Using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis as weather input data for watershed models

Obtaining representative meteorological data for watershed‐scale hydrological modelling can be difficult and time consuming. Land‐based weather stations do not always adequately represent the weather occurring over a watershed, because they can be far from the watershed of interest and can have gaps in their data series, or recent data are not available. This study presents a method for using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global meteorological dataset to obtain historical weather data and demonstrates the application to modelling five watersheds representing different hydroclimate regimes. CFSR data are available globally for each hour since 1979 at a 38‐km resolution. Results show that utilizing the CFSR precipitation and temperature data to force a watershed model provides stream discharge simulations that are as good as or better than models forced using traditional weather gauging stations, especially when stations are more than 10 km from the watershed. These results further demonstrate that adding CFSR data to the suite of watershed modelling tools provides new opportunities for meeting the challenges of modelling un‐gauged watersheds and advancing real‐time hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends and multi‐annual variability of water temperatures in the river Danube,Serbia

The relationship between air (Ta) and water temperature (Tw) is very important because it shows how the temperature of a water body might respond to future changes in surface Ta. Mean monthly Tw records of three gauging stations (Bezdan, Bogojevo i Veliko Gradi?te) were analysed alongside mean monthly discharge (Q) for the same stations. Additionally, Ta series from two meteorological stations (Sombor and Veliko Gradi?te) were correlated with Tw variations over the period 1950–2012. Locally weighted scatter point smoothing (LOWESS) was used to investigate long‐term trends in the raw data, alongside the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test. Trend significance was established using Yue–Pilon's pre‐whitening approaches to determine trends in climate data. Also, the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used to detect dates of possible changes in the time series. Statistically significant warming trends were observed for annual and seasonal minimum and maximum Tw at all investigated sites. The strongest warming was observed at Bogojevo gauging station for seasonal maximum Tw, with +0.05 °C per year on average. RAPS established that the trend began in the 1980s. This behaviour is linked to climate patterns in the North and East Atlantic which determine the amount of heat advected onto mainland Europe. Statistically significant correlations were found for all Tw on an annual basis. Overall, the strongest correlations (p < 0.01) between Tw residuals and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were recorded for the winter period. These findings suggest possible predictability of Tw over seasonal time‐scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An integrated statistical approach to identify the nonlinear trend of runoff in the Hotan River and its relation with climatic factors

A number of studies have indicated a transition from warm-dry to warm-wet climate in Northwest China after the 1980s. This transition was characterized by an increase in temperature and precipitation, added river runoff volume, increased lake water surface elevation and area, and elevated groundwater table. However, some literatures showed that the Hotan River has presented a contrary situation, i.e. the runoff decreased, whereas temperature and precipitation increased. In order to discover the nonlinear runoff trend and its causes in the Hotan River, based on the related data from hydrological stations, ground and air sounding meteorological stations, this study applied a comprehensive method combing correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and regression analysis to investigate the runoff change in the Hotan River with its relevant climatic factors over the past decades. The main findings are: (a) the hydrological process of the Hotan River is a nonlinear system, with a periodicity of 24 year cycle, and it shows different nonlinear trends at different time scales; (b) the data from the ground meteorological stations in the Hotan area shows a false appearance that there is almost no correlation between runoff and temperature, and a little negative correlation between runoff and precipitation; (c) but the data from air sounding meteorological stations shows the truth that there is a close relation between the runoff in the Hotan River and the 0°C level height in summer on the north slope of Kunlun Mountains. The two variables present a same periodicity, i.e. 24-year cycle, having similar nonlinear trends and significant correlations at different time scales.     

