Hydrological impacts of climate change predicted for an inland lake catchment in Ontario by using monthly water balance analyses

Potential hydrological impacts of climate change on long‐term water balances were analysed for Harp Lake and its catchment. Harp Lake is located in the boreal ecozone of Ontario, Canada. Two climate change scenarios were used. One was based on extrapolation of long‐term trends of monthly temperature and precipitation from a 129‐year data record, and another was based on a Canadian general circulation model (GCM) predictions. A monthly water balance model was calibrated using 26 years of hydrological and meteorological data, and the model was used to calculate hydrological impact under two climate change scenarios. The first scenario with a warmer and wetter climate predicted a smaller magnitude of change than the second scenario. The first scenario showed an increase in evaporation each month, an increase in catchment runoff in summer, fall and winter, but a decrease in spring, resulting in a slight increase in lake level. Annual runoff and lake level would increase because the precipitation change overrides evaporation change. The second scenario with a warmer, drier climate predicted a greater change, and indicated that evaporation would increase each month, runoff would increase in many months, but would decrease in spring, causing the lake level to decrease slightly. Annual runoff and lake level would decrease because evaporation change overrides precipitation change. In both scenarios, the water balance changes in winter and spring are pronounced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of regional warming on long‐term hypolimnetic anoxia and dissolved oxygen concentration in a deep lake

Although few reports have described long‐term continuous anoxia in aquatic systems, Lake Ikeda in Japan experienced such conditions in the hypolimnion from 1990 to 2010. The present study aimed to assess temporal fluctuations in the lake's thermal stability from 1978 to 2011 to understand the influence of regional climate change on hypolimnetic anoxia in this lake. Because complete vertical mixing, which supplies dissolved oxygen (DO) to the hypolimnion, potentially occurs on February, we calculated the Schmidt stability index (S) in February and compared it with hypolimnetic DO dynamics. Vertical water temperature profiles were calculated using a one‐dimensional model, and calculated temperatures and meteorological data were used to analyse annual fluctuations in water temperatures, thermocline depth, meteorological variables and S. We estimated that mean annual air and volume‐weighted water temperatures increased by 0.028 and 0.033 °C year^?1, respectively, from 1978 to 2011. Between 1986 and 1990, S and water temperature increased abruptly, probably due to a large upwards trend in air temperature (+0.239 °C year^?1). We hypothesize that a mixing regime that lacked overturn took effect at this time and that this regime lasted until 2011, when S was particularly small. These results demonstrate that abrupt climate warming in the late 1980s likely triggered the termination of complete mixing and caused the 21‐year period of successive anoxia in Lake Ikeda. We conclude that the lake response to a rapid shift in regional climate conditions was a key factor in changing the hypolimnetic water environment and that thermal stability in winter is a critical environmental factor controlling the mixing regime and anoxic conditions in deep lakes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of the multiannual thermal dynamics of a deep pre‐alpine lake to climatic change

The study of the multiannual thermal dynamics of Lake Iseo, a deep lake in the Italian pre‐alpine area, is presented. Interflow was found to be the dominant river entrance mode, suggesting future susceptibility of the lake thermal structure to the overall effects of climate change expected in the upstream alpine watershed. A lake model employed the results of a long‐term hydrologic model to simulate the effects of a climate change scenario on the lake's thermal evolution for the period 2012–2050. The model predicts an overall average increase in the lake water temperature of 0.012 °C/year and a reinforced Schmidt thermal stability of the water column in the winter up to 800 J/m². Both these effects may further hinder the deep circulation process, which is vital for the oxygenation of deep water. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative contributions of stream concentration,stream discharge and shoreline load to base cation trends in Red Chalk and Harp lakes,south‐central Ontario,Canada

