Delineation of riparian vegetation from Landsat multi‐temporal imagery using PCA

A deficiency in crucial digital data, such as vegetation cover, in remote regions is a challenging issue for water management and planning, especially for areas undergoing rapid development, such as mining in the Pilbara, Western Australia. This is particularly relevant to riparian vegetation, which provides important ecological services and, as such, requires regional protection. The objective of this research was to develop an approach to riparian vegetation mapping at a regional scale using remotely sensed data. The proposed method was based on principal component analysis applied to multi‐temporal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index datasets derived from Landsat TM 5 imagery. To delimit the spatial extent of riparian vegetation, a thresholding method was required and various thresholding algorithms were tested. The accuracy of results was estimated for various Normalized Difference Vegetation Index multi‐temporal datasets using available ground‐truth data. The combination of a 14‐dry‐date dataset and Kittler's thresholding method provided the most accurate delineation of riparian vegetation.     

Mapping Potential Groundwater‐Dependent Ecosystems for Sustainable Management

Ecosystems which rely on either the surface expression or subsurface presence of groundwater are known as groundwater‐dependent ecosystems (GDEs). A comprehensive inventory of GDE locations at an appropriate management scale is a necessary first‐step for sustainable management of supporting aquifers; however, this information is unavailable for most areas of concern. To address this gap, this study created a two‐step algorithm which analyzed existing geospatial and remote sensing data to identify potential GDEs at both state/province and aquifer/basin scales. At the state/province scale, a geospatial information system (GIS) database was constructed for Texas, including climate, topography, hydrology, and ecology data. From these data, a GDE index was calculated, which combined vegetative and hydrological indicators. The results indicated that central Texas, particularly the Edwards Aquifer region, had highest potential to host GDEs. Next, an aquifer/basin scale remote sensing‐based algorithm was created to provide more detailed maps of GDEs in the Edwards Aquifer region. This algorithm used Landsat ETM+ and MODIS images to track the changes of NDVI for each vegetation pixel. The NDVI dynamics were used to identify the vegetation with high potential to use groundwater—such plants remain high NDVI during extended dry periods and also exhibit low seasonal and inter‐annual NDVI changes between dry and wet seasons/years. The results indicated that 8% of natural vegetation was very likely using groundwater. Of the potential GDEs identified, 75% were located on shallow soil averaging 45 cm in depth. The dominant GDE species were live oak, ashe juniper, and mesquite.     

Large‐scale regional delineation of riparian vegetation in the arid and semi‐arid Pilbara region,WA

Multiscene Landsat 5 TM imagery, Principal Component Analysis, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index were used to produce the first region‐scale map of riparian vegetation for the Pilbara (230,000 km²), Western Australia. Riparian vegetation is an environmentally important habitat in the arid and desert climate of the Pilbara. These habitats are supported by infrequent flow events and in some locations by groundwater discharge. Our analysis suggests that riparian vegetation covers less than 4% of the Pilbara region, whereas almost 10.5% of this area is composed of groundwater dependent vegetation (GDV). GDV is often associated with open water (river pools), providing refugia for a variety of species. GDV has an extremely high ecological value and are often important Indigenous sites. This paper demonstrates how Landsat data calibrated to Top of Atmosphere reflectance can be used to delineate riparian vegetation across 16 Landsat scenes and two Universal Transverse Mercator spatial zones. The proposed method is able to delineate riparian vegetation and GDV, without the need for Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function correction. Results were validated using ground truth data from local and regional scale vegetation surveys.     

A Global Synthesis of Managing Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems Under Sustainable Groundwater Policy

Groundwater is a vital water supply worldwide for people and nature. However, species and ecosystems that depend on groundwater for some or all of their water needs, known as groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs), are increasingly becoming threatened worldwide due to growing human water demands. Over the past two decades, the protection and management of GDEs have been incorporated into several water management policy initiatives worldwide including jurisdictions within Australia, the European Union, South Africa, and the United States. Among these, Australia has implemented the most comprehensive framework to manage and protect GDEs through its water policy initiatives. Using a science‐based approach, Australia has made good progress at reducing uncertainty when selecting management thresholds for GDEs in their water management plans. This has been achieved by incorporating appropriate metrics for GDEs into water monitoring programs so that information gathered over time can inform management decisions. This adaptive management approach is also accompanied by the application of the “Precautionary Principle” in cases where insufficient information on GDEs exist. Additionally, the integration of risk assessment into Australia's approach has enabled water managers to prioritize the most valuable and vulnerable ecologic assets necessary to manage GDEs under Australia's national sustainable water management legislation. The purpose of this paper is to: (1) compare existing global policy initiatives for the protection and management of GDEs; (2) synthesize Australia's adaptive management approach of GDEs in their state water plans; and (3) highlight opportunities and challenges of applying Australia's approach for managing GDEs under other water management policies worldwide.     

