Estimation of daily space–time precipitation series for macroscale hydrological modelling

An important problem in modelling macroscale basins, especially for sparsely observed regions, is the lack of precipitation information. Alternatives to using straightforward interpolated surface observations include the utilization of more advanced interpolation techniques and the use of additional precipitation information from atmospheric models. Conventional and geostatistical methods are applied for optimal interpolation and assimilation of observed and model precipitation. Various time-series of daily areal precipitation distributions are produced and compared using not only an internal precipitation validation, but also an objective verification based on stream flow simulations. The Mackenzie River Basin in north-western Canada is used as the study area and hydrological simulations are carried out with the model SLURP. It was found that better interpolation techniques and the use of combined precipitation data can improve the hydrological simulations and that the enhancements are related to the relative size of the simulation units used. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The droughts of 1996–1997 and 2004–2005 in Amazonia: hydrological response in the river main‐stem

Severe hydrological droughts in the Amazon have generally been associated with strong El Niño events. More than 100 years of stage record at Manaus harbour confirms that minimum water levels generally coincide with intense warming in the tropical Pacific sea waters. During 2005, however, the Amazon experienced a severe drought which was not associated with an El Niño event. Unless what usually occurs during strong El Niño events, when negative rainfall anomalies usually affect central and eastern Amazon drainage basin; rainfall deficiencies in the drought of 2005 were spatially constrained to the west and southwest of the basin. In spite of this, discharge stations at the main‐stem recorded minimum water levels as low as those observed during the basin‐wide 1996–1997 El Niño‐related drought. The analysis of river discharges along the main‐stem and major tributaries during the drought of 2004–2005 revealed that the recession on major tributaries began almost simultaneously. This was not the case in the 1996–1997 drought, when above‐normal contribution of some tributaries for a short period during high water was crucial to partially counterbalance high discharge deficits of the other tributaries. Since time‐lagged contributions of major tributaries are fundamental to damp the extremes in the main‐stem, an almost coincident recession in almost all tributaries caused a rapid decrease in water discharges during the 2005 event. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diffraction‐limited imaging and beyond – the concept of super resolution‡

It is well‐known that experimental or numerical backpropagation of waves generated by a point‐source/‐scatterer will refocus on a diffraction‐limited spot with a size not smaller than half the wavelength. More recently, however, super‐resolution techniques have been introduced that apparently can overcome this fundamental physical limit. This paper provides a framework of understanding and analysing both diffraction‐limited imaging as well as super resolution. The resolution analysis presented in the first part of this paper unifies the different ideas of backpropagation and resolution known from the literature and provides an improved platform to understand the cause of diffraction‐limited imaging. It is demonstrated that the monochromatic resolution function consists of both causal and non‐causal parts even for ideal acquisition geometries. This is caused by the inherent properties of backpropagation not including the evanescent field contributions. As a consequence, only a diffraction‐limited focus can be obtained unless there are ideal acquisition surfaces and an infinite source‐frequency band. In the literature various attempts have been made to obtain images resolved beyond the classical diffraction limit, e.g., super resolution. The main direction of research has been to exploit the evanescent field components. However, this approach is not practical in case of seismic imaging in general since the evanescent waves are so weak – because of attenuation, they are masked by the noise. Alternatively, improvement of the image resolution of point like targets beyond the diffraction limit can apparently be obtained employing concepts adapted from conventional statistical multiple signal classification (MUSIC). The basis of this approach is the decomposition of the measurements into two orthogonal domains: signal and noise (nil) spaces. On comparison with Kirchhoff prestack migration this technique is showed to give superior results for monochromatic data. However, in case of random noise the super‐ resolution power breaks down when employing monochromatic data and a limited acquisition aperture. For such cases it also seems that when the source‐receiver lay out is less correlated, the use of a frequency band may restore the super‐resolution capability of the method.     

