考虑抽样不确定性的水文设计值估计

水文频率分析计算过程中,水文极值样本系列容量一般都较小、代表性不高,使得水文设计值估计具有不确定性。利用Bootstrap方法,研究样本抽样不确定性对水文设计值的影响。与传统水文频率分析方法相比,基于Bootstrap方法不仅可提供设计值的点估计和区间估计,同时能够对设计值的不确定性进行定量评价。此外,基于Bootstrap技术,结合矩法、权函数法及线性矩法,设置3套方案,分析了该方法在不同参数估计方法间的有效性。以南通市1970-2011年共42年的年降雨量数据资料为例,对所提方法进行实例应用分析,结果表明,从期望设计值、90%置信区间及最终设计值角度而言,基于所提方法的设计成果受参数估计方法的选取影响不大,且可回避规范中B值诺莫图通用性较差及误差显著问题。     

非一致性水文频率分析的研究进展

水文频率分析计算需满足独立随机同分布假设,其中同分布是指水文样本在过去、现在和未来均服从同一总体分布,即样本应具有一致性。然而,由于气候变化及人类活动的影响,使得一致性的假设受到挑战,因此变化环境下传统频率计算方法获得的设计结果,其可靠性受到质疑。为此,探索适应非一致性极值系列的频率分析方法已显得非常重要。总结介绍国内外关于非一致性水文频率分析的一些代表性研究成果,主要集中在以下两方面:一是基于还原/还现途径;二是基于非一致性极值系列直接进行水文频率分析途径。最后对进一步值得研究的问题进行了展望。     

基于典型解集模型的非一致性年径流过程设计方法

由于受人类活动和气候变化的影响,水文序列失去了一致性。为了适应变化环境对灌溉、供水工程设计的要求,提出了基于典型解集模型的非一致性年径流过程设计方法:首先,采用水文变异诊断系统对径流序列进行年际和年内分配情势变异分析;其次,根据年际变异和年内分配情势变异的时间点,将径流序列分段;再次,基于径流年际变异诊断结果,采用变化环境下非一致性水文频率计算方法计算年径流变异前后过去、现状或未来水平年不同保证率下的设计年径流值;最后,基于径流年内分配变异诊断结果,在径流年内分配变异前后利用典型解集模型进行年径流过程设计。以东江河源站为例,进行了非一致性年径流过程设计,并与未考虑"非一致性"影响的年径流过程设计结果进行比较,发现河源站设计年径流过程受"非一致性"影响显著。     

考虑局部趋势的非一致性水文频率分析方法

变化环境下水文序列常表现出非一致性,导致基于独立同分布假设的频率分析方法受到严峻挑战,故亟需研究适用于非一致性水文序列的频率分析方法。针对具有趋势变异的水文序列,提出了一种考虑局部趋势的非一致性水文频率分析方法:以具有局部与整体趋势识别能力的滑动窗口趋势分析法诊断序列;构造时变概率分布模型组,采用融合了贝叶斯理论的广义极大似然法估计模型参数;优选模型并按照等可靠度原则推求设计值及置信区间。应用该方法对甘肃石羊河流域红崖山水库站年径流量序列开展了实例研究,结果表明从设计值及95%置信区间角度看,所提方法与现行的一致性频率分析方法及考虑整体趋势的时变分布方法相比存在一定的差异,揭示了在准确识别序列局部或整体趋势成分的基础上,开展非一致性水文频率分析有助于合理估计设计值。     

特大值处理对频率计算结果影响分析

为研究特大值处理对频率计算结果的影响,通过对木垒水文站实测资料进行频率计算,对其中一次较大洪水的考虑,采用了不同方法进行处理。再运用P-Ⅲ型曲线进行配线,得到设计频率下的设计洪水值,并对所得结果进行对比分析,以说明较大洪水视为特大洪水与否对工程设计的影响,从而给水文工程设计者提供较为合理的建议。     

梯级水库作用下的长江流域水文设计成果修订研究

长江流域水文成果复核选取了48个水文站点作为研究对象,考虑站点上游已建具有较强调节能力的大型水库调蓄影响,对径流、洪水进行还原分析计算以保证系列的一致性,并对径流、洪水设计成果的变化进行对比分析。径流成果分析表明,延长系列后干支流主要控制站点的径流成果较为稳定,多年平均年径流量和各站点20%、50%和75%频率年径流设计值的相对变化均在5%以内;洪水成果分析表明,延长洪水系列后的百年一遇设计洪水成果与前期不同阶段采用成果相比变化不大,基本均在4%以内。     