Assessing the Sensitivity of a Model of Runoff Formation in the Ussuri River Basin

A physically based model of runoff formation with daily resolution has been developed for the upper part of the Ussuri basin with an area of 24400 km² based on ECOMAG hydrological modeling platform. Two versions of the hydrological model have been studied: (1) a crude version with the spatial schematization of the drainage area and river network based on DEM 1 × 1 km with the use of soil and landscape maps at a scale of 1: 2500000 and (2) a detailed version with DEM 80 × 80 m and soil and landscape maps of the scale of 1: 100000. Each version of the model has been tested for two variants of meteorological inputs: (1) meteorological forcing data (temperature, air humidity, precipitation) at eight weather stations and (2) with the involvement of additional data on precipitation collected at 15 gages in the basin. The model has been calibrated and validated over a 34-year period (1979–2012) with the use of runoff data for the Ussuri R. and its tributaries. The results of numerical experiments for assessing the sensitivity of model hydrological response to the spatial resolution of land surface characteristics and the density of precipitation gaging stations are discussed.     

Space–time changes in hydrological processes in response to human activities and climatic change in the south China

Due to the influence of climate change and human activities, more and more regions around the world are nowadays facing serious water shortages. This is particularly so with the Guangdong province, an economically prosperous region in China. This study aims at understanding the abrupt behavior of hydrological processes by analyzing monthly precipitation series from 257 rain gauging stations and monthly streamflow series from 25 hydrological stations using the likelihood ratio statistic and schwarz information criterion (SIC). The underlying causes of the changing properties of hydrological processes are investigated by analyzing precipitation changes and information of water reservoirs. It is found that (1) streamflow series in dry season seems to exhibit abrupt changes when compared to that in the flood season; (2) abrupt changes in the values of mean and variance of hydrological variables in the dry season are more common than those in the streamflow series in the flood season, which implies that streamflow in the dry season is more sensitive to human activities and climate change than that in the flood season; (3) no change points are identified in the annual precipitation and precipitation series in the flood season. Annual streamflow and streamflow in the flood season exhibit no abrupt changes, showing the influence of precipitation on streamflow changes in the flood season. However, streamflow changes in the dry season seem to be heavily influenced by hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. The results of this study are of practical importance for regional water resource management in the Guangdong province.     

UPLAND EROSION MODELING WITH CASC2D-SED

1 INTRODUCTION Erosion and sedimentation embody the processes of detachment, transport, and deposition of soil particles. Erosion and subsequent deposition can cause major problems. Erosion reduces productivity of cropland, sediment degrades water quality and may carry soil adsorbed polluting chemicals. Deposition in irrigation canals, stream channels and reservoirs reduces structural capacity and requires costly removal. Ideally, an erosion model should describe the physical processes…     

CHARACTERISTICS OF SEDIMENT TRANSPORT ALONG A RIVER REACH WITH A RESERVOIR

Based on long-term measurements at three gauging stations, Toudaoguai, Fugu and Hequ, and one meteorological station, this article discusses the features of discharge (Q) and sediment concentration (Cs) of a river reach of the Yellow River with a reservoir located in the Loess Plateau. The impacts of the local sub-watershed between Toudaoguai and Fugu gauging stations on sediment budget to the Yellow River have been analyzed. In addition, the deposition processes in the Tianqiao Reservoir have been investigated. Results show over 80% of the precipitation that falls in the local subwatershed is unable to contribute to the Yellow River runoff process. It is found that the annualmaximum sediment concentration is usually less than 30 kg/m^3 during flood seasons at Toudaoguai Gauging Station, but the sediment concentration varies dramatically at Fugu Gauging Station. About 35% of the sediment eroded in the sub-watersheds between Toudaoguai and Fugu gauging stationswas produced from the Huangfuchuan sub-watershed which has a drainage area accounting only for 10% of the drainage area between Toudaoguai and Fugu gauging stations. The Tianqiao Reservoir generally has deposition during the summer flood season, and scouring during the non-flood season.On average, over 85% of deposited sediment in the reservoir occurs in the 12 km long lower reservoir reach. The volume of annual deposition in the reservoir mainly depends on the volume of water from the local region between Hequ and Fugu gauging stations.     

