中国北方干湿过渡区生态系统生产力的气候变化风险评估

气候变化风险是人类社会发展面临的严峻挑战,评估识别对气候波动响应敏感且复杂的干湿过渡区生态系统所面临的气候变化风险是一个重要科学问题,对区域气候治理和风险管理具有科学意义.本文利用参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多气候模式多情景数据,通过改进和验证Lund-Potsdam-Jena(LPJ)动态全球植被模型...     

Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China

Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone(AHTZ) in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation. We simulated the net primary productivity(NPP) for four representative concentration pathways(RCPs) using an improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena model. Then a method was established based on the NPP to identify the climate change risk level. From the midterm period(2041–2070) to the long-term period(2071–2099), the risks indicated by the negative anomaly and the downward trend of the NPP gradually extended and increased. The higher the scenario emissions, the more serious the risk. In particular, under the RCP8.5 scenario, during 2071–2099, the total risk area would be 81.85%, that of the high-risk area would reach 54.71%. In this high-risk area, the NPP anomaly would reach –96.00±46.95 gC·m~(-2)·a~(-1), and the rate of change of the NPP would reach –3.56±3.40 gC·m~(-2)·a~(-1). The eastern plain of the AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas. Our results indicated that the management of future climate change risks requires the consideration of the synergistic effects of warming and intensified drying on the ecosystem.     

Geomorphological evidence for late Holocene climatic change in northern Australia

The hypothesis that the late Holocene climate of northern Australia has been characterised by periods of reduced rainfall has been examined by constructing a detailed chronostratigraphy of climatically sensitive geomorphological sites, in particular dunefields and lake deposits. There is clear evidence of aridity during the last glacial period (c. 18,000 BP), and disturbance of coastal deposits by rising sea level until 5500 BP. Following the flooding of the shallow Sunda and Sahul shelves, the climate of northern Australia appears to have become increasingly variable with an arid trend interrupted by periods of increased rainfall between 3500 and 2800 BP, again between 2100 and 1600 BP and possibly twice during the last 1000 years. It is proposed that the dry episodes are associated with persistent, large‐scale sinking, dry south‐easterly flows over the Australian tropics inhibiting the onset of the north Australian monsoon. These are similar to flows associated with present‐day ENSO events. The pattern suggests that ENSO may be associated with a larger process which may not have begun to operate until the flooding of the shallow Sunda and Sahul shelves and the opening of the Indonesian throughflow between the Pacific and Indian oceans.     

Pollen-based reconstructions of Holocene vegetation and climatic change of Tibetan Plateau

A synthesis of Holocene pollen records from the Tibetan Plateau shows the history of vegetation and climatic changes during the Holocene. Palynological evidences from 24 cores/sections have been compiled and show that the vegetation shifted from subalpine/alpine conifer forest to subalpine/alpine evergreen sclerophyllous forest in the southeastern part of the plateau; from alpine steppe to alpine desert in the central, western and northern part; and from alpine meadow to alpine steppe in the eastern and southern plateau regions during the Holocene. These records show that increases in precipitation began about 9 ka from the southeast, and a wide ranging level of increased humidity developed over the entire of the plateau around 8-7 ka, followed by aridity from 6 ka and a continuous drying over the plateau after 4-3 ka. The changes in Holocene climates of the plateau can be interpreted qualitatively as a response to orbital forcing and its secondary effects on the Indian Monsoon which expanded northwards     

Spatiotemporal variations in remote sensing phenology of vegetation and its responses to temperature change of boreal forest in tundrataiga transitional zone in the Eastern Siberia

Phenology is an important indicator of climate change. Studying spatiotemporal variations in remote sensing phenology of vegetation can provide a basis for further analysis of global climate change. Based on time series data of MODIS-NDVI from 2000 to 2017, we extracted and analyzed four remote sensing phenological parameters of vegetation, including the Start of Season(SOS), the End of Season(EOS), the Middle of Season(MOS) and the Length of Season(LOS), in tundra-taiga transitional zone in the...     

