Techniques for assessing the climatic sensitivity of river flow regimes

Regimes are useful tools for characterizing the seasonal behaviour of river flow and other hydroclimatological variables over an annual cycle (hydrological year). This paper develops and tests: (i) a regime classification method to identify spatial and temporal patterns in intraannual hydroclimatological response; and (ii) a novel sensitivity index (SI) to assess river flow regimes' climatic sensitivity. The classification of regime shape (form) and magnitude considers the whole annual cycle rather than isolating a single month or season for analysis, which has been the common approach of previous studies. The classification method is particularly useful for identifying large‐scale patterns in regimes and their between‐year stability, thus providing a context for short‐term, small‐scale process‐based research. The SI provides a means of assessing the often‐complex linkages between climatic drivers and river flow, as it identifies the strength and direction of associations between classifications of climate and river flow regimes. The SI has the potential for application to other problems where relationships between nominal classifications require to be found. These techniques are evaluated by application to a test data set of river flow, air temperature and rainfall time‐series (1974–1999) for a sample of 35 UK river basins. The results support current knowledge about the hydroclimatology of the UK. Although this research does not seek to yield new, detailed physical process understanding, it provides perspective at large spatial and temporal scales upon climate and flow regime patterns and quantifies linkages. Having clearly demonstrated the regime classification and SI to be effective in an environment where the hydroclimatology is relatively well known, there appears to be much to gain from applying these techniques in parts of the world where patterns and associations between climate and hydrology are poorly understood. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inter‐annual variability in the effects of riparian woodland on micro‐climate,energy exchanges and water temperature of an upland Scottish stream

The influence of riparian woodland on stream temperature, micro‐climate and energy exchange was investigated over seven calendar years. Continuous data were collected from two reaches of the Girnock Burn (a tributary of the Aberdeenshire Dee, Scotland) with contrasting land use characteristics: (1) semi‐natural riparian forest and (2) open moorland. In the moorland reach, wind speed and energy fluxes (especially net radiation, latent heat and sensible heat) varied considerably between years because of variable riparian micro‐climate coupled strongly to prevailing meteorological conditions. In the forested reach, riparian vegetation sheltered the stream from meteorological conditions that produced a moderated micro‐climate and thus energy exchange conditions, which were relatively stable between years. Net energy gains (losses) in spring and summer (autumn and winter) were typically greater in the moorland than the forest. However, when particularly high latent heat loss or low net radiation gain occurred in the moorland, net energy gain (loss) was less than that in the forest during the spring and summer (autumn and winter) months. Spring and summer water temperature was typically cooler in the forest and characterised by less inter‐annual variability due to reduced, more inter‐annually stable energy gain in the forested reach. The effect of riparian vegetation on autumn and winter water temperature dynamics was less clear because of the confounding effects of reach‐scale inflows of thermally stable groundwater in the moorland reach, which strongly influenced the local heat budget. These findings provide new insights as to the hydrometeorological conditions under which semi‐natural riparian forest may be effective in mitigating river thermal variability, notably peaks, under present and future climates. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Temporal trends of hydro‐climatic variables and runoff response to climatic variability and vegetation changes in the Yiluo River basin,China

The Yiluo River is the largest tributary for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River below Sanmenxia Dam. Changes of the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin, influenced by the climatic variability and human activities, can directly affect ecological integrity in the lower reach of the Yellow River. Understanding the impact of the climatic variability and human activities on the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin is especially important to maintain the ecosystem integrity and sustain the society development in the lower reach of the Yellow River basin. In this study, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and runoff during 1961–2000 in the Yiluo River basin were explored by the Mann‐Kendall method (M‐K method), Yamamoto method and linear fitted model. The impacts of the climatic variability and vegetation changes on the annual runoff were discussed by the empirical model and simple water balance model and their contribution to change of annual runoff have been estimated. Results indicated that (i) significant upwards trend for air temperature and significant downwards trend both for precipitation and ET₀ were detected by the M‐K method at 95% confidence level. And the consistent trends were obtained by the linear fitted model; (ii) the abrupt change started from 1987 detected by the M‐K method and Yamamoto method, and so the annual runoff during 1961–2000 was divided into two periods: baseline period (1961–1986) and changeable period (1987–2000); and (iii) the vegetation changes were the main cause for change of annual runoff from baseline period to changeable period, and climatic variability contributed a little to the change of annual runoff of the Yiluo River. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wavelet analysis of inter‐annual variability in the runoff regimes of glacial and nival stream catchments,Bow Lake,Alberta