The Baltic Sea Experiment BALTEX: A brief overview and some selected results of the authors

The mechanisms responsible for the transfer of energy and water within the climate system are under worldwide investigation within the framework of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) to improve the predictability of natural and man-made climate changes at short and long ranges and their impact on water resources. Five continental-scale experiments have been established within GEWEX to enable a more complete coupling between atmospheric and hydrological models. One of them is the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX).In this paper, the goals and structure of BALTEX are outlined. A short overview of measuring and modelling strategies is given. Atmospheric and hydrological model results of the authors only are presented. These include also the validation of precipitation using station measurements as well as validation of modelled cloud cover with cloud estimates from satellite data. Furthermore, results of a large-scale grid based hydrological model to be coupled to atmospheric models are presented.This research has never been possible without the contribution of research groups and operational institutions from all 10 member countries. We concentrate here on results obtained at the GKSS research center.     

Evaluation of dynamically downscaled reanalysis precipitation data for hydrological application

Skilful and reliable precipitation data are essential for seasonal hydrologic forecasting and generation of hydrological data. Although output from dynamic downscaling methods is used for hydrological application, the existence of systematic errors in dynamically downscaled data adversely affects the skill of hydrologic forecasting. This study evaluates the precipitation data derived by dynamically downscaling the global atmospheric reanalysis data by propagating them through three hydrological models. Hydrological models are calibrated for 28 watersheds located across the southeastern United States that is minimally affected by human intervention. Calibrated hydrological models are forced with five different types of datasets: global atmospheric reanalysis (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts 40‐year Reanalysis) at their native resolution; dynamically downscaled global atmospheric reanalysis at 10‐km grid resolution; stochastically generated data from weather generator; bias‐corrected dynamically downscaled; and bias‐corrected global reanalysis. The reanalysis products are considered as surrogates for large‐scale observations. Our study indicates that over the 28 watersheds in the southeastern United States, the simulated hydrological response to the bias‐corrected dynamically downscaled data is superior to the other four meteorological datasets. In comparison with synthetically generated meteorological forcing (from weather generator), the dynamically downscaled data from global atmospheric reanalysis result in more realistic hydrological simulations. Therefore, we conclude that dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, which offers data for sufficient number of years (in this case 22 years), although resource intensive, is relatively more useful than other sources of meteorological data with comparable period in simulating realistic hydrological response at watershed scales. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the water balance of a mesoscale catchment basin using remotely sensed land cover data

Hydrological modelling of mesoscale catchments is often adversely affected by a lack of adequate information about specific site conditions. In particular, digital land cover data are available from data sets which were acquired on a European or a national scale. These data sets do not only exhibit a restricted spatial resolution but also a differentiation of crops and impervious areas which is not appropriate to the needs of mesoscale hydrological models. In this paper, the impact of remote sensing data on the reliability of a water balance model is investigated and compared to model results determined on the basis of CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) Land Cover as a reference. The aim is to quantify the improved model performance achieved by an enhanced land cover representation and corresponding model modifications. Making use of medium resolution satellite imagery from SPOT, LANDSAT ETM+ and ASTER, detailed information on land cover, especially agricultural crops and impervious surfaces, was extracted over a 5-year period (2000–2004). Crop-specific evapotranspiration coefficients were derived by using remote sensing data to replace grass reference evapotranspiration necessitated by the use of CORINE land cover for rural areas. For regions classified as settlement or industrial areas, degrees of imperviousness were derived. The data were incorporated into the hydrological model GROWA (large-scale water balance model), which uses an empirical approach combining distributed meteorological data with distributed site parameters to calculate the annual runoff components. Using satellite imagery in combination with runoff data from gauging stations for the years 2000–2004, the actual evapotranspiration calculation in GROWA was methodologically extended by including empirical crop coefficients for actual evapotranspiration calculations. While GROWA originally treated agricultural areas as homogeneous, now a consideration and differentiation of the main crops is possible. The accuracy was determined by runoff measurements from gauging stations. Differences in water balances resulting from the use of remote sensing data as opposed to CORINE were analysed in this study using a representative subcatchment. Resulting Nash–Sutcliff model efficiencies improved from 0.372 to 0.775 and indicate that the enhanced model can produce thematically more accurate and spatially more detailed local water balances. However, the proposed model enhancements by satellite imagery have not exhausted the full potential of water balance modelling, for which a higher temporal resolution is required.     

