The baseflow and storm flow hydrology of a precambrian shield headwater peatland

A hydrological investigation was conducted in a small headwater peatland located in the Experimental Lakes Area, north-western Ontario, Canada, to determine the subsurface and surface flow paths within the peatland, and between the peatland and an adjacent forested upland during baseflow and storm flow conditions. Distinct zones of groundwater recharge and discharge were observed within the peatland. These zones are similar to those found in much larger flow systems even though the peatland was only influenced by local groundwater flow. Groundwater emerging in seeps and flowing beneath the peatland sustained the surface wetness of the peatland and maintained a constant baseflow. The response of the peatland stream to summer rain events was controlled by peatland water table position when the basin was dry and antecedent moisture storage on the uplands when the basin was wet. The magnitude and timing of peak runoff during wet conditions were controlled by the degree of hydrological connectivity between the surrounding upland terrain and the peatland. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological functions of a peatland in a Boreal Plains catchment

Streamflow response in Boreal Plains catchments depends on hydrological connectivity between forested uplands, lakes, and peatlands, and their hydrogeomorphic setting. Expected future drying of the Boreal Plains ecozone is expected to reduce hydrological connectivity of landscape units. To better understand run‐off generation during dry periods, we determined whether peatland and groundwater connectivity can dampen expected future water deficits in forests and lakes. We studied Pine Fen Creek catchment in the Boreal Plains ecozone of central Saskatchewan, Canada, which has a large, valley‐bottom, terminally positioned peatland, two lakes, and forested uplands. A shorter intensive study permitted a more detailed partitioning of water inputs and outputs within the catchment during the low flow period, and an assessment of a 10‐year data set provided insight into the function of the peatland over a range of climate conditions. Using a water balance approach, we learned that two key processes regulate flow of Pine Fen Creek. The cumulative impact of landscape unit hydrological connectivity and the peatland's hydrological functional state were needed to understand catchment response. There was evidence of a run‐off threshold which, when crossed, changed the peatland's hydrological function from transmission to run‐off generation. Results also suggest the peatland should behave more often as a transmitter of groundwater than as a generator of run‐off under a drier climate future, owing to a reduced water supply.     

Assessing groundwater availability of the Maldives under future climate conditions

Groundwater resources of the Republic of the Maldives are threatened by a variety of factors including variable future rainfall patterns, continued population growth and associated pumping demands, rising sea level, and contamination from the land surface. This study assesses changes in groundwater availability due to variable rainfall patterns and sea level rise (SLR) in the coming decades, a key component of water resources management for the country. Using a suite of two‐dimensional density‐dependent groundwater flow models, time‐dependent thickness of the freshwater lens is simulated for a range of island sizes (200 to 1,100 m) during the time period of 2011 to 2050, with recharge to the freshwater lens calculated using rainfall patterns provided by general circulation models for the three distinct geographic regions of the Maldives. The effect of SLR on the freshwater lens is quantified using estimates of shoreline recession and associated decreases in island width. If rainfall is solely considered, groundwater availability is projected to increase, as lens thickness during the 2031–2050 time periods is slightly greater (1–5%) than during the 2011–2030 time period. However, including the impact of SLR indicates an overall decrease in lens thickness, with drastic decreases (60% to 100%) projected for small islands (200 m) and moderate decreases (12% to 14%) expected for 400 m islands, which accommodate one third of the national population. Similar methodologies can be used for other atoll island nations, such as the Republic of Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of Kiribati. For the Maldives, results from this study can be used in conjunction with population growth estimates to determine the feasibility of including groundwater in water resources planning and management for the country.     