Continuous wavelet analyses of hourly time series of air temperature, stream discharge, and precipitation are used to compare the seasonal and inter‐annual variability in hydrological regimes of the two principal streams feeding Bow Lake, Banff National Park, Alberta: the glacial stream draining the Wapta Icefields, and the snowmelt‐fed Bow River. The goal is to understand how water sources and flow routing differ between the two catchments. Wavelet spectra and cross‐wavelet spectra were determined for air temperature and discharge from the two streams for summers (June–September) 1997–2000, and for rainfall and discharge for the summers of 1999 and 2000. The diurnal signal of the glacial runoff was orders of magnitude higher in 1998 than in other years, indicating that significant ice exposure and the development of channelized glacial drainage occurred as a result of the 1997–98 El Niño conditions. Early retreat of the snowpack in 1997 and 1998 led to a significant summer‐long input of melt runoff from a small area of ice cover in the Bow River catchment; but such inputs were not apparent in 1999 and 2000, when snow cover was more extensive. Rainfall had a stronger influence on runoff and followed quicker flow paths in the Bow River catchment than in the glacial catchment. Snowpack thickness and catchment size were the primary controls on the phase relationship between temperature and discharge at diurnal time scales. Wavelet analysis is a fast and effective means to characterize runoff, temperature, and precipitation regimes and their interrelationships and inter‐annual variability. The technique is effective at identifying inter‐annual and seasonal changes in the relative contributions of different water sources to runoff, and changes in the time required for routing of diurnal meltwater pulses through a catchment. However, it is less effective at identifying changes/differences in the type of the flow routing (e.g. overland flow versus through flow) between or within catchments. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends and multi‐annual variability of water temperatures in the river Danube,Serbia

The relationship between air (Ta) and water temperature (Tw) is very important because it shows how the temperature of a water body might respond to future changes in surface Ta. Mean monthly Tw records of three gauging stations (Bezdan, Bogojevo i Veliko Gradi?te) were analysed alongside mean monthly discharge (Q) for the same stations. Additionally, Ta series from two meteorological stations (Sombor and Veliko Gradi?te) were correlated with Tw variations over the period 1950–2012. Locally weighted scatter point smoothing (LOWESS) was used to investigate long‐term trends in the raw data, alongside the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test. Trend significance was established using Yue–Pilon's pre‐whitening approaches to determine trends in climate data. Also, the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used to detect dates of possible changes in the time series. Statistically significant warming trends were observed for annual and seasonal minimum and maximum Tw at all investigated sites. The strongest warming was observed at Bogojevo gauging station for seasonal maximum Tw, with +0.05 °C per year on average. RAPS established that the trend began in the 1980s. This behaviour is linked to climate patterns in the North and East Atlantic which determine the amount of heat advected onto mainland Europe. Statistically significant correlations were found for all Tw on an annual basis. Overall, the strongest correlations (p < 0.01) between Tw residuals and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were recorded for the winter period. These findings suggest possible predictability of Tw over seasonal time‐scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inter‐comparison of hydro‐climatic regimes across northern catchments: synchronicity,resistance and resilience

The higher mid‐latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are particularly sensitive to climate change as small differences in temperature determine frozen ground status, precipitation phase, and the magnitude and timing of snow accumulation and melt. An international inter‐catchment comparison program, North‐Watch, seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to climate change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical responses. The catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). This briefing presents the initial stage of the North‐Watch program, which focuses on how these catchments collect, store and release water and identify ‘types’ of hydro‐climatic catchment response. At most sites, a 10‐year data of daily precipitation, discharge and temperature were compiled and evaporation and storage were calculated. Inter‐annual and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes were assessed via normalized fluxes and standard flow metrics. At the annual‐scale, relations between temperature, precipitation and discharge were compared, highlighting the role of seasonality, wetness and snow/frozen ground. The seasonal pattern and synchronicity of fluxes at the monthly scale provided insight into system memory and the role of storage. We identified types of catchments that rapidly translate precipitation into runoff and others that more readily store water for delayed release. Synchronicity and variance of rainfall–runoff patterns were characterized by the coefficient of variation (cv) of monthly fluxes and correlation coefficients. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed clustering among like catchments in terms of functioning, largely controlled by two components that (i) reflect temperature and precipitation gradients and the correlation of monthly precipitation and discharge and (ii) the seasonality of precipitation and storage. By advancing the ecological concepts of resistance and resilience for catchment functioning, results provided a conceptual framework for understanding susceptibility to hydrological change across northern catchments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of stream water temperature regimes from open and afforested moorland,Yorkshire Dales,northern England