Arctic Mackenzie Delta channel planform evolution during 1983–2013 utilising Landsat data and hydrological time series

Arctic deltas, such as the Mackenzie Delta, are expected to face major climate change and increased human influence in the near future. Deltas are characterised by highly dynamic fluvial processes, and changing climate will cause considerable evolution of the riverine environment. The changes are difficult to predict with existing knowledge and data. This study quantified channel planform change of the Mackenzie Delta (1983–2013), analysing its temporal and spatial patterns. We addressed the main obstacle of research on large remote areas, the lack of data, by developing a unique work flow that utilised Landsat satellite imagery, hydrological time series, remote sensing‐based change analysis, and automatic vectorisation of channels. Our results indicate that the Mackenzie Delta experienced constant evolution but at a highly varying rate over the 30 years. The study demonstrates that the magnitude and duration of flood peaks and the presence of spring ice breakup floods determine the rate of Arctic delta planform change. Changing winter conditions and spring flood magnitudes may therefore affect the stability of Arctic deltas. However, no clear trends towards decreased recurrence or magnitude of spring floods or increased instability of the delta plain have yet been observed in the Mackenzie Delta. The delta plain was most dynamic at the beginning and at the end of the examined period, corresponding to intense flooding, whereas the rates of change were subtle during the low‐flood period 1994–2007. The largest changes have occurred along the wide Middle Channel and in the outermost delta. Relative to their size, however, smaller meandering channels have been highly dynamic. Hotspots of change in the delta plain are located in anastomosing and braiding channel segments and, at the local scale, in point bars and cut‐banks along meandering channels. Our study describes how Landsat satellite data can be utilised for advancing fluvial geomorphological research in remote areas. However, cloudiness in the delta restricts production of dense time series with simultaneous coverage of the whole area and requires manual preprocessing.     

Regression model for generating time series of daily precipitation amounts for climate change impact studies

The precipitation amounts on wet days at De Bilt (the Netherlands) are linked to temperature and surface air pressure through advanced regression techniques. Temperature is chosen as a covariate to use the model for generating synthetic time series of daily precipitation in a CO₂ induced warmer climate. The precipitation-temperature dependence can partly be ascribed to the phenomenon that warmer air can contain more moisture. Spline functions are introduced to reproduce the non-monotonous change of the mean daily precipitation amount with temperature. Because the model is non-linear and the variance of the errors depends on the expected response, an iteratively reweighted least-squares technique is needed to estimate the regression coefficients. A representative rainfall sequence for the situation of a systematic temperature rise is obtained by multiplying the precipitation amounts in the observed record with a temperature dependent factor based on a fitted regression model. For a temperature change of 3°C (reasonable guess for a doubled CO₂ climate according to the present-day general circulation models) this results in an increase in the annual average amount of 9% (20% in winter and 4% in summer). An extended model with both temperature and surface air pressure is presented which makes it possible to study the additional effects of a potential systematic change in surface air pressure on precipitation.     

Effects of the Three Gorges Reservoir on the hydrological droughts at the downstream Yichang station during 2003–2011

Since the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was put into operation in June 2003, the effects of the TGR on downstream hydrology and water resources have become the focus of public attention. This article examines the effects of the TGR on the hydrological droughts at the downstream Yichang hydrological station during 2003–2011. The two‐parameter monthly water balance model was used to generate the monthly discharges at the Yichang station for the period of 2003–2011 to represent the unregulated flow regime and thus to provide a comparison benchmark for the observed flow series at the Yichang station after the operation of the TGR. To provide a reference series for the observed monthly discharge series of the entire study period of 1951–2011, we constructed the naturalized monthly discharge series at the Yichang station by joining the observed monthly discharge at the Yichang station for the period of 1951–2002 and the two‐parameter monthly water balance simulated monthly runoff at the Yichang station for the period of 2003–2011. For both the observed and naturalized monthly discharge series of 1951–2011, the hydrological drought index series were calculated using the standardized streamflow index method. By comparing the drought indices of these two monthly discharge series, we investigated the effects of the TGR on the hydrological droughts at the downstream Yichang station during 2003–2011. The results show that the hydrological droughts at the downstream Yichang station are slightly aggravated by the TGR's initial operation from 2003 to 2011. The river flow reduction at the Yichang station after impoundment of the TGR might account for the downstream drought aggravation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the testing of fully integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models