Proglacial groundwater storage dynamics under climate change and glacier retreat

Proglacial aquifers are an important water store in glacierised mountain catchments that supplement meltwater-fed river flows and support freshwater ecosystems. Climate change and glacier retreat will perturb water storage in these aquifers, yet the climate-glacier-groundwater response cascade has rarely been studied and remains poorly understood. This study implements an integrated modelling approach that combines distributed glacio-hydrological and groundwater models with climate change projections to evaluate the evolution of groundwater storage dynamics and surface-groundwater exchanges in a temperate, glacierised catchment in Iceland. Focused infiltration along the meltwater-fed Virkisá River channel is found to be an important source of groundwater recharge and is projected to provide 14%–20% of total groundwater recharge by the 2080s. The simulations highlight a mechanism by which glacier retreat could inhibit river recharge in the future due to the loss of diurnal melt cycling in the runoff hydrograph. However, the evolution of proglacial groundwater level dynamics show considerable resilience to changes in river recharge and, instead, are driven by changes in the magnitude and seasonal timing of diffuse recharge from year-round rainfall. The majority of scenarios simulate an overall reduction in groundwater levels with a maximum 30-day average groundwater level reduction of 1 m. The simulations replicate observational studies of baseflow to the river, where up to 15% of the 30-day average river flow comes from groundwater outside of the melt season. This is forecast to reduce to 3%–8% by the 2080s due to increased contributions from rainfall and meltwater runoff. During the melt season, groundwater will continue to contribute 1%–3% of river flow despite significant reductions in meltwater runoff inputs. Therefore it is concluded that, in the proglacial region, groundwater will continue to provide only limited buffering of river flows as the glacier retreats.     

GCM-related uncertainty for river flows and inundation under climate change: the Inner Niger Delta

ABSTRACT

A semi-distributed hydrological model of the Niger River above and including the Inner Delta is developed. GCM-related uncertainty in climate change impacts are investigated using seven GCMs for a 2°C increase in global mean temperature, the hypothesised threshold of “dangerous” climate change. Declines in precipitation predominate, although some GCMs project increases for some sub-catchments, whilst PET increases for all scenarios. Inter-GCM uncertainty in projected precipitation is three to five times that of PET. With the exception of one GCM (HadGEM1), which projects a very small increase (3.9%), river inflows to the Delta decline. There is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of these reductions, ranging from 0.8% (HadCM3) to 52.7% (IPSL). Whilst flood extent for HadGEM1 increases (mean annual peak +1405 km²/+10.2%), for other GCMs it declines. These declines range from almost negligible changes to a 7903 km² (57.3%) reduction in the mean annual peak.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor not assigned     

Hydrological extremes in a southwestern Ontario river basin under future climate conditions/Extrêmes hydrologiques dans un basin versant du sud-ouest de l'Ontario sous conditions climatiques futures

Abstract

The global climate change may have serious impacts on the frequency, magnitude, location and duration of hydrological extremes. Changed hydrological extremes will have important implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood-plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of a changed climate on the timing and magnitude of hydrological extremes in a densely populated and urbanized river basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada. An ensemble of future climate scenarios is developed using a weather generating algorithm, linked with GCM outputs. These climate scenarios are then transformed into basin runoff by a semi-distributed hydrological model of the study area. The results show that future maximum river flows in the study area will be less extreme and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence, than they are at present. Low flows may become less extreme and variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence. According to the evaluated scenarios, climate change may have favourable impacts on the distribution of hydrological extremes in the study area.     

Modelling feedbacks between geomorphological and riparian vegetation responses under climate change in a Mediterranean context

Climate change is expected to alter temperatures and precipitation patterns, affecting river flows and hence riparian corridors. In this context we have explored the potential evolution of riparian corridors under a dryness gradient of flow regimes associated with climate change in a Mediterranean river. We have applied an advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic model incorporating interactions between hydro‐morphodynamics and vegetation. Five scenarios, representing drier conditions and more extreme events, and an additional reference scenario without climate change, have been designed and extended until the year 2100. The vegetation model assesses colonization, growth and mortality of Salicaceae species. We analysed the lower course of the Curueño River, a free flowing gravel bed river (NW Spain), as a representative case study of the Mediterranean region. Modelling results reveal that climate change will affect both channel morphology and riparian vegetation in terms of cover, age distribution and mortality. Reciprocal interactions between flow conditions and riparian species as bio‐engineers are predicted to promote channel narrowing, which becomes more pronounced as dryness increases. Reductions in seedling cover and increases in sapling and mature forest cover are predicted for all climate change scenarios compared with the reference scenario, and the suitable area for vegetation development declines and shifts towards lower floodplain elevations. Climate change also leads to younger vegetation becoming more subject to uprooting and flooding. The predicted reduction in suitable establishment areas and the narrowing of vegetated belts threatens the persistence of the current riparian community. This study highlights the usefulness of advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic modelling for assessing climate change effects on fluvial landscapes. It also illustrates the need to consider climate change in river management to identify appropriate adaptation measures for riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970–1993) and lake-level (1924–2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2–4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge was even more sensitive to aquifer hydraulic conductivity, especially in the lowland regions. These findings have important implications for paleoclimatic studies, because the hydrologic response of a surface-water body will vary across the watershed to a given climate signal.     

