Study About Ocean Eddy Effect on Strong Convection in Local Atmosphere over the Kuroshio Extension Region

The Kuroshio Extension （KE） is the key area where the water heats the atmosphere in the northwestern Pacific Ocean in winter. Previous studies show that the active eddies in the KE area can affect sea surface temperature and thus sea surface winds. The present study reviewed the progress about the influences of the eddies on local atmosphere in recent years. Analysis and comparison were made especially for the achievements from shipboard sounding data, satellite observations and numerical experiments. Based on the geostrophic adaptation theory involved in atmospheric anomalies induced by the eddies, the following new scientific deductions were suggested: Air pressure adjustment mechanism dominated in the atmospheric response to eddies under the conditions of weaker wind speed over the eddies. The influence of eddies was often limited in the atmospheric boundary layer. On the other hand, vertical mixing mechanism played a major role in the response of the atmosphere to warm (cold) eddies when air moved faster over the eddies. Surface wind speed increased (decreased) over the warm (cold) water. Significant wind convergence took place downwind the warm water, and large amount of water vapor was transported also downwind from the warm water surface. The positive feedback between water vapor condensation and rising air forced by the surface convergence provided necessary conditions for the development of strong convection in atmosphere. These deductions will be conducive to further depicting the impact of oceanic eddies on the atmosphere quantitatively.     

海上大气波导研究进展

大气波导是对流层中具有异常大气折射率梯度的大气层,对于评估和预测电磁波传播和海上探测通信系统等具有重要的科学意义和应用价值.以海上发生的大气波导类型为线索总结了与大气波导相关的研究方法.在蒸发波导研究中以相似理论为基础,开发蒸发波导诊断模型为重点,开展区域海域适应性研究;海上悬空波导和表面波导从早期的定性分析到目前精确定量研究过程中,中尺度数值模式逐渐成为极其重要的研究手段,不仅提高了特定天气过程中大气波导模拟预测精度,而且在此基础上开展区域大气波导环境研究,分析其出现规律、气候原因等.针对海上大气波导研究现状,借鉴气象上的手段和技术,开展海上水文气象调查和电波传播实验,结合中尺度数值模式和海气耦合模式,采用同化技术和集合预报等手段,提高海上低空大气波导量化精度.     

El Niño and sea level anomalies: a global perspective

The anomalous weather patterns observed world-wide associated with El Niño are often accompanied by changes in local sea levels. Sea level anomalies are transmitted through various oceanic and atmospheric pathways and data suggest that this effect is currently on the order of tens of centimetres in some areas both within and outside of the equatorial Pacific. Positive sea level anomalies either generated or enhanced by El Niño have been linked to powerful storm waves and coastal flooding.     

南海中尺度涡研究进展

近20年以来,南海环流及中尺度涡的研究得到了国内外海洋学家相当的重视,取得了许多研究成果。随着高度计资料的广泛应用以及涡分辨率数值模式的发展,南海中尺度涡的研究越趋活跃。简要介绍南海大尺度环流的主要工作,并着重分析南海多涡结构观测以及形成机理研究方面的主要进展。     

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Mesoscale Eddies in the Northern South China Sea: Statistics Analysis Based on Altimeter Data

Mesoscale eddies are active and energetic in the South China Sea (SCS), and play an important role in regulating the multi-scale circulation and mass transportation in the region, especially for those long-lived strong eddies. Using AVISO altimeter data and outermost closed contour sea level anomaly method, this study identified and tracked mesoscale eddies in the northern SCS during 2011-2018, and focused on the temporal and spatial characteristics of mesoscale eddies in recent years. Similarly to previous results in this region, statistical results show that about 8.6 anticyclonic eddies and 4.5 cyclonic eddies (lifetime > 28 days) were born per year. Among them, about 1/3 of the total number are strong eddies (lifetime > 45 days), showing relatively strong dynamic characteristics, such as strong Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) and highly nonlinear feature. Statistics also show significant seasonal variability in mesoscale eddies’ birth places, trajectories and distribution of frequency of occurrence. Specifically, anticyclonic eddies mainly form at the north part of Luzon Strait between autumn and winter, and then move southwestward along isobaths. During this period, the largest value of the frequency of occurrence is over 30%. In summer, most of them form in the west off Luzon Island, and then move westward paralleling to latitude lines. In contrast, cyclonic mainly form in the west off Luzon Strait, and then move westward in winter and spring. During this period, the largest value is about 26%. In addition, observation finds that the strong mesoscale eddy pair could generate off the southwest of Taiwan Island. Analysis of the Kuroshio SCS Index (KSI) implies that loop current caused by Kuroshio intrusion is the most important mechanism for the formation of eddy pair.     

