Long‐term streamflow trends in Hawai'i and implications for native stream fauna

Climate change has fundamentally altered the water cycle in tropical islands, which is a critical driver of freshwater ecosystems. To examine how changes in streamflow regime have impacted habitat quality for native migratory aquatic species, we present a 50‐year (1967–2016) analysis of hydrologic records in 23 unregulated streams across the five largest Hawaiian Islands. For each stream, flow was separated into direct run‐off and baseflow and high‐ and low‐flow statistics (i.e., Q10 and Q90) with ecologically important hydrologic indices (e.g., frequency of flooding and low flow duration) derived. Using Mann–Kendall tests with a running trend analysis, we determined the persistence of streamflow trends through time. We analysed native stream fauna from ~400 sites, sampled from 1992 to 2007, to assess species richness among islands and streams. Declines in streamflow metrics indicated a general drying across the islands. In particular, significant declines in low flow conditions (baseflows), were experienced in 57% of streams, compared with a significant decline in storm flow conditions for 22% of streams. The running trend analysis indicated that many of the significant downward trends were not persistent through time but were only significant if recent decades (1987–2016) were included, with an average decline in baseflow and run‐off of 10.90% and 8.28% per decade, respectively. Streams that supported higher native species diversity were associated with moderate discharge and baseflow index, short duration of low flows, and negligible downward trends in flow. A significant decline in dry season flows (May–October) has led to an increase in the number of no‐flow days in drier areas, indicating that more streams may become intermittent, which has important implications for mauka to makai (mountain to ocean) hydrological connectivity and management of Hawai'i's native migratory freshwater fauna.     

Identification and quantification of streamflow trends on the Canadian Prairies

Abstract

Trend analysis was performed on streamflow data for a collection of stations on the Canadian Prairies, in terms of spring and summer runoff volumes, peak flow rates and peak flow occurrences, as well as an annual volume measure, for analysis periods of 1966–2005, 1971–2005, and 1976–2005. The Mann-Kendall statistical test for trend and bootstrap resampling were used to identify the trends and to determine the field significance of the trends. Partial correlation analysis was used to identify relationships between hydrological variables that exhibit a significant trend and meteorological variables that exhibit a significant trend. Noteworthy results include decreasing trends in the spring snowmelt runoff event volume and peak flow, decreasing trends (earlier occurrence) in the spring snowmelt runoff event peak date and decreasing trends in the seasonal (1 March–31 October) runoff volume. These trends can be attributed to a combination of reductions in snowfall and increases in temperatures during the winter months.     

Daily streamflow trends in Western versus Eastern Norway and their attribution to hydro-meteorological drivers

Regional warming and modifications in precipitation regimes has large impacts on streamflow in Norway, where both rainfall and snowmelt are important runoff generating processes. Hydrological impacts of recent changes in climate are usually investigated by trend analyses applied on annual, seasonal, or monthly time series. None of these detect sub-seasonal changes and their underlying causes. This study investigated sub-seasonal changes in streamflow, rainfall, and snowmelt in 61 and 51 catchments respectively in Western (Vestlandet) and Eastern (Østlandet) Norway by applying the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen estimator on 10-day moving averaged daily time series over a 30-year period (1983–2012). The relative contribution of rainfall versus snowmelt to daily streamflow and the changes therein have also been estimated to identify the changing relevance of these driving processes over the same period. Detected changes in 10-day moving averaged daily streamflow were finally attributed to changes in the most important hydro-meteorological drivers using multiple-regression models with increasing complexity. Earlier spring flow timing in both regions occur due to earlier snowmelt. Østlandet shows increased summer streamflow in catchments up to 1100 m a.s.l. and slightly increased winter streamflow in about 50% of the catchments. Trend patterns in Vestlandet are less coherent. The importance of rainfall has increased in both regions. Attribution of trends reveals that changes in rainfall and snowmelt can explain some streamflow changes where they are dominant processes (e.g., spring snowmelt in Østlandet and autumn rainfall in Vestlandet). Overall, the detected streamflow changes can be best explained by adding temperature trends as an additional predictor, indicating the relevance of additional driving processes such as increased glacier melt and evapotranspiration.     

Climate change and other trends in streamflow observations in Australian forested catchments since 1970

The effect of climate change on water resources has been an area of continued research, especially in Australia. Previous studies have suggested significant trends in rainfall, and these are amplified causing larger changes in streamflow. However, most of the previous analysis was based on annual time scales or modelled data and did not account for changes in land cover, which could interact with changes in climate. Climate data and streamflow data between 1970 and 2010 from 13 mostly forested small catchments (<250 km²) in Australia were analysed for trends. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis, generalized additive mixed modelling and rainfall-runoff modelling were combined for the analysis. This indicates consistent increases in maximum temperature and varied decreases in rainfall. The streamflow in the studied catchments indicated small decreases in streamflow, which amplified observed trends in the rainfall. In general, overall decreases are much smaller than suggested in earlier research.     