Simulation of river flow in Britain under climate change: Baseline performance and future seasonal changes

Climate change is likely to manifest in river flow changes across the globe, which could have wide-ranging consequences for society and the natural environment. A number of previous studies used the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) to investigate the potential impacts on river flows in Britain, but these projections were recently updated by the release of UKCP18, thus there is a need to update flow studies. Here, the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections are applied using a national-scale grid-based hydrological model, to investigate potential future changes in seasonal mean river flows across Great Britain. Analysis of hydrological model performance using baseline climate model data (1980–2010) shows relatively good agreement with use of observation-based data, particularly after application of a monthly precipitation bias-correction. Analysis of seasonal mean flow changes for two future time-slices (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) suggests large decreases in summer flows across the country (median −45% by 2050–2080), but possible increases in winter flows (median 9% by 2050–2080), especially in the north and west. Information on the potential range of flow changes using the latest projections is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies, and comparisons with previous projections can help update existing plans, although such comparisons are often not straightforward.     

Impact of anticipated climate change on direct groundwater recharge in a humid tropical basin based on a simple conceptual model

A simple conceptual semi‐distributed modelling approach for assessing the impacts of climate change on direct groundwater recharge in a humid tropical river basin is investigated. The study area is the Chaliyar river basin in the state of Kerala, India. Many factors affecting future groundwater recharge include decrease or increase in precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization and changes in land use. The model is based on the water‐balance concept and links the atmospheric and hydrogeologic parameters to different hydrologic processes. It estimates daily water‐table fluctuation and is calibrated and validated using 10 years of data. Data for the first 6 years (2000 to 2005) is used for model calibration, and data for the remaining four years (2006 to 2009) is used for validation. For assessing the impact of predicted climate change on groundwater recharge during the period 2071–2100, temperature and precipitation data in two post climate change scenarios, A2 and B2, were predicted using the Regional Climate Model (RCM), PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies). These data were then corrected for biases and used in a hydrologic model to predict groundwater recharge in the post climate change scenario. Due to lack of reliable data and proper knowledge as to the magnitude and extent of future climatic changes, it may not be possible to include all the possible effects quantitatively in groundwater recharge modelling. However, the study presents a scientific method to assess the impact of predicted climate change on groundwater recharge and would help engineers, hydrologists, administrators and planners to devise strategies for the efficient use as well as conservation of freshwater resources. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improvement and comparative assessment of a hydrological modelling approach on 20 catchments of various sizes under different climate conditions

Assessing water resources is an important issue, especially in the context of climatic changes. Although numerous hydrological models exist, new approaches are still under investigation. In this context, we propose a modelling approach based on the physical principle of least action. We present new hypotheses to develop the model further, to widen its application. The improved version of the model MODHYPMA was applied on 20 sub-catchments in Africa and the USA. Its performance was compared with two well-known lumped conceptual models, GR4J and HBV. The model could be successfully calibrated and validated. In calibration, GR4J performed better, while other models had similar performance. In validation, MODHYPMA and GR4J performed similarly and better than HBV. The parameter λ has medium sensitivity while parameters λ and TX have low sensitivity. The parameter uncertainty for MODHYPMA, analysed using the GLUE methodology, was higher during high flows but with good p and r factors.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Application of a watershed runoff model to North-east Pond River,Newfoundland: to study water balance and hydrological characteristics owing to atmospheric change

The hydrological sensitivities to long-term climate change of a watershed in Eastern Canada were analysed using a deterministic watershed runoff model developed to simulate watershed acidification. This model was modified to study atmospheric change effects in the watershed. Water balance modelling techniques, modified for assessing climate effects, were developed and tested for a watershed using atmospheric change scenarios from both state of the art general circulation models and a series of hypothetical scenarios. The model computed daily surface, inter- and groundwater flows from the watershed. The moisture, infiltration and recharge rate are also computed in the soil reservoirs. The thirty years of simulated data can be used to evaluate the effects of climatic change on soil moisture, recharge rate and surface and subsurface flow systems. The interaction between surface and subsurface water is discussed in relation to climate change. These hydrological results raise the possibility of major environmental and socioeconomic difficulties and have significant implications for future water resource planning and management. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on water availability in the Macquarie‐Castlereagh River Basin in Australia

