China’s tropical cyclone disaster risk source analysis based on the gray density clustering

In recent years, tropical cyclones on the Pacific Northwest have decreased. We cannot infer that tropical cyclones impact China have reduced, because the Pacific Northwest is not homogeneous, and the variation characteristics of tropical cyclones in different sea areas are not clear. This paper uses gray relational density clustering algorithm to cluster tropical cyclone data sets between 1949 and 2008, according to the generated position of tropical cyclones, generated density and the possibility of landing. The Pacific Northwest is divided into different sea areas. Then, we analyze the risk of tropical cyclones generated in these sea areas. The results show that the probability of tropical cyclones landing generated in some sea areas is very high, reached 74 %, but the probability of tropical cyclones landing generated in other sea areas is only 2 %. Tropical cyclones generated in some sea areas are more likely to develop into typhoons, strong typhoons and so on, but the intensity of tropical cyclones generated in other sea areas is lower, there is little risk for China. Finally, according to the climate change stage trends, we divide the period 1949–2008 into three stages and analyze the tropical cyclone risk of each sea areas.     

Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario

Research efforts focused on assessing the potential for changes in tropical cyclone activity in the greenhouse-warmed climate have progressed since the IPCC assessment in 1996. Vulnerability to tropical cyclones becoming more pronounced due to the fastest population growth in tropical coastal regions makes it practically important to explore possible changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming. This paper investigates the tropical cyclone activity over whole globe and also individually over six different ocean basins. The parameters like storm frequency, storm duration, maximum intensity attained and location of formation of storm have been examined over the past 30-year period from 1977 to 2006. Of all, the north Atlantic Ocean shows a significant increasing trend in storm frequency and storm days, especially for intense cyclones. Lifetime of intense tropical cyclones over south Indian Ocean has been increased. The intense cyclonic activity over north Atlantic, south-west Pacific, north and south Indian Ocean has been increased in recent 15 years as compared to previous 15 years, whereas in the east and west-north Pacific it is decreased, instead weak cyclone activity has been increased there. Examination of maximum intensity shows that cyclones are becoming more and more intense over the south Indian Ocean with the highest rate. The study of the change in the cyclogenesis events in the recent 15 years shows more increase in the north Atlantic. The Arabian Sea experiences increase in the cyclogenesis in general, whereas Bay of Bengal witnesses decrease in these events. Shrinking of cyclogenesis region occurs in the east-north Pacific and south-west Pacific, whereas expansion occurs in west-north Pacific. The change in cyclogenesis events and their spatial distribution in association with the meteorological parameters like sea surface temperature (SST), vertical wind shear has been studied for Indian Ocean. The increase in SST and decrease in wind shear correspond to increase in the cyclogenesis events and vice versa for north Indian Ocean; however, for south Indian Ocean, it is not one to one.     

西北地区典型夯土遗址温度时空变化规律研究

温度是露天保存的夯土遗址由病害发育到整体消亡长期过程中的重要影响因素,遗址体内部温度的时空分布以及对环境气温的响应规律则更对其劣化形式与进程具有关键性的控制作用。研究对3处位于西北不同气候分区的典型夯土遗址的四季环境温度及其断面内部温度的日际变化进行实时监测与分析。结果表明遗址断面内部各监测点温度均随环境温度的变化而变化,其环境温度及断面内部监测点日际温度随时间的变化均可分为两个降温阶段和一个升温阶段,夏季与其余季节各温度变化阶段时长存在一定差异;更为重要的是在任何季节的每个温度变化阶段断面的温度变化范围及环境响应速率均具有纵向变化显著于横向变化的规律,而且春季的第2降温阶段的温度变化范围以及响应速率最为显著。     

Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

Changes in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change signals in the seas off Mexico is presented and compared to other regions and the world ocean, and to selected basin scale climatic indices of the North Pacific, the Atlantic and the tropical Pacific variability. We identified eight regions with different exposure to climate variability: In the Pacific, the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with mostly no trend, the Gulf of California with a modest cooling trend during the last 20 to 25 years, the oceanic area with the most intense recent cooling trend, the southern part showing an intense warming trend, and a band of no trend setting the boundary between North-Pacific and tropical-Pacific variability patterns; in the Atlantic, the northeast Gulf of Mexico shows cooling, while the western Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have been warming for more than three decades. Potential interactions with fisheries and coastal sensitive ecosystems are discussed.     