Despite the known importance of water temperature for river ecosystems, the thermal regime of streams and rivers can be heavily modified by afforestation. Although the nature of the heat budget affecting streams in forested catchments shows high variability in space and time, most of the studies of stream temperature response to afforestation have lacked replication among streams. This study examined the impacts of coniferous forest plantations on stream water temperature at six sites (three forested and three open moorland) in the Yorkshire Dales, northern England. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that afforestation would alter the thermal regime of streams, leading to reduced year‐round thermal variability, and cooler summer/warmer winter water temperatures, relative to streams flowing across open moorland. Data collected from April 2007 to March 2009 showed similar thermal dynamics among all six streams over the study period, although variability in forested streams was markedly lower as expected. Mean and maximum daily water temperatures were significantly higher in open moorland streams for much of the year but while some forested streams were warmer than individual moorland streams during winter months (November to February), there was considerable overlap in water temperature between moorland and forest streams. Most stream temperature records showed evidence of low/no winter flow and freezing. These results contrast with many previous studies that have reported warmer temperatures in forested versus open moorland streams during winter, a finding that most likely reflects site‐specific hydrological, geomorphological and climatological influences on water temperature in addition to afforestation. This study demonstrates the need for replication of hydrological monitoring when examining the effects of basin‐scale management practices and provides further evidence for changes in stream thermal regime following afforestation, a practice that is likely to increase in future due to growing demands for increased forest cover in the UK uplands. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

T‐NET,a dynamic model for simulating daily stream temperature at the regional scale based on a network topology

Currently, the distribution areas of aquatic species are studied by using air temperature as a proxy of water temperature, which is not available at a regional scale. To simulate water temperature at a regional scale, a physically based model using the equilibrium temperature concept and including upstream‐downstream propagation of the thermal signal is proposed. This model, called Temperature‐NETwork (T‐NET), is based on a hydrographical network topology and was tested at the Loire basin scale (10⁵ km²). The T‐NET model obtained a mean root mean square error of 1.6 °C at a daily time step on the basis of 128 water temperature stations (2008–2012). The model obtained excellent performance at stations located on small and medium rivers (distance from headwater <100 km) that are strongly influenced by headwater conditions (median root mean square error of 1.8 °C). The shading factor and the headwater temperature were the most important variables on the mean simulated temperature, while the river discharge influenced the daily temperature variation and diurnal amplitude. The T‐NET model simulates specific events, such as temperature of the Loire during the floods of June 1992 and the thermal regime response of streams during the heatwave of August 2003, much more efficiently than a simple point‐scale heat balance model. The T‐NET model is very consistent at a regional scale and could easily be transposed to changing forcing conditions and to other catchments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study of stream temperature dynamics and corresponding heat fluxes within Miramichi River catchments (New Brunswick,Canada)

Water temperature is a key physical habitat determinant in lotic ecosystems as it influences many physical, chemical, and biological properties of rivers. Hence, a good understanding of the thermal regime of rivers and river heat fluxes is essential for effective management of water and fisheries resources. This study dealt with the modelling of river water temperature using a deterministic model. This model calculated the different heat fluxes at the water surface and from the streambed using different hydrometeorological conditions. The water temperature model was applied on two watercourses of different sizes and thermal characteristics, but within a similar meteorological region, namely, the Little Southwest Miramichi River and Catamaran Brook (New Brunswick, Canada). The model was also applied using microclimate data, i.e. meteorological conditions within the river environment (1–2 m above the water surface), for a better estimation of river heat fluxes. Water temperatures at different depths within the riverbed were also used to estimate the streambed heat fluxes. Results showed that microclimate data were essential to get accurate estimates of the surface heat fluxes. Results also showed that for larger river systems, the surface heat fluxes were generally the dominant component of the heat budget with a correspondingly smaller contribution from the streambed. As watercourses became smaller and groundwater contribution more significant, the streambed contribution became important. For instance, approximately 80% of the heat fluxes occurred at the surface for Catamaran Brook (20% from the streambed) whereas the Little Southwest Miramichi River showed values closer to 90% (10% from the streambed). As was reported in previous studies, the solar radiation input dominated the contribution to the heat gain at 63% for Catamaran Brook and 89% for Little Southwest Miramichi River. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The rates and spatial patterns of annual riverbank erosion revealed through terrestrial laser‐scanner surveys of the South River,Virginia

