大兴安岭北部满归泥炭孢粉重建的过去2100年古气候

大兴安岭地处季风气候的尾闾区,是一个研究全球变化的关键区域。但由于该地区古气候代用指标（树轮、孢粉、石笋等）获取比较困难,历史文献也缺乏,使得古气候研究受到了限制。本研究通过大兴安岭北部的漠河县满归镇附近一个厚88 cm的泥炭剖面的孢粉记录,根据831个表土样品的花粉数据和附近90个气象台站30年的地面观测数据,运用现代类比法（Modern Analogue Technique,简称MAT）重建了该地区过去2100年的年均温（T_ann）、年降水量（P_ann）、1月均温（T_jan）和7月均温（T_july）,结果表明T_ann和T_jan的波动达到2.4℃,T_july的波动为1.7℃,P_ann波动为28.2 mm。该地区的气候变化分为3个阶段：阶段Ⅰ（150 BC~850 A.D.）温度和降水量相对较低,年均温比现代30年均值低约0.5℃;阶段Ⅱ（850~1300 A.D.）以温度升高-降低的波动为特征,升温在1070~1170 A.D.期间最明显,年均温比现代30年平均值高0.2℃,这一时期相当于欧洲中世纪气候异常期（the Medieval Climate Anomaly,简称MCA）;阶段Ⅲ（1300~2000 A.D.）早期（1300~1900 A.D.）以气温较低为特征,这一时期相当于小冰期（the Little Ice Age,简称LIA）,年均温比现代30年平均值低0.8℃,晚期（1900~2000 A.D.）呈现升温的趋势。

     

Hunter‐gatherer response to late Holocene climatic variability in northern and central Australia

Sum probability analysis of 1275 radiometric ages from 608 archaeological sites across northern and central Australia demonstrates a changing archaeological signature that can be closely correlated with climate variability over the last 2 ka. Results reveal a marked increase in archaeological records across northern and central Australia over the last 2 ka, with notable declines in western and northern Australia between ca. AD 700 and 1000 and post‐AD 1500 – two periods broadly coeval with the Medieval Climatic Anomaly and the Little Ice Age as they have been documented in the Asia–Pacific region. Latitudinal and longitudinal analysis of the dataset suggests the increase in archaeological footprint was continent wide, while the declines were greatest from 9 to 20° S, 110 to 135° E and 143 to 150° E. The change in the archaeological data suggests that, combined with an increase in population over the late Holocene, a disruption or reorganisation of pre‐European resource systems occurred across Australia between ca. AD 700 and 1000 and post‐AD 1500. These archaeological responses can be broadly correlated with transitions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mean state on a multi‐decadal to centennial timescale. The latter involve a shift towards the La Niña‐like mean state with wetter conditions in the Australian region between AD 700 and 1150. A transition period in ENSO mean state occurred across Australia during AD 1150–1300, with persistent El Niño‐like and drier conditions to ca. AD 1500, and increasing ENSO variability post‐AD 1500 to the present. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ice-core pollen record of climatic changes in the central Andes during the last 400 yr

This paper presents a high-resolution ice-core pollen record from the Sajama Ice Cap, Bolivia, that spans the last 400 yr. The pollen record corroborates the oxygen isotopic and ice accumulation records from the Quelccaya Ice Cap and supports the scenario that the Little Ice Age (LIA) consisted of two distinct phases—a wet period from AD 1500 to 1700, and a dry period from AD 1700 to 1880. During the dry period xerophytic shrubs expanded to replace puna grasses on the Altiplano, as suggested by a dramatic drop in the Poaceae/Asteraceae (P/A) pollen ratio. The environment around Sajama was probably similar to the desert-like shrublands of the Southern Bolivian Highlands and western Andean slopes today. The striking similarity between the Sajama and Quelccaya proxy records suggests that climatic changes during the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the Altiplano.     

