Real-time flood forecasting by relating local stage and remote discharge

Abstract

The rating curve model (RCM) proposed by Moramarco and co-authors is modified here for flood forecasting purposes without using rainfall information. The RCM is a simple approach for discharge assessment at a river site of interest based on relating the local recorded stage and the remote discharge monitored at an upstream gauged river site located some distance away. The proposed RCM for real-time application (RCM-RT), involves only two parameters and can be used for river reaches where significant lateral flows occur. The forecast lead time depends on the mean wave travel time of the reach. The model is found to be accurate for a long reach of the Po River (northern Italy) and for two branches of the Tiber River (central Italy) characterized by different intermediate drainage areas and wave travel times. Moreover, the assessment of the forecast uncertainty coming from the model parameters is investigated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the model capability to accurately forecast the exceedence of fixed hydrometric thresholds is analysed.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin     

Towards improved post‐processing of hydrologic forecast ensembles

Forecast ensembles of hydrological and hydrometeorologial variables are prone to various uncertainties arising from climatology, model structure and parameters, and initial conditions at the forecast date. Post‐processing methods are usually applied to adjust the mean and variance of the ensemble without any knowledge about the uncertainty sources. This study initially addresses the drawbacks of a commonly used statistical technique, quantile mapping (QM), in bias correction of hydrologic forecasts. Then, an auxiliary variable, the failure index (γ), is proposed to estimate the ineffectiveness of the post‐processing method based on the agreement of adjusted forecasts with corresponding observations during an analysis period prior to the forecast date. An alternative post‐processor based on copula functions is then introduced such that marginal distributions of observations and model simulations are combined to create a multivariate joint distribution. A set of 2500 hypothetical forecast ensembles with parametric marginal distributions of simulated and observed variables are post‐processed with both QM and the proposed multivariate post‐processor. Deterministic forecast skills show that the proposed copula‐based post‐processing is more effective than the QM method in improving the forecasts. It is found that the performance of QM is highly correlated with the failure index, unlike the multivariate post‐processor. In probabilistic metrics, the proposed multivariate post‐processor generally outperforms QM. Further evaluation of techniques is conducted for river flow forecast of Sprague River basin in southern Oregon. Results show that the multivariate post‐processor performs better than the QM technique; it reduces the ensemble spread and is a more reliable approach for improving the forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inorganic nitrogen retention in acid‐sensitive lakes in southern Norway and southern Ontario,Canada—a comparison of mass balance data with an empirical N retention model

In‐lake retention of inorganic nitrogen species (nitrate and ammonium) was estimated from mass balances in five acid‐sensitive lakes in southern Norway and eight in southern Ontario, Canada, to evaluate an empirical in‐lake N retention (R_N) model. This model is included in the First‐order Acidity Balance (FAB) model, which currently is used for calculation of critical acid loads and exceedances in many countries. To estimate in‐lake R_N, the FAB model uses a recommended mass transfer coefficient (S_N) of 5 m year⁻¹, which mainly is derived from NO₃⁻ mass balances in Canadian lakes. To date, the in‐lake R_N model has not been evaluated for large parts of Europe. At the Norwegian study sites receiving the highest N deposition (>120 meq m⁻² year⁻¹) the net in‐lake retention of inorganic N (TIN) exceeded the corresponding terrestrial retention by a factor of 1·1–2·6. Despite differences in N loading and hydrology at the Norwegian and Canadian sites, both the mean mass transfer coefficients for NO₃⁻ (S_NO3; 6·5 versus 5·6 m year⁻¹) and TIN (S_TIN; 7·9 versus 7·0 m year⁻¹) were of comparable magnitude. Both mean values and ranges of S_NO3 suggest that the default S_N value presently recommended for FAB model applications seems valid over a large range in N inputs and areal water loads (q_s). However, owing to the relatively few data available for lakes with high q_s values (15–150 m year⁻¹), it is recommended that more lakes within this range be included in future studies to obtain a more precise prediction of in‐lake N retention over a wide q_s gradient. Also, when considering that the FAB model treats all inorganic N leaching from a catchment as NO₃⁻, it seems reasonable to use a default S_TIN value instead of just S_NO3 when estimating in‐lake R_N. In that case, the in‐lake R_N presently calculated by the FAB model might be slightly underestimated. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatially distributed long‐term hydrologic simulation using a continuous SCS CN method‐based hybrid hydrologic model