Between a.d. 2006 and 2008, we completed annual surveys of two mercury‐contaminated eroding banks, one forested and the other grass covered, along the gravel‐bed, bedrock South River in Virginia. Gridded digital terrain models with a resolution of 0·05 m were created from bank topography data collected using a terrestrial laser scanner. Model comparisons indicate that the forested bank retreated nearly 1 m around two leaning trees, while elsewhere the extent of bank retreat was negligible. On the grassy bank, retreat was controlled by the creation of small overhanging clumps of turf at the top of the bank, their occasional failure, and the ultimate removal of failed debris from the bank toe. Partial autocorrelation analysis of vertically integrated bank retreat demonstrates that bank profile erosion is virtually uncorrelated at horizontal distances greater than about 1 m on both banks, a length scale of approximately half the bank height. This extensive streamwise variability suggests that widely spaced profile data cannot adequately represent bank erosion at these sites. Additional analysis of our comprehensive spatial data also indicates that traditional bank profile surveys with any spacing greater than 1 m would result in measurement errors exceeding 10%, an important conclusion for assessing annual rates of mercury loading into the South River from bank erosion. Our results suggest that three‐dimensional gridded bare‐earth models of bank topography may be required to accurately measure annual bank retreat in similar river systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stream and bed temperature variability in a coastal headwater catchment: influences of surface‐subsurface interactions and partial‐retention forest harvesting

Stream temperature was recorded between 2002 and 2005 at four sites in a coastal headwater catchment in British Columbia, Canada. Shallow groundwater temperatures, along with bed temperature profiles at depths of 1 to 30 cm, were recorded at 10‐min intervals in two hydrologically distinct reaches beginning in 2003 or 2004, depending on the site. The lower reach had smaller discharge contributions via lateral inflow from the hillslopes and fewer areas with upwelling (UW) and/or neutral flow across the stream bed compared to the middle reach. Bed temperatures were greater than those of shallow groundwater during summer, with higher temperatures in areas of downwelling (DW) flow compared to areas of neutral and UW flow. A paired‐catchment analysis revealed that partial‐retention forest harvesting in autumn 2004 resulted in higher daily maximum stream and bed temperatures but smaller changes in daily minima. Changes in daily maximum stream temperature, averaged over July and August of the post‐harvest year, ranged from 1.6 to 3 °C at different locations within the cut block. Post‐harvest changes in bed temperature in the lower reach were smaller than the changes in stream temperature, greater at sites with DW flow, and decreased with depth at both UW and DW sites, dropping to about 1 °C at a depth of 30 cm. In the middle reach, changes in daily maximum bed temperature, averaged over July and August, were generally about 1 °C and did not vary significantly with depth. The pre‐harvest regression models for shallow groundwater were not suitable for applying the paired‐catchment analysis to estimate the effects of harvesting. However, shallow groundwater was warmer at the lower reach following harvesting, despite generally cooler weather compared to the pre‐harvest year. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of annual high‐water events for the Mackenzie River basin,Canada

River ice break‐up is known to have important morphological, ecological and socio‐economic effects on cold‐regions river environments. One of the most persistent effects of the spring break‐up period is the occurrence of high‐water events. A return‐period assessment of maximum annual nominal water depths occurring during the spring break‐up and open‐water season at 28 Water Survey of Canada hydrometric sites over the 1913–2002 time period in the Mackenzie River basin is presented. For the return periods assessed, 13 (14) stations are dominated by peak events occurring during the spring break‐up (open‐water) season. One location is determined to have a mixed signal. A regime classification is proposed to separate ice‐ and open‐water dominated systems. As part of the regime classification procedure, specific characteristics of return‐period patterns including alignment, and difference between the 2 and 10‐year events are used to identify regime types. A dimensionless stage‐discharge plot allows for a contrast of the relative magnitudes of flows required to generate maximum nominal water‐depth events in the different regimes. At sites where discharge during the spring break‐up is approximately one‐quarter or greater than the magnitude of the peak annual discharge, nominal water depths can be expected to exceed those occurring during the peak annual discharge event. Several physical factors (location, basin area, stream order, gradient, river orientation, and climate) are considered to explain the differing regimes and discussed relative to the major sub‐regions of the MRB. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada.     