中世纪气候异常期和小冰期中国华北与北美西南部年代际干湿变化的关系

百年尺度冷、暖背景下不同区域年代际干湿变化的关系是历史气候变化领域的重大问题之一。本研究利用基于历史文献重建的中国华北干湿指数(Dry-wet index)和基于树轮年表重建的北美西南部帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI), 采用100年窗口的滑动相关分析, 计算了两地年代际干湿变化的相关关系, 对比了中世纪气候异常期(MCA)和小冰期(LIA)两地相关关系的差异, 并利用PMIP3和PMIP4共11个模式的过去千年气候变化模拟数据, 诊断了其成因。研究发现: 1)代用资料展示出MCA期间中国华北与北美西南部年代际干湿变化为正相关(r=0.32, p < 0.05), LIA期间则为负相关(r=-0.27, p < 0.05); 2)GISS-E2-R模式基本再现了代用资料揭示的工业革命前两地干湿变化相关关系的变化特征, 尤其是MCA和LIA的差异; 3)MCA期间, 中国华北与北美西南部年代际干湿变化正相关主要是因两地水汽条件同时匮乏所致, 这可能是源于负位相太平洋-北美(PNA)遥相关的影响; LIA期间, 中国华北与北美西南部年代际干湿变化负相关主要是因中国华北水汽匮乏, 而北美西南部水汽充沛所致, 这可能是源于负位相北太平洋涛动(NPO)遥相关的影响。上述结果为深入辨识百年尺度冷、暖背景下中国华北与北美西南部年代际干湿变化之间的关系提供了新证据, 为预估未来全球升温情景下中国或北美年代际干湿特征提供预警信号。

     

A 2000-yr reconstruction of air temperature in the Great Basin of the United States with specific reference to the Medieval Climatic Anomaly

A sediment core representing the past two millennia was recovered from Stella Lake in the Snake Range of the central Great Basin in Nevada. The core was analyzed for sub-fossil chironomids and sediment organic content. A quantitative reconstruction of mean July air temperature (MJAT) was developed using a regional training set and a chironomid-based WA-PLS inference model (r²_jack = 0.55, RMSEP = 0.9°C). The chironomid-based MJAT reconstruction suggests that the interval between AD 900 and AD 1300, corresponding to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), was characterized by MJAT elevated 1.0°C above the subsequent Little Ice Age (LIA), but likely not as warm as recent conditions. Comparison of the Stella Lake temperature reconstruction to previously published paleoclimate records from this region indicates that the temperature fluctuations inferred to have occurred at Stella Lake between AD 900 and AD 1300 correspond to regional records documenting hydroclimate variability during the MCA interval. The Stella Lake record provides evidence that elevated summer temperature contributed to the increased aridity that characterized the western United States during the MCA.     

《云山日记》记录的太湖流域1308~1309年寒冬

古代私人笔记和日记是用于气候变化研究的重要历史资料。根据元人郭畀《云山日记》记载的1308~1309年的逐日天气记录、物候记录,发现该年冬季太湖流域地区异常偏冷,至少可以识别出4次明显的寒潮过程。1309年1月江南运河丹阳段封冻3日,镇江地区的最低气温可能达-13℃以下;1309年2月常州-镇江地区连续降雪8天,积雪10天,积雪深度可掩埋道路。此外,日记中记载的柑橘分布范围与13世纪中叶相比已明显南移。据此,可以认为至少在14世纪初气候已经开始向寒冷方向转变,体现了由中世纪暖期向明清小冰期的过渡过程。

     

福建梅花山泥炭腐殖化度记录的过去千年气候变化

全球变暖背景下频发的极端气候事件, 严重影响了经济社会可持续发展。研究过去人类活动背景下的气候变化特征可为预测气候变化趋势、制定应对策略提供历史借鉴。本研究选取福建梅花山国家级自然保护区山间泥炭岩芯(长度238cm)119个沉积物进行腐殖化度分析, 结合粒度和烧失量记录, 重建近千年来福建地区高分辨率气候历史。研究结果显示, 在东亚季风区的低纬亚高山山间盆地, 泥炭沉积物腐殖化度越高, 指示气候越冷干; 腐殖化度越低, 指示气候越暖湿。梅花山泥炭腐殖化度在980~1529A.D.呈现低值(均值8.4%), 指示中世纪暖期较强的东亚季风和暖湿气候; 1529~1926A.D.呈显著高值(均值24.8%), 指示明清小冰期较弱的季风和冷干气候; 1926A.D.以来波动下降(均值22.8%), 对应了现代暖期。梅花山泥炭腐殖化度记录与区域沉积记录显示出对东亚季风的同步响应。研究结果记录了小冰期的第二次和第三次冷期, 分别为1589~1757A.D.和1842~1926A.D.。梅花山泥炭腐殖化度记录的近千年气候变化可能受太阳辐射、热带辐合带和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动等的共同驱动。

     

Century-scale variability in late-summer rainfall events recorded over seven centuries in subannually laminated lacustrine sediments, White Pass, British Columbia

Formation of annually laminated sediments in Summit Lake, White Pass, British Columbia is controlled by runoff generated by snowpack and glacier melt and major rainfall events. The 700-yr varve record is divided into two subannual series (early and late) based on sedimentological criteria and sedimentary structures within each varve. A comparison of recent subannual laminae with nearby meteorological records supports the interpretation they are formed by river discharge events generated by major snow and glacier melt events and large late-summer rainfall events. A significant correlation exists between the late subannual thickness series and the size of the largest rainfall events in late summer. The long record indicates there was an abrupt increase in the thickness and frequency of major rainfall-induced sedimentary events at the end of the seventeenth century. In addition, the frequency of laminae generated by early runoff events also increased. However, early subannual varve thickness component remains statistically the same as the thickness prior to the end of the seventeenth century. This suggests the change in varve thickness at this time is due to increases in major late-summer rainfall frequency rather than increased sediment availability caused by regional Little Ice Age glacier advances.     

