部分国家长期温室气体低排放发展战略比较分析

面向21世纪中叶的长期低排放发展战略是继国家自主贡献之后,衡量各国长期减排努力的重要文件。文中针对已向《联合国气候变化框架公约》秘书处正式提交长期低排放发展战略的12个国家,从各国战略的总体结构、主要内容和实施面临的挑战等方面进行了比较分析。研究发现各国长期减排力度存在较大差别,分行业和分气体类型的减排目标分解仍较为初步,战略涉及的中长期减排目标与全球长期温升控制目标之间仍存在较大差距,长期减排政策措施的经济性尚不明确,并且对发展中国家的资金援助与需求间仍存在巨大缺口,这些问题均会严重制约长期低排放战略的后续有效实施。为推动中国长期战略的制订,文中从持续对各国战略跟踪分析、强化“两步走”战略安排下分阶段减排目标和任务分析研判、强化对战略路径特别是薄弱环节的梳理和拓展研究,以及加强对中国跨领域前瞻性相关重大战略问题的深入研究等4个方面提出了政策建议。     

Targeting carbon dioxide removal in the European Union

In principle, many climate policymakers have accepted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s mitigation targets, but they have avoided proposing by whom CDR might be delivered. Given its role in international climate policy, the European Union (EU) might be expected to lead the way. But among EU climate policymakers so far there is little talk on CDR, let alone action. Here we assess how best to ‘target’ CDR to motivate EU policymakers exploring which CDR target strategy may work best to start dealing with CDR on a meaningful scale. A comprehensive CDR approach would focus on delivering the CDR volumes required from the EU by 2100, approximately at least 50 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂, according to global model simulations aiming to keep warming below 2°C. A limited CDR approach would focus on an intermediate target to deliver the CDR needed to reach ‘net zero emissions’ (i.e. the gross negative emissions needed to offset residual positive emissions that are too expensive or even impossible to mitigate). We argue that a comprehensive CDR approach may be too intimidating for EU policymakers. A limited CDR approach that only addresses the necessary steps to reach the (intermediate) target of ‘net zero emissions’ is arguably more achievable, since it is a better match to the existing policy paradigm and would allow for a pragmatic phase-in of CDR while avoiding outright resistance by environmental NGOs and the broader public.

Key policy insights

• Making CDR an integral part of EU climate policy has the potential to significantly reshape the policy landscape.

• Burden sharing considerations would probably play a major role, with comprehensive CDR prolonging the disparity and tensions between progressives and laggards.

• Introducing limited CDR in the context of ‘net zero’ pathways would retain a visible primary focus on decarbonization but acknowledge the need for a significant enhancement of removals via ‘natural’ and/or ‘engineered’ sinks.

• A decarbonization approach that intends to lead to a low level of ‘residual emissions’ (to be tackled by a pragmatic phase-in of CDR) should be the priority of EU climate policy.

     

欧盟减排《责任分担条例》修正案分析与启示

欧盟自1997年起就如何通过市场和行政手段“双轮驱动”控制碳排放总量进行不断探索,并逐步建立了较为成熟的碳排放交易体系及减排责任分担机制,已经取得了良好的减排效果。文中梳理分析《责任分担条例》修正案中关于成员国减排目标更新的内容、目标分配的原则与方法、灵活性机制,归纳了欧盟采用行政手段控制碳排放交易系统未涉及部门的温室气体排放的经验,并对中国如何构建充分考虑市场手段和行政手段的CO₂排放总量控制制度提出政策建议。     

The EU as a frontrunner on greenhouse gas emissions trading: how did it happen and will the EU succeed?

The objective of this paper is first to provide empirical evidence of what can be seen as a rather remarkable change in EU’s position on the use of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading (ET) in climate policy, from the role of a sceptic in the run-up to Kyoto towards more of a frontrunner. The paper argues that there is a synergistic and multilevel mix of explanatory factors for this “U-turn”, including developments at the international, EU, Member State, sub-national, and even down to the personal level. Second, the paper explores and discusses the philosophy behind the Commission’s proposal for a directive on GHG ET. Third, the paper examines the prospects for ‘success’ of a scheme for EU-wide ET using a multifaceted set of metrics. In brief, we argue that output success—the chances for having a directive adopted—hinges on the resolution of two key issues. First, whether the preliminary phase is to be mandatory or voluntary, and second, incompatibilities with domestic ET schemes. Outcome success—steering and cost-effectiveness—will in turn depend on factors like the coverage of the scheme and inclusion of project-based credits, while more long-term political implications hinges on the successful adoption and operation of the scheme.

“The Proposal on emissions trading represents a major innovation for environmental policy in Europe. We are de facto creating a big new market, and we are determined to use market forces to achieve our climate objectives in the most cost-conscious way […]. The emissions trading system will be an important cornerstone in our strategy to reduce emissions in the most cost-effective way”.

Environment Commissioner Margot Wallström.     