Towards monitoring groundwater‐dependent ecosystems using synthetic aperture radar imagery

Mapping of groundwater‐dependent ecosystems (GDEs) relies largely on assumption‐laden evaporation models, and few global, direct, and real‐time monitoring techniques exist. We propose a new synthetic aperture radar imagery‐derived index, SARGDE, to identify and monitor these ecosystems across Australia. The index captures vegetation reliance on groundwater during dry periods by estimating the relative stability of foliage and branch structure from the vertical/horizontal cross‐polarized band and InSAR coherence. SARGDE is tested over two contrasting study sites in Australia. To build and verify the index, a total of 90 Sentinel‐1 interferometric wide images are processed and stacked in two data‐cubes. GDE response to the SAR signal is explored using a non‐linear dimension reduction algorithm. Relevant statistical parameters are derived from data‐cubes and combined to form the index. As the index relies on a 1‐year time series of globally, freely available, and cloud‐insensitive SAR imagery, SARGDE offers unprecedented capabilities for large‐scale, annual monitoring of GDEs. Such monitoring will aid reconciliation of human and ecosystem groundwater needs by acting as a systematic monitoring tool, helping policy makers to assure ecosystem sustainability where impacts related to mining, agriculture, or climate change may occur.     

基于遥感特征指数的地表水体自动提取技术研究

为了从海量遥感数据中有效地提取地表水体信息,并提高自动化提取效率,提出了一种基于遥感特征指数的地表水体自动提取方法.该方法选取归一化植被指数(NDVI)、归一化建筑指数(NDBI)和修正归一化水体指数(MNDWI)作为遥感特征指数集,并根据这些指数构建了遥感特征指数曲线.通过分析,发现地表水体在特征曲线中单调上升,植被在特征曲线中单调下降,而其它地物并无此特征.因此,根据这一规律,利用ERDAS IMAGINE软件建立了自动化提取模型.通过与其他方法对比,表明所建立的模型在精度和自动化方面都明显优于其他方法,可用于海量数据地表水体的自动提取.最后,在ARCGIS环境下,并通过决策树模型初步实现了地表水体的自动分类.     

Projected risks to groundwater‐dependent terrestrial vegetation caused by changing climate and groundwater abstraction in the Central Perth Basin,Western Australia

The effect of potential climate change on groundwater‐dependent vegetation largely depends on the nature of the climate change (drying or wetting) and the level of current ecosystem dependence on groundwater resources. In south‐western Australia, climate projections suggest a high likelihood of a warmer and drier climate. The paper examines the potential environmental impacts by 2030 at the regional scale on groundwater‐dependent terrestrial vegetation (GDTV) adapted to various watertable depths, on the basis of the combined consideration of groundwater modelling results and the framework for GDTV risk assessment. The methodology was tested for the historical period from 1984 to 2007, allowing validation of the groundwater model results' applicability to such an assessment. Climate change effects on GDTV were evaluated using nine global climate models under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios by applying the climate projections to groundwater models. It was estimated that under dry climate scenarios, GDTV is likely to be under high and severe risk over more than 20% of its current habitat area. The risk is also likely to be higher under an increase in groundwater abstraction above current volumes. The significance of climate change risk varied across the region, depending on both the intensity of the change in water regime and the sensitivity of the GDTV to such change. Greater effects were projected for terrestrial vegetation dependent on deeper groundwater (6–10 m). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater recharge and discharge in a hyperarid alluvial plain (Akesu,Taklimakan Desert,China)