Baseflow prediction in a data-scarce catchment with Inselberg topography,Central Mozambique

This study aimed to improve the understanding of hydrological processes in a humid (sub)tropical area in Africa with Inselberg topography. Additionally, the study intended to develop an approach for selective discharge data acquisition to determine water availability for smallholder irrigation in similar data-scarce catchments. During the December 2012–August 2013 field campaign meteorological and river stage data were collected at the Messica catchment in Central Mozambique. The 220 km² catchment has an estimated 1000 ha of irrigated land, developed by smallholder farmers. Baseflow in the perennial tributary streams on the slopes of a meta-sedimentary Inselberg is the source of irrigation water. The baseflow recession curve of one of these tributaries is analysed and the water balance of an average year was determined. Precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration and discharge were estimated to be 1224, 1462, 949 and 266 mm/year respectively. Differential gauging showed that the perennial tributaries gain water; the groundwater contribution increased with approximately 50% over two and a half month relative to the downstream discharge from March to May. In the downstream parts the groundwater contribution per metre stream length is between 30% and 100% higher compared to the upstream parts for two of the tributaries. Nevertheless, due to natural streambed infiltration and irrigation canals, discharge varies over the length of these tributaries. A rainfall–runoff model (HBV) was calibrated using the field data to examine the relation between precipitation characteristics and discharge at the start of the dry season. For precipitation scenarios with low and high intensity precipitation, discharges from June onwards were approximately similar in size according to the calibrated model. This suggest that discharge at the start of the dry season is mainly determined by total precipitation and the timing of precipitation (i.e. early or late in the wet season), not by individual rainfall events or rainfall intensity. It is concluded that the use of selective discharge measurements and low frequency precipitation measurements can effectively be used for water availability assessments in Inselberg catchments. Further research should be conducted to verify the validity of the used techniques in other humid sub-tropical Inselberg areas.     

Periodic changes of stream flow in the last 40 years in Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang, China

Using the annual runoff series for the last 40 years from the Tarim River Basin, their periodic properties were analysed and their future trends predicted. Runoff data were collected at five hydrological gauging stations in the three main branches of the Tarim River. An extrapolation method and variance analysis were used to identify periods in annual runoff, and a trend superposition model to predict future changes. Results show that, there is a common period of 17 years in annual runoff changes for all three branches, with Hotan River showing an additional period of 10 years. Based on this trend, it is suggested that the annual runoff of the Tarim River should decrease in the period of 2006–2008, but increase in year 2009, and the flow may possibly begin to decrease significantly in year 2010. The long term trend of runoff in Tarim Basin has followed the global prediction of GCMs, i.e. began to increase in accordance with global increase of air temperature and precipitation in 1990. However, it has shown a local feature of uneven changes among the head streams in the same basin, which needs to be further investigated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of evapotranspiration variations between the Yellow River and Pearl River basin, China

Based on daily meteorological data at 43 gauging stations in the Pearl River basin and 65 gauging stations in the Yellow River basin, we analyze changing properties of actual evapotranspiration (ET_a), reference evapotranspiration (ET_ref) and precipitation in these two river basins. In our study, Pearl River basin is taken as the ‘energy-limited’ system and the Yellow River basin as the ‘water-limited’ system. The results indicate decreasing ET_a in the Pearl River and Yellow River basin. However, different changing properties are detected for ET_ref when compared to ET_a. The middle and upper Yellow River basin are characterized by increasing ET_ref values, whereas the Pearl River basin is dominated by decreasing ET_ref values. This result demonstrates enhancing drying force in the Yellow River basin. ET_a depends mainly on the changes of precipitation amount in the Yellow River basin. In the Pearl River basin, however, ET_a changes are similar to those of ET_ref, i.e. both are in decreasing trend and which may imply weakening hydrological cycle in the Pearl River basin. Different influencing factors are identified behind the ET_a and ET_ref in the Pearl River and Yellow River basin: In the Pearl River basin, intensifying urbanization and increasing aerosol may contribute much to the evapotranspiration changes. Variations of precipitation amount may largely impact the spatial and temporal patterns of ET_a in the Yellow River basin. The current study is practically and scientifically significant for regional assessment of water resource in the arid and humid regions of China under the changing climate.     

