新一代中尺度预报模式（WRF）国内应用进展

随着中尺度大气模式的不断发展,新一代中尺度天气研究和预报模式WRF因其完全开放、可移植性强、更新快等特点在国内外得到了广泛应用。从物理参数化方案研究,实时个例模拟研究及与中尺度大气模式MM5的对比研究3个方面介绍近10年来WRF模式在国内的发展和应用概况,阐明WRF模式在中尺度模拟中的普适性和优越性,展望WRF模式在国...     

Climatological Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Simulated by CWRF Regional Climate Model

Based on the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Medium-Term Weather Forecast Center from 1979 to 2016 and the ERSSTv4 sea surface temperature data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the regional climate model CWRF was used to simulate the climate characteristics in East Asia. The results show that the CWRF model can well reproduce the average characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation, including the location and intensity of the low-level continental cold high pressure and variation characteristics of wind field in high and low levels. The occurrence area and frequency of the north wind in the simulation and the reanalysis data were further calculated and compared. It is shown that they are basically consistent. The distribution of air temperature and precipitation over China are well represented by the model. The water vapor transport is also in good agreement with the reanalysis data. The water vapor from the Bay of Bengal plays a vital role in the precipitation over South China. The simulation results of apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink show that the model can well simulate the thermal difference between the East Asian continent and the adjacent sea area. The analysis results indicate that CWRF model has the ability to simulate the main characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon.     

Progress in Lightning Forecast by Using Numerical Weather Models and Model Outputs

Lightning can threaten human and equipment safety. An indicator of sever convective weather, it plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The intensive studies have advanced the lightning forecast in the mesoscale weather models and its application in global climate models. There are three methods to forecast lightning by using numerical weather models: Numerical diagnosis prediction based on synoptic background filed statistical relations; Flash rate parameterization developed with the relationship between dynamical, microphysical and electrification processes, and The numerical weather model coupled with the explicit electrification and lightning parameterization schemes. In this paper, the research progress in lightning forecast with three above-mentioned methods were reviewed, and the future research issues on lightning forecast were also discussed.     

RegCM3模式在西北地区的应用研究Ⅱ:区域选择及参数化方案的敏感性

通过数值模拟方法,研究了降水对区域尺度、积云对流参数化等的敏感性.结果表明:由于较小区域尺度的模式内部场和大尺度分析场激发的外强迫之间有更强的束缚,这种束缚使得内外强迫更容易达到一致.小区域尺度模拟的降水型比大的区域尺度的模拟更好,但同时,大的区域尺度消弱了由于模式侧边界效应产生的虚假动力效应,模拟的降水在量值上更加接近于观测值.因此,进行区域气候模拟时,须根据需要对模式区域进行仔细的选择.结果同时表明,由于Grell方案倾向于模拟更多的对流降水,因此Kuo-Anthes方案对西北地区降水型和量值的模拟比Grell方案更接近于实际.由于地形对于降水的重要意义,在复杂地形下进行区域气候模拟时有必要在模式中仔细描述地形.     

Research and Application Progress of DRAINMOD Model

Establishing an effective hydrological model is important for guiding the design of small-scale drainage systems. The simulation principle and the sensitivity of key parameters of DRAINMOD model were summarized from four aspects:Hydrological characteristics, nitrogen transport, salt transport and model cooperation. The research application progresses of DRAINMOD model and its coupled model at home and abroad were systematically reviewed, and the limitations and development trends of the model were discussed. It is pointed out that DRAINMOD model has good simulation performance in the fields of agricultural drainage, nitrogen removal and stain reduction. In the simulation of cold area or urban stormwater regulation, domestic research needs to reference from foreign research results. The research suggests that the key research directions of DRAINMOD model could be summarized as the following aspects:\mathrm{①}Simulating the migration of phosphorus, organic micro-pollutants and heavy metal elements and their impacts on soil and crops; \mathrm{②}Mechanism research on the freezing-thawing of snow and application in cold regions; \mathrm{③}Application in the construction of urban stormwater regulation facilities.     

