鲜水河断裂带古构造残余应力场对大地震的控制

以岩体正交异性弹性理论为基础,用X射线法,在鲜水河断裂带测区沿7条测线,测量了岩体三维残余应力,绘成区域残余应力等值线图、主应力线图及其应变能密度等值线图,探讨了其对带内大地震的控制作用     

鲜水河断裂带大震复发机制和时空分布原因

岩石接触面在高温高围压下经过几天便烧结起来而有很高但低于原岩的剪切强度。烧结面与主压应力方向夹角大于55—65°时,便不再断裂而沿其它方向剪断。实验最低温压相当地壳10km深,这应是地壳大断裂的上部裂面与下部烧结层的界限深度,受力后便向下延裂,在下部形成震源。这可能是鲜水河断裂带震源在10—25km深重复发生的原因。由带内大震机制解P轴方向与地球自转速率变化趋势的关系、区域残余应力场水平主压应力分布方向与断裂带走向的关系,讨论了带内大震活动时段的原因。由带内裂面烧结条件、残余和现今应力高值区、岩体低强度区及储存弹性应变能高值区的分布,研究了带内大震空间分布原因。     

郯庐断裂带中段全新世活断层的特征滑动行为与特征地震

郯庐断裂带中段全新世活断层由３个独立的破裂段组成。从各破裂段的运动性质、位移分布看，断层的运动属特征地震型滑动。地震活动以强震活动为主，强震具有周期性原地重复发生的特点，且其强度基本相同；中强地震缺失或很少发生；ｂ值在高震级范围内具低ｂ值的非线性关系。这些特点正是特征地震的典型表现．根据郯庐断裂带中段活断层全新世以来的活动特点看，未来该区仍然以特征地震方式活动．按郯庐带的强震复发间隔和各段的最新一次活动时代推算，未来一段时期内新沂－宿迁段复发大震的可能性较大，安丘段次之，莒县－郯城段复发大震的可能性则很小。     

RUPTURE CHARACTERISTICS OF LATE QUATERNARY STRONG EARTHQUAKES ON THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE XIAOJIANG FAULT ZONE

The Xiaojiang fault zone is located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, the boundary faults of Sichuan-Yunnan block and South China block. The largest historical earthquake in Yunnan Province, with magnitude 8 occurred on the western branch of the Xiaojiang Fault in Songming County, 1833. Research on the Late Quaternary surface deformation and strong earthquake rupture behavior on the Xiaojiang Fault is crucial to understand the future seismic risk of the fault zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan region, even crucial for the study of tectonic evolution of the southeastern margin of Tibetan plateau. We have some new understanding through several large trenches excavated on the western branch of the Xiaojiang fault zone. We excavated a large trench at Caohaizi and identified six paleoseismic events, named U through Z from the oldest to the youngest. Ages of these six events are constrained at 40000-36300BC, 35400-24800BC, 9500BC-500AD, 390-720AD, 1120-1620AD and 1750AD-present. The Ganhaizi trench revealed three paleoearthquakes, named GHZ-E1 to GHZ-E3 from the oldest to the youngest. Ages of the three events are constrained at 3300BC-400AD, 770-1120AD, 1460AD-present. The Dafendi trench revealed three paleoearthquakes, named E1 to E3 from the oldest to the youngest, and their ages are constrained at 22300-19600BC, 18820-18400BC, and 18250-present. Caohaizi and Ganhaizi trenches are excavated on the western branch of the Xiaojiang Fault, the distance between them is 400m. We constrained four late Holocene paleoearthquakes with progressive constraining method, which are respectively at 500-720AD, 770-1120AD, AD 1460-1620 and 1833AD, with an average recurrence interval of 370~440a. Large earthquake recurrence in the late Holocene is less than the recurrence interval of~900a as proposed in the previous studies. Thus, the seismic hazard on the Xiaojiang Fault should be reevaluated. We excavated a large trench at Dafendi, about 30km away south of Caohaizi trench. Combining with previous paleoseismological research, it is found that the western branch of Xiaojiang Fault was likely to be dominated by segmented rupturing in the period from late of Late Pleistocene to early and middle Holocene, while it was characterized by large earthquakes clustering and whole segment rupturing since late Holocene.     