柱下独立基础稳健性设计与分析

岩土工程随机参数统计特征的不确定性,使得岩土工程可靠度设计存在一定风险。岩土工程稳健性设计能够充分考虑随机参数的不确定性结合结构安全性、稳健性和经济性实现最优设计。针对随机参数统计特征的不确定性对柱下独立基础设计的影响,基于可靠度理论和岩土工程稳健性设计方法,考虑岩土参数、混凝土和钢筋材料力学参数统计特征不确定性的影响,以独立基础几何尺寸作为可控设计参数进行设计分析。将独立基础地基承载力、地基变形、基础结构冲切破坏和基础弯曲破坏4种失效模式视为串联系统,进行多失效模式下的结构体系稳健性设计,分析了多失效模式下结构几何参数与结构体系可靠度的关系。结合稳健性和经济性,进行了独立基础多目标优化设计,确定柱下独立基础设计的最优解。     

珠江流域极端降水阈值不确定性分析

全球气候持续变化下。极端水文事件频发且时空分布规律显著变异,极端水文事件阈值及其时空分布不确定性成为当前水文水资源研究领域的热点问题之一。以珠江流域62个雨量站1959～2009年逐日降水序列为样本,运用固定临界值法、百分位值法和极值分布拟合法等方法,探讨了珠江流域极端降水阈值的时空分布规律和不确定性特征。研究表明,在流域尺度上,利用上述方法分析极端降水阈值时,均存在较多不确定性。(1)固定临界值法无法反映流域降水空间分布不均对极端降水阈值的影响;(2)百分位值法受样本容量、百分位值选取标准等影响较大,流域不同地区同一百分位或同一地区不同百分位下极端降水阈值波动幅度较大,易导致降水高值区阈值偏低,降水低值区阂值偏高;(3)极值分布拟合法受极值分布拟合函数类型、样本容量大小等影响较大,拟合精度不高。     

多失效模式下基于区间非概率的岩质隧道稳定可靠度分析

对于岩质隧道工程的稳定可靠度分析,一方面由于岩体参数的统计数据获取困难使得概率可靠度方法难以适用,另一方面其工程稳定与多种失效模式密切相关,须考虑隧道结构体系的可靠度问题。首先,基于区间理论,通过区间变量形式表征不确定性参数;然后,针对岩质隧道工程中多种失效模式并存的情况,引入结构体系可靠度理念,建立基于区间非概率的岩质隧道结构体系可靠度指标计算及其稳定性评价方法;在此基础上,通过工程实例验证了该方法的合理性;最后,定义不确定性参数的波动幅度,进一步分析各失效模式中不同参数对相应可靠度指标以及结构体系可靠度指标的影响。分析结果表明,各失效模式相应的非概率可靠度指标均随区间变量范围的增大而降低,且同一参数在不同失效模式中表现出不同的影响;另外,不确定性参数的变化还将导致影响岩质隧道结构体系稳定的主要失效模式发生相应的变化。     

人类活动对官厅山峡设计洪水影响分析

1950年以来,区域中小型水库、塘坝窖池等水利工程和水土保持工程的建设,地下水超采等人类活动,对永定河官厅山峡水文系列的一致性产生了较大影响。基于新安江-海河模型,对官厅山峡的设计洪水成果进行了修订,经计算,100年一遇频率下,官厅山峡3d设计洪量修订值为2.54×10~8m~3,7d设计洪量修订值3.55×10~8m~3。     

Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges

Flood frequency approaches vary from statistical methods, directly applied on the observed annual maximum flood series, to adopting rainfall–runoff simulation models that transform design rainfalls to flood discharges. Reliance on statistical flood frequency analysis depends on several factors such as the selected probability distribution function, estimation of the function parameters, possible outliers, and length of the observed flood series. Through adopting the simulation approach in this paper, watershed-average rainfalls of various occurrence probabilities were transformed into the corresponding peak discharges using a calibrated hydrological model. A Monte Carlo scheme was employed to consider the uncertainties involved in rainfall spatial patterns and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). For any given rainfall depth, realizations of rainfall spatial distribution and AMC conditions were entered as inputs to the model. Then, floods of different return periods were simulated by transforming rainfall to runoff. The approach was applied to Tangrah watershed in northeastern Iran. It was deduced that the spatial rainfall distribution and the AMCs exerted a varying influence on the peak discharge of different return periods. Comparing the results of the simulation approach with those of the statistical frequency analysis revealed that, for a given return period, flood quantiles based on the observed series were greater than the corresponding simulated discharges. It is also worthy to note that existence of outliers and the selection of the statistical distribution function has a major effect in increasing the differences between the results of the two approaches.     

