An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai

Managing risks from extreme events will be a crucial component of climate change adaptation. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to assess future risks and quantify the benefits of adaptation options at a city-scale, with application to flood risk in Mumbai. In 2005, Mumbai experienced unprecedented flooding, causing direct economic damages estimated at almost two billion USD and 500 fatalities. Our findings suggest that by the 2080s, in a SRES A2 scenario, an ??upper bound?? climate scenario could see the likelihood of a 2005-like event more than double. We estimate that total losses (direct plus indirect) associated with a 1-in-100 year event could triple compared with current situation (to $690?C$1,890 million USD), due to climate change alone. Continued rapid urbanisation could further increase the risk level. The analysis also demonstrates that adaptation could significantly reduce future losses; for example, estimates suggest that by improving the drainage system in Mumbai, losses associated with a 1-in-100 year flood event today could be reduced by as much as 70%.,We show that assessing the indirect costs of extreme events is an important component of an adaptation assessment, both in ensuring the analysis captures the full economic benefits of adaptation and also identifying options that can help to manage indirect risks of disasters. For example, we show that by extending insurance to 100% penetration, the indirect effects of flooding could be almost halved. We conclude that, while this study explores only the upper-bound climate scenario, the risk-assessment core demonstrated in this study could form an important quantitative tool in developing city-scale adaptation strategies. We provide a discussion of sources of uncertainty and risk-based tools could be linked with decision-making approaches to inform adaptation plans that are robust to climate change.     

Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs

Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future.     

Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: Scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments

Current projections of long-term trends in Atlantic hurricane activity due to climate change are deeply uncertain, both in magnitude and sign. This creates challenges for adaptation planning in exposed coastal communities. We present a framework to support the interpretation of current long-term tropical cyclone projections, which accommodates the nature of the uncertainty and aims to facilitate robust decision making using the information that is available today. The framework is populated with projections taken from the recent literature to develop a set of scenarios of long-term hurricane hazard. Hazard scenarios are then used to generate risk scenarios for Florida using a coupled climate–catastrophe modeling approach. The scenarios represent a broad range of plausible futures; from wind-related hurricane losses in Florida halving by the end of the century to more than a four-fold increase due to climate change alone. We suggest that it is not possible, based on current evidence, to meaningfully quantify the relative confidence of each scenario. The analyses also suggest that natural variability is likely to be the dominant driver of the level and volatility of wind-related risk over the coming decade; however, under the highest scenario, the superposition of this natural variability and anthropogenic climate change could mean notably increased levels of risk within the decade. Finally, we present a series of analyses to better understand the relative adequacy of the different models that underpin the scenarios and draw conclusions for the design of future climate science and modeling experiments to be most informative for adaptation.     

Climate change adaptation advantage for African road infrastructure

The African continent is facing the potential of a $183.6 billion USD liability to repair and maintain roads damaged from temperature and precipitation changes directly related to predicted climate change through 2100. This cost is strictly to retain the current road inventory. This cost does not include costs associated with impacts to critically needed new roads. In many African countries, limited or non-existent funds for adaptation and mitigation are challenging these countries to identify the threats that are posed by climate change, develop adaptation approaches to the predicted changes, incorporate changes into mid-range and long-term development plans, and secure funding for the proposed and necessary adaptations. Existing studies have attempted to quantify the impact of climate change on infrastructure assets that will be affected by climate change in the coming decades. The current study extends these efforts by specifically addressing the effect of climate change on the African road infrastructure. The study identifies both total costs and opportunity costs of repairing and maintaining infrastructure due to increased stressors from climate change. Proactive and reactive costs are examined for six climate scenarios, with costs ranging, respectively, from an average of $22 million USD to $54 million USD annually per country. A regional analysis shows contrast between impacts in five areas of the continent, with impacts ranging from 22 % opportunity cost to 168 %. These costs have the potential to delay critical infrastructure development on the continent and present a challenge to policy makers balancing short-term needs with long-term planning.     