东西伯利亚苔原—泰加林过渡带植被遥感物候时空特征及其对气温变化的响应

物候变化是气候变化的重要指示器,通过对植被物候时空变化的研究可以为进一步分析全球气候变化提供依据。基于2000—2017年MODIS-NDVI时间序列数据,利用不对称高斯函数和动态阈值法,提取、分析了东西伯利亚苔原—泰加林过渡带植被生长季起始期（SOS）、结束期（EOS）、中期（MOS）和长度（LOS）4种植被遥感物候参数的时空变化格局。同时结合同期CRU（Climate Research Unit）气温观测数据,分析了4种物候参数对气温变化的响应关系。结果表明：遥感物候参数可以直接、有效地反映气温的变化：研究区64°N以南区域4—5月气温升高,对应区域SOS提前5~15 d;64°N~72°N之间5—6月气温升高,对应区域SOS提前10~25 d;最北端北冰洋沿岸6月气温升高幅度较小且7月气温降低,对应区域SOS推后15~25 d;西北部8月、西南部9月气温降低,对应地区EOS提前15~30 d;67°N以南区域9—10月气温升高,对应区域EOS推后5~30 d;EOS的变化对气温变化较SOS更为敏感,较小的气温波动即引起EOS较大的变动;研究区内植被生长季整体呈前移趋势,且西北部LOS缩短,中部、南部LOS延长。     

Holocene lake carbon sequestration,hydrological status and vegetation change,China

Lakes have received considerable attention as long-term sinks for organic carbon(C) at regional and global scales. Previous studies have focused on assessment and quantification of carbon sinks, and few have worked on the relationship between millennial-scale lake C sequestration, hydrological status and vegetation, which has important scientific significance in improving our understanding of lake C stocks and storage mechanisms. Here, we present a comprehensive study of pollen records, organic geochemical proxies, lake-level records, sediment accumulation rate(SAR) and organic C accumulation rate(CAR) in China since the Holocene. We also include numerical climate classification and lake-level simulations, to investigate variations of lake C sequestration, hydrological status and vegetation during the Holocene. Results indicate that the evolution of lake C accumulation showed an out-of-phase relationship with hydrological status and vegetation in China. Lake C accumulation exhibited an overall trend of increasing from the early to late Holocene in response to gradually increasing terrestrial organic matter input. However, China as a whole experienced the densest vegetation cover in the middle Holocene, corresponding to the mid-Holocene optimum of a milder and wetter climate. Optimal hydrological conditions were asynchronous in China; for example, early Holocene in Asian monsoon dominated areas, and middle Holocene in westerlies controlled regions. Our synthesis indicated that climate change was the main factor controlling the long-term variability in lake C accumulation, hydrologic conditions, as well as vegetation, and human influences were usually superimposed on the natural trends.     

Pollen-stratigraphical evidence of Holocene hydrological change in northern Fennoscandia supported by independent isotopic data

Pollen records from 21 sites were used to reconstruct Holocene hydrological changes in northern Fennoscandia. The inferred dominance of maritime-type Betula-forests from c. 9600 BP onwards indicate an oceanic climate in the region during the early Holocene, with high amounts of precipitation and low seasonal contrasts. This interpretation is supported by oxygen isotope records obtained on lacustrine carbonates from Abisko, northern Sweden. Enrichment of ¹⁸O during the early Holocene suggests enhanced zonal circulation and a pronounced influence of Atlantic air-masses in northern Sweden. The pattern of Pinus expansion in the area was time-transgressive, ranging from 9200-8000 BP in the extreme north-east to 7900-5500 BP in the western and south-western parts of the region. The replacement of Betula-forests by Pinus-forests indicates a climatic change towards drier summers and increased seasonality. At Abisko, a close correlation between regional Pinus expansion and depletion of ¹⁸O in lacustrine carbonates suggests that the expansion of Pinus was triggered by a gradual attenuation of the influence of westerlies. Thus, in large-scale palaeohydrological terms, the early expansion of Pinus in the north-easternmost parts of Fennoscandia as compared to the successively later expansion in the west and south-west may reflect a gradually decreasing influence of Atlantic air-masses in northern Fennoscandia during the early and mid Holocene.     

Modeling the effects of historical vegetation change on near-surface atmosphere in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Our goal was to evaluate effects of broad-scale changes in vegetation from grasslands to shrublands over the past 150 years on near-surface atmosphere over the Jornada Experimental Range in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, using a regional climate model. Simulations were conducted using 1858 and 1998 vegetation maps, and data collected in the field. Overall, the vegetation shift led to small changes in sensible heat (SH) and an increase in latent heat (LH). The impacts of shrub encroachment depended on shrubland type: conversion from grass to mesquite cools the near-surface atmosphere and from grass to creosotebush warms it. Higher albedo of mesquite relative to grasses reduced available energy, which was dissipated mainly as LH due to the deeper root system in mesquite. In creosotebush-dominated areas, a decrease in albedo, an increase in roughness length and displacement height contributed to the SH increase and warmer temperatures. Sensitivity simulations showed that an increase in soil moisture content enhanced shrub LH and a reduction in mesquite cover enhanced the temperature differences. The observed shift in vegetation led to complex interactions between land and surface fluxes, demonstrating that vegetation itself is a weather and climate variable as it significantly influences temperature and humidity.     

