Progress and Prospect of Statistics and Assessment of Large-scale Natural Disaster Damage and Losses

In June 2014, the "Statistics System for the Damage and Loss of Large-scale Natural Disasters" (SSDLLND) was issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Office of National Disaster Reduction Committee, which marked that the statistics and assessment of China's catastrophic natural disaster damage and losses formally entered a new stage of institutionalization. On the basis of analyzing the five major international disaster damage and loss assessment systems, including HAZUS-MH, ECLAC, DaLA, EMA-DLA and PDNA, the differences between the “SSDLLND” of China and five major international systems were compared from the statistics and assessment contents and indicators. Combined with the statistics and assessment practices of China’s large-scale disaster damage and losses and the characteristics of international systems in recent years, the future development of the SSDLLND were proposed in three aspects: Enriching and improving the framework of damage and loss statistics content, stepwise improvement of disaster impact assessment methods (such as the ecological capital loss assessment, tourism industry loss assessment due to the disasters, etc.), and improving indicators and parameters of loss statistics. The study has an important practical significance for improving the statistics and assessment system of the damage and loss of major natural disasters and better serving the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction decision-making.     

中国特别重大自然灾害损失统计的最新进展——《特别重大自然灾害损失统计制度》解析

以《特别重大自然灾害损失统计制度》(简称《统计制度》)主要执笔人的视角,详细阐述了制度的主要内容、蕴含的科学问题和未来研究方向。《统计制度》报表和指标设计在与现有国家标准保持一致、历经汶川地震等多次重特大灾害实践检验完善、充分吸收相关行业部门意见和建议、适用于多灾种与灾害链损失统计、实用于灾后恢复重建规划编制等方面均体现出其权威性与最新性,《统计制度》具备科学性、综合性、实用性和动态性等特征。《统计制度》在推进特别重大自然灾害损失综合评估、启发涉灾行业部门开展专项深入研究、引领地方建立相关制度等方面具有极大潜力。     

Regional disaster risk evaluation of China based on the universal risk model

A comprehensive understanding and scientific evaluation of natural disasters risk is not only the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation, but also the urgent needs of the economic and social sustainable development. Disaster risk evaluation index system in accordance with Chinese reality was constructed, which contains 5 second-class indicators and 28 third-class indicators; moreover, the universal risk evaluation model was designed combined with nonlinear damage evaluation method; then, the disaster risk of China’s 31 provinces was evaluated, as well as the urban risk ranking and risk map of 31 provinces were presented. The evaluation results can make us see the urban risk situation clearly and intuitively, which helps the related department to clearly focus on their work, as well as provides theoretical guidance for the national and local disaster prevention and mitigation planning.     

九寨沟地震生态敏感区评估与道路重建方案论证

九寨沟7.0级地震诱发大量地质灾害对九寨沟景区景观、生态和基础设施造成了较大破坏,景区公路沿线灾害频繁,公路受损严重,多处中断,其中五花海与熊猫海之间的老虎嘴路段因地形地质条件极其复杂,受损最为严重。在九寨沟生态极其敏感区进行恢复重建等工程活动中,仅靠地灾评估无法满足工程方案评价的需要,同时须考虑工程活动、地灾和生态之间的相互影响。本文首次结合地灾风险评估,建立了生态敏感区的生态风险评估标准,在对九寨沟老虎嘴路段联合进行地灾评估和生态风险评估的基础上,对该路段道路恢复重建方案进行了评价论证,最终确定道路恢复重建方案。     

Groundwater overexploitation and soil subsidence monitoring on Recife plain (Brazil)

Facing natural disasters is a priority challenge for cities, exacerbated by increases in urban population and climate change. Improving the resilience of cities is a critical need for the international community and especially for territories exposed to multiple risks, such as Chile. Although disasters are always tragic, the recovery and reconstruction post-disaster may provide a unique opportunity to prevent future suffering, enhancing the resilience of local communities. This paper presents the analysis of two Chilean reconstruction programmes applied in Mehuin and Dichato, after the earthquake and tsunami of 22 May 1960 and 27 February 2010, respectively. In both cases, reconstruction programmes were supported by the Chilean Government, but using different approaches: one focused on providing housing for people injured in the earthquake, while the other also included urban amenities and services. This article proposes an urban morphology analysis framework; in addition, it presents the assessment of the two case studies before and after a disaster, thus evaluating their resilience. By comparing urban morphology resilience pre- and post-disaster, a discussion about the effectiveness of two reconstruction approaches is presented. Finally, conclusions and recommendations to better integrate resilience into urban planning are proposed, with the aim of opening the discussion about how to make cities more resilient to natural disasters.     