50 a来我国干湿气候界线的空间变化分析

采用干燥度指数为干湿气候区的划分标准, 通过近50 a来年降水量干湿气候界线与干燥度干湿气候界线变动对比分析, 结果表明: 在气候变暖, 降水区域差异性显著的情况下, 我国干旱/半干旱分界线与半干旱/湿润分界线也表现出显著的区域差异性, 且具有"U型"分布特征. 在东北北部, 250 mm年雨量线为干旱/半干旱分界线, 450 mm年雨量线为半干旱/湿润分界线, 半干旱气候向西退缩, 范围缩小; 在东北南部、华北区与河套地区, 300 mm年雨量线为干旱/半干旱分界线, 700 mm年雨量线作为半干旱/湿润分界线, 干旱气候与半干旱气候向东南方向扩展, 空间范围在扩大, 成为"U型"分布的凸出部位; 在西南区与河套以西的西北东部, 250 mm年雨量线为干旱/半干旱分界线, 500 mm年雨量线为半干旱/湿润分界线, 干旱半干旱气候变化不大. 决定我国干湿气候界线空间变化的主要因素是由西太平洋副热带高压位置与强度导致的东南季风、孟加拉弯暖流所导致的西南季风以及西风环流等综合作用的降水量的区域差异性.     

RegCM3模式在西北地区的应用研究I:对极端干旱事件的模拟

为了检验区域气候模式RegCM3在西北地区的模拟能力,对2001年夏季西北地区极端干旱事件进行了模拟.结果表明:模式能很好地再现西北地区主要的环流特征和温度及降水的变化情况,主要的偏差在于高原上低压中心的模拟偏低,对西北东部对流层低层位势高度的模拟偏高.区域平均的温度模拟存在着1~3℃的冷偏差,偏差产生的原因与地表净辐射的负偏差有关.月降水量模拟远远偏大,最小的百分比偏差也达到了30%.模拟结果同时表明,由于受模式初始场的影响,6月降水和气温的模拟效果最差.RegCM3的模拟中还存在着许多问题,必须开展进一步的工作来提高模式的模拟效果,减少偏差.     

SWAT模型在粮食产量预测中的应用

以新乡县为研究对象,基于SWAT模型构建了该区域的分布式水文模型,并对影响模型的重要参数进行了率定和验证。结果表明,对比运用SWAT模型模拟得到粮食产量与实际粮食产量,其相对误差的绝对值大部分在10%以内,相关系数为0.84,Nash-Suttcliffe确定性系数为0.7,该模型可以较准确的模拟粮食产量,并能为该区域的粮食安全、水资源合理配置、水环境等方面的规划提供科学依据。     

试论中国陆相油气侧向源——碰撞造山成岩成矿模式的拓展和运用

笔者根据我国陆相盆地富油、海相地层盆油、“盆小油量大”、油气与金属－非金属矿床伴生等特点，提出油气成藏物质侧向源的观点，依据碰撞造山成岩成矿与流体作用模式（CPMF）分析盆山转变过程中流体产生，运移，有机－无机分离和富集的机制，建立了盆山转换过程流体作用与油气侧向源模式。从油气田富集金属元素，造山带金属矿床成矿流体含烃类等有机组分，盆地沉积所堆积的有机质随盆山转换而形成油气，现代油气盆地与造山带金属矿集区空间耦合等4个方面论证了油气成藏物质侧向源的客观性和流体运移成藏模式的科学性。讨论了中国陆相油气藏的形成和分布规律，提出了今后油气勘查的方法。     

过去千年气候变化的数值模拟研究进展

在阐述千年气候变化研究意义的基础上,围绕着如何利用气候系统模式来对过去千年的气候变化进行归因模拟、以理解其中自然和人为因素的作用问题,总结和评述了国际上相关研究进展,进一步归纳了千年气候变化数值模拟中亟待解决的科学问题,重点包括千年气候演变中自然变率特征时段(即中世纪暖期和小冰期)与人类活动影响时段(即20世纪气候变暖)的气候差别,在中世纪暖期、小冰期和20世纪气候变暖这3个特征时段上,自然变化和人类活动影响的作用与机制比较、中国过去千年气候演变的模拟等,随后,扼要介绍了国家自然科学基金重大项目"中国地区树轮及千年气候变化研究"之课题"中国千年气候变化数值模拟与机理研究"的主要研究内容.     