Changes in streamflow regime following vegetation changes from paired catchments

Vegetation changes can significantly affect catchment water balance. It is important to evaluate the effects of vegetation cover change on streamflow as changes in streamflow relate to water security. This study focuses on the use of statistical methods to determine responses in streamflow at seven paired catchments in Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa to vegetation change. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt's test were used to identify trends and change points in the annual streamflow records. Statistically significant trends in annual streamflow were detected for most of the treated catchments. It took between 3 and 10 years for a change in vegetation cover to result in significant change in annual streamflow. Presence of the change points in streamflow was associated with changes in the mean, variance, and distribution of annual streamflow. The streamflow in the deforestation catchments increased after the change points, whereas reduction in streamflow was observed in the afforestation catchments. The streamflow response is mainly affected by the climate and underlying vegetation change. Daily flow duration curves (FDCs) for the whole period and pre‐change and post‐change point periods also were analysed to investigate the changes in flow regime. Three types of vegetation change effects on the flow regime have been identified. The relative reductions in most percentile flows are constant in the afforestation catchments. The comparison of trend, change point, and FDC in the annual streamflow from the paired experiments reflects the important role of the vegetation change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Urban hydrologic trend analysis based on rainfall and runoff data analysis and conceptual model calibration

Urban stormwater is a major cause of urban flooding and natural water pollution. It is therefore important to assess any hydrologic trends in urban catchments for stormwater management and planning. This study addresses urban hydrological trend analysis by examining trends in variables that characterize hydrological processes. The original and modified Mann‐Kendall methods are applied to trend detection in two French catchments, that is, Chassieu and La Lechere, based on approximately 1 decade of data from local monitoring programs. In both catchments, no trend is found in the major hydrological process driver (i.e., rainfall variables), whereas increasing trends are detected in runoff flow rates. As a consequence, the runoff coefficients tend to increase during the study period, probably due to growing imperviousness with the local urbanization process. In addition, conceptual urban rainfall‐runoff model parameters, which are identified via model calibration with an event based approach, are examined. Trend detection results indicate that there is no trend in the time of concentration in Chassieu, whereas a decreasing trend is present in La Lechere, which, however, needs to be validated with additional data. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the original Mann‐Kendall method is not sensitive to a few noisy values in the data series.     

Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow

Abstract

Reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) can play an important role in monitoring for changes in the hydrological regime related to climate variation and change. Currently, the literature concerning hydrological response to climate variations is complex and confounded by the combinations of many methods of analysis, wide variations in hydrology, and the inclusion of data series that include changes in land use, storage regulation and water use in addition to those of climate. Three case studies that illustrate a variety of approaches to the analysis of data from RHNs are presented and used, together with a summary of studies from the literature, to develop approaches for the investigation of changes in the hydrological regime at a continental or global scale, particularly for international comparison. We present recommendations for an analysis framework and the next steps to advance such an initiative. There is a particular focus on the desirability of establishing standardized procedures and methodologies for both the creation of new national RHNs and the systematic analysis of data derived from a collection of RHNs.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Burn, D. H., et al., 2012 Whitfield, P.H. 2012. Reference hydrologic networks, I. The status of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends and future directions. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57(8) this issue[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]. Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1580–1593.     

Response of streamflow to climate change and human activity in Xitiaoxi river basin in China

In recent years, the Xitiaoxi river basin in China has experienced intensified human activity, including city expansion and increased water demand. Climate change also has influenced streamflow. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity on hydrological processes is important for water resources planning and management and for the sustainable development of eco‐environmental systems. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was employed to detect the trends of climatic and hydrological variables. The Mann–Kendall–Sneyers test and the moving t‐test were used to locate any abrupt change of annual streamflow. A runoff model, driven by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, was employed to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow. A significant downward trend was detected for annual streamflow from 1975 to 2009, and an abrupt change occurred in 1999, which was consistent with the change detected by the double mass curve test between streamflow and precipitation. The annual precipitation decreased slightly, but upward trends of annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration were significant. The annual streamflow during the period 1999–2009 decreased by 26.19% compared with the reference stage, 1975–1998. Climate change was estimated to be responsible for 42.8% of the total reduction in annual streamflow, and human activity accounted for 57.2%. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in reference evapotranspiration in the humid region of northeast India