Prediction of river water temperature: a comparison between a new family of hybrid models and statistical approaches

River water temperature is a key physical variable controlling several chemical, biological and ecological processes. Its reliable prediction is a main issue in many environmental applications, which however is hampered by data scarcity, when using data‐demanding deterministic models, and modelling limitations, when using simpler statistical models. In this work we test a suite of models belonging to air2stream family, which are characterized by a hybrid formulation that combines a physical derivation of the key equation with a stochastic calibration of parameters. The air2stream models rely solely on air temperature and streamflow, and are of similar complexity as standard statistical models. The performances of the different versions of air2stream in predicting river water temperature are compared with those of the most common statistical models typically used in the literature. To this aim, a dataset of 38 Swiss rivers is used, which includes rivers classified into four different categories according to their hydrological characteristics: low‐land natural rivers, lake outlets, snow‐fed rivers and regulated rivers. The results of the analysis provide practical indications regarding the type of model that is most suitable to simulate river water temperature across different time scales (from daily to seasonal) and for different hydrological regimes. A model intercomparison exercise suggests that the family of air2stream hybrid models generally outperforms statistical models, while cross‐validation conducted over a 30‐year period indicates that they can be suitably adopted for long‐term analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Woody buffer effects on water temperature: The role of spatial configuration and daily temperature fluctuations

Water temperature is a key driver for riverine biota and strongly depends on shading by woody riparian vegetation in summer. While the general effects of shading on daily maximum water temperature T_max are well understood, knowledge gaps on the role of the spatial configuration still exist. In this study, the effect of riparian buffer length, width, and canopy cover (percentage of buffer area covered by woody vegetation) on T_max was investigated during summer baseflow using data measured in seven small lowland streams in western Germany (wetted width 0.8–3.7 m). The effect of buffer length on T_max differed between downstream cooling and heating: T_max approached cooler equilibrium conditions after a distance of 0.4 km (~45 min travel-time) downstream of a sharp increase in canopy cover. In contrast, T_max continued to rise downstream of a sharp decrease in canopy cover along the whole 1.6 km stream length investigated. The effect of woody vegetation on T_max depended on buffer width, with changes in canopy cover in a 10 m wide buffer being a better predictor for changes in T_max compared to a 30 m buffer. The effect of woody vegetation on T_max was linearly related to canopy cover but also depended on daily temperature range T_range, which itself was governed by cloudiness, upstream canopy cover, and season. The derived empirical relationship indicated that T_max was reduced by −4.6°C and increased by +2.7°C downstream of a change from unshaded to fully shaded conditions and vice versa. This maximum effect was predicted for a 10 m wide buffer at sunny days in early summer, in streams with large diel fluctuations (large T_range). Therefore, even narrow woody riparian buffers may substantially reduce the increase in T_max due to climate change, especially in small shallow headwater streams with low baseflow discharge and large daily temperature fluctuations.     

Post‐European settlement response gradients of river sensitivity and recovery across the upper Hunter catchment,Australia

Most analyses of river adjustment have focused on parts of catchments where metamorphosis has occurred. This provides a non‐representative view of river responses to human‐disturbance. Although many rivers have been subjected to systematic land‐use change and disturbance, significant variability is evident in the form, extent and consequences of adjustment. This study documents the catchment‐wide distribution of river sensitivity and adjustment in the upper Hunter catchment, New South Wales, Australia in the period since European settlement. The spatial distribution and timing of lateral, vertical and wholesale river adjustments are used to assess river sensitivity to change. The type and pattern of rivers, influenced largely by valley setting, have induced a fragmented pattern of river adjustment in the upper Hunter catchment. Adjustments have been largely non‐uniform and localized, reflecting the predominance of bedrock‐controlled rivers which have limited capacity to adjust and are resilient to change. Less than 20% of river courses have experienced metamorphosis. Phases of reach‐scale geomorphic adjustment to human disturbance are characterized as a gradient of primary, secondary and tertiary responses. In general terms, primary responses such as cutoffs or straightening were followed by secondary responses such as channel expansion. These secondary responses occurred between 50–70 years after initial disturbance. A subsequent tertiary phase of river recovery, denoted as a transition from predominantly erosional to predominantly depositional geomorphic processes such as channel contraction, occurred around 70–120 years after initial disturbance. Such responses are ongoing across much of the upper Hunter catchment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐wave radiation and heat flux estimates within a small tributary in Catamaran Brook (New Brunswick,Canada)