PALEOSEISMIC RECORDS OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES ON THE CROSS-BASIN FAULT IN THE SALT LAKE PULL-APART BASIN AND CASCADE RUPTURE EVENTS ON THE HAIYUAN FAULT

Cascade rupture events often occur along large strike-slip fault zone.The 1920 AD M 8¹/₂ earthquake ruptured all 3 segments of the Haiyuan Fault,and the Salt Lake pull-apart basin is the boundary between the west and middle segment of the fault.The data of trenching and drilling reveal 7 events occurring since last stage of late Pleistocene,and the two youngest events are associated with the historical records of 1092 AD (possibly) and 1920 AD respectively.These events are all large earthquakes with magnitude M>8,and the recurrence of them is characterized by earthquake clusters alternating with a single event.Now it is in the latest cluster which may last about 1000 years.Comparison of the paleoseismic sequence of this study and previous results reveals that the cross-basin fault in the Salt Lake pull-apart basin does not always rupture when cascade rupture events occur along the Haiyuan Fault,and likely ruptures only when the magnitude of the events is large (maybe M>8).Though there are many advantages in paleoseismic study in pull-apart basin,we should avoid getting the paleoseismic history of major strike-slip fault zones only depending on the rupture records of inner faults in pull-apart basins with large scale (maybe a width more than 3km).     

STUDY ON DYNAMIC CHANGE OF GRAVITY FIELD IN XIANSHUIHE FAULT ZONE AND THEIR RELATION TO THE OCCURRENCE OF MS ≥ 5.0 EARTHQUAKES

Xianshuihe Fault, a main strong earthquake activity belt in southwest China, begins from Ganzi in the northwest, passes through Luhuo, Daofu, and Kangding, and then extents along the Dadu River valley. The fault is divided into two parts at Shimian, one part turns to south and converses to Anninghe Fault extending further to south, the other part, continuing to extend to southeast, cutting through Xiaoxiangling and then changing to Daliangshan Faults in the north of the Yuexi Basin, has the length of about 400km. Since 1700AD, there have happened 22 earthquakes larger than magnitude 6.0 and 8 earthquakes larger than magnitude 7.0. In this paper, we systematically collated and computed the gravity repetition measurement data along the Xianshuihe fault zone since 1988, and by referring to the anomaly index of gravity field of the predecessor achievements, analyzed the spatial-temporal variation of the regional gravity field and the relation to the occurrence of ≥ M_S5.0 earthquakes. The mechanism of the regional gravity changes is further studied, and also the implication of strong earthquake risk because of the dynamic variation of gravity field in the near future is discussed.The results show that:1)The mobile gravity observation has the ability to detect crustal activity and M_S ≥ 5.0 earthquake events. 2)There is definite correspondence between interannual gravitational field change and the 8 earthquakes among the 13 M_S ≥ 5.0 earthquakes occurring in the surveying area since 1988, which can be determined according to the change of interannual gravitational field. Three M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes occurred 3~4 years after the abnormal image was developed, 4 earthquakes that occurred in the region of no data available were not determined. 3)A significant feature of the spatial-temporal variation of the regional gravity is a north-south run-through image before 2004, and characterized by the alternatively positive or negative variation in different year, the earthquakes of M_S ≥ 5.0 occurring in this period were not distributed along the fault. Gravity variation magnitude indicates that there were two similar crustal material movement waves before 2004, corresponding to the course of earthquake space-time distribution from strong to weak in the study area. After 2010, the variation image shows that the local positive and negative zones are concurrent within a year, different from the image before 2004, and earthquakes of M_S ≥ 5.0 basically occurred on the fault. It is believed that the variation of gravity field since 1988 and the seismic distribution fit with the geodynamic mode of strong and weak stages of the northeast motion of Indian plate. According to the conclusion we can try to optimize gravity anomaly index. After the Kangding earthquake in 2014, the north segment of Moxi Fault was still subject to negative high value changes till 2017 and then the gravity variation was further developed to a four quadrant distribution image. Based on the analysis of this paper and the previous variation trend of gravity field, we believe that the north segment of Moxi Fault has the background of medium-long term, strong or large earthquake risk.     