唐古拉山东段布加岗日地区小冰期以来的冰川变化研究

对唐古拉山东段布加岗日地区小冰期以来的冰川变化资料进行了分析,结果表明,该地区小冰期最盛时(即15世纪)冰川总面积和总储量分别为241.46km²和19.6282km³,目前其面积和储量分别已减少了23.7%和15.1%,并且自小冰期以来有184条长度大约为0.6km的小冰川已消失.该地区各冰川面积和储量的绝对变化量随着冰川规模的增大而增大,而其相对变化百分数却是随着冰川规模的增大而减小.不同方位冰川小冰期以来的平均面积萎缩量、平均末端退缩量和平均末端高程上升量均表明,南坡冰川变化的绝对量比北坡的大.这说明在同一气候变化背景下,该地区南坡冰川对于气候变化的响应比北坡冰川敏感.小冰期以来该地区冰川雪线上升了约90m,这大致相当于气温上升约0.6℃.     

过去2000年温度集成重建研究:进展与展望

过去2000年气候变化研究是全球气候变化研究的核心内容,不仅可以提供20世纪气候增暖的自然背景,也是最终揭示20世纪气候变暖机理并预估未来气候变化趋势的关键途径,是国际大型计划（如PAGES,过去全球变化研究计划）的优先研究时段。近20多年来,特别是近几年,随着代用资料的不断积累和气候重建方法的改进和发展,过去2000年大尺度气候重建研究取得了长足发展,在区域和北半球气候集成重建方法,年际、年代、百年乃至千年时间尺度上的气候时空变化特征和机制,及最近几十年气候增暖的历史地位等方面的研究均取得了重要科学认识,形成了现代气候增暖机理和未来气候趋势预估的科学基础。本文主要从方法学、研究历史回顾和现阶段形成的科学认识等3个方面论述过去2000年气候变化研究取得的成就,并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。

     

Late Holocene climatic changes in Tierra del Fuego based on multiproxy analyses of peat deposits

A ca. 1400-yr record from a raised bog in Isla Grande, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, registers climate fluctuations, including a Medieval Warm Period, although evidence for the ‘Little Ice Age’ is less clear. Changes in temperature and/or precipitation were inferred from plant macrofossils, pollen, fungal spores, testate amebae, and peat humification. The chronology was established using a ¹⁴C wiggle-matching technique that provides improved age control for at least part of the record compared to other sites. These new data are presented and compared with other lines of evidence from the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. A period of low local water tables occurred in the bog between A.D. 960-1020, which may correspond to the Medieval Warm Period date range of A.D. 950-1045 generated from Northern Hemisphere tree-ring data. A period of cooler and/or wetter conditions was detected between ca. A.D. 1030 and 1100 and a later period of cooler/wetter conditions estimated at ca. cal A.D. 1800-1930, which may correspond to a cooling episode inferred from Law Dome, Antarctica.     