A continuous Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) method that considers time‐varied SCS CN values was developed based on the original SCS CN method with a revised soil moisture accounting approach to estimate run‐off depth for long‐term discontinuous storm events. The method was applied to spatially distributed long‐term hydrologic simulation of rainfall‐run‐off flow with an underlying assumption for its spatial variability using a geographic information systems‐based spatially distributed Clark's unit hydrograph method (Distributed‐Clark; hybrid hydrologic model), which is a simple few parameter run‐off routing method for input of spatiotemporally varied run‐off depth, incorporating conditional unit hydrograph adoption for different run‐off precipitation depth‐based direct run‐off flow convolution. Case studies of spatially distributed long‐term (total of 6 years) hydrologic simulation for four river basins using daily NEXRAD quantitative precipitation estimations demonstrate overall performances of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (E_NS) 0.62, coefficient of determination (R²) 0.64, and percent bias 0.33% in direct run‐off and E_NS 0.71, R² 0.72, and percent bias 0.15% in total streamflow for model result comparison against observed streamflow. These results show better fit (improvement in E_NS of 42.0% and R² of 33.3% for total streamflow) than the same model using spatially averaged gauged rainfall. Incorporation of logic for conditional initial abstraction in a continuous SCS CN method, which can accommodate initial run‐off loss amounts based on previous rainfall, slightly enhances model simulation performance; both E_NS and R² increased by 1.4% for total streamflow in a 4‐year calibration period. A continuous SCS CN method‐based hybrid hydrologic model presented in this study is, therefore, potentially significant to improved implementation of long‐term hydrologic applications for spatially distributed rainfall‐run‐off generation and routing, as a relatively simple hydrologic modelling approach for the use of more reliable gridded types of quantitative precipitation estimations.     

Assessment of river flow with significant lateral inflow through reverse routing modeling

The discharge hydrograph estimation in rivers based on reverse routing modeling and using only water level data at two gauged sections is here extended to the most general case of significant lateral flow contribution, without needing to deploy rainfall–runoff procedures. The proposed methodology solves the Saint‐Venant equations in diffusive form also involving the lateral contribution using a “head‐driven” modeling approach where lateral inflow is assumed to be function of the water level at the tributary junction. The procedure allows to assess the discharge hydrograph at ends of a selected river reach with significant lateral inflow, starting from the stage recorded there and without needing rainfall data. Specifically, the MAST 1D hydraulic model is applied to solve the diffusive wave equation using the observed stage hydrograph at the upstream section as upstream boundary condition. The other required data are (a) the observed stage hydrograph at the downstream section, as benchmark for the parameter calibration, and (b) the bathymetry of the river reach, from the upstream section to a short distance after the downstream gauged section. The method is validated with different flood events observed in two river reaches with a significant intermediate basin, where reliable rating curves were available, selected along the Tiber River, in central Italy, and the Alzette River, in Luxembourg. Very good performance indices are found for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends and along the tributaries. The mean Nash‐Sutcliffe value (NS_q) at the channel ends of two rivers is found equal to 0.99 and 0.86 for the upstream and downstream sites, respectively. The procedure is also validated on a longer stretch of the Tiber River including three tributaries for which appreciable results are obtained in terms of NS_q for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends for three investigated flood events.     

Daily variability of river concentrations and fluxes: indicators based on the segmentation of the rating curve

