Dendrohydroclimate reconstructions of July–August runoff for two nival‐regime rivers in west central British Columbia

Lengthy records of river discharge are necessary to comprehensively assess the long‐term connection between synoptic climate forcings and nival‐regime systems in British Columbia. A regional multispecies network of tree‐ring width and ring density chronologies was built for west central British Columbia with the intention of dendrohydrologically extending short runoff records in this area. Extended records of July–August mean discharge anomalies for the Skeena and Atnarko Rivers were reconstructed back to ad 1660. Low flow events represented during the late 1600s, early 1700s and late 1800s lie beyond those experienced during the recent instrumental period for these basins. The documentation of extreme events of this magnitude necessitates consideration when planning for future water resources in this region. Supplementary dendroclimatic reconstructions of the winter Pacific North American (PNA) pressure anomaly pattern and records of mean summer temperature and end‐of‐winter snow water equivalent were also constructed. These ancillary climate records provide insight into the long‐term climate drivers of annual discharge dynamics within these nival basins. Correlation and wavelet analyses confirm the persistent relationship of synoptic climate regimes described by the Southern Oscillation Index, NINO 3.4, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and PNA indices on runoff in west central British Columbia. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elevation‐dependent responses of streamflow to climate warming

Warming will affect snowline elevation, potentially altering the timing and magnitude of streamflow from mountain landscapes. Presently, the assessment of potential elevation‐dependent responses is difficult because many gauged watersheds integrate drainage areas that are both snow and rain dominated. To predict the impact of snowline rise on streamflow, we mapped the current snowline (1980 m) for the Salmon River watershed (Idaho, USA) and projected its elevation after 3 °C warming (2440 m). This increase results in a 40% reduction in snow‐covered area during winter months. We expand this analysis by collecting streamflow records from a new, elevation‐stratified gauging network of watersheds contained within high (2250–3800 m), mid (1500–2250 m) and low (300–1500 m) elevations that isolate snow, mixed and rain‐dominated precipitation regimes. Results indicate that lags between percentiles of precipitation and streamflow are much shorter in low elevations than in mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds. Low elevation annual percentiles (Q₂₅ and Q₇₅) of streamflow occur 30–50 days earlier than in higher elevation watersheds. Extreme events in low elevations are dominated by low‐ and no‐flow events whereas mid‐ and high‐elevation extreme events are primarily large magnitude floods. Only mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds are strongly cross correlated with catchment‐wide flow of the Salmon River, suggesting that changes in contributions from low‐elevation catchments may be poorly represented using mainstem gauges. As snowline rises, mid‐elevation watersheds will likely exhibit behaviours currently observed only at lower elevations. Streamflow monitoring networks designed for operational decision making or change detection may require modification to capture elevation‐dependent responses of streamflow to warming. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the role of the snowpack in generating water available for run‐off during rain‐on‐snow events from snow pillow records

Rain‐on‐snow events have generated major floods around the world, particularly in coastal, mountainous regions. Most previous studies focused on a limited number of major rain‐on‐snow events or were based primarily on model results, largely due to a lack of long‐term records from lysimeters or other instrumentation for quantifying event water balances. In this analysis, we used records from five automated snow pillow sites in south coastal British Columbia, Canada, to reconstruct event water balances for 286 rain‐on‐snow events over a 10‐year period. For large rain‐on‐snow events (event rainfall >40 mm), snowmelt enhanced the production of water available for run‐off (WAR) by approximately 25% over rainfall alone. For smaller events, a range of antecedent and meteorological factors influenced WAR generation, particularly the antecedent liquid water content of the snowpack. Most large events were associated with atmospheric rivers. Rainfall dominated WAR generation during autumn and winter events, whereas snowmelt dominated during spring and summer events. In the majority of events, the sensible heat of rain contributed less than 10% of the total energy consumed by snowmelt. This analysis illustrated the importance of understanding the amount of rainfall occurring at high elevations during rain‐on‐snow events in mountainous regions.     