Hydrological information for sustainable development

Abstract

This paper presents the development of a framework for data collection network design that considers sustainable development goals. The proposed framework adopts sustainable development principles and incorporates and revises traditional methodologies used in data collection network design. Important components of the framework include a focus on hydrological information, the preservation of long term gauging stations, and the adoption of integrated ecosystem monitoring. The eventual adoption of the framework should ensure that hydrological information required for effective decision making in water resources is available even as hydrometric data collection networks are rationalized.     

Modeling Water and Heat Balance Components for Large Agricultural Region Utilizing Information from Meteorological Satellites

The method has been developed to evaluate water and heat balance components for vegetation covered area of regional scale based on the refined physical-mathematical model of vertical water and heat exchange between land surface and atmosphere (Land Surface Model, LSM) for vegetation season adapted to satellite information on land surface and meteorological conditions. The LSM is accommodated for utilizing satellite-derived estimates of vegetation and meteorological characteristics as model parameters and input variables. Estimates of these characteristics presented as distributions of their values over the study area have been obtained from AVHRR/NOAA, MODIS/EOS Terra and Aqua, SEVIRI/Meteosat-9, -10 data. To build such estimates methods and technologies have been developed and refined using results of thematic processing measurement data from these sensors. Among them the original Multi Threshold Method (MTM) has been developed and tested to calculate daily precipitation sums using rainfall intensity estimates retrieved from AVHRR and SEVIRI data with subsequent replacement of ground-measured rainfall amounts by these daily rainfalls. All technologies have been adapted to the study area with square of 227300 km² being the part of the Central Black Earth Region of European Russia. Developed earlier procedures of utilizing satellitederived estimates of vegetation and meteorological characteristics (including precipitation) in the model have been refined and verified. Final result of modeling is the fields of soil water content, evapotranspiration and other water and heat balance components of the region under study for years 2012–2014 vegetation seasons.     

Spatial and temporal variations in summer precipitation in Japanese mountain areas

We examined spatial and temporal variations in precipitation measured during summer season between 1976 and 2007 for 28 stations located in mountain areas across Japan using the amount of precipitation (Pr), the mean depth of precipitation events (η), and the inverse of the mean interval times (λ). We obtained positive correlations between the period mean Pr (Pr ) and the period mean η ( ) and between Pr and the period mean λ ( ) for the 28 stations. Pr was more strongly related to than to , indicating the spatial variations in Pr that are primarily related to the variations in . In addition, Pr was more strongly related to η than to λ for most stations on the basis of data for 1976–2007, indicating that the year‐to‐year variations in Pr are primarily related to η. We also examined temporal trends in Pr, η and λ for 1976–2007 and found no systematic trends for 23 of the 28 stations, suggesting long‐term trends that are not common in mountain areas of Japan. The relationships between Pr and and between Pr and η presented in this study enable us to generate a temporal precipitation distribution pattern based on only Pr and Pr data, respectively. Furthermore, probabilistic stochastic hydrological models require precipitation characteristics as input; thus, this study contributes to the determination of hydrological cycles and their possible future changes in Japanese mountain areas and therefore to water resource management. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative analysis of the seasonality of hydrological characteristics in Slovakia and Austria / Analyse comparative de la saisonnalité de caractéristiques hydrologiques en Slovaquie et en Autriche

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to compare the seasonality of selected precipitation and runoff characteristics in Austria and Slovakia. Monthly seasonality indices are analysed to interpret the long-term climatic behaviour, while the seasonality of extremes is analysed to understand flood occurrence. The analysis is based on mean monthly precipitation data at 555 (Austria) and 202 (Slovakia) stations, annual maximum daily precipitation at 520 (Austria) and 56 (Slovakia) stations, and mean monthly runoff and annual maximum floods at 258 (Austria) and 85 (Slovakia) gauging stations. The results suggest that the seasonality of the selected hydrological characteristics is an important indicator of flood processes, but varies considerably in space. The seasonality of extreme flood events and, hence flood processes, tends to change with the flood magnitude. This change is more pronounced in the lowland and hilly regions than it is in the mountains. Both in Austria and Slovakia, decades of flood seasonality exist.     