河北省贸易隐含二氧化碳排放及其影响因素研究

针对全球气候变化而引发国家间减排责任的争吵,需要各国从生产和消费的角度来认识二氧化碳排放,国家内部区域之间减排责任的分担也应该从生产和消费两个角度加以认识。为此,本文利用投入产出分析方法和EEBT(双边贸易隐含排放)核算方法核算河北省的二氧化碳排放,发现河北省生产型二氧化碳排放远大于其消费型二氧化碳排放,其中国内流出/流入引发的二氧化碳排放量较大。在利用SDA(结构分解分析法)分析影响贸易隐含二氧化碳排放变化因素时,发现行业二氧化碳排放强度变化对隐含二氧化碳排放具有积极影响,而国民经济行业之间技术经济关系的变化对隐含二氧化碳排放具有消极影响。因此,河北省在利用技术手段降低行业二氧化碳排放强度的同时,还要筛选关键性部门加以重点管理。同时,河北省贸易隐含二氧化碳排放及其影响因素变化对国家制定区域减排责任也有较强参考价值。     

Green hope or greenwash? The actions of the European Union at the World Summit on sustainable development

This article examines whether the European Union (EU) could be seen as a normative power at the recent World Summit on Sustainable Development. We explain how the EU operationalised its commitment to the concept of sustainable development before highlighting the impact the EU had on the final summit outcomes. It shows that although in many areas the EU was able to offer leadership, internal policy coherence prevented it fully being able to develop that role and thus fully promoting the norm of sustainable development.     

The promise of carbon capture and storage: evaluating the capture-readiness of new EU fossil fuel power plants

To what degree are recently built and planned power plants in the EU ‘capture-ready’ for carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Survey results show that most recently built fossil fuel power plants have not been designed as capture-ready. For 20 planned coal-fired plants, 13 were said to be capture-ready (65%). For 31 planned gas-fired power plants, only 2 were indicated to be capture-ready (6%). Recently built or planned power plants are expected to cover a large share of fossil fuel capacity by 2030 and thereby have a large impact on the possibility to implement CCS after 2020. It is estimated that around 15–30% of fossil fuel capacity by 2030 can be capture-ready or have CO₂ capture implemented from the start. If CCS is implemented at these plants, 14–28% of baseline CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel power generation in 2030 could be mitigated, equivalent to 220–410 MtCO₂. A key reason indicated by utilities for building a capture-ready plant is (expected) national or EU policies. In addition, financial incentives and expected high CO₂ prices are important. The implementation of a long-term regulatory framework for CCS with clear definitions of ‘capture- readiness’ and policy requirements will be important challenges.     

The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030

China's energy consumption doubled within the first 25 years of economic reforms initiated at the end of the 1970s, and doubled again in the past 5 years. It has resulted of a threefold CO₂ emissions increase since early of 1980s. China's heavy reliance on coal will make it the largest emitter of CO₂ in the world. By combining structural decomposition and input–output analysis we seek to assess the driving forces of China's CO₂ emissions from 1980 to 2030. In our reference scenario, production-related CO₂ emissions will increase another three times by 2030. Household consumption, capital investment and growth in exports will largely drive the increase in CO₂ emissions. Efficiency gains will be partially offset the projected increases in consumption, but our scenarios show that this will not be sufficient if China's consumption patterns converge to current US levels. Relying on efficiency improvements alone will not stabilize China's future emissions. Our scenarios show that even extremely optimistic assumptions of widespread installation of carbon dioxide capture and storage will only slow the increase in CO₂ emissions.     

Measurement and investigation of chamber radical sources in the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE)

It is essential to quantify the background reactivity of smog-chambers, since this might be the major limitation of experiments carried out at low pollutant concentrations typical of the polluted atmosphere. Detailed investigation of three chamber experiments at zero-NO _x in the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE) were carried out by means of rate-of-production analysis and two uncertainty analysis tools: local uncertainty analysis and Monte Carlo simulations with Latin hypercube sampling. The chemical mechanism employed was that for methane plus the inorganic subset of the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.1). Newly installed instruments in EUPHORE allowed the measurement of nitrous acid and formaldehyde at sub-ppb concentrations with high sensitivity. The presence of HONO and HCHO during the experiments could be explained only by processes taking place on the FEP Teflon walls. The HONO production rate can be described by the empirical equation W(HONO)_EUPHORE ^dry = a × j _{NO 2}× exp (− T ₀/T) in the low relative humidity region (RH < 2%, a = 7.3×10²¹ cm⁻³, T ₀ = 8945K), and by the equation W(HONO)_EUPHORE ^humid = W(HONO)_EUPHORE ^dry+ j _{NO 2}× b × RH ^q in the higher relative humidity region (2% < RH < 15%, b = 5.8×10⁸ cm⁻³ and q = 0.36, and RH is the relative humidity in percentages). For HCHO the expression W(HCHO)_EUPHORE = c × j _{NO 2}exp (− T′₀/T) is applicable (c = 3.1×10¹⁷ cm⁻³ and T′₀ = 5686 K). In the 0–15% relative humidity range OH production from HONO generated at the wall is about a factor of two higher than that from the photolysis of 100 ppb ozone. Effect of added NO₂ was found to be consistent with the dark HONO formation rate coefficient of MCMv3.1.