不同条件下水文要素重现期的计算方法

重现期在工程规划、设计、运行和管理中已经得到了广泛应用,然而,由于气候变化和人类活动破坏了水文频率分析中的一致性基础,致使基于一致性的重现期计算方法面临挑战,迫切需要研究新的重现期计算方法。以重现期两种不同的定义入手,给出了在水文系列满足独立性假定后重现期在一致性与非一致性条件下各自计算公式,并以广东省东江流域龙川站1956~2009年的年最大洪峰资料系列为例,分析了不同条件下重现期及其变化的特点与原因。     

Comparison of the performance of power law and probability distributions in the frequency analysis of flood in Dez Basin,Iran

Determination of the return period of design flood depends on the nature of the project and the consequences of the flood and is based on economic criteria, human casualties, and hydrological factors. Underestimation of flood might result in casualties and economic damages, while the overestimation leads to capital waste. Therefore, in this research, the flood frequency analysis of Dez Basin, Iran was conducted within the period of 1956–2012 using power law approach together with ordinary distributions, including normal, log normal, Pearson type III, exponential, gamma, generalized extreme value, Nakagami, Rayleigh, logistic, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, and Weibull distributions. The power law comes from the fractal nature of earth science phenomena such as precipitation and runoff. Accordingly, in this research the partial duration flood series of five hydrometric stations in Dez Basin were extracted using power law with the intervals of 7, 14, 30, and 60 days and then compared with the annual maxima. The results indicated that the annual maxima were not suitable for frequency analysis of the flood in Dez Basin, and the 30-day partial duration series obtained from the power law has a better correspondence with the flow and properties of the Dez Basin. The independence and stationarity of the 30-day partial duration series were examined by Wald–Wolfowitz test, confirming the independence of the considered series. Next, the power distribution and the typical statistical distributions were fitted onto the data of the flood in Dez Basin, with the performance of each distribution being investigated using normalized root-mean-square error and Nash–Sutcliffe criteria. The results revealed that in the SDZ and TPB stations, power distribution had a better performance than other considered distributions. Moreover, in the SDS, TPS, and TZ stations the power distribution stood in the second rank in terms of the best distribution. As the performance of power distribution in the estimation of the flood in Dez Basin has been very satisfactory and calculation of its parameters and its application is easier than ordinary probability distributions, thus it can be suggested as the superior distribution for flood frequency analysis in Dez Basin.     

Adaptive reservoir flood limited water level for a changing environment

As streamflow is non-stationary due to climate change and human activities, adapting reservoir operation in the changing environment is of significant importance. Specifically, the flood limited water level (FLWL) needs to be re-established to ensure flood safety when the reservoir inflow is altered. The aims of this study are: (1) to clarify the relationship between the FLWL and streamflow when statistical parameters of the flood peak and volume vary through time and (2) to re-establish the FLWL when the reservoir inflow changes under the non-stationary condition. The adaptive FLWL is derived based on flood routing of non-stationary design floods, and the flood risk probability is then estimated. With China’s Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) as a case study, the changing pattern of FLWL is quantified when statistical parameters (i.e., mean, \( C_{\text{V}} \) and \( C_{\text{S}} \)) of design floods have a linear temporal trend. The results indicate that the FLWL is sensitive with design floods, i.e., (1) means of design flood peak, 3-day volume, 7-day volume, 15-day volume and 30-day volume yearly decrease by 33 m³/s, 0.008, 0.021, 0.482 and 0.905 billion m³, respectively, (2) when the non-stationary design flood is used, the cumulative flood risk probability of the reservoir water level exceeding 175.0 m during 2011–2030 decreases from 1.98 to 1.82% with the conventional FLWL scheme and (3) the FLWL of the TGR could be re-set without increasing the flood risk probability, and the FLWL would increase about 4.7 m by 2030 in this non-stationary streamflow scenario. These findings are helpful to derive the FLWL in a changing environment.     