In the present study, the trends in the reference evapotranspiration (ET_O) estimated through the Penman‐Monteith method were investigated over the humid region of northeast (NE) India by using the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test after removing the effect of significant lag‐1 serial correlation from the time series of ET_O by pre‐whitening. During the last 22 years, ET_O has been found to decrease significantly at annual and seasonal time scales for 6 sites in NE India and NE India as a whole. The seasonal decreases in ET_O have, however, been more significant in the pre‐monsoon season, indicating the presence of an element of a seasonal cycle. The decreases in ET_O are mainly attributed to the net radiation and wind speed, which are also corroborated by the observed trends in these two parameters at almost all the times scales over most of the sites in NE India. The steady decrease in wind speed and decline in net radiation not only balanced the impact of the temperature increases on ET_O, but may have actually caused the decreases in ET_O over the humid region of northeast India. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating impacts of wildfire and climate variability on streamflow in Victoria,Australia

Wildfires are common in Australia and can cause vegetation loss and affect hydrological processes such as interception, evapotranspiration, soil water storage and streamflow. This study investigates wildfire impacts on catchment mean annual streamflow for 14 Australian catchments that have been severely impacted by the 2009 Victoria wildfire, the second-worst wildfire disaster in Australia. A statistical approach based on sensitivity coefficients was used for quantifying the climate variability impacts on streamflow and the time trend analysis method was used to estimate the annual streamflow changes due to wildfire respectively. Our results show that wildfire has caused a noticeable increase in mean annual streamflow in the catchments with a burnt area above 70% for an immediate post-wildfire period (2009–2015) and the wildfire impact on streamflow is evidently larger than the climate change impact in the majority of burnt catchments. Furthermore, the wildfire impact on mean annual streamflow strongly increases with the burnt percentage area, indicated by R² = 0.73 between the two. The results also illustrate that catchments with high burnt percentage areas can have more potential to gain increased streamflow due to wildfires compared with that due to climate variability and can have significant streamflow change after wildfires above the 70% threshold of burnt area. These results provide evidence for evaluating large-scale wildfire impact on streamflow at small to medium-sized catchments, and guidance for process-based hydrological models for simulating wildfire impacts on hydrological processes for the immediate period after the wildfire.     

Seasonal and spatial variations in the scaling and correlation structure of streamflow data

Seasonal and spatial variability in scaling, correlation and wavelet variance parameter of daily streamflow data were investigated using 56 gauging stations from five basins located in two different climate zones. Multifractal temporal scaling properties were detected using a multiplicative cascade model. The wavelet variance parameter yielded persistence properties of the streamflow time series. Seasonal variations were found to be significant in that winter and spring seasons where large‐scale frontal events are dominant showed higher long‐term correlations and less multifractality than did summer and fall seasons. Coherent spatial variations were apparent. The Neches River basin located in a subtropic humid climate zone exhibited high persistence and long‐term correlation as well as less multifractality as compared with other basins. It is found that larger drainage areas tend to have smaller multifractality and higher persistence structure, and this tendency becomes apparent in regions that receive large amounts of precipitation and decreases towards arid regions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatio-temporal variability of streamflow in the Yellow River: possible causes and implications

Abstract

The water shortage in the Yellow River, China, has been aggravated by rapid population growth and global climate changes. To identify the characteristics of streamflow change in the Yellow River, approximately 50 years of natural and observed streamflow data from 23 hydrological stations were examined. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests were used to detect trends and abrupt change points. The results show that both the natural and the observed streamflow in the Yellow River basin present downward trends from 1956 to 2008, and the decreasing rate of observed streamflow is generally faster than that of the natural streamflow. Larger drainage areas have higher declining rates, and the declining trends are intensified downstream within the mainstream. The possibility of abrupt changes in observed streamflow is higher than in natural streamflow, and streamflow series in the mainstream are more likely to change abruptly than those in the tributaries. In the mainstream, all the significant abrupt changes appear in the middle and latter half of the 1980s, but the abrupt changes occur somewhat earlier for observed streamflow than for natural streamflow. The significant abrupt change for the observed streamflow in the tributaries is almost isochronous with the natural streamflow and occurs from the 1970s to 1990s. It is implied that the slight reduction in precipitation is not the only direct reason for the streamflow variation. Other than the effects of climate change, land-use and land-cover changes are the main reasons for the natural streamflow change. Therefore, the increasing net water diversion by humans is responsible for the observed streamflow change. It is estimated that the influence of human activity on the declining streamflow is enhanced over time.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Miao, C.Y., Shi, W., Chen, X.H., and Yang, L., 2012 Miao, C.Y., Yang, L. and Chen, X.H. 2012. The vegetation cover dynamics (1982–2006) in different erosion regions of the Yellow River basin, China. Land Degradation and Development, 23(1): 62–71. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Spatio-temporal variability of streamflow in the Yellow River: possible causes and implications. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1355–1367.     