The impact of future climate on runoff generation and the implications of these changes for management of water resources in a river basin are investigated by running these changes through catchment and river system models. Two conceptual daily rainfall‐runoff models are used to simulate runoff across the Macquarie‐Castlereagh region for historical (1895–2006) and future (～2030) climate based on outputs from 15 of the 23 IPCC AR4 GCMs for the A1B global warming scenario. The estimates of future runoff are used as inputs to the river system model. The mean annual historical rainfall averaged across the Macquarie‐Castlereagh region is 544 mm and the simulated runoff is 34 and 30 mm for SIMHYD and Sacramento rainfall‐runoff models, respectively. The mean annual future rainfall and runoff across the region are projected to decrease. The modelling results show a median estimate of a 5% reduction for SIMHYD (50% confidence interval ? 11 to + 7%) and a 7% reduction for Sacramento (50% confidence interval ? 15 to + 8%) in mean annual runoff under a ～2030 climate for the region. The results from the river system modelling indicate that under the ～2030 climate scenario, the median of general security and supplementary diversions are projected to decrease by 4% (50% confidence interval ? 10 to + 5%) and 2% (50% confidence interval ? 5 to + 3%) respectively for the SIMHYD inflows and 8% (50% confidence interval ? 17 to + 6%) and 5% (50% confidence interval ? 11 to + 3%) for the Sacramento inflows. The future annual and seasonal storage volumes for the Burrendong Dam and inflows at all major locations across the region are projected to be lower than the historical records. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water resources and climate change impact modelling on a daily time scale in the Peruvian Andes

Abstract

Estimating water resources is important for adequate water management in the future, but suitable data are often scarce. We estimated water resources in the Vilcanota basin (Peru) for the 1998–2009 period with the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH using: (a) raingauge measurements; (b) satellite rainfall estimates from the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); and (c) ERA-Interim re-analysis data. Multiplicative shift and quantile mapping were applied to post-process the TMPA estimates and ERA-Interim data. This resulted in improved low-flow simulations. High-flow simulations could only be improved with quantile mapping. Furthermore, we adopted temperature and rainfall anomalies obtained from three GCMs for three future periods to make estimations of climate change impacts (Delta-change approach) on water resources. Our results show more total runoff during the rainy season from January to March, and temporary storages indicate that less water will be available in this Andean region, which has an effect on water supply, especially during dry season.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten     

Prediction of climate change effects on the runoff regime of a forested catchment in northern Iran

ABSTRACT

The southern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran is bordered by a mountain range with forested catchments which are susceptible to droughts and floods. This paper examines possible changes to runoff patterns from one of these catchments in response to climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS rainfall–runoff model was used with downscaled future rainfall and temperature data from 13 global circulation models, and meteorological and hydrometrical data from the Casilian (or “Kassilian”) Catchment. Annual and seasonal predictions of runoff change for three future emissions scenarios were obtained, which suggest significantly higher spring rainfall with increased risk of flooding and significantly lower summer rainfall leading to a higher probability of drought. Flash floods arising from extreme rainfall may become more frequent, occurring at any time of year. These findings indicate a need for strategic planning of water resource management and mitigation measures for increasing flood hazards.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Prediction of groundwater‐induced flooding in a chalk aquifer for future climate change scenarios

Current climate change models for the southeast UK predict changing rainfall patterns, with increased incidence of extreme events. The chalk aquifer in the UK and northern France is susceptible to groundwater‐induced flooding under such conditions. In this methodological study we apply a frequency domain analysis approach to the chalk aquifer to derive a transfer function between effective rainfall and groundwater level from 7 years of monitoring data from the North Heath Barn site, near Brighton. The derived transfer function was calibrated and validated against monitoring data and then used to predict groundwater level for rainfall models for high, medium and low emission scenarios from the UKCP09 database. The derived transfer function is most closely comparable to the linear aquifer model, despite evidence for both matrix and fracture or karst water flow in the chalk, with transmissivity and unconfined storativity at the catchment scale of 1548 m² day^?1 and 1.6 × 10^?2. The application of the transfer function to UKCP09 rainfall data suggests that groundwater‐induced flooding may be about four times more frequent by 2040–2069 compared with 1961–1990 and seven times more frequent by 2070–2099. The model data also suggest an increase in the duration of groundwater minima relative to the reference period. Compared to deterministic modelling which requires detailed knowledge of aquifer heterogeneity and processes, the transfer function approach, although with limitations, is simpler, incorporating these factors into the analysis through frequency and phase coefficients, and thus may have the potential for groundwater risk assessment in other areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of the hydrological impacts of climate change on a restored floodplain