Contrasted hydrological responses to forest harvesting in two large neighbouring watersheds in snow hydrology dominant environment: implications for forest management and future forest hydrology studies

Two large neighbouring watersheds, the Bowron (3420 km²) and Willow (2860 km²) situated in the central interior of British Columbia, Canada, were used to compare their hydrological responses to forest harvesting in snow‐dominant environment. Both watersheds had experienced significant, comparative forest harvesting level. The long‐term hydrometric and timber harvesting data (>50 years of records) were analysed using time series analysis to examine the hydrological impacts of forest harvesting. The hydrological variables including mean, peak and low flows over annual and seasonal scales (spring snowmelt, summer rain and winter base flow) were tested separately. Results showed that forest harvesting in the Willow watershed significantly increased annual and spring mean flows as well as annual and spring peak flows, whereas it caused an insignificant change on those hydrological variables in the Bowron watershed. The contrasted differences in hydrological responses are due to the differences in topography, spatial heterogeneity, forest harvesting characteristics and climate between two watersheds. The relative uniform topography and climate in the Willow watershed may promote hydrological synchronization effects, whereas larger variation in elevations, together with forest harvesting that occurred at lower elevations, may cause hydrological de‐synchronization effect in the Bowron watershed. The contrasted results demonstrate that the effects of forest harvesting on hydrology in large watersheds are likely watershed specific, and any attempt to generalize hydrological responses to forest harvesting must be carried out with caution. A landscape ecological perspective is critically needed for future forest hydrology studies, particularly for large watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of mid‐twenty‐first century climate and land cover change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin,Washington

The distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) was used to study the potential impacts of projected future land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin, Washington, in the mid‐twenty‐first century. A 60‐year climate model output, archived for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), was statistically downscaled and used as input to DHSVM. From the DHSVM output, we extracted multi‐decadal averages of seasonal streamflow, annual maximum flow, snow water equivalent (SWE), and evapotranspiration centred around 2030 and 2050. Future land cover was represented by a 2027 projection, which was extended to 2050, and DHSVM was run (with current climate) for these future land cover projections. In general, the climate change signal alone on sub‐basin streamflow was evidenced primarily through changes in the timing of winter and spring runoff, and slight increases in the annual runoff. Runoff changes in the uplands were attributable both to climate (increased winter precipitation, less snow) and land cover change (mostly reduced vegetation maturity). The most climatically sensitive parts of the uplands were in areas where the current winter precipitation is in the rain–snow transition zone. Changes in land cover were generally more important than climate change in the lowlands, where a substantial change to more urbanized land use and increased runoff was predicted. Both the annual total and seasonal distribution of freshwater flux to Puget Sound are more sensitive to climate change impacts than to land cover change, primarily because most of the runoff originates in the uplands. Both climate and land cover change slightly increase the annual freshwater flux to Puget Sound. Changes in the seasonal distribution of freshwater flux are mostly related to climate change, and consist of double‐digit increases in winter flows and decreases in summer and fall flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter,California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Runoff evolution in the Swiss Alps: projections for selected high‐alpine catchments based on ENSEMBLES scenarios

The Alps are often referred to as the ‘water tower of Europe’. In Switzerland, many branches of the economy, especially the hydropower industry, are closely linked to and dependent on the availability of water. Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow runoff is, thus, of great interest. Major efforts have already been made in this respect, but the analyses often focus on individual catchments and are difficult to intercompare. In this article, we analysed nine high‐alpine catchments spread over the Swiss Alps, selected for their relevance to a wide range of morphological characteristics. Runoff projections were carried out until the end of the current century by applying the Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) and climate scenarios generated in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. We focused on assessing the uncertainty induced by the unknown climate evolution and provided general, statistically based statements, which should be useful as a ‘rule of thumb’ for analyses addressing questions related to water management. Catchments with a high degree of glacierization will undergo the largest changes. General statements about absolute variations in discharge are unreliable, but an overall pattern, with an initial phase of increased annual discharge, followed by a phase with decreasing discharge, is recognizable for all catchments with a significant degree of glacierization. In these catchments, a transition from glacial and glacio‐nival regime types to nival will occur. The timing of maximal annual runoff is projected to occur before 2050 in all basins. The time of year with maximal daily discharges is expected to occur earlier at a rate of 4·4 ± 1·7 days per decade. Compared to its present level, the contribution of snow‐ and icemelt to annual discharge is projected to drop by 15 to 25% until the year 2100. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of future runoff trends under multiple climate change scenarios in the Willamette River Basin,Oregon, USA