粘土矿物在气候环境变化研究中的应用进展

在古环境和古气候的重建中,粘土矿物和碳-氧同位素、孢粉、树轮、冰芯等代用指标一样具有同等重要的地位。在没有地质构造运动影响时,气候是影响粘土矿物形成的主要因素,沉积物中的粘土矿物可用来分析古气候和古环境。粘土矿物及其组合可以独立或作为主要指标反映气候和环境变化,并已应用于高分辨率的晚第四纪地层的气候环境研究中。粘土矿物在很短的时间内也会发生明显地变化,不仅可以反映千年-百年尺度的气候环境变化,而且也可以反映几十年尺度的古气候环境变化过程。粘土矿物与其它指标对同一气候环境响应的相位差有待深入研究。不同的半定量分析方法测量出的同一剖面中粘土矿物的含量变化趋势和特征具有一致性。     

东亚区域能量和水分循环对我国极端气候影响研究的一些初步进展

介绍了2009年项目全球变暖背景下东亚能量和水分循环变异及其对我国极端气候的影响的主要研究目标和内容,着重叙述了项目实施以来的主要科研进展,包括西北敦煌和临泽区陆气交换加强观测试验、我国极端气候的变化分析和模拟研究以及气候预测新方法和新系统的研制等方面.最后概要介绍了项目未来几年的主要研究工作计划.     

基于通量模型的珠江三角洲经济区土壤重金属地球化学累积预测预警研究

珠江三角洲经济区是中国最富庶的地区之一,人类生产、生活活动对环境影响突出。在区域尺度,基于普遍性、区域性输入—输出因素通量模型,估算了不同土地利用方式下土壤重金属的年净通量,进而开展土壤重金属地球化学环境预测预警。预警主要通过由土壤重金属空间分布与其概率空间分布相结合的概率克里金法模型获得的因子污染概率进行。预警因子浓度阈值取自土壤环境质量国标标准二级标准。分析显示,研究区水田土壤的生态地球化学环境重警因素主要来自Cd,Hg,Ni,Cr,旱地土壤重警因素主要来自Cd,Hg,Ni,园地土壤重警因素主要来自As,Cr和Ni。如果不改变现在的发展方式,到2025年,水田土壤生态地球化学环境重警区域有江门市的蓬江区、江海区、新会区、开平市、鹤山市,整个中山市,广州的南沙区、番禺区,肇庆市的鼎湖区、端州区、高要市,以及珠海的斗门区。旱地重警区域主要为广州的番禺、南沙,白云区、黄埔区、罗岗区及花都区,佛山的高明、南海、顺德、禅城区,肇庆的四会,中山的小揽、古镇、三角、东升,珠海的斗门、金湾等,以及江门的市区、新会市、开平市和台山市。园地重警区域有广州的南沙、番禺区、花都区,惠州惠东县的北部等,珠海的斗门、金湾和坦洲,佛山的顺德区、南海区、禅城区、三水区等地。     

CMIP研究计划的进展及其在中国地区的检验和应用前景

由世界气候研究计划(WCRP)推动制定的CMIP计划,是一整套耦合大气环流气候模式的比较计划.该计划旨在通过比较模式的模拟能力来评价模式的好坏,促进气候模式的发展;同时也为生态、水文、社会经济诸学科在全球变化背景下预估未来环境变化提供可靠的科学依据.CMIP计划从AMIP开始,经历了CMIP1、CMIP2、CMIP3几个阶段的发展,并已为模式研究提供了迄今为止时间最长、内容最为广泛的模式资料库.尽管模式的模拟结果仍不可避免的存在一些不足,但世界各国纷纷利用该资料库进行模式发展以及与气候变化相关的多学科研究,为预估未来的环境变化提供了不可替代的科学依据.对其作了简要回顾,并对其在中国地区存在的问题和潜在应用前景作了简要论述.     

Progress in the Research on the Impact of Wind Farms on Climate and Environment

Wind power has become one of the fastest growing renewable energy. With the large-scale deployment of wind farms in the world, people have started to pay attention to the impact of wind farms on the ecological environment and climate. This paper summarized the impact of wind farms on climate and ecological environment by investigating relevant literature: In the areas of wind farms, on the one hand, the set-up of wind turbines changes original aerodynamic roughness height and strengthens the dragging of the land surface against turbulence, directly affecting the turbulent motion of the boundary layer, resulting in the changes of intensity and pattern of material energy and water vapor exchange between land surface and near-surface atmosphere, further affecting the atmospheric circulation and climate. On the other hand, wind turbines convert the majority of the wind kinetic energy into electric energy, which produces the wake effect of the wind turbine. The budget patterns and spatial and temporal distribution of large-scale kinetic energy in the boundary layer are changed correspondingly, generating changes in various fluxes (heat flux, water vapor flux, etc.) in the atmosphere, which affect temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. Generally, the warming or cooling effect of wind farms on the near-surface is related to the stability of atmosphere. However, simulations in the global climate model showed that the average impact of wind farms on global climate is small, much smaller than the expected changes in greenhouse gas emissions and the interannual changes in natural climate.Wind power emits almost no carbon dioxide and pollutants. Compared with other traditional energy sources, it reduces water consumption but may generate some negative ecological impacts such as animal habitats, bird collisions, and noise, vision impact. However, some measures can be taken to mitigate these adverse effects.     