鲜水河断裂带的现今水平形变及构造动态

据鲜水河断裂带水平测距的新成果,讨论该带现今构造运动的动态特征。在分析水平形变的基础上,联系表层构造形变和区域背景,探讨地块沿断裂带运动的模式。认为该带的现今运动主要表现为断裂带两侧地块往东南的同向不等速滑动,其地表形变效应则与左旋走滑相一     

THE HOLOCENE SEISMIC EVIDENCE ON SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE RED RIVER FAULT ZONE

Nine earthquakes with M≥6 have stricken the northern segment of the Red River fault zone since the historical records, including the 1652 Midu M7 earthquake and the 1925 Dali M7 earthquake. However, there have been no earthquake records of M≥6 on the middle and southern segments of the Red River Fault, since 886 AD. Is the Red River fault zone, as a boundary fault, a fault zone where there will be not big earthquake in the future or a seismogenic structure for large earthquake with long recurrence intervals?This problem puzzles the geologists for a long time. Through indoor careful interpretation of high resolution remote sensing images, and in combination with detailed field geological and geomorphic survey, we found a series of fault troughs along the section of Gasha-Yaojie on the southern segment of the Red River fault zone, the length of the Gasha-Yaojie section is over ten kilometers. At the same time, paleoseismic information and radiocarbon dating result analysis on the multiple trenches show that there exists geological evidence of seismic activity during the Holocene in the southern segment of the Red River fault zone.     

鲜水河断裂带在虾拉沱附近的现今活动特征

本文利用虾拉沱跨断层测量资料,通过必要的数学处理,分析了鲜水河断裂带在该处的总体活动趋势和年周期变化,研究了断层活动在主破裂带及其两侧的分布情况,提出了一个该处断层活动模型     

大地震重复特征与平均重复间隔的取值问题

对延怀盆地及海原断裂古地震的详细研究表明,大地震的重复行为具有多样性。特征地震是大多数断裂活动的行为特征,但特征地震存在分级性,大地震的重复时间间隔存在分阶段性,以及断裂的相互作用会影响大地震的复发序列。因此,当大地震重复行为出现时间上的分阶段性,或特征地震分级现象导致不同强度的古地震间隔时间有明显差别时,用确定性或时间相依的概率方法评价大地震的危险性,需要分阶段或分级计算不同间隔阶段的平均值     

鲜水河断裂带炉霍段的水平运动及地震的重复性研究

本文讨论了鲜水河活动断裂带炉霍段的水平断错、古地震遗迹与地震重复间隔等问题。晚更新世以来断裂的平均滑动速率为13毫米/年。全新世中期以来大震的重复间隔时间小于600年     

鲜水河断裂带地震活动特征及强震发生随时间增长概率

作者等仔细分析了鲜水河断裂带从１７２５年到现在的地震资料，并利用乌莫洛夫Ｔ─Ｓ、Ｍ为参数的作图法及强震发生随时间增长概率，绘制了地震活动图件及地震发生概率曲线以及Ｍ─Ｔ图和鲜水河断裂应变释放曲线。根据这些资料可以清楚地看出鲜水河断裂带自１７２５年到现在可分为两个大的活动周期，其中６．０级以上地震有由康定依次向甘孜迁移的特点。在每一个大的地震活动周期中，地震基本上两次重复由康定向甘孜迁移的过程，而且较强地震多发生在第二次迁移过程中，１９８２年甘孜地震标志着断裂带在第二幕地震活动高潮中，中强震已经完成了最后一次由断裂带东南端向西北端迁移的过程。同时考虑到断裂带应变释放曲线的特征，估计鲜水河断裂带目前已进入新的平静阶段。前两个大的活动周期之间，平静了近一个世纪。按历史上地震定向迁移规律，估计在新的活动期地震仍将从康定方向开始，逐步向甘孜发展。     