关于平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的研究进展

人们传统上认为大气平流层很少能对对流层产生重要影响,但是,最近几年的观测研究表明这种自上而下的影响是显著的和非常重要的,特别地,近几年关于北极涛动的研究极大推动了这一问题的研究进展。这方面的研究发现平流层异常可以对对流层天气系统产生重要影响,也就是冬季平流层北极涛动（AO）的负异常可以诱发中高纬度地区寒潮天气,而AO的正异常则导致中高纬度地区的温暖晴朗天气。由于观测分析表明平流层AO的异常信号总是领先对流层AO异常,一些学者甚至建议冬季北半球平流层的异常信号可以作为预报对流层天气变化的先行指标,并可以把对流层天气预报的时限提高到3个星期以上。综述这一领域在最近几年的研究进展、阐述平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的物理机制和总结各种不同的学术观点,并对将来研究中应注意的问题提出了建议。     

Evolving ideas about the Cretaceous climate and ocean circulation

The Cretaceous is a special episode in the history of the Earth named for a unique rock type, chalk. Chalk is similar to modern deep-sea calcareous ooze and its deposition in epicontinental seas occurred as these areas became an integral part of the ocean. The shelf-break fronts that today separate inshore from open-ocean waters cannot have existed during the Late Cretaceous probably because the higher sea level brought the base of the wind-mixed Ekman layer above the sea floor on the continental margins.A second peculiarity of the Cretaceous is its warm equable climate. Tropical and polar temperatures were warmer than today. Meridional and ocean-continent temperature gradients were lower. The warmer climate was a reflection of higher atmospheric levels of greenhouse gasses, CO₂ and possibly CH₄, reinforced by higher water vapor content in response to the warmer temperatures. Most of the additional energy involved in the meridional heat transport system was transported as latent heat of vaporization of H₂0 by the atmosphere. Poleward heat transport may have been as much as 1 Petawatt (20%) greater than it is today. C₃ plants provided for more efficient energy transport into the interior of the continents.Circulation of the Cretaceous ocean may have been very different from that of today. It is impossible for large areas of the modern ocean to become anoxic, but episodes of local anoxia occurred during the earlier Cretaceous and became regional to global during the middle of the Cretaceous. The present ocean structure depends on constant wind systems, which in turn depend on stability of the atmospheric pressure systems forced by polar ice. During most of the Cretaceous the polar regions were ice free. Without polar ice there were seasonal reversals of the high-latitude atmospheric pressure systems, resulting in disruption of the mid- and high latitude wind systems. Without constant mid-latitude westerly winds, there would be no subtropical and polar fronts in the ocean, no well-developed ocean pycnocline, and no tropical subtropical gyres dominating ocean circulation. Instead the ocean circulation would be accomplished through mesoscale eddies which could carry warmth to the polar regions.Greater knowledge and understanding of the Cretaceous is critical for learning how the climate system operates when one or both polar regions are ice free.     

前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常对中国东部春季极端降水频次的可能影响及预测价值

本文研究了前期冬季北极海冰与中国东部春季极端降水频次的联系及其可能机制,并进一步探讨了海冰异常信号对极端降水的预测价值。结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常与中国东部春季极端降水频次经验正交分解第一模态(EOF1)之间存在密切联系。当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏多时,冬季大气环流呈现出类北大西洋涛动(NAO)正位相的异常分布,并伴随经向的北大西洋三极型海温异常。该海温异常可以从冬季持续到春季,进而激发出从北大西洋到欧亚中纬度的纬向遥相关波列,在东亚地区引起气旋型环流异常。该气旋型环流异常会引起中国东部地区湿度显著增加,上升运动增强,从而为该地区极端降水的发生提供了有利的背景条件。相反,当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏少时,其滞后引起的春季环流异常则不利于中国东部地区极端降水的发生。进一步的交叉检验结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常信号对中国东部春季极端降水具有重要的预测价值。     