We investigated trends in future seasonal runoff components in the Willamette River Basin (WRB) of Oregon for the twenty‐first century. Statistically downscaled climate projections by Climate Impacts Group (CIG), eight different global climate model (GCM) simulations with two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, (A1B and B1), were used as inputs for the US Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modelling System. Ensemble mean results show negative trends in spring (March, April and May) and summer (June, July and August) runoff and positive trends in fall (September, October and November) and winter (December, January and February) runoff for 2000–2099. This is a result of temperature controls on the snowpack and declining summer and increasing winter precipitation. With temperature increases throughout the basin, snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline consistently for all seasons. The decreases in the centre of timing and 7‐day low flows and increases in the top 5% flow are caused by the earlier snowmelt in spring, decreases in summer runoff and increases in fall and winter runoff, respectively. Winter runoff changes are more pronounced in higher elevations than in low elevations in winter. Seasonal runoff trends are associated with the complex interactions of climatic and topographic variables. While SWE is the most important explanatory variable for spring and winter runoff trends, precipitation has the strongest influence on fall runoff. Spatial error regression models that incorporate spatial dependence better explain the variations of runoff trends than ordinary least‐squares (OLS) multiple regression models. Our results show that long‐term trends of water balance components in the WRB could be highly affected by anthropogenic climate change, but the direction and magnitude of such changes are highly dependent on the interactions between climate change and land surface hydrology. This suggests a need for spatially explicit adaptive water resource management within the WRB under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tree‐ring records unveil long‐term influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on snowpack dynamics in the Stikine River basin,northern British Columbia

Long hydroclimate records are essential elements for the assessment and management of changing freshwater resources. These records are especially important in transboundary watersheds where international cooperation is required in the joint planning and management process of shared basins. Dendrochronological techniques were used to develop a multicentury record of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) for the Stikine River basin in northern British Columbia, Canada, from moisture‐sensitive white spruce (Picea glauca) tree rings. Explaining 43% of the instrumental SWE variability, to our knowledge, this research represents the first attempt to develop long‐term snowpack reconstructions in northern British Columbia. The results indicated that 15 extreme low April 1 SWE events occurred from 1789 to the beginning of the instrumental record in 1974. The reconstruction record also shows that the occurrence of hydrological extremes in the Stikine River basin is characterized by persistent below‐average periods in SWE consistent with phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Spectral analyses indicate a very distinct in‐phase (positive) relationship between the multidecadal frequencies of variability (~40 years) extracted from the SWE tree‐ring reconstruction and other reconstructed winter and spring PDO indices. Comparison of the reconstructed SWE record with other tree‐ring‐derived PDO proxy records shows coherence at multidecadal frequencies of variability. The research has significant implications for regional watershed management by highlighting the hydrological response of the Stikine River basin to prior climate changes.     

Daily rainfall projections from general circulation models with a downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) for south‐eastern Australia

An ensemble of stochastic daily rainfall projections has been generated for 30 stations across south‐eastern Australia using the downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model, which was driven by atmospheric predictors from four climate models for three IPCC emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) and for two periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The results indicate that the annual rainfall is projected to decrease for both periods for all scenarios and climate models, with the exception of a few scenarios of no statistically significant changes. However, there is a seasonal difference: two downscaled GCMs consistently project a decline of summer rainfall, and two an increase. In contrast, all four downscaled GCMs show a decrease of winter rainfall. Because winter rainfall accounts for two‐thirds of the annual rainfall and produces the majority of streamflow for this region, this decrease in winter rainfall would cause additional water availability concerns in the southern Murray–Darling basin, given that water shortage is already a critical problem in the region. In addition, the annual maximum daily rainfall is projected to intensify in the future, particularly by the end of the 21st century; the maximum length of consecutive dry days is projected to increase, and correspondingly, the maximum length of consecutive wet days is projected to decrease. These changes in daily sequencing, combined with fewer events of reduced amount, could lead to drier catchment soil profiles and further reduce runoff potential and, hence, also have streamflow and water availability implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater level responses in temperate mountainous terrain: regime classification,and linkages to climate and streamflow

Groundwater responses in temperate mountainous terrain are assessed using groundwater, hydrometric and climatic data from southern British Columbia, Canada. Well and stream hydrographs are analysed using a series of diagnostic tools including time series plots, hysteresis plots, and cross‐correlation plots. Characterizing the seasonal timing of the response requires consideration of the hydroclimatology of the region: rainfall‐dominated (pluvial), snowmelt‐dominated (nival) or hybrid (mixture of rain and snow). The magnitude and timing of the recharge and discharge response of the groundwater system was shown to depend on the storage and permeability characteristics of the aquifer and whether the system is stream‐driven or recharge‐driven. These two dominant stream‐aquifer system types were defined based on classifying different aquifer types found in the southwest portion of the province. The classification scheme and diagnostic tools have the potential to provide a framework for evaluating the responses of wells in other mountainous regions. Using this framework, the potential consequences of future climate change may then be better understood based on the interactions between the hydrogeological and hydroclimatic settings of these aquifers. Copyright © 2010 Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons. Ltd     