The variability of water chemistry on a daily scale is rarely addressed due to the lack of records. Appropriate tools, such as typologies and dimensionless indicators, which permit comparisons between stations and between river materials, are missing. Such tools are developed here for daily concentrations (C), specific fluxes or yields (Y) and specific river flow (q). The data set includes 128 long‐term daily records, for suspended particulate matter (SPM), total dissolved solids (TDS), dissolved and total nutrients, totalling 1236 years of records. These 86 river basins (10³–10⁶ km²) cover a wide range of environmental conditions in semi‐arid and temperate regions. The segmentation—truncation of C–q rating curves into two parts at median flows (q₅₀) generates two exponents (b_50inf and b_50sup) that are different for 66% of the analysed rating curves. After segmentation, the analysis of records results in the definition of nine major C–q types combining concentrating, diluting or stable patterns, showing inflexions, chevron and U shapes. SPM and TDS are preferentially distributed among a few types, while dissolved and total nutrients are more widely distributed. Four dimensionless indicators of daily variability combine median (C₅₀, Y₅₀), extreme (C₉₉, Y₉₉) and flow‐weighted (C*, Y*) concentrations and yields (e.g. C₉₉/C₅₀, Y*/Y₅₀). They vary over two to four orders of magnitude in the analysed records, discriminating stations and river material. A second set of four indicators of relative variability [e.g. (Y*/Y₅₀)/(q*/q₅₀)], takes into account the daily flow variability, as expressed by q*/q₅₀ and q₉₉/q₅₀, which also vary over multiple orders of magnitude. The truncated exponent b_50sup is used to describe fluxes at higher flows accounting for 75% (TDS) to 97% (SPM) of interannual fluxes. It ranges from ? 0·61 to + 1·86 in the database. It can be regarded as the key amplificator (positive b_50sup) or reductor (negative b_50sup) of concentrations or yields variability. C₅₀, Y₅₀, b_50sup can also be estimated in discrete surveys, which provides a new perspective for quantifying and mapping water quality variability at daily scale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Depth‐dependent hydraulic conductivity distribution patterns of a streambed

Characterization of streambed hydraulic conductivity from the channel surface to a great depth below the channel surface can provide needed information for the determination of stream‐aquifer hydrologic connectedness, and it is also important to river restoration. However, knowledge on the streambed hydraulic conductivity for sediments 1 m below the channel surface is scarce. This study describes a method that was used to determine the distribution patterns of streambed hydraulic conductivity for sediments from channel surface to a depth of 15 m below. The method includes Geoprobe's direct‐push techniques and Permeameter tests. Direct‐push techniques were used to generate the electrical conductivity (EC) logs and to collect sequences of continuous sediment cores from river channels, as well as from the alluvial aquifer connected to the river. Permeameter tests on these sediment cores give the profiles of vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v) of the channel sediments and the aquifer materials. This method was applied to produce K_v profiles for a streambed and an alluvial aquifer in the Platte River Valley of Nebraska, USA. Comparison and statistical analysis of the K_v profiles from the river channel and from the proximate alluvial aquifer indicates a special pattern of K_v in the channel sediments. This depth‐dependent pattern of K_v distribution for the channel sediments is considered to be produced by hyporheic processes. This K_v‐distribution pattern implied that the effect of hyporheic processes on streambed hydraulic conductivity can reach the sediments about 9 m below the channel surface. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic performance and new design procedure for chevron‐braced frames

The paper is concerned with the seismic design of steel‐braced frames in which the braces are configured in a chevron pattern. According to EuroCode 8 (EC8), the behaviour factor q, which allows for the trade‐off between the strength and ductility, is set at 2.5 for chevron‐braced frames, while 6.5 is assigned for most ductile steel moment‐resisting frames. Strength deterioration in post‐buckling regime varies with the brace's slenderness, but EC8 adopts a unique q value irrespective of the brace slenderness. The study focuses on reevaluation of the q value adequate for the seismic design of chevron‐braced frames. The present EC8 method for the calculation of brace strength supplies significantly different elastic stiffnesses and actual strengths for different values of brace slenderness. A new method to estimate the strength of a chevron brace pair is proposed, in which the yield strength (for the brace in tension) and the post‐buckling strength (for the brace in compression) are considered. The new method ensures an identical elastic stiffness and a similar strength regardless of the brace slenderness. The advantage of the proposed method over the conventional EC8 method is demonstrated for the capacity of the proposed method to control the maximum inter‐storey drift. The q values adequate for the chevron‐braced frames are examined in reference to the maximum inter‐storey drifts sustained by most ductile moment‐resisting frames. When the proposed method is employed for strength calculation, the q value of 3.5 is found to be reasonable. It is notable that the proposed method does not require larger cross‐sections for the braces compared to the cross‐sections required for the present EC8 method. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the use of loss‐on‐ignition techniques to quantify fluvial particulate organic carbon