We evaluated the importance and contributions of changes in stream base cation concentration, stream discharge and lake shoreline load to changes in base cation concentrations in two small inland lakes in south‐central Ontario. The shoreline load from ungauged drainage areas was calculated with a mass balance equation. An evaluation method based on the partial Mann–Kendall test quantified the relative contributions of these three explanatory drivers to the observed trends in lake concentration of Ca, K, Mg and Na. Over a 29‐year period (1978–2006) at Red Chalk and Harp lakes, declines in stream concentration and discharge were correlated with the declines in lake concentrations of all base cations (except for Na in Harp Lake), with contributions of 21–81% from stream concentration and 12–58% from discharge, whereas the shoreline load had little contribution to observed trends. The observed unusual increase in Na concentration at Harp Lake was correlated with the increase in stream Na concentration and additional load from road salts, with the shoreline load contributing a substantial 37%. These results may be applicable to numerous inland lakes with similar site conditions, including lakes found on the Canadian Shield. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating water temperatures and stratification of a pre‐alpine lake with a hydrodynamic model: calibration and sensitivity analysis of climatic input parameters

We report on the calibration of the one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model to simulate the water temperature conditions of the pre‐alpine Lake Ammersee (southeast Germany) that is a representative of deep and large lakes in this region. Special focus is given to the calibration in order to reproduce the correct thermal distribution and stratification including the time of onset and duration of summer stratification. To ensure the application of the model to investigate the impact of climate change on lakes, an analysis of the model sensitivity under stepwise modification of meteorological input parameters (air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, global radiation, cloud cover, vapour pressure and tributary water temperature) was conducted. The total mean error of the calibration results is ?0.23 °C, the root mean square error amounts to 1.012 °C. All characteristics of the annual stratification cycle were reproduced accurately by the model. Additionally, the simulated deviations for all applied modifications of the input parameters for the sensitivity analysis can be differentiated in the high temporal resolution of monthly values for each specific depth. The smallest applied alteration to each modified input parameter caused a maximum deviation in the simulation results of at least 0.26 °C. The most sensitive reactions of the model can be observed through modifications of the input parameters air temperature and wind speed. Hence, the results show that further investigations at Lake Ammersee, such as coupling the hydrodynamic model with chemo‐dynamic models to assess the impact of changing climate on biochemical conditions within lakes, can be carried out using Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青藏高原拉昂错热力分层和混合层深度变化特征观测

湖泊热力结构不仅影响湖泊内部生态环境,而且与区域气象和气候系统相互影响,但目前对湖泊垂直温度的观测研究仍非常匮乏.本研究基于青藏高原拉昂错连续的湖温和气象观测,分析了小时尺度和日尺度热力分层规律和混合层深度的变化特征.结果表明:拉昂错为冷多次完全混合型湖泊;湖表温度8月达到最大值,湖面敞水区和沿岸的湖表温度季节震荡相同...     

Effects of changing climate on ice cover in three morphometrically different lakes

A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM‐WQ‐I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice‐on, ice‐off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice‐on dates and earlier ice‐off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of ?10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes.     

全球变化下青藏高原湖泊在地表水循环中的作用

青藏高原是地球上最重要的高海拔地区之一,对全球变化具有敏感响应.青藏高原作为"亚洲水塔",其地表水资源及其变化对高原本身及周边地区的经济社会发展具有重要的影响.然而,在气候变暖的情况下,构成高原地表水资源的各个组分,如冰川、湖泊、河流、降水等水体的相变及其转化却鲜为人知.湖泊是青藏高原地表水体相变和水循环的关键环节.湖泊面积、水位和水量对西风和印度季风的降水变化非常敏感,但湖泊面积和水量变化在不同区域和时段的响应也不尽相同.湖泊水温对气候变暖具有明显响应,湖泊水温和水下温跃层深度的变化能够对水—气的热量交换具有明显影响,从而影响了区域蒸发和降水等水循环过程.由于湖泊水量增加,高原中部色林错地区湖泊盐度自1970s以来普遍下降.根据60多个湖泊实地监测建立的遥感反演模型研究发现,2000—2019年湖泊透明度普遍升高.对不同补给类型的大湖水量平衡监测发现,影响湖泊变化的气象和水文要素具有较大差异.在目前的暖湿气候条件下,青藏高原的湖泊将会持续扩张.为了深入认识湖泊变化在青藏高原区域水循环和气候变化中的作用,需要全面了解湖泊水量赋存及连续的时间序列变化,需要深入了解湖泊理化参数变化及对湖泊大气之间热量交换的影响,需要更多来自大湖流域的综合连续观测数据.     