Groundwater recharge and discharge in the Akesu alluvial plain were estimated using a water balance method. The Akesu alluvial plain (4842 km²) is an oasis located in the hyperarid Tarim River basin of central Asia. The land along the Akesu River has a long history of agricultural development and the irrigation area is highly dependent on water withdrawals from the river. We present a water balance methodology to describe (a) surface water and groundwater interaction and (b) groundwater interaction between irrigated and non‐irrigated areas. Groundwater is recharged from the irrigation system and discharged in the non‐irrigated area. Uncultivated vegetation and wetlands are supplied from groundwater in the hyperarid environment. Results show that about 90% of groundwater recharge came from canal loss and field infiltration. The groundwater flow from irrigated to non‐irrigated areas was about 70% of non‐irrigated area recharge and acted as subsurface drainage for the irrigation area. This desalinated the irrigation area and supplied water to the non‐irrigated area. Salt moved to the non‐irrigation area following subsurface drainage. We conclude that the flooding of the Akesu River is a supplemental groundwater replenishment mechanism: the river desalinates the alluvial plain by recharging fresh water in summer and draining saline regeneration water in winter. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term Holocene groundwater fluctuations in a chalk catchment: evidence from Rock‐Eval pyrolysis of riparian peats

The depositional history of peat‐dominated wetlands can be used to understand palaeoclimate and palaeohydrology and also constrain the impacts of future climate change. However, in chalkland valleys, seasonal water table fluctuations and a high alkalinity have diminished key environment indicators such as pollen, and there is a need for alternative investigative techniques. The method of Rock‐Eval pyrolysis can track changes in organic matter source and degradation, potentially relating to historic changes in vegetation cover. This is the first Rock‐Eval on cores from a groundwater‐dependent riparian chalk valley wetland combined with radiocarbon dating. The dating showed that the cores represented approximately 4000 years of depositional history. Changes in hydrocarbon chemistry including normal alkane composition of the peat indicated shifts of around 500 to 1000 years between terrestrial and more aquatic species, relating to periods of climate wetness. These climatic shifts are broadly consistent with other evidence from ombrotrophic peatland and lacustrine sediments across northwest Europe. However, the connection between climate wetness and groundwater dependent chalkland wetlands is complicated by external anthropogenically driven factors relating to land use and vegetation cover changes in the catchment. Nonetheless, this study suggests that Rock‐Eval pyrolysis is a useful and cost‐effective tool that can provide evidence for long‐term Holocene groundwater fluctuations. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey.     

Hydrogeologic controls on peatland development in the Malloryville Wetland, New York (USA)

The Malloryville Wetland Complex, a small kettle-hole peatland, contains a diversity of peatland types. The wetland has a ‘rich’ side that contains wetland vegetation associated with solute-rich, near-neutral pH (minerotrophic) water, and a ‘poor’ side containing vegetation that grows in solute-poor and acidic (ombrotrophic) water. Vertical head gradients at piezometer clusters located in the rich side clearly show that groundwater is moving upwards towards the land surface, consistent with the vegetation types and surface water quality. In contrast, vertical head gradients also show that groundwater is moving upward in the poor side even though the vegetation and surface water chemistry are not minerotrophic. An incipient raised bog in the center of the poor side is the only site where groundwater moves consistently downward.

A peat core collected at the bog center shows that the bog site was initially covered by minerotrophic vegetation, typically found in groundwater discharge zones, which was later replaced by ombrotrophic bog vegetation. Theoretical computer simulation experiments of the bog hydrogeologic setting through time suggest that the direction of vertical groundwater flow at the bog site permanently changed from up to down when a water table mound developed under a convex-shaped fen peat mound that probably formed because of differential peat accumulation. Ombrotrophic conditions and bog vegetation probably began when the fen water table mound grew sufficiently large enough to divert the upward movement of regional groundwater. The transition from rich to poor environments probably occurred when the wetland water table was substantially below the elevation of the surrounding regional water table.     

