Validation of ship manoeuvring models using metamodels

This paper describes how simplified auxiliary models—metamodels—can be used to create benchmarks for validating ship manoeuvring simulation models. A metamodel represents ship performance for a limited range of parameters, such as rudder angles and surge velocity. In contrast to traditional system identification methods, metamodels are identified from multiple trial recordings, each containing data on the ship’s inherent dynamics (similar for all trials) and random disturbances such as environmental effects and slightly different loading conditions. Thus, metamodels can be used to obtain these essential data, where simple averaging is not possible. In addition, metamodels are used to represent a ship’s behaviour and not to obtain physical insights into ship dynamics. The experimental trials used for the identification of metamodels can be found in in-service recorded data. After the metamodel is identified, it is used to simulate trials without substantial deviations from the ship state parameters used for the identification. Subsequently, the predictions of the metamodels are compared with the predictions of a tested manoeuvring simulation model. We present two case studies to demonstrate the application of metamodels for moderate turning motions of two ships.     

Validation of ADEOS-II GLI ocean color products using in-situ observations

The Global Imager (GLI) aboard the Advanced Earth Observing Satellite-II (ADEOS-II) made global observations from 2 April 2003 to 24 October 2003. In cooperation with several institutes and scientists, we obtained quality controlled match-ups between GLI products and in-situ data, 116 for chlorophyll-a concentration (CHLA), 249 for normalized water-leaving radiance (nLw) at 443 nm, and 201 for aerosol optical thickness at 865 nm (Tau_865) and Angstrom exponent between 520 and 865 nm (Angstrom). We evaluated the GLI ocean color products and investigated the causes of errors using the match-ups. The median absolute percentage differences (MedPD) between GLI and in-situ data were 14.1–35.7% for nLws at 380–565 nm, 52.5–74.8% nLws at 625–680 nm, 47.6% for Tau_865, 46.2% for Angstrom, and 46.6% for CHLA, values that are comparable to the ocean-color products of other sensors. We found that some errors in GLI products are correlated with observational conditions; nLw values were underestimated when nLw at 680 nm was high, CHLA was underestimated in absorptive aerosol conditions, and Tau_865 was overestimated in sunglint regions. The error correlations indicate that we need to improve the retrievals of the optical properties of absorptive aerosols and seawater and sea surface reflection for further applications, including coastal monitoring and the combined use of products from multiple sensors.     

Biogeochemical climatologies in the Ross Sea, Antarctica: seasonal patterns of nutrients and biomass

The seasonal patterns of nutrient (nitrate and silicic acid) and chlorophyll distributions in the Ross Sea are formulated by two independent methods. The first procedure compiles all available data from cruises from 1970 to the present and generates a three-dimensional grid for the months from November through February using an iterative difference-correction scheme. The second method uses a three-dimensional circulation model and the phytoplankton standing stock climatology to investigate the effects of currents and phytoplankton uptake on nutrient distributions. The two approaches produced similar results, although the circulation model produced distributions that were more variable in space due to its finer resolution. The nutrient distributions were characterized by elevated concentrations in early spring and gradual reductions to ca. 15 and 40 μM (nitrate and silicic acid, respectively) in summer. Nutrient depletion did not occur despite the favorable growth conditions (elevated macronutrient concentrations, strong vertical stratification) in summer, suggesting that an alternative limitation (such as by dissolved iron concentrations) occurs. Chlorophyll concentrations reached ca. 6 μg l⁻¹ in December and declined thereafter. Seasonal primary production calculated from the nitrate deficits and the circulation model suggested that production was ca. 73 g C m⁻², slightly lower but similar to other estimates using independent methods. Using the nutrient climatology, losses (vertical flux plus respiration) through Feb. 15 from the upper 100 m were ca. 50% of the seasonal production, and the rest of the organic production was removed after that date. Results also suggest that carbon export from the surface layer may vary significantly in space and time.     