Sensitivity of physical lake processes to climate change within a large Precambrian Shield catchment

Potential future changes in lake physical processes (e.g. stratification and freezing) can be assessed through exploring their sensitivity to climate change, and assessing the current vulnerability of different lake types to plausible changes in meteorological drivers. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change and sensitivity of lake physical processes within a large (5100 km²) Precambrian Shield catchment in south‐central Ontario. Historic regional relationships are established between climate drivers, lake morphology, and lake physical changes through generalized linear modelling (GLM), and are used to quantify likely changes in timing of ice phenology and lake stratification across 72 lakes under a range of future climate models and scenarios. In response to projections of increased temperature (ensemble mean of +3.3 °C), both earlier ice‐off and onset of summer stratification were projected, with later ice‐on and fall turnover compared to the baseline. Process sensitivity to climate change varied by lake type; shallower lakes with a smaller volume (less than 15 m deep and less than 0.05 km³) were more sensitive to processes associated with lake heating (stratification onset and ice‐off), and deeper lakes with a larger surface area (greater than 30 m deep and greater than 1000 ha) were more sensitive to processes associated with lake cooling (fall turnover and ice‐on). These results indicate that whereas small lakes are vulnerable to climate warming because of changes that occur in spring and summer, larger lakes are particularly sensitive during the fall. The findings suggest that lake morphology and associated sensitivity should be considered in the development of sustainable lake management strategies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

西藏扎布耶盐湖水位Winters和ARIMA模型分析

由于温室效应,气温加速上升,我国西部干旱一半干旱盐湖区盐湖水位出现加速下降或上升等变化．藏北高原湖泊众多,但都缺少湖水位的人工观测记录．中国地质科学院盐湖中心自1990年始在西藏扎布耶盐湖建立了长期科学观测站,进行水位动态观测,积累了连续13年珍贵的数据．如何根据湖泊水位历史记录数据,准确的定量预测水位中短期变化,是关系着盐湖资源开发命运的大事．本文用Winters线性和季节性指数平滑法、ARIMA乘积季节模型两种时间序列分析方法,根据西藏扎布耶盐湖1991年1月-2003年12月水位变化的时间序列数据,探讨了两种时间序列数据的预测方法在盐湖水位动态变化预测中的应用．     

Environmental isotope study on hydrodynamics of Lake Naini,Uttar Pradesh,India

Environmental isotopes (δ¹⁸O, δD and ³H) were used to understand the hydrodynamics of Lake Naini in the State of Uttar Pradesh, India. The data was correlated with the in situ physico‐chemical parameters, namely temperature, electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen. The analysis of the data shows that Lake Naini is a warm monomictic lake [i.e. in a year, the lake is stratified during the summer months (March/April to October/November) and well mixed during the remaining months]. The presence of a centrally submerged ridge inhibits the mixing of deeper waters of the lake's two sub‐basins, and they exhibit differential behaviour. The rates of change of isotopic composition of hypolimnion and epilimnion waters of the lake indicate that the water retention time of the lake is very short, and the two have independent inflow components. A few groundwater inflow points to the lake are inferred along the existing fractures, fault planes and dykes. In addition to poor vertical mixing of the lake due to the temperature‐induced seasonal stratification, the lake also shows poor horizontal mixing at certain locations of the lake. The lake–groundwater system appears to be a flow‐through type. Also, a tritium and water‐balance model was developed to estimate the water retention time of well‐mixed and hydrologically steady state lakes. The model assumes a piston flow of groundwater contributing to the lake. The developed model was verified for (a) Finger Lakes, New York; (b) Lake Neusiedlersee, Austria; and (c) Blue Lake, Australia based on literature data. The predicted water retention times of the lakes were close to those reported or calculated from the hydrological parameters given in the references. On application of this model to Lake Naini, a water retention time of ～2 years and age of groundwater contributing to the lake ～14 years is obtained. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal and spatial pattern of thermokarst lake area changes at Yukon Flats,Alaska