基于随机森林模型的GRACE数据3种空间降尺度对比

陆地水储量是赋存在陆地上各种形式水的综合体现,研究其时空变化对认识区域水循环过程和水资源调控等具有重要意义。然而现有陆地水储量变化数据实际分辨率较低,限制了其在中小流域或地区中的应用。针对这一问题,本文基于GRACE重力卫星和其后续卫星GRACE-FO反演的陆地水储量变化数据,首先采用随机森林模型,分别基于格点、区域(流域)和区域(全国)3种空间降尺度思路将GRACE数据降尺度至0.25°×0.25°,后结合GLDAS模型数据,基于水量平衡原理计算得到地下水储量变化数据,最后基于降尺度模型模拟效果和实测地下水位数据评估3种降尺度思路在全国的适用性。结果表明:随机森林模型能够较好地模拟驱动数据(降水、气温、植被条件指数和土壤水储量)与GRACE数据的统计关系,验证期格点降尺度思路的平均相关系数总体在0.6左右,区域降尺度思路的平均纳什效率系数、相关系数和均方根误差分别>0.5、>0.75和<6.6 cm,3种空间降尺度思路的模拟精度均满足基本要求;2003—2021年间,GRACE数据、格点降尺度、区域降尺度(流域)和区域降尺度(全国)得到的我国陆地水储量亏缺量分别约为...     

Transpiration in Quercus suber trees under shallow water table conditions: the role of soil and groundwater

Water is one of the major environmental factors limiting plant growth and survival in the Mediterranean region. Quercus suber L. woodlands occupy vast areas in the Iberian Peninsula, frequently under shallow water table conditions. The relative magnitude of soil and groundwater uptake to supply transpiration is not easy to evaluate under these circumstances. We recently developed a conceptual framework for the functioning of the root system in Q. suber that simulates well tree transpiration, based on two types of root behaviour: shallow connected and deep connected. Although this significantly improved knowledge on the functional traits of Mediterranean Q. suber, the approach has the limitation of requiring root sap flow data, which are seldom available. In this work, we present alternative methodologies to assess if trees are connected to groundwater and to estimate the soil and groundwater contributions to tree transpiration. We provide evidence on the tree unrestricted access to groundwater solely based on meteorological, stem sap flow and leaf water potential data. Using a soil mass balance approach, we estimated the yearly soil and groundwater contributions to tree transpiration: 69.7% and 30.3%, respectively. Groundwater uptake became dominant in the dry summer: 73.2% of tree transpiration. Results reproduce extremely well those derived from root modelling. Because of its simplicity both in formulation and data requirements, our approach is potentially liable to be adapted to other groundwater‐dependent Mediterranean oak sites, where interactions between land use and water resources may be relevant. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vegetation responses to integrated water management in the Ejina basin,northwest China

The Ejina basin, which is located in arid and semi‐arid areas of northwest China, has experienced severe environmental deterioration in the past several decades, and an exploratory project was launched by the Chinese Government in 2001 to restore this degraded ecosystem. In this study, multi‐scale remotely sensed data and field investigations were used to quantify the responses of vegetation to the implementation of integrated water management under this project. In terms of the seasonal accumulated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (SAN) variation, (1) the vegetation in 80·4% of the oasis regions showed an increasing or recovering trend, and increasing SAN trends with a magnitude greater than 0·14 a^?1 mainly resulted from cultivated land reclamation; (2) the vegetation in 91·5% of the desert regions presented an increasing trend, and the statistically significant trends mainly appeared in the middle and lower Ejina basin; (3) the vegetation in 19·6% of oasis and 5·1% of desert regions showed a decreasing or degrading trend, mainly where rivers diminished and along artificial concrete canals; and (4) opposite signs of vegetation trends occurred simultaneously along some natural rivers experiencing water reduction, with a decreasing trend generally appearing in the high SAN regions, whereas an increasing trend was seen in the low SAN regions. The broad vegetation recovery observed was due to the comprehensive improvement of the water environment, which was attributed to both the increase in runoff entering the Ejina basin and the adoption of engineering measures. Vegetation degradation in the area mainly resulted from deterioration of the local water environment, which was closely related to the problems of water management. The results of this study can be used as a reference for adjusting the current water resource management strategy to effectively restore this ecosystem. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cotton canopy reflectance under variable solar zenith angles: Implications of use in evapotranspiration models

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important parameter in hydrologic processes and modelling. In agricultural watersheds with competing uses of fresh water including irrigated agriculture, estimating crop evapotranspiration (ET_c) accurately is critical for improving irrigation system and basin water management. The use of remote sensing-based basal crop coefficients is becoming a common method for estimating crop evapotranspiration for multiple crops over large areas. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), based on reflectance in the red and near-infrared bands, are commonly used for this purpose. In this paper, we examine the effects of row crop orientation and soil background darkening due to shading and soil surface wetness on these two vegetation indices through modelling, coupled with a field experiment where canopy reflectance of a cotton crop at different solar zenith angles, was measured with a portable radiometer. The results show that the NDVI is significantly more affected than the SAVI by background shading and soil surface wetness, especially in north–south oriented rows at higher latitudes and could lead to a potential overestimation of crop evapotranspiration and irrigation water demand if used for basal crop coefficient estimation. Relationships between the analysed vegetation indices and canopy biophysical parameters such as crop height, fraction of cover and leaf area index also were developed for both indices.     