华北平原小冰期以来干湿变化与人类活动特征

气候变化尤其干湿变化对人类活动具有重要影响,高分辨率地重建过去的干湿变化是研究区域干湿变化的基础,同时也为未来气候变化提供依据。目前针对华北地区小冰期高分辨率的气候变化研究还较少,特别是干湿变化研究更少。本研究在3个AMS-¹⁴C测年的基础上,通过99个样品的孢粉、炭屑、粒度等指标高分辨率地重建了该地区小冰期以来的气候干湿变化特征及与人类活动强度的关系。结果表明：小冰期之前（约1340 A.D.）乔木花粉含量多在25%以上,指示流域植被以森林草地景观为主,沉积物颗粒较粗,沉积环境不稳定,气候较为湿润。小冰期期间（1340~1920 A.D.）乔木花粉多降低至15%以下,喜干的藜科、荨麻属和葎草属花粉含量明显增加,指示气候整体变干,但不同阶段变干程度又存在明显差异：小冰期早期（1340~1580 A.D.）孢粉组合中喜干的藜科花粉含量逐渐增加,湿生植物花粉含量减少,PCA axis 1得分值多在0~1之间,显示气候偏干。该时期与人类活动有关的炭屑浓度、农作物（禾本科≥35 μm）花粉和磷（P）含量均最低,说明小冰期早期研究区人类活动强度相对较弱;小冰期中期（1580~1800 A.D.）喜干的藜科、荨麻属和葎草属花粉含量达到最高值,PCA axis 1得分值较小冰期早期更正偏,指示气候更为干旱。炭屑浓度、伴人植物、磷（P）含量和农作物（禾本科≥35 μm）花粉均达最高值,指示人类活动强度明显增强;小冰期晚期（1800~1920 A.D.）湿生的禾本科和水生植物狐尾藻属等花粉含量达到最高值,PCA axis 1得分值负偏,指示气候变湿润。该阶段农作物（禾本科≥35 μm）花粉、炭屑浓度和磷（P）含量较上一时期均略有降低,表明人类活动强度较小冰期中期略有降低。小冰期以后（1920年至今）喜湿的禾本科和水生植物狐尾藻属花粉含量减少,与小冰期晚期相比,气候向着干旱化方向发展

     

Late Holocene environmental conditions in Coronation Gulf,southwestern Canadian Arctic Archipelago: evidence from dinoflagellate cysts,other non‐pollen palynomorphs,and pollen

Boxcore 99LSSL‐001 (68.095° N, 114.186° W; 211 m water depth) from Coronation Gulf represents the first decadal‐scale marine palynology and late Holocene sediment record for the southwestern part of the Northwest Passage. The record was studied for organic‐walled microfossils (dinoflagellate cysts, non‐pollen palynomorphs), pollen, terrestrial spores, and sediment characteristics. ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs, and three accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dates constrain the chronology. Three prominent palaeoenvironmental zones were identified. During the interval AD 1470–1680 (Zone I), the climate was warmer and wetter than at present, and environmental conditions were more favourable to biological activity and northward boreal forest migration, with reduced sea‐ice and a longer open‐water (growing) season. The interval AD 1680–1940 (Zone II) records sea‐ice increase, and generally cool, polar conditions during the Little Ice Age. During AD 1940–2000 (Zone III), organic microfossils indicate an extended open‐water season and decreased sea‐ice, with suggested amelioration surpassing that of Zone I. Although more marine studies are needed to place this record into an appropriate context, the succession from ameliorated (Zone I) to cooler, sea‐ice influenced conditions (Zone II) and finally to 20th‐century warming (Zone III) corresponds well with several terrestrial climatic records from the neighbouring mainland and Victoria Island, and with lower‐resolution marine records to the west. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Little ice age’ variations of outlet glaciers from the jostedalsbreen ice-cap,Southern Norway: A regional lichenometric-dating study of ice-marginal moraine sequences and their climatic significance

Complex moraine-ridge sequences in front of seven outlet glaciers of the Jostedalsbreen ice-cap (Austerdalsbreen, Bergsetbreen, Fåbergstølsbreen, Lodalsbreen, Stegaholbreen, Tuftebreen, Bødalsbreen) are dated using families of lichenometric dating curves established previously at an eighth outlet (Nigardsbreen). Applicability of the Nigardsbreen curves at the regional level is tested using independent historical evidence: moraines deposited during the present century are dated to an accuracy of ± 9.4 yr (16.0%), and most of them are dated to an accuracy of ± 5.5 yr (9.4%). Results from the moraine sequences are combined to form a composite ‘Jostedalsbreen’ record. Median predicted dates for moraine ridges cluster around AD 1939 ± 2 yr, 1929 ± 3, 1908 ± 3, 1886 ± 5, 1875 ± 2, 1867 ± 4, 1855 ± 3, 1842 ± 5, 1822 ± 5, 1807 ± 4 and 1785 ± 5. At least four glaciers reached their ‘Little ice age’ maxima prior to AD 1780, two (Nigardsbreen and Bødalsbreen) at ca. 1750, one (Fåbergstølsbreen) at ca. 1705. Stegaholbreen attained its maximum ca. 1863. Since the ‘Little ice age’ maximum, and despite large differences in glacier size, frontal variations of the various outlets have exhibited a high degree of synchroneity, which suggests that the moraine sequences contain a sensitive record of high-frequency climatic variations over the last ca. 250 yr. During the early twentieth century, measured readvances of the order of 5–150 m over 1–10 yr led to moraine formation. Dendroclimatic evidence indicates that since the late eighteenth century, moraine ridges formed about 5 yr after summer temperature minima and correlate with runs of cool summers (temperature depression of 0.5–1.0°C below the AD 1700–1950 average). Almost simultaneous glacier advances appear to have been caused by reduced ablation. This near-immediate response to climatic variation, by glacier tongues that descend to relative low altitudes, is superimposed upon the longer-term dynamic response of the ice cap to climate.     