Studies employing integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models (ISSHMs) have utilized a variety of test cases to demonstrate model accuracy and consistency between codes. Here, we review the current state of ISSHM testing and evaluate the most popular ISSHM test cases by comparing the hydrodynamic processes simulated in each case to the processes found in well‐characterized, real‐world catchments and by comparing their general attributes to those of successful benchmark problems from other fields of hydrogeology. The review reveals that (1) ISSHM testing and intercode comparison have not adopted specific test cases consistently; (2) despite the wide range of ISSHM metrics available for model testing, only two model performance diagnostics are typically adopted: the catchment outflow hydrograph and the catchment water balance; (3) in intercode comparisons, model performance is usually judged by evaluating only one performance diagnostic: the catchment outflow hydrograph; and (4) ISSHM test cases evaluate a small number of hydrodynamic processes that are largely uniform across the model domain, representing a limited selection of the processes of interest in well‐characterized, real‐world catchments. ISSHM testing would benefit from more intercode comparisons using a consistent set of test cases, aimed at evaluating more catchment processes (e.g. flooding) and using a wider range of simulation diagnostics (e.g. pressure head distributions). To achieve this, a suite of test case variations is required to capture the relevant catchment processes. Finally, there is a need for additional ISSHM test problems that compare model predictions with hydrological observations from intensively monitored field sites and controlled laboratory experiments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic–conceptual analysis of near‐surface hydrological response

The stochastic–conceptual rainfall–runoff simulator (SCRRS) developed by R. A. Freeze in 1980 was used in this study to demonstrate quantitatively the interplay of the factors that control the occurrence of overland flow by the Horton and Dunne mechanisms. The simulation domain and input data for the SCRRS simulations reported here were abstracted from the R‐5 catchment (Chickasha, OK) data sets. The results illustrate that the identification of a dominant hydrological response process may not be as simple as a singular Horton or Dunne characterization. The SCRRS simulations show that the Horton and Dunne processes can (i) occur simultaneously at different locations during a given rainfall event, (ii) change from one process to the other with time depending on the characteristics of the rainfall event, and (iii) be strongly dependent on the initial conditions. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Microseismic feasibility studies – assessing the probability of success of monitoring projects

In this paper we present a workflow for microseismic feasibility studies that allows a thorough assessment of the probability of success of the monitoring project to be made. The workflow includes the following elements: assessment of the value of information to establish the business case; identification of hardware options to investigate deployment options; survey of analogue cases to confirm the do‐ability of the project; modelling of event location errors and detectability to establish the most favourable array geometry; generation of full waveform synthetics to anticipate undesired seismic features. A study comprising all these elements provides the reference frame for discussions with service companies, limiting misunderstandings and avoiding missed opportunities.     

How to improve the representation of hydrological processes in SWAT for a lowland catchment – temporal analysis of parameter sensitivity and model performance

Model diagnostic analyses help to improve the understanding of hydrological processes and their representation in hydrological models. A detailed temporal analysis detects periods of poor model performance and model components with potential for model improvements, which cannot be found by analysing the whole discharge time series. In this study, we aim to improve the understanding of hydrological processes by investigating the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity and of model performance for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model applied to the Treene lowland catchment in Northern Germany. The temporal analysis shows that the parameter sensitivity varies temporally with high sensitivity for three groundwater parameters (groundwater time delay, baseflow recession constant and aquifer fraction coefficient) and one evaporation parameter (soil evaporation compensation factor). Whereas the soil evaporation compensation factor dominates in baseflow and resaturation periods, groundwater time delay, baseflow recession constant and aquifer fraction coefficient are dominant in the peak and recession phases. The temporal analysis of model performance identifies three clusters with different model performances, which can be related to different phases of the hydrograph. The lowest performance, when comparing six performance measures, is detected for the baseflow cluster. A spatially distributed analysis for six hydrological stations within the Treene catchment shows similar results for all stations. The linkage of periods with poor model performance to the dominant model components in these phases and with the related hydrological processes shows that the groundwater module has the highest potential for improvement. This temporal diagnostic analysis enhances the understanding of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and of the dominant hydrological processes in the lowland catchment. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alternative climate data sources for distributed hydrological modelling on a daily time step