基于决策树的Landsat TM/ETM+图像中太湖蓝藻水华信息提取

以9期Landsat TM/ETM+影像为数据源,基于K-T变换和归一化植被指数(NDVI),建立了湖泊蓝藻水华信息提取的决策树模型.基于大气顶面反射率图像,选用2005年10月17日太湖图像进行了对比验证,表明决策树模型比单波段阈值法、多波段阈值法(RVI、DVI、NDVI)能够更有效地提取蓝藻水华信息,区分陆生植被、水生植物和水华,省去了水体掩膜的过程.使用太湖2002年10月25日和2011年7月22日图像、巢湖2005年8月12日的图像,验证决策树模型方法和工作流程的有效性.使用多期TM图像确定了阈值的取值范围,其中,亮度、绿度、NDVI的下限值依次为0.191、-0.007、-0.054,湿度下限范围为0.07~0.15;亮度阈值上限范围为0.3~0.7、绿度为0.2~0.5、湿度为0.1~0.3,这些结果可作为湖泊蓝藻水华遥感监测的参考.     

近30 a云贵高原湖泊表面水体面积变化遥感监测与时空分析

以云贵高原湖泊近30 a来的TM、ETM~+和OLI遥感影像为数据源,采用归一化水体指数(NDWI)、改进归一化水体指数(MNDWI)、新型水体指数(NWI)、增强型水体指数(EWI)和自动水体提取指数5种水体指数提取了1985—2015年云贵高原10个湖泊表面水体面积,并对各种算法进行精度对比分析.针对湖泊各自特点采用不同的水体指数提取其表面水体面积,并进行水体面积变化时空分析.结果表明:云贵高原湖泊表面水体面积总体呈现先增加后缩减趋势,1985—1995年湖泊表面水体面积增加了30.86 km~2,1995—2015年湖泊水体表面面积减少了48.12 km~2,其中,面积变化最大的是杞麓湖与异龙湖.对云贵高原湖泊表面水体面积变化与该区域的年降水量、蒸发量、平均气温、流域植被覆盖面积和人类活动时空进行相关分析,结果表明:1)高原湖泊对区域气候变化的响应具有明显的空间差异性,云贵高原湖泊的表面水体面积与气候相关性较显著,气温升高引起蒸发加速,降水量下降,湖面不断缩小,与逐年上升的气温呈负相关,与逐年波动上升的蒸发量呈负相关,与逐年减少的降水量呈正相关;2)云贵高原湖泊各流域的植被覆盖面积与湖泊面积变化相关性较弱;3)人类活动是影响湖泊面积变化的重要因素,大肆围湖造田、围湖养殖以及旅游开发等人类活动直接导致云贵高原湖泊面积的锐减,并对湖泊生态环境产生重要影响.     

On the relationship between historical land‐use change and water availability: the case of the lower Tarim River region in northwestern China

Natural ecosystems in the region of the lower Tarim River in northwestern China strongly deteriorated since the 1950s due to an expanding desertification. As a result, the downstream Tarim River reaches became permanently dry land. This historical evolution in land‐use change is typically the result of the anthropogenic impact on natural ecosystems. On the basis of a spatially distributed hydrological catchment model bidirectionally linked with a fully hydrodynamic MIKE11 river model, land‐use changes characterized by historical changes in leaf area index (LAI) of vegetation, as well as the evolution of irrigated surface areas, can be causally related to changes in water resources (groundwater storage and surface water resources). An increased surface area of irrigated (agricultural) land, together with a majority of inefficient irrigation methods, did lead to a strong increase of water resources consumption of the farmlands located in the upper Tarim River area. Evidently, this evolution influenced available water resources downstream in the Tarim basin. As a result, farmland has been gradually relocated to the upstream regions. This has led to reduced flows from the upper Tarim stream, which subsequently accelerated the dropping of the groundwater level downstream in the basin. This study moreover demonstrates that land surface biomass changes (cumulative LAI) along the lower Tarim River are strongly related to the changes in groundwater storage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of macrophyte communities in drought‐affected groundwater‐fed headwater streams