北极中央区海冰密集度与云量相关性分析

本文使用海冰密集度以及低云、中云、高云的日平均数据,借助滑动相关分析方法,研究了北极中央区海冰密集度与云量之间的相关性,分析了海冰与云的相互作用机制。研究表明,在春季海冰融化季节(4、5月)、秋季海冰冻结季节(10、11月),低云与海冰密集度之间表现为较好的负相关,表明在这段时间内冰区海面蒸发强烈,对低云的形成有重要贡献。在10月和11月,中云与海冰密集度也有很好的负相关,表明秋季低云可以通过抬升形成中云。高云与海冰密集度之间并没有明显的相关性,可能原因:一方面海冰的空间分布对高云无影响,另一方面,高云主要影响到达的短波辐射,从而影响海冰的融化和冻结速度,与海冰厚度有直接显著的关系,而与海冰密集度的关系不明显。此外,在海冰密集度与低云存在较好负相关的情况下会出现某些年份相关性不好的情况,我们的研究发现这是北极中央区与周边海区发生了海冰交换或云交换的结果。     

The role of sulfate aerosol in the formation of cloudiness over the sea

We estimate the impact of sulfate aerosols on cloudiness formation over the sea in the middle troposphere and the involvement of these particles in the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in the lower stratosphere. The first of these problems is solved using a combined model of moist convection and the formation of cloudiness and sulfate aerosols in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the sea, incorporating natural emissions of sulfur-containing compounds. We have found that a significant source of condensation nuclei in the troposphere is the photochemical transformation of biogenic dimethyl sulfide (in addition to NaCl). The results of numerical experiments indicate that the absence of sulfate aerosols hinders the cloudiness formation over the sea in the middle and upper troposphere. The problem of sulfate aerosol involvement in the formation of supercooled ternary solutions (STSs) (PSC Type Ib) in the lower stratosphere is solved using a mathematical model of global transport of multicomponent gas pollutants and aerosols in the atmosphere. Using the combined model, numerical experiments were performed for the winter season in both hemispheres. Sulfate aerosols were found to really participate in the formation of STS particles. Without their participation, the formation of STS particles in the lower stratosphere would be hindered. We present the results of numerical calculations and discuss the distribution of concentrations of gaseous nitric and sulfuric acids, as well as mass concentrations of these components in STS particles.     

Penetration of visible solar radiation in waters of the Barents Sea depending on cloudiness and coccolithophore blooms

Based on satellite and in situ data, we quantitatively estimated the penetration of PAR (photosynthetically available solar radiation in the visible spectral range of 400–700 nm) into waters of the central Barents Sea in the summer seasons of 2014–2016. The effects of cloudiness and coccolithophore blooms on the incidence and penetration of PAR was examined. These blooms occur in the Barents Sea almost every year. We estimated the impact of visible solar radiation on the SST against a background of incoming warmer waters of the Norwegian Current and established that the PAR impact is the most pronounced under clear sky conditions in July and August.     

积雪密度演变对北极积雪深度模拟的影响

积雪具有复杂的时空分布,在高纬度地区的气−冰−海耦合系统中扮演了重要的角色。准确的积雪质量平衡计算可以帮助我们更好地理解海冰演变过程以及极区冰雪与大气之间的相互作用。雪密度是影响积雪质量平衡众多因素中的重要因子。现有的一维高分辨率冰雪热力学模型（如HIGHTSI）中,使用常数块体雪密度均值将降雪雪水当量转化为积雪深度。本文参考拉格朗日冰上积雪模型（SnowModel-LG）模式对积雪分层压实的处理,简化为新、旧两个雪层,并在质量守恒条件下同时考虑新、旧雪层深度对压实增密的响应,将该物理过程加入HIGHTSI模式中。利用ERA-Interim再分析数据作为大气强迫,针对北极15个冰质量平衡浮标沿其漂移轨迹模拟了降雪积累期海冰表面雪密度变化对积雪深度变化的影响,在原HIGHTSI设置下分别采用定常块体雪密度均值330 kg/m³（T1试验）、接近实际的常数新雪密度200 kg/m³（T2试验）以及改进后框架下新、旧雪层随时间压实增密的雪密度（T3试验）计算积雪深度,并将模拟结果与浮标观测进行对比。结果表明,本文改进的算法对雪密度变化的处理更为合理,且能较好地再现积雪深度的变化;考虑新、旧雪层深度对压实增密的响应能较好地避免以较低的降雪密度持续过度积累,以浮标观测为标准,分层积雪密度压实计算得到的平均绝对误差相对T2减小了5 cm。     