Estimation of maximum seasonal tropical cyclone damage in the Atlantic using climate models

Natural Hazards - There are several different estimates of the observed cyclone damage potential of tropical cyclones based on observations of size, intensity and track. For the analysis of climate...     

古风暴学研究进展

古风暴学是始于20世纪90年代的一门新兴学科，通过研究风暴活动的地质记录和历史文献资料，恢复器测之前几百年至数千年前的热带气旋活动规律。经过十几年的发展，逐渐形成一套包括研究领域、方法、技术与手段等比较完整的理论体系，成为第四纪古气候研究和过去全球变化的重要组成部分。古风暴学研究的替代指标包括：文字记载、特征的风暴事件沉积、海相化石组合、同位素地球化学组成等。这些指标单独使用时都有一定局限性。寻找新的替代指标，并运用多种指标综合分析方法提高古风暴事件的分辨率和可信度，是今后该学科发展的重要方向。已有的研究多侧重于古风暴频数的研究，今后应充分利用现代风暴潮理论的新进展，通过数值模拟与替代指标研究相结合，更准确地恢复古风暴强度。同时，应加强古风暴活动的全球对比研究，以揭示风暴活动与全球气候变化的关系，为在全球不断变暖背景下台风活动的情景预测提供依据。     

近40a来江河源区生态环境变化的气候特征分析

利用月气象资料,对过去40a江河源气候变化特征进行分析,并与全球、全国、青藏高原进行了比较.结果表明:江河源区气温具有增暖趋势,近40a两地年平均气温分别增加约0.8℃和0.7℃,为高原异常变暖区.黄河源区变暖的主要特征是最低气温变暖,日照时数增加;最低、最高气温的显著变暖,以及较黄河源区增加更长的日照时数是长江源区变暖的主要特征.长江源区冬季变暖的作用不是主要的,春季、夏季和秋季的变暖作用比冬季还要大;黄河源区的变暖也并不主要是冬季变暖造成的,秋季变暖的作用与其相当,其它季节的变暖作用也不能忽视.近40a来江河源区降水量略有增加,主要体现在20世纪80年代中后期以来春季与冬季降水量的明显增加,夏季降水量虽然总体上没有明显变化,且局地夏季降水量呈持续减少趋势.与全球、全国以及高原区对比显示,江河源区对全球气候变暖的响应最敏感,变暖首先从长江源和整个高原发端,之后15a.黄河源和全国才进入显著温暖期.黄河源与长江源北部降水量的增加表明,气候变暖有利于高原增加降水量.     

Rapid warming in mid-latitude central Asia for the past 100 years

Surface air temperature variations during the last 100 years (1901–2003) in mid-latitude central Asia were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The results suggest that temperature variations in four major sub-regions, i.e. the eastern monsoonal area, central Asia, the Mongolian Plateau and the Tarim Basin, respectively, are coherent and characterized by a striking warming trend during the last 100 years. The annual mean temperature increasing rates at each sub-region (representative station) are 0.19°C per decade, 0.16°C per decade, 0.23°C per decade and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. The average annual mean temperature increasing rate of the four sub-regions is 0.18°C per decade, with a greater increasing rate in winter (0.21°C per decade). In Asian mid-latitude areas, surface air temperature increased relatively slowly from the 1900s to 1970s, and it has increased rapidly since 1970s. This pattern of temperature variation differs from that in the other areas of China. Notably, there was no obvious warming between the 1920s and 1940s, with temperature fluctuating between warming and cooling trends (e.g. 1920s, 1940s, 1960s, 1980s, 1990s). However, the warming trends are of a greater magnitude and their durations are longer than that of the cooling periods, which leads to an overall warming. The amplitude of temperature variations in the study region is also larger than that in eastern China during different periods.     