The fluvial flux of carbon (C) from terrestrial to marine environments represents an important component of the global C‐cycle, which can transfer C from the atmosphere to sedimentary storage. Fluvial fluxes of C are also an essential resource for freshwater ecosystems, critical for habitat heterogeneity and function. As such it is crucial that we are able to quantify this flux accurately. However, at present there are a number of different techniques used to quantify concentrations of fluvial C, and these techniques vary in their accuracy. In this article, we compare particulate organic carbon (POC) measurements derived from two commonly‐used techniques; a simple combustion and loss‐on‐ignition (LOI) technique, and an oxidative–combustion and carbon dioxide (CO₂) detection technique. The techniques were applied to water samples collected from 10 contrasting reference‐condition, temperate river ecosystems. The POC measurements derived from the LOI technique were up to 16 times higher (average four times higher), than those derived from the oxidative–combustion and CO₂ detection technique. This difference was highly variable both across the different river ecosystems and within each river ecosystem over time, suggesting that there is no simple way of converting the mass measured by LOI to estimates of fluvial POC. It is suggested that the difference in POC measured by these two techniques is a consequence of: (1) the loss of inorganic carbon at LOI combustion temperatures of > 425 °C, (2) the potential during the LOI combustion stage to lose hygroscopic and intercrystalline water, not completely driven off by the drying stage at temperatures of < 150 °C, and (3) the variable C content of fluvial organic matter, meaning that the simple application of a fixed correction factor to values obtained from the LOI technique may not be appropriate. These findings suggest that oxidative–combustion and CO₂ detection techniques are preferential for quantifying fluvial POC. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling Transient Streaming Potentials in Falling‐Head Permeameter Tests

We present transient streaming potential data collected during falling‐head permeameter tests performed on samples of two sands with different physical and chemical properties. The objective of the work is to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) and the electrokinetic coupling coefficient (C_l) of the sand samples. A semi‐empirical model based on the falling‐head permeameter flow model and electrokinetic coupling is used to analyze the streaming potential data and to estimate K and C_l. The values of K estimated from head data are used to validate the streaming potential method. Estimates of K from streaming potential data closely match those obtained from the associated head data, with less than 10% deviation. The electrokinetic coupling coefficient was estimated from streaming potential vs. (1) time and (2) head data for both sands. The results indicate that, within limits of experimental error, the values of C_l estimated by the two methods are essentially the same. The results of this work demonstrate that a temporal record of the streaming potential response in falling‐head permeameter tests can be used to estimate both K and C_l. They further indicate the potential for using transient streaming potential data as a proxy for hydraulic head in hydrogeology applications.     

Wind effects on sediment transport by raindrop‐impacted shallow flow: a wind‐tunnel study

In wind‐driven rains, wind velocity and direction are expected to affect not only energy input of rains but also shallow ?ow hydraulics by changing roughness induced by raindrop impacts with an angle on ?ow and the unidirectional splashes in the wind direction. A wind‐tunnel study under wind‐driven rains was conducted to determine the effects of horizontal wind velocity and direction on sediment transport by the raindrop‐impacted shallow ?ow. Windless rains and the rains driven by horizontal wind velocities of 6 m s^?1, 10 m s^?1, and 14 m s^?1 were applied to three agricultural soils packed into a 20 by 55 cm soil pan placed on both windward and leeward slopes of 7 per cent, 15 per cent, and 20 per cent. During each rainfall application, sediment and runoff samples were collected at 5‐min intervals at the bottom edge of the soil pan with wide‐mouth bottles and were determined gravimetrically. Based on the interrill erosion mechanics, kinetic energy ?ux (E_rn) as a rainfall parameter and product of unit discharge and slope in the form of q^bS^c_o as a ?ow parameter were used to explain the interactions between impact and ?ow parameters and sediment transport (q_s). The differential sediment transport rates occurred depending on the variation in raindrop trajectory and rain intensity with the wind velocity and direction. Flux of rain energy computed by combining the effects of wind on the velocity, frequency, and angle of raindrop impact reasonably explained the characteristics of wind‐driven rains and acceptably accounted for the differences in sediment delivery rates to the shallow ?ow transport (R₂ ≥ 0·78). Further analysis of the Pearson correlation coef?cients between E_rn and qS_o and q_s also showed that wind velocity and direction signi?cantly affected the hydraulics of the shallow ?ow. E_rn had a smaller correlation coef?cient with the q_s in windward slopes where not only reverse splashes but also reverse lateral raindrop stress with respect to the shallow ?ow direction occurred. However, E_rn was as much effective as qS_o in the sediment transport in the leeward slopes where advance splashes and advance lateral raindrop stress on the ?ow occurred. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A geomorphology‐based integrated stream–aquifer interaction model for semi‐gauged catchments