Evaluating environmental drivers of Holocene changes in water chemistry and aquatic biota composition at Lake Loitsana,NE Finland

This study presents a detailed analysis of geochemical and biotic proxies in a lake sediment profile to assess the effects of local and regional environmental drivers on the Holocene development of Lake Loitsana, situated in the northern boreal forest of NE Finland. Multi-proxy studies, in particular those that include a detailed plant macrofossil record, from the part of the northern boreal zone of Fennoscandia which has not been affected by treeline fluctuations, are scarce and few of these records date back to the earliest part of the Holocene. A 9-m sediment sequence of gyttja overlying silts representing the last c. 10,700 cal year, allowed for a high-resolution study with emphasis on the early to mid-Holocene lake history. The lacustrine sediments were studied using lithology, loss-on-ignition and C/N ratios, micro- and macro-fossils of aquatic and wetland taxa, diatoms, chironomids and accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dating on terrestrial plant macrofossils. Our study shows that the local development at Loitsana was complex and included a distinct glacial lake phase and subsequent drainage, a history of fluvial input affected by nearby wetland expansion, and lake infilling in an eventual esker-fed shallow lake. Enhanced trophic conditions, due to morphometric eutrophication, are recorded as Glacial Lake Sokli drained and open water conditions became restricted to a relatively small Lake Loitsana depression. pH appears to have been stable throughout the Holocene with a well-buffered lake due to the local carbonatite bedrock (Sokli Carbonatite Massif). The fossil assemblage changes are best explained by a complex mixture of drivers, including water-body conditions (i.e. depth, turbidity and turbulence), rate of sediment input, and the general infilling of the lake, highlighting the need to carefully evaluate the possible influence of such local factors as palaeoenvironmental conditions are reconstructed based on aquatic proxies.     

Pulp and paper mill pollution and subsequent ecosystem recovery of a large boreal lake in Finland: a paleolimnological analysis

Sedimentary diatom frustules and chironomid remains, in addition to the chemical stratigraphy of 32 elements and resin acids, were studied from short-core samples taken from two basins and a sheltered bay of Lake Päijänne in southern Finland (about 61 °10–62 °15 N, 25 °30 E). The lake was formerly oligotrophic but has been subject to effluent loading from pulp and paper mills during the past century since the opening of the first pulp mill in the 1880s. Four developmental phases were distinguished and named mainly according to the effects found in the basin close to the pollution source: (1) the pre-industrial phase (from the 1800s to ca. 1920), including the early years of industrialization, with low impacts; (2) the phase of increasing pollution (ca. 1920–1969); (3) the phase of severe pollution (1970–1981); and (4) the water protection phase (1982 onwards).Distinct differences were observed between pelagic (diatoms) and benthic (chironomid) ecosystems in their response to pollution. Effluent loading from the pulp and paper mills had a pronounced impact on chironomid assemblages, but only a slight influence on diatoms in the basin close to the pollution source. In the southern basin, approximately 60 km downstream, an increase in acidophilous species was observed in the diatom assemblages during the early years of pollution, but changes in chironomids in this basin were negligible. The water protection work of the past 30 years, which has led to an improvement in water quality and a marked recovery of the profundal biota, has also resulted in a slight increase in primary production of the lake. The decrease in brown-coloured effluent water has led to an increase in thickness of the lake's photic productive layer, while the toxicity of the water has simultaneously diminished. Rapid changes in chironomid assemblages and sedimentation observed in the sheltered bay highlight the importance of local land-use activities as causes of environmental change in this area, and especially their effects on sedimentation and benthic life.     

Millennial-scale evolution of Hunshandake Desert and climate change during the Holocene in Inner Mongolia,northern China

The Hunshandake Desert is located at the northern edge of the East Asian monsoon region,and its natural environment is sensitive to monsoonal changes.Geologic records suggest that desert evolution corresponding to climate change had experienced several cycles in the Holocene,and the evolutionary process can be distinguished by four dominant stages according to changing trends of the environment and climate.(1) Holocene Ameliorative Period(11.0-8.7 cal ka B.P.),when the desert area gradually shrank following an approaching warm-wet climate and strengthening summer monsoon.(2) Holocene Optimum(8.7-6.0 cal ka B.P.),when the majority of moving sand dunes were stabilized and vegetation coverage quickly expanded in a suitable warm-wet climate and a strong summer monsoon.(3) Holocene Multivariate Period(6.0-3.5 cal ka B.P.),during a low-amplitude desert transformed between moving and stabilized types under alternating functions of cold-dry with warm-wet climate,and winter monsoon with summer monsoon.(4) Holocene Decay Period(since 3.5 cal ka B.P.),when the desert area tended to expand along with a weakened summer monsoon and a dry climate.     