Impact assessment of climate change,carbon dioxide fertilization and constant growing season on rice yields in China

Rice is the staple food in China, and the country’s enlarging population puts increasing pressure on its rice production as well as on that of the world. In this study, we estimate the impact of climate change, CO₂ fertilization, crop adaptation and the interactions of these three factors on the rice yields of China using model simulation with four hypothetical scenarios. According to the results of the model simulation, the rice yields without CO₂ fertilization are predicted to decrease by 3.3 % in the 2040s. Considering a constant rice-growing season (GS), the rice yields are predicted to increase by 3.2 %. When the effect of CO₂ fertilization is integrated into the Agro-C model, the expected rice yields increase by 20.9 %. When constant GS and CO₂ fertilization are both integrated into the model, the predicted rice yield increases by 28.6 %. In summary, the rice yields in China are predicted to decrease in the 2040s by 0.22 t/ha due to climate change, to increase by 0.44 t/ha due to a constant GS and to increase by 1.65 t/ha due to CO₂ fertilization. The benefits of crop adaptation would completely offset the negative impact of climate change. In the future, the most of the positive effects of climate change are expected to occur in northeastern and northwestern China, and the expansion of rice cultivation in northeastern China should further enhance the stability of rice production in China.     

Evaluation of hydrological effect of stakeholder prioritized climate change adaptation options based on multi-model regional climate projections

An integrated process involving participatory and modelling approaches for prioritizing and evaluating climate change adaptation options for the Kangsabati reservoir catchment is presented here. We assess the potential effects of climate change on water resources and evaluate the ability of stakeholder prioritized adaptation options to address adaptation requirements using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. Two adaptation options, check dams and increasing forest cover, are prioritized using pair-wise comparison and scenario analysis. Future streamflow projections are generated for the mid-21^st century period (2021–2050) using four high resolution (~25 km) Regional Climate Models and their ensemble mean for SRES A1B scenario. WEAP simulations indicate that, compared to a base scenario without adaptation, both adaptation options reduce streamflow. In comparison to check dams, increasing forest cover shows greater ability to address adaptation requirements as demonstrated by the temporal pattern and magnitude of streamflow reduction. Additionally, over the 30 year period, effectiveness of check dams in reducing streamflow decreases by up to 40 %, while that of forest cover increases by up to 47 %. Our study highlights the merits of a comparative assessment of adaptation options and we conclude that a combined approach involving stakeholders, scenario analysis, modelling techniques and multi-model projections may support climate change adaptation decision-making in the face of uncertainty.     

Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change

Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.     

Interactions Between the Atmospheric Sciences and Insurers in the United States

Insurance and insurers are directly affected and concerned about climate fluctuations in the United States. Growing losses in the 1990s awakened many in the insurance business to the enormity of weather-related problems they faced and a need for better information about climate and its fluctuations including a new potential problem, climate change. This paper presents the views of experts from the crop insurance sector, the property-casualty insurance sector, and from the atmospheric sciences sector based on atmospheric research accomplished for the insurance industry for decades. The paper addresses how climatologists and insurers can and need to work together to effectively bring understanding and wise consideration of climate conditions and their future fluctuations and extremes to insurers. Considerable climatological analyses have been employed in the past by the crop insurance industry, but less by property insurers. Insurers can adjust to a change in climate but to do so will require clear evidence, which does not exist now for the United States, and an understanding as well as wide acceptance of the on-going change by regulators and the buying public. Atmospheric scientists can help insurers to mitigate weather losses, to assess risks, to measure critical perils, to educate about risks, and to learn about critical issues like climate change and long-range forecasts.     

An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India

A simulation analysis was carried out using the InfoCrop-rice model to quantify impacts and adaptation gains, as well as to identify vulnerable regions for irrigated and rain fed rice cultivation in future climates in India. Climates in A1b, A2, B1 and B2 emission scenarios as per a global climate model (MIROC3.2.HI) and a regional climate model (PRECIS) were considered for the study. On an aggregated scale, the mean of all emission scenarios indicate that climate change is likely to reduce irrigated rice yields by ~4 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ~7 % in 2050 (2040–2069), and by ~10 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios. On the other hand, rainfed rice yields in India are likely to be reduced by ~6 % in the 2020 scenario, but in the 2050 and 2080 scenarios they are projected to decrease only marginally (<2.5 %). However, spatial variations exist for the magnitude of the impact, with some regions likely to be affected more than others. Adaptation strategies comprising agronomical management can offset negative impacts in the near future—particularly in rainfed conditions—but in the longer run, developing suitable varieties coupled with improved and efficient crop husbandry will become essential. For irrigated rice crop, genotypic and agronomic improvements will become crucial; while for rainfed conditions, improved management and additional fertilizers will be needed. Basically climate change is likely to exhibit three types of impacts on rice crop: i) regions that are adversely affected by climate change can gain in net productivity with adaptation; ii) regions that are adversely affected will still remain vulnerable despite adaptation gains; and iii) rainfed regions (with currently low rainfall) that are likely to gain due to increase in rainfall can further benefit by adaptation. Regions falling in the vulnerable category even after suggested adaptation to climate change will require more intensive, specific and innovative adaptation options. The present analysis indicates the possibility of substantial improvement in yields with efficient utilization of inputs and adoption of improved varieties.     

Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding

Tens of millions of people around the world are already exposed to coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Global warming has the potential to increase hurricane flooding, both by hurricane intensification and by sea level rise. In this paper, the impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise are evaluated using hydrodynamic surge models and by considering the future climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the Corpus Christi, Texas, United States study region, mean projections indicate hurricane flood elevation (meteorologically generated storm surge plus sea level rise) will, on average, rise by 0.3 m by the 2030s and by 0.8 m by the 2080s. For catastrophic-type hurricane surge events, flood elevations are projected to rise by as much as 0.5 m and 1.8 m by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively.     

气候保险的概念、理论及在中国的发展建议

气候风险可能给人类社会带来巨大的生命和财产损失,气候保险通过转移分散风险成为应对气候风险的有效机制。文中首先在辨析气候保险的概念和市场机制等理论基础上,分析了气候保险存在逆向选择风险与难以满足大数法则、存在道德风险与反馈效应的问题;其次梳理了发达国家气候保险的发展情况,其风险分散和转移功能比较强,保费一部分存在政府补贴,一般采取政府紧急贷款、再保险和保险衍生品的方式进一步分散风险,但是也存在道德风险的问题。最后分析了中国气候保险的发展现状发现存在着难以满足大数法则的问题,道德风险尚无明确体现,并提出建议:完善气象站基础设施、制定自然灾害风险地图、提高公众和敏感行业气候保险的购买意愿等尽量使气候保险满足大数法则;促使保险公司在设计保险产品时考虑非经济成本,未雨绸缪避免道德风险及反馈效应;适时发展气候再保险和保险衍生品,建立分散和转移风险的市场机制。     

A comparative assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the ski industry in New Zealand and Australia

In this paper we assess the impact of climate change, at a micro-scale for a selection of four sites in New Zealand and Australia. These sites are representative of the key destination ski regions. In contrast to previous work, our work will for the first time, allow for a direct comparison between these two countries and enable both an estimate of the absolute impacts at a given site, as well as the relative impacts between the two countries. This direct comparison is possible because we have used exactly the same snow model, the same 3 global climate models (GCMs) and the same techniques to calibrate the model for all locations. We consider the changes in natural snow at these locations for the 2030–2049 and 2080–2099 time periods, for one mid-range emissions scenario (A1B). This future scenario is compared to simulations of current, 1980–1999, snow at these locations. We did not consider the snowmaking or economic components of the ski industry vulnerability, only the modelled changes in the natural snow component. At our New Zealand sites, our model indicates that by the 2040s there will be on average between 90 % and 102 % of the current maximum snow depth (on 31 August) and by the 2090s this will be on average reduced to between 46 % and 74 %. In Australia, our models estimates that by the 2040s there will be on average between 57 % and 78 % of the current maximum snow depth and by the 2090s this will be on average further reduced to between 21 % and 29 %. In terms of days with snowdepths equal to or exceeding a ski industry useable levels of 0.30 m, at our lowest elevation, and most sensitive sites, we observe a change from 125 days (current) to 99–126 (2040s) and 52–110 (2090s) in New Zealand. In Australia, a reduction from 94 to 155 days (current) to 81–114 (2040s) and 0–75 (2090s) is observed. In each case the changes are highly depended on the GCM used to drive the climate change scenario. While the absolute changes will have direct impacts at each location, so too will the relative changes with respect to future potential Australia–New Zealand tourism flows, and beyond. Our study provides an approach by which other regions or countries with climate sensitive tourism enterprises could assess the relative impacts and therefore the potential wider ranging ramifications with respect to destination attractiveness.     