To better understand the linkage between lake area change, permafrost conditions and intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability in climate, we explored the temporal and spatial patterns of lake area changes for a 422 382‐ha study area within Yukon Flats, Alaska using Landsat images of 17 dates between 1984 and 2009. Only closed basin lakes were used in this study. Among the 3529 lakes greater than 1 ha, closed basin lakes accounted for 65% by number and 50% by area. A multiple linear regression model was built to quantify the temporal change in total lake area with consideration of its intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability. The results showed that 80.7% of lake area variability was attributed to intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability in local water balance and mean temperature since snowmelt (interpreted as a proxy for seasonal thaw depth). Another 14.3% was associated with long‐term change. Among 2280 lakes, 350 lakes shrank, and 103 lakes expanded. The lakes with similar change trends formed distinct clusters, so did the lakes with similar short term intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability. By analysing potential factors driving lake area changes including evaporation, precipitation, indicators for regional permafrost change, and flooding, we found that ice‐jam flooding events were the most likely explanation for the observed temporal pattern. In addition to changes in the frequency of ice jam flooding events, the observed changes of individual lakes may be influenced by local variability in permafrost distributions and/or degradation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近40年洞庭湖区内湖水面面积变化及其驱动因素

选择1979-2016年间多时期、多类型、多光谱遥感数据,分析评价洞庭湖区内湖近40年的面积变化.结果表明,最近40年洞庭湖区内湖面积保持相对稳定,丰水期间呈上升趋势,枯水期间波动下降,2016年内湖总面积比1980s初减少3.94%.随着湖泊面积增加,湖泊水面面积变化的比例和幅度逐渐减小,大型湖泊（>10 km²）和中型湖泊（5~10 km²）面积相对稳定,小型内湖（<5 km²）面积变化尤为剧烈.内湖水面面积主要受降雨、蒸发等气候因素和生产生活取水、防洪排涝和退田还湖等人为活动调控.1980-2000年和2001-2015年两个时期,洞庭湖区多年平均降雨量呈现不同程度的下降趋势,多年平均蒸发量明显上升.三峡工程运行后,三口分流衰减,但水资源需求量不断增长,退田还湖和留蓄雨洪作为水资源使得丰水期间内湖水面面积增长,气候变化和水资源开发利用导致枯水期水面面积趋于减少.有必要加强洞庭湖区内湖的研究和保护,适当退田还湖提高湖泊率,优化三口水系格局,实施河湖水系连通工程,缓解洞庭湖区季节性水资源紧张问题.     

青海湖热力状况的模拟与未来情景之研究

运用基于湖泊热量收支与湍流扩散的湖泊热力学模型模拟了青海湖近３０年来湖水热力状况,内容包括湖泊水面温度,温度沿深度的垂直分布,冬季结冰与融冰的起迄时间,冰盖厚度;积雪深度与天数等。在此基础上,运用４个ＧＣＭｓ模型输出的ＣＯ２倍增情景下该地区的气候状况,评价了湖泊热力状况在未来的可能变化情况。     

Quantitative comparison of river inflows to a rapidly expanding lake in central Tibetan Plateau