Many of the existing stream–aquifer interaction models available in the literature are very complex with limited applicability in semi‐gauged and ungauged catchments. In this study, to estimate the influent and effluent subsurface water fluxes under limited geo‐hydrometeorological data availability conditions, a simple stream–aquifer interaction model, namely, the variable parameter McCarthy–Muskingum (VPMM) hillslope‐storage Boussinesq (hsB) model, has been developed. This novel model couples the VPMM streamflow transport with the hsB groundwater flow transport modules in online mode. In this integrated model, the surface water–groundwater flux exchange process is modelled by the Darcian approach with the variable hydraulic heads between the river stage and groundwater table accounting for the rainfall forcing. Considering the exchange fluxes in the hyporheic zone and lateral overland flow contribution, this approach is field tested in a typical 48‐km stretch of the Brahmani River in eastern India to simulate the streamflow and its depth with the minimum Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 94% and 88%; the maximum root mean square error of 134 m³/s and 0.35 m; and the minimum index of agreement of 98% and 97%, respectively. This modelling approach could be very well utilized in data‐scarce world‐river basins to estimate the stream–aquifer exchange flux due to rainfall forcings.     

Non‐point source pollution estimation using a modified approach

Non‐point source (NPS) pollution from agricultural land is increasing exponentially in many countries of the world, including India. A modified approach based on the conservation of mass and reaction kinetics has been derived to estimate the inflow of non‐point source pollutants from a river reach. Two water quality variables, namely, nitrate (NO₃) and ortho‐phosphate (o‐PO₄), which are main contributors as non‐point source pollution, were monitored at four locations of River Kali, western Uttar Pradesh, India, and used for calibration and validation of the model. Extensive water quality sampling was done with a total of 576 field data sets collected during the period from March 1999 to February 2000. Remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) techniques were used to obtain land use/land cover of the region, digital elevation model (DEM), delineation of basin area contributing to non‐point source pollution at each sampling location and drainage map. The results obtained from a modified approach were compared with the existing mass‐balance equations and distributed modelling, and the performances of different equations were evaluated using error estimation viz. standard error, normal mean error, mean multiplicative error and correlation statistics. The developed model for the River Kali minimizes error estimates and improves correlation between observed and computed NPS loads. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) of snow‐avalanche impact ramparts in southern Norway: approaches,results and implications for landform age,dynamics and development

Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) was applied to the problem of dating the diachronous surfaces of five distal river‐bank boulder ramparts deposited by snow avalanches plunging into the Jostedøla and Sprongdøla rivers in the Jostedalsbreen region of southern Norway. Approaches to local high‐precision linear age calibration, which controlled in different ways for boulder roundness, were developed. The mean age (SHD_mean) and the maximum age (SHD_max) of surface boulders were estimated for whole ramparts, crests and distal fringes. Interpretation was further assisted by reference to R‐value distributions. SHD_mean ages (with 95% confidence intervals) ranged from 520 ± 270 years to 5375 ± 965 years, whereas SHD_max ages (expected to be exceeded by <5% of surface boulders) ranged from 675 to 9065 years. SHD ages from the Jostedøla ramparts tended to be older than those associated with the Sprongdøla, rampart crests were younger than the respective distal fringes, and use of relatively rounded boulders yielded more consistent SHD ages than angular boulders. The SHD_mean ages indicate differences in recent levels of snow‐avalanche activity between ramparts and provide insights into rampart dynamics as boulders are deposited on rampart crests and, in smaller numbers, on the distal fringes. SHD_max ages provide minimum age estimates of rampart age (i.e. the time elapsed since the ramparts began to form) and suggest that at least some of the ramparts have been developing since the early Holocene. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