Risk assessment of hurricane winds for Eglin air force base in northwestern Florida, USA

Hurricane winds present a significant hazard for coastal infrastructure. An estimate of the local risk of extreme wind speeds is made using a new method that combines historical hurricane records with a deterministic wind field model. The method is applied to Santa Rosa Island located in the northwestern panhandle region of Florida, USA. Firstly, a hurricane track is created for a landfall location on the island that represents the worst-case scenario for Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB). The track is based on averaging the paths of historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the landfall location. Secondly, an extreme-value statistical model is used to estimate 100-year wind speeds at locations along the average track based again on historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the track locations. Thirdly, the 100-year wind speeds together with information about hurricane size and forward speed are used as input to the HAZUS hurricane wind field model to produce a wind swath across EAFB. Results show a 100-year hurricane wind gust on Santa Rosa Island of 58 (±5) m?s^?1 (90% CI). A 100-year wind gust at the same location based on a 105-year simulation of hurricanes is lower at 55?m?s^?1, but within the 90% confidence limits. Based on structural damage functions and building stock data for the region, the 100-year hurricane wind swath results in $574 million total loss to residential and commercial buildings, not including military infrastructure, with 25% of all buildings receiving at least some damage. This methodology may be applied to other coastal areas and adapted to predict extreme winds and their impacts under climate variability and change.     

Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of Europe based on bottom up analysis: human health

This paper scopes a number of the health impacts of climate change in Europe (EU-27) quantitatively, using physical and monetary metrics. Temperature-related mortality effects, salmonellosis and coastal flooding-induced mental health impacts resulting from climate change are isolated from the effects of socio-economic change for the 2011–2040 and 2071–2100 time periods. The temperature-induced mortality effects of climate change include both positive and negative effects, for winter (cold) and summer (heat) effects, respectively, and have welfare costs (and benefits) of up to 100 billion Euro annually by the later time-period, though these are unevenly distributed across countries. The role of uncertainty in quantifying these effects is explored through sensitivity analysis on key parameters. This investigates climate model output, climate scenario, impact function, the existence and extent of acclimatisation, and the choice of physical and monetary metrics. While all of these lead to major differences in reported results, acclimatisation is particularly important in determining the size of the health impacts, and could influence the scale and form of public adaptation at the EU and national level. The welfare costs for salmonellosis from climate change are estimated at potentially several hundred million Euro annually by the period 2071–2100. Finally, a scoping assessment of the health costs of climate change from coastal flooding, focusing on mental health problems such as depression, are estimated at up to 1.5 billion Euro annually by the period 2071–2100.     

Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance: A comprehensive study for the Netherlands

Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk through undertaking damage mitigation measures. However, the uncertainty about the development of future flood risk in the face of climate and socio-economic change may complicate insurers’ rate-setting of long-term contracts. This issue has been examined in this study by estimating the effects of these changes on flood risk and pricing flood insurance premiums of short- and long-term flood insurance contracts in all (53) dike-ring areas in the Netherlands. A broad range of simulations with hydrological and flood damage models are used to estimate the future development of flood risk and premiums. In addition, the long-term development of insurance funds is estimated with a spatial “Climate Risk Insurance Model (CRIM)” for a private insurance arrangement and for a ‘three-layered’ public-private insurance program. The estimation of flood insurance premiums of long-term insurance contracts reveals fundamental problems. One is that there is an incentive for either the consumer or the insurer to prefer short-term rather than long-term contracts in the face of climate-related uncertainty. Therefore, it seems advisable to examine the introduction of one-year flood insurance contracts in the Netherlands, at least until the large uncertainties with climate and socio-economic change on flood risk have been resolved. The estimations performed with the Climate Risk Insurance Model indicate that a private insurance fund could have difficulties with building up enough financial reserves to pay for flood damage, while the layered public-private insurance scheme is more robust.     