The recent rapid expansion of inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are a good indicator of the consequences of climate change. Quantifying the hydrological cycle of the lake basin is fundamentally important to understand the causes of lake growth. However, the hydrological processes of the TP interior are very complex and difficult to investigate because of the lack of observations. This is especially true for estimating the lake changes when run‐off inflows are affected by small lakes located in the flow routes within drainage areas. We used an integrated hydrological model, in combination with glacier melt and lake retention models, to analyse the run‐off inflows to Lake Siling Co, the largest endorheic lake in Tibet. It includes four subdrainage basins: Zhajiazangbu, Zhagenzangbu, Alizangbu, and Boquzangbu. Lake Siling Co was characterized by considerable increases during warm season from 1981 to 2012, due to the increased run‐off from Zhajiazangbu accounting for about 51–62% of the total run‐off inflows. Moreover, the dramatic increases exhibited during cold seasons were related to the increased retention water released from the small lakes within Zhagenzangbu and Alizangbu. Of the studied subdrainage basins, Boquzangbu contributed the least during both warm and cold seasons. On average, the annual amount of evaporation from lakes within the drainage area was about 2 times greater than that of glacier melt run‐off. Our results suggest that the retention effects of lakes on river inflows should receive more attention, because understanding these effects is potentially crucial to improved understanding of lake variations in the TP.     

基于星载被动微波遥感的青藏高原湖冰物候监测方法

湖冰物候影响着区域及全球气候,是全球变化的敏感因子,青藏高原湖泊众多,冻融现场监测数据缺乏,而微波具有对冰水相变敏感、时间分辨率高、历史存档数据长等特点,这对于长时间序列湖冰物候研究具有重要意义.然而,被动微波遥感空间分辨率低、湖泊亮温的精准定位难.论文通过获取AMSR-E/Aqua和AMSR-2/Gcom-W1的亮温数据,构建了基于轨道亮温数据的阈值判别法,通过对青藏高原不同区域和不同大小的青海湖、色林错、哈拉湖以及阿其克库勒湖进行测试研究:与青海湖现场观测对比,湖泊完全冻结日期与开始融化日期最大误差小于3天;与无云光学遥感判别结果相比,4个湖泊的冻融参数误差为2~4天.结果表明,被动微波轨道亮温数据可实现青藏高原地区亚像元级中大型湖泊冻融信息的获取,历史卫星资料可为湖冰物候的监测提供重要的支撑.     

Effects of rainfall on thermal stratification and dissolved oxygen in a deep drinking water reservoir

Thermal stratification is crucial for water quality and ecological processes in deep lakes and reservoirs and can be substantially affected by meteorological and hydrological processes in the catchment. However, how thermal stratification responds to rainfalls of different intensities and changing hydrological processes has not been documented very well. Here, high frequency water column profiles at three stations in a large subtropical deep reservoir (Lake Qiandaohu, China) in 2017 were used to elucidate the impacts of rainfall on lake physical process and chemical environment. The impact of rainfalls on the thermal stratification and dissolved oxygen in riverine zone was more impressive than that in transitional and lacustrine zones. The effect on thermal stratification by rainfall was largely affected by the magnitude of rainfall. Moderate and heavy rainfall events could reduce the thermal stability of water column, deepen the mixing layer depth, and shape the thermocline, resulting from decrease of surface water temperature and increased inflows. While rainstorms could totally break up thermoclines in the riverine zone by high volume inflow flushing. In addition, we found that the hypoxia and anoxia initial depths increased during rainfall events in this reservoir, which were well related to the changes of mixing layer depths. This research highlights that quantifying the effects of rainfalls on thermal stratification and dissolved oxygen will be beneficial for optimizing reservoir management.     