Contribution of atmospheric processes to the degradation of air quality: case study (Sohar Industrial Area,Oman)

The impact of the air pollution generated by any industrial activities may be further aggravated if the location of the industrial area is exposed to certain atmospheric characteristics. Under such conditions, the likelihood of accumulation of local air pollution is high. This paper uses two approaches (statistical and numerical simulation) to investigate the contribution of atmospheric processes towards degradation of air quality. A case study of the two approaches was conducted over Sohar Industrial Area in the Sultanate of Oman. Measured wind data were used to account for specific atmospheric characteristics such as stagnation, ventilation, and recirculation using the statistical approach. In the second approach, numerical weather prediction model was used to simulate mesoscale circulation phenomena such as sea breeze and its contribution to the processes affecting the air quality. The study demonstrates that the atmospheric processes appear to contribute substantially to the degradation of air quality in the Sohar Industrial Area. The statistical analysis shows that the atmospheric dilution potential of Sohar Industrial Area is prone to stagnation and recirculation, rather than ventilation. Moreover, model simulation shows that there is a seasonal variation in the contribution of atmospheric processes to the degradation of the air quality at Sohar Industrial Area.     

Progress in Lightning Forecast by Using Numerical Weather Models and Model Outputs

Lightning can threaten human and equipment safety. An indicator of sever convective weather, it plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The intensive studies have advanced the lightning forecast in the mesoscale weather models and its application in global climate models. There are three methods to forecast lightning by using numerical weather models: Numerical diagnosis prediction based on synoptic background filed statistical relations; Flash rate parameterization developed with the relationship between dynamical, microphysical and electrification processes, and The numerical weather model coupled with the explicit electrification and lightning parameterization schemes. In this paper, the research progress in lightning forecast with three above-mentioned methods were reviewed, and the future research issues on lightning forecast were also discussed.     

Mechanism and forecasting method of persistent extreme weather events: review and prospect

Persistent extreme weather is of high disaster causing capability, represents a great threat to the safety of both people and property and results in substantial economic losses. However, the underlying mechanism of such high impact weather remains unclear, and related forecasting methods are quite under studied currently. Based on the comprehensive reviews of the relevant studies about persistent extreme weather, the prediction of such events within the period during 1～2 weeks in advance is believed to be a significant scientific issue. For this scientific problem, the studies of atmospheric low frequency process, the interaction between multi scale systems, the forcing of complicated underlying surface and sea land atmosphere interactions are necessary to be performed. These multi perspective studies will favor the final establishment of the corresponding forecasting theory and method based on the combination of dynamical prediction and statistical predication. It is hoped that the deficiencies in systematic studies about persistent extreme weather may be made up through pertinent studies, which will prolong the time length of forecasting and increase the prediction precision of such high impact events.     

The identification of various types of geochemical stream sediment anomalies in Northern Ireland

A regional geochemical stream sediment survey of part of Northern Ireland led to the recognition of three types of base metal anomaly of exploration interest. These were significant anomalies of both elastic and hydromorphic origin, and non-significant hydromorphic anomalies in several upland areas. The significant anomalies are derived from Pb-Zn-Cu mineralization, whereas the non-significant anomalies are due to the leaching of Zn and other metals from acidic and/or gleyed soils and subsequent concentration in stream channels by coprecipitation with manganese oxides. Significant hydromorphic anomalies can be identified on the basis of abnormal Zn/Mn ratios and significant elastic anomalies on the basis of anomalous Pb contents. It is of the utmost importance to distinguish the dispersion mechanisms. Regional variations in bedrock geochemistry may only be identified when consideration is given to local dispersion mechanisms and account taken of the effects of variations in the surface environment on stream sediment composition. Changes in vegetation and land use may lead to rapid alterations in the nature of the dominant dispersion mechanisms.     