The palynological record from Coniacian to lower Campanian continental sequences in the Songliao Basin,northeastern China and its implications for palaeoclimate

A palynological record recovered from successions of Coniacian to early Campanian age (89.1–83.5 Ma) was obtained from the lacustrine sequences of the SK-I south core (SK-Is) in the Songliao Basin, northeastern China. The palynoflora is dominated by bisaccate gymnosperm pollen, followed by spores of pteridophytes, and just minor amounts of angiosperm pollen. Based on the relative abundance of the different spore and pollen taxa through the core, the succession was subdivided into three palynological assemblages. The results indicate two opposite trends for climate change, a minor warming trend (from 89.1 to 85.7 Ma) followed by a rapid cooling trend (85.7–83.5 Ma). The first warming trend reached its maximum at 85.7 Ma, which is inconsistent with results from the marine realm (which instead show a minor cooling trend based on several proxy records). However, the second cooling phase is consistent with global changes from various and abundant palaeoclimate proxies from marine deposits. We interpret the climatic changes within the studied interval (89.1–83.5 Ma) as a consequence of the shifting climate from a hot/super greenhouse to a temperate greenhouse.     

青藏铁路多年冻土区普通路基热状况监测分析

基于现场地温监测数据,选取年平均地温不同的监测断面对青藏铁路普通路基的热状况进行分析,包括多年冻土上限变化及其地温变化、下伏多年冻土温度变化、原天然地表附近热收支等方面. 结果表明：在低温多年冻土区,路基下部多年冻土上限均有所提升,且新近形成的人为上限较为稳定,冷季时负温积累显著;路基下伏多年冻土总体热稳定性较好. 而在高温多年冻土区,左（阳坡）路肩下部多年冻土上限多表现为下降,右（阴坡）路肩下部多年冻土上限有升有降,但是新近形成的上限均温度较高且有进一步升温的趋势;与天然场地地温相比,路基下部多年冻土均出现一定的升温. 尤其在高温极不稳定多年冻土区,天然场地多年冻土自身处于吸热升温状态;路基修筑后,下部多年冻土已经出现了融化夹层及双向退化的情况,路基热稳定性较差. 对于普通路基来说,由于青藏高原强烈的太阳辐射及青藏铁路总体走向原因,普通阴阳坡效应显著,左、右路肩下部多年冻土热稳定性差异较大.     

On the absence of solar evolution‐driven warming through the Phanerozoic

Reconstructed temperatures through the Phanerozoic indicate a gradual cooling or, at best, no significant temperature trend, despite a 4.4% increase in solar heating. It is possible that an underlying warming trend has simply been swamped by ‘noise’ due to significant data‐errors and/or natural fluctuations. Alternatively, the lack of warming may indicate cooling by biological and/or geological processes, which happen to have the right amplitude to cancel the effects of solar warming. This paper demonstrates that the absence of Phanerozoic warming cannot be explained as a warming trend hidden by noise. It also shows that, given widely accepted estimates of climate sensitivity, it cannot be explained as cancellation by negative feedback in the climate system. The Gaia hypothesis, anthropic selection or some other unconventional mechanism may therefore have to be invoked to explain the absence of long‐term warming through the Phanerozoic.     

中国极端气温季节变化对全球变暖减缓的响应分析

利用经过质量控制和均一化处理的中国气象站点1979-2014年逐月最高气温和最低气温资料,对806个无缺测站的数据进行趋势分析和比较,并且计算了各季节对变暖减缓的贡献率,结果表明:中国区域极端气温(最高和最低气温)存在变暖减缓或变冷现象,而不同区域在不同季节对全球变暖减缓的响应程度不同.相比于1979-1999年,2000-2014年极端气温在全国大部分地区春、冬季有明显的变暖减缓或者变冷现象,在长江流域以北大部分地区极端气温在夏季变暖减缓或变冷现象明显,而秋季全国大部分地区最低气温有明显的增暖现象.全国许多地区春季是导致极端气温变暖减缓或变冷的最主要季节,而夏、秋、冬季则是导致部分地区变暖减缓或变冷的主要季节,此外秋季也是导致全国许多地区最低气温变暖的最主要季节.我国大部分地区2000-2014年的变暖减缓或变冷趋势可能受太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)冷位相的调控,而PDO冷位相对最低气温的影响范围更大一些.     