Holocene climate change and carbon cycling in a groundwater-fed, boreal forest lake: Dune Lake, Alaska

We compared cladoceran assemblages in modern and pre-industrial sediments from cores taken in 48 softwater lakes located in four main regions of Nova Scotia (Canada) to evaluate the impacts of acidification and other recent environmental stressors. Lakes in Kejimkujik National Park showed significant increases in Holopedium relative abundances and significant decreases in Alona and other chydorids since pre-industrial times, which appear to be related to declines in pH and calcium (Ca) concentrations caused by acidic deposition. Lakes in Bridgewater also showed a significant decrease in Alona, as well as a significant increase in macrothricid (Acantholeberis and Ophryoxus) taxa that cannot be explained by declines in pH, although declines in [Ca] have been recorded. Lakes in Yarmouth did not show any significant regional changes in major cladoceran species groups. Still, pre-industrial assemblages in these lakes significantly differed from modern assemblages, with assemblage changes being lake-specific and likely related to interactions between local and regional stressors acting on individual lakes. Finally, lakes in Cape Breton Highlands National Park, located on the taiga plateau, have received historically lower levels of sulphate deposition relative to other regions in the province, and recorded a significant decrease in Alona similar to Bridgewater lakes. The province-wide decrease in Alona across different acid deposition rates suggests that limnological changes related to climate warming may be responsible. Overall, this study shows that acidification history is an important predictor of cladoceran assemblage changes since pre-industrial times in Nova Scotia lakes, although multiple stressors result in complex Cladocera responses in some regions.     

Stable isotopes and soil-geomorphology as indicators of Holocene climate change, northern Chihuahuan Desert

Coeval δ¹³C shifts recorded in buried soils at both piedmont slope and basin floor sites in the northern Chihuahuan Desert indicate a major shift from C₄grasses to C₃desert-scrub between 7 and 9 ka. The age assignments are based on stratigraphic correlations to charcoal dates and carbon-14 dates of carbonate. This shift is synchronous with a period of cooling in the North Atlantic that may have triggered a period of drought in the south-western United States. Coinciding with this vegetation change, geomorphic evidence in Rio Grande, piedmont, and basin floor eolian environments indicates a major period of erosion. Subsequent gradual enrichment of pedogenic carbonateδ¹³ C values in younger deposits suggests that C₄grasses rebounded in the late Holocene (approximately 4 ka), which is consistent with other evidence of increased moisture regionally. A period of less severe aridity at approximately 2·2 ka is indicated by erosion and subsequent deposition along the alluvial fans and within the basin, and correlates with depleted pedogenic carbonate δ¹³C values suggesting a decrease in C₄grasses. Isotope and packrat midden records should be used together to infer past environmental conditions at different elevations.     

Evaluating Holocene climate change in northern Norway using sediment records from two contrasting lake systems

We analyzed Holocene sedimentary records from two lakes in the Lofoten Islands, northern Norway to evaluate environmental changes during the Holocene related to northern North Atlantic climate dynamics. The lakes are located in different geomorphological settings, and thus provide a contrast in their response to regional climate change. Environmental changes at both lakes were interpreted based on magnetic susceptibility, organic-matter flux, C/N, ??¹³C_org, Ti concentrations, and mass accumulation rates. Chronologies were established using 16 AMS radiocarbon dates, and average deposition rates in both environments are higher than 0.2?mm/year throughout the Holocene. At Vikjordvatnet, sedimentary geochemical properties define three distinct phases of sedimentation related to changes in aquatic productivity and gradual landscape development. Following deglaciation, during the early Holocene (11.6?C7.2?ka), aquatic productivity increased and the landscape stabilized as regional temperatures increased in response to higher summer insolation and increasing inflow of warm Atlantic water into the Norwegian Sea. Centennial-scale intervals of decreased organic-matter flux, from 10.9 to 10.2?ka and 9.2 to 8.0?ka, record episodes of instability during the early Holocene. These may represent regional cooling events related to freshwater forcing and a slowdown of the northward transport of warm water into the North Atlantic. During the mid-Holocene (7.2?C4.8?ka) organic-matter properties show less variability and the timing of this phase corresponds with the regional Holocene thermal maximum. The late Holocene sediments (4.8?ka?Cpresent) record a transition to colder climate conditions. The record from Fiskeb?lvatnet captures periodic changes in clastic input related to runoff and exhibits high-frequency variations over the last 9.5?ka. The most significant change in sedimentation was during the late Holocene (4.3?ka?Cpresent) when the frequency and magnitude of runoff events show an abrupt transition to wetter conditions. The timing of this shift corresponds to other regional reconstructions that indicate wetter and colder conditions during the late Holocene.     