中国城市主要自然灾害风险评价研究

本文依据灾害系统理论和中国自然灾害数据库,构建了反映城市承灾体的综合城市化水平（CL）指标,并在此基础上得到城市脆弱性水平指数。考虑对城市具有结构性破坏和易于造成交通灾情的主要灾种,即水灾、地震、滑坡—泥石流、台风、沙尘暴,构建了反映城市主要致灾因子的综合自然灾害强度（QC）指标,并得到城市综合自然灾害强度指数。据此,在定性分析的基础上,通过半定量计算,将中国城市主要自然灾害风险划分为高风险、较高风险、中等风险、较低风险、低风险5个等级,编制了中国城市自然灾害风险评价图,并对灾害链的综合风险评价作了进一步的探讨。     

云南姚安2009年7月9日Ms 6.0级地震震源过程和灾害特点

通过对构造、震源机制解、前震、余震和地震调查记录的全面分析,总结了地震震源物理过程,认为2009年云南姚安Ms6.0级地震是2000年Ms6.5级地震过程的延续,是2000年地震的10km深度余震层北边缘应力集中导致岩石“粉碎性”破裂产生的。根据及时的实地调查并结合有关文献记载,认为这次地震的震害比2000年Ms6.5级地震的严重,很重要的原因是这次地震震源浅且以水平晃动为主,地震灾害主要是地震引起的地面变形和房屋破坏,这2个方面都与地质环境密切相关,房屋破坏还与房屋结构及地基条件密切相关,房屋破坏具有方向性。灾后恢复重建应尽量避免本次地震及余震震中构成的矩形范围,要加强农村建房的地质灾害危险性评估工作,加强地基勘查和地基处理工作,提高建筑质量,加强抗震设防,注意进一步查找和治理建筑区和建筑物内隐藏的灾害。     

"5.12"震后区域地质灾害危险性评价研究——以青川、平武县为例

四川省"5.12"地震影响区,诱发了大童滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害,给人民生命财产造成了重大损失.震后要相当长的余震期,加之降雨大,地质灾害还有进一步恶化的趋势.运用地面调查方法很难满足要求,尤其是很难满足时效性,结合研究区地质背景特征和多源遥感数据解译结果,确定地质灾害评价的指标体系,综合运用数学方法、GIS技术,...     

新疆阿克苏地区城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究

塔里木盆地是我国最大的半封闭型内陆盆地, 干旱、大风、沙尘暴、洪水以及地震、雪灾等自然灾害频繁.为了提高塔里木盆地城市应对自然灾害的能力, 以阿克苏地区为例, 在广泛借鉴国内外灾害脆弱性评价的指标体系与评价模型的基础上, 以多灾种复合情况为背景, 构建塔里木盆地自然灾害脆弱性评价指标体系, 运用模糊综合评价法进行脆弱性评价, 并对各指标进行对比分析.结果表明: 阿克苏市、新和县、阿瓦提县的高脆弱度值最高, 分别为0.48、0.36及0.40, 属于高脆弱度; 温宿县、沙雅县的中脆弱度值较高, 分别0.24和0.26, 属于中脆弱度; 库车县、拜城县、乌什县、柯坪县的低脆弱度值较高, 分别为0.48、0.45、0.36及0.35, 属于低脆弱度.根据各县市自然灾害脆弱性评价结果, 结合区域特点, 提出了防灾抗灾的对策建议, 对塔里木盆地城市降低脆弱性、减轻自然灾害影响有一定借鉴意义.     

云南姚安2009年7月9日Ms 6.0级地震震源过程和灾害特点

通过对构造、震源机制解、前震、余震和地震调查记录的全面分析,总结了地震震源物理过程,认为2009年云南姚安Ms6.0级地震是2000年Ms6.5级地震过程的延续,是2000年地震的10km深度余震层北边缘应力集中导致岩石＂粉碎性＂破裂产生的。根据及时的实地调查并结合有关文献记载,认为这次地震的震害比2000年Ms6.5级地震的严重,很重要的原因是这次地震震源浅且以水平晃动为主,地震灾害主要是地震引起的地面变形和房屋破坏,这2个方面都与地质环境密切相关,房屋破坏还与房屋结构及地基条件密切相关,房屋破坏具有方向性。灾后恢复重建应尽量避免本次地震及余震震中构成的矩形范围,要加强农村建房的地质灾害危险性评估工作,加强地基勘查和地基处理工作,提高建筑质量,加强抗震设防,注意进一步查找和治理建筑区和建筑物内隐藏的灾害。     

Meta-synthesis pattern of post-disaster recovery and reconstruction: based on actual investigation on 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