The response of cloudiness in the Atlantic-European section to the interannual variability of the North Atlantic Oscillations

The paper discusses the conditions corresponding to the largest and smallest North Atlantic Oscillations (NAOs). It is shown that in winter, when NAOs are at a minimum, the number of cyclones over the Black Sea increases. At the same time, cloudiness in the Atlantic-European section becomes heavier, compared with the largest NAO. Heavy cloudiness over the Balkan and Karpaty mountains, with NAO at a minimum, may imply the greater likelihood of Balkan cyclones’ penetration into the Black Sea region. The mechanism responsible for the generation of maximum (minimum) cloudiness in the Atlantic-European section is discussed. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Validation of NCEP and OAFlux air-sea heat fluxes using observations from a Black Pearl wave glider

Latent and sensible heat fluxes based on observations from a Black Pearl wave glider were estimated along the main stream of the Kuroshio Current from the East China Sea to the east coast of Japan, from December 2018 to January 2019. It is found that the data obtained by the wave glider were comparable to the sea surface temperature data from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis and the wind field data from WindSat. The Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment 3.0 (COARE 3.0) algorithm was used to calculate the change in air-sea turbulent heat flux along the Kuroshio. The averaged latent heat flux (LHF) and sensible heat flux (SHF) were 235 W/m2 and 134 W/m2, respectively, and the values in the Kuroshio were significant larger than those in the East China Sea. The LHF and SHF obtained from Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes for the Global Oceans (OAFlux) were closer to those measured by the wave glider than those obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis products. The maximum deviation occurred in the East China Sea and the recirculation zone of the Kuroshio (deviation of SHF >200 W/m2; deviation of LHF >400 W/m2). This indicates that the NCEP and OAFlux products have large biases in areas with complex circulation. The wave glider has great potential to observe air-sea heat fluxes with a complex circulation structure.     

利用一种改进的算法对中国高分三号同极化SAR图像反演的有效波高的验证

Chinese Gaofen-3(GF-3) is the first civilian satellite to carry C-band(5.3 GHz) synthetic aperture radar(SAR).During the period of August 2016 to December 2017, 1 523 GF-3 SAR images acquired in quad-polarization(vertical-vertical(VV), horizontal-horizontal(HH), vertical-horizontal(VH), and horizontal-vertical(HV)) mode were recorded, mostly around China's seas. In our previous study, the root mean square error(RMSE) of significant wave height(SWH) was found to be around 0.58 m when compared with retrieval results from a few GF-3 SAR images in co-polarization(VV and HH) with moored measurements by using an empirical algorithm CSAR_WAVE. We collected a number of sub-scenes from these 1 523 images in the co-polarization channel,which were collocated with wind and SWH data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) reanalysis field at a 0.125° grid. Through the collected dataset, an improved empirical wave retrieval algorithm for GF-3 SAR in co-polarization was tuned, herein denoted as CSAR_WAVE2. An additional 92 GF-3 SAR images were implemented in order to validate CSAR_WAVE2 against SWH from altimeter Jason-2, showing an about 0.52 m RMSE of SWH for co-polarization GF-3 SAR. Therefore, we conclude that the proposed empirical algorithm has a good performance for wave retrieval from GF-3 SAR images in co-polarization.     

Formation of cloud microstructure during hygroscopic seeding

The evolution of cloud microstructure initiated by hygroscopic seeding is studied on the basis of numerical simulation of cloud formation in the initial stage of condensation. The influence of both physicochemical properties of atmospheric aerosol and atmospheric conditions controlling the cloud type on the microstructure of a developing cloud (without hygroscopic seeding) is analyzed. It is shown that cloud seeding with additional particles whose sizes exceed the characteristic size of atmospheric condensation nuclei leads to a decrease in the concentration of cloud droplets and an increase in their sizes. This result of cloud seeding represents a positive effect for stimulation of precipitation from convective clouds. It is shown that this positive effect is achieved if there are some relationships between the parameters characterizing the hygroscopic particles and the atmospheric conditions. In particular, the maximum effect of action can be achieved at some optimal concentration of seeded particles. The decrease in the concentration of cloud droplets because of hygroscopic seeding is compared to the results of numerical simulations performed by other authors with allowance for coagulation processes in clouds. It is shown that this decrease can serve as an estimate for the effectiveness of hygroscopic seeding as a means for artificial intensification of precipitation from convective clouds.     