鲜水河断裂带的断错地貌及其地震学意义

断层的近代位错必将在地貌形态上留下深刻的印记,因而凭借断错地貌现象有可能得到关于活断层上地震活动性的重要信息。鲜水河断裂带上的断错地貌现象表明,断层以间歇性的地震滑动为特征,而且服从于大小相当的地震在原地重复发生的特征地震模式。断错水系的演化图象则进一步提供了在一定时段内,同一地点滑动速率基本稳定的线索。于是,可以把断错地貌的研究作为地震活动性研究的重要手段     

鲜水河断裂西北段的断层泥特征及其地震地质意义

对鲜水河断裂的断层泥样品进行原样的结构、构造和碎砾的显微构造、刻蚀形貌结构的观测统计,断层泥的粒度分析和分形研究,认为,断裂处于强烈的定向应力场作用之下,其运动方式是以粘滑运动为主,且晚更新世和全新世时期断裂仍有活动。从断层泥的粒度分布和分形分析可将断层分为：甘孜－格篓、格篓－恰叫、恰叫－乾宁３段,这与前人的地形变分析的分段结果相一致     

1668年郯城8．5级地震断裂的全新世滑动速率、古地震和强震复发周期

本文根据野外考察、实测和开挖资料，研究了１６６８年郯城８．５级地震断裂的水平和垂直位移及古地震标志和证据、全新世位移分布和滑动速率、古地震遗迹、古地震期次、强震复发周期以及地震破裂模式。研究结果表明，沿１６６８年郯城８．５级地震断裂上的全新世位移分布与１６６８年郯城地震破裂位移分布具有良好的同步性和分级特征。破裂位移和滑动速率在空间上是变化的，水平滑动速率在１．７～２．８毫米／年范围内变化，垂直位移速率在０．２～０．５毫米／年范围内波动，水平位移量与垂直位移量比为６～８倍。沿郯城地震断裂全新世发生了４次强震事件，８级大震具有准周期重复特征，郯城地震断裂上发生的地震拟合了特征地震模式。本文归纳总结出来的鉴别断裂水平和垂直位移及古地震事件的标志和准则，对活断层和古地震的深入研究有一定的借鉴意义。     

河套断陷带主要活动断裂最新地表破裂事件与历史大地震

对于历史记录的公元849年大地震的发震构造尚存在一定争议,公元前7年大地震是否发生在河套断陷带,也没有得到确认。通过影像解译、野外地质地貌调查和探槽开挖,结合14C和单颗粒OSL测年,利用构造地貌分析及古地震手段,对大青山山前断裂、乌拉山山前断裂及狼山山前断裂的最新破裂事件进行了对比研究。为了尽可能降低古地震定年的不确定性,采取了序列采样、重点层位多采样等措施。结合以往研究成果认为,大青山山前断裂应为公元849年大地震的发震构造,而狼山山前断裂最近1次地震破裂事件可能与公元前7年大地震有关。     