Initial impacts of a wildfire on hydrology and suspended sediment and nutrient export in California chaparral watersheds

Stream and rainfall gauging and runoff sampling were used to determine changes in hydrology and export of nutrients and suspended sediment from a June 2004 wildfire that burned 3010 ha in chaparral coastal watersheds of the Santa Ynez Mountains, California. Precipitation during water year 2005 exceeded average precipitation by 200–260%. Burned watersheds had order of magnitude higher peak discharge compared with unburned watersheds but similar annual runoff. Suspended sediment export of 181 mt ha^?1 from a burned watershed was approximately ten times greater than from unburned watersheds. Ammonium export from burned watersheds largely occurred during the first three storms and was 32 times greater than from unburned watersheds. Nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen, and phosphate export from burned watersheds increased by 5.5, 2.8, and 2.2 times, respectively, compared with unburned chaparral watersheds. Storm runoff and peak discharge increase in burned compared with unburned sites were greatest during early season storms when enhanced runoff occurred. As the winter progressed, closely spaced storms and above average precipitation reduced the fire‐related impacts that resulted in significant increases in annual post‐fire runoff and export in other studies in southern California chaparral. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in semiarid regions: a case study of the Wei River basin,China

Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activity on the hydrological processes in river basins is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining local economic development. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate variability and human activity on mean annual flow in the Wei River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and wavelet transform were applied to detect the variations of hydrometeorological variables in the semiarid Wei River basin in the northwestern China. The identifications were based on streamflow records from 1958 to 2008 at four hydrological stations as well as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 21 climate stations. A simple method based on Budyko curve was used to evaluate potential impacts of climate change and human activities on mean annual flow. The results show that annual streamflow decreased because of the reduced precipitation and increased PET at most stations. Both annual and seasonal precipitation and PET demonstrated mixed trends of decreasing and increasing, although significant trends (P < 0.05) were consistently detected in spring and autumn at most stations. Significant periodicities of 0.5 and 1 year (P < 0.05) were examined in all the time series. The spectrum of streamflow at the Huaxian station shows insignificant annual cycle during 1971–1975, 1986–1993 and 1996–2008, which is probably resulted from human activities. Climate variability greatly affected water resources in the Beiluo River, whereas human activities (including soil and water conservation, irrigation, reservoirs construction, etc.) accounted more for the changes of streamflow in the area near the Huaxian station during different periods. The results from this article can be used as a reference for water resources planning and management in the semiarid Wei River basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China

Streamflow series of five hydrological stations were analyzed with aim to indicate variability of water resources in the Tarim River basin. Besides, impacts of climate changes on water resources were investigated by analyzing daily precipitation and temperature data of 23 meteorological stations covering 1960–2005. Some interesting and important results were obtained: (1) the study region is characterized by increasing temperature, however, only temperature in autumn is in significant increasing trend; (2) precipitation changes present different properties. Generally, increasing precipitation can be detected. However, only the precipitation in the Tienshan mountain area is in significant increasing trend. Annual streamflow of major rivers of the Tarim River basin are not in significant trends, except that of the Akesu River which is in significantly increasing trend. Due to the geomorphologic properties of the Tienshan mountain area, precipitation in this area demonstrates significant increasing trend and which in turn leads to increasing streamflow of the Akesu River. Due to the fact that the sources of streamflow of the rivers in the Tarim River basin are precipitation and melting glacial, both increasing precipitation and accelerating melting ice has the potential to cause increasing streamflow. These results are of practical and scientific merits in basin-scale water resource management in the arid regions in China under the changing environment.