The results of a 10 year study of groundwater‐dominated streams in the chalklands of southern England show that macrophyte communities occupying the headwaters of such streams have a measurable variability in terms of species composition and spatial cover, especially in relation to river flow. This occurs as a result of species adaptation to typically ephemeral flow regimes. Associations have also been established between variations in the vegetation and hydroclimatic parameters at the catchment scale, such as rainfall, percolation and soil moisture conditions. This has led to the derivation of a system whereby the nature of headwater macrophyte communities can be forecast/hindcast, on the basis of parameterized, antecedent flow records, to a current accuracy level of 72% for any of 13 community types and 90% for any of four community groups. It is anticipated that this accuracy rate will improve with (i) an updated community classification, (ii) refinement of the parameterization procedures for flow records, and (iii) the extension of the method from the six study streams currently under scrutiny to a further 18 streams. Greater accuracy of prediction will be constrained by natural variation within the vegetation and the interaction of an array of geomorphological and land‐use variables operating at diverse spatial scales. The process used here to establish vegetation–flow relationships could be used in other locations with groundwater‐fed streams, providing a useful tool for assessing some of the impacts of bioclimatic changes driven by global warming. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying Threshold Water Tables for Ecological Restoration in Arid Northwestern China

In arid northwestern China, as many inland areas around the world with arid or semi-arid climate, inland river flow recharges groundwater; vegetation pattern depends on the water table, which characterizes the landscapes of oasis, transition zone and desert, within different distances from an inland river. The water table conditions play an important role in water and land management—a high water table causes salinization within the oasis while a low water table causes desertification around the oasis. This study applies a theoretical-empirical method to calculating critical groundwater depths including the depth of critical groundwater level causing salinization (DCGS) and the depth of critical groundwater level causing desertification (DCGD); the calculations are validated with field observations in the Luocheng Irrigation District located in the middle reach of the Heihe River, an inland river of the northwestern China. Specifically, the calculated DCGS is 1.29 m for the case study area and the range of water table depth at the locations with saline soil is 0.5-1.2 m. The calculated DCGD for three vegetation communities, Nitraria tangutorum + Glycyrrhiza uralensis Fisch community, Tamarix chinensis + Phragmites australis community, and Alhagi sparsifolia + Phragmites communis, are 8.26, 11.26, and 13.26 m, respectively, basically within an observed range of 6.0-13.0 m in the study area. The critical depths can be used to design an engineering approach to control water tables and mitigate salinization and desertification problem for ecosystem restoration in the study region.     

Modeling the impacts of drying trend scenarios on land systems in northern China using an integrated SD and CA model

Climate-induced drought has exerted obvious impacts on land systems in northern China. Although recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have suggested a high possibility of climate-induced drought in northern China, the potential impacts of such drying trends on land systems are still unclear. Land use models are powerful tools for assessing the impacts of future climate change. In this study, we first developed a land use scenario dynamic model (iLUSD) by integrating system dynamics and cellular automata. Then, we designed three drying trend scenarios (reversed drying trend, gradual drying trend, and acceleration of drying trend) for the next 25 years based on the IPCC emission scenarios and considering regional climatic predictions in northern China. Finally, the impacts of drying trend scenarios on the land system were simulated and compared. An accuracy assessment with historic data covering 2000 to 2005 indicated that the developed model is competent and reliable for understanding complex changes in the land use system. The results showed that water resources varied from 441.64 to 330.71 billion m³ among different drying trend scenarios, suggesting that future drying trends will have a significant influence on water resource and socioeconomic development. Under the pressures of climate change, water scarcity, and socioeconomic development, the ecotone (i.e., transition zone between cropping area and nomadic area) in northern China will become increasingly vulnerable and hotspots for land-use change. Urban land and grassland would have the most prominent response to the drying trends. Urban land will expand around major metropolitan areas and the conflict between urban and cultivated land will become more severe. The results also show that previous ecological control measures adopted by the government in these areas will play an important role in rehabilitating the environment. In order to achieve a sustainable development in northern China, issues need to be addressed such as how to arrange land use structure and patterns rationally, and how to adapt to the pressures of climate change and socioeconomic development together.