A multiple scale modeling system for coastal hurricane wind damage mitigation

Hurricane wind damage constitutes the largest percentage of catastrophic insured losses in the US. Yet the complicated wind structures and their changes are not fully understood and, thus, have not been considered in current risk catastrophic models. To obtain realistic landfall hurricane surface winds, a large eddy simulation (LES) framework in a weather forecasting mode has been developed from a multiple nested Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model to explicitly simulate a spectrum of scales from large-scale background flow, hurricane vortex, mesoscale organizations, down to fine-scale turbulent eddies in a unified system. The unique WRF-LES enables the high resolution data to be generated in a realistic environment as a hurricane evolves. In this paper, a simulation of the landfalling Hurricane Katrina is presented to demonstrate various features of the WRF-LES. It shows that the localized damaging winds are caused by the large eddy circulations generated in the hurricane boundary layer. With a sufficient computational power, WRF-LES has the potential to be developed into the next generation operational public wind-field model for hurricane wind damage mitigation.     

Sensitivity of MM5 and WRF mesoscale model predictions of surface winds in a typhoon to planetary boundary layer parameterizations

Sea surface winds and coastal winds, which have a significant influence on the ocean environment, are very difficult to predict. Although most planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations have demonstrated the capability to represent many meteorological phenomena, little attention has been paid to the precise prediction of winds at the lowest PBL level. In this study, the ability to simulate sea winds of two widely used mesoscale models, fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) and weather research and forecasting model (WRF), were compared. In addition, PBL sensitivity experiments were performed using Medium-Range Forecasts (MRF), Eta, Blackadar, Yonsei University (YSU), and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 to investigate the optimal PBL parameterizations for predicting sea winds accurately. The horizontal distributions of winds were analyzed to discover the spatial features. The time-series analysis of wind speed from five sensitivity experimental cases was compared by correlation analysis with surface observations. For the verification of sea surface winds, QuikSCAT satellite 10-m daily mean wind data were used in root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias error (BE) analysis. The MRF PBL using MM5 produced relatively smaller wind speeds, whereas YSU and MYJ using WRF produced relatively greater wind speeds. The hourly surface observations revealed increasingly strong winds after 0300 UTC, July 10, with most of the experiments reproducing observations reliably. YSU and MYJ using WRF showed the best agreements with observations. However, MRF using MM5 demonstrated underestimated winds. The conclusions from the correlation analysis and the RMSE and BE analysis were compatible with the above-mentioned results. However, some shortcomings were identified in the improvements of wind prediction. The data assimilation of topographical data and asynoptic observations along coast lines and satellite data in sparsely observed ocean areas should make it possible to improve the accuracy of sea surface wind predictions.     

Projection of lightning over South/South East Asia using CMIP5 models

Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquakes have been reported for centuries. Precursor signals, which include radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes and ground lights near the epicenter, can all be used for earthquake prediction. Anomalous negative signals observed by ground-based atmospheric electric field instruments under fair weather conditions constitute a novel earthquake prediction approach. In theory, the abnormal radiation of heat before an earthquake produces fair weather around the epicenter. To determine the near-epicenter weather conditions prior to an earthquake, 81 global earthquake events with magnitudes of 6 or above from 2008 to 2021 were collected. According to Harrison's fair weather criteria, in 81.48% of all statistical cases, the weather was fair 6 h before the earthquake; in 62.96% of all cases, the weather was fair 24 h before the event. Moreover, most of these cases without fair weather several hours before the earthquake were near the sea. Among the 37 inland earthquakes, 86.49% were preceded by 6 h of fair weather, and 70.27% were preceded by fair weather for 24 h. We conclude that the weather near the epicenter might be fair for several hours before a strong earthquake, especially for inland events.

     

The Surface and Three-dimensional Characteristics of Mesoscale Eddies: A Review

Mesoscale eddies, which are widely found in the oceans, play a vital role in momentum, energy, heat and mass transport. The Euler method for identifying mesoscale eddies using satellite altimeter data was presented in detail, including closed SLA contours, OW numbers, Winding-Angle and flow vector methods. The results show that mesoscale eddies are almost nonlinear and solid-body rotation. The long-lived eddies with lifetimes ≥16 weeks have an average lifetime of 32 weeks and an average propagation distance of 550 km. Their mean amplitude and a speed-based radius scale as defined by the automated procedure are 8 cm and 90 km, respectively. The method combining with SLA and Argo profiles to composite the three-dimensional structure were addressed. Due to the different temperature and salt structure in the various oceans of the world, the eddies in different oceans show different three-dimensional structures, which are influenced by both the generation and local temperature and salinity. Two special types of eddies were introduced from the perspective of generation, evolution and dissipation processes, namely the Loop Current Ring in the Gulf of Mexico and Mediterranean eddy in the Atlantic Ocean. Finally, issues including submesoscale processes, dissipation of eddies and subthermocline eddies were discussed, and some future research directions were proposed.     