Consistent long-term Holocene warming trend at different elevations in the Altai Mountains in arid central Asia

Recent results indicate contrasting Holocene moisture histories at different elevations in arid central Asia (ACA). However, relatively little is known about Holocene temperature changes at different elevations. Here we report an independently dated peat brGDGTs-based MBT'_5ME record from the Narenxia peatland (NRX) in the southern Altai Mountains. The record suggests a long-term warming trend since ~7.7 cal. kyr bp , with a warmer stage during ~7–5.5 cal. kyr bp , a cold stage during ~5.5–4 cal. kyr bp , and a warming trend over the last ~4 kyr. The long-term warming trend indicated by the NRX MBT'_5ME record is largely consistent with Holocene temperature records from nearby sites covering an altitudinal range of ~1700–4100 m above sea level. This consistent long-term warming trend at different elevations differs from the long-term Holocene drying/wetting trends at high/low elevations of the Altai Mountains. We propose that the warming trend and consequent permafrost thawing at high elevations could have resulted in increased meltwater runoff, which would have contributed to the long-term wetting trend at low elevations. Our findings potentially provide an improved understanding of regional climate change and associated water resource availability, with implications for their possible future status.     

西安城市地温与气温变化初步分析

地下浅层地温和近地表空气温度存在着必然的内在联系,地面温度变化的信息随着时间推移向下传播并叠加到稳态地温场上,因此通过对现今地温剖面的分析可以重建过去地面温度变化的历史。为了研究西安地区地下和地上的温度变化,本文在西安开展了钻孔温度测量,获得了16个钻孔的地温剖面,同时收集整理了西安气象站1951～2010年气温数据。对1951～2010年气温数据进行回归分析得到西安地区年平均气温、年平均最高气温和最低气温增温率分别为3.71 ℃/100a、2.03 ℃/100a和5.14 ℃/100a,均高于全国和全球平均水平,其中1986～2010年间平均气温增温更是显著,达到9.01 ℃/100a。从钻孔测温曲线中筛选出西安城郊6个传导型地温剖面进行分析,结果表明西安地区钻孔温度记录的地面温度变化趋势与气象台记录的气温变化趋势基本吻合。根据利用钻孔温度剖面下段回归分析得到的地表稳态温度和地温梯度以及25年间西安地区平均气温增温率推算得到钻孔理论地温剖面与实测地温数据总体上具有较好的一致性。对实测地温数据的进一步精确拟合分析显示,西安城郊6个选定的钻孔所在区域地面温度变暖分别起始于20年、24年、26年、28年、30年和30年前,对应的地表增温幅度分别为0.4 ℃、0.72 ℃、2.18 ℃、4.2 ℃、2.4 ℃和2.4 ℃。市区和周边郊区钻孔所在区域在增温幅度上存在明显的差异,市区增温强度明显高于郊区,而城郊结合部介于两者之间。     

气候变化对山东降水及极端天气气候事件的影响分析

根据新中国成立以来山东省气温资料进行分析,从温度变化来反映山东气候变暖的趋势;在此基础上根据山东省近60年的水文资料分析气候变化对山东降水及极端天气气候事件的影响。结果表明,60年来山东气候呈变暖趋势,随着气候的变化,山东省年降水量呈减少的趋势,并导致极端天气气候事件出现频率及强度呈增大趋势。     

Identification of clusters in tropical cyclone tracks of North Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclones are a key climate-related hazard in South Asia. Assessment of the risk of cyclone impacts requires a comprehensive characterization of historical cyclone climatology. This study analyzes the tracks of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean. Based on their spatial characteristics, cyclone tracks appear to be grouped into five well-defined clusters. These clusters correspond to distinct regions of cyclonic activity and exhibit differences in characteristics such as genesis location, probability of landfall, duration, and maximum intensity. Some of the identified clusters appear particularly important with regard to impacts because events in these clusters have greater landfall probability and are more intense. The clustering approach is likely to provide useful insights for the characterization of cyclone risk.     