A devastating Ms8.0 earthquake struck Wenchuan on May 12, 2008, a historical county in Sichuan Province, southwest China, which affected more than half of China. This article makes a comparative study on the pre-earthquake prevention and post-earthquake reconstruction of 14 world-famous earthquakes in the last 100 years, generalizes the various problems in the process of recovery and reconstruction and analyzes the reasons for the enormous damage caused by these earthquakes. Through theoretical research and field investigation on post-Wenchuan earthquake recovery and reconstruction, the meta-synthesis pattern has been summarized and developed. Its ideological foundation is meta-synthesis methodology, concrete expression is Wuli–Shili–Renli three-dimensional approach, and practical realization using an integrated framework. Taking post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction as a complicated systematic project, from the vertical perspective, the whole process can be roughly divided into the phases of transitional recovery and comprehensive reconstruction. While from the horizontal perspective, each phase should have its own support systems. From an investigation of the systematic planning and comprehensive implementation, it can be concluded that post-Wenchuan earthquake recovery and reconstruction has made remarkable achievements over the past 3 years. Since disasters continue to threaten humanity around the world, especially climate-induced extreme weather events, other countries could formulate applicable integrated programs for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction, taking the Wenchuan experience as a reference.     

汶川地震灾区地质环境演化过程与后重建灾害防治措施

汶川地震发生在地质环境脆弱的山区,震后内外地质营力加速了灾区地质环境变迁,在变迁过程中,会出现不同的地质作用和地质灾害。本文通过研究灾区地貌变化、地表破坏、山体震裂、水文地质条件改变、地质灾害发育特征等地质环境现状,分析震后斜坡演化过程、地表地质环境变迁过程、外界因素的影响、崩滑流地质灾害转化关系,总结了地质环境变迁过程中地质灾害的发育分布特征并提出后重建阶段地质灾害防治措施:(1)震后地质环境的变迁加快,各种地表斜坡地质环境破坏演化对外界因素处于高度敏感时期。(2)地震及其余震的反复冲击破坏,外界荷载的瞬间叠加,未来数十年内,地质灾害处于高度频发、多发、突发时期。(3)后重建阶段,应加强地质灾害调查评价,注重特殊时期和重要地段的灾害防治,采取调查评价+群测群防+监测预警+避让搬迁+工程处治等多种措施组合防治震后地质灾害。     

三峡库区巴东县大型涉水滑坡工程治理效果评价

三峡库区大型涉水滑坡的工程治理效果,已经成为水库能否长期按要求正常运营的关键问题。在统计分析三峡库区二期、三期地质灾害防治工程特点的基础上,以库区巴东县15个典型已治理大型涉水滑坡为研究对象,汇总、分析了其工程防治方案,总结了大型涉水滑坡灾害防治工程措施以抗滑桩工程、护坡工程和排水工程为主的技术特点,并根据多次实际调查结果指出巴东县已治理大型涉水滑坡普遍存在的宏观变形问题。在此基础上,结合工程治理流程、现场调查结果,考虑后期运营时可能发生变化的重要影响因素,采用层次分析法,建立了一个兼具时效性和预见性的多层次、多指标的综合评价体系,并基于综合评价值设定了评价标准,对工程治理效果进行分级。最后,以巴东县XL01滑坡的工程治理效果评价为实例,检验此方法的实用性和有效性,并对巴东县典型已治理大型涉水滑坡的工程治理效果进行评价,结合实际调查结果,指出巴东县大型涉水滑坡工程治理效果良好,但仍存在一些问题。     

地震次生地质灾害风险评估集对态势分析

5．12四川汶川8级强震引发了大量次生地质灾害,加剧了灾情并严重影响抗震救灾。地震次生地质灾害受多重因素制约,其孕育与致灾过程具有不确定性。利用集对分析原理与方法,对地震次生地质灾害进行同异反态势分析,拟定了风险评估的集对分析同一度、差异度、对立度等指标体系的构建原则与赋值标准,对承灾体系统的不确定性及其作用作了刻画与分析,建立了不同风险分区代表性的集对分析联系度表达式,为地震灾害研究提供了可资借鉴的新思路和技术方法。     