Validation of turbulence closure parameterisations for stably stratified flows using the PROVESS turbulence measurements in the North Sea

A number of parameterisations for the simulation of mixing processes in the thermocline are compared and tested against the microstructure data of the PROVESS campaigns, conducted in the northern part of the North Sea during the autumn of 1998. The transport term in the turbulent kinetic energy equation is parameterised via the introduction of a third stability function S_k for turbulent energy diffusion. The formulations are compared with a simpler scheme based upon limiting conditions for turbulence variables. Improved results are obtained with a new form of S_k. The best agreement is, however, found with the simpler limiting scheme. This is explained in terms of a turbulence length scale theory for stably stratified turbulence. In agreement with previous laboratory and ocean data it is found that the ratios of the Thorpe and Kolmogorov scales to the Ozmidov length scale approach critical limiting values in the thermocline. The first of these conditions is satisfied when limiting conditions are implemented into the scheme, providing the necessary minimum value for the dissipation rate, whereas the schemes without limiting conditions fail to produce this critical ratio. The basic reason for this failure is that the Thorpe scale is overestimated, which is shown to be connected to an even larger overprediction of the dissipation rate of temperature variance. To investigate the impact of non-resolved advective processes and salinity stratification on the turbulence predictions, additional numerical experiments were conducted using a simple scheme for data assimilation. The best agreement is found again with the limiting scheme, which is able to make reasonable predictions for the dissipation rate without knowing the detailed shape of the mean stratification profile. It is shown that advective transport due to tidally and wind-driven motions has a non-negligible impact on vertical mixing. This is seen in the data and the models by periodic enhancements of turbulent mixing inside the thermocline.     

渤海模型冰运动特征的现场观测研究

Sea ice drift is mainly controlled by ocean currents, local wind, and internal ice stress. Information on sea ice motion, especially in situ synchronous observation of an ice velocity, a current velocity, and a wind speed, is of great significance to identify ice drift characteristics. A sea ice substitute, the so-called "modelled ice", which is made by polypropylene material with a density similar to Bohai Sea ice, is used to complete a free drift experiment in the open sea. The trajectories of isolated modelled ice, currents and wind in the Bohai Sea during non-frozen and frozen periods are obtained. The results show that the currents play a major role while the wind plays a minor role in the free drift of isolated modelled ice when the wind is mild in the Bohai Sea. The modelled ice drift is significantly affected by the ocean current and wind based on the ice–current–wind relationship established by a multiple linear regression. The modelled ice velocity calculated by the multiple linear regression is close to that of the in situ observation, the magnitude of the error between the calculated and observed ice velocities is less than12.05%, and the velocity direction error is less than 6.21°. Thus, the ice velocity can be estimated based on the observed current velocity and wind speed when the in situ observed ice velocity is missing. And the modelled ice of same thickness with a smaller density is more sensitive to the current velocity and the wind speed changes. In addition, the modelled ice drift characteristics are shown to be close to those of the real sea ice, which indicates that the modelled ice can be used as a good substitute of real ice for in situ observation of the free ice drift in the open sea, which helps solve time availability, safety and logistics problems related to in situ observation on real ice.     

Sensitivity of the modelled thermohaline circulation to the parameterisation of mixing across the Greenland–Scotland ridge

The Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3 simulates a stable thermohaline circulation driven by deep water formation in the Norwegian and Labrador Seas without the need for flux adjustments. It has however been suggested that this result is the fortuitous consequence of the local use of the Roussenov convection scheme in this region, and that the model simulation may depend sensitively on this parameterisation. Here we investigate the sensitivity of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to the model’s treatment of the overflows from the Nordic Seas for both pre-industrial and increasing greenhouse gas forcings. We find that although the density structure in the Labrador Sea does depend upon the specifics of how the overflows are modelled, the global thermohaline circulation and climate responses are not sensitive to these details. This result gives credibility to previously published modelling studies on the response of the thermohaline circulation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, and implies that research may profitably be focussed on the large scale transports, where models are known to disagree.