Long-term temperature trends of the Hudson River: A study of the historical data

Water temperature data from the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie from 1908 to the present were acquired. This long-term data set contains (with a few gaps) daily water temperatures at a constant location for the 82-yr period. We hypothesized that water temperatures, because of the dampened variability as compared to air temperatures, would provide a useful record of long-term temperature change. The data were analyzed for statistically significant trends, both annually and monthly for long-term and 10-yr blocks; both warming and cooling trends within all categories were found. The longest significant trend was a 0.12°C per decade increase from about 1920 to 1990. This increase, which was statistically significant for both simple regression and time-series analysis, is within the limits of the suggested rates of change on the global scale. On the other hand, there was no significant trend from the beginning of the record (1908) to the present, due to an apparent dramatic cooling from 1908 to about 1920.     

南极海冰与温度变化关系的统计分析(英)

Temporal-spatial characteristics of Antarctic surface air temperature and sea ice variations have been statistically analyzed. Results show that, during the last 30 years there was an obvious warming trend in Antarctica, but there exists substantial difference in different sectors and different period. The most significant warming trend occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula, about 2-3 times greater than that in the whole east Antarctica. In recent 20 years the correlation between Antarctic mean temperature and mean sea ice area is low and insignificant, but its linear trends are found to be opposite related in each sector, that is, sea ice extent reductions when temperatures are high. The different climate sectors defined by cluster analysis clearly show a close relationship between two parameters on the inter-seasonal time scale. The most sensitive correlation sectors found are from south Atlantic to southwest Pacific ocean.     

Growth of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin – a comparative study

The tropical cyclone Viyaru maintained a unique quasi-uniform intensity during its life span. Despite being in contact with sea surface for >120 hr travelling about 2150 km, the cyclonic storm (CS) intensity, once attained, did not intensify further, hitherto not exhibited by any other system over the Bay of Bengal. On the contrary, the cyclone Phailin over the Bay of Bengal intensified into very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) within about 48 hr from its formation as depression. The system also experienced rapid intensification phase (intensity increased by 30 kts or more during subsequent 24 hours) during its life time and maximum intensity reached up to 115 kts. In this paper, a comparative study is carried out to explore the evolution of the various thermodynamical parameters and possible reasons for such converse features of the two cyclones. Analysis of thermodynamical parameters shows that the development of the lower tropospheric and upper tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) was low and quasi-static during the lifecycle of the cyclone Viyaru. For the cyclone Phailin, there was continuous development of the lower tropospheric and upper tropospheric PV, which attained a very high value during its lifecycle. Also there was poor and fluctuating diabatic heating in the middle and upper troposphere and cooling in the lower troposphere for Viyaru. On the contrary, the diabatic heating was positive from lower to upper troposphere with continuous development and increase up to 6^°C in the upper troposphere. The analyses of cross sections of diabatic heating, PV, and the 1000–500 hPa geopotential metre (gpm) thickness contours indicate that the cyclone Viyaru was vertically tilted (westward) and lacked axisymmetry in its structure and converse features (axisymmetric and vertical) that occurred for the cyclone Phailin. In addition, there was a penetration of dry air in the middle troposphere of Viyaru, whereas high moisture existed in the middle troposphere of Phailin. The vertical wind shear (5–10 ms^?1) near the core of the storm region between 850 and 200 hPa was favourable for both the systems but was higher in the northern region of the cyclone Viyaru. The divergent development of these thermodynamic features conspired to produce converse characteristic of the two cyclones.