岷县漳县地震灾后重建场地黄土震害预测

通过对取自2013年岷县漳县Ms6.6地震影响区8个灾后重建安置点的黄土进行室内动、静三轴试验,研究了极震区2个灾后重建场地黄土的动、静力学特性,分析了地震影响区内3个灾后重建安置场地的黄土斜坡稳定性和5个场地黄土的震陷性;并结合安置点的地形地貌特点,对灾后重建场地潜在黄土地震地质灾害进行了预测。结果表明:极震区黄土在静力作用下具有明显的应力强化特性,在循环动荷载作用下具有刚度迅速衰减和粘滞性急剧增强的特征;MX-2和MX-3重建场地的斜坡在地震作用下存在失稳的可能;Ⅷ度以上地震作用下,MX-1、ZX-1、LT-1和LX-1场地存在产生不同破坏等级震陷灾害的风险;Ⅷ度以上地震作用下MX-1场地的黄土可产生液化,存在导致山体液化滑坡、泥流以及建构筑物地基失稳和不均匀沉降等地震灾害的风险。     

Proposal of a National Mitigation Strategy Against Earthquakes in Turkey

While laboratory and analytical studies can provide valuable information about earthquake hazard mitigation, the most effective educator is the impact of a full-scale earthquake on a full-scale city. The recent earthquakes in Turkey showed that the governmental as well as individual attitudes towards earthquakes did not represent proportionate responses to the risk levels concerned. Turkey had weaknesses in preparing, planning, mitigating and responding to disasters in spite of the known seismic vulnerability of the country. Many steps have been taken after 1999 earthquakes in Turkey, however, the preparations largely concentrate on the response and recovery phases and a fundamental step to reform the current disaster management system and steps to rehabilitate the vulnerable building stock has not been undertaken until today. This would involve changing the present laws and regulations and de-centralising the disaster management system. The aim of this paper is to propose a national mitigation strategy for Turkey for a time-frame of 10 years. The model proposed is a very comprehensive model for earthquake risk reduction in Turkey and within this context, the legislative and technical aspects of mitigation will be discussed in detail. Strategies for mitigating and retrofitting the existing building stock will also be proposed.     

宕昌县城关镇而信滑坡风险评价方法探讨与实践

甘肃省地质环境脆弱,地质灾害频发,是我国地质灾害最为严重的省份之一。面对如此严峻的地质灾害防灾形势,地质灾害风险评价已成为热门学科,是防灾减灾的一项有力的非工程措施。针对区域地质灾害风险评价方法和理论研究较多,形成了较为系统的技术流程,而对于单体地质灾害风险评价的研究相对较少。本次以宕昌县城关镇而信滑坡为例,利用已有单体地质灾害风险评价理论体系,阐述了大比例尺下的单体滑坡灾害的风险评价过程,得出了相应受险区的风险等级。     

崩塌滑坡地质灾害风险排序方法研究

我国地质灾害具有点多面广的分布特点,而地质灾害风险管控人力和能力有限,因此需要开展地质灾害风险排序工作,筛选出优先管控的地质灾害隐患点,确保地质灾害风险管控对策实施的针对性和高效性。地质灾害风险排序的实质是运用定量化风险评价计算出每处隐患点的风险值,然后根据风险值开展排序工作。目前定量化风险评价模型多用于单个地质灾害点风险评价,并未应用于大范围地质灾害风险排序工作,且模型较为复杂,推广应用较难。在分析崩塌、滑坡地质灾害与其环境因素间的响应关系及规律的基础上,提取崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的主控环境因子与诱发因子,联合人口、物质、资源等易损性因子建立地质灾害风险评价指标体系;基于岩石工程系统相互作用矩阵与专家打分法确定各级地质灾害风险评价指标因子权重,构建地质灾害风险评分体系;并根据风险评价定义,提出了能够快速定量化的简易地质灾害风险计算模型。以贵州省98处地质灾害隐患点为例,开展模型应用验证,风险排序结果与灾害管理机构主观认识的实际风险一致,验证了本模型的合理性与有效性,提高了地质灾害风险管控能力与效率。     

自然灾害灾情评估研究与实践进展

自然灾害灾情评估是科学开展灾害管理工作的基础。灾情评估以单次灾害过程的灾前预评估、灾中应急评估、灾后综合评估以及区域灾情评估为主要内容,基于历史灾情统计资料的评估方法、基于承灾体易损性的评估方法、现场抽样调查统计方法、遥感图像或航片识别法、基层统计上报方法、经济学方法等是灾情评估的主要方法。灾情评估的目标从对灾情的估算和统计扩展到对灾情大小的分级,评估内容上逐步重视灾害的社会经济影响评估,评估方法上注重多种方法的综合应用,以及建立灾情评估系统是灾情评估研究与应用的主要发展方向。国内外研究和实践成果在减灾工作中的实际应用亟待加强,迫切需要形成包括对单次灾害过程的灾前预评估、灾中应急评估、灾后综合评估以及区域灾情综合评估在内的自然灾害灾情评估的内容体系、评估指标体系、评估标准体系和评估方法体系。     

公路崩塌灾害等级划分初步研究

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