River water temperature is an important water quality parameter that also influences most aquatic life. Physical processes influencing water temperature in rivers are highly complex. This is especially true for the estimation of river heat exchange processes that are highly dependent on good estimates of radiation fluxes. Furthermore, very few studies were found within the stream temperature dynamic literature where the different radiation components have been measured and compared at the stream level (at microclimate conditions). Therefore, this study presents results on hydrometeorological conditions for a small tributary within Catamaran Brook (part of the Miramichi River system, New Brunswick, Canada) with the following specific objectives: (1) to compare between stream microclimate and remote meteorological conditions, (2) to compare measured long‐wave radiation data with those calculated from an analytical model, and (3), to calculate the corresponding river heat fluxes. The most salient findings of this study are (1) solar radiation and wind speed are parameters that are highly site specific within the river environment and play an important role in the estimation of river heat fluxes; (2) the incoming, outgoing, and net long‐wave radiation within the stream environment (under the forest canopy) can be effectively calculated using empirical formula; (3) at the study site more than 80% of the incoming long‐wave radiation was coming from the forest; (4) total energy gains were dominated by solar radiation flux (for all the study periods) followed by the net long‐wave radiation (during some periods) whereas energy losses were coming from both the net long‐wave radiation and evaporation. Conductive heat fluxes have a minor contribution from the overall heat budget (<3·5%); (5) the reflected short‐wave radiation at the water surface was calculated on average as 3·2%, which is consistent with literature values. Results of this study contribute towards a better understanding of river heat fluxes and water temperature models as well as for more effective aquatic resources and fisheries management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of non-parametric and parametric water temperature models on the Nivelle River,France

Abstract

Water temperature is an important abiotic variable in aquatic habitat studies and may be one of the factors limiting the potential fish habitat (e.g. salmonids) in a stream. Stream water temperatures are modelled using statistical approaches with air temperature and streamflow as exogenous variables in the Nivelle River, southern France. Two different models are used to model mean weekly maximum temperature data: a non-parametric approach, the k-nearest neighbours method (k-NN) and a parametric approach, the periodic autoregressive model with exogenous variables (PARX). The k-NN is a data-driven method, which consists of finding, at each point of interest, a small number of neighbours nearest to this value, and the prediction is estimated based on these neighbours. The PARX model is an extension of commonly-used autoregressive models in which parameters are estimated for each period within the years. Different variants of air temperature and flow are used in the model development. In order to test the performance of these models, a jack-knife technique is used, whereby model goodness of fit is assessed separately for each year. The results indicate that both models give good performances, but the PARX model should be preferred, because of its good estimation of the individual weekly temperatures and its ability to explicitly predict water temperature using exogenous variables.     

Intra‐annual variability in the non‐advective heat energy budget of Devon streams and rivers

The nature of intra‐annual variability in the non‐advective heat fluxes affecting streams and rivers in Devon, UK was investigated through detailed monitoring of study reaches in an upland moorland catchment, below a regulating reservoir, and flowing through deciduous woodland and coniferous forest during the period May 1995 to April 1996. A clear pattern of seasonal variation was evident, whereby net radiation provided a heat source during the summer but a heat sink in the winter, as incoming short‐wave radiation declined and outgoing long‐wave radiation increased. Sensible transfer added heat to the study reaches in the summer but removed it during the winter, and bed conduction acted as a heat sink in the summer period but as a heat source in the winter months. Friction and evaporation added and removed heat, respectively, from the study reaches throughout the year, but the magnitude of these fluxes reflected seasonal variations in discharge and in wind speed. Water temperature generally followed the net non‐advective heat energy budget, which was positive in summer but negative in winter. Although a general pattern of seasonal variability in the non‐advective heat energy budget was evident, detailed differences in the nature and extent of intra‐annual variability were apparent between the study reaches and particularly between forested and non‐forested sites. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial variability in the timing,nature and extent of channel response to typical human disturbance along the Upper Hunter River,New South Wales,Australia

Prior to European settlement, the Upper Hunter River near Muswellbrook, New South Wales, was a passively meandering gravel‐bed river of moderate sinuosity and relatively uniform channel width. Analyses of floodplain sedimentology, archival records, parish maps and aerial photographs document marked spatial variability in the pattern of channel change since European settlement in the 1820s. Different types, rates and extents of change are reported for seven zones of adjustment along an 8 km study reach. This variable adjustment reflects imposed antecedent controls (buried terrace material and bedrock), which have significantly influenced local variability in river sensitivity to change, as well as contemporary morphodynamics and geomorphic complexity. Local variability in system responses to disturbance has important implications for future river management and rehabilitation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.