植物挥发性有机物的气候与环境效应研究进展

植物挥发性有机物(Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds,BVOCs)是大气中挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)的主要组分,具有重要的气候与环境效应。在梳理和总结既有研究成果的基础上,立足于BVOCs的大气化学过程,阐述了BVOCs不同组分的化学反应过程及其在大气臭氧(O3)和二次有机气溶胶(SOA)污染形成中的作用,指出了BVOCs在O_3和SOA污染形成中的重要性,以及BVOCs影响地球气候的2种主要途径:1通过形成SOA以气溶胶的形式影响地球大气辐射平衡;2参与地球碳循环,影响CH_4和CO等温室气体的寿命。进而,分别总结了BVOCs通过上述2个途径对地球气候影响的研究成果;阐述了BVOCs观测技术的现状与排放量估算模型的发展历程,分析了模型的优缺点与模型间的传承关系及其与气候系统模式耦合的现状。同时展望了BVOCs气候与环境效应亟需深入研究的问题,包括BVOCs氧化机制、产物的理化性质、耦合BVOCs排放及大气化学过程的地球系统模式研制等。     

干旱半干旱地区水文预报模型研究及应用--以洮河流域为例

根据水系统理论模型的原理和方法，利用洮河流域水特征在面上分布的差异和产流、汇流到出口断面的时间必须同步的两个基本条件，对洮河流域进行了概化、分区，建立了流域水预报模型，经对历史资料进行拟合和1996—2000年资料试验预报的结果表明，该模型具有结构简单、操作方便，实用性强，预报精度高的特点，在干旱半干旱地区具有推广应用的前景。     

A Review on the Research and Application of AquaCrop Model

This article described the fundamental principles and the progress of study and application of AquaCrop model, and especially introduced the application of AquaCrop model. The application of AquaCrop in irrigation management, cropping system and the future climate scenario has achieved good results. The problems that should be paid attention to in the application of AquaCrop model were summarized. It was pointedout that most of the researches in China concentrated on single field scale; Many studies focused mostly on the calibration and verification; And the applicability of the model parameters in China remained to be further verified; The performance of Aquacrop model would be affected under severe water stress conditions.This article proposed several suggestions for future development,with a view to AquaCrop model playing a guiding role in the future of agricultural production practices.     

始新世大洋环流模拟的模式依赖性

随着模式的复杂化和多元化发展, 国际上不仅组织了现代气候模拟的模式比较计划, 也开展了古气候模拟的比较计划。在模式比较计划中, 如何有效处理模式间的差异和剔除模式依赖性已成为重要问题。本项研究基于国际深时多模式比较计划(DeepMIP)中的始新世大洋环流模拟结果, 选取pCO₂倍增试验、模式参数化、古地理边界条件这3个案例, 深入分析模式依赖性如何影响古气候模拟结果和模式之间差异性, 归纳和总结古气候模拟研究中模式依赖性产生的可能原因。结果显示, 部分模式的关键变量对驱动因子响应过于敏感、模式参数化方案过于简单、模式中对古地理边界条件表达的欠准确性均可导致模式依赖性的产生以及模式之间显著差异。这表明在分析数值模式结果时, 需要参考多模式结果, 并特别关注模拟结果变化的各个环节, 从而减少模式依赖性的干扰, 增加模拟结果的准确性, 以便于更加准确认识气候环境演变过程。

     

Advances in the Research of Impact of Decadal Solar Cycle on Modern Climate

Role of solar activity on modern climate change, particularly in the decadal scale is an important scientific issue. This paper reviews the recent observation of decadal solar signal in earth’s climate, with focus on the mechanism of solar radiation, ultraviolet radiation and cosmic rays on climate system ,and its validation. The paper points out that the assessment of uncertainty in observations, amplification process of the climate system, as well as possible future impact of solar extreme events are challenges in the present study. Finally, the keys of breakthrough are pointed, to provide a reference for future research.