Quantification of uncertainty in the assessment of future streamflow under changing climate conditions

Climate change has a significant influence on streamflow variation. The aim of this study is to quantify different sources of uncertainties in future streamflow projections due to climate change. For this purpose, 4 global climate models, 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways), 6 downscaling models, and a hydrologic model (UBCWM) are used. The assessment work is conducted for 2 different future time periods (2036 to 2065 and 2066 to 2095). Generalized extreme value distribution is used for the analysis of the flow frequency. Strathcona dam in the Campbell River basin, British Columbia, Canada, is used as a case study. The results show that the downscaling models contribute the highest amount of uncertainty to future streamflow predictions when compared to the contributions by global climate models or representative concentration pathways. It is also observed that the summer flows into Strathcona dam will decrease, and winter flows will increase in both future time periods. In addition to these, the flow magnitude becomes more uncertain for higher return periods in the Campbell River system under climate change.     

Projected 21st century climate change on snow conditions over Shasta Dam watershed by means of dynamical downscaling

Snow is an important component of the Earth's climate system and is particularly vulnerable to global warming. It has been suggested that warmer temperatures may cause significant declines in snow water content and snow cover duration. In this study, snowfall and snowmelt were projected by means of a regional climate model that was coupled to a physically based snow model over Shasta Dam watershed to assess changes in snow water content and snow cover duration during the 21st century. This physically based snow model requires both physical data and future climate projections. These physical data include topography, soils, vegetation, and land use/land cover, which were collected from associated organizations. The future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the regional climate model under 4 emission scenarios simulated by 2 general circulation models (fifth‐generation of the ECHAM general circulation model and the third‐generation atmospheric general circulation model). The downscaled future projections were bias corrected before projecting snowfall and snowmelt processes over Shasta Dam watershed during 2010–2099. This study's results agree with those of previous studies that projected snow water equivalent is decreasing by 50–80% whereas the fraction of precipitation falling as snowfall is decreasing by 15% to 20%. The obtained projection results show that future snow water content will change in both time and space. Furthermore, the results confirm that physical data such as topography, land cover, and atmospheric–hydrologic data are instrumental in the studies on the impact of climate change on the water resources of a region.     

A 477‐year dendrohydrological assessment of drought severity for Tsable River,Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Summer streamflow droughts are becoming more severe in many watersheds on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, as a result of climate warming. Small coastal basins that are the primary water source for most communities and essential to Pacific salmon populations have been particularly affected. Because the most extreme naturally occurring droughts are rarely captured within short instrumental records water managers likely underestimate, and are unprepared for, worst‐case scenario low flows. To provide a long‐term perspective on recent droughts on Vancouver Island, we developed a 477‐year long dendrohydrological reconstruction of summer streamflow for Tsable River based on a network of annual tree‐ring width data. A novel aspect of our study is the use of conifer trees that are energy limited by spring snowmelt timing. Explaining 63% of the instrumental streamflow variability, to our knowledge the reconstruction is the longest of its kind in British Columbia. We demonstrate that targeting the summer streamflow component derived from snowmelt is powerful for determining drought‐season discharge in hybrid runoff regimes, and we suggest that this approach may be applied to small watersheds in temperate environments that are not usually conducive to dendrohydrology. Our findings suggest that since 1520, 21 droughts occurred that were more extreme than recent ‘severe’ events like those in 2003 and 2009. Recent droughts are therefore not anomalous relative to the ~400‐year pre‐instrumental record and should be anticipated within water management strategies. In coming decades, worst‐case scenario natural droughts compounded by land use change and climate change could result in droughts more severe than any since 1520. The influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on instrumental and modelled Tsable River summer streamflow is likely linked to the enhanced role of snowmelt in determining summer discharge during cool phases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Base flow‐driven shifts in tropical stream temperature regimes across a mean annual rainfall gradient