IM‐based and EDP‐based decision models for the verification of the seismic collapse safety of buildings

Decision models for the verification of seismic collapse safety of buildings are introduced. The derivations are based on the concept of the acceptable (target) annual probability of collapse, whereas the decision making involves comparisons between seismic demand and capacity, which is familiar to engineering practitioners. Seismic demand, which corresponds to the design seismic action associated with a selected return period, can be expressed either in terms of an intensity measure (IM) or an engineering demand parameter (EDP). Seismic capacity, on the other hand, is defined by dividing the near‐collapse limit‐state IM or EDP by an appropriate risk‐targeted safety factor (γ _im or γ _edp ), which is the only safety factor used in the proposed decision model. Consequently, the seismic performance assessment of a building should be based on the best possible estimate. For a case study, it is shown that if the target collapse risk is set to 10^?4 (0.5% over a period of 50 years), and if the seismic demand corresponds to a return period of 475 years (10% over a period of 50 years), then it can be demonstrated that γ _im is approximately equal to 2.5 for very stiff buildings, whereas for buildings with long periods the value of γ _im can increase up to a value of approximately 5. The model using γ _edp is equal to that using γ _im only if it can be assumed that displacements, with consideration of nonlinear behavior, are equal to displacements from linear elastic analysis.     

A mass‐balance approach to estimate in‐stream processes in a large river

A mass‐balance approach was used to estimate in‐stream processes related to inorganic nitrogen species (NH₄⁺, NO₂^? and NO₃^?) in a large river characterized by highly variable hydrological conditions, the Garonne River (south‐west France). Studies were conducted in two consecutive reaches of 30 km located downstream of the Toulouse agglomeration (population 760 000, seventh order), impacted by modification of discharge regime and high nitrogen concentrations. The mass‐balance was calculated by two methods: the first is based on a variable residence time (VRT) simulated by a one‐dimensional (1‐D) hydraulic model; the second is a based on a calculation using constant residence time (CRT) evaluated according to hydrographic peaks. In the context of the study, removal of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) for a reach of 30 km is underestimated by 11% with the CRT method. In sub‐reaches, the discrepancy between the two methods led to a 50% overestimation of DIN removal in the upper reach (13 km) and a 43% underestimation in the lower reach (17 km) using the CRT method. The study highlights the importance of residence time determination when using modelling approaches in the assessment of whole stream processes in short‐duration mass‐balance for a large river under variable hydrological conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using Grain‐Size Distribution Methods for Estimation of Air Permeability

Knowledge of air permeability (k_a) at dry conditions is critical for the use of air flow models in porous media; however, it is usually difficult and time consuming to measure k_a at dry conditions. It is thus desirable to estimate k_a at dry conditions from other readily obtainable properties. In this study, the feasibility of using information derived from grain‐size distributions (GSDs) for estimating k_a at dry conditions was examined. Fourteen GSD‐based equations originally developed for estimating saturated hydraulic conductivity were tested using k_a measured at dry conditions in both undisturbed and disturbed river sediment samples. On average, the estimated k_a from all the equations, except for the method of Slichter, differed by less than ± 4 times from the measured k_a for both undisturbed and disturbed groups. In particular, for the two sediment groups, the results given by the methods of Terzaghi and Hazen‐modified were comparable to the measured k_a. In addition, two methods (e.g., Barr and Beyer) for the undisturbed samples and one method (e.g., Hazen‐original) for the undisturbed samples were also able to produce comparable k_a estimates. Moreover, after adjusting the values of the coefficient C in the GSD‐based equations, the estimation of k_a was significantly improved with the differences between the measured and estimated k_a less than ±4% on average (except for the method of Barr). As demonstrated by this study, GSD‐based equations may provide a promising and efficient way to estimate k_a at dry conditions.     