Thirty UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) scenarios are simulated using a MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model of a restored floodplain in eastern England. Annual precipitation exhibits uncertainty in direction of change. Extreme changes (10 and 90% probability) range between ?27 and +30%. The central probability projects small declines (相似文献   

Investigating the uncertainty and transferability of parameters in SWAT model under climate change

ABSTRACT

There is an implicit assumption in most work that the parameters calibrated based on observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. However, this might not be true due to parameter instability. This paper investigates the uncertainty and transferability of parameters in a hydrological model under climate change. Parameter transferability is investigated with three parameter sets identified for different climatic conditions, which are: wet, intermediate and dry. A parameter set based on the baseline period (1961–1990) is also investigated for comparison. For uncertainty analysis, a k-simulation set approach is proposed instead of employing the traditional optimization method which uses a single best-fit parameter set. The results show that the parameter set from the wet sub-period performs the best when transferred into wet climate condition, while the parameter set from the baseline period is the most appropriate when transferred into dry climate condition. The largest uncertainty of simulated daily high flows for 2011–2040 is from the parameter set trained in the dry sub-period, while that of simulated daily medium and low flows lies in the parameter set from the intermediate calibration sub-period. For annual changes in the future period, the uncertainty with the parameter set from the intermediate sub-period is the largest, followed by the wet sub-period and dry sub-period. Compared with high and medium flows/runoffs, the uncertainty of low flows/runoffs is much smaller for both simulated daily flows and annual runoffs. For seasonal runoffs, the largest uncertainty is from the intermediate sub-period, while the smallest is from the dry sub-period. Apart from that, the largest uncertainty can be observed for spring runoffs and the lowest one for autumn runoffs. Compared with the traditional optimization method, the k-simulation set approach shows many more advantages, particularly being able to provide uncertainty information to decision support for watershed management under climate change.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Vulnerability of water resources,vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions; however, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to the amount of change. This limits the prediction capacity of models to quantify impacts on water resources, vegetation productivity and erosion. This work circumvents this problem by analysing the sensitivity of these variables to varying degrees of temperature change (increased by up to 6·4 °C), rainfall (reduced by up to 40%) and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (increased by up to 100%). The SWAT watershed model was applied to 18 large watersheds in two contrasting regions of Portugal, one humid and one semi‐arid; incremental changes to climate variables were simulated using a stochastic weather generator. The main results indicate that water runoff, particularly subsurface runoff, is highly sensitive to these climate change trends (down by 80%). The biomass growth of most species showed a declining trend (wheat down by 40%), due to the negative impacts of increasing temperatures, dampened by higher CO₂ concentrations. Mediterranean species, however, showed a positive response to milder degrees of climate change. Changes to erosion depended on the interactions between the decline in surface runoff (driving erosion rates downward) and biomass growth (driving erosion rates upward). For the milder rainfall changes, soil erosion showed a significant increasing trend in wheat fields (up to 150% in the humid watersheds), well above the recovery capacity of the soil. Overall, the results indicate a shift of the humid watersheds to acquire semi‐arid characteristics, such as more irregular river flows and increasingly marginal conditions for agricultural production. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Natural flood management,land use and climate change trade-offs: the case of Tarland catchment,Scotland

A distributed hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) was applied to a mesoscale catchment to investigate natural flood management as a nonstructural approach to tackle flood risks from climate change. Peak flows were modelled using climate projections (UKCP09) combined with afforestation-based land-use change options. A significant increase in peak flows was modelled from climate change. Afforestation could reduce some of the increased flow, with greatest benefit from coniferous afforestation, especially replacing lowland farmland. Nevertheless, large-scale woodland expansion was required to maintain peak flows similar to present and beneficial effects were significantly reduced for larger “winter-type” extreme floods. Afforestation was also modelled to increase low-flow risks. Land-use scenarios showed catchment-scale trade-offs across multiple objectives meant “optimal” flood risk solutions were unlikely, especially for afforestation replacing lowland farmland. Hence, combined structural/nonstructural measures may be required in such situations, with integrated catchment management to synergize multiple objectives.