacific Ocean

The long-term adjustment processes of atmosphere and ocean in response to gradually increased atmospheric CO2 concentration have been analyzed in 70 and 140a integrations with NCAR fully-coupled climate system model (CSM). In these experiments the CO2 concentration has been increased to double and quadruples the initial concentration, respectively. After 70a, at the time of CO2 doubling, the model predicts surface air temperature rises by 1.2 and 1.5K for the globe and the northwestern Pacific Ocean, respectively. The behavior of the quadrupling run is similar: each global and regional mean surface air temperatures increase by 2.8 and 3.0K at the time of CO2 quadrupling. From the experiments, surface air temperature changes in the northwestern Pacific Ocean will be more distinctive compared with the global average, mainly due to exceptionally large warming and sea level change near the entrance of the Kuroshio extension.     

气候变化中海洋和冰冻圈的变化、影响及风险

本文系统梳理了IPCC 《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》(SROCC)的主要结论,并对主要观点进行了解读。报告主要关注全球变暖背景下高山、极地、海洋和沿海地区现在和未来的变化及其对人类和生态系统的影响,以及实现气候适应发展路径的方案。在全球变暖背景下,冰冻圈大面积萎缩,冰川冰盖质量损失,积雪减少,北极海冰范围和厚度减小,多年冻土升温,全球海洋持续增温,1993年以来,海洋变暖和吸热速度增加了一倍以上。同时,海洋表面酸化加剧,海洋含氧量减少。全球平均海平面呈加速上升趋势,2006—2015年全球海平面上升速率为3.6 mm/yr,是1901—1990年的2.5倍,但存在区域差异。高山、极地和海洋的生态系统的物种组成、分布和服务功能均发生变化,并对人类社会产生了显著负面影响。极端海洋气候事件发生频率增多,强度加大。1982年以来,全球范围内海洋热浪的发生频率增加了一倍,且范围更广,持续时间更长。海平面持续上升加剧了洪涝、海水入侵、海岸侵蚀等海岸带灾害,并影响沿海生态系统。海洋及冰冻圈的变化及其影响在未来一定时期仍将持续,应对这些影响而面临的挑战,应加强基于生态系统的适应和可再生能源管理,强化海岸带地区的海平面上升综合应对,打造积极有效、可持续和具有韧性的气候变化应对方案。     

海洋观测方法之研究

本文讨论了海洋观测技术的定义,厘清了其与海洋探测技术和海洋监测技术的关系,并在认识海洋观测数据本质的基础上,从技术性、实时性、经济性和适用性等4个方面,来讨论海洋观测方法。本文研究表明,抓着观测数据的本质保障观测数据的质量;观测手段特别是平台技术决定观测技术的实时性;实时性反映海洋观测任务的需要及观测技术的水平;经济性决定观测技术的选用;适用性进一步决定海洋观测技术的最佳形式,甚至衍生出新的观测技术。