Climate change is expected to affect air temperature and watershed hydrology, but the degree to which these concurrent changes affect stream temperature is not well documented in the tropics. How stream temperature varies over time under changing hydrologic conditions is difficult to isolate from seasonal changes in air temperature. Groundwater and bank storage contributions to stream flow (i.e., base flow [BF]) buffer water temperatures against seasonal and daily fluctuations in solar radiation and air temperature, whereas rainfall‐driven runoff produces flooding events that also influence stream temperature. We used a space‐for‐time substitution to examine how shifts in BF and runoff alter thermal regimes in streams by analyzing hydrological and temperature data collected from similar elevations (400–510 m above sea level) across a 3,500‐mm mean annual rainfall gradient on Hawai'i Island. Sub‐daily water temperature and stream flow gathered for 3 years were analyzed for daily, monthly, and seasonal trends and compared with air temperature measured at multiple elevations. Results indicate that decreases in median BF increased mean, maximum, and minimum water temperatures as well as daily temperature range. Monthly and daily trends in stream temperature among watersheds were more pronounced than air temperature, driven by differences in groundwater inputs and runoff. Stream temperature was strongly negatively correlated to BF during the dry season but not during the wet season due to frequent wet season runoff events contributing to total flow. In addition to projected increases in global air temperature, climate driven shifts in rainfall and runoff are likely to affect stream flow and groundwater recharge, with concurrent influences on BF resulting in shifts in water temperature that are likely to affect aquatic ecosystems.     

Climatic influences on forest fire and mountain pine beetle outbreaks and resulting runoff effects in large watersheds in British Columbia,Canada

Many studies have defined the interrelationships between climate, forest disturbance, and runoff at small scales (<100 km²), but few have translated these relationships to large watersheds (>500 km²). In this study, we explore the relationship between climate, extreme forest fire seasons, mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks, and runoff in eight large watersheds within the Fraser and Peace drainage basins in British Columbia (BC), Canada from 1981–2019. Using a climate index based on precipitation and air temperature anomalies, we find extreme forest fire seasons (those that burned >5% of a watershed's area) are most likely to occur when a warm/dry summer is preceded by multiple seasons of cool/wet conditions. Using the climate suitability class (CSC) model to explore the relationship between climate and MPB outbreaks, we validate previous findings that lower-than-average precipitation, warm growing season temperatures, and lack of extremely cold temperatures during winter are connected to MPB outbreaks within central BC. However, the CSC model needs improvements to accurately assess MPB suitability in northern watersheds that are located outside the model's calibration region, either through weighted variables or lower degree day thresholds. Minimal runoff response occurs from these forest disturbances, with the most prominent runoff change being related to the 2014 fire season in the Osilinka and Mesilinka watersheds. The limited effects of forest disturbance on annual runoff are likely related to large watershed sizes, low percentages of disturbed area in some study watersheds and post-MPB forest dynamics. These results provide valuable insight into the interrelationships of climate, forest disturbance and runoff in large Canadian boreal forested watersheds.     

Surface water input from snowmelt and rain throughfall in western juniper: potential impacts of climate change and shifts in semi‐arid vegetation

In the western USA, shifts from snow to rain precipitation regimes and increases in western juniper cover in shrub‐dominated landscapes can alter surface water input via changes in snowmelt and throughfall. To better understand how shifts in both precipitation and semi‐arid vegetation cover alter above‐ground hydrological processes, we assessed how rain interception differs between snow and rain surface water input; how western juniper alters snowpack dynamics; and how these above‐ground processes differ across western juniper, mountain big sagebrush and low sagebrush plant communities. We collected continuous surface water input with four large lysimeters, interspace and below‐canopy snow depth data and conducted periodic snow surveys for two consecutive water years (2013 and 2014). The ratio of interspace to below‐canopy surface water input was greater for snow relative to rain events, averaging 79.4% and 54.8%, respectively. The greater surface water input ratio for snow is in part due to increased deposition of redistributed snow under the canopy. We simulated above‐ground energy and water fluxes in western juniper, low sagebrush and mountain big sagebrush for two 8‐year periods under current and projected mid‐21st century warmer temperatures with the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model. Juniper compared with low and mountain sagebrush reduced surface water input by an average of 138 mm or 24% of the total site water budget. Conversely, warming temperatures reduced surface water input by only an average of 14 mm across the three vegetation types. The future (warmer) simulations resulted in earlier snow disappearance and surface water input by 51 and 45 days, respectively, across juniper, low sagebrush and mountain sagebrush. Information from this study can help land managers in the sagebrush steppe understand how both shifts in climate and semi‐arid vegetation will alter fundamental hydrological processes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of a century of land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin

The Puget Sound basin in northwestern Washington, USA has experienced substantial land cover and climate change over the last century. Using a spatially distributed hydrology model (the Distributed Hydrology‐Soil‐Vegetation Model, DHSVM) the concurrent effects of changing climate (primarily temperature) and land cover in the basin are deconvolved, based on land cover maps for 1883 and 2002, and gridded climate data for 1915–2006. It is found that land cover and temperature change effects on streamflow have occurred differently at high and low elevations. In the lowlands, land cover has occurred primarily as conversion of forest to urban or partially urban land use, and here the land cover signal dominates temperature change. In the uplands, both land cover and temperature change have played important roles. Temperature change is especially important at intermediate elevations (so‐called transient snow zone), where the winter snow line is most sensitive to temperature change—notwithstanding the effects of forest harvest over the same part of the basin. Model simulations show that current land cover results in higher fall, winter and early spring streamflow but lower summer flow; higher annual maximum flow and higher annual mean streamflow compared with pre‐development conditions, which is largely consistent with a trend analysis of model residuals. Land cover change effects in urban and partially urban basins have resulted in changes in annual flow, annual maximum flows, fall and summer flows. For the upland portion of the basin, shifts in the seasonal distribution of streamflows (higher spring flow and lower summer flow) are clearly related to rising temperatures, but annual streamflow has not changed much. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the effects of climatic and hydrological regime changes on the sediment dynamics of the Fraser River Basin,British Columbia,Canada

Future sediment dynamics may be affected by changing climates or hydrological regimes because of the close link between hydrology and sediment erosion, deposition, and transport. Previously, investigations of these potential changes have been constrained by a combination of limited observational data, hydrological drivers, and appropriate mechanistic models. Additionally, there is often ambiguity regarding how to disentangle the impacts of climate and hydrology from direct human factors such as reservoirs and land‐use change, which often exert more control over sediment dynamics. In this study, we utilize a recently developed, large‐scale, distributed, mechanistic sediment transport model to project future sediment erosion, deposition, and transportation within the Fraser River Basin in British Columbia, Canada—a basin with historical water flux and sediment load observations and limited anthropogenic influences upstream of its delta. The sediment model is driven by synthetic land‐surface hydrology derived from Scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, which were provided by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. Resulting simulations of water flux and sediment load from 1965 to 1994 are first validated against observational data then compared with future projections. Future projections show an overall increase in annual hillslope erosion and in‐channel transportation, a shift towards earlier spring peak erosion and transportation, and longer persistence of the sediment signal through the year. These shifts in timing and annual yield may have deleterious effects on spawning sockeye salmon and are insufficient to counteract future coastal retreat caused by sea‐level rise.     

Projecting climate change impacts on stream flow regimes with tracer‐aided runoff models ‐ preliminary assessment of heterogeneity at the mesoscale

The northern mid‐high latitudes form a region that is sensitive to climate change, and many areas already have seen – or are projected to see – marked changes in hydroclimatic drivers on catchment hydrological function. In this paper, we use tracer‐aided conceptual runoff models to investigate such impacts in a mesoscale (749 km²) catchment in northern Scotland. The catchment encompasses both sub‐arctic montane sub‐catchments with high precipitation and significant snow influence and drier, warmer lowland sub‐catchments. We used downscaled HadCM3 General Circulation Model outputs through the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator to project the future climate. This was based on synthetic precipitation and temperature time series generated from three climate change scenarios under low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions. Within an uncertainty framework, we examined the impact of climate change at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales and projected impacts on flow regimes in upland and lowland sub‐catchments using hydrological models with appropriate process conceptualization for each landscape unit. The results reveal landscape‐specific sensitivity to climate change. In the uplands, higher temperatures result in diminishing snow influence which increases winter flows, with a concomitant decline in spring flows as melt reduces. In the lowlands, increases in air temperatures and re‐distribution of precipitation towards autumn and winter lead to strongly reduced summer flows despite increasing annual precipitation. The integration at the catchment outlet moderates these seasonal extremes expected in the headwaters. This highlights the intimate connection between hydrological dynamics and catchment characteristics which reflect landscape evolution. It also indicates that spatial variability of changes in climatic forcing combined with differential landscape sensitivity in large heterogeneous catchments can lead to higher resilience of the integrated runoff response. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.