21世纪以来泛北极湖泊水位变化时空特征及原因探讨

在全球气候变暖和极端气候事件增加的背景下,流域水文循环过程受到的影响越来越强烈,导致湖泊水位变化表现出复杂的时空特征。而泛北极地区是地球上湖泊数量与面积分布最为集中的区域之一,该地区湖泊对气候变化响应非常敏感。因此,了解这些湖泊近期水文变化特征十分必要。本研究共搜集了36个泛北极大型湖泊(>500 km²)基于遥感或站点观测的近20年水位数据,分析其时空变化特征。本文使用线性回归模型来估算湖泊水位的变化趋势,进而利用皮尔逊相关分析了其主要水文影响变量和大气环流机制,并运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法探讨了水位突变的原因。结果表明,泛北极湖泊的水位整体上呈现不同程度上升(平均速率为0.013 m/a),有23个(64%)湖泊的水位呈上升趋势;研究湖泊中有10个通过90%统计显著性检验。其中,水位上升速率最大的湖泊是位于哈萨克斯坦的腾吉兹湖,上升速率为0.078 m/a。泛北极湖泊水位的波动主要与径流有关,有19个(53%)湖泊的水位波动与径流的增加更为相关;相比而言,位于亚洲的极地湖泊水位的上升与流域蒸发的降低显著相关,尤其是库苏古尔湖。从区域大气环流影响来看,泛北极湖泊水位变化主要与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动有关,其次是北极涛动和北大西洋涛动。本研究有助于加深对泛北极湖泊近20年水位变化规律及气候影响特征的科学理解。     

Late‐summer thermal regime of a small proglacial lake

This study was motivated by an interest in understanding the potential effects of climate change and glacier retreat on late summer water temperatures in alpine areas. Fieldwork was carried out between July and September 2007 at Place Lake, located below Place Glacier in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia. Place Lake has an area of 72 000 m², a single inlet and outlet channel, and an approximate residence time of 4 days. Warming between the inlet and outlet of the lake ranged up to 3 °C and averaged 1.8 °C, which exceeds the amount of warming that occurred over the 1 km reach of Place Creek between the lake outlet and tree line. Over a 23‐day period, net radiation totalled about 210 MJ·m^–2, with sensible heat flux adding another 56 MJ m^‐2. The latent heat flux consumed about 8% of the surface heat input. The dominant heat sink was the net horizontal advection associated with lake inflow and outflow. Early in the study period, temperatures between the surface and 6‐m depth were dominantly at or above 4 °C and were generally neutral to thermally stable, whereas temperatures decreased with depth below 6 m and exhibited irregular sub‐diurnal variations. The maximum outflow temperature of almost 7 °C occurred in this period. We hypothesize that turbidity currents associated with cold, sediment‐laden glacier discharge formed an underflow and influenced temperatures in the deeper portion of the lake but did not mix with the upper layers. Later in the study period, the lake was dominantly well mixed with some near‐surface stability associated with nocturnal cooling. Further research is required to examine the combined effects of sediment concentrations and thermal processes on mixing in small proglacial lakes to make projections of the consequences of glacier retreat on alpine lake and stream temperatures. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1976-2015年柴达木盆地湖泊演变及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应

柴达木盆地众多的湖泊不仅对维持当地脆弱的生态环境具有极其重要的作用,而且中心盐湖也是重要的矿产资源.进入21世纪以来,受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,盆地湖泊发生了一系列重大变化.为科学认识这一问题,选取了1976-2015年6期Landsat系列卫星影像,解译了该区域1 km²以上的湖泊水面,并分析了湖泊变化对气候和人类活动的响应.结果表明：柴达木盆地湖泊面积总体上存在扩张（1976-1990年）萎缩（1990-2000年）扩张（2000-2010年）萎缩（2010-2015年）4个阶段的变化过程,2010年湖泊面积最大,2015年湖泊又明显萎缩.就气候水文因素而言,湖泊面积变化主要受山区降水径流的影响.湖面变化与前3 a的降水径流关系最为密切.进入21世纪以来,气候变化与上游社会经济耗水、盐湖周边人为阻隔河湖连通、开采卤水、修建人工盐田、排放老卤等人类活动,对盆地中心湖泊的空间格局、面积都产生了显著影响,苦水沟、达布逊湖南部形成了新湖泊,鸦湖、团结湖面积显著扩大,东、西台吉乃尔湖逐渐萎缩、干涸,一里平湖由以前的干盐湖在2010年一跃成为盆地最大的湖泊.针对盐湖大规模开发产生的负面影响,提出了合理开发盐湖资源的建议.