On the changes in long-term streamflow regimes in the North American Prairies

ABSTRACT

Climate change/variability accompanied by anthropogenic activities can alter the runoff response of landscapes. In this study we investigate the integrated impacts of precipitation change/variability and landscape changes, specifically wetland drainage practices, on streamflow regimes in wetland-dominated landscapes in the Assiniboine and Saskatchewan River basins of the North American Prairies. Precipitation and streamflow metrics were examined for gradual (trend type) and abrupt (shift type) changes using the modified Mann-Kendall trend test and a Bayesian change point detection methodology. Results of statistical analyses indicate that precipitation metrics did not experience statistically significant increasing or decreasing changes and there was no statistical evidence of streamflow regime change over the study area except for one of the smaller watersheds. The absence of widespread streamflow and precipitation changes suggests that wetland drainage did not lead to detectable changes in streamflow metrics over most of the Canadian portion of the Prairies between 1967 and 2007.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor None assigned     

Effect of forest recovery on summer streamflow in small forested watersheds,Northeastern China

The hydrological effect of forest recovery is receiving renewed interest globally because information on forest carbon–water relationship is critically needed to support carbon management through reforestation and sustainable water management. In Northeastern China, summer (June to August) streamflow accounts for about 50% of total annual streamflow and is vital to water supply and management in the region. Understanding how forest recovery may affect streamflow is important to both reforestation campaign and long‐term water sustainability. In this study, we analysed 33 years of summer hydrologic data (1970–2002) from two comparable small‐scale watersheds located in the Xiaoxing'anling, Northeastern China. Time series analysis and two graphic methods (double mass curve and flow duration curve) with statistical testing as well as long‐term data on forest cover changes and climate were used. Our results show that the significant streamflow reduction as a result of reforestation occurred when forest cover reached 70% or 10 years after planting. After forest cover reached 85%, water reduction became stabilized. The accumulative streamflow reduction in 2002 reached 8·61% of the total accumulative streamflow. Among those water reduced, high flows (from 5 to 25 percentiles) were mostly affected, demonstrating that northeastern forests have an important role in reducing high flows. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of climate change, reforestation and water resource management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting

This paper, the first in a series of two, employs the principle of maximum entropy (POME) via maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) to develop a univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting. Three cases of streamflow forecasting are investigated: forward forecasting, backward forecasting (or reconstruction) and intermittent forecasting (or filling in missing records). Application of the model is discussed in the second paper.     

Streamflow trends in Nepal

Abstract

This study presents the first comprehensive nationwide trend detection of streamflow in Nepal, a country that has been historically understudied despite its critical location as the southern pathway for most of the Himalayan snowpack melt and torrential seasonal monsoon rains. We applied Mann-Kendall and Sen's trend tests using trend-free pre-whitening and bootstrap approaches to two streamflow data sets to deal with serial and cross-correlation. The two data sets comprised 23–33 hydrometric stations with 31 years and more than 20 years of published data, respectively. The test on the 33 stations data set showed that 23% of the streamflow variables studied had statistically significant trends, evenly divided between upward and downward trends. Similarly, in the second, relatively smaller data set, 24% of variables exhibited trends, of which 41% were downward and 59% upward. The higher percentage of observed upward trends in pre-monsoon and winter seasonal average flow is noteworthy given the potential snowmelt contribution in many of the studied sites. Trends were mostly absent in stations draining the larger basins. However, some spatial patterns were seen in the observed trend directions, specifically, a downward trend in the Karnali-Mahakali River basin and an upward trend in the West Rapti River basin, as well as a nationwide absence of trend in the post-monsoon season.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Gautam, M.R. and Acharya, K., 2011. Streamflow trends in Nepal. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 344–357.     