Using LM‐OSL of quartz to distinguish sediments derived from surface‐soil and channel erosion

This study describes the use of linearly modulated optically stimulated luminescence (LM‐OSL) to distinguish surface‐soil derived sediments from those derived from channel bank erosion. LM‐OSL signals from quartz extracted from 15 surface‐soil and five channel bank samples were analysed and compared to signals from samples collected from two downstream river sites. Discriminant analysis showed that the detrapping probabilities of fast, first slow and second slow components of the LM‐OSL signal can be used to differentiate between the samples collected from the channel bank and surface‐soil sources. We show that for each of these source end members these components are all normally distributed. These distributions are then used to estimate the relative contribution of surface‐soil derived and channel bank derived sediment to the river bed sediments. The results indicate that channel bank derived sediments dominate the sediment sources at both sites, with 90.1 ± 3% and 91.9 ± 1.9% contributions. These results are in agreement with a previous study which used measurements of ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb_ex fallout radionuclides to estimate the relative contribution from these two sources. This result shows that LM‐OSL may be a useful method, at least in the studied catchment, to estimate the relative contribution of surface soil and channel erosion to river sediments. However, further research in different settings is required to test the difference of OSL signals in distinguishing these sediment sources. And if generally acceptable, this technique may provide an alternative to the use of fallout radionuclides for source tracing. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flow resistance in gravel‐bed channels with large‐scale roughness

A previously published mixing length (ML) model for evaluating the Darcy–Weisbach friction factor for a large‐scale roughness condition (depth to sediment height ratio ranging from 1 to 4) is brie?y reviewed and modi?ed (MML). Then the MML model and a modi?ed drag (MD) model are experimentally tested using laboratory measurements carried out for gravel‐bed channels and large‐scale roughness condition. This analysis showed that the MML gives accurate estimates of the Darcy–Weisbach coef?cient and for Froude number values greater than 0·5 the MML model coincides with the ML one. Testing of the MD model shows limited accuracy in estimating ?ow resistance. Finally, the MML and MD models are compared with the performance of a quasi‐theoretical (QT) model deduced applying the P‐theorem of the dimensional analysis and the incomplete self‐similarity condition for the depth/sediment ratio and the Froude number. Using the experimental gravel‐bed data to calibrate the QT model, a constant value of the exponent of the Froude number is determined while two relationships are proposed for estimating the scale factor and the exponent of the depth/sediment ratio. This indirect estimate procedure of the coef?cients (b₀, b₁ and b₂) of the QT model can produce a negligible overestimation or underestimation of the friction factor. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing the Universal Soil Loss Equation‐MB equation in plots in Central and South Italy

Planning soil conservation strategies requires predictive techniques at event scale because a large percentage of soil loss over a long‐time period is due to relatively few large storms. Considering runoff is expected to improve soil loss predictions and allows relation of the process‐oriented approach with the empirical one, furthermore, the effects of detachment and transport on soil erosion processes can be distinguished by a runoff component. In this paper, the empirical model USLE‐MB (USLE‐M based), including a rainfall‐runoff erosivity factor in which the event rainfall erosivity index EI₃₀ of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) multiplies the runoff coefficient Q_R raised to an exponent b₁ > 1 is tested by the measurements carried out for the Masse (10 plots) and Sparacia (22 plots) experimental stations in Italy. For the Masse experimental station, an exponent b₁ > 1 was also estimated by tests carried out by a nozzle‐type rainfall simulator. For each experimental site in fallow conditions, the effect of the sample size of the plot soil loss measurements on the estimate of the b₁ coefficient was also studied by the extraction of a fixed number N of randomly obtained pairs of the normalized soil loss and runoff coefficient. The analysis showed that the variability of b₁ with N is low and that 350 pairs are sufficient to obtain a stable estimate of b₁. A total of 1,262 soil loss data were used to parameterize the model both locally and considering the two sites simultaneously. The b₁ exponent varied between the two sites (1.298–1.520), but using a common exponent (1.386) was possible. Using a common b₁ exponent for the two experimental areas increases the practical interest for the model and allows the estimation of a baseline component of the soil erodibility factor, which is representative of the at‐site soil intrinsic and quasi‐static properties. Development of a single USLE‐MB model appears possible, and sampling other sites is advisable to develop a single USLE‐MB model for general use.