Difficulties in accounting for private finance in international climate policy

It is widely acknowledged that private finance has a key role to play in achieving low-carbon development and resilience to climate change. However, while there have been several studies that have closely examined the data on public climate finance, there have been few such studies of the private climate-related finance data. There is a political dimension to accounting for ‘private finance’ given the commitment of industrialized countries – enshrined in the Copenhagen Accord and the Cancun Agreements – to mobilize US$100 billion of public and private finance for developing countries by 2020, on an annual basis. The availability and quality of data for different types of private climate finance flows with climate benefits (investments, carbon market payments, and voluntary funding) are analysed, and these flows are assessed according to various criteria for inclusion in the $100 billion figure. While existing data suggest that private climate finance invested in developing countries and mobilized by industrialized countries might currently be in the range of $27–123 billion per year, this number is a questionable point of reference. Existing data are limited and of very poor quality: definitions of ‘private climate finance’ are missing and data are hardly verified. Therefore, policy makers will first have to clearly define ‘private climate finance’ and develop systems for measuring, reporting, and verifying it, before using private finance numbers in international climate agreements.     

Hurricane preparedness as anticipatory adaptation: A case study of community businesses

This paper examines adaptation to current storm surge flood risk as one indicator of anticipatory adaptation to climate change impacts. Focusing on community businesses, a web-based survey obtained information on hurricane preparedness and risk perceptions in Sarasota County, Florida. A model of current precautionary action that utilized previously identified business characteristics predictive of business preparedness and post-disaster recovery, a spatial variable indicating storm surge exposure, and items measuring the risk perception and information-seeking behavior of business owners explained a majority of the variance in current levels of preparedness. Use of online risk information sources and the geographic distribution of customers and were the strongest predictors of preparedness. Results indicate that the adaptive capacity of businesses may vary significantly with types of businesses, locations, and socio-cognitive characteristics of business owners. To encourage overall community resilience, risk communication efforts should be targeted based on specific elements that predict business preparedness.     

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO₂ equivalent using 100-year CH₄ global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH₄ GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH₄ even though CH₄ was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.     

Assessing the spatial impact of climate on wheat productivity and the potential value of climate forecasts at a regional level

Quantification of the spatial impact of climate on crop productivity and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts can effectively assist the strategic planning of crop layout and help to understand to what extent climate risk can be managed through responsive management strategies at a regional level. A simulation study was carried out to assess the climate impact on the performance of a dryland wheat-fallow system and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in nitrogen management in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia. Daily climate data (1889–2002) from 57 stations were used with the agricultural systems simulator (APSIM) to simulate wheat productivity and nitrogen requirement as affected by climate. On a good soil, simulated grain yield ranged from <2 t/ha in west inland to >7 t/ha in the east border regions. Optimal nitrogen rates ranged from <60 kgN/ha/yr to >200 kgN/ha/yr. Simulated gross margin was in the range of –$20/ha to $700/ha, increasing eastwards. Wheat yield was closely related to rainfall in the growing season and the stored soil moisture at sowing time. The impact of stored soil moisture increased from southwest to northeast. Simulated annual deep drainage ranged from zero in western inland to >200 mm in the east. Nitrogen management, optimised based on ‘perfect’ knowledge of daily weather in the coming season, could add value of $26～$79/ha compared to management optimised based on historical climate, with the maximum occurring in central to western part of MDB. It would also reduce the nitrogen application by 5～25 kgN/ha in the main cropping areas. Comparison of simulation results with the current land use mapping in MDB revealed that the western boundary of the current cropping zone approximated the isolines of 160 mm of growing season rainfall, 2.5t/ha of wheat grain yield, and $150/ha of gross margin in QLD and NSW. In VIC and SA, the 160-mm isohyets corresponded relatively lower simulated yield due to less stored soil water. Impacts of other factors like soil types were also discussed.     

Multi-year prediction model of North Atlantic hurricane activity

Summary An empirical prediction algorithm is developed to assess the potential of useful multi-season forecasts of North Atlantic hurricane activity. The algorithm is based on combining separate univariate autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for each of three dominant components of hurricane activity. A Bayesian criterion is used to select the order of each model. In a single retroactive hindcast experiment, the algorithm is found to make better hindcasts than an ARMA model of the detrended series. A real-time forecast of hurricane activity for the 1997 North Atlantic hurricane season proves to be more accurate than two competitive single-season forecast models. It is expected that the routine use of the forecast algorithm in an operational setting will result in only marginal skill against climatology; it could however offer considerable forecast value as realized by benefits to decision makers in the reinsurance industry.With 4 Figures