The use and performance of mesoscale models over the Indian region for two high-impact events

High-impact mesoscale weather events, occurring in different parts of India in all seasons, lead to major weather- and climate-related disasters. Several research groups and operational weather forecasting centres in India have adopted mesoscale models for research and operational usage. This paper reviews the work done by different groups with respect to two specific events, (1) unprecedented locally heavy rainfall near Mumbai (Santa Cruz) on 26 and 27 July 2005 and (2) the Orissa super-cyclone of 29 and 30 October 1999 from its incipient stage on 24 and 25 October 1999. Considerable variability in the prediction of the intensity and location of mesoscale heavy rainfall, as well as in the intensity and path of the super-cyclone, are found. In order to reduce uncertainty in dynamical prediction, it is necessary that the model dynamics, physics, resolution, boundary conditions and availability of data on land–ocean surface processes are tuned separately to the specific event types, such as heavy monsoon rainfall, tropical cyclone genesis and movement and severe local thunderstorms, as the processes controlling such types of events may require suitable treatments for their proper simulations through appropriate dynamics, physics and resolution.     

陆面过程与天气研究

陆面作为大气运动的下边界,通过动量、热量及物质交换与大气发生复杂的相互作用。陆面过程被认为是影响天气气候的关键过程之一。关于陆面过程对气候的影响已经开展了大量较为深入的研究,相比之下,针对陆面过程对天气的影响研究并没有受到足够的重视。近年来,陆面过程与天气研究也开始受到了越来越多的关注。本文从陆面基本要素、下垫面构成、陆面诱发的局地环流3个方面,回顾了土壤湿度、地形、土地利用、山谷-平原环流等要素和过程对强对流、暴雨、台风、高温热浪等天气事件影响研究的相关进展,以期为今后的研究提供参考。需要指出,尽管此方面的研究已取得了一定进展,但关于陆面过程对天气,尤其是极端(高影响)天气的影响及机制还有待深入研究,进而从陆面过程的角度来理解重要天气形成、发生和发展的机理,从而为数值模式发展和天气预报业务提供更有力的科学支撑。     

Atmospheric boundary layer characteristics during the BOBMEX-Pilot experiment

The atmospheric boundary layer characteristics observed during the BOBMEX-Pilot experiment are reported. Surface meteorological data were acquired continuously through an automatic weather monitoring system and manually every three hours. High resolution radiosondes were launched to obtain the vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere. The study area was convectively active, the SSTs were high, surface air was warm and moist, and the surface air moist static energy was among the highest observed over the tropical oceans. The mean sea air temperature difference was about 1.25‡C and the sea skin temperature was cooler than bucket SST by 0.5‡C. The atmospheric mixed layer was shallow, fluctuated in response to synoptic conditions from 100 m to 900 m with a mean around 500 m.     

Global climate change and human health

Predicted changes in temperature during the next century and the possibility of substantial depletion of stratospheric ozone would represent an unprecedently rapid change in the global environment with enormous effects including important impacts on human health. These are likely to be most obvious in the Third World where some areas can expect an intencification of existing major health hazards: an increased frequency of floods and storms; changes to the availability of food and good quality domestic water supplies and climate-related changes in the ecology of insect vectors for diseases such as malaria. In developed countries significant impacts can be also be anticipated. More frequent episodes of hot weather could be associated with more food poisoning and with increases in deaths from circulatory diseases. These might be offset by lower mortality rates in warmer winters. Exposure to photochemical atmospheric pollution is likely to increase. Stratospheric ozone depletion together with more exposure to sun in warmer weather could accelerate the existing rise in the incidence of skin cancer and increase the risk of cataracts.