Holocene climatic fluctuations and positioning of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies in Tierra del Fuego (54° S), Patagonia

Recent advances in the chronology and the palaeoclimatic understanding of Antarctic ice core records point towards a larger heterogeneity of latitudinal climate fluctuations than previously thought. Thus, realistic palaeoclimate reconstructions rely in the development of a tight array of well‐constrained records with a dense latitudinal coverage. Climatic records from southernmost South America are critical cornerstones to link these Antarctic palaeoclimatic archives with their South American counterparts. At 54° S on the Island of Tierra del Fuego, Lago Fagnano is located in one of the most substantially and extensively glaciated regions of southernmost South America during the Late Pleistocene. This elongated lake is the largest (～110 km long) and non‐ice covered lake at high southern latitudes. A multi‐proxy study of selected cores allows the characterisation of a Holocene sedimentary record. Detailed petrophysical, sedimentological and geochemical studies of a complete lacustrine laminated sequence reveal variations in major and trace elements, as well as organic content, suggesting high variability in environmental conditions. Comparison of these results with other regional records allows the identification of major known late Holocene climatic intervals and the proposal for a time for the onset of the Southern Westerlies in Tierra del Fuego. These results improve our understanding of the forcing mechanisms behind climate change in southernmost Patagonia. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

古气候演化特征、驱动与反馈及对现代气候变化研究的启示意义

古气候与现代气候变化研究如何有效结合,特别是古气候研究如何为理解现代气候变化过程提供背景条件、边界约束和理论框架,值得深入探讨。文章以现代、历史时期、全新世、晚第四纪和新生代为时间基线,回顾阐述了过去气候演变特征、成因机制及其对现代气候变化研究的启示意义,探讨了过去与现代气候变化融合研究中存在的不确定性。过去气候演化过程的研究,加深了人们对地球气候系统运行机制的理解。研究表明,各个时期中,地球气候经历了不同相位、幅度和速率的变化,气候系统各分量之间发生了复杂的相互作用,以地表温度为代表的地球表面热力环境演化是各不同阶段气候变化的基本表现形式。全球温度变化不仅受到太阳输出辐射、地球轨道参数和地球构造运动等的影响,而且与地球表层水圈中的海洋、冰冻圈中的大陆冰盖、生物圈中的海洋浮游生物和陆地植被,以及大气圈中的温室气体、粉尘气溶胶、水汽和云等活跃组分之间,存在着多尺度复杂反馈作用。在同一时间尺度上,气候系统分量的互馈通路可能是同向的、可比的,各分量之间的对应关系或具有一致性,研究结论对于预估未来气候变化有借鉴意义;但在不同时间尺度上,气候系统各分量之间的相互联系机制可能难有一致性和可比性,古今互鉴,就需要慎重。

     

Mid‐ and late‐Holocene climatic changes: a test of periodicity and solar forcing in proxy‐climate data from blanket peat bogs

A wide range of palaeoenvironmental evidence from the Holocene has suggested periodicities in the Earth's climate of 10s to 1000s of years. Identifying these millennial‐, century‐ and decadal periodicities, and their impacts, is critical in developing a fuller understanding of natural climate variability. Any solar‐induced climatic change needs to be distinguished from other causes of natural climate variability and from short‐term catastrophic events induced either by external or internal processes. Such events might themselves generate a periodicity, or in combination with other forcing factors they may contribute towards a periodicity (and so spuriously imply a universal and continuing periodicity in the climate record), or they may resonate with a solar‐induced periodicity. Here, evidence from peat records for periodicity in climate change over the mid to late Holocene is reviewed and this is followed by a test of the replicability of claimed periodicities using blanket peat data covering the past 2000 yr from four sites in the British Isles. Results suggest that the mires studied do go through phases of being responsive to periodic forcing factors, with ca. 200, ca. 80 and 60–50 yr wavelengths reflected in some data sets. However, the patterns shown are not consistent. This could be the result of local conditions at individual mires (human impact, sensitivity and vegetation succession) or of changes in the strength or nature of global forcing factors. Assessing a solar–mire link remains difficult because the century‐scale variations of the Sun show different intervals between solar minima, the durations of which are themselves unequal, and because the proxy‐climate data‐sets from peat profiles may themselves not be dated with sufficient precision and/or accuracy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.