Natural revegetation and afforestation in abandoned cropland areas: Hydrological trends and changes in Mediterranean mountains

Water resources availability is one of the main concerns for policy makers around the world in present and future management plans. In the Mediterranean basin, this concern is increased given the extreme variability in climate and the intrinsic aridity conditions. Water resources in the Mediterranean region depend mainly on surface and subsurface supply from mountain areas. Because evapotranspiration comprises a substantial portion of the water budget, recent land cover changes due to cropland abandonment may change transpiration (TRANS) and water supply. Therefore, land management plans must account for these potential hydrologic changes to guarantee water availability in the upcoming decades. Short-term changes to water yield have been shown to follow afforestation or natural revegetation, the main management strategies in abandoned cropland areas. Studies comparing long-term trends of these management practices, however, are scarce due to the lack of long-term hydrological data. In this study, we use the regional hydro-ecological simulation system (RHESSys), to analyse long-term changes and annual and seasonal trends in streamflow (STR) and transpiration following management of abandoned cropland areas. Annual mean values show significant differences between the three management scenarios for both streamflow and transpiration, while differences between climate scenarios are not significant. The Mann Kendall trend analysis shows significant changes to water yield compared to the situation before management. Depending on the total afforested area, afforestation could significantly decrease annual streamflow between 2.3%·decade⁻¹ and 5.9%·decade⁻¹ and increase annual transpiration between 1.1%·decade⁻¹ and 3.5%·decade⁻¹. These trends are attributed to changes during the first 30 years after management, while during the fourth and fifth decade, changes to water yield tend to stabilize or decrease. These results are substantial to optimize land management plans, ensuring sustainable hydrological and ecological ecosystem services.     

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on streamflow in Western Iran

The Middle East region, where arid and semi‐arid regions occupy most of the land, is extremely vulnerable to any natural or anthropogenic reductions in available water resources. Much of the observed interannual‐decadal variability in Middle Eastern streamflow is physically linked to a large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this work, the relationship between the NAO index and the seasonal and annual streamflows in the west of Iran was statistically examined during the last four decades. The correlations were constructed for two scenarios (with and without time lag). The associations between the annual and seasonal streamflows and the simultaneous NAO index were found to be poor and insignificant. The possibility of streamflow forecasting was also explored, and the results of lag correlations revealed that streamflow responses at the NAO signal with two and three seasons delays. The highest Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.379 was found between the spring NAO index and the autumn streamflow series at Taghsimab station, indicating that roughly 14% of the variance in the streamflow series is associated with NAO forcing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydro-climatic trends in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin,Ethiopia

Trends of the three hydro-meteorological variables precipitation, temperature and stream flow, represented by 13, 12, and 9 gauging stations, respectively, within the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin have been studied to support water management in the region. The Trends were evaluated over different time periods depending on data availability at the stations. The statistical Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests have been used to assess trends and change points respectively. The tests have been applied to mean annual, monthly, seasonal, 1- and 7-days annual minimum and maximum values for streamflow, while mean annual, monthly and seasonal timescales were applied to meteorological variables. The results are heterogeneous and depict statistically significant increasing/decreasing trends. Besides, it showed significant abrupt change of point upward/downward shift for streamflow and temperature time series. However, precipitation time series did not show any statistically significant trends in mean annual and seasonal scales across the examined stations.Increasing trends in temperature at different weather stations for the mean annual, rainy, dry and small rainy seasons are apparent. The mean temperature at Bahir Dar – typical station in the Lake Tana sub basin, has been increasing at the rate of about 0.5 °C/decade, 0.3 °C/decade in rainy season (June–September), 0.6 °C/decade in small rainy season (March–May), and 0.6 °C/decade in dry season (October–February). Other stations in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile show comparable results. Overall it is found that trends and change point times varied considerably across the stations and catchment to catchment. Identified significant trends can help to make better planning decisions for water management. However, the cause attributes to the observed changes in hydro-meteorological variables need further research. In particular the combined effects of land use/land cover change and climate variability on streamflow of Abay/Blue Nile basin and its tributaries needs to be understood better.     

Spatial and temporal variability of temperature,precipitation, and streamflow in upper Sang‐kan basin,China

Temporal streamflow variability in an inland hydrologic station and temporal trends and frequency changes at three weather stations in a semiarid river basin located in Loess Plateau, China, were detected by using linear regression, Mann–Kendall analysis, and wavelet transform methods. Double cumulative curve and ordered clustering were used to identify the hydrological periods of upper Sang‐kan (USK) basin between 1957 and 2012. The results indicate that (1) precipitation in the USK basin over the study period did not show any trend, while the temperature showed a significant increase; (2) streamflow flowing out of the USK basin indicated a significant decrease; (3) two distinct hydrological periods – the ‘natural period’ from 1957 to 1984 and the ‘human impact period’ from 1985 to 2012 – were present; and (4) the contributions of climate change and human activities to reduce the streamflow were 36.9% and 63.1% respectively. The results indicate that human activities may be contributing to a decrease in streamflow in the USK basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.