基于Copula函数的入库洪水与坝址洪水关系研究

采用频率分析法计算入库设计洪水时,需要通过相关分析将坝址洪水系列插补得到对应的入库洪水系列。常用的线性回归法假设两者满足线性关系且入库洪水系列服从正态分布,可能与实际情况并不相符。引入Copula函数构建坝址洪水与入库洪水的联合概率分布和条件概率分布,计算给定坝址洪水时入库洪水的条件最可能值和置信区间,提出了一种基于Copula函数的入库洪水插补新方法。三峡水库的应用实例表明:线性回归法得到的入库洪水值在坝址洪水量级较大时明显偏小,甚至稀遇洪水时不在90%置信区间内。所提方法能较好地反映坝址洪水与入库洪水的内在关系,不仅可以计算入库洪水的各种点估计值,而且能够定量评价估计的不确定性。     

拓扑克里格法与普通克里格法在区域洪水频率分析中的比较研究

依据北江(珠江流域支流)流域6个水文测站年最大洪峰流量资料,分别用Top-kriging(拓扑克里格法)和普通克里格法进行区域洪水频率估计。采用均方根误差作为频率分布线型拟合优度指标。运用线性矩法进行单站洪水频率分析,确定10、50、100、1000年一遇设计洪水值。在此基础上,从Topkriging和普通克里格法设计洪水估计不确定性和相对线性矩法单站洪水频率的估计误差两个方面比较Top-kriging和普通克里格法。结果表明:(1)Top-kriging法是更好的线性无偏估计,相比普通克里格法更适合于区域洪水频率估计;(2)Top-kriging法设计洪水估计不确定性明显小于普通克里格法;(3)Top-kriging法设计洪水估计结果更接近线性矩法单站洪水频率分析结果。     

National flood discharge mapping in Austria

This article presents the approach and the results of a study in which 30, 100 and 200 year return period flood discharges were estimated for 26,000 km of Austrian streams. Three guiding principles were adopted: combination of automatic methods and manual assessments by hydrologists to allow speedy processing and account for the local hydrological situation; combination of various sources of information including flood peak samples, rainfall data, runoff coefficients and historical flood data; and involvement of the Hydrographic Services to increase the accuracy and enhance the acceptance of results. The flood discharges for ungauged catchments were estimated by the Top-kriging approach with manual adjustment to the local flood characteristics. The adopted combination approach proved to be very efficient both in terms of the project time required and in terms of the accuracy and acceptability of the estimated flood discharges of given return periods.     

A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks

In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk. This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding (i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the “German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working group on “Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision support tool for flood management.     

Hydraulic routing of extreme floods in a large ungauged river and the estimation of associated uncertainties: a case study of the Damodar River, India

Many developing countries are very vulnerable to flood risk since they are located in climatic zones characterised by extreme precipitation events, such as cyclones and heavy monsoon rainfall. Adequate flood mitigation requires a routing mechanism that can predict the dynamics of flood waves as they travel from source to flood-prone areas, and thus allow for early warning and adequate flood defences. A number of cutting edge hydrodynamic models have been developed in industrialised countries that can predict the advance of flood waves efficiently. These models are not readily applicable to flood prediction in developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, however, due to lack of data, particularly terrain and hydrological data. This paper explores the adaptations and adjustments that are essential to employ hydrodynamic models like LISFLOOD-FP to route very high-magnitude floods by utilising freely available Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission digital elevation model, available topographical maps and sparse network of river gauging stations. A 110 km reach of the lower Damodar River in eastern India was taken as the study area since it suffers from chronic floods caused by water release from upstream dams during intense monsoon storm events. The uncertainty in model outputs, which is likely to increase with coarse data inputs, was quantified in a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation framework to demonstrate the level of confidence that one can have on such flood routing approaches. Validation results with an extreme flood event of 2009 reveal an encouraging index of agreement of 0.77 with observed records, while most of the observed time series records of a 2007 major flood were found to be within 95 % upper and lower uncertainty bounds of the modelled outcomes.     

全国七大流域水文设计成果修订中若干关键技术问题探讨

为准确反映目前流域径流、洪水的实际情况,水利部组织完成了七大流域的水文设计成果修订工作。介绍了七大流域水文设计成果修订概况,总结分析了径流和洪水系列一致性处理、设计水文成果计算方法、成果合理性分析、修订成果应用等若干关键问题。重点阐述了洪水和径流系列的还原计算和考虑下垫面变化条件下的一致性修订问题,并对下一步修订成果的应用和研究重点提出了建议。