Holocene development of aquatic vegetation in shallow Lake Njargajavri,Finnish Lapland,with evidence of water-level fluctuations and drying

Holocene development of aquatic plant communities in subarctic Lake Njargajavri, Finnish Lapland, was studied using plant macrofossil analysis. Sediment lithology, grain size, and C/N ratios showed distinct lithological phases, indicating past water-level fluctuations. The colonization of limnophytes took place right after the formation of the lake (after ca. 11,500 cal. BP). The earliest plant macrofossil assemblages indicate nutrient-rich conditions and a warmer climate than at present. After this primary succession phase, aquatic vascular plants were replaced by aquatic bryophytes (before ca. 10,200 cal. BP). Together with lithological evidence, we interpret this as being related to the lowering water table. According to palynological, chronological, and sedimentological evidence, Njargajavri underwent a very shallow phase between ca. 10,000 and 9500 cal. BP and dried out for an unknown period of time between ca. 8000 and 5000 cal. BP. After the dry phase, the water level started to rise and sedimentation at the coring point began again. Despite re-establishment of the lacustrine habitat, late-Holocene plant macrofossil data show no marked recolonization of either vascular limnophytes or bryophytes. The reason for all limnophytes being presently absent from the lake remains speculative. The lack of nutrients and/or the cooling climate (especially shortening of the open-water season) during the latter part of the Holocene may explain why limnophytes failed to recolonize the lake.     

A late Holocene varved sediment record of environmental change from northern Ellesmere Island, Canada

A composite record of varve sedimentation is presented from high arctic meromictic Lake C2. The combination of a short runoff and sediment transport season with the strong density stratification of the lake lead to the formation of annual sediment couplets. This conclusion was confirmed by ²¹⁰Pb determinations. High intra-lake correlation of the varves allowed the construction of a composite record of varve sedimentation from overlapping segments of multiple sediment cores. Cross-dating between core segments isolated counting errors in individual cores, that could be attributed to minor sediment disturbances and vague structures. Resolving counting errors by cross-dating reduced the chronological error of the composite series to an estimated ±57 years.The Lake C2 series is the first non-ice cap, high resolution late-Holocene environmental record from the Canadian high arctic. The composite varve series compares favorably with other high resolution proxies from the arctic, in particular with the ice core records from Devon Island and Camp Century, Greenland. A general correspondence between the varve record and other North American proxies for the little Ice Age period (1400–1900 AD) suggests that the Lake C2 record is sensitive to large-scale synoptic changes.This is the tenth in a series of papers published in this issue on the Taconite Inlet Lakes Project. These papers were collected by Dr R. S. Bradley.     

Late Holocene hydrologic changes in northern New Zealand inferred from stable isotope values of aquatic cellulose in sediments from Lake Pupuke

Isotopic records of aquatic cellulose are becoming increasingly important for palaeohydrological reconstructions, but widespread application of this climate proxy is hampered by minerogenic contamination that affects oxygen isotope measures in cellulose. Few records of isotopes in aquatic cellulose are available from palaeoclimate archives in the Southern Hemisphere. In this study, we used a new bulk cellulose extraction method and determined the oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and carbon (δ¹³C) isotope values in cellulose from a Holocene lake sediment core segment (7.2–1.1 cal ka BP) from Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand. Isotope values from modern, potential sources of sedimentary cellulose revealed the aquatic origin of the cellulose extracted from the core, and hence enabled inference of past lake water δ¹⁸O values from the δ¹⁸O of measured cellulose in the core. A shift to a more positive water balance in the lake was identified around 2.8 cal ka BP by a decrease in inferred lake water δ¹⁸O values. At that time, greater epilimnetic primary productivity is indicated by the higher δ¹³C values of sedimentary cellulose. Greater divergence between the δ¹³C values of cellulose and bulk organic matter suggests stronger stratification of the lake, likely caused by greater freshwater input. We discuss a possible link to a solar minimum that occurred at that time.