Two major criteria in choosing climate data for use in hydrological modelling are the period of record of the data set and the proximity of the collection platform(s) to the basin under study. Conventional data sets are derived from weather stations; however, in many cases there are no weather stations sufficiently close to a basin to be representative of climate conditions in that basin. In addition, it is often the case either that the period of record for the weather station(s) does not cover the period of the proposed simulation or that there are gaps in the data. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to investigate alternative climate data sources for use in hydrological modelling and to develop a protocol for creating hydrological data sets that are spatially and temporally harmonized. The methods we used for constructing daily, spatially distributed, climatic data sets of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, and relative humidity are described. The model used in this study was the Soil and Water Assessment Tool implemented on the Mimbres River Basin located in southwestern New Mexico, USA, for the period 2003–2006. Our hydrological simulations showed that two events in January and February 2005 were missed, while an event in August 2006 was well simulated. We have also investigated the usefulness of several other precipitation data sets and compared the simulation results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Controlling sediment and phosphorus transfer to receiving waters – A strategic management perspective for England and Wales

The adverse ecological effects of elevated levels of phosphorus (P) and fine sediment (termed silt) in surface waters are a major environmental issue both nationally and internationally. Increasingly, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) will provide the basis for the integrated management of European waters, but there is a more immediate need for action to safeguard designated wildlife sites from the effects of eutrophication and siltation. We outline the policy drivers behind the control of these pollution problems, the nature and extent of ecological risks and approaches to target-based management within catchments. Tackling diffuse sources of P and silt requires accurate apportionment of local sources and contributing areas, and integration of practical action with the development of an improved quantitative understanding of the management changes needed in catchments to meet environmental objectives. Such an approach can be used to refine policies on land-based emissions of these pollutants and operational strategies for control. The critical role of catchment appraisal through modelling within this approach is stressed. Management measures to control agricultural sources of P and silt will also help to address other key catchment management objectives (flood risk management, water resource management, terrestrial and wetland habitat restoration). Climate change predictions indicate that the need for integrated catchment management, to increase the resilience of catchments, wildlife and people to extremes of weather conditions (drought and flood) and temperature trends, has never been greater.     

The Daily Erosion Project – daily estimates of water runoff,soil detachment,and erosion

Water runoff and sediment transport from agricultural uplands are substantial threats to water quality and sustained crop production. To improve soil and water resources, farmers, conservationists, and policy‐makers must understand how landforms, soil types, farming practices, and rainfall interact with water runoff and soil erosion processes. To that end, the Iowa Daily Erosion Project (IDEP) was designed and implemented in 2003 to inventory these factors across Iowa in the United States. IDEP utilized the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) soil erosion model along with radar‐derived precipitation data and government‐provided slope, soil, and management information to produce daily estimates of soil erosion and runoff at the township scale (93 km² [36 mi²]). Improved national databases and evolving remote sensing technology now permit the derivation of slope, soil, and field‐level management inputs for WEPP. These remotely sensed parameters, along with more detailed meteorological data, now drive daily WEPP hillslope soil erosion and water runoff estimates at the small watershed scale, approximately 90 km² (35 mi²), across sections of multiple Midwest states. The revisions constitute a substantial improvement as more realistic field conditions are reflected, more detailed weather data are utilized, hill slope sampling density is an order of magnitude greater, and results are aggregated based on surface hydrology enabling further watershed research and analysis. Considering these improvements and the expansion of the project beyond Iowa it was renamed the Daily Erosion Project (DEP). Statistical and comparative evaluations of soil erosion simulations indicate that the sampling density is adequate and the results are defendable. The modeling framework developed is readily adaptable to other regions given suitable inputs. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.