鲜水河断裂带断层间相互作用的触震与缓震效应

探讨了断层间相互作用产生的同震库仑应力改变及对地震的触发与延缓效应，并以鲜水河断裂带不同断裂段时间上连续发生的4次MS6.0以上地震为例，计算和分析了每次地震发生后，在周围其它断裂上产生的同震库仑应力改变及其对后续地震的触发，以及1973年炉霍MS7.6地震和1981年道孚MS6.9地震发生后，在其周围最易破坏失稳的微破裂上产生的同震库仑应力改变及对余震活动的影响．在其它条件保持不变的情况下，将这4次地震的累积触震与缓震效应加以定量考虑，对鲜水河断裂带各断裂段的地震潜势进行了重新计算，并与已有预测结果进行对比分析，检验和评估了鲜水河断裂带断层间相互作用触震与缓震效应的重要性．结果表明:鲜水河断裂带每次地震都发生于受其先前发生的地震影响而产生同震库仑应力增加的断裂段上，不同断层间相互作用的触震和缓震效应导致地震复发概率的改变可高达30.5％以上， 主震后的余震大多发生于同震库仑应力增加较高的微破裂上．      

中条山北麓断裂中南段全新世地震事件的初步研究

通过对中条山北麓断裂进行探槽研究,揭露了全新世以来,断裂中段和南段的3次古地震事件,包括1次发生在8 570~8 010a BP、贯通断裂中段和南段的8级以上特大地震,以及4 800~6 010a BP和2 110~320a BP发生的2次7级左右的大地震,地震复发间隔约为3 500a。研究表明,中条山北麓断裂的南段和中段在全新世发生过多次活动,活动性较强。     

NEW EVIDENCES OF HOLOCENE ACTIVITY IN THE JIANGSU SEGMENT OF ANQIU-JUXIAN FAULT OF THE TANLU FAULT ZONE

Anqiu-Juxian Fault is an important fault in the Tanlu fault zone, with the largest seismic risk, the most recent activity date and the most obvious surface traces. It is also the seismogenic fault of the Tancheng M8 1/2 earthquake in 1668. There are many different views about the southern termination location of surface rupture of the Tancheng earthquake and the Holocene activity in Jiangsu segment of this fault. Research on the latest activity time of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault, particularly the termination location of surface rupture of the Tancheng earthquake, is of great significance to the assessment of its earthquake potential and seismic risk. Based on trench excavation on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault, we discuss the time and characteristics of its latest activity. Multiple geological sections from southern Maling Mountain to Chonggang Mountain indicate that there was an ancient seismic event occurring in Holocene on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault. We suggest the time of the latest seismic event is about(4.853±0.012)~(2.92±0.3)ka BP by dating results. The latest activity is characterized by thrust strike-slip faulting, with the maximum displacement of 1m. Combined with the fault rupture characteristics of each section, it is inferred that only one large-scale paleo-earthquake event occurred on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault since the Holocene. The upper parts of the fault are covered by horizontal sand layers, not only on the trench in the west of Chonggang mountain but also on the trench in Hehuan Road in Suqian city, which indicates that the main part of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault was probably not the surface rupture zone of the 1668 Tancheng M8 1/2 earthquake. In short, the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault has experienced many paleo-earthquake events since the late Pleistocene, with obvious activity during the Holocene. The seismic activities of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault have the characteristics of large magnitude and low frequency. The Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault has the deep tectonic and seismic-geological backgrounds of big earthquakes generation and should be highly valued by scientists.     

郯庐断裂带莒县胡家孟晏地震破裂带的发现

郯庐断裂带是中国东部最主要的一条活动断裂带。在该断裂带中部,沂沭断裂东地堑的潍坊—嘉山段中发育了1条长360km的全新世活动断裂带(F5),在该全新世断裂带的北段和中段分别发生了公元70年的安丘地震和公元1668年的郯城地震。2003年底我们考察沭河断裂带时,在莒县境内发现了1条长约7km的地震破裂带,作为活动断层应该归属于F5断裂带,但其是一条独立的地震破裂段还是归属于1668年郯城8.5级地震破裂带有待于进一步的研究。尽管如此,探槽揭示出的上覆未经破坏的地层的14C年代表明,该破裂带在(2140±190)aBP以来没有过活动,因此我们